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1.
Lancet Glob Health ; 8(1): e67-e75, 2020 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31791800

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Children who are HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) have higher morbidity and mortality than children who are HIV-unexposed and uninfected despite safer breastfeeding and improved maternal health with maternal antiretroviral therapy. We present the first global estimates of the population of children who are HEU (aged 0-14 years) and the geographical and temporal trends in HIV high-burden countries between 2000 and 2018. METHODS: The Spectrum AIDS Impact Module developed by Avenir Health, UNAIDS, and partners is used to estimate key HIV epidemic indicators from mathematical models. We used 2019 UNAIDS global estimates of children (aged 0-14 years) who are HEU generated by Spectrum and 2017 UN Population Division estimates of the number of all children in each region or country to estimate the regional or national prevalence of children who were HEU, the regional or national contribution of children who were HEU to the global population of children who were HEU, and the proportion of children who were HEU and exposed to antiretrovirals for six UNAIDS regions and 21 HIV high-burden countries in 2018. We also estimated the percentage change in the global population of children who were HEU between 2000 and 2018. FINDINGS: In 2018, there were an estimated 14·8 million (lower estimate 11·1-upper estimate 18·3) children who were HEU, 13·2 million (9·8-16·3; 90%) of whom resided in sub-Saharan Africa and 760 000 (640 000-970 000; 5%) of whom resided in the Asia and Pacific region. Five countries accounted for 50% of all 14·8 million children who were HEU globally: South Africa (3·5 million [23·8%]), Uganda (1·1 million [7·5%]), Mozambique (1·0 million [6·6%]), Tanzania (910 000 [6·1%]); and Nigeria (880 000 [6·0%]). In five southern African countries, the prevalence of children who were HEU exceeded 15% of the general child population: eSwatini (32·4%), Botswana (27·4%), South Africa (21·6%), Lesotho (21·1%), and Namibia (16·4%). INTERPRETATION: The global population of children who are HEU is substantial, requiring a coordinated strategy to reduce HIV exposure in children and ensure optimal health and wellbeing of children who are HEU and their families. Future research and programmatic funding investments must be aligned with the geographical distribution of children who are HEU. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, International AIDS Society.


Assuntos
Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Medição de Risco/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Prevalência
2.
AIDS ; 33 Suppl 3: S235-S244, 2019 12 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31800403

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Improve models for estimating HIV epidemic trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). DESIGN: Mathematical epidemic model fit to national HIV survey and ANC sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) data. METHODS: We modified EPP to incorporate age and sex stratification (EPP-ASM) to more accurately capture the shifting demographics of maturing HIV epidemics. Secondly, we developed a new functional form for the HIV transmission rate, termed 'r-hybrid', which combines a four-parameter logistic function for the initial epidemic growth, peak, and decline followed by a first-order random walk for recent trends after epidemic stabilization. We fitted the r-hybrid model along with previously developed r-spline and r-trend models to HIV prevalence data from household surveys and ANC-SS in 177 regions in 34 SSA countries. We used leave-one-out cross validation with household survey HIV prevalence to compare model predictions. RESULTS: The r-hybrid and r-spline models typically provided similar HIV prevalence trends, but sometimes qualitatively different assessments of recent incidence trends because of different structural assumptions about the HIV transmission rate. The r-hybrid model had the lowest average continuous ranked probability score, indicating the best model predictions. Coverage of 95% posterior predictive intervals was 91.5% for the r-hybrid model, versus 87.2 and 85.5% for r-spline and r-trend, respectively. CONCLUSION: The EPP-ASM and r-hybrid models improve consistency of EPP and Spectrum, improve the epidemiological assumptions underpinning recent HIV incidence estimates, and improve estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence trends. Countries that use general population survey and ANC-SS data to estimate HIV epidemic trends should consider using these tools.

3.
AIDS ; 33 Suppl 3: S197-S201, 2019 12 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31725433

RESUMO

: UNAIDS and other partners provide support to countries to develop estimates of HIV and related indicators on an annual basis. These estimates are used to monitor epidemic trends, guide program planning and resource allocation, and inform policy decision-making. The collection of articles in this AIDS supplement provide the headline results for the 2019 UNAIDS estimates and describe the new developments in the methods used to produce these estimates.

