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2.
Ann Intern Med ; 2019 Dec 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31869834

RESUMO

Background: Preliminary data suggest that preoperative N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) may improve risk prediction in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Objective: To determine whether preoperative NT-proBNP has additional predictive value beyond a clinical risk score for the composite of vascular death and myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) within 30 days after surgery. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: 16 hospitals in 9 countries. Patients: 10 402 patients aged 45 years or older having inpatient noncardiac surgery. Measurements: All patients had NT-proBNP levels measured before surgery and troponin T levels measured daily for up to 3 days after surgery. Results: In multivariable analyses, compared with preoperative NT-proBNP values less than 100 pg/mL (the reference group), those of 100 to less than 200 pg/mL, 200 to less than 1500 pg/mL, and 1500 pg/mL or greater were associated with adjusted hazard ratios of 2.27 (95% CI, 1.90 to 2.70), 3.63 (CI, 3.13 to 4.21), and 5.82 (CI, 4.81 to 7.05) and corresponding incidences of the primary outcome of 12.3% (226 of 1843), 20.8% (542 of 2608), and 37.5% (223 of 595), respectively. Adding NT-proBNP thresholds to clinical stratification (that is, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index [RCRI]) resulted in a net absolute reclassification improvement of 258 per 1000 patients. Preoperative NT-proBNP values were also statistically significantly associated with 30-day all-cause mortality (less than 100 pg/mL [incidence, 0.3%], 100 to less than 200 pg/mL [incidence, 0.7%], 200 to less than 1500 pg/mL [incidence, 1.4%], and 1500 pg/mL or greater [incidence, 4.0%]). Limitation: External validation of the identified NT-proBNP thresholds in other cohorts would reinforce our findings. Conclusion: Preoperative NT-proBNP is strongly associated with vascular death and MINS within 30 days after noncardiac surgery and improves cardiac risk prediction in addition to the RCRI. Primary Funding Source: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

3.
Br J Anaesth ; 2019 Dec 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31864719

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) questionnaire might help incorporate self-reported functional capacity into preoperative risk assessment. Nonetheless, prognostically important thresholds in DASI scores remain unclear. We conducted a nested cohort analysis of the Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) study to characterise the association of preoperative DASI scores with postoperative death or complications. METHODS: The analysis included 1546 participants (≥40 yr of age) at an elevated cardiac risk who had inpatient noncardiac surgery. The primary outcome was 30-day death or myocardial injury. The secondary outcomes were 30-day death or myocardial infarction, in-hospital moderate-to-severe complications, and 1 yr death or new disability. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to characterise the adjusted association of preoperative DASI scores with outcomes. RESULTS: The DASI score had non-linear associations with outcomes. Self-reported functional capacity better than a DASI score of 34 was associated with reduced odds of 30-day death or myocardial injury (odds ratio: 0.97 per 1 point increase above 34; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-0.99) and 1 yr death or new disability (odds ratio: 0.96 per 1 point increase above 34; 95% CI: 0.92-0.99). Self-reported functional capacity worse than a DASI score of 34 was associated with increased odds of 30-day death or myocardial infarction (odds ratio: 1.05 per 1 point decrease below 34; 95% CI: 1.00-1.09), and moderate-to-severe complications (odds ratio: 1.03 per 1 point decrease below 34; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05). CONCLUSIONS: A DASI score of 34 represents a threshold for identifying patients at risk for myocardial injury, myocardial infarction, moderate-to-severe complications, and new disability.

4.
J Intensive Care Soc ; 20(4): 316-326, 2019 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31695736

RESUMO

Background: The relationship between postoperative intensive care (ICU) admission following emergency general surgery (EGS) and emergency hospital readmission has not been widely investigated. Methods: Retrospective analysis of registry data for patients undergoing EGS in Scotland, 2005-2007. Exposure of interest was ICU admission status (direct from theatre; indirect after initial care on ward; no ICU admission). The primary outcome was emergency hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge. Results: Thirty-seven thousand one hundred seventy-three patients were included in the analysis. Overall emergency readmission rate was 8% (n = 2983): 2756 (7.8%) in patients without postoperative ICU admission; 155 (12.1%) with direct ICU admission and 65 (14.7%) with indirect ICU admission. Indirect ICU admission was associated with increased hospital readmission rates (HR 1.24 [1.03, 1.49]; p = 0.024) compared with direct ICU admission. ICU admission was associated with increased three-year readmission rates (p = 0.006) and costs (p < 0.001) compared with initial ward care. Conclusion: Indirect ICU admission is associated with increased emergency hospital readmission and healthcare costs for patients undergoing EGS.

