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1.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35538361

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The education of civilians and first responders in prehospital tourniquet (PT) utilization has spread rapidly. We aimed to describe trends in emergency medical services (EMS) and non-EMS PT utilization, and their ability to identify proper clinical indications and to appropriately apply tourniquets in the field. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate all adult patients with PTs who presented at two Level I trauma centers between January 2015 and December 2019. Data were collected via an electronic patient query tool and cross-referenced with institutional Trauma Registries. Medically trained abstractors determined if PTs were clinically indicated (limb amputation, vascular hard signs, injury requiring hemostasis procedure, or significant documented blood loss). PTs were further designated as appropriately or inappropriately applied (based on tourniquet location, venous tourniquet, greater than 2-h ischemic time). Descriptive statistics and univariate analyses were performed. RESULTS: 146 patients met inclusion criteria. The incidence of yearly PT placements increased between 2015 and 2019, with an increase in placement by non-EMS personnel (police, firefighter, bystander, and patient). Improvised PTs were frequently utilized by bystanders and patients, whereas first responders had high rates of commercial tourniquet use. A high proportion of tourniquets were placed without indication (72/146, 49%); however, the proportion of PTs placed without a proper indication across applier groups was not statistically different (p = 0.99). Rates of inappropriately applied PTs ranged from 21 to 46% across all groups applying PTs. CONCLUSIONS: PT placement was increasingly performed by non-EMS personnel. Present data indicate that non-EMS persons applied PTs at a similar performance level of those applied by EMS. Study LevelLevel III.

2.
Am Surg ; 88(6): 1054-1058, 2022 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35465697

RESUMO

As hospital systems plan for health care utilization surges and stress, understanding the necessary resources of a trauma system is essential for planning capacity. We aimed to describe trends in high-intensity resource utilization (operating room [OR] usage and intensive care unit [ICU] admissions) for trauma care during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Trauma registry data (2019 pre-COVID-19 and 2020 COVID-19) were collected retrospectively from 4 level I trauma centers. Direct emergency department (ED) disposition to the OR or ICU was used as a proxy for high-intensity resource utilization. No change in the incidence of direct ED to ICU or ED to OR utilization was observed (2019: 24%, 2020 23%; P = .62 and 2019: 11%, 2020 10%; P = .71, respectively). These results suggest the need for continued access to ICU space and OR theaters for traumatic injury during national health emergencies, even when levels of trauma appear to be decreasing.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Estudos Retrospectivos , Centros de Traumatologia
3.
J Trauma Acute Care Surg ; 93(1): 21-29, 2022 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35313325

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Balanced blood component administration during massive transfusion is standard of care. Most literature focuses on the impact of red blood cell (RBC)/fresh frozen plasma (FFP) ratio, while the value of balanced RBC:platelet (PLT) administration is less established. The aim of this study was to evaluate and quantify the independent impact of RBC:PLT on 24-hour mortality in trauma patients receiving massive transfusion. METHODS: Using the 2013 to 2018 American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program database, adult patients who received massive transfusion (≥10 U of RBC/24 hours) and ≥1 U of RBC, FFP, and PLT within 4 hours of arrival were retrospectively included. To mitigate survival bias, only patients with consistent RBC:PLT and RBC:FFP ratios between 4 and 24 hours were analyzed. Balanced FFP or PLT transfusions were defined as having RBC:PLT and RBC:FFP of ≤2, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the independent relationship between RBC:FFP, RBC:PLT, balanced transfusion, and 24-hour mortality. RESULTS: A total of 9,215 massive transfusion patients were included. The number of patients who received transfusion with RBC:PLT >2 (1,942 [21.1%]) was significantly higher than those with RBC:FFP >2 (1,160 [12.6%]) (p < 0.001). Compared with an RBC:PLT ratio of 1:1, a gradual and consistent risk increase was observed for 24-hour mortality as the RBC:PLT ratio increased (p < 0.001). Patients with both FFP and PLT balanced transfusion had the lowest adjusted risk for 24-hour mortality. Mortality increased as resuscitation became more unbalanced, with higher odds of death for unbalanced PLT (odds ratio, 2.48 [2.18-2.83]) than unbalanced FFP (odds ratio, 1.66 [1.37-1.98]), while patients who received both FFP and PLT unbalanced transfusion had the highest risk of 24-hour mortality (odds ratio, 3.41 [2.74-4.24]). CONCLUSION: Trauma patients receiving massive transfusion significantly more often have unbalanced PLT rather than unbalanced FFP transfusion. The impact of unbalanced PLT transfusion on 24-hour mortality is independent and potentially more pronounced than unbalanced FFP transfusion, warranting serious system-level efforts for improvement. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic/Care Management; Level IV.