4.
AIDS ; 2019 Nov 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31725434

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Improve models for estimating HIV epidemic trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). DESIGN: Mathematical epidemic model fit to national HIV survey and ANC sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) data. METHODS: We modified EPP to incorporate age and sex stratification (EPP-ASM) to more accurately capture the shifting demographics of maturing HIV epidemics. Secondly, we developed a new functional form, termed 'r-hybrid', for the HIV transmission rate which combines a four-parameter logistic function for the initial epidemic growth, peak, and decline followed by a first-order random walk for recent trends after epidemic stabilization. We fitted the r-hybrid model along with previously developed r-spline and r-trend models to HIV prevalence data from household surveys and ANC-SS in 177 regions in 34 SSA countries. We used leave-one-out cross validation with household survey HIV prevalence to compare model predictions. RESULTS: The r-hybrid and r-spline models typically provided similar HIV prevalence trends, but sometimes qualitatively different assessments of recent incidence trends due to different structural assumptions about the HIV transmission rate. The r-hybrid model had the lowest average continuous ranked probability score, indicating the best model predictions. Coverage of 95% posterior predictive intervals was 91.5% for the r-hybrid model, versus 87.2% and 85.5% for r-spline and r-trend, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The EPP-ASM and r-hybrid models improve consistency of EPP and Spectrum, improve the epidemiological assumptions underpinning recent HIV incidence estimates, and improve estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence trends. Countries that use general population survey and ANC-SS data to estimate HIV epidemic trends should consider using these tools.

5.
BMC Infect Dis ; 19(Suppl 1): 783, 2019 Sep 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31526371

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The 2016 'Start Free, Stay Free, AIDS Free' global agenda, builds on the 2011-2015 'Global Plan'. It prioritises 22 countries where 90% of the world's HIV-positive pregnant women live and aims to eliminate vertical  transmission of HIV (EMTCT) and to keep mothers alive. By 2019, no Global Plan priority country had achieved EMTCT; however, 11 non-priority countries had. This paper synthesises the characteristics of the first four countries validated for EMTCT, and of the 21 Global Plan priority countries located in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We consider what drives vertical transmission of HIV (MTCT) in the 21 SSA Global Plan priority countries. METHODS: A literature review, using PubMed, Science direct and the google search engine was conducted to obtain global and national-level information on current HIV-related context and health system characteristics of the first four EMTCT-validated countries and the 21 SSA Global Plan priority countries. Data representing only one clinic, hospital or region were excluded. Additionally, key global experts working on EMTCT were contacted to obtain clarification on published data. We applied three theories (the World Health Organisation's building blocks to strengthen health systems, van Olmen's Health System Dynamics framework and Baral's socio-ecological model for HIV risk) to understand and explain the differences between EMTCT-validated and non-validated countries. Additionally, structural equation modelling (SEM) and linear regression were used to explain associations between infant HIV exposure, access to antiretroviral therapy and two outcomes: (i) percent MTCT and (iii) number of new paediatric HIV infections per 100 000 live births (paediatric HIV case rate). RESULTS: EMTCT-validated countries have lower HIV prevalence, less breastfeeding, fewer challenges around leadership, governance within the health sector or country, infrastructure and service delivery compared with Global Plan priority countries. Although by 2016 EMTCT-validated countries and Global Plan priority countries had adopted a public health approach to HIV prevention, recommending lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all HIV-positive pregnant and lactating women, EMCT-validated countries had also included contact tracing such as assisted partner notification, and had integrated maternal and child health (MCH) and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services, with services for HIV infection, sexually transmitted infections, and viral hepatitis. Additionally, Global Plan priority countries have limited data on key SRH indicators such as unmet need for family planning, with variable coverage of antenatal care, HIV testing and triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) and very limited contact tracing. Structural equation modelling (SEM) and linear regression analysis demonstrated that ART access protects against percent MTCT (p<0.001); in simple linear regression it is 53% protective against percent MTCT. In contrast, SEM demonstrated that the case rate was driven by the number of HIV exposed infants (HEI) i.e. maternal HIV prevalence (p<0.001). In linear regression models, ART access alone explains only 17% of the case rate while HEI alone explains 81% of the case rate. In multiple regression, HEI and ART access accounts for 83% of the case rate, with HEI making the most contribution (coef. infant HIV exposure=82.8, 95% CI: 64.6, 101.1, p<0.001 vs coef. ART access=-3.0, 95% CI: -6.2, 0.3, p=0.074). CONCLUSION: Reducing infant HIV exposure, is critical to reducing the paediatric HIV case rate; increasing ART access is critical to reduce percent MTCT. Additionally, our study of four validated countries underscores the importance of contact tracing, strengthening programme monitoring, leadership and governance, as these are potentially-modifiable factors.


