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Sci Rep ; 10(1): 4956, 2020 03 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32188901


Literature on earthquake impact on hospital admissions is lacking, particularly in low-resource settings. Our aim was to study the pattern of admissions before and after the 2015 earthquake in a tertiary hospital in Nepal. We used routine hospital data from 9,596 admissions, and defined four periods: pre-earthquake (pre-EQ), acute (EQ1), post-acute (EQ2), and post-earthquake (post-EQ). We compared length of hospital stay (LOS) across the study periods using negative binomial regressions. We used logistic regressions to study changes in probability of admission for diagnostic categories, and Generalized Additive Models to model the difference in number of admissions compared to pre-EQ baseline. LOS was longer in EQ1 than during pre-EQ, in particular for injury-related admissions. In EQ1, the odds of injury admissions increased, while they decreased for the majority of other diagnoses, with the odds of pregnancy-related admissions remaining low until post-EQ. The number of admissions dropped in EQ1 and EQ2, and returned to pre-EQ trends in post-EQ, accumulating 381 admissions lost (CI: 206-556). Our findings suggest that hospital disaster plans must not only foresee injury management after earthquakes, but also ensure accessibility, in particular for pregnant women, and promote a quick return to normality to prevent additional negative health outcomes.

Assistência à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Planejamento em Desastres/normas , Terremotos , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Admissão do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Centros de Atenção Terciária/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Assistência à Saúde/tendências , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/tendências , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Tempo de Internação , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nepal , Admissão do Paciente/tendências , Gravidez , Adulto Jovem
J Infect ; 80(3): 326-332, 2020 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31958541


OBJECTIVE: To estimate the time-dependent measles effective reproduction number (Rt) as an indicator of the impact of three outbreak response vaccination (ORV) campaigns on measles transmission during a nationwide outbreak in Guinea. METHODS: Rt represents the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a partially immune population during a given time period. Measles Rt was estimated using daily incidence data for 3952 outbreak-associated measles cases in Guinea in 2017 for the time periods prior to, between, and following each of three ORV campaigns using a simple and extensible mathematical model. RESULTS: Rt was estimated to be above the threshold value of 1 during the initial growth period of the outbreak until the first ORV campaign began on March 13 (Rt = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.55-1.67). It subsequently dropped below 1 and remained <1 through the end of the year (range: 0.71-0.91), although low levels of transmission persisted. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction in Rt coincided with implementation of the ORV campaigns, indicating success of the campaigns at maintaining measles transmission intensity below epidemic growth levels. However, persistent measles transmission remains an issue in Guinea due to insufficient levels of herd immunity. Estimation of Rt should be further leveraged to help decision makers and field staff understand outbreak progress and the timing and type of vaccination efforts needed to halt transmission.

PLoS One ; 14(7): e0220016, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31318948


BACKGROUND: In 2015, an earthquake killing 9,000 and injuring 22,000 people hit Nepal. The Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital (TUTH), a reference tertiary hospital, was operational immediately after the earthquake. We studied the profile of earthquake victims admitted in TUTH and assessed what factors could influence hospital length of stay. METHODS: An earthquake victim dataset was created based on patient records, with information on sex, age, date of admission and discharge, diagnosis, and surgical intervention. We performed an initial descriptive overview of the earthquake victims followed by a time-to-event analysis to compare length of hospital stay in different groups, using log rank test and cox regression to calculate Hazard Ratios. RESULTS: There were in total 501 admitted victims, with the peak of admissions occurring on the fifth day after the earthquake. About 89% had injury as main diagnosis, mostly in lower limbs, and 66% of all injuries were fractures. Nearly 69% of all patients underwent surgery. The median length of hospital stay was 10 days. Lower limb and trunk injuries had longer hospital stays than injuries in the head and neck (HR = 0.68, p = 0.009, and HR = 0.62 p = 0.005, respectively). Plastic surgeries had longer hospital stays than orthopaedic surgeries (HR = 0.57 p = 0.006). Having a crush injury and undergoing an amputation also increased time to discharge (HR = 0.57, p = 0.013, and HR = 0.65 p = 0.045 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Hospital stay was particularly long in this sample in comparison to other studies on earthquake victims, indirectly indicating the high burden TUTH had to bear to treat these patients. To strengthen resilience, tertiary hospitals should have preparedness plans to cope with a large influx of injured patients after a large-scale disaster, in particular for the initial days when there is limited external aid.

Vítimas de Desastres/estatística & dados numéricos , Terremotos , Hospitalização , Centros de Atenção Terciária , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Demografia , Vítimas de Desastres/história , Feminino , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Registros Médicos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nepal/epidemiologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Adulto Jovem
J Burn Care Res ; 40(6): 869-877, 2019 10 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31211825


Burn disaster is defined as a massive influx of patients that exceeds a burn center's capacity and capability. This study investigates the capacity and capability of burn centers to respond to burn disasters in the Belgian ground. Quantitative survey and qualitative semistructured interview questionnaires were administered directly to key informants of burn centers. The data collected from both methods were compared to get a more in-depth overview of the issue. Quantitative data were converted into a narrative to enrich the qualitative data and included in the thematic analysis. Finally, data from both methods were analyzed and organized into five themes. The Belgian Association of Burn Injury (BABI) has a specific prehospital plan for burn disaster management. Once the BABI Plan is activated, all burn centers respond as one entity. Burn Team (B-Team) is a professional team that is formed in case of urgent need and it is deployed to a scene or to nonburn specialized hospitals to help in disaster relief. The challenges for burn disasters response occur particularly in the area of triage, transfer, communication, funding, and training. We conclude that there is a variation in the capacity and capability of burn centers. Overall, the system of burn disaster management is advanced and it is comparable to other high-income countries. Nevertheless, further improvement in the areas of preparation, triage, communication, and finally training would make disaster response more resilient in the future. Therefore, there is still space for further improvement of the management of burn disasters in Belgium.