Uptake of pneumococcal vaccines in older Australian adults before and after universal public funding of PCV13.

BACKGROUND: In 2020 Australia changed the funded universal older adult pneumococcal vaccination program from use of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) at age 65 to the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) at age 70 years. We investigated uptake of both PCV13 and PPV23 in older adults before and after the program change. METHODS: We analysed a national dataset of records of patients attending general practices (GPs). We included regular attendees aged 65 or above in 2020. Cumulative uptake of PCV13 and monthly uptake of PPV23 was compared for the two periods before (January 2019 to June 2020) and after (July 2020 to May 2021) the program change on 1 July 2020, by age groups and presence of comorbid conditions. RESULTS: Our study included data from 192,508 patients (mean age in 2020: 75.1 years, 54.2 % female, 46.1 % with at least one comorbidity). Before July 2020, for all adults regardless of underlying comorbidities, the cumulative uptake of PCV13 was < 1 % but by May 2021, eleven months after the program changes, cumulative uptake of PCV13 had increased among those aged 70-79 years (without comorbidity: 16.3 %; with comorbidity: 21.1 %) and 80 + years (without comorbidity: 13.5 %; with comorbidity: 17.7 %), but not among those aged 65-69 years (without comorbidity: 1.3 %; with comorbidity: 3 %). Monthly uptake of PPV23 dropped following the program change across all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in uptake of PCV13 and PPV23 among those aged 70 + years were consistent with program changes. However, PCV13 uptake was still substantially lower in individuals aged 65-69 years overall and in those with comorbidities.

Pneumococcal vaccination and primary care presentations for acute respiratory tract infection and antibiotic prescribing in older adults.

BACKGROUND: While the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) has demonstrated its role in preventing severe pneumococcal disease, its impact on more non-specific conditions like acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) and lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the role of PPV23 in prevention of presentations for ARI and LRTI and related antibiotic prescriptions among older adults in primary care. METHODS: Using a nationwide general practice dataset, we followed a cohort of regularly attending patients aged ≥65 years from 1 January 2014 until 31 December 2018 for presentations for ARI, LRTI, and related antibiotic prescriptions. Associations between PPV23 receipt and each outcome were assessed using a multiple failures survival model to estimate hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and various health measures. RESULTS: A cohort of 75,264 patients aged ≥65 years (mean 75.4, 56% female) in 2014 was followed. The incidence of presentations for ARI, ARI-related antibiotic prescription, LRTI, and LRTI-related antibiotic prescription was 157.6, 76.0, 49.6, and 24.3 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Recent PPV23 vaccine receipt was associated with a small reduction in ARI presentations (adjusted HR vaccinated vs. unvaccinated 0.96; 95%CI 0.94-0.98; p = 0.002); however, there was no reduction in ARI-related antibiotic prescription, LRTI presentation, nor LRTI-related antibiotic prescription (adjusted HR were 0.99[95%CI 0.96-1.03], 1.04[95%CI 0.99-1.09], 1.07[95%CI 1.00-1.14]). CONCLUSION: PPV23 vaccination in older adults may result in a small reduction in the incidence of total ARI presentations in primary care. However, the effect is small and residual confounding cannot be excluded.

Assessing the effects of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on the risk of household transmission during delta variant circulation: a population-based data linkage cohort study.

