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1.
J Colloid Interface Sci ; 608(Pt 1): 164-174, 2021 Oct 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34626964

RESUMO

Developing multifunctional, efficient and durable membrane for long-term usage for treating complex oily wastewater is highly desirable but still a challenge due to the severe membrane fouling. Herein, a hierarchical structured superhydrophilic/underwater superoleophobic nanofibrous with antifouling and visible-light-induced self-cleaning performance was manufactured by a facile combination of electrospun silver/ß-cyclodextrin/polyacrylonitrile (Ag/ß-CD/PAN) nanofibers and then the in-situ growth of a zinc oxide (ZnO) layer. The formed micro/nano sized hierarchical structure greatly increased the roughness and improved the underwater superoleophobic ability of the membrane. Therefore, the resultant ZnO/Ag/ß-CD/PAN membrane displays splendid separation performance for oil/dye/water complex emulsions and high flux recovery (>90%). Meanwhile, the permeation flux of a variety of oil/water emulsions was higher than 619 L m-2h-1 with a separation efficiency above 99.7% under the action of gravity. Furthermore, the as-fabricated membrane exhibits excellent stability towards different harsh conditions (e. g. corrosive solution, high temperature, UV irradiation and ultrasound washing). The robust mechanical and chemical stability, outstanding separation capabilities as well as excellent flux recovery capabilities makes the self-cleaning membrane a good candidate for the remediation of complex oily wastewater.

2.
Microbiome ; 9(1): 196, 2021 Sep 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34593032

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The ubiquitous gut microbiotas acquired from the environment contribute to host health. The gut microbiotas of soil invertebrates are gradually assembled from the microecological region of the soil ecosystem which they inhabit, but little is known about their characteristics when the hosts are under environmental stress. The rapid development of high-throughput DNA sequencing in the last decade has provided unprecedented insights and opportunities to characterize the gut microbiotas of soil invertebrates. Here, we characterized the core, transient, and rare bacterial taxa in the guts of soil invertebrates using the core index (CI) and developed a new theory of global microbial diversity of soil ecological microregions. RESULTS: We found that the Gammaproteobacteria could respond indiscriminately to the exposure to environmental concentrations of soil pollutants and were closely associated with the physiology and function of the host. Meanwhile, machine-learning models based on metadata calculated that Gammaproteobacteria were the core bacteria with the highest colonization potential in the gut, and further identified that they were the best indicator taxon of the response to environmental concentrations of soil pollution. Gammaproteobacteria also closely correlated with the abundance of antibiotic resistance genes. CONCLUSIONS: Our results determined that Gammaproteobacteria were an indicator taxon in the guts of the soil invertebrates that responded to environmental concentrations of soil pollutants, thus providing an effective theoretical basis for subsequent assessments of soil ecological risk. The results of the physiological and biochemical analyses of the host and the microbial-community functions, and the antibiotic resistance of Gammaproteobacteria, provide new insights for evaluating global soil ecological health. Video abstract.

3.
Bioconjug Chem ; 32(9): 2083-2094, 2021 Sep 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34472841

RESUMO

Tumor microenvironment (TME) responsive polymeric micelles are promising carriers for drug delivery. In order to meet the needs of various applications, multifarious TME-responsive switches are used to construct smart polymeric micelles, which causes the complexity and corpulence of the polymeric micelle system and increases the difficulty of preparation. In this study, we designed and synthesized an ingenious TME-responsive switch through grafting disulfide bond-modified piperidinepropionic acid (CPA) on copolymer poly(ethylene glycol)-b-poly(aspartate)(PEG-b-PAsp) and built a novel pH/reduction-responsive PEG-b-PAsp-g-CPA polymeric micelle delivery system. The CPA-pendants can reverse the surface charge of the polymeric micelle from negative to positive at pH 6.5 because of the protonation of piperidine groups, thereby enhancing the internalization of cell. Subsequently, more piperidine groups are protonated at pH 5.0 which will increase the hydrophilicity of polymeric micelles and cause the hydrophobic core to swell, thus making the disulfide bonds packed in the core to be more easily broken by GSH. With the synergistic effect of the pH-triggered protonation of piperidine groups and reduction triggered break of disulfide bonds, the polymeric micelles will disintegrate and achieve efficient intracellular drug release. The TME-responsive polymeric micelles exhibited good biological safety, enhanced internalization, and rapid intracellular doxorubicin (DOX) release in vitro. Moreover, the PEG-b-PAsp-g-CPA/DOX polymeric micelles showed excellent antitumor efficacy and low systemic toxicity in lung tumor-bearing BALB/C mice. These results indicated that the novel integrated TME-responsive switch CPA helps the PEG-b-PAsp-g-CPA polymeric micelles to obtain excellent TME-responsiveness and antitumor drug delivery capabilities, while it also makes the preparation of TME-responsive polymeric micelles simpler and more convenient. This work provides a new idea for the architecture of TME-responsive polymeric micelles.

