Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 230
Filtrar
1.
Arch Iran Med ; 24(10): 741-746, 2021 10 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34816695

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR) of Iran has reported causes of death data by ICD-10 chapters for the first time in 2020. METHODS: We used this report to review the share of ICD chapters among all deaths in each province and compare them with the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. RESULTS: There are major changes in the distribution of causes of death between 2017 and 2018, especially in D50-D89 (Diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs and certain disorders involving the immune mechanism) from 0.76% to 38.94%, and I00-I99 (Diseases of the circulatory system) from 39.27% to 7.09%. Such dramatic changes are probably the results of changes in coding practices or definitions or issues in analysis. CONCLUSION: Causes of death reports should be timely, clear, and robust on methods. They should contain a minimum level of details, at least 3-digit ICD codes to be useful for public health and medical professionals.

2.
Lancet Public Health ; 6(12): e897-e906, 2021 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34838196

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Understanding the temporal trend of the disease burden of stroke and its attributable risk factors in China, especially at provincial levels, is important for effective prevention strategies and improvement. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is to investigate the disease burden of stroke and its risk factors at national and provincial levels in China from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Following the methodology in the GBD 2019, the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of stroke cases in the Chinese population were estimated by sex, age, year, stroke subtypes (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage), and across 33 provincial administrative units in China from 1990 to 2019. Attributable mortality and DALYs of underlying risk factors were calculated by a comparative risk assessment. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 3·94 million (95% uncertainty interval 3·43-4·58) new stroke cases in China. The incidence rate of stroke increased by 86·0% (73·2-99·0) from 1990, reaching 276·7 (241·3-322·0) per 100 000 population in 2019. The age-standardised incidence rate declined by 9·3% (3·3-15·5) from 1990 to 2019. Among 28·76 million (25·60-32·21) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019, 24·18 million (20·80-27·87) were ischaemic stroke, 4·36 million (3·69-5·05) were intracerebral haemorrhage, and 1·58 million (1·32-1·91) were subarachnoid haemorrhage. The prevalence rate increased by 106·0% (93·7-118·8) and age-standardised prevalence rate increased by 13·2% (7·7-19·1) from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, there were 2·19 million (1·89-2·51) deaths and 45·9 million (39·8-52·3) DALYs due to stroke. The mortality rate increased by 32·3% (8·6-59·0) from 1990 to 2019. Over the same period, the age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 39·8% (28·6-50·7) and the DALY rate decreased by 41·6% (30·7-50·9). High systolic blood pressure, ambient particulate matter pollution exposure, smoking, and diet high in sodium were four major risk factors for stroke burden in 2019. Moreover, we found marked differences of stroke burden and attributable risk factors across provinces in China from 1990 to 2019. INTERPRETATION: The disease burden of stroke is still severe in China, although the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates have decreased since 1990. The stroke burden in China might be reduced through blood pressure management, lifestyle interventions, and air pollution control. Moreover, because substantial heterogeneity of stroke burden existed in different provinces, improved health care is needed in provinces with heavy stroke burden. FUNDING: National Key Research and Development Program of China and Taikang Yicai Public Health and Epidemic Control Fund.

3.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(11)2021 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34782357

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Tracking progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3·6 of reducing traffic deaths and serious injuries poses a measurement challenge in most low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) due to large discrepancies between reported official statistics and estimates from global health measurement studies. We assess the extent to which national population censuses and health surveys can fill the information gaps. METHODS: We reviewed questionnaires for nationally representative surveys and censuses conducted since 2000 in LMICs. We identified sources that provide estimates of household ownership of vehicles, incidence of traffic deaths and non-fatal injuries, and prevalence of disability. RESULTS: We identified 802 data sources from 132 LMICs. Sub-Saharan African countries accounted for 43% of all measurements. The number of measurements since 2000 was high, with 97% of the current global LMIC population having at least one measurement for vehicle ownership, 77% for deaths, 90% for non-fatal injuries and 50% for disability due to traffic injuries. Recent data (since 2010) on traffic injuries were available from far fewer countries (deaths: 21 countries; non-fatal injuries: 62 and disability: 12). However, there were many more countries with recent data on less-specific questions about unintentional or all injuries (deaths: 41 countries, non-fatal: 87, disability: 32). CONCLUSION: Traffic injuries are substantially underreported in official statistics of most LMICs. National surveys and censuses provide a viable alternative information source, but despite a large increase in their use to monitor SDGs, traffic injury measurements have not increased. We show that relatively small modifications and additions to questions in forthcoming surveys can provide countries with a way to benchmark their existing surveillance systems and result in a substantial increase in data for tracking road traffic injuries globally.

