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1.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 8(22): e012881, 2019 Nov 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31711385

RESUMO

Background Synthesized fatty acids (FAs) from de novo lipogenesis may affect cardiometabolic health, but longitudinal associations between serially measured de novo lipogenesis-related fatty acid biomarkers and mortality or cardiovascular disease (CVD) are not well established. Methods and Results We investigated longitudinal associations between de novo lipogenesis-related fatty acids with all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and incident CVD among 3869 older US adults, mean (SD) age 75 (5) years and free of prevalent CVD at baseline. Levels of plasma phospholipid palmitic (16:0), palmitoleic (16:1n-7), stearic (18:0), oleic acid (18:1n-9), and other risk factors were serially measured at baseline, 6 years, and 13 years. All-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and incident fatal and nonfatal CVD were centrally adjudicated. Risk was assessed in multivariable-adjusted Cox models with time-varying FAs and covariates. During 13 years, median follow-up (maximum 22.4 years), participants experienced 3227 deaths (1131 CVD, 2096 non-CVD) and 1753 incident CVD events. After multivariable adjustment, higher cumulative levels of 16:0, 16:1n-7, and 18:1n-9 were associated with higher all-cause mortality, with extreme-quintile hazard ratios (95% CIs) of 1.35 (1.17-1.56), 1.40 (1.21-1.62), and 1.56 (1.35-1.80), respectively, whereas higher levels of 18:0 were associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio=0.76; 95% CI=0.66-0.88). Associations were generally similar for CVD mortality versus non-CVD mortality, as well as total incident CVD. Changes in levels of 16:0 were positively, and 18:0 inversely, associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio=1.23, 95% CI=1.08-1.41; and hazard ratio=0.78, 95% CI=0.68-0.90). Conclusions Higher long-term levels of 16:0, 16:1n-7, and 18:1n-9 and changes in 16:0 were positively, whereas long-term levels and changes in 18:0 were inversely, associated with all-cause mortality in older adults.

2.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 8(21): e012727, 2019 Nov 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31658854

RESUMO

Background The US population is aging, with concurrent increases in cardiovascular disease (CVD) burdens; however, spatiotemporal and demographic trends in CVD incidence in the US elderly have not been investigated in detail. This study aims to characterize trends from 1991 to 2014 in CVD hospitalizations among US Medicare beneficiaries, aged 65+ years, by single year of age/sex/race/state using records from the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid, covering 98% of older Americans. Methods and Results We abstracted 181 202 758 US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid hospitalization records indicating CVD in any of 10 diagnosis codes; tabulated total cases of CVD by sex, age, race, state, and calendar year (1991-2014); and normalized hospitalization counts to standardize over data batches. Stratum-specific hospitalization rates were calculated using US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid records and US Census population counts; a cubic polynomial function was fit to year-specific distributions of rates by single year of age. Nationwide, CVD-related hospitalization rates increased from 1991 to 2014. Differences between hospitalization rates at age 65 and 66 years, representing magnitude of healthcare deferral until Medicare onset, increased by 7.49 per 100 people 1991 to 2006 overall, and were largest among blacks and Native Americans. Rates of CVD hospitalizations were consistently highest in the Midwest/Deep South. Evidence of misclassification of race/ethnicity in US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid hospitalization records in the 1990s was noted. Conclusions Trends in CVD-related hospitalization rates among older Americans highlight the essential need for targeted policies to reduce CVD burdens, to improve reporting of race/ethnicity in large administrative databases, and to enhance access to affordable healthcare.