4.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 18757, 2021 Sep 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34548504

RESUMO

This article proposes a universal activation function (UAF) that achieves near optimal performance in quantification, classification, and reinforcement learning (RL) problems. For any given problem, the gradient descent algorithms are able to evolve the UAF to a suitable activation function by tuning the UAF's parameters. For the CIFAR-10 classification using the VGG-8 neural network, the UAF converges to the Mish like activation function, which has near optimal performance [Formula: see text] when compared to other activation functions. In the graph convolutional neural network on the CORA dataset, the UAF evolves to the identity function and obtains [Formula: see text]. For the quantification of simulated 9-gas mixtures in 30 dB signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) environments, the UAF converges to the identity function, which has near optimal root mean square error of [Formula: see text]. In the ZINC molecular solubility quantification using graph neural networks, the UAF morphs to a LeakyReLU/Sigmoid hybrid and achieves RMSE=[Formula: see text]. For the BipedalWalker-v2 RL dataset, the UAF achieves the 250 reward in [Formula: see text] epochs with a brand new activation function, which gives the fastest convergence rate among the activation functions.

5.
Int J Nanomedicine ; 16: 6313-6328, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34552327

RESUMO

Pancreatic cancer is one of the most malignant tumors with one of the worst survival rates due to its insidious onset and resistance to therapies. Most therapeutics show a desired anticancer effect in vitro; however, very poor efficacy in vivo because of the limited drug delivery and penetration into pancreatic tumors attributed to the abundance of the tumor stroma, ie, the fibrotic tumor microenvironment surrounding the cancer cells. For a better understanding of the challenges posed by the pancreatic tumor stroma, we outline the key features of the tumor microenvironment. Then we highlight major strategies used to tackle the challenges to improve drug penetration into the tumor and achieve enhanced efficacy (pre)clinically. Furthermore, we describe nanomedicine strategies to modulate the tumor stroma, degrade the extracellular matrix, and co-deliver multi-functional drugs, to improve the chemotherapeutics delivery and penetration into pancreatic tumors.

6.
J Hazard Mater ; 423(Pt B): 127152, 2021 Sep 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34537643

RESUMO

Chlorine disinfection is a key global public health strategy for the prevention and control of diseases, such as COVID-19. However, little is known about effects of low levels of residual chlorine on freshwater microbial communities and antibiotic resistomes. Here, we treated freshwater microcosms with continuous low concentrations of chlorine and quantified the effects on aquatic and zebrafish intestinal microbial communities and antibiotic resistomes, using shotgun metagenome and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Although chlorine rapidly degraded, it altered the aquatic microbial community composition over time and disrupted interactions among microbes, leading to decreases in community complexity and stability. However, community diversity was unaffected. The majority of ecological functions, particularly metabolic capacities, recovered after treatment with chlorine for 14 d, due to microbial community redundancy. There were also increased levels of antibiotic-resistance gene dissemination by horizontal and vertical gene transfer under chlorine treatment. Although the zebrafish intestinal microbial community recovered from temporary dysbiosis, growth and behavior of zebrafish adults were negatively affected by chlorine. Overall, our findings demonstrate the negative effects of residual chlorine on freshwater ecosystems and highlight a possible long-term risk to public health.

