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1.
Nat Microbiol ; 4(9): 1508-1515, 2019 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31182801

RESUMO

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.

3.
Nat Microbiol ; 4(5): 854-863, 2019 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30833735

RESUMO

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.


Assuntos
Aedes/virologia , Infecções por Arbovirus/transmissão , Arbovirus/fisiologia , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Aedes/classificação , Aedes/fisiologia , Animais , Infecções por Arbovirus/virologia , Arbovirus/genética , Feminino , Humanos , Mosquitos Vetores/classificação , Mosquitos Vetores/fisiologia
4.
Nat Microbiol ; 4(5): 900, 2019 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30903094

RESUMO

In the version of this Article originally published, the affiliation for author Catherine Linard was incorrectly stated as '6Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK'. The correct affiliation is '9Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium'. The affiliation for author Hongjie Yu was also incorrectly stated as '11Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA'. The correct affiliation is '15School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China'. This has now been amended in all versions of the Article.

5.
Lancet ; 390(10113): 2662-2672, 2017 Dec 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29031848

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease. METHODS: In this multistage analysis, we quantified three stages underlying the potential of widespread viral haemorrhagic fever epidemics. Environmental suitability maps were used to define stage 1, index-case potential, which assesses populations at risk of infection due to spillover from zoonotic hosts or vectors, identifying where index cases could present. Stage 2, outbreak potential, iterates upon an existing framework, the Index for Risk Management, to measure potential for secondary spread in people within specific communities. For stage 3, epidemic potential, we combined local and international scale connectivity assessments with stage 2 to evaluate possible spread of local outbreaks nationally, regionally, and internationally. FINDINGS: We found epidemic potential to vary within Africa, with regions where viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks have previously occurred (eg, western Africa) and areas currently considered non-endemic (eg, Cameroon and Ethiopia) both ranking highly. Tracking transitions between stages showed how an index case can escalate into a widespread epidemic in the absence of intervention (eg, Nigeria and Guinea). Our analysis showed Chad, Somalia, and South Sudan to be highly susceptible to any outbreak at subnational levels. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis provides a unified assessment of potential epidemic trajectories, with the aim of allowing national and international agencies to pre-emptively evaluate needs and target resources. Within each country, our framework identifies at-risk subnational locations in which to improve surveillance, diagnostic capabilities, and health systems in parallel with the design of policies for optimal responses at each stage. In conjunction with pandemic preparedness activities, assessments such as ours can identify regions where needs and provisions do not align, and thus should be targeted for future strengthening and support. FUNDING: Paul G Allen Family Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development.


Assuntos
Febres Hemorrágicas Virais/epidemiologia , Pandemias , África/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Medição de Risco
6.
Nat Microbiol ; 1: 15008, 2016 Jan 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27571754

RESUMO

Burkholderia pseudomallei, a highly pathogenic bacterium that causes melioidosis, is commonly found in soil in Southeast Asia and Northern Australia(1,2). Melioidosis can be difficult to diagnose due to its diverse clinical manifestations and the inadequacy of conventional bacterial identification methods(3). The bacterium is intrinsically resistant to a wide range of antimicrobials, and treatment with ineffective antimicrobials may result in case fatality rates (CFRs) exceeding 70%(4,5). The importation of infected animals has, in the past, spread melioidosis to non-endemic areas(6,7). The global distribution of B. pseudomallei and the burden of melioidosis, however, remain poorly understood. Here, we map documented human and animal cases and the presence of environmental B. pseudomallei and combine this in a formal modelling framework(8-10) to estimate the global burden of melioidosis. We estimate there to be 165,000 (95% credible interval 68,000-412,000) human melioidosis cases per year worldwide, from which 89,000 (36,000-227,000) people die. Our estimates suggest that melioidosis is severely underreported in the 45 countries in which it is known to be endemic and that melioidosis is probably endemic in a further 34 countries that have never reported the disease. The large numbers of estimated cases and fatalities emphasize that the disease warrants renewed attention from public health officials and policy makers.


Assuntos
Burkholderia pseudomallei/isolamento & purificação , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Melioidose/epidemiologia , Melioidose/veterinária , Topografia Médica , Animais , Burkholderia pseudomallei/classificação , Microbiologia Ambiental , Saúde Global , Humanos , Melioidose/microbiologia , Mortalidade
7.
Elife ; 52016 04 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27090089

RESUMO

Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.