6.
Int J Surg ; 72: 25-31, 2019 Oct 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31604139

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery are exposed to a high risk of death. A quality improvement (QI) programme to improve the survival for these patients was evaluated in the Enhanced Peri-Operative Care for High-risk patients (EPOCH) trial. This study aims to assess its cost-effectiveness versus usual care from a UK health service perspective. METHODS: Data collected in a subsample of trial participants were employed to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for the QI programme and usual care within the 180-day trial period, with results also extrapolated to estimate lifetime costs and QALYs. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The probability of being cost-effective was determined for different cost-effectiveness thresholds (£13,000 to £30,000 per QALY). Analyses were performed for lower-risk and higher-risk subgroups based on the number of surgical indications (single vs multiple). RESULTS: Within the trial period, QI was more costly (£467) but less effective (-0.002 QALYs). Over a lifetime, it was more costly (£1395) and more effective (0.018 QALYs), but did not appear to be cost-effective (ICER: £77,792 per QALY, higher than all cost-effectiveness thresholds; probability of being cost-effective: 28.7%-43.8% across the thresholds). For lower-risk patients, QI was more costly and less effective both within trial period and over a lifetime and it did not appear to be cost-effective. For higher-risk patients, it was more costly and more effective, and did not appear cost-effective within the trial period (ICER: £158,253 per QALY) but may be cost-effective over a lifetime (ICER: £14,293 per QALY). CONCLUSION: The QI programme does not appear cost-effective at standard cost-effectiveness thresholds. For patients with multiple surgical indications, this programme is potentially cost-effective over a lifetime, but this is highly uncertain.

7.
Eur J Anaesthesiol ; 36(12): 924-932, 2019 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31633603

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an important adverse outcome after major surgery. Peri-operative goal-directed haemodynamic therapy (GDT) may improve outcomes by reducing complications such as AKI. OBJECTIVE: To determine if GDT was associated with a reduced incidence of postoperative AKI according to specific renal biomarkers. DESIGN: Prospective substudy of the OPTIMISE trial, a multicentre randomised controlled trial comparing peri-operative GDT to usual patient care. SETTING: Four UK National Health Service hospitals. PATIENTS: A total of 287 high-risk patients aged at least 50 years undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was AKI defined as urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipase (NGAL) at least 150 ng ml 24 and 72 h after surgery. Secondary outcomes were between-group differences in NGAL measurements and NGAL : creatinine ratios 24 and 72 h after surgery and AKI stage 2 or greater according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria within 30 days of surgery. RESULTS: In total, 20 of 287 patients (7%) experienced postoperative AKI of KDIGO grade 2 or 3 within 30 days. The proportion of patients with urinary NGAL at least 150 ng ml 24 or 72 h after surgery was similar in the two groups [GDT 31/144 (21.5%) patients vs. usual patient care 28/143 (19.6%) patients; P = 0.88]. Absolute values of urinary NGAL were also similar at 24 h (GDT 53.5 vs. usual patient care 44.1 ng ml; P = 0.38) and 72 h (GDT 45.1 vs. usual patient care 41.1 ng ml; P = 0.50) as were urinary NGAL : creatinine ratios at 24 h (GDT 45 vs. usual patient care 43 ng mg; P = 0.63) and 72 h (GDT 66 vs. usual patient care 63 ng mg; P = 0.62). The incidence of KDIGO-defined AKI was also similar between the groups [GDT 9/144 (6%) patients vs. usual patient care 11/143 (8%) patients; P = 0.80]. CONCLUSION: In this trial, GDT did not reduce the incidence of AKI amongst high-risk patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. This may reflect improving standards in usual patient care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: OPTIMISE Trial Registration ISRCTN04386758.

9.
BMJ Qual Saf ; 2019 Sep 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31515437

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A clinical trial in 93 National Health Service hospitals evaluated a quality improvement programme for emergency abdominal surgery, designed to improve mortality by improving the patient care pathway. Large variation was observed in implementation approaches, and the main trial result showed no mortality reduction. Our objective therefore was to evaluate whether trial participation led to care pathway implementation and to study the relationship between care pathway implementation and use of six recommended implementation strategies. METHODS: We performed a hospital-level time-series analysis using data from the Enhanced Peri-Operative Care for High-risk patients trial. Care pathway implementation was defined as achievement of >80% median reliability in 10 measured care processes. Mean monthly process performance was plotted on run charts. Process improvement was defined as an observed run chart signal, using probability-based 'shift' and 'runs' rules. A new median performance level was calculated after an observed signal. RESULTS: Of 93 participating hospitals, 80 provided sufficient data for analysis, generating 800 process measure charts from 20 305 patient admissions over 27 months. No hospital reliably implemented all 10 processes. Overall, only 279 of the 800 processes were improved (3 (2-5) per hospital) and 14/80 hospitals improved more than six processes. Mortality risk documented (57/80 (71%)), lactate measurement (42/80 (53%)) and cardiac output guided fluid therapy (32/80 (40%)) were most frequently improved. Consultant-led decision making (14/80 (18%)), consultant review before surgery (17/80 (21%)) and time to surgery (14/80 (18%)) were least frequently improved. In hospitals using ≥5 implementation strategies, 9/30 (30%) hospitals improved ≥6 care processes compared with 0/11 hospitals using ≤2 implementation strategies. CONCLUSION: Only a small number of hospitals improved more than half of the measured care processes, more often when at least five of six implementation strategies were used. In a longer term project, this understanding may have allowed us to adapt the intervention to be effective in more hospitals.