3.
J Nutr ; 2019 Oct 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31618417

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Very-long-chain SFAs (VLCSFAs), such as arachidic acid (20:0), behenic acid (22:0), and lignoceric acid (24:0), have demonstrated inverse associations with cardiometabolic conditions, although more evidence is needed to characterize their relation with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). In addition, little is known regarding their potential dietary and lifestyle predictors. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine the association of plasma and erythrocyte concentrations of VLCSFAs with incident T2D risk. METHODS: We used existing measurements of fatty acid concentrations in plasma and erythrocytes among 2854 and 2831 participants in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS), respectively. VLCSFAs were measured using GLC, and individual fatty acid concentrations were expressed as a percentage of total fatty acids. Incident T2D cases were identified by self-reports and confirmed by a validated supplementary questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the association between VLCSFAs and T2D, adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, and dietary variables. RESULTS: During 39,941 person-years of follow-up, we documented 243 cases of T2D. Intakes of peanuts, peanut butter, vegetable fat, dairy fat, and palmitic/stearic (16:0-18:0) fatty acids were significantly, albeit weakly, correlated with plasma and erythrocyte VLCSFA concentrations (|rs| ≤ 0.19). Comparing the highest with the lowest quartiles of plasma concentrations, pooled HRs (95% CIs) were 0.51 (0.35, 0.75) for arachidic acid, 0.43 (0.28, 0.64) for behenic acid, 0.40 (0.27, 0.61) for lignoceric acid, and 0.41 (0.27, 0.61) for the sum of VLCSFAs, after multivariate adjustments for demographic, lifestyle, and dietary factors. For erythrocyte VLCSFAs, only arachidic acid and behenic acid concentrations were inversely associated with T2D risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that, in US men and women, higher plasma concentrations of VLCSFAs are associated with lower risk of T2D. More research is needed to understand the mechanistic pathways underlying these associations.

4.
Am J Prev Med ; 57(5): e143-e152, 2019 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31564600

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Processed meats are associated with increased risk of colorectal and stomach cancers, but health and economic impacts of policies to discourage processed meats are not well established. This paper aims to evaluate the cost effectiveness of implementing tax and warning labels on processed meats. METHODS: A probabilistic cohort-state transition model was developed in 2018, including lifetime and short-term horizons, healthcare, and societal perspectives, and 3% discount rates for costs and health outcomes. The model simulated 32 subgroups by age, gender, and race/ethnicity from the U.S. adult population and integrated nationally representative 2011-2014 data on processed meat consumption, with etiologic effects of processed meat consumption on cancer incidence, medical and indirect societal costs, and policy costs. RESULTS: Over a lifetime, the 10% excise tax would prevent 77,000 cases of colorectal cancer (95% uncertainty interval=56,800, 107,000) and 12,500 cases of stomach cancer (95% uncertainty interval=6,880, 23,900), add 593,000 quality-adjusted life years (95% uncertainty interval=419,000, 827,000), and generate net savings of $2.7 billion from a societal perspective, including $1.1 billion healthcare costs saved. The warning label policy would avert 85,400 cases of colorectal cancer (95% uncertainty interval=56,600, 141,000) and 15,000 cases of stomach cancer (95% uncertainty interval=6,860, 34,500), and add 660,000 quality-adjusted life years (95% uncertainty interval=418,000, 1,070,000), with net savings of $4.5 billion from a societal perspective, including $1.3 billion healthcare costs saved. In subgroup analyses, greater health and economic benefits accrued to (1) younger subpopulations, (2) subpopulations with greater cancer risk, and (3) those with higher baseline processed meat consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The model shows that implementing tax or warning labels on processed meats would be a cost-saving strategy with substantial health and economic benefits. The findings should encourage policy makers to consider nutrition-related policies to reduce cancer burden.

5.
Adv Nutr ; 10(5): 917S-923S, 2019 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31518410

RESUMO

In the 20th century, scientific and geopolitical events led to the concept of food as a delivery system for calories and specific isolated nutrients. As a result, conventional dietary guidelines have focused on individual nutrients to maintain health and prevent disease. For dairy foods, this has led to general dietary recommendations to consume 2-3 daily servings of reduced-fat dairy foods, without regard to type (e.g., yogurt, cheese, milk), largely based on theorized benefits of isolated nutrients for bone health (e.g., calcium, vitamin D) and theorized harms of isolated nutrients for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and obesity (e.g., total fat, saturated fat, total calories). However, advances in nutrition science have demonstrated that foods represent complex matrices of nutrients, minerals, bioactives, food structures, and other factors (e.g., phoshopholipids, prebiotics, probiotics) with correspondingly complex effects on health and disease. The present evidence suggests that whole-fat dairy foods do not cause weight gain, that overall dairy consumption increases lean body mass and reduces body fat, that yogurt consumption and probiotics reduce weight gain, that fermented dairy consumption including cheese is linked to lower CVD risk, and that yogurt, cheese, and even dairy fat may protect against type 2 diabetes. Based on the current science, dairy consumption is part of a healthy diet, without strong evidence to favor reduced-fat products; while intakes of probiotic-containing unsweetened and fermented dairy products such as yogurt and cheese appear especially beneficial.