Background: Data on SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness to reduce transmission of infection in household settings are limited. We examined the effects of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines on Delta variant transmission within households in an infection-naïve population. Methods: This was a population-based data linkage cohort study in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area, New South Wales, Australia based on cases observed in June-November 2021. In households with ≥1 confirmed COVID-19 case, we calculated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) for the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, by vaccination status (unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, fully vaccinated, or waning) and type of vaccines (mRNA or vector-based) received by both index cases and household contacts. Findings: In 20,651 households with a single index case, 18,542 of 72,768 (25%) household contacts tested PCR-positive ≤14 days after their respective index case. Household contacts with partial, full, or waning mRNA vaccination had aORs of 0.46 (95% CI 0.40-0.52), 0.36 (95% CI 0.32-0.41) and 0.64 (95% CI 0.51-0.80) compared to unvaccinated contacts, while for vector vaccines the corresponding aORs were 0.77 (95% CI 0.67-0.89), 0.65 (95% CI 0.55-0.76), and 0.64 (95% CI 0.39-1.05). Full mRNA-vaccination in index cases compared to non-vaccination was associated with aORs between 0.09 and 0.21 depending on the vaccination status of household contacts. Interpretation: Full vaccination of household contacts reduced the odds to acquire infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in household settings by two thirds for mRNA vaccines and by one third for vector vaccines. For index cases, being fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine reduced the odds of onwards transmission by four-fifths compared to unvaccinated index cases. Full vaccination offered stronger protection than partial vaccination, particularly for mRNA vaccines, but with reduced effects when the last vaccination preceded exposure by ≥3 months. Funding: New South Wales Ministry of Health.

The association between influenza vaccination, cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization: A living systematic review and prospective meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The effects of seasonal influenza vaccination on cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes, including among individuals with established CVD, are uncertain. METHODS: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of influenza vaccines compared to no vaccines or placebo for preventing all-cause/CVD mortality or all-cause/CVD hospitalization in the general population and in populations with pre-existing CVD, we conducted a living systematic review (LSR) and prospective meta-analysis (PMA). Published randomized controlled trials (RCT) and observational studies between 1994 and 2023 were searched. PRISMA guidelines were followed in the extraction of study details, and risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane tools. Analyses were stratified by study design and CVD history. Study quality was evaluated using GRADE system. Meta analyses based on random-effects models were performed between July and October 2022. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) for all-cause/CVD mortality and all-cause/CVD hospitalization were main outcomes. RESULTS: Six published RCTs comprising 12,662 participants (mean age, 62 years; 45 % women; 8,797 with pre-existing CVD) and 37 observational studies comprising 6,311,703 participants (mean age, 49 years; 50 % women; 1,189,955 with pre-existing CVD) were included. Only those RCTs judged to be low risk were included in the analyses, and observational studies at anything greater than moderate risk of bias were excluded. In RCTs, influenza vaccine was not significantly associated with lower all-cause mortality (RR, 0.85; 95 %CI, 0.61-1.17), cardiovascular death (RR, 0.80; 95 %CI, 0.60-1.07), or CVD hospitalization (RR, 0.69; 95 %CI, 0.47-1.02). A statistically significant reduction in all-cause hospitalization (RR, 0.86; 95 %CI, 0.76-0.97) was observed. The evidence level was assessed as moderate for all-cause hospitalization, and low for other outcomes. Overall, observational studies suggested a stronger protective association between influenza vaccination and outcomes, except for CVD hospitalization. Based on RCTs, there was no difference in the effects of influenza vaccination on all-cause mortality among the general population compared to those with pre-existing CVD, although the summary point estimate favored benefits only in those with pre-existing CVD. CONCLUSIONS: While observational studies suggest that influenza vaccination may be associated with lower all-cause and CVD mortality and all-cause hospitalization, RCTs reported to date suggest a reduction in the risk of all-cause hospitalization but do not provide clear evidence to support preventive effects on mortality (all-cause or CVD) or CVD hospitalization.

Effectiveness of bivalent COVID-19 boosters against COVID-19 mortality in people aged 65 years and older, Australia, November 2022 to May 2023.

We followed 4,081,257 Australian adults aged ≥ 65 years between November 2022 and May 2023 for COVID-19-specific mortality, when recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages (predominantly XB and XBB) as well as BA.2.75 were circulating. Compared with a COVID-19 booster targeting ancestral SARS-CoV-2 given > 180 days earlier, the relative vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 death of a bivalent (ancestral/BA.1 or ancestral/BA.4-5) booster given 8 to 90 days earlier was 66.0% (95%CI: 57.6 to 72.2%) and that of a monovalent ancestral booster given 8 to 90 days earlier was 44.7% (95%CI: 23.9 to 59.7%).

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination against COVID-19 specific and all-cause mortality in older Australians: a population based study.