Assuntos
Meio Ambiente , Mosquitos Vetores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/transmissão , Zika virus/fisiologia , Animais , Saúde Global , Humanos , Clima Tropical
8.
Science ; 352(6283): 345-349, 2016 Apr 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27013429

RESUMO

Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), with ~30,000 cases reported to date. ZIKV was first detected in Brazil in May 2015, and cases of microcephaly potentially associated with ZIKV infection were identified in November 2015. We performed next-generation sequencing to generate seven Brazilian ZIKV genomes sampled from four self-limited cases, one blood donor, one fatal adult case, and one newborn with microcephaly and congenital malformations. Results of phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses show a single introduction of ZIKV into the Americas, which we estimated to have occurred between May and December 2013, more than 12 months before the detection of ZIKV in Brazil. The estimated date of origin coincides with an increase in air passengers to Brazil from ZIKV-endemic areas, as well as with reported outbreaks in the Pacific Islands. ZIKV genomes from Brazil are phylogenetically interspersed with those from other South American and Caribbean countries. Mapping mutations onto existing structural models revealed the context of viral amino acid changes present in the outbreak lineage; however, no shared amino acid changes were found among the three currently available virus genomes from microcephaly cases. Municipality-level incidence data indicate that reports of suspected microcephaly in Brazil best correlate with ZIKV incidence around week 17 of pregnancy, although this correlation does not demonstrate causation. Our genetic description and analysis of ZIKV isolates in Brazil provide a baseline for future studies of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of this emerging virus in the Americas.


Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Microcefalia/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/virologia , Zika virus/genética , Aedes/virologia , Américas/epidemiologia , Animais , Feminino , Genoma Viral/genética , Humanos , Incidência , Insetos Vetores/virologia , Microcefalia/virologia , Epidemiologia Molecular , Dados de Sequência Molecular , Mutação , Ilhas do Pacífico/epidemiologia , Filogenia , Gravidez , RNA Viral/genética , Análise de Sequência de RNA , Viagem , Zika virus/classificação , Zika virus/isolamento & purificação , Infecção por Zika virus/transmissão
9.
Nat Microbiol ; 1(1)2016 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26877885

RESUMO

Burkholderia pseudomallei, a highly pathogenic bacterium that causes melioidosis, is commonly found in soil in Southeast Asia and Northern Australia1,2. Melioidosis can be difficult to diagnose due to its diverse clinical manifestations and the inadequacy of conventional bacterial identification methods3. The bacterium is intrinsically resistant to a wide range of antimicrobials, and treatment with ineffective antimicrobials may result in case fatality rates (CFRs) exceeding 70%4,5. The importation of infected animals has, in the past, spread melioidosis to non-endemic areas6,7. The global distribution of B. pseudomallei and burden of melioidosis, however, remain poorly understood. Here, we map documented human and animal cases, and the presence of environmental B. pseudomallei, and combine this in a formal modelling framework8-10 to estimate the global burden of melioidosis. We estimate there to be 165,000 (95% credible interval 68,000-412,000) human melioidosis cases per year worldwide, of which 89,000 (36,000-227,000) die. Our estimates suggest that melioidosis is severely underreported in the 45 countries in which it is known to be endemic and that melioidosis is likely endemic in a further 34 countries which have never reported the disease. The large numbers of estimated cases and fatalities emphasise that the disease warrants renewed attention from public health officials and policy makers.

10.
Sci Data ; 2: 150035, 2015.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26175912

RESUMO

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the main vectors transmitting dengue and chikungunya viruses. Despite being pathogens of global public health importance, knowledge of their vectors' global distribution remains patchy and sparse. A global geographic database of known occurrences of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus between 1960 and 2014 was compiled. Herein we present the database, which comprises occurrence data linked to point or polygon locations, derived from peer-reviewed literature and unpublished studies including national entomological surveys and expert networks. We describe all data collection processes, as well as geo-positioning methods, database management and quality-control procedures. This is the first comprehensive global database of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence, consisting of 19,930 and 22,137 geo-positioned occurrence records respectively. Both datasets can be used for a variety of mapping and spatial analyses of the vectors and, by inference, the diseases they transmit.


Assuntos
Aedes , Vírus Chikungunya , Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Insetos Vetores , Animais , Bases de Dados Factuais , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/transmissão , Humanos
11.
Elife ; 4: e08347, 2015 Jun 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26126267

RESUMO

Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.


Assuntos
Aedes/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Insetos Vetores , Filogeografia , Animais , Infecções por Arbovirus/transmissão , Saúde Global , Humanos
12.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg ; 109(8): 503-13, 2015 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26142451

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne infection caused by a virus (CCHFV) from the Bunyaviridae family. Domestic and wild vertebrates are asymptomatic reservoirs for the virus, putting animal handlers, slaughter-house workers and agricultural labourers at highest risk in endemic areas, with secondary transmission possible through contact with infected blood and other bodily fluids. Human infection is characterized by severe symptoms that often result in death. While it is known that CCHFV transmission is limited to Africa, Asia and Europe, definitive global extents and risk patterns within these limits have not been well described. METHODS: We used an exhaustive database of human CCHF occurrence records and a niche modeling framework to map the global distribution of risk for human CCHF occurrence. RESULTS: A greater proportion of shrub or grass land cover was the most important contributor to our model, which predicts highest levels of risk around the Black Sea, Turkey, and some parts of central Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa shows more focalized areas of risk throughout the Sahel and the Cape region. CONCLUSIONS: These new risk maps provide a valuable starting point for understanding the zoonotic niche of CCHF, its extent and the risk it poses to humans.