10.
Intensive Care Med ; 45(12): 1718-1731, 2019 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31531715

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Muscle wasting is common amongst patients with persistent critical illness and associated with increased urea production, but reduced creatinine production. We hypothesised that elevated urea:creatinine ratio would provide a biochemical signature of muscle catabolism and characterise prolonged intensive care (ICU) admissions after major trauma. METHODS: Using pre-specified hypotheses, we analysed two existing data sets of adults surviving ≥ 10 days following admission to ICU after major trauma. We analysed trauma-ICU admissions to the major trauma centre serving the North East London and Essex Trauma Network, with a verification cohort of trauma-ICU cases from the MIMIC-III database. We compared serum urea, creatinine, and urea:creatinine ratio (ratio of concentrations in mmol/L) between patients with persistent critical illness (defined as ICU stay of ≥ 10 days) and those discharged from ICU before day 10. In a sub-group undergoing sequential abdominal computerised tomography (CT), we measured change in cross-sectional muscle area (psoas muscle at L4 vertebral level and total muscle at L3 level) and assessed for relationships with urea:creatinine ratio and ICU stay. Results are provided as median [interquartile range]. RESULTS: We included 1173 patients between February 1st, 2012 and May 1st, 2016. In patients with ICU stay ≥ 10 days, day 10 urea:creatinine ratio had increased by 133% [72-215], from 62 [46-78] to 141 [114-178], p < 0.001; this rise was larger (p < 0.001) than in patients discharged from ICU before day 10, 59% [11-122%], 61 [45-75] to 97 [67-128], p < 0.001. A similar separation in trajectory of urea:creatinine ratio was observed in 2876 trauma-ICU admissions from MIMIC-III. In 107 patients undergoing serial CTs, decrease in L4 psoas and L3 muscle cross-sectional areas between CTs significantly correlated with time elapsed (R2 = 0.64 and R2 = 0.59, respectively). Rate of muscle decrease was significantly greater (p < 0.001 for interaction terms) in 53/107 patients with the second CT during evolving, current or recent persistent critical illness. In this group, at the second CT urea:creatinine ratio negatively correlated with L4 psoas and L3 muscle cross-sectional areas (R2 0.39, p < 0.001 and 0.44, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Elevated urea:creatinine ratio accompanies skeletal muscle wasting representing a biochemical signature of persistent critical illness after major trauma. If prospectively confirmed, urea:creatinine ratio is a potential surrogate of catabolism to examine in epidemiological and interventional studies.

12.
PLoS One ; 14(8): e0221277, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31433825

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Impaired cardiac vagal function, quantified preoperatively as slower heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise, is independently associated with perioperative myocardial injury. Parasympathetic (vagal) dysfunction may also promote (extra-cardiac) multi-organ dysfunction, although perioperative data are lacking. Assuming that cardiac vagal activity, and therefore heart rate recovery response, is a marker of brainstem parasympathetic dysfunction, we hypothesized that impaired HRR would be associated with a higher incidence of morbidity after noncardiac surgery. METHODS: In two prospective, blinded, observational cohort studies, we established the definition of impaired vagal function in terms of the HRR threshold that is associated with perioperative myocardial injury (HRR ≤ 12 beats min-1 (bpm), 60 seconds after cessation of cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The primary outcome of this secondary analysis was all-cause morbidity three and five days after surgery, defined using the Post-Operative Morbidity Survey. Secondary outcomes of this analysis were type of morbidity and time to become morbidity-free. Logistic regression and Cox regression tested for the association between HRR and morbidity. Results are presented as odds/hazard ratios [OR or HR; (95% confidence intervals). RESULTS: 882/1941 (45.4%) patients had HRR≤12bpm. All-cause morbidity within 5 days of surgery was more common in 585/822 (71.2%) patients with HRR≤12bpm, compared to 718/1119 (64.2%) patients with HRR>12bpm (OR:1.38 (1.14-1.67); p = 0.001). HRR≤12bpm was associated with more frequent episodes of pulmonary (OR:1.31 (1.05-1.62);p = 0.02)), infective (OR:1.38 (1.10-1.72); p = 0.006), renal (OR:1.91 (1.30-2.79); p = 0.02)), cardiovascular (OR:1.39 (1.15-1.69); p<0.001)), neurological (OR:1.73 (1.11-2.70); p = 0.02)) and pain morbidity (OR:1.38 (1.14-1.68); p = 0.001) within 5 days of surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Multi-organ dysfunction is more common in surgical patients with cardiac vagal dysfunction, defined as HRR ≤ 12 bpm after preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY: ISRCTN88456378.