Background: Few studies have examined effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against COVID-19 and all-cause mortality across different pandemic periods in 2022. Methods: We used linked whole-of-population data from the 2021 Australian Census, Australian Immunisation Register, death registrations and other national datasets including migration data. Among 3.8 million adults aged 65+ years and >170,000 aged care residents, we used survival analysis to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 specific mortality and all-cause mortality, by vaccine dose and time since receipt, adjusted for age, sex and other factors. We also estimated absolute COVID-19 mortality rates. Findings: From January-May 2022 (Omicron BA.1/2), 3250 COVID-19 deaths occurred; from June-November (Omicron BA.4/5) 3185 COVID-19 deaths occurred. During January-May, VE of a 3rd COVID-19 vaccine dose within 3 months was 93% (95% CI 93-94%) whilst VE of a 2nd dose >6 months since receipt was 34% (26-42%). During June-November, VE of a 4th COVID-19 vaccine dose within 3 months was 84% (82-86%) whilst VE of a 3rd dose >6 months since receipt was 56% (50-62%). VE estimates for aged care residents were similar, but absolute risk reductions were substantially greater. During June-November 2022, for all-cause mortality, VE of a 4th dose within 3 months was 58% (56-59%) whilst VE of a 3rd dose >6 months since receipt was 19% (16-22%). Interpretations: COVID-19 vaccination is highly effective against COVID-19 mortality among older adults although effectiveness wanes with time since the last dose. Our findings emphasise the importance of continuing to administer booster doses, particularly to those at highest risk. Funding: This study was funded by the Health Economics Research Division in the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care.

Bayesian structural time series, an alternative to interrupted time series in the right circumstances.

OBJECTIVES: Compare two approaches to analyzing time series data-interrupted time series with segmented regression (ITS-SR) and Bayesian structural time series using the CausalImpact R package (BSTS-CI)-highlighting advantages, disadvantages, and implementation considerations. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We analyzed electronic health records using each approach to estimate the antibiotic prescribing reduction associated with an educational program delivered to Australian primary care physicians between 2012 and 2017. Two outcomes were considered: antibiotics for upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and antibiotics of specified formulations. RESULTS: For URTI indication prescribing, average monthly prescriptions changes were estimated at -4,550; (95% confidence interval, -5,486 to -3,614) and -4,270; (95% credible interval, -5,934 to -2,626) for ITS-SR and BSTS-CI, respectively. Similarly for specified formulation prescribing, monthly average changes were estimated at -7,923; (95% confidence interval, -15,887 to 40) for ITS-SR and -20,269; (95% credible interval, -25,011 to -15,635) for BSTS-CI. CONCLUSION: Differing results between ITS-SR and BSTS-CI appear driven by divergent explanatory and outcome series trends. The BSTS-CI may be a suitable alternative to ITS-SR only if the explanatory series represent the secular trend of the outcome series before the intervention and are equally affected by exogenous or confounding factors. When appropriately applied, BSTS-CI provides an alternative to ITS with more readily interpretable Bayesian effect estimates.

Coverage and predictors of influenza and pertussis vaccination during pregnancy: a whole of population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory infections including influenza and pertussis are associated with significant morbidity and mortality in mothers and newborns. Vaccination during pregnancy against influenza and pertussis is recommended for all women but data on uptake in Australia is limited. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study in Australia's largest state, New South Wales (NSW), using a Perinatal Data Collection (PDC). Data included demographic, pregnancy, and birth details including pertussis and influenza vaccination during pregnancy for all women giving birth between 01 January 2016 and 31 December 2020. We used descriptive statistics to assess uptake of influenza and pertussis vaccination during pregnancy and Poisson loglinear regression to estimate associations between maternal characteristics and vaccine receipt. RESULTS: During 2016-2020, there were 477,776 births (mean maternal age 32.25 years). In 176,255 (36.9%) births the mother received both vaccines; 202,922 (42.5%) influenza and 315,620 (66.1%) pertussis vaccine. From 2016 to 2020, reported coverage increased from 26.7% to 58.7% for influenza and 43.1% to 78.8% for pertussis, respectively. After adjustment, characteristics associated with lower likelihood of receiving influenza and pertussis vaccination included: younger age (<30 years), being born in Australia/New Zealand, from lower socio-economic strata, having previous pregnancies, being later to first antenatal care, utilising the public hospital care model, smoking, having chronic hypertension and BMI > 25 kg/m2. CONCLUSIONS: While reported coverage of both influenza and pertussis vaccine in birthing women in NSW has increased over time, disparities in coverage exist and they highlight areas where evidence-based interventions to improve maternal vaccination could be targeted.