4.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(11)2021 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34844997

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The current study determined the level and trends associated with the incidence, death and disability rates for bladder cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019, by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI; a composite measure of sociodemographic factors). METHODS: Various data sources from different countries, including vital registration and cancer registries were used to generate estimates. Mortality data and incidence data transformed to mortality estimates using the mortality to incidence ratio (MIR) were used in a cause of death ensemble model to estimate mortality. Mortality estimates were divided by the MIR to produce incidence estimates. Prevalence was calculated using incidence and MIR-based survival estimates. Age-specific mortality and standardised life expectancy were used to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). Prevalence was multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs), while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of the YLLs and YLDs. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. RESULTS: Globally, there were 524 000 bladder cancer incident cases (95% uncertainty interval 476 000 to 569 000) and 229 000 bladder cancer deaths (211 000 to 243 000) in 2019. Age-standardised death rate decreased by 15.7% (8.6 to 21.0), during the period 1990-2019. Bladder cancer accounted for 4.39 million (4.09 to 4.70) DALYs in 2019, and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased significantly by 18.6% (11.2 to 24.3) during the period 1990-2019. In 2019, Monaco had the highest age-standardised incidence rate (31.9 cases (23.3 to 56.9) per 100 000), while Lebanon had the highest age-standardised death rate (10.4 (8.1 to 13.7)). Cabo Verde had the highest increase in age-standardised incidence (284.2% (214.1 to 362.8)) and death rates (190.3% (139.3 to 251.1)) between 1990 and 2019. In 2019, the global age-standardised incidence and death rates were higher among males than females, across all age groups and peaked in the 95+ age group. Globally, 36.8% (28.5 to 44.0) of bladder cancer DALYs were attributable to smoking, more so in males than females (43.7% (34.0 to 51.8) vs 15.2% (10.9 to 19.4)). In addition, 9.1% (1.9 to 19.6) of the DALYs were attributable to elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (males 9.3% (1.6 to 20.9); females 8.4% (1.6 to 19.1)). CONCLUSIONS: There was considerable variation in the burden of bladder cancer between countries during the period 1990-2019. Although there was a clear global decrease in the age-standardised death, and DALY rates, some countries experienced an increase in these rates. National policy makers should learn from these differences, and allocate resources for preventative measures, based on their country-specific estimates. In addition, smoking and elevated FPG play an important role in the burden of bladder cancer and need to be addressed with prevention programmes.

5.
BMC Neurol ; 21(1): 400, 2021 Oct 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34654397

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a burdensome, chronic and autoimmune disease of the central nervous system. We aimed to report the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of MS in Iran at a national level for different age and sex groups over a period of 28 years (1990-2017). METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) from 1990 to 2017, published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The incidence of DALYs and prevalence of MS were estimated to report the burden of MS based on sex and age in Iran from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: At the national level, the Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Prevalence Rate (ASPR), Age-Standardized DALYs Rate (ASDR) and the Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) in Iran in 2017 were 2.4 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 2.1 to 2.7), 69.5 (62.1 to 77.8), 29.1 (23.6 to 34.7), and 0.4 (0.3 to 0.4) per 100,000 population, respectively. During the period of 1990 to 2017, all measures increased, and were higher among females. The incidence rate began upward trend at the age of 20 and attained its highest level at the age of 25. CONCLUSION: In Iran, all of the age-standardized MS rates have been increasing during the 28 years from 1990 to 2017. Our findings can help policy makers and health planners to design and communicate their plans and to have a better resource allocation, depending on the incidence and prevalence of the growing numbers of MS patients in Iran.