7.
Int J Biol Macromol ; 190: 463-473, 2021 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34506859

RESUMO

Xanthine oxidase (XO) plays a vital role in inducing hyperuricemia and increasing the level of superoxide free radicals in blood, and is proved as an important target for gout. Chrysoeriol (CHE) is a natural flavone with potent XO inhibitory activity (IC50 = 2.487 ± 0.213 µM), however, the mechanism of interaction is still unclear. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of the interaction between CHE and XO was accomplished by enzyme kinetics, isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC), multi-spectroscopic methods, molecular simulation and ADMET. The results showed that CHE acted as a rapid reversible and competitive-type XO inhibitor and its binding to XO was driven by hydrogen bonding and hydrophobic interaction. Moreover, CHE exhibited a strong fluorescence quenching effect through a static quenching procedure and induced conformational changes of XO. Its binding pattern with XO was revealed by docking study and the binding affinity to XO was enhanced by the interactions with key amino acid residues in the active pocket of XO. Further, CHE showed good stability and pharmacokinetic behavior properties in molecule dynamic simulation and ADMET prediction. Overall, this study shed some light on the mechanism of interaction between CHE and XO, also provided some valuable information concerning the future therapeutic application of CHE as natural XO inhibitor.

8.
Eur J Med Chem ; 225: 113815, 2021 Aug 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34479038

RESUMO

1, 2, 3, 4-Tetrahydro-ß-carboline (THßC) scaffold is widespread in many natural products (NPs) and synthetic compounds which show a variety of pharmacological activities. In this article, we reviewed the design, structures and biological characteristics of reported synthetic THßC compounds, and structure and activity relationship (SAR) of them were also discussed. This work might provide a reference for subsequent drug development based on THßC.

9.
Phys Chem Chem Phys ; 23(35): 19289-19296, 2021 Sep 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34525146

RESUMO

The conformations of 1,7DSU and its stepwise solvation by up to 5 water molecules were explored using supersonic-jet Fourier transform microwave spectroscopy with the supplement of theoretical calculations. Experimentally, the rotational spectra of the most stable structures of the monomer, monohydrate and dihydrate were observed and assigned. The characteristics of the stability and intermolecular interaction topologies of the 1,7DSU monomer and its hydrated clusters were obtained by CREST conformational sampling followed by B3LYP-D3(BJ)/def2-TZVP geometrical optimizations and MP2/aug-cc-pVTZ single-point energy calculations. The first water molecule links to the 1,7DSU monomer through an OwH⋯O hydrogen bond. The water molecules tend to aggregate with each other and form cyclic structures for the n = 2-5 clusters. The interactions between water and the 1,7DSU monomer as well as those between water and water were revealed. The analyses of non-covalent interactions and the natural bond orbital suggest that the OwH⋯O1,7DSU, OwH⋯Ow, and CH⋯Ow hydrogen bonds play a prominent role in structural stability.

10.
J Med Chem ; 64(19): 14664-14701, 2021 Oct 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34550682

RESUMO

Secondary mutations of FLT3 have become the main mechanism of FLT3 inhibitor resistance that presents a significant clinical challenge. Herein, a series of pyrazole-3-amine derivatives were synthesized and optimized to overcome the common secondary resistance mutations of FLT3. The structure-activity relationship and molecular dynamics simulation studies illustrated that the ribose region of FLT3 could be occupied to help address the obstacle of secondary mutations. Among those derivatives, compound 67 exhibited potent and selective inhibitory activities against FLT3-ITD-positive acute myeloid leukemia (AML) cells and possessed equivalent potency against transformed BaF3 cells with a variety of secondary mutations. Besides, cellular mechanism assays demonstrated that 67 strongly inhibited phosphorylation of FLT3 and its downstream signaling factors, as well as induced cell cycle arrest and apoptosis in MV4-11 cells. In the MV4-11 xenograft models, 67 exhibited potent antitumor potency without obvious toxicity. Taken together, these results demonstrated that 67 might be a drug candidate for the treatment of FLT3-ITD-positive AML.