6.
JAMA ; 322(12): 1178-1187, 2019 09 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31550032

RESUMO

Importance: Changes in the economy, nutrition policies, and food processing methods can affect dietary macronutrient intake and diet quality. It is essential to evaluate trends in dietary intake, food sources, and diet quality to inform policy makers. Objective: To investigate trends in dietary macronutrient intake, food sources, and diet quality among US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional analysis of the US nationally representative 24-hour dietary recall data from 9 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cycles (1999-2016) among adults aged 20 years or older. Exposure: Survey cycle. Main Outcomes and Measures: Dietary intake of macronutrients and their subtypes, food sources, and the Healthy Eating Index 2015 (range, 0-100; higher scores indicate better diet quality; a minimal clinically important difference has not been defined). Results: There were 43 996 respondents (weighted mean age, 46.9 years; 51.9% women). From 1999 to 2016, the estimated energy from total carbohydrates declined from 52.5% to 50.5% (difference, -2.02%; 95% CI, -2.41% to -1.63%), whereas that of total protein and total fat increased from 15.5% to 16.4% (difference, 0.82%; 95% CI, 0.67%-0.97%) and from 32.0% to 33.2% (difference, 1.20%; 95% CI, 0.84%-1.55%), respectively (all P < .001 for trend). Estimated energy from low-quality carbohydrates decreased by 3.25% (95% CI, 2.74%-3.75%; P < .001 for trend) from 45.1% to 41.8%. Increases were observed in estimated energy from high-quality carbohydrates (by 1.23% [95% CI, 0.84%-1.61%] from 7.42% to 8.65%), plant protein (by 0.38% [95% CI, 0.28%-0.49%] from 5.38% to 5.76%), saturated fatty acids (by 0.36% [95% CI, 0.20%-0.51%] from 11.5% to 11.9%), and polyunsaturated fatty acids (by 0.65% [95% CI, 0.56%-0.74%] from 7.58% to 8.23%) (all P < .001 for trend). The estimated overall Healthy Eating Index 2015 increased from 55.7 to 57.7 (difference, 2.01; 95% CI, 0.86-3.16; P < .001 for trend). Trends in high- and low-quality carbohydrates primarily reflected higher estimated energy from whole grains (0.65%) and reduced estimated energy from added sugars (-2.00%), respectively. Trends in plant protein were predominantly due to higher estimated intake of whole grains (0.12%) and nuts (0.09%). Conclusions and Relevance: From 1999 to 2016, US adults experienced a significant decrease in percentage of energy intake from low-quality carbohydrates and significant increases in percentage of energy intake from high-quality carbohydrates, plant protein, and polyunsaturated fat. Despite improvements in macronutrient composition and diet quality, continued high intake of low-quality carbohydrates and saturated fat remained.


Assuntos
Dieta/tendências , Carboidratos da Dieta , Gorduras na Dieta , Proteínas na Dieta , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Estudos Transversais , Ingestão de Energia , Feminino , Dieta Saudável/tendências , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Estados Unidos , Adulto Jovem
8.
BMJ Open ; 9(8): e026390, 2019 Aug 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31399449

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To quantify global relationships between sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake and prices and examine the potential effectiveness of tax policy. DESIGN: SSB intake data by country, age and sex from the Global Dietary Database were combined with gross domestic product and price data from the World Bank. Intake responsiveness to income and prices was estimated accounting for national income, age and sex differences. SETTING: 164 countries. POPULATION: Full adult population in each country. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A consumer demand modelling framework was used to estimate the relationship between SSB intake and prices and derive own-price elasticities (measures of percentage changes in intake from a 1% price change) globally by age and sex. We simulated how a 20% tax would impact SSB intake globally. Tax policy outcomes were examined across countries by global income decile for representative age and sex subgroups. RESULTS: Own-price responsiveness was highest in lowest income countries, ranging from -0.70 (p<0.100) for women, age 50, to -1.91 (p<0.001) for men, age 80. In the highest income countries, responsiveness was as high as -0.49 (p<0.001) (men, age 20), but was mostly insignificant for older adults. Overall, elasticities were strongest (more negative) at the youngest and oldest age groups, and mostly insignificant for middle-aged adults, particularly in middle-income and high-income countries. Sex differences were mostly negligible. Potential intake reductions from a 20% tax in lowest income countries ranged from 14.5% (95% CI: 29.5%, -0.4%) in women, 35 ≤ age < 60, to 24.9% (44.4%, 5.3%) in men, age ≥60. Intake reductions decreased with country income overall, and were mostly insignificant for middle-aged adults. CONCLUSIONS: These findings estimate the global price-responsiveness of SSB intake by age and sex, informing ongoing policy discussions on potential effects of taxes.