Comparative effectiveness of four COVID-19 vaccines, BNT162b2 mRNA, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1 nCov-19 and NVX-CoV2373 against SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) infection.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data directly comparing the effectiveness of different COVID-19 vaccines. METHODS: We compared rates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1/2 infection during March to May 2022 in Australian adults who had received one of four COVID-19 vaccines in the last 14-63 days as either a primary course or a booster dose using Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for age and other characteristics. RESULTS: As a primary course, over 2318 person-years and 1033 infections, compared to recipients of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, adjusted hazard ratios for SARS-CoV-2 infection were 1.03 (95%CI 0.82-1.30), 1.19 (0.95-1.49), 1.70 (1.46-1.97) for respectively mRNA-1273, ChAdOx-1 nCov-19 and NVX-CoV2373. For the booster dose, over 154,984 person-years and 93,580 infections the respective adjusted hazard ratios compared to BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine were 1.02 (95%CI 1.00-1.04), 1.20 (1.10-1.32), 1.39 (1.20-1.60). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest relatively higher effectiveness of ancestral strain mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection than viral vector and protein subunit vaccines and provide clinical confirmation of immunological data on differences in COVID-19 vaccine performance.

Incremental effectiveness of 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine against pneumonia hospitalisation among Australian Indigenous children: A record linkage study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) on pneumonia in children is well-documented but data on 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) are lacking. Between 2001 and 2011, Indigenous children in Western Australia (WA) were recommended to receive PPV23 at 18-24 months of age following 3 doses of 7-valent PCV. We evaluated the incremental effectiveness of PPV23 against pneumonia hospitalisation. METHODS: Indigenous children born in WA between 2001 and 2012 who received PCV dose 3 by 12 months of age were followed from 18 to 60 months of age for the first episode of pneumonia hospitalisation (all-cause and 3 subgroups: presumptive pneumococcal, other specified causes, and unspecified). We used Cox regression modelling to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for pneumonia hospitalisation among children who had, versus had not, received PPV23 between 18 and 30 months of age after adjustment for confounders. RESULTS: 11,120 children had 327 first episodes of all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation, with 15 (4.6%) coded as presumptive pneumococcal, 46 (14.1%) as other specified causes and 266 (81.3%) unspecified. No statistically significant reduction in all-cause pneumonia was seen with PPV23 (HR 1.11; 95% CI: 0.87-1.43), but the direction of the association differed for presumptive pneumococcal (HR 0.47; 95% CI: 0.16-1.35) and specified (HR 0.89; 95% CI: 0.49-1.62) from unspecified causes (HR 1.13; 95% CI: 0.86-1.49). During the baseline period before PPV23 vaccination (12-18 months), all-cause pneumonia risk was higher among PPV23-vaccinated than unvaccinated children (RR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.30-2.28). CONCLUSION: In this high-risk population, no statistically significant incremental effect of a PPV23 booster at 18-30 months was observed against hospitalised all-cause pneumonia or the more specific outcome of presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia. Confounding by indication may explain the slight trend towards an increased risk against all-cause pneumonia. Larger studies with better control of confounding are needed to further inform PPV23 vaccination.

ATAGI Targeted Review 2022: Vaccination for prevention of herpes zoster in Australia.