Assuntos
Esclerose Múltipla , Adulto , Feminino , Carga Global da Doença , Saúde Global , Humanos , Incidência , Irã (Geográfico)/epidemiologia , Esclerose Múltipla/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida
6.
Cien Saude Colet ; 26(9): 4069-4086, 2021 Sep.
Artigo em Português, Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34586261

RESUMO

Mortality indicators for Brazilians aged between 10 and 24 years old were analyzed. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 Study, and absolute numbers, proportion of deaths and specific mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, according to age group (10 to 14, 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 years), sex and causes of death for Brazil, regions and Brazilian states. There was a reduction of 11.8% in the mortality rates of individuals aged between 10 and 24 years in the investigated period. In 2019, there were 13,459 deaths among women, corresponding to a reduction of 30.8% in the period. Among men there were 39,362 deaths, a reduction of only 6.2%. There was an increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast and a reduction in the Southeast and South states. In 2019, the leading cause of death among women was traffic injuries, followed by interpersonal violence, maternal deaths and suicide. For men, interpersonal violence was the leading cause of death, especially in the Northeast, followed by traffic injuries, suicide and drowning. Police executions moved from 77th to 6th place. This study revealed inequalities in the mortality of adolescents and young adults according to sex, causes of death, regions and Brazilian states.


Assuntos
Morte Materna , Suicídio , Adolescente , Adulto , Brasil/epidemiologia , Causas de Morte , Criança , Feminino , Carga Global da Doença , Humanos , Masculino , Mortalidade , Violência , Adulto Jovem
7.
J Int AIDS Soc ; 24 Suppl 5: e25791, 2021 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34546661

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Misclassification of HIV deaths can substantially diminish the usefulness of cause of death data for decision-making. In this study, we describe the methods developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study to account for the misclassified cause of death data from vital registration systems for estimating HIV mortality in 132 countries and territories. METHODS: The cause of death data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and official country-specific mortality databases. We implemented two steps to adjust the raw cause of death data: (1) redistributing garbage codes to underlying causes of death, including HIV/AIDS by applying methods, such as analysis of multiple cause data and proportional redistribution, and (2) reassigning HIV deaths misclassified as other causes to HIV/AIDS by examining the age patterns of underlying causes in location and years with and without HIV epidemics. RESULTS: In 132 countries, during the period from 1990 to 2018, 1,848,761 deaths were reported as caused by HIV/AIDS. After garbage code redistribution in these 132 countries, this number increased to 4,165,015 deaths. An additional 1,944,291 deaths were added through correction of HIV deaths misclassified as other causes in 44 countries. The proportion of HIV deaths derived from garbage code redistribution decreased over time, from 0.4 in 1990 to 0.1 in 2018. The proportion of deaths derived from HIV misclassification correction peaked at 0.4 in 2006 and declined afterwards to 0.08 in 2018. The greatest contributors to garbage code redistribution were "immunodeficiency antibody" (ICD 9: 279-279.1; ICD 10: D80-D80.9) and "immunodeficiency other" (ICD 9: 279, 279.5-279.9; ICD 10: D83-D84.9, D89, D89.8-D89.9), which together contributed 77% of all redistributed deaths at their peak in 1995. Respiratory tuberculosis (ICD 9: 010-012.9; ICD 10: A10-A14, A15-A16.9) contributed the greatest proportion of all HIV misclassified deaths (25-62% per year) over the most years. CONCLUSIONS: Correcting for miscoding and misclassification of cause of death data can enhance the utility of the data for analyzing trends in HIV mortality and tracking progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal targets.