9.
Milbank Q ; 97(3): 858-880, 2019 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31332837

RESUMO

Policy Points The World Health Organization has recommended sodium reduction as a "best buy" to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite this, Congress has temporarily blocked the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from implementing voluntary industry targets for sodium reduction in processed foods, the implementation of which could cost the industry around $16 billion over 10 years. We modeled the health and economic impact of meeting the two-year and ten-year FDA targets, from the perspective of people working in the food system itself, over 20 years, from 2017 to 2036. Benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, and the value of CVD-related health gains and cost savings are together greater than the government and industry costs of reformulation. CONTEXT: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) set draft voluntary targets to reduce sodium levels in processed foods. We aimed to determine cost effectiveness of meeting these draft sodium targets, from the perspective of US food system workers. METHODS: We employed a microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis using the US IMPACT Food Policy model with two scenarios: (1) short term, achieving two-year FDA reformulation targets only, and (2) long term, achieving 10-year FDA reformulation targets. We modeled four close-to-reality populations: food system "ever" workers; food system "current" workers in 2017; and subsets of processed food "ever" and "current" workers. Outcomes included cardiovascular disease cases prevented and postponed as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from 2017 to 2036. FINDINGS: Among food system ever workers, achieving long-term sodium reduction targets could produce 20-year health gains of approximately 180,000 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 150,000 to 209,000) and health cost savings of approximately $5.2 billion (95% UI: $3.5 billion to $8.3 billion), with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $62,000 (95% UI: $1,000 to $171,000) per QALY gained. For the subset of processed food industry workers, health gains would be approximately 32,000 QALYs (95% UI: 27,000 to 37,000); cost savings, $1.0 billion (95% UI: $0.7bn to $1.6bn); and ICER, $486,000 (95% UI: $148,000 to $1,094,000) per QALY gained. Because many health benefits may occur in individuals older than 65 or the uninsured, these health savings would be shared among individuals, industry, and government. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, with the value of health gains and health care cost savings outweighing the costs of reformulation, although not for the processed food industry.

11.
Circ Heart Fail ; 12(7): e005708, 2019 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31296099

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Ceramides exhibit multiple biological activities that may influence the pathophysiology of heart failure. These activities may be influenced by the saturated fatty acid carried by the ceramide (Cer). However, the associations of different circulating Cer species, and their sphingomyelin (SM) precursors, with heart failure have received limited attention. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied the associations of plasma Cer and SM species with incident heart failure in the Cardiovascular Health Study. We examined 8 species: Cer and SM with palmitic acid (Cer-16 and SM-16), species with arachidic acid (Cer-20 and SM-20), species with behenic acid (Cer-22 and SM-22), and species with lignoceric acid (Cer-24 and SM-24). During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, we identified 1179 cases of incident heart failure among 4249 study participants. In Cox regression analyses adjusted for risk factors, higher levels of Cer-16 and SM-16 were associated with higher risk of incident heart failure (hazard ratio for one SD increase:1.25 [95% CI, 1.16-1.36] and 1.28 [1.18-1.40], respectively). In contrast, higher levels of Cer-22 were associated with lower risk of heart failure in multivariable analyses further adjusted for Cer-16 (hazard ratio, 0.85 [0.78-0.92]); and higher levels of SM-20, SM-22 and SM-24 were associated with lower risk of heart failure in analyses further adjusted for SM-16 (hazard ratios, 0.83 [0.77-0.90], 0.81 [0.75-0.88], and 0.83 [0.77-0.90], respectively). No statistically significant interactions with age, sex, black race, body mass index, or baseline coronary heart disease were detected. Similar associations were observed for heart failure with preserved (n=529) or reduced (n=348) ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows associations of higher plasma levels of Cer-16 and SM-16 with increased risk of heart failure and higher levels of Cer-22, SM-20, SM-22, and SM-24 with decreased risk of heart failure. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00005133.

