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PLoS One ; 15(12): e0243779, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33306704


As climate change adaptation is becoming a recognized policy issue, the need is growing for quantitative economic evaluation of adaptation-related public investment, particularly in the context of climate finance. Funds are meant to be allocated not to any types of beneficial investments with or without climate change but to projects regarded as effective for climate change adaptation based on some metrics. But attempts at such project-specific evaluation of adaptation effects are few, in part because such assessments require an integration of various types of simulation analyses. Against this background, we conduct a case study of a Kenyan irrigation development project using a combination of downscaled climate data, runoff simulations, yield forecasting, and local socioeconomic projections to examine the effects of interventions specifically attributable to climate change adaptation, i.e., how much irrigation development can reduce the negative effects of climate change in the future. The results show that despite the uncertainties in precipitation trends, increased temperatures due to climate change have a general tendency to reduce rice yields, and that irrigation development will mitigate income impacts from the yield loss-for example, for the median scenario, the household income loss of 6% in 2050 due to climate change without irrigation development is flipped to become positive with the project. This means that the irrigation development project will likely be effective as a means for climate change adaptation.

Sci Rep ; 10(1): 15092, 2020 09 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32934309


This study quantitatively assessed the population-wide lead poisoning conditions in Kabwe, Zambia, a town with severe lead pollution. While existing data have reported concerning blood lead levels (BLLs) of residents in pollution hotspots, the data representing the entire population are lacking. Further, selection bias is a concern. Given the lack of compulsory testing schemes, BLLs have been observed from voluntary participants in blood sampling surveys, but such data can represent higher or lower BLLs than the population average because of factors simultaneously affecting participation and BLLs. To illustrate the lead poisoning conditions of the population, we expanded the focus of our surveys and then econometrically estimated the BLLs of individuals representing the population, including those not participating in blood sampling, using background geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information. The estimated population mean BLL was 11.9 µg/dL (11.6-12.1, 95% CI), lower than existing data because of our wide focus and correction of selection bias. However, the scale of lead poisoning remained immense and 74.9% of residents had BLLs greater than 5 µg/dL, the standard reference level for lead poisoning. Our estimates provide a deeper understanding of the problem and a foundation for policy intervention designs.

Chemosphere ; 243: 125412, 2020 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31995873


Childhood lead (Pb) poisoning has devastating effects on neurodevelopment and causes overt clinical signs including convulsions and coma. Health effects including hypertension and various reproductive problems have been reported in adults. Historical Pb mining in Zambia's Kabwe town left a legacy of environmental pollution and childhood Pb poisoning. The current study aimed at establishing the extent of Pb poisoning and exposure differences among family members in Kabwe as well as determining populations at risk and identify children eligible for chelation therapy. Blood samples were collected in July and August 2017 from 1190 household members and Pb was measured using a portable LeadCare-II analyser. Participants included 291 younger children (3-months to 3-years-old), 271 older children (4-9-years-old), 412 mothers and 216 fathers from 13 townships with diverse levels of Pb contamination. The Blood Lead Levels (BLL) ranged from 1.65 to 162  µg/dL, with residents from Kasanda (mean 45.7  µg/dL) recording the highest BLL while Hamududu residents recorded the lowest (mean 3.3  µg/dL). Of the total number of children sampled (n = 562), 23% exceeded the 45  µg/dL, the threshold required for chelation therapy. A few children (5) exceeded the 100  µg/dL whereas none of the parents exceeded the 100  µg/dL value. Children had higher BLL than parents, with peak BLL-recorded at the age of 2-years-old. Lead exposure differences in Kabwe were attributed to distance and direction from the mine, with younger children at highest risk. Exposure levels in parents were equally alarming. For prompt diagnosis and treatment, a portable point-of-care devise such as a LeadCare-II would be preferable in Kabwe.

Exposição Ambiental/análise , Intoxicação por Chumbo/epidemiologia , Chumbo/sangue , Chumbo/toxicidade , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Poluição Ambiental/análise , Pai , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Mineração , Mães , Registros , Reprodução , Manejo de Espécimes , Zâmbia/epidemiologia
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 112(15): 4606-11, 2015 Apr 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25825719


Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

Mudança Climática , Clima , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/economia , Ecossistema , Meio Ambiente , Algoritmos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional , Modelos Econômicos , Política Pública
Public Underst Sci ; 21(1): 84-100, 2012 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22530489


Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is a technology that receives growing recognition because of its extremely great in mitigating climate change. However, uncertainties concerning the viability of this approach exist. With this background, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report in 2005 assessing of CCS. This article discusses the compilation process of the report, based on information collected through interviews with key participants and document research, highlighting how CCS's key uncertainties were estimated in the face of two disparate needs: scientific rigor and policy relevance.

Dióxido de Carbono/efeitos adversos , Sequestro de Carbono , Mudança Climática , Avaliação da Tecnologia Biomédica/organização & administração , Incerteza , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Saúde Global , Humanos , Entrevistas como Assunto , Revisão por Pares , Opinião Pública