Assuntos
Plaquetas , Transfusão de Eritrócitos , Adulto , Transfusão de Componentes Sanguíneos , Eritrócitos , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos
4.
Injury ; 53(6): 1979-1986, 2022 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35232568

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Results from single-region studies suggest that stay at home orders (SAHOs) had unforeseen consequences on the volume and patterns of traumatic injury during the initial months of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to describe, using a multi-regional approach, the effects of COVID-19 SAHOs on trauma volume and patterns of traumatic injury in the US. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed at four verified Level I trauma centers spanning three geographical regions across the United States (US). The study period spanned from April 1, 2020 - July 31, 2020 including a month-matched 2019 cohort. Patients were categorized into pre-COVID-19 (PCOV19) and first COVID-19 surge (FCOV19S) cohorts. Patient demographic, injury, and outcome data were collected via Trauma Registry queries. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total 5,616 patients presented to participating study centers during the PCOV19 (2,916) and FCOV19S (2,700) study periods.  Blunt injury volume decreased (p = 0.006) due to a significant reduction in the number of motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) (p = 0.003). Penetrating trauma experienced a significant increase, 8% (246/2916) in 2019 to 11% (285/2,700) in 2020 (p = 0.007), which was associated with study site (p = 0.002), not SAHOs. Finally, study site was significantly associated with changes in nearly all injury mechanisms, whereas SAHOs accounted for observed decreases in calculated weekly averages of blunt injuries (p < 0.02) and MVCs (p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Results of this study suggest that COVID-19 and initial SAHOs had variable consequences on patterns of traumatic injury, and that region-specific shifts in traumatic injury ensued during initial SAHOs. These results suggest that other factors, potentially socioeconomic or cultural, confound trauma volumes and types arising from SAHOs. Future analyses must consider how regional changes may be obscured with pooled cohorts, and focus on characterizing community-level changes to aid municipal preparation for future similar events.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Ferimentos Penetrantes , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Centros de Traumatologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Ferimentos Penetrantes/epidemiologia
5.
J Intensive Care Med ; 37(6): 728-735, 2022 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34231406

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There is little research evaluating outcomes from sepsis in intensive care units (ICUs) with lower sepsis patient volumes as compared to ICUs with higher sepsis patient volumes. Our objective was to compare the outcomes of septic patients admitted to ICUs with different sepsis patient volumes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We included all patients from the eICU-CRD database admitted for the management of sepsis with blood lactate ≥ 2mmol/L within 24 hours of admission. Our primary outcome was ICU mortality. Secondary outcomes included hospital mortality, 30-day ventilator free days, and initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT). ICUs were grouped in quartiles based on the number of septic patients treated at each unit. RESULTS: 10,716 patients were included in our analysis; 272 (2.5%) in low sepsis volume ICUs, 1,078 (10.1%) in medium-low sepsis volume ICUs, 2,608 (24.3%) in medium-high sepsis volume ICUs, and 6,758 (63.1%) in high sepsis volume ICUs. On multivariable analyses, no significant differences were documented regarding ICU and hospital mortality, and ventilator days in patients treated in lower versus higher sepsis volume ICUs. Patients treated at lower sepsis volume ICUs had lower rates of RRT initiation as compared to high volume units (medium-high vs. high: OR = 0.78, 95%CI = 0.66-0.91, P-value = 0.002 and medium-low vs. high: OR = 0.57, 95%CI = 0.44-0.73, P-value < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The previously described volume-outcome association in septic patients was not identified in an intensive care setting.