12.
Am J Clin Nutr ; 110(2): 410-429, 2019 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31175810

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Child stunting is a major public health problem, afflicting 155 million people worldwide. Lack of animal-source protein has been identified as a risk, but effects of animal protein supplementation are not well established. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate effects of animal protein supplementation in mothers, preterm infants, and term infants/children on birth and growth outcomes. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library, Web of Science, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature were searched for randomized controlled trials of animal protein supplementation in mothers or infants and children (≤age 5 y), evaluating measures of anthropometry (≤age 18 y). Main outcomes included birth weight, low birth weight, small for gestational age at birth; height, height-for-age, weight, weight-for-age, weight-for-length, stunting, and wasting ≤18 y of age. Data were extracted independently in duplicate, and findings pooled using inverse variance meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored using I2, stratified analysis, and meta-regression, and publication bias by funnel plots, Egger's test, and fill/trim methods. RESULTS: Of 6808 unique abstracts and 357 full-text articles, 62 trials were included. The 62 trials comprised over 30,000 participants across 5 continents, including formula-based supplementation in infants and food-based supplementation in pregnancy and childhood. Maternal supplementation increased birth weight by 0.06 kg, and both formula and food-based supplementation in term infants/young children increased weight by ≤0.14 kg. Neither formula nor food-based supplementation for term infants/young children increased height, whereas the height-for-age z-score was increased in the food-based (+0.06 z-score) but not formula-based (-0.11 z-score) trials reporting this outcome. In term infants, the weight-for-length z-score was increased in trials of formula (+0.24 z-score) and food supplementation (+0.06 z-score), whereas food supplementation was also associated with reduced odds of stunting (-13%). CONCLUSIONS: Supplementation of protein from animal-source foods generally increased weight and weight-for-length in children, but with more limited effects on other growth outcomes such as attained height.

13.
J Acad Nutr Diet ; 119(7): 1085-1098.e12, 2019 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31234969

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence links excessive consumption of processed meat with an increased risk of obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers. Yet, trends in consumption of different types of processed meat in the United States have not been quantified. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to characterize trends in consumption of different types of processed meat among US adults in relation to the consumption of unprocessed red meat, poultry, and fish/shellfish in the past 18 years, and their purchase locations. DESIGN: Dietary data collected from US adults aged 20 years and older completing at least one valid 24-hour diet recall from nine cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2016) were used to evaluate the trends in mean consumption of processed meat, unprocessed red meat, poultry, and fish/shellfish. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: This was a nationally representative sample of 43,995 US adults aged 20 years and older. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured survey-weighted, energy-adjusted mean consumption of processed meat, unprocessed red meat, poultry, and fish/shellfish. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Trends in mean intake were assessed by treating the 2-year survey cycle as a continuous variable in survey-weighted linear regression models. Changes in mean intake were computed as the difference in mean intake between the earliest (1999-2000) and latest (2015-2016) cycles. RESULTS: The mean consumption of processed meat among US adults remained unchanged in the past 18 years (mean change=4.22 g/wk; P trend=0.95). The top five processed meats consumed by US adults in 2015-2016 were luncheon meat (mean intake=73.3 g/wk), sausage (45.5 g/wk), hot dog (17.5 g/wk), ham (17.5 g/wk), and bacon (8.6 g/wk), accounting for 39.3%, 24.4%, 9.4%, 9.4%, and 4.6%, respectively, of the total processed meat consumption in the United States. During the same period, the mean consumption declined for unprocessed red meat (mean change= -56.7 g/wk; P trend<0.001) and increased for poultry (mean change=47.0 g/wk; P trend<0.001). The mean consumption of fish/shellfish did not change (mean change=1.55 g/wk; P trend=0.14). Stores and fast-food restaurants are primary purchase locations for processed meat. CONCLUSIONS: Despite growing public health concerns about processed meat consumption, there have been no changes in the amount of processed meat consumed by US adults over the last 18 years. Findings of this study can inform public health policy priorities for improving diet and reducing chronic disease burden in United States.