11.
Brief Bioinform ; 2021 Aug 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34368838

RESUMO

The advent of large-scale biomedical data and computational algorithms provides new opportunities for drug repurposing and discovery. It is of great interest to find an appropriate data representation and modeling method to facilitate these studies. The anatomical therapeutic chemical (ATC) classification system, proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO), is an essential source of information for drug repurposing and discovery. Besides, computational methods are applied to predict drug ATC classification. We conducted a systematic review of ATC computational prediction studies and revealed the differences in data sets, data representation, algorithm approaches, and evaluation metrics. We then proposed a deep fusion learning (DFL) framework to optimize the ATC prediction model, namely DeepATC. The methods based on graph convolutional network, inferring biological network and multimodel attentive fusion network were applied in DeepATC to extract the molecular topological information and low-dimensional representation from the molecular graph and heterogeneous biological networks. The results indicated that DeepATC achieved superior model performance with area under the curve (AUC) value at 0.968. Furthermore, the DFL framework was performed for the transcriptome data-based ATC prediction, as well as another independent task that is significantly relevant to drug discovery, namely drug-target interaction. The DFL-based model achieved excellent performance in the above-extended validation task, suggesting that the idea of aggregating the heterogeneous biological network and node's (molecule or protein) self-topological features will bring inspiration for broader drug repurposing and discovery research.

12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34382925

RESUMO

A novel Gram-stain-negative strain, WQ 117T, isolated from the faeces of Rhinopithecus bieti collected at Yunnan Snub-nosed Monkey National Park, Yunnan province, PR China, was subjected to a polyphasic taxonomic study. The results of phylogenetic analysis based on 16S rRNA gene sequences indicated that the isolate represented a member of the genus Faecalibacter, sharing 97.64 % sequence similarity with the type strain Faecalibacter macacae YIM 102668T. The G+C content of the genomic DNA of WQ117T was 30.5 mol%. The predominant isoprenoid quinone was MK-6. The major cellular fatty acids was iso-C15 : 0. The whole genome average nucleotide identity (gANI) values and the digital DNA-DNA hybridization values between WQ 117T and YIM 102668T were 79.66 % and 22.20 %, respectively. Growth occurred at 0-50 °C (optimally at 28-35 °C), pH 7.0-9.0 (optimally at pH 8.0) and with 0-2 % (w/v) NaCl (optimally without NaCl). On the basis of the taxonomic evidence, a novel species, Faecalibacter rhinopitheci sp. nov., is proposed. The type strain is WQ 117T (=KCTC 82394T=CCTCC AA 2020027T).


Assuntos
Bacteroidetes/classificação , Filogenia , Presbytini , Animais , Técnicas de Tipagem Bacteriana , Bacteroidetes/isolamento & purificação , Composição de Bases , China , DNA Bacteriano/genética , Ácidos Graxos/química , Fezes/microbiologia , Hibridização de Ácido Nucleico , Presbytini/microbiologia , RNA Ribossômico 16S/genética , Análise de Sequência de DNA , Vitamina K 2/análogos & derivados , Vitamina K 2/química
13.
ACS Appl Mater Interfaces ; 13(34): 40249-40266, 2021 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34424682

RESUMO

Disruption of intestinal homeostasis is an important event in the development of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and genistein (GEN) is a candidate medicine to prevent IBD. However, the clinical application of GEN is restricted owing to its low oral bioavailability. Herein, a reactive oxygen species (ROS)-responsive nanomaterial (defined as GEN-NP2) containing superoxidase dismutase-mimetic temporally conjugated ß-cyclodextrin and 4-(hydroxymethyl)phenylboronic acid pinacol ester-modified GEN was prepared. GEN-NP2 effectively delivered GEN to the inflammation site and protected GEN from rapid metabolism and elimination in the gastrointestinal tract. In response to high ROS levels, GEN was site-specifically released and accumulated at inflammatory sites. Mechanistically, GEN-NP2 effectively increased the expression of estrogen receptor ß (ERß), simultaneously reduced the expression of proinflammatory mediators (apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a CARD (ASC) and Caspase1-p20), attenuated the infiltration of inflammatory cells, promoted autophagy of intestinal epithelial cells, inhibited the secretion of interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), modulated the gut microbiota, and ultimately alleviated colitis. In addition, the oral administration of these nanoparticles showed excellent safety, thereby providing confidence in the further development of precise treatments for IBD.