Assuntos
Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/transmissão , HIV/imunologia , Transmissão Vertical de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/epidemiologia , Saúde Reprodutiva , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Aleitamento Materno , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Busca de Comunicante , Feminino , Soropositividade para HIV , Humanos , Lactente , Lactação , Modelos Lineares , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento , Mães/educação , Gravidez , Cuidado Pré-Natal , Prevalência , Serviços de Saúde Reprodutiva , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Adulto Jovem
6.
AIDS ; 33 Suppl 3: S213-S226, 2019 12 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31490781

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and partners set the 90-90-90 target for the year 2020: diagnose 90% of all people living with HIV (PLHIV); treat 90% of people who know their status; and suppress the virus in 90% of people on treatment. In 2015, countries began reporting to UNAIDS on progress against 90-90-90 using standard definitions and methods. METHODS: We used data submitted to UNAIDS from 170 countries to assess country-specific progress towards 90-90-90 through 2018. To assess global and regional progress, overall and by sex for adults aged 15 years and older, we combined country-reported data with estimates generated with a Bayesian hierarchical model. RESULTS: A total of 60 countries reported on all three 90s in 2018, up from 23 in 2015. Among all PLHIV worldwide, 79% (67-92%) knew their HIV status. Of these, 78% (69-82%) were accessing treatment and 86% (72-92%) of people accessing treatment had suppressed viral loads. Of the 37.9 million (32.7-44.0 million) PLHIV worldwide, 53% (43-63%) had suppressed viral loads. The gap to fully achieving 73% of PLHIV with suppressed viral load was 7.7 million; 15 countries had already achieved this target by 2018. CONCLUSION: Increased data availability has led to improved measures of country and global progress towards the 90-90-90 target. Although gains in access to testing and treatment continue, many countries and regions are unlikely to reach the 90-90-90 target by 2020.

7.
Glob Health Action ; 12(1): 1662685, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31510887

RESUMO

Background: Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 is a significant challenge, as new HIV infections among adolescents and young people have not decreased fast enough to curb the epidemic. The combination of slow HIV response and increasing youth populations 15-24 could affect progress towards 2030 goals. Objective: This analysis aimed to describe global and regional trends from 2010-2050 in the HIV epidemic among adolescents and young people by accounting for demographic projections and recent trends in HIV interventions. Methods: 148 national HIV estimates files were used to project the HIV epidemic to 2050. Numbers of people living with HIV and new HIV infections were projected by sex and five-year age group. Along with demographic data, projections were based on three key assumptions: future trends in HIV incidence, antiretroviral treatment coverage, and coverage of antiretrovirals for prevention of mother-to-child transmission. Results represent nine geographic regions. Results: While the number of adolescents and young people is projected to increase by 10% from 2010-2050, those living with HIV is projected to decrease by 61%. In Eastern and Southern Africa, which hosts the largest HIV epidemic, new HIV infections among adolescents and young people are projected to decline by 84% from 2010-2050. In West and Central Africa, which hosts the second-largest HIV epidemic, new infections are projected to decline by 35%. Conclusions: While adolescents and young people living with HIV are living longer and ageing into adulthood, if current trends continue, the number of new HIV infections is not projected to decline fast enough to end AIDS as a health threat in this age group. Regional variations suggest that while progress in Eastern and Southern Africa could reduce the size of the epidemic by 2050, other regions exhibit slower rates of decline among adolescents and young people.