15.
Nat Rev Cardiol ; 16(10): 581-601, 2019 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31097791

RESUMO

The effect of dietary fats on cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes mellitus, has generated tremendous interest. Many earlier investigations focused on total fat and conventional fat classes (such as saturated and unsaturated fats) and their influence on a limited number of risk factors. However, dietary fats comprise heterogeneous molecules with diverse structures, and growing research in the past two decades supports correspondingly complex health effects of individual dietary fats. Moreover, health effects of dietary fats might be modified by additional factors, such as accompanying nutrients and food-processing methods, emphasizing the importance of the food sources. Accordingly, the rapidly increasing scientific findings on dietary fats and cardiometabolic diseases have generated debate among scientists, caused confusion for the general public and present challenges for translation into dietary advice and policies. This Review summarizes the evidence on the effects of different dietary fats and their food sources on cell function and on risk factors and clinical events of cardiometabolic diseases. The aim is not to provide an exhaustive review but rather to focus on the most important evidence from randomized controlled trials and prospective cohort studies and to highlight current areas of controversy and the most relevant future research directions for understanding how to improve the prevention and management of cardiometabolic diseases through optimization of dietary fat intake.

16.
J Nutr ; 149(6): 1065-1074, 2019 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31049577

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The preventable premature mortality achievable by improvement in dietary quality at a global level is unclear. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess dietary quality globally, and to quantify the potential global impact of improving dietary quality on population health. METHODS: We applied the Alternate Healthy Eating Index (AHEI, potential range 0-100) to a global dietary database to assess dietary quality among adults in 190 countries/territories. The relation of AHEI score to risks of major chronic disease was estimated from 2 large cohorts of men and women for whom many repeated dietary assessments during up to 30 years were available. We calculated the preventable premature deaths achievable by shifting from current national diets to a reference healthy diet. RESULTS: The global mean AHEI score in 2017 was 49.5 for males and 50.5 for females. Large differences between current and target intakes existed for whole grains, sodium, long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fats, polyunsaturated fats, and fruits. From 1990 to 2017, the global mean AHEI score increased modestly from 45.4 to 50.0. Diet quality varied substantially across the world. Coastal Mediterranean nations, the Caribbean region, and Eastern Asia (except China and Mongolia) had a higher AHEI score, whereas Central Asia, the South Pacific, and Eastern and Northern Europe had a lower score. An improvement in dietary quality from the current global diet to the reference healthy diet could prevent >11 million premature deaths, ∼24% of total deaths in 2017. These included 1.6 million cancer deaths, 3.9 million coronary artery disease deaths, 1.0 million stroke deaths, 1.7 million respiratory disease deaths, 0.4 million neurodegenerative disease deaths, 0.5 million kidney disease deaths, 0.6 million diabetes deaths, and 1.2 million digestive disease deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Global dietary quality is slowly improving, but remains far from optimal and varies across countries. Improvements in dietary quality have the potential to reduce mortality rates substantially.

18.
Am J Clin Nutr ; 109(4): 1216-1223, 2019 Apr 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30982858

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Saturated fatty acids (SFAs) of different chain lengths have unique metabolic and biological effects, and a small number of recent studies suggest that higher circulating concentrations of the very-long-chain SFAs (VLSFAs) arachidic acid (20:0), behenic acid (22:0), and lignoceric acid (24:0) are associated with a lower risk of diabetes. Confirmation of these findings in a large and diverse population is needed. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the associations of circulating VLSFAs 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 with incident type 2 diabetes in prospective studies. METHODS: Twelve studies that are part of the Fatty Acids and Outcomes Research Consortium participated in the analysis. Using Cox or logistic regression within studies and an inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis across studies, we examined the associations of VLSFAs 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 with incident diabetes among 51,431 participants. RESULTS: There were 14,276 cases of incident diabetes across participating studies. Higher circulating concentrations of 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 were each associated with a lower risk of incident diabetes. Pooling across cohorts, the RR (95% CI) for incident diabetes comparing the 90th percentile to the 10th percentile was 0.78 (0.70, 0.87) for 20:0, 0.84 (0.77, 0.91) for 22:0, and 0.75 (0.69, 0.83) for 24:0 after adjustment for demographic, lifestyle, adiposity, and other health factors. Results were fully attenuated in exploratory models that adjusted for circulating 16:0 and triglycerides. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this pooled analysis indicate that higher concentrations of circulating VLSFAs 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 are each associated with a lower risk of diabetes.