14.
J Med Chem ; 64(17): 12548-12571, 2021 Sep 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34415148

RESUMO

Hematologic malignancies (HM) start in blood forming tissue or in the cells of the immune system. Cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) regulate cell cycle progression, and some of them control cellular transcription. CDK inhibition can trigger apoptosis and could be particularly useful in hematological malignancies. Herein, we describe our efforts toward the discovery of a novel series of quinazoline derivatives as CDK inhibitors. Intensive structural modifications lead to the identification of compound 37d as the most active inhibitors of CDKs 1, 2, 4, 8 and 9 with balancing potency and selectivity against CDKs. Further biological studies revealed that compound 37d can arrest the cell cycle and induce apoptosis via activating PARP and caspase 3. More importantly, compound 37d showed good antitumor efficacy in multiple HM mice xenograft models with no obvious toxicity. These results indicated that CDK 1, 2, 4, 8, and 9 inhibitors could be potentially used to treat certain hematologic malignancies.

15.
Sci Total Environ ; 797: 149015, 2021 Nov 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34346373

RESUMO

Over 40% of herbicides used today are chiral. Dichlorprop (2, 4-DCPP) is a widely used typical broad-spectrum chiral aryloxyphenoxy propionic acid (AOPP) herbicide. However, the molecular mechanism of the enantioselectivity of DCPP enantiomers (S-DCPP and R-DCPP) and their effects on non-target organisms are remain unclear. In the present study, the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana was treated by DCPP enantiomers to directly reveal the effects of DCPP enantiomers on plant growth, as well as metabolic profile. Results showed that the enantioselectivity embodied in that R-DCPP treatment led to the decrease of shoot weight, the significantly variation on morphology of shoot and root, oxidative damage, et al., while the plant morphology also changes to a certain extent associated oxidative damage after treated by S-DCPP. By using metabolomic analysis, it was found that R-DCPP had significant effects on A. thaliana leaf metabolism, including lactose metabolism, starch and sucrose metabolism, TCA cycle, fatty acid biosynthesis pathway and pentose phosphate pathway, and accumulated a lot of antioxidants in plant leaves, while the amino acids and some terpenoids increased in S-DCPP group. Our study provides a new direction to explore the relationship between chiral herbicides on leaf metabolism, and the effect of this relationship on the plant growth.


Assuntos
Arabidopsis , Herbicidas , Ácido 2,4-Diclorofenoxiacético/análogos & derivados , Herbicidas/toxicidade , Folhas de Planta , Estereoisomerismo
16.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 15824, 2021 08 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34349161

RESUMO

A generic intelligent tomato classification system based on DenseNet-201 with transfer learning was proposed and the augmented training sets obtained by data augmentation methods were employed to train the model. The trained model achieved high classification accuracy on the images of different quality, even those containing high levels of noise. Also, the trained model could accurately and efficiently identify and classify a single tomato image with only 29 ms, indicating that the proposed model has great potential value in real-world applications. The feature visualization of the trained models shows their understanding of tomato images, i.e., the learned common and high-level features. The strongest activations of the trained models show that the correct or incorrect target recognition areas by a model during the classification process will affect its final classification accuracy. Based on this, the results obtained in this study could provide guidance and new ideas to improve the development of intelligent agriculture.

17.
J Org Chem ; 86(17): 12336-12343, 2021 Sep 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34328328

RESUMO

Through ß-activation of alkynoic acid esters with N-heterocyclic carbene catalysis, a formal [3+3] annulation of alkynyl acylazoliums with indolin-3-ones has been developed for the rapid construction of structurally interesting benzofuro[3,2-b]pyridin-2-ones with potential bioactivities. This protocol provides a highly efficient and simple method for the synthesis of the target molecules under mild reaction conditions with a wide substrate scope and excellent chemoselectivity. The synthetic utility of this protocol was also demonstrated by the versatile late-stage modifications.