Assuntos
Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida , Infecções por HIV , Tuberculose Pulmonar , Causas de Morte , Saúde Global , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , Mortalidade
8.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord ; 22(1): 811, 2021 Sep 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34548044

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: This study analyzed neck pain estimates in Brazil and its states between 2000 and 2019, in view of the country's lacking epidemiological data. METHODS: An analysis was performed of the GBD 2019 estimates by location, sex, and age, per 100,000 population, with uncertainty intervals (95% UI). Brazilian estimates were compared to global, Mexican, English, and American rates. RESULTS: Global, Brazilian, and Mexican prevalence numbers were statistically homogeneous and stable in the period. Throughout the period analyzed in the study, Brazilian neck pain prevalence (2241.9; 95%UI 1770.5-2870.6) did not show statistical differences when compared to global (2696.5; 95%UI 2177.0-3375.2) or Mexican (1595.9; 95%UI 1258.9-2058.8) estimates. Estimates observed in the USA (5123.29; 95%UI 4268.35-6170.35) and England (4612.5; 95%UI 3668.8-5830.3) were significantly higher. In 2019, when compared to the USA and England, age-standardized prevalences were lower globally, in Brazil, and in Mexico. Prevalences in Brazilian states were similar, being that Roraima (1915.9; 95%UI 1506.5-2443.1) and the Federal District (1932.05; 95%UI 1515.1-2462.7) presented the lowest and highest values respectively. The exception was the state of São Paulo (3326.5; 95%UI 2609.6-4275.5). There was no statistical difference by sex, but the prevalence tended to increase with aging. In 2019, the Brazilian prevalence was 2478.6 (95% UI 1791.0-3503.8), 5017.2 (95%UI 3257.26-7483.8), and 4293.4 (95% UI 2898,8-6343.9), for those aged 15 to 49, 50 to 69, and 70+ years. There was no statistical difference among the YLDs in all locations and times. CONCLUSIONS: Brazil is going through a fast-paced process of populational aging; a higher prevalence of neck pain in middle-aged individuals and the elderly highlights the need for lifelong prevention initiatives. The higher rates observed among higher-income populations and the homogeneity of the Brazilian estimates suggest a lack of robust epidemiological data in lower-income countries.


Assuntos
Carga Global da Doença , Cervicalgia , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Brasil/epidemiologia , Saúde Global , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Cervicalgia/diagnóstico , Cervicalgia/epidemiologia , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Distribuição por Sexo
9.
Ciênc. Saúde Colet ; 26(9): 4069-4086, set. 2021. tab, graf
Artigo em Português | LILACS-Express | LILACS | ID: biblio-1339610

RESUMO

Resumo Trata-se de análise de indicadores de mortalidade de brasileiros com idades entre 10 e 24 anos. Foram analisados os dados do Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, utilizando números absolutos, proporção de óbitos e taxas de mortalidade específicas entre 1990 e 2019, segundo faixa etária (10 a 14, 15 a 19 e 20 a 24 anos), sexo e causas de morte para Brasil, regiões e estados brasileiros. Houve redução de 11,8% nas taxas de mortalidade de indivíduos com idades entre 10 e 24 anos no período investigado. Em 2019, ocorreram 13.459 mortes entre mulheres, correspondendo à redução de 30,8% no período. Entre homens ocorreram 39.362 óbitos, redução de apenas 6,2%. Houve aumento das taxas de mortalidade no Norte e Nordeste e redução em estados do Sudeste e Sul. Em 2019, entre mulheres a primeira causa de morte foram lesões por transporte, seguidas por violência interpessoal, mortes maternas e suicídio. Para os homens, a violência interpessoal foi a primeira causa de morte, em especial no Nordeste, seguida das lesões por transporte, do suicídio e dos afogamentos. Execuções policiais passaram do 77º para o 6º lugar. Este estudo revelou desigualdades na mortalidade de adolescentes e adultos jovens segundo sexo, causas de óbito, regiões e estados brasileiros.