6.
Surgery ; 170(5): 1501-1507, 2021 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34176601

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The Emergency Surgery Score was recently validated in a prospective multicenter study as an accurate predictor of mortality in emergency general surgery patients. The Emergency Surgery Score is easily calculated using multiple demographic, comorbidity, laboratory, and acuity of disease variables. We aimed to investigate whether the Emergency Surgery Score can predict 30-day postoperative mortality across patients undergoing emergency surgery in multiple surgical specialties. METHODS: Our study is a retrospective cohort study using data from the national American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2007-2017). We included patients that underwent emergency gynecologic, urologic, thoracic, neurosurgical, orthopedic, vascular, cardiac, and general surgical procedures. The Emergency Surgery Score was calculated for each patient, and the correlation between the Emergency Surgery Score and 30-day mortality was assessed for each specialty using the c-statistics methodology. RESULTS: Of 6,485,915 patients, 173,890 patients were included. The mean age was 60 years, 50.6% were female patients, and the overall mortality was 9.7%. The Emergency Surgery Score predicted mortality best in emergency gynecologic, general, and urologic surgery (c-statistics: 0.97, 0.87, 0.81, respectively). The Emergency Surgery Score predicted mortality moderately well in emergency thoracic, neurosurgical, orthopedic, and vascular surgery (c-statistics 0.73-0.79). For example, the mortality of gynecology patients with an Emergency Surgery Score of 5, 9, and 13 was 2%, 27%, and 50%, respectively. The Emergency Surgery Score performed poorly in cardiac surgery. CONCLUSION: The Emergency Surgery Score accurately predicts mortality across patients undergoing emergency surgery in multiple surgical specialties, especially general, gynecologic, and urologic surgery. The Emergency Surgery Score can prove useful for perioperative patient counseling and for benchmarking the quality of surgical care.


Assuntos
Serviços Médicos de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Cirurgia Geral/estatística & dados numéricos , Indicadores Básicos de Saúde , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Operatórios/mortalidade , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
7.
J Trauma Acute Care Surg ; 90(6): 1054-1060, 2021 06 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34016929

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In-field triage tools for trauma patients are limited by availability of information, linear risk classification, and a lack of confidence reporting. We therefore set out to develop and test a machine learning algorithm that can overcome these limitations by accurately and confidently making predictions to support in-field triage in the first hours after traumatic injury. METHODS: Using an American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program-derived database of truncal and junctional gunshot wound (GSW) patients (aged 16-60 years), we trained an information-aware Dirichlet deep neural network (field artificial intelligence triage). Using supervised training, field artificial intelligence triage was trained to predict shock and the need for major hemorrhage control procedures or early massive transfusion (MT) using GSW anatomical locations, vital signs, and patient information available in the field. In parallel, a confidence model was developed to predict the true-class probability (scale of 0-1), indicating the likelihood that the prediction made was correct, based on the values and interconnectivity of input variables. RESULTS: A total of 29,816 patients met all the inclusion criteria. Shock, major surgery, and early MT were identified in 13.0%, 22.4%, and 6.3% of the included patients, respectively. Field artificial intelligence triage achieved mean areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89, 0.86, and 0.82 for prediction of shock, early MT, and major surgery, respectively, for 80/20 train-test splits over 1,000 epochs. Mean predicted true-class probability for errors/correct predictions was 0.25/0.87 for shock, 0.30/0.81 for MT, and 0.24/0.69 for major surgery. CONCLUSION: Field artificial intelligence triage accurately identifies potential shock in truncal GSW patients and predicts their need for MT and major surgery, with a high degree of certainty. The presented model is an important proof of concept. Future iterations will use an expansion of databases to refine and validate the model, further adding to its potential to improve triage in the field, both in civilian and military settings. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic, Level III.


Assuntos
Inteligência Artificial , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/métodos , Traumatismos Torácicos/diagnóstico , Triagem/métodos , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/diagnóstico , Adulto , Transfusão de Sangue/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos de Viabilidade , Feminino , Hemorragia/epidemiologia , Hemorragia/etiologia , Hemorragia/terapia , Humanos , Escala de Gravidade do Ferimento , Masculino , Modelos Cardiovasculares , Curva ROC , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Choque/epidemiologia , Choque/etiologia , Choque/terapia , Traumatismos Torácicos/complicações , Traumatismos Torácicos/terapia , Centros de Traumatologia , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/complicações , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/terapia , Adulto Jovem
8.
J Trauma Acute Care Surg ; 90(3): 471-476, 2021 03 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33055577