Assuntos
Vetores Aracnídeos/virologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Saúde Global , Vírus da Febre Hemorrágica da Crimeia-Congo/patogenicidade , Febre Hemorrágica da Crimeia/transmissão , Doenças Profissionais/prevenção & controle , Exposição Ocupacional/prevenção & controle , Matadouros , Criação de Animais Domésticos , Animais , Fazendeiros , Geografia , Febre Hemorrágica da Crimeia/sangue , Febre Hemorrágica da Crimeia/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Doenças Profissionais/virologia , Filogenia , Carrapatos/virologia
13.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg ; 109(8): 483-92, 2015 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26085474

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic illness responsible for disease outbreaks across West Africa. It is a zoonosis, with the primary reservoir species identified as the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. The host is distributed across sub-Saharan Africa while the virus' range appears to be restricted to West Africa. The majority of infections result from interactions between the animal reservoir and human populations, although secondary transmission between humans can occur, particularly in hospital settings. METHODS: Using a species distribution model, the locations of confirmed human and animal infections with Lassa virus (LASV) were used to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential across sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Our results predict that 37.7 million people in 14 countries, across much of West Africa, live in areas where conditions are suitable for zoonotic transmission of LASV. Four of these countries, where at-risk populations are predicted, have yet to report any cases of Lassa fever. CONCLUSIONS: These maps act as a spatial guide for future surveillance activities to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease and understand the anthropological, virological and zoological interactions necessary for viral transmission. Combining this zoonotic niche map with detailed patient travel histories can aid differential diagnoses of febrile illnesses, enabling a more rapid response in providing care and reducing the risk of onward transmission.


Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Febre Lassa/transmissão , Vírus Lassa/isolamento & purificação , Vigilância da População/métodos , Doenças dos Roedores/epidemiologia , Topografia Médica , Animais , Análise por Conglomerados , Reservatórios de Doenças , Humanos , Febre Lassa/epidemiologia , Murinae , Doenças dos Roedores/virologia , Zoonoses
14.
Sci Data ; 2: 150016, 2015.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25977820

RESUMO

In order to map global disease risk, a geographic database of human Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) occurrence was produced by surveying peer-reviewed literature and case reports, as well as informal online sources. Here we present this database, comprising occurrence data linked to geographic point or polygon locations dating from 1953 to 2013. We fully describe all data collection, geo-positioning, database management and quality-control procedures. This is the most comprehensive database of confirmed CCHF occurrence in humans to-date, containing 1,721 geo-positioned occurrences in total.


Assuntos
Bases de Dados Factuais , Vírus da Febre Hemorrágica da Crimeia-Congo , Febre Hemorrágica da Crimeia , Mapeamento Geográfico , Vírus da Febre Hemorrágica da Crimeia-Congo/isolamento & purificação , Febre Hemorrágica da Crimeia/epidemiologia , Febre Hemorrágica da Crimeia/virologia , Humanos
15.
Nat Rev Microbiol ; 13(4): 230-9, 2015 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25730702

RESUMO

Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Animais , Dengue/transmissão , Dengue/virologia , Previsões , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos
16.
Hepatology ; 61(1): 77-87, 2015 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25069599

RESUMO

UNLABELLED: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) exhibits high genetic diversity, characterized by regional variations in genotype prevalence. This poses a challenge to the improved development of vaccines and pan-genotypic treatments, which require the consideration of global trends in HCV genotype prevalence. Here we provide the first comprehensive survey of these trends. To approximate national HCV genotype prevalence, studies published between 1989 and 2013 reporting HCV genotypes are reviewed and combined with overall HCV prevalence estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project. We also generate regional and global genotype prevalence estimates, inferring data for countries lacking genotype information. We include 1,217 studies in our analysis, representing 117 countries and 90% of the global population. We calculate that HCV genotype 1 is the most prevalent worldwide, comprising 83.4 million cases (46.2% of all HCV cases), approximately one-third of which are in East Asia. Genotype 3 is the next most prevalent globally (54.3 million, 30.1%); genotypes 2, 4, and 6 are responsible for a total 22.8% of all cases; genotype 5 comprises the remaining <1%. While genotypes 1 and 3 dominate in most countries irrespective of economic status, the largest proportions of genotypes 4 and 5 are in lower-income countries. CONCLUSION: Although genotype 1 is most common worldwide, nongenotype 1 HCV cases­which are less well served by advances in vaccine and drug development­still comprise over half of all HCV cases. Relative genotype proportions are needed to inform healthcare models, which must be geographically tailored to specific countries or regions in order to improve access to new treatments. Genotype surveillance data are needed from many countries to improve estimates of unmet need.