Abstract: In November 2016, herpes zoster (HZ) vaccination for older adults, using the live-attenuated zoster vaccine (Zostavax; ZVL) was added to the Australian National Immunisation Program (NIP) with the aim of reducing morbidity from HZ and its complications, particularly for people at increased risk. Prior to the program, there were on average 5.6 cases of HZ per 1,000 persons annually in Australia, with highest risk of disease in older and in immunocompromised people. The burden of complications of HZ, such as post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), was also highest in older and immunocompromised groups. No formal comprehensive program evaluation has been undertaken since program commencement. This review examined published literature and available vaccine administration data to summarise the evidence and considerations underpinning current use of HZ vaccines and potential future program directions in Australia. There have been modest reductions in the incidence of HZ and its complications since program introduction. However, five years into the program, challenges remain, including suboptimal vaccine coverage and significant safety concerns arising from inadvertent use of ZVL in immunocompromised people, who are contraindicated to receive this vaccine. This reduces opportunities to offset the burden of HZ-related disease. The recombinant subunit zoster vaccine (Shingrix; RZV), first registered in Australia in 2018, became available on the Australian market in June 2021. This vaccine has higher efficacy than ZVL and, as a non-live vaccine, can be used in both immunocompetent and immunocompromised people. RZV has potential to address the unmet needs of at-risk population groups. However, it has not yet demonstrated cost-effectiveness for inclusion as a funded vaccine under the NIP. The Australian HZ vaccination program has had limited effectiveness in meeting its aim in highest risk groups. Future options and challenges anticipated in using vaccination to reduce the burden of HZ and its complications are discussed in this review.

COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake by Infection Status in New South Wales, Australia.

Using linked public health data from Australia to measure uptake of COVID-19 vaccination by infection status, we found coverage considerably lower among infected than uninfected persons for all ages. Increasing uptake of scheduled doses, including among previously infected persons after the recommended postinfection delay, is needed to reduce COVID-19 illness rates.

Regular high-frequency whole blood donation and risk of cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and older blood donors in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Previous mixed findings on the associations between whole blood (WB) donation and risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) may in part reflect inadequate adjustment for the "healthy donor effect" (HDE). METHODS: We used the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study linked with blood donation history and other health-related databases to examine the association between regular, high-frequency WB donation and the risk of CVD. To mitigate the impact of HDE, we used a "5-years qualification period," in which donors must donate at least 1 WB donation in the 1st and 5th year of "qualification period." We then compared the risk of CVD in the years following the "qualification period" between the regular high-frequency WB donors (≥2 WB donation in each qualification year) and others using Cox proportional-hazards models. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders, such as sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health-related variables, and results are reported separately for male and female donors. RESULTS: A total of 2736 male and 2917 female donors were included in the analyses. The median years of follow-up per donor was 5.84 years (Q1-Q3, 5.47-6.23). The rate of CVD hospitalization was 11.20 and 4.50 per 1000 person-years for males and females, respectively. In fully adjusted models, the risk (hazard ratio) of CVD in regular high-frequency donors compared to other donors was 0.93 (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 0.68-1.29) for males and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.49-1.28) for females. CONCLUSIONS: We did not observe a statistically significant reduction of CVD risk in regular, high-frequency WB donors when adjusted for potential confounders.

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Factors Influencing the Effectiveness of Mass Drug Administration to Eliminate Trachoma as a Public Health Problem in Malawi.

PURPOSE: Following a national population-based trachoma survey in Malawi one round of azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) was carried out, with a post-MDA impact survey showing TF prevalence below 5% and considered eliminated as a public health problem. However, active trachoma was still present in over 200 children. We assessed whether water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) factors were associated with ongoing presence of TF in children aged 1-9 years following MDA. METHODS: A secondary analysis was performed on a sub-set of the post-MDA impact survey data for children aged 1-9 years. We used a logistic regression analysis, adjusted for clustering at the household and village level. RESULTS: Among 16,142 children aged 1-9 years, 209 (1.3%) had TF after MDA. Factors associated with a significantly lower odds of TF after MDA were living in a household with a handwashing facility (aOR: 0.37) and living in a household where water for washing is located further away from the home (30 min away aOR: 0.39, p = .034, or more than 1 h away aOR: 0.31, p = .018) compared with water in the yard. CONCLUSION: The inverse association between a domestic handwashing facility and TF is consistent with previous findings, but the association of increasing distance to collect water for washing with a reduced risk of TF was unexpected and may reflect the impact of drought and unmeasured behavioural factors related to water usage. A more comprehensive collection of sociodemographic and WASH factor information in population-based trachoma surveys will provide insight into achieving and maintaining low levels of trachoma.