Abstract Mortality indicators for Brazilians aged between 10 and 24 years old were analyzed. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 Study, and absolute numbers, proportion of deaths and specific mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, according to age group (10 to 14, 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 years), sex and causes of death for Brazil, regions and Brazilian states. There was a reduction of 11.8% in the mortality rates of individuals aged between 10 and 24 years in the investigated period. In 2019, there were 13,459 deaths among women, corresponding to a reduction of 30.8% in the period. Among men there were 39,362 deaths, a reduction of only 6.2%. There was an increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast and a reduction in the Southeast and South states. In 2019, the leading cause of death among women was traffic injuries, followed by interpersonal violence, maternal deaths and suicide. For men, interpersonal violence was the leading cause of death, especially in the Northeast, followed by traffic injuries, suicide and drowning. Police executions moved from 77th to 6th place. This study revealed inequalities in the mortality of adolescents and young adults according to sex, causes of death, regions and Brazilian states.

10.
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak ; 21(1): 175, 2021 06 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34078366

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments. METHODS: We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings. RESULTS: The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD; these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge.


Assuntos
Confiabilidade dos Dados , Saúde Global , Algoritmos , Brasil , Causas de Morte , Feminino , França , Humanos , Japão , Masculino
11.
Eur J Prev Cardiol ; 28(4): 385-396, 2021 05 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33966080

RESUMO

AIMS: An exhaustive and updated estimation of cardiovascular disease burden and vascular risk factors is still lacking in European countries. This study aims to fill this gap assessing the global Italian cardiovascular disease burden and its changes from 1990 to 2017 and comparing the Italian situation with European countries. METHODS: All accessible data sources from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study were used to estimate the cardiovascular disease prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years and cardiovascular disease attributable risk factors burden in Italy from 1990 to 2017. Furthermore, we compared the cardiovascular disease burden within the 28 European Union countries. RESULTS: Since 1990, we observed a significant decrease of cardiovascular disease burden, particularly in the age-standardised prevalence (-12.7%), mortality rate (-53.8%), and disability-adjusted life years rate (-55.5%). Similar improvements were observed in the majority of European countries. However, we found an increase in all-ages prevalence of cardiovascular diseases from 5.75 m to 7.49 m Italian residents. Cardiovascular diseases still remain the first cause of death (34.8% of total mortality). More than 80% of the cardiovascular disease burden could be attributed to known modifiable risk factors such as high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and impaired kidney function. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows a decline in cardiovascular mortality and disability-adjusted life years, which reflects the success in reducing disability, premature death and early incidence of cardiovascular diseases. However, the burden of cardiovascular diseases is still high. An approach that includes the cooperation and coordination of all stakeholders of the Italian National Health System is required to further reduce this burden.

13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33629817

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Gastric cancer (GC), the leading cause of cancer mortality, is the third most common cancer in Iran. To our knowledge, there have been few accurate estimates on the burden of GC in Iran. Therefore, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we aimed to study and illustrate the burden of GC and to compare rates by sex and age groups at the national level in Iran from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We extracted data related to the 1990-2017 period from the GBD study. To report the burden of GC, we used disability adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, and prevalence rates in different sex and age groups in Iran during the 1990-2017 period. Decomposition analysis was also performed to evaluate the roots change in incident cases. RESULTS: At a national level, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) in 2017 were 22.9 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 22.1-23.9), 14.6 (14.1-15.2), 14.9 (14.4-15.4), and 296.8 (286.3-308.7) per 100,000 population, respectively. Over the 1990-2017 period, the average annual percent changes in all of the studied age-standardized rates were negative. Moreover, the male to female sex ratios of all estimates were greater than one. The incidence rate, prevalence rate, and mortality rate slowly began to increase at the age of 50 and reached its highest level among people aged 80 years and over. CONCLUSION: The GC age-standardized rates revealed a downward trend from 1990 to 2017. The current study provides comprehensive knowledge about the GC burden in Iran. Therefore, it can help the appropriate allocation of resources for GC to expand preventive programs by reducing exposure to risk factors and Helicobacter pylori infection and by recommending increased consumption of fruits and vegetables. Also, expanding GC screening programs with laboratory tests or endoscopy can be an important step towards the reduction of the GC burden.