18.
Sci Total Environ ; 795: 148865, 2021 Nov 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34246136

RESUMO

Cyanobacterial blooms constitute a global ecological problem that can seriously threaten human health. One of the most common bloom-forming cyanobacteria in freshwater is Microcystis aeruginosa, whose secretion of toxic substances (microcystins, MCs) have strong liver toxicity and endanger the health of exposed people through contaminated aquatic products and drinking water. However, few studies on the neurotoxicity of M. aeruginosa to zebrafish have simulated the process of an actual cyanobacterial bloom. In this study, we used the zebrafish (Danio rerio) as an effective model organism to study the acute neurotoxicity of M. aeruginosa, and to clarify its principal mechanism of action. A total of 82 upregulated and 26 downregulated proteins were detected by quantitative proteomics analysis in zebrafish brain after exposure to M. aeruginosa. Intriguingly, these proteins with changed expression were related to Synaptic vesicle cycle and terpenoid skeleton biosynthesis pathway, such as ACAT, STX1A, and V-ATPase. The obtained results uniformly indicated that the neurotoxicity of M. aeruginosa seriously damaged the neurotransmitter conduction in the nervous system and brain information storage and transmission of zebrafish and makes it more susceptible to neurological diseases. Our study provides a new perspective on the neurotoxicity risk of cyanobacterial blooms.


Assuntos
Microcystis , Peixe-Zebra , Animais , Encéfalo , Água Doce , Humanos , Microcistinas/toxicidade , Proteômica
19.
Sci Total Environ ; 796: 149021, 2021 Nov 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34280622

RESUMO

Bio-removal of negative charged platinum complex is of great challenge owing to electrostatic repulsions between PtCl62- and general extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) of microorganism. Galdieria sulphuraria (GS) are thermophilic and acidophilic microalga with specific metabolism, which subsequently lead to their unique cellular compositions such as EPS and phycocyanin, possibly providing a strategy to deal with negative charged metal complex. Accordingly, G. sulphuraria are employed to remove negative charged PtCl62- complex with initial concentrations ranging from 0, 10, 20, 30, to 45 ppm. The growth rates of G. sulphuraria with microalgae named as GS-0, GS-10, GS-20, GS-30, and GS-45, respectively, and simultaneously bio-removal efficiencies of PtCl62- are investigated. G. sulphuraria are independent to PtCl62- within 0-30 ppm, while they are inhibited within 45 ppm of PtCl62-. The PtCl62- removal efficiencies of GS-10, GS-20, and GS-30 increase from 94.58%, 95.52%, to 95.92%, while decrease to 71.81% of GS-45. About 92.39%, 93.77%, 94.29%, and 75.21% of PtCl62- adsorbed are accumulated within GS-10, GS-20, GS-30, GS-45, with few in EPS. The PtCl62- complexes accumulated in EPS and algae cells are possibly decomposed to PtCl4 according to the increasing zeta potentials of EPS and algae cells. The results indicate that PtCl62- is efficiently removed by G. sulphuraria, achieving bio-removal of negative charged PtCl62- complex from wastewater.


Assuntos
Microalgas , Rodófitas , Matriz Extracelular de Substâncias Poliméricas , Ficocianina , Águas Residuárias
20.
Sci Total Environ ; 796: 149110, 2021 Nov 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34328877

RESUMO

Reasonable carbon price can effectively promote the low-carbon transformation of economy. The future carbon price has an important guiding significance for enterprises and the country. However, the nonlinear and high noise characteristics inherent in carbon price make them challenging to predict accurately. A hybrid decomposition and integration prediction model is proposed using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, an improved grey model and an extreme learning machine to solve this problem. First, a large number of factors that influence carbon price are collected by meta-analysis. The final input is selected through a two-stage feature selection process. Second, the HP filter is used to decompose the input into long-term trends and short-term fluctuations predicted by the improved GM and ELM, respectively. Finally, the two prediction sequences are compared to obtain the final result. European Union Allowances futures price data are applied for empirical analysis. The results show that the prediction performance of this model is better than the other 10 benchmark models, the T-bill, Stoxx50, S&P clean energy index and Brent oil price in the financial and energy markets are helpful in the carbon price's prediction. T-bill affects carbon price frequently, Stoxx50 has a negative correlation with the carbon price in the influence period. Under normal circumstances, the S&P clean energy index is positively correlated with the carbon price. However, when the economic situation is depressed, resulting in a short-term negative correlation between them. In general, carbon market is significantly affected by cross spill over between different markets. The method not only improves the accuracy of carbon price forecast, but also the application of the improved GM explains the reasons for the change of carbon price, which is helpful to promote the realization of carbon neutralization by market-oriented means.


Assuntos
Carbono , Previsões
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