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Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33466497


Bhutan experienced its largest and first nation-wide dengue epidemic in 2019. The cases in 2019 were greater than the total number of cases in all the previous years. This study aimed to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns and effective reproduction number of this explosive epidemic. Weekly notified dengue cases were extracted from the National Early Warning, Alert, Response and Surveillance (NEWARS) database to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of the epidemic. The time-varying, temperature-adjusted cohort effective reproduction number was estimated over the course of the epidemic. The dengue epidemic occurred between 29 April and 8 December 2019 over 32 weeks, and included 5935 cases. During the epidemic, dengue expanded from six to 44 subdistricts. The effective reproduction number was <3 for most of the epidemic period, except for a ≈1 month period of explosive growth, coinciding with the monsoon season and school vacations, when the effective reproduction number peaked >30 and after which the effective reproduction number declined steadily. Interventions were only initiated 6 weeks after the end of the period of explosive growth. This finding highlights the need to reinforce the national preparedness plan for outbreak response, and to enable the early detection of cases and timely response.

Dengue , Epidemias , Número Básico de Reprodução , Butão/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Humanos
Microb Drug Resist ; 2020 Sep 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32898460


The study investigates the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli in gastroenteritis patients in the eight most populous regions in Australia and compares the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in Europe and North America. A total of 164 Campylobacter isolates were collected from patients with campylobacteriosis and tested for susceptibility to six antimicrobials using ETEST® strips and compared with reports from Europe and the United States. Genomes were sequenced on Illumina NextSeq to identify genetic determinants of resistance. Phenotypically, 1.8%, 14.0%, 14.6%, and 20.1% of isolates were resistant to erythromycin (ERY), ampicillin, tetracycline (TET), and ciprofloxacin (CIP), respectively. Comparing published phenotypic results of antimicrobial resistance in several European countries and the United States with these Australian isolates reveals that rates observed in Australia are among the lowest observed for ERY, CIP, and TET for both C. coli and C. jejuni. For each antimicrobial tested, concordance between resistance phenotype and genotype ranged from 66.6% to 100.0%. This study highlights that, among industrialized countries, Portugal and Spain have very high levels of antimicrobial resistance in C. jejuni and C. coli, especially when compared with the United Kingdom, United States, and Australia.

PLoS One ; 15(7): e0236889, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32730330


Australian rates of campylobacteriosis are among the highest in developed countries, yet only limited work has been done to characterize Campylobacter spp. in Australian retail products. We performed whole genome sequencing (WGS) on 331 C. coli and 285 C. jejuni from retail chicken meat, as well as beef, chicken, lamb and pork offal (organs). Campylobacter isolates were highly diverse, with 113 sequence types (STs) including 38 novel STs, identified from 616 isolates. Genomic analysis suggests very low levels (2.3-15.3%) of resistance to aminoglycoside, beta-lactam, fluoroquinolone, macrolide and tetracycline antibiotics. A majority (>90%) of isolates (52/56) possessing the fluoroquinolone resistance-associated T86I mutation in the gyrA gene belonged to ST860, ST2083 or ST7323. The 44 pork offal isolates were highly diverse, representing 33 STs (11 novel STs) and harboured genes associated with resistance to aminoglycosides, lincosamides and macrolides not generally found in isolates from other sources. Prevalence of multidrug resistant genotypes was very low (<5%), but ten-fold higher in C. coli than C. jejuni. This study highlights that Campylobacter spp. from retail products in Australia are highly genotypically diverse and important differences in antimicrobial resistance exist between Campylobacter species and animal sources.

Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Infecções por Campylobacter/microbiologia , Campylobacter coli/genética , Campylobacter jejuni/genética , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana/genética , Carne/análise , Animais , Infecções por Campylobacter/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por Campylobacter/genética , Campylobacter coli/efeitos dos fármacos , Campylobacter coli/isolamento & purificação , Campylobacter jejuni/efeitos dos fármacos , Campylobacter jejuni/isolamento & purificação , Bovinos , Galinhas , DNA Bacteriano/genética , Microbiologia de Alimentos , Testes de Sensibilidade Microbiana , Carne Vermelha , Ovinos , Suínos , Sequenciamento Completo do Genoma
Theor Popul Biol ; 134: 182-194, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32304644


For many diseases, the basic reproduction number (R0) is a threshold parameter for disease extinction or survival in isolated populations. However no human population is fully isolated from other human or animal populations. We use compartmental models to derive simple rules for the basic reproduction number in populations where an endemic disease is sustained by a combination of local transmission within the population and exposure from some other source: either a reservoir exposure or imported cases. We introduce the idea of a reservoir-driven or importation-driven disease: diseases that would become extinct in the population of interest without reservoir exposure or imported cases (since R0<1), but nevertheless may be sufficiently transmissible that many or most infections are acquired from humans in that population. We show that in the simplest case, R0<1 if and only if the proportion of infections acquired from the external source exceeds the disease prevalence and explore how population heterogeneity and the interactions of multiple strains affect this rule. We apply these rules in two case studies of Clostridium difficile infection and colonisation: C. difficile in the hospital setting accounting for imported cases, and C. difficile in the general human population accounting for exposure to animal reservoirs. We demonstrate that even the hospital-adapted, highly-transmissible NAP1/RT027 strain of C. difficile had a reproduction number <1 in a landmark study of hospitalised patients and therefore was sustained by colonised and infected admissions to the study hospital. We argue that C. difficile should be considered reservoir-driven if as little as 13.0% of transmission can be attributed to animal reservoirs.

Bull Math Biol ; 79(10): 2242-2257, 2017 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28776206


Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) are some of the most common hospital-associated infections worldwide. Approximately 5% of the general population is colonised with the pathogen, but most are protected from disease by normal intestinal flora or immune responses to toxins. We developed a stochastic compartmental model of CDI in hospitals that captures the condition of the host's gut flora and the role of adaptive immune responses. A novel, derivative-based method for sensitivity analysis of individual-level outcomes was developed and applied to the model. The model reproduced the observed incidence and recurrence rates for hospitals with high and moderate incidence of hospital-acquired CDI. In both scenarios, the reproduction number for within-hospital transmission was less than 1 (0.67 and 0.44, respectively), but the proportion colonised with C. difficile at discharge (7.3 and 6.1%, respectively) exceeded the proportion colonised at admission (5%). The transmission and prevalence of CDI were most sensitive to the average length of stay and the transmission rate of the pathogen. Recurrent infections were most strongly affected by the treatment success rate and the immune profile of patients. Transmission within hospitals is substantial and leads to a net export of colonised individuals to the broader community. However, within-hospital transmission alone is insufficient to sustain endemic conditions in hospitals without the constant importation of colonised individuals. Improved hygiene practices to reduce transmission from symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals and reduced length of stay are most likely to reduce within-hospital transmission and infections; however, these interventions are likely to have a smaller effect on the probability of recurrence. Immunising inpatients against the toxins produced by C. difficile will reduce the incidence of CDI but may increase transmission.

Infecções por Clostridium/transmissão , Infecção Hospitalar/transmissão , Modelos Biológicos , Imunidade Adaptativa , Número Básico de Reprodução , Infecções por Clostridium/epidemiologia , Infecções por Clostridium/imunologia , Infecção Hospitalar/epidemiologia , Infecção Hospitalar/imunologia , Humanos , Incidência , Conceitos Matemáticos , Recidiva , Processos Estocásticos