14.
Epidemiol Serv Saude ; 30(1): e2020680, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês, Português | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33566896

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. METHODS: The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. RESULTS: The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.


Assuntos
COVID-19/mortalidade , Previsões , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , SARS-CoV-2 , Brasil/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/transmissão , Humanos , Máscaras/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Teóricos , Mortalidade/tendências , Distanciamento Físico , Fatores de Tempo
15.
Int J Cardiol Heart Vasc ; 33: 100726, 2021 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33604451

RESUMO

Background: The burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) is high. There is limited information on the burden of IHD in identified high risk areas like Central Asia (CA) which is comprised of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Mongolia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. This study addresses the burden of IHD in CA at the regional and country levels. Methods: Using data from the latest iteration of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), this study provides age-adjusted mortality, prevalence, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of IHD by sex in the CA region, and national levels for countries in this region from 1990 to 2017. Results: The CA region has a higher IHD burden than the rest of the world over the studied period. Amongst the countries within this region, age-standardized mortality and DALY rates in Uzbekistan are the highest not only in CA but worldwide, while Armenia consistently has the lowest IHD burden in CA. Unhealthy diet, high systolic blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol are the risk factors with the highest attributable IHD DALYs. Conclusion: Increasing burden of IHD over time in CA can be partially explained by the economic crisis in the 1990s. There is considerable variation in IHD DALY rates among countries in the CA region. The reasons for such differences are likely multifactorial such as differences in risk factors distribution, health care effectiveness, political, social and economic factors.

16.
Int Health ; 13(4): 318-326, 2021 07 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32945840

RESUMO

In Ethiopia, evidence on the national burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is limited. To address this gap, this systematic analysis estimated the burden of CVDs in Ethiopia using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study data. The age-standardized CVD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates in Ethiopia were 5534 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5310.09 - 5774.0), 3549.6 (95% UI 3229.0 - 3911.9) and 182.63 (95% UI 165.49 - 203.9) per 100 000 population, respectively. Compared with 1990, the age-standardized CVD prevalence rate in 2017 showed no change. But significant reductions were observed in CVD mortality (54.7%), CVD DALYs (57.7%) and all-cause mortality (53.4%). The top three prevalent CVDs were ischaemic heart disease, rheumatic heart disease and stroke in descending order. The reduction in the mortality rate due to CVDs is slower than for communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional disease mortalities. As a result, CVDs are the leading cause of mortality in Ethiopia. These findings urge Ethiopia to consider CVDs as a priority public health problem.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Pessoas com Deficiência , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Etiópia/epidemiologia , Carga Global da Doença , Saúde Global , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Prevalência , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida
17.
JAMA Neurol ; 78(2): 165-176, 2021 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33136137