Associations between severe and notifiable respiratory infections during the first trimester of pregnancy and congenital anomalies at birth: a register-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence regarding the association between acute respiratory infections during pregnancy and congenital anomalies in babies, is limited and conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine the association between acute respiratory infections during the first trimester of pregnancy and congenital anomalies in babies using record linkage. METHODS: We linked a perinatal register to hospitalisation and disease notifications in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) between 2001 to 2016. We quantified the risk of congenital anomalies, identified from the babies' linked hospital record in relation to notifiable respiratory and other infections during pregnancy using generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) adjusted for maternal sociodemographic and other characteristics. RESULTS: Of 1,453,037 birth records identified from the perinatal register between 2001 and 2016, 11,710 (0.81%) mothers were hospitalised for acute respiratory infection, 2850 (0.20%) had influenza and 1011 (0.07%) had high risk infections (a record of cytomegalovirus, rubella, herpes simplex, herpes zoster, toxoplasmosis, syphilis, chickenpox (varicella) and zika) during the pregnancy. During the first trimester, acute respiratory infection, influenza and high-risk infections were reported by 1547 (0.11%), 399 (0.03%) and 129 (0.01%) mothers. There were 15,644 (1.08%) babies reported with major congenital anomalies, 2242 (0.15%) with cleft lip/ plate, 7770 (0.53%) with all major cardiovascular anomalies and 1746 (0.12%) with selected major cardiovascular anomalies. The rate of selected major cardiovascular anomalies was significantly higher if the mother had an acute respiratory infection during the first trimester of pregnancy (AOR 3.64, 95% CI 1.73 to 7.66). The rates of all major congenital anomalies and all major cardiovascular anomalies were also higher if the mother had an acute respiratory infection during the first trimester of pregnancy, however the difference was no statistically significant. Influenza during the first trimester was not associated with major congenital anomalies, selected major cardiovascular anomalies or all major cardiovascular anomalies in this study. CONCLUSION: This large population-based study found severe acute respiratory infection in first trimester of pregnancy was associated with a higher risk of selected major cardiovascular anomalies in babies. These findings support measures to prevent acute respiratory infections in pregnant women including through vaccination.

Does 2x2 airplane passenger contact tracing for infectious respiratory pathogens work? A systematic review of the evidence.

We critically appraised the literature regarding in-flight transmission of a range of respiratory infections to provide an evidence base for public health policies for contact tracing passengers, given the limited pathogen-specific data for SARS-CoV-2 currently available. Using PubMed, Web of Science, and other databases including preprints, we systematically reviewed evidence of in-flight transmission of infectious respiratory illnesses. A meta-analysis was conducted where total numbers of persons on board a specific flight was known, to calculate a pooled Attack Rate (AR) for a range of pathogens. The quality of the evidence provided was assessed using a bias assessment tool developed for in-flight transmission investigations of influenza which was modelled on the PRISMA statement and the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. We identified 103 publications detailing 165 flight investigations. Overall, 43.7% (72/165) of investigations provided evidence for in-flight transmission. H1N1 influenza A virus had the highest reported pooled attack rate per 100 persons (AR = 1.17), followed by SARS-CoV-2 (AR = 0.54) and SARS-CoV (AR = 0.32), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB, AR = 0.25), and measles virus (AR = 0.09). There was high heterogeneity in estimates between studies, except for TB. Of the 72 investigations that provided evidence for in-flight transmission, 27 investigations were assessed as having a high level of evidence, 23 as medium, and 22 as low. One third of the investigations that reported on proximity of cases showed transmission occurring beyond the 2x2 seating area. We suggest that for emerging pathogens, in the absence of pathogen-specific evidence, the 2x2 system should not be used for contact tracing. Instead, alternate contact tracing protocols and close contact definitions for enclosed areas, such as the same cabin on an aircraft or other forms of transport, should be considered as part of a whole of journey approach.