Assuntos
Demografia/tendências , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Adolescente , África Austral , Antirretrovirais/uso terapêutico , Bases de Dados Factuais , Feminino , Previsões , Humanos , Incidência , Transmissão Vertical de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Masculino , Adulto Jovem
8.
AIDS ; 33 Suppl 3: S203-S211, 2019 12 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31343430

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Global targets call for a 75% reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS deaths between 2010 and 2020. UNAIDS supports countries to measure progress towards these targets. In 2019, this effort resulted in revised national, regional and global estimates reflecting the best available data. METHODS: Spectrum software was used to develop estimates for 170 countries. Country teams from 151 countries developed HIV estimates directly and estimates for an additional 19 country were developed by UNAIDS based on available evidence. 107 countries employed models using HIV prevalence data from sentinel surveillance, routinely collected HIV testing and household surveys while the remaining 63 countries applied models using HIV case surveillance and/or reported AIDS deaths. Model parameters were informed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modeling and Projections. RESULTS: HIV estimates were available for 170 countries representing 99% of the global population. An estimated 37.9 million (uncertainty bounds 32.7-44.0 million) people were living with HIV in 2018. There were 1.7 million (1.4-2.3 million) new infections and 770 000 (570 000-1.1 million) AIDS-related deaths. New HIV infections declined in five of eight regions and AIDS deaths were declining in six of eight regions between 2010 and 2018. CONCLUSION: The estimates demonstrate progress towards ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030, however, through 2018 declines in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths were not sufficient to meet global interim targets. The UNAIDS estimates have made important contributions to guide decisions about the HIV response at global, regional and country level.

10.
PLoS One ; 13(11): e0207005, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30496302

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The increasing numbers of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) have near normal life-expectancy, resulting in more people living with HIV over the age of 50 years (PLHIV50+). Estimates of the number of PLHIV50+ are needed for the development of tailored therapeutic and prevention interventions at country, regional and global level. METHODS: The AIDS Impact Module of the Spectrum software was used to compute the numbers of PLHIV, new infections, and AIDS-related deaths for PLHIV50+ for the years 2000-2016. Projections until 2020 were calculated based on an assumed ART scale-up to 81% coverage by 2020, consistent with the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets. RESULTS: Globally, there were 5.7 million [4.7 million- 6.6 million] PLHIV50+ in 2016. The proportion of PLHIV50+ increased substantially from 8% in 2000 to 16% in 2016 and is expected to increase to 21% by 2020. In 2016, 80% of PLHIV50+ lived in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with Eastern and Southern Africa containing the largest number of PLHIV50+. While the proportion of PLHIV50+ was greater in high income countries, LMICs have higher numbers of PLHIV50+ that are expected to continue to increase by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The number of PLHIV50+ has increased dramatically since 2000 and this is expected to continue by 2020, especially in LMICs. HIV prevention campaigns, testing and treatment programs should also focus on the specific needs of PLHIV50+. Integrated health and social services should be developed to cater for the changing physical, psychological and social needs of PLHIV50+, many of whom will need to use HIV and non-HIV services.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/patologia , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , África , Antirretrovirais/uso terapêutico , Ásia , Feminino , Saúde Global/economia , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , América do Norte , Apoio Social
11.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr ; 78 Suppl 2: S134-S141, 2018 08 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29994836