RESUMO

Importance: Accurate and up-to-date estimates on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (burden) of neurological disorders are the backbone of evidence-based health care planning and resource allocation for these disorders. It appears that no such estimates have been reported at the state level for the US. Objective: To present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of major neurological disorders were derived from the GBD 2017 study of the 48 contiguous US states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Fourteen major neurological disorders were analyzed: stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, Parkinson disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. Exposures: Any of the 14 listed neurological diseases. Main Outcome and Measure: Absolute numbers in detail by age and sex and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated. Results: The 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US in terms of absolute number of DALYs were stroke (3.58 [95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.25-3.92] million DALYs), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (2.55 [95% UI, 2.43-2.68] million DALYs), and migraine (2.40 [95% UI, 1.53-3.44] million DALYs). The burden of almost all neurological disorders (in terms of absolute number of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases, as well as DALYs) increased from 1990 to 2017, largely because of the aging of the population. Exceptions for this trend included traumatic brain injury incidence (-29.1% [95% UI, -32.4% to -25.8%]); spinal cord injury prevalence (-38.5% [95% UI, -43.1% to -34.0%]); meningitis prevalence (-44.8% [95% UI, -47.3% to -42.3%]), deaths (-64.4% [95% UI, -67.7% to -50.3%]), and DALYs (-66.9% [95% UI, -70.1% to -55.9%]); and encephalitis DALYs (-25.8% [95% UI, -30.7% to -5.8%]). The different metrics of age-standardized rates varied between the US states from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to 7.5-fold for tetanus; southeastern states and Arkansas had a relatively higher burden for stroke, while northern states had a relatively higher burden of multiple sclerosis and eastern states had higher rates of Parkinson disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, and meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. Conclusions and Relevance: There is a large and increasing burden of noncommunicable neurological disorders in the US, with up to a 5-fold variation in the burden of and trends in particular neurological disorders across the US states. The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders.

18.
Drug Alcohol Rev ; 40(3): 431-442, 2021 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33210443

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: The gender difference in alcohol use seems to have narrowed in the Nordic countries, but it is not clear to what extent this may have affected differences in levels of harm. We compared gender differences in all-cause and cause-specific alcohol-attributed disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), in four Nordic countries in 2000-2017, to find out if gender gaps in DALYs had narrowed. DESIGN AND METHODS: Alcohol-attributed disease burden by DALYs per 100 000 population with 95% uncertainty intervals were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease database. RESULTS: In 2017, all-cause DALYs in males varied between 2531 in Finland and 976 in Norway, and in females between 620 in Denmark and 270 in Norway. Finland had the largest gender differences and Norway the smallest, closely followed by Sweden. During 2000-2017, absolute gender differences in all-cause DALYs declined by 31% in Denmark, 26% in Finland, 19% in Sweden and 18% in Norway. In Finland, this was driven by a larger relative decline in males than females; in Norway, it was due to increased burden in females. In Denmark, the burden in females declined slightly more than in males, in relative terms, while in Sweden the relative decline was similar in males and females. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The gender gaps in harm narrowed to a different extent in the Nordic countries, with the differences driven by different conditions. Findings are informative about how inequality, policy and sociocultural differences affect levels of harm by gender.

19.
Epidemiol. serv. saúde ; 30(1): e2020680, 2021. graf
Artigo em Inglês, Português | LILACS | ID: biblio-1154132

RESUMO

Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações. Métodos: As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1º de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17 mil óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente. Conclusão: Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.


Objetivo: Describir las proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation para COVID-19 en Brasil y sus estados, presentar su precisión y discutir sus implicaciones. Métodos Las previsiones del IHME de mayo a agosto de 2020 para Brasil y algunos estados, se compararon con las muertes acumuladas observadas. Resultados La proyección prevé 182.809 muertes por la pandemia hasta el 1º de diciembre de 2020 en Brasil. Un aumento en el uso de mascarillas podría evitar ~17.000 muertes. El error medio en el número acumulado de muertes en 2, 4 y 6 semanas de las proyecciones fue de 13%, 18% y 22%. Conclusión: Las proyecciones de corto y medio plazo proporcionan datos importantes y con suficiente precisión para informar a los administradores de salud, autoridades electas y a la sociedad. Después de un camino difícil hasta agosto, la pandemia, según las proyecciones, tendrá una disminución sostenida, pero lenta, y seguirá causando alrededor de 400 muertes/día a principios de diciembre.


Objective: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods: The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively. Conclusion: Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.


Assuntos
Humanos , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Previsões/métodos , Fatores de Tempo , Brasil/epidemiologia , Mortalidade/tendências , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/estatística & dados numéricos , Síndrome Respiratória Aguda Grave/epidemiologia , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Confiabilidade dos Dados
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA
...