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) is a point-based scoring system validated to predict mortality and morbidity in emergency general surgery (EGS). In addition to demographics and comorbidities, ESS accounts for the acuity of disease at presentation. We sought to examine whether ESS can predict the destination of discharge of EGS patients, as a proxy for quality of life at discharge. METHODS: Using the 2007 to 2017 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we identified all EGS patients. EGS cases were defined as per American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program as those performed by a general surgeon within a short interval from diagnosis or the onset of related symptomatology, when the patient's well-being and outcome may be threatened by unnecessary delay and patient's status could deteriorate unpredictably or rapidly. Emergency Surgery Score patients were then categorized by their discharge disposition to home versus rehabilitation or nursing facilities. All patients with missing ESS or discharge disposition and those discharged to hospice, senior communities, or separate acute care facilities were excluded. Emergency Surgery Score was calculated for each patient. C statistics were used to study the correlation between ESS and the destination of discharge. RESULTS: Of 6,485,915 patients, 84,694 were included. The mean age was 57 years, 51% were female, and 79.6% were discharged home. The mean ESS was 5. Emergency Surgery Score accurately and reliably predicted the discharge destination with a C statistic of 0.83. For example, ESS of 1, 10, and 20 were associated with 0.9%, 56.5%, and 100% rates of discharge to a rehabilitation or nursing facility instead of home. CONCLUSION: Emergency Surgery Score accurately predicts which EGS patients require discharge to rehabilitation or nursing facilities and can thus be used for preoperatively counseling patients and families and for improving early discharge preparations, when appropriate. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and epidemiological, level III.


Assuntos
Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Gravidade do Paciente , Alta do Paciente , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Operatórios/efeitos adversos , Idoso , Bases de Dados Factuais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Melhoria de Qualidade , Qualidade de Vida , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Estados Unidos
9.
J Trauma Acute Care Surg ; 89(6): 1039-1045, 2020 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32697447

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Western Trauma Association guidelines recommend admitting patients 65 years or older with two or more rib fractures diagnosed by chest radiograph to the intensive care unit (ICU). Increased use of computed tomography has led to identification of less severe, "occult" rib fractures. We aimed to evaluate current national trends in disposition of older patients with isolated rib cage fractures and to identify characteristics of patients initially admitted to the ward who failed ward management. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients 65 years or older with isolated two or more blunt rib cage fractures using the 2010 to 2016 American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program database was performed. Ward failure was defined as patients initially admitted to the ward with subsequent need for unplanned ICU admission or intubation. Multivariable analyses were derived to study the independent predictors of failure of ward management. Propensity score matching sub-analysis was used to assess outcomes in patients admitted to the ward versus ICU. RESULTS: There were 5,021 patients included in the analysis. Of these patients, 1,406 (28.0%) were admitted to the ICU. On multivariable analysis, age was an independent predictor of ICU admission. Of the 3,577 patients admitted directly to the ward, 38 (1.1%) patients required unplanned intubation or ICU admission. Independent predictors of failure of ward management included chronic renal failure (odds ratio [OR], 7.20; p ≤ 0.001; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.50-20.76), traumatic pneumothorax (OR, 8.70; p = 0.008; 95% CI, 1.76-42.93), concurrent sternal fracture (OR, 6.52; p ≤ 0.001; 95% CI, 2.53-16.80), drug use disorder (OR, 6.58; p = 0.032; 95% CI, 1.17-36.96), and emergency department oxygen requirement or oxygen saturation less than 95% (OR, 2.38; p = 0.018; 95% CI, 1.16-4.86). Mortality was higher in patients with delayed ICU care versus patients with successful ward disposition (21.1% vs. 0.8%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the majority of isolated rib cage fractures in older patients are safely managed on the ward with exceedingly low ward failure rates (1.1%). Patients with failure of ward management have significantly higher mortality, and we have identified predictors of failing the ward. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic/Care Management, level IV; Prognostic III.


Assuntos
Mortalidade Hospitalar , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/normas , Admissão do Paciente/normas , Fraturas das Costelas/diagnóstico , Fraturas das Costelas/terapia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Bases de Dados Factuais , Feminino , Humanos , Escala de Gravidade do Ferimento , Masculino , Análise Multivariada , Admissão do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumotórax/epidemiologia , Pontuação de Propensão , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fraturas das Costelas/complicações , Medição de Risco , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias/epidemiologia , Traumatismos Torácicos/epidemiologia , Centros de Traumatologia/normas , Centros de Traumatologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Falha de Tratamento
10.
J Trauma Acute Care Surg ; 89(1): 111-117, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32039973