19.
Milbank Q ; 97(2): 420-448, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31016816

RESUMO

Policy Points High-profile international evidence reviews by the World Health Organization, the World Cancer Research Fund, the American Institute for Cancer Research, and the American Cancer Society concluded that processed meat consumption increases the risk of cancer. The red meat and processed meat industries are influential in the United States and in several other nations. The US federal government supports public-private partnerships for commodity meat promotion and advertising. Four potential policy options to affect consumption of processed meat are taxation, reduced processed meat quantities in school meal standards, public service announcements, and warning labels. Feasibility of these options would be enhanced by an explicit and science-based statement on processed meat in the 2020-2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. CONTEXT: The World Health Organization, the World Cancer Research Fund, and the American Cancer Society have each in recent years concluded that processed meats are probable carcinogens. The 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans did not separately evaluate health effects of processed meat, although it mentioned lower processed meat intakes among characteristics of healthy diets. METHODS: We summarized the international scientific literature on meat intake and cancer risk; described the scientific and political processes behind the periodic Dietary Guidelines for Americans; described the US red meat and processed meat industries and the economic structure of government-supported industry initiatives for advertising and promotion; and reviewed and analyzed specific factors and precedents that influence the feasibility of four potential policy approaches to reduce processed meat intake. FINDINGS: Based on a review of 800 epidemiological studies, the World Health Organization found sufficient evidence in humans that processed meat is carcinogenic, estimating that each 50-gram increase in daily intake increases the risk of colorectal cancer by 18%. Among the four policy responses we studied, legal feasibility is highest in the US for three policy options: reducing processed meat in school meals and other specific government-sponsored nutrition programs; a local, state, or federal tax on processed meat; and public service announcements on health harms of processed meats by either the government or private sector entities. Legal feasibility is moderate for a fourth policy option, mandatory warning labels, due to outstanding legal questions about the minimum evidence required to support this policy. Political feasibility is influenced by the economic and political power of the meat industries and also depends on decisions in the next round of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans about how to assess and describe the link between processed meat consumption and cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS: Public policy initiatives to reduce processed meat intake have a strong scientific and public health justification and are legally feasible, but political feasibility is influenced by the economic and political power of meat industries and also by uncertainty about the likely treatment of processed meat in the 2020-2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans.

20.
Circulation ; 139(23): 2613-2624, 2019 Jun 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30982338

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Excess added sugars, particularly from sugar-sweetened beverages, are a major risk factor for cardiometabolic diseases including cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In 2016, the US Food and Drug Administration mandated the labeling of added sugar content on all packaged foods and beverages. Yet, the potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness of this policy remain unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model (US IMPACT Food Policy model) was used to estimate cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus cases averted, quality-adjusted life-years, policy costs, health care, informal care, and lost productivity (health-related) savings and cost-effectiveness of 2 policy scenarios: (1) implementation of the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy (sugar label), and (2) further accounting for corresponding industry reformulation (sugar label+reformulation). The model used nationally representative demographic and dietary intake data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, disease data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wonder Database, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis accounted for model parameter uncertainties and population heterogeneity. RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2037, the sugar label would prevent 354 400 cardiovascular disease (95% uncertainty interval, 167 000-673 500) and 599 300 (302 400-957 400) diabetes mellitus cases, gain 727 000 (401 300-1 138 000) quality-adjusted life-years, and save $31 billion (15.7-54.5) in net healthcare costs or $61.9 billion (33.1-103.3) societal costs (incorporating reduced lost productivity and informal care costs). For the sugar label+reformulation scenario, corresponding gains were 708 800 (369 200-1 252 000) cardiovascular disease cases, 1.2 million (0.7-1.7) diabetes mellitus cases, 1.3 million (0.8-1.9) quality-adjusted life-years, and $57.6 billion (31.9-92.4) and $113.2 billion (67.3-175.2), respectively. Both scenarios were estimated with >80% probability to be cost saving by 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy could generate substantial health gains and cost savings for the US population.

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