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1.
Environ Sci Technol ; 53(22): 13524-13534, 2019 Nov 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31647871

RESUMO

Africa has ambitious plans to address energy deficits and sustain economic growth with fossil fueled power plants. The continent is also experiencing faster population growth than anywhere else in the world that will lead to proliferation of vehicles. Here, we estimate air pollutant emissions in Africa from future (2030) electricity generation and transport. We find that annual emissions of two precursors of fine particles (PM2.5) hazardous to health, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), approximately double by 2030 relative to 2012, increasing from 2.5 to 5.5 Tg SO2 and 1.5 to 2.8 Tg NOx. We embed these emissions in the GEOS-Chem model nested over the African continent to simulate ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and determine the burden of disease (excess deaths) attributable to exposure to future fossil fuel use. We calculate 48000 avoidable deaths in 2030 (95% confidence interval: 6000-88000), mostly in South Africa (10400), Nigeria (7500), and Malawi (2400), with 3-times higher mortality rates from power plants than transport. Sensitivity of the burden of disease to either population growth or air quality varies regionally and suggests that emission mitigation strategies would be most effective in Southern Africa, whereas population growth is the main driver everywhere else.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Eletricidade , Monitoramento Ambiental , Combustíveis Fósseis , Malaui , Nigéria , Material Particulado , África do Sul
2.
Environ Sci Technol ; 52(20): 11670-11681, 2018 10 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30215246

RESUMO

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading risk factor for the global burden of disease. However, uncertainty remains about PM2.5 sources. We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulation for 2014, constrained by satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 to interpret globally dispersed PM2.5 mass and composition measurements from the ground-based surface particulate matter network (SPARTAN). Measured site mean PM2.5 composition varies substantially for secondary inorganic aerosols (2.4-19.7 µg/m3), mineral dust (1.9-14.7 µg/m3), residual/organic matter (2.1-40.2 µg/m3), and black carbon (1.0-7.3 µg/m3). Interpretation of these measurements with the GEOS-Chem model yields insight into sources affecting each site. Globally, combustion sectors such as residential energy use (7.9 µg/m3), industry (6.5 µg/m3), and power generation (5.6 µg/m3) are leading sources of outdoor global population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. Global population-weighted organic mass is driven by the residential energy sector (64%) whereas population-weighted secondary inorganic concentrations arise primarily from industry (33%) and power generation (32%). Simulation-measurement biases for ammonium nitrate and dust identify uncertainty in agricultural and crustal sources. Interpretation of initial PM2.5 mass and composition measurements from SPARTAN with the GEOS-Chem model constrained by satellite-based PM2.5 provides insight into sources and processes that influence the global spatial variation in PM2.5 composition.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Material Particulado , Aerossóis , Poeira , Monitoramento Ambiental
3.
Environ Sci Technol ; 51(19): 11185-11195, 2017 Oct 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28891283

RESUMO

We interpret in situ and satellite observations with a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem, downscaled to 0.1° × 0.1°) to understand global trends in population-weighted mean chemical composition of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Trends in observed and simulated population-weighted mean PM2.5 composition over 1989-2013 are highly consistent for PM2.5 (-2.4 vs -2.4%/yr), secondary inorganic aerosols (-4.3 vs -4.1%/yr), organic aerosols (OA, -3.6 vs -3.0%/yr) and black carbon (-4.3 vs -3.9%/yr) over North America, as well as for sulfate (-4.7 vs -5.8%/yr) over Europe. Simulated trends over 1998-2013 also have overlapping 95% confidence intervals with satellite-derived trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5 for 20 of 21 global regions. Over 1989-2013, most (79%) of the simulated increase in global population-weighted mean PM2.5 of 0.28 µg m-3yr-1 is explained by significantly (p < 0.05) increasing OA (0.10 µg m-3yr-1), nitrate (0.05 µg m-3yr-1), sulfate (0.04 µg m-3yr-1), and ammonium (0.03 µg m-3yr-1). These four components predominantly drive trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5 over populous regions of South Asia (0.94 µg m-3yr-1), East Asia (0.66 µg m-3yr-1), Western Europe (-0.47 µg m-3yr-1), and North America (-0.32 µg m-3yr-1). Trends in area-weighted mean and population-weighted mean PM2.5 composition differ significantly.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Monitoramento Ambiental , Material Particulado , Ásia , Europa (Continente) , Extremo Oriente , América do Norte
8.
Faraday Discuss ; 200: 397-412, 2017 08 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28598475

RESUMO

The African continent is undergoing immense social and economic change, particularly regarding population growth and urbanization, where the urban population in Africa is anticipated to increase by a factor of 3 over the next 40 years. To understand the potential health impacts from this demographical shift and design efficient emission mitigation strategies, we used improved Africa-specific emissions that account for inefficient combustion sources for a number of sectors such as transportation, household energy generation, waste burning, and home heating and cooking. When these underrepresented emissions sources are combined with the current estimates of emissions in Africa, ambient particulate matter concentrations from present-day anthropogenic activity contribute to 13 210 annual premature deaths, with the largest contributions (38%) coming from residential emissions. By scaling both the population and the emissions for projected national-scale levels of growth, the predicted health impact grows to approximately 78 986 annual premature deaths by 2030 with 45% now resulting from emissions related to energy combustion. In order to mitigate this resulting increase in premature deaths, three scenarios have been developed which reduce sector-specific future emissions based on prior targets for technological improvements and emission controls in transportation, energy production and residential activities. These targeted potential mitigation strategies can avoid up to 37% of the estimated annual premature deaths by 2030 with the largest opportunity being a reduction of 10 868 annual deaths from switching half of the energy generation in South Africa to renewable technologies.