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of vitamin C (VitC) and thiamine (THMN) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with sepsis is unclear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of VitC and THMN on mortality and lactate clearance in ICU patients. We hypothesized that survival and lactate clearance would be improved when treated with thiamine and/or VitC. METHODS: The Philips eICU database version 2.0 was queried for patients admitted to the ICU in 2014 to 2015 for 48 hours or longer and patients with sepsis and an elevated lactate of 2.0 mmol/L or greater. Subjects were categorized according to the receipt of VitC, THMN, both, or neither. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcome was lactate clearance defined as lactate less than 2.0 mmol/L achieved after maximum lactate. Univariable comparisons included age, sex, race, Acute Physiology Score III, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IVa score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, surgical ICU admission status, intubation status, hospital region, liver disease, vasopressors, steroids, VitC and THMN orders. Kaplan-Meier curves, logistic regression, propensity score matching, and competing risks modeling were constructed. RESULTS: Of 146,687 patients from 186 hospitals, 7.7% (n = 11,330) were included. Overall mortality was 25.9% (n = 2,930). Evidence in favor of an association between VitC and/or THMN administration, and survival was found on log rank test (all p < 0.001). After controlling for confounding factors, VitC (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.69 [0.50-0.95]) and THMN (AOR, 0.71 [0.55-0.93]) were independently associated with survival and THMN was associated with lactate clearance (AOR, 1.50 [1.22-1.96]). On competing risk model VitC (AOR, 0.675 [0.463-0.983]), THMN (AOR, 0.744 [0.569-0.974]), and VitC+THMN (AOR, 0.335 [0.13-0.865]) were associated with survival but not lactate clearance. For subgroup analysis of patients on vasopressors, VitC+THMN were associated with lactate clearance (AOR, 1.85 [1.05-3.24]) and survival (AOR, 0.223 [0.0678-0.735]). CONCLUSION: VitC+THMN is associated with increased survival in septic ICU patients. Randomized, multicenter trials are needed to better understand their effects on outcomes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Study, Level IV.


Assuntos
Ácido Ascórbico/uso terapêutico , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Sepse/tratamento farmacológico , Sepse/mortalidade , Tiamina/uso terapêutico , APACHE , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Lactatos/metabolismo , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Escores de Disfunção Orgânica , Pontuação de Propensão , Taxa de Sobrevida
11.
Trauma Surg Acute Care Open ; 4(1): e000351, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31799416

RESUMO

Introduction: Gunshot wounds to the brain (GSWB) confer high lethality and uncertain recovery. It is unclear which patients benefit from aggressive resuscitation, and furthermore whether patients with GSWB undergoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) have potential for survival or organ donation. Therefore, we sought to determine the rates of survival and organ donation, as well as identify factors associated with both outcomes in patients with GSWB undergoing CPR. Methods: We performed a retrospective, multicenter study at 25 US trauma centers including dates between June 1, 2011 and December 31, 2017. Patients were included if they suffered isolated GSWB and required CPR at a referring hospital, in the field, or in the trauma resuscitation room. Patients were excluded for significant torso or extremity injuries, or if pregnant. Binomial regression models were used to determine predictors of survival/organ donation. Results: 825 patients met study criteria; the majority were male (87.6%) with a mean age of 36.5 years. Most (67%) underwent CPR in the field and 2.1% (n=17) survived to discharge. Of the non-survivors, 17.5% (n=141) were considered eligible donors, with a donation rate of 58.9% (n=83) in this group. Regression models found several predictors of survival. Hormone replacement was predictive of both survival and organ donation. Conclusion: We found that GSWB requiring CPR during trauma resuscitation was associated with a 2.1% survival rate and overall organ donation rate of 10.3%. Several factors appear to be favorably associated with survival, although predictions are uncertain due to the low number of survivors in this patient population. Hormone replacement was predictive of both survival and organ donation. These results are a starting point for determining appropriate treatment algorithms for this devastating clinical condition. Level of evidence: Level II.

12.
Am Surg ; 85(7): 725-729, 2019 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31405416

RESUMO

Prior studies have used vital signs and laboratory measurements with conventional modeling techniques to predict acute kidney injury (AKI). The purpose of this study was to use the trend in vital signs and laboratory measurements with machine learning algorithms for predicting AKI in ICU patients. The eICU Collaborative Research Database was queried for five consecutive days of laboratory measurements per patient. Patients with AKI were identified and trends in vital signs and laboratory values were determined by calculating the slope of the least-squares-fit linear equation using three days for each value. Different machine learning classifiers (gradient boosted trees [GBT], logistic regression, and deep learning) were trained to predict AKI using the laboratory values, vital signs, and slopes. There were 151,098 ICU stays identified and the rate of AKI was 5.6 per cent. The best performing algorithm was GBT with an AUC of 0.834 ± 0.006 and an F-measure of 42.96 per cent ± 1.26 per cent. Logistic regression performed with an AUC of 0.827 ± 0.004 and an F-measure of 28.29 per cent ± 1.01 per cent. Deep learning performed with an AUC of 0.817 ± 0.005 and an F-measure of 42.89 per cent ± 0.91 per cent. The most important variable for GBT was the slope of the minimum creatinine (30.32%). This study identifies the best performing machine learning algorithms for predicting AKI using trends in laboratory values in ICU patients. Early identification of these patients using readily available data indicates that incorporating machine learning predictive models into electronic medical record systems is an inevitable requisite for improving patient outcomes.