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Remarkable success in the prevention and treatment of pediatric HIV infection has been achieved in the past decade. Large differences remain between the estimated number of children living with HIV (CLHIV) and those identified through national HIV programs. We evaluated the number of CLHIV and those on treatment in Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. METHODS: We assessed the total number of CLHIV, CLHIV on antiretroviral treatment (ART), and national and regional ART coverage gaps using 3 data sources: (1) Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS model-based estimates and national program data used as input values in the models, (2) population-based HIV impact surveys (PHIA), and (3) program data from the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)-supported clinics. RESULTS: Across the 7 countries, HIV prevalence among children aged 0-14 years ranged from 0.4% (Uncertainty Bounds (UB) 0.2%-0.6%) to 2.8% (UB: 2.2%-3.4%) according to the PHIA surveys, resulting in estimates of 520,000 (UB: 460,000-580,000) CLHIV in 2016-2017 in the 7 countries. This compared with Spectrum estimates of pediatric HIV prevalence ranging from 0.5% (UB: 0.5%-0.6%) to 3.5% (UB: 3.0%-4.0%) representing 480,000 (UB: 390,000-550,000) CLHIV. CLHIV not on treatment according to the PEPFAR, PHIA, and Spectrum for the countries stood at 48% (UB: 25%-60%), 49% (UB: 37%-50%), and 38% (UB: 24%-47%), respectively. Of 78 regions examined across 7 countries, 33% of regions (PHIA data) or 41% of regions (PEPFAR data) had met the ART coverage target of 81%. CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial gaps in the coverage of HIV treatment in CLHIV in the 7 countries studied according to all sources. There is continued need to identify, engage, and treat infants and children. Important inconsistencies in estimates across the 3 sources warrant in-depth investigation.


Assuntos
Antirretrovirais/uso terapêutico , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , HIV/isolamento & purificação , Adolescente , África Oriental/epidemiologia , África Austral/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Prevalência , Inquéritos e Questionários , Nações Unidas
12.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr ; 78 Suppl 1: S49-S57, 2018 08 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29994920

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE AND APPROACH: Computer-based simulation models serve an important purpose in informing HIV care for children and adolescents. We review current model-based approaches to informing pediatric and adolescent HIV estimates and guidelines. FINDINGS: Clinical disease simulation models and epidemiologic models are used to inform global and regional estimates of numbers of children and adolescents living with HIV and in need of antiretroviral therapy, to develop normative guidelines addressing strategies for diagnosis and treatment of HIV in children, and to forecast future need for pediatric and adolescent antiretroviral therapy formulations and commodities. To improve current model-generated estimates and policy recommendations, better country-level and regional-level data are needed about children living with HIV, as are improved data about survival and treatment outcomes for children with perinatal HIV infection as they age into adolescence and adulthood. In addition, novel metamodeling and value of information methods are being developed to improve the transparency of model methods and results, as well as to allow users to more easily tailor model-based analyses to their own settings. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial progress has been made in using models to estimate the size of the pediatric and adolescent HIV epidemic, to inform the development of guidelines for children and adolescents affected by HIV, and to support targeted implementation of policy recommendations to maximize impact. Ongoing work will address key limitations and further improve these model-based projections.


Assuntos
Antirretrovirais/uso terapêutico , Epidemias/legislação & jurisprudência , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , HIV/efeitos dos fármacos , Regulamento Sanitário Internacional , Adolescente , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Simulação por Computador , Saúde Global , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , Ciência da Implementação , Lactente , Modelos Teóricos , Formulação de Políticas , Adulto Jovem
13.
Front Pediatr ; 6: 157, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29900165

RESUMO

Great gains were achieved with the introduction of the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals, including improved child survival. Transition to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) focused on surviving, thriving, and transforming, representing an important shift to a broader public health goal, the achievement of which holds the promise of longer-term individual and societal benefits. A similar shift is needed with respect to outcomes for infants born to women living with HIV (WLHIV). Programming to prevent vertical HIV transmission has been successful in increasingly achieving a goal of HIV-free survival for infants born to WLHIV. Unfortunately, HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) children are not achieving comparable health and developmental outcomes compared with children born to HIV-uninfected women under similar socioeconomic circumstances. The 3rd HEU Child Workshop, held as a satellite session of the International AIDS Society's 9th IAS Conference in Paris in July 2017, provided a venue to discuss HEU child health and development disparities. A summary of the Workshop proceedings follows, providing current scientific findings, emphasizing the gap in systems for long-term monitoring, and highlighting the public health need to establish a strategic plan to better quantify the short and longer-term health and developmental outcomes of HEU children.