9.
Environ Sci Technol ; 50(19): 10739-10745, 2016 10 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27611340

RESUMO

Anthropogenic pollution in Africa is dominated by diffuse and inefficient combustion sources, as electricity access is low and motorcycles and outdated cars proliferate. These sources are missing, out-of-date, or misrepresented in state-of-the-science emission inventories. We address these deficiencies with a detailed inventory of Diffuse and Inefficient Combustion Emissions in Africa (DICE-Africa) for 2006 and 2013. Fuelwood for energy is the largest emission source in DICE-Africa, but grows from 2006 to 2013 at a slower rate than charcoal production and use, and gasoline and diesel for motorcycles, cars, and generators. Only kerosene use and gas flaring decline. Increase in emissions from 2006 to 2013 in this work is consistent with trends in satellite observations of formaldehyde and NO2, but much slower than the explosive growth projected with a fuel consumption model. Seasonal biomass burning is considered a large pollution source in Africa, but we estimate comparable emissions of black carbon and higher emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds from DICE-Africa. Nitrogen oxide (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) emissions are much lower than from biomass burning. We use GEOS-Chem to estimate that the largest contribution of DICE-Africa to annual mean surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is >5 µg m-3 in populous Nigeria.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Monitoramento Ambiental , África , Material Particulado , Fuligem , Emissões de Veículos
10.
Atmos Chem Phys ; 16(21): 13561-13577, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29619045

RESUMO

Ozone pollution in the Southeast US involves complex chemistry driven by emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide radicals (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) and biogenic isoprene. Model estimates of surface ozone concentrations tend to be biased high in the region and this is of concern for designing effective emission control strategies to meet air quality standards. We use detailed chemical observations from the SEAC4RS aircraft campaign in August and September 2013, interpreted with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at 0.25°×0.3125° horizontal resolution, to better understand the factors controlling surface ozone in the Southeast US. We find that the National Emission Inventory (NEI) for NOx from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is too high. This finding is based on SEAC4RS observations of NOx and its oxidation products, surface network observations of nitrate wet deposition fluxes, and OMI satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns. Our results indicate that NEI NOx emissions from mobile and industrial sources must be reduced by 30-60%, dependent on the assumption of the contribution by soil NOx emissions. Upper tropospheric NO2 from lightning makes a large contribution to satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 that must be accounted for when using these data to estimate surface NOx emissions. We find that only half of isoprene oxidation proceeds by the high-NOx pathway to produce ozone; this fraction is only moderately sensitive to changes in NOx emissions because isoprene and NOx emissions are spatially segregated. GEOS-Chem with reduced NOx emissions provides an unbiased simulation of ozone observations from the aircraft, and reproduces the observed ozone production efficiency in the boundary layer as derived from a regression of ozone and NOx oxidation products. However, the model is still biased high by 8±13 ppb relative to observed surface ozone in the Southeast US. Ozonesondes launched during midday hours show a 7 ppb ozone decrease from 1.5 km to the surface that GEOS-Chem does not capture. This bias may reflect a combination of excessive vertical mixing and net ozone production in the model boundary layer.

11.
J Hazard Mater ; 152(1): 293-301, 2008 Mar 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17681424

RESUMO

The adsorption of 4-nitrophenol using commercially available Amberlite IRA-900 modified with metal phthalocyanines (MPc) was investigated. The metallophthalocyanines immobilised onto the surface of Amberlite IRA-900 include Fe (FePcS4), Co (CoPcS4) and Ni (NiPcS4) tetrasulphophthalocyanines, and differently sulphonated phthalocyanine mixtures of Fe (FePcSmix), Co (CoPcSmix) and Ni (NiPcSmix). Adsorption rates were fastest for the modified adsorbents at a loading of 1x10(-3)g MPc/g Amberlite, at pH 9. The highest amount of 4-NP removal was obtained on FePcSmix modified Amberlite IRA-900 with Qt=42.9mmolg(-1) and adsorption efficiency of 86%. The recovery efficiency of 4-NP within 150min was 76%. Using the Langmuir-Hinshelwood kinetic model, the complexes showed an order of 4-nitrophenol adsorption to be as follows: CoPcSmix>NiPcS4>NiPcSmix>FePcS4>FePcSmix>CoPcS4. The MPc modified Amberlite IRA-900 was used repeatedly, following removal of 4-NP by nitric acid, without any significant loss of activity.


Assuntos
Indóis/química , Nitrofenóis/química , Resinas Sintéticas/química , Adsorção , Cromatografia Líquida de Alta Pressão , Cinética , Análise Espectral/métodos
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