Estimating the excess burden of pertussis disease in Australia within the first year of life, that might have been prevented through timely vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Previous Australian studies have shown that delayed vaccination with each of the three primary doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccines (DTP) is up to 50 % in certain subpopulations. We estimated the excess burden of pertussis that might have been prevented if (i) all primary doses and (ii) each dose was given on time. METHODS: Perinatal, immunization, pertussis notification and death data were probabilistically linked for 1 412 984 infants born in two Australian states in 2000-12. A DTP dose administered >15 days after the recommended age was considered delayed. We used Poisson regression models to compare pertussis notification rates to 1-year of age in infants with ≥1 dose delayed (Aim 1) or any individual dose delayed (Aim 2) versus a propensity weighted counterfactual on-time cohort. RESULTS: Of all infants, 42% had ≥1 delayed DTP dose. We estimated that between 39 to 365 days of age, 85 (95% CI: 61-109) cases per 100 000 infants, could have been prevented if all infants with ≥1 delayed dose had received their three doses within the on-time window. Risk of pertussis was higher in the delayed versus the on-time cohort, so crude rates overestimated the excess burden (110 cases per 100 000 infants (95% CI: 95-125)). The estimated dose-specific excess burden per 100 000 infants was 132 for DTP1, 50 for DTP2 and 19 for DTP3. CONCLUSIONS: We provide robust evidence that improved DTP vaccine timeliness, especially for the first dose, substantially reduces the burden of infant pertussis. Our methodology, using a potential outcomes framework, is applicable to other settings.

After-hours consultations and antibiotic prescribing for self-limiting upper respiratory tract infections in primary-care practices.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between after-hours consultations and the likelihood of antibiotic prescribing for self-limiting upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) in primary care practices. DESIGN: A cross-sectional analysis using Australian national primary-care practice data (MedicineInsight) between February 1, 2016 and January 31, 2019. SETTING: Nationwide primary-care practices across Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Adult and pediatric patients who visited primary care practices for first-time URTIs. METHODS: We estimated the proportion of first-time URTI episodes for which antibiotic prescribing occurred on the same day (immediate prescribing) using diagnoses and prescription records in the electronic primary-care database. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the likelihood of antibiotic prescribing by the time of primary care visits were calculated using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Among 357,287 URTI episodes, antibiotics were prescribed in 172,605 episodes (48.3%). After adjusting for patients' demographics, practice characteristics, and seasons, we detected a higher likelihood of antibiotic prescribing on weekends compared to weekdays (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.39-1.45) and on national public holidays compared to nonholidays (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.17-1.29). When we controlled for patient presentation and diagnosis, the association between antibiotic prescribing and after-hours consultations remained significant: weekend versus weekdays (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.33-1.41) and holidays versus nonholidays (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.18). CONCLUSIONS: Primary-care consultations on weekends and public holidays were associated with a higher likelihood of immediate antibiotic prescribing for self-limiting URTIs in primary care. This finding might be attributed to lower resourcing in after-hours health care.

Unlocking the power of population health cohort studies with biobanking in Australia.

Biobanks have great potential in advancing population health research by enabling access to biospecimens that can be linked to health data. Governments and research institutes worldwide have made large commitments to biobanking in recent years, often through combining cohort studies and biospecimen collections. We aim to explore the opportunities and challenges of establishing a population-scale biobank in Australia. Using existing longitudinal cohort studies to collect biospecimens can be an efficient way to rapidly advance research infrastructure in Australia. The 45 and Up Study is a large-scale longitudinal cohort with self-reported health, behaviour and lifestyle data, and may be one suitable candidate to include biospecimen collections to contribute to a population biobank. However, there are a number of ethical and practical issues specific to biospecimen collections, such as ensuring the privacy and rights of participants are protected, and ensuring sufficient resourcing to support infrastructure. Overcoming these challenges and bringing together diverse fields of expertise will enable us to maximise the potential of cohort studies and biobanks. In combination, these data sources can efficiently advance population health research beyond what is achievable with either of these resources separately.