14.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 4(2): e3, 2018 Apr 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29691202

RESUMO

HIV programs have provided a major impetus for investments in surveillance data, with 5-10% of HIV program budgets recommended to support data. However there are questions concerning the sustainability of these investments. The Sustainable Development Goals have consolidated health into one goal and communicable diseases into one target (Target 3.3). Sustainable Development Goals now introduce targets focused specifically on data (Targets 17.18 and 17.19). Data are seen as one of the three systemic issues (in Goal 17) for implementing Sustainable Development Goals, alongside policies and partnerships. This paper reviews the surveillance priorities in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals and highlights the shift from periodic measurement towards sustainable disaggregated, real-time, case, and patient data, which are used routinely to improve programs. Finally, the key directions in developing person-centered monitoring systems are assessed with country examples. The directions contribute to the Sustainable Development Goal focus on people-centered development applied to data.

15.
Glob Health Action ; 11(1): 1440782, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29502484

RESUMO

Many resource-limited countries are scaling up health services and health-information systems (HISs). The HIV Cascade framework aims to link treatment services and programs to improve outcomes and impact. It has been adapted to HIV prevention services, other infectious and non-communicable diseases, and programs for specific populations. Where successful, it links the use of health services by individuals across different disease categories, time and space. This allows for the development of longitudinal health records for individuals and de-identified individual level information is used to monitor and evaluate the use, cost, outcome and impact of health services. Contemporary digital technology enables countries to develop and implement integrated HIS to support person centred services, a major aim of the Sustainable Development Goals. The key to link the diverse sources of information together is a national health identifier (NHID). In a country with robust civil protections, this should be given at birth, be unique to the individual, linked to vital registration services and recorded every time that an individual uses health services anywhere in the country: it is more than just a number as it is part of a wider system. Many countries would benefit from practical guidance on developing and implementing NHIDs. Organizations such as ASTM and ISO, describe the technical requirements for the NHID system, but few countries have received little practical guidance. A WHO/UNAIDS stake-holders workshop was held in Geneva, Switzerland in July 2016, to provide a 'road map' for countries and included policy-makers, information and healthcare professionals, and members of civil society. As part of any NHID system, countries need to strengthen and secure the protection of personal health information. While often the technology is available, the solution is not just technical. It requires political will and collaboration among all stakeholders to be successful.


Assuntos
Países em Desenvolvimento , Saúde Global , Sistemas de Informação/organização & administração , Custos e Análise de Custo , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos
16.
Sci Transl Med ; 9(401)2017 Aug 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28768802

RESUMO

A recent study showed how geospatial mapping can be used to improve Lesotho's HIV treatment program to achieve the 90-90-90 targets set by the United Nations but incorrectly describes "treatment as prevention" as the UN's strategy for a successful national AIDS response.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , África ao Sul do Saara , Terapia Antirretroviral de Alta Atividade , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Humanos
17.
Demography ; 54(4): 1503-1528, 2017 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28741073

RESUMO

Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and well-being. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often problematic. In this article, we introduce the network survival method, a new approach for estimating adult death rates. We derive the precise conditions under which it produces consistent and unbiased estimates. Further, we develop an analytical framework for sensitivity analysis. To assess the performance of the network survival method in a realistic setting, we conducted a nationally representative survey experiment in Rwanda (n = 4,669). Network survival estimates were similar to estimates from other methods, even though the network survival estimates were made with substantially smaller samples and are based entirely on data from Rwanda, with no need for model life tables or pooling of data from other countries. Our analytic results demonstrate that the network survival method has attractive properties, and our empirical results show that this method can be used in countries where reliable estimates of adult death rates are sorely needed.