Assuntos
Hepacivirus/genética , Hepatite C/virologia , Genótipo , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Humanos , Internacionalidade , Prevalência
17.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 20(10)2014 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25271370

RESUMO

An expert conference on Dengue in Africa was held in Accra, Ghana, in February 2013 to consider key questions regarding the possible expansion of dengue in Africa. Four key action points were highlighted to advance our understanding of the epidemiology of dengue in Africa. First, dengue diagnostic tools must be made more widely available in the healthcare setting in Africa. Second, representative data need to be collected across Africa to uncover the true burden of dengue. Third, established networks should collaborate to produce these types of data. Fourth, policy needs to be informed so the necessary steps can be taken to provide dengue vector control and health services.


Assuntos
Dengue/diagnóstico , Dengue/epidemiologia , Aedes , África/epidemiologia , Animais , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Vírus da Dengue , Surtos de Doenças , Doenças Endêmicas , Política de Saúde , Humanos , Incidência , Controle de Mosquitos
18.
Parasit Vectors ; 7: 338, 2014 Jul 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25052008

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a disease that has undergone significant expansion over the past hundred years. Understanding what factors limit the distribution of transmission can be used to predict current and future limits to further dengue expansion. While not the only factor, temperature plays an important role in defining these limits. Previous attempts to analyse the effect of temperature on the geographic distribution of dengue have not considered its dynamic intra-annual and diurnal change and its cumulative effects on mosquito and virus populations. METHODS: Here we expand an existing modelling framework with new temperature-based relationships to model an index proportional to the basic reproductive number of the dengue virus. This model framework is combined with high spatial and temporal resolution global temperature data to model the effects of temperature on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission. RESULTS: Our model predicted areas where temperature is not expected to permit transmission and/or Aedes persistence throughout the year. By reanalysing existing experimental data our analysis indicates that Ae. albopictus, often considered a minor vector of dengue, has comparable rates of virus dissemination to its primary vector, Ae. aegypti, and when the longer lifespan of Ae. albopictus is considered its competence for dengue virus transmission far exceeds that of Ae. aegypti. CONCLUSIONS: These results can be used to analyse the effects of temperature and other contributing factors on the expansion of dengue or its Aedes vectors. Our finding that Ae. albopictus has a greater capacity for dengue transmission than Ae. aegypti is contrary to current explanations for the comparative rarity of dengue transmission in established Ae. albopictus populations. This suggests that the limited capacity of Ae. albopictus to transmit DENV is more dependent on its ecology than vector competence. The recommendations, which we explicitly outlined here, point to clear targets for entomological investigation.


Assuntos
Aedes/fisiologia , Aedes/virologia , Vírus da Dengue/fisiologia , Dengue/transmissão , Temperatura Ambiente , Animais , Saúde Global , Modelos Biológicos , Estações do Ano
19.
Nat Commun ; 5: 4116, 2014 Jun 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24937647

RESUMO

Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease.


Assuntos
Subtipo H7N9 do Vírus da Influenza A , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Aviária/transmissão , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Modelos Estatísticos , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Animais , Ásia/epidemiologia , Biovigilância/métodos , Comércio , Abastecimento de Alimentos , Geografia , Humanos , Influenza Humana/transmissão , Aves Domésticas , Análise de Regressão , Medição de Risco , Zoonoses/transmissão
20.
Elife ; 32014 Jun 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24972829

RESUMO

The leishmaniases are vector-borne diseases that have a broad global distribution throughout much of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Despite representing a significant public health burden, our understanding of the global distribution of the leishmaniases remains vague, reliant upon expert opinion and limited to poor spatial resolution. A global assessment of the consensus of evidence for leishmaniasis was performed at a sub-national level by aggregating information from a variety of sources. A database of records of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis occurrence was compiled from published literature, online reports, strain archives, and GenBank accessions. These, with a suite of biologically relevant environmental covariates, were used in a boosted regression tree modelling framework to generate global environmental risk maps for the leishmaniases. These high-resolution evidence-based maps can help direct future surveillance activities, identify areas to target for disease control and inform future burden estimation efforts.


Assuntos
Leishmaniose Cutânea/epidemiologia , Leishmaniose Visceral/epidemiologia , Animais , Reservatórios de Doenças , Meio Ambiente , Geografia , Saúde Global , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Psychodidae , Saúde Pública , Análise de Regressão
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