Assuntos
Injúria Renal Aguda/diagnóstico , Aprendizado de Máquina , Adulto , Análise de Variância , Creatinina/análise , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Sinais Vitais/fisiologia
13.
J Surg Res ; 228: 179-187, 2018 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29907209

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Early identification of critically ill patients who will require prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) has proven to be difficult. The purpose of this study was to use machine learning to identify patients at risk for PMV and tracheostomy placement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care III database was queried for all intensive care unit (ICU) stays with mechanical ventilation. PMV was defined as ventilation >7 d. Classifiers with a gradient-boosted decision trees algorithm were created for the outcomes of PMV and tracheostomy placement. The variables used were six different severity-of-illness scores calculated on the first day of ICU admission including their components and 30 comorbidities. Mean receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated for the outcomes, and variable importance was quantified. RESULTS: There were 20,262 ICU stays identified. PMV was required in 13.6%, and tracheostomy was performed in 6.6% of patients. The classifier for predicting PMV was able to achieve a mean area under the curve (AUC) of 0.820 ± 0.016, and tracheostomy was predicted with an AUC of 0.830 ± 0.011. There were 60.7% patients admitted to a surgical ICU, and the classifiers for these patients predicted PMV with an AUC of 0.852 ± 0.017 and tracheostomy with an AUC of 0.869 ± 0.015. The variable with the highest importance for predicting PMV was the logistic organ dysfunction score pulmonary component (13%), and the most important comorbidity in predicting tracheostomy was cardiac arrhythmia (12%). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the use of artificial intelligence through machine-learning classifiers for the early identification of patients at risk for PMV and tracheostomy. Application of these identification techniques could lead to improved outcomes by allowing for early intervention.


Assuntos
Estado Terminal/terapia , Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão , Respiração Artificial/estatística & dados numéricos , Aprendizado de Máquina Supervisionado , Traqueostomia/estatística & dados numéricos , Cuidados Críticos/métodos , Cuidados Críticos/estatística & dados numéricos , Bases de Dados Factuais/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos de Viabilidade , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Tempo de Internação/estatística & dados numéricos , Seleção de Pacientes , Medição de Risco/métodos , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do Tratamento
14.
Cell Transplant ; 18(3): 297-304, 2009.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19558778

RESUMO

Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the US. Following an acute myocardial infarction, a fibrous, noncontractile scar develops, and results in congestive heart failure in more than 500,000 patients in the US each year. Muscle regeneration and the induction of new vascular growth to treat ischemic disorders of the heart can have significant therapeutic implications. Early studies in patients with chronic ischemic systolic left ventricular dysfunction (SLVD) using skeletal myoblasts or bone marrow-derived cells report improvement in left ventricular ejection function (LVEF) and clinical status, without notable safety issues. Nonetheless, the efficacy of cell transfer for cardiovascular disease is not established, in part due to a lack of control over cell retention, survival, and function following delivery. We studied the use of biocompatible hydrogels polymerizable in situ as a cell delivery vehicle, to improve cell retention, survival, and function following delivery into the ischemic myocardium. The study was conducted using human bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells and fibrin glue, but the methods are applicable to any human stem cells (adult or embryonic) and a wide range of hydrogels. We first evaluated the utility of several commercially available percutaneous catheters for delivery of viscous cell/hydrogel suspensions. Next we characterized the polymerization kinetics of fibrin glue solutions to define the ranges of concentrations compatible with catheter delivery. We then demonstrate the in vivo effectiveness of this preparation and its ability to increase cell retention and survival in a nude rat model of myocardial infarction.


Assuntos
Hidrogéis/metabolismo , Miocárdio/citologia , Polímeros/metabolismo , Transplante de Células-Tronco/métodos , Animais , Cateterismo , Sobrevivência Celular , Adesivo Tecidual de Fibrina/metabolismo , Fibrinogênio/metabolismo , Humanos , Células-Tronco Mesenquimais/citologia , Células-Tronco Mesenquimais/ultraestrutura , Peso Molecular , Ratos , Soluções , Viscosidade
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