Assuntos
Inquéritos Epidemiológicos/métodos , Modelos Estatísticos , Mortalidade/tendências , Apoio Social , Adolescente , Adulto , Feminino , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos/normas , Humanos , Entrevistas como Assunto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Ruanda/epidemiologia , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Adulto Jovem
18.
J Int AIDS Soc ; 20(Suppl 3): 21520, 2017 05 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28530036

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: With increasing survival of vertically HIV-infected children and ongoing new horizontal HIV infections, the population of adolescents (age 10-19 years) living with HIV is increasing. This review aims to describe the epidemiology of the adolescent HIV epidemic and the ability of national monitoring systems to measure outcomes in HIV-infected adolescents through the adolescent transition to adulthood. METHODS: Differences in global trends between younger (age 10-14 years) and older (age 15-19 years) adolescents in key epidemic indicators are interrogated using 2016 UNAIDS estimates. National population-based survey data in the 15 highest adolescent HIV burden countries are evaluated and examples of national case-based surveillance systems described. Finally, we consider the potential impact of adolescent-specific recommendations in the 2016 WHO Consolidated Guidelines on the Use of Antiretroviral Drugs for Treating and Preventing HIV Infection. DISCUSSION: UNAIDS estimates indicate the population of adolescents living with HIV is increasing, new HIV infections in older adolescents are declining, and while AIDS-related deaths are beginning to decline in younger adolescents, they are still increasing in older adolescents. National population-based surveys provide valuable estimates of HIV prevalence in older adolescents and recent surveys include data on younger adolescents. Only a few countries have nationwide electronic case-based HIV surveillance, with the ability to provide population-level data on key HIV outcomes in the diagnosed population living with HIV. However, in the 15 highest adolescent HIV burden countries, there are no systems tracking adolescent transition to adulthood or healthcare transition. The strength of the 2016 WHO adolescent-specific recommendations on antiretroviral therapy and provision of HIV services to adolescents was hampered by the lack of evidence specific to this age group. CONCLUSIONS: Progress is being made in national surveillance and global monitoring systems to specifically identify trends in adolescents living with HIV. However, HIV programmes responsive to the evolving HIV prevention and treatment needs of adolescents can be facilitated further by: data disaggregation to younger and older adolescents and mode of HIV infection where feasible; implementation of tools to achieve expanded national case-based surveillance; streamlining consent/assent procedures in younger adolescents and consensus on indicators of adolescent healthcare transition and transition to adulthood.


Assuntos
Epidemias , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Criança , Feminino , Saúde Global , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Humanos , Masculino , Prevalência , Adulto Jovem
19.
Glob Health Action ; 10(sup1): 1291169, 2017.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28532304

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The development of global HIV estimates has been critical for understanding, advocating for and funding the HIV response. The process of generating HIV estimates has been cited as the gold standard for public health estimates. OBJECTIVE: This paper provides important lessons from an international scientific collaboration and provides a useful model for those producing public health estimates in other fields. DESIGN: Through the compilation and review of published journal articles, United Nations reports, other documents and personal experience we compiled historical information about the estimates and identified potential lessons for other public health estimation efforts. RESULTS: Through the development of core partnerships with country teams, implementers, demographers, mathematicians, epidemiologists and international organizations, UNAIDS has led a process to develop the capacity of country teams to produce internationally comparable HIV estimates. The guidance provided by these experts has led to refinements in the estimated numbers of people living with HIV, new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths over the past 20 years. A number of important updates to the methods since 1997 resulted in fluctuations in the estimated levels, trends and impact of HIV. The largest correction occurred between the 2005 and 2007 rounds with the additions of household survey data into the models. In 2001 the UNAIDS models at that time estimated there were 40 million people living with HIV. In 2016, improved models estimate there were 30 million (27.6-32.7 million) people living with HIV in 2001. CONCLUSIONS: Country ownership of the estimation tools has allowed for additional uses of the results than had the results been produced by researchers or a team in Geneva. Guidance from a reference group and input from country teams have led to critical improvements in the models over time. Those changes have improved countries' and stakeholders' understanding of the HIV epidemic.


Assuntos
Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Indicadores Básicos de Saúde , Saúde Pública/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos
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