13.
Perioper Med (Lond) ; 8: 2, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31338159

RESUMO

Perioperative fluid and hemodynamic management have been much-debated topics over the last few years. Recently, a number of large trials have been published to help inform this debate. The Restrictive versus Liberal Fluid Therapy for Major Abdominal Surgery (RELIEF) study is the largest trial to date of perioperative fluid management. The 3000-patient trial comparing 2 different fluid regimes showed that a restrictive fluid regimen during and up to 24 h after surgery was associated with an increase in acute kidney injury (AKI). This result is at odds with a recent trend to a more restrictive fluid approach during major surgery and suggests that practice may have become too restrictive. A moderately liberal (aiming for 1-2 l positive) or goal-directed approach is therefore recommended.

16.
Br J Anaesth ; 123(1): 17-26, 2019 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31029407

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Physiological measures of heart failure are common in surgical patients, despite the absence of a diagnosis. Heart rate (HR) increases during exercise are frequently blunted in heart failure (termed chronotropic incompetence), which primarily reflects beta-adrenoreceptor dysfunction. We examined whether chronotropic incompetence was associated with myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery. METHODS: This was a predefined analysis of an international cohort study where participants aged ≥40 yr underwent symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing before noncardiac surgery. Chronotropic incompetence was defined as the ratio of increase in HR during exercise to age-predicted maximal increase in HR <0.6. The primary outcome was myocardial injury within 3 days after surgery, defined by high-sensitivity troponin assays >99th centile. Explanatory variables were biomarkers for heart failure (ventilatory efficiency slope [minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production] ≥34; peak oxygen consumption ≤14 ml kg-1 min-1; HR recovery ≤6 beats min-1 decrease 1 min post-exercise; preoperative N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT pro-BNP] >300 pg ml-1). Myocardial injury was compared in the presence or absence of sympathetic (i.e. chronotropic incompetence) or parasympathetic (i.e. impaired HR recovery after exercise) thresholds indicative of dysfunction. Data are presented as odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals). RESULTS: Chronotropic incompetence occurred in 396/1325 (29.9%) participants; only 16/1325 (1.2%) had a heart failure diagnosis. Myocardial injury was sustained by 162/1325 (12.2%) patients. Raised preoperative NT pro-BNP was more common when chronotropic incompetence was <0.6 (OR: 1.57 [1.11-2.23]; P=0.011). Chronotropic incompetence was not significantly associated with myocardial injury (OR: 1.05 [0.74-1.50]; P=0.78), independent of rate-limiting therapy. HR recovery <12 beats min-1 decrease after exercise was associated with myocardial injury in the presence (OR: 1.62 [1.05-2.51]; P=0.03) or absence (OR: 1.60 [1.06-2.39]; P=0.02) of chronotropic incompetence. CONCLUSIONS: Chronotropic incompetence is common in surgical patients. In contrast to parasympathetic dysfunction which was associated with myocardial injury, preoperative chronotropic incompetence (suggestive of sympathetic dysfunction) was not associated with postoperative myocardial injury.


Assuntos
Teste de Esforço , Insuficiência Cardíaca/fisiopatologia , Frequência Cardíaca/fisiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/fisiopatologia , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Operatórios , Idoso , Austrália , Canadá , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Insuficiência Cardíaca/diagnóstico , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nova Zelândia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/diagnóstico , Cuidados Pré-Operatórios , Estudos Prospectivos , Reino Unido
17.
Lancet ; 393(10187): 2213-2221, 2019 06 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31030986

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. METHODS: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. FINDINGS: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96-1·28). INTERPRETATION: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme.


Assuntos
Procedimentos Cirúrgicos do Sistema Digestório/mortalidade , Tratamento de Emergência/mortalidade , Melhoria de Qualidade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Análise por Conglomerados , Procedimentos Clínicos/normas , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos do Sistema Digestório/normas , Tratamento de Emergência/normas , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Medicina Estatal/normas , Medicina Estatal/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise de Sobrevida , Reino Unido
19.
Lancet Glob Health ; 7(4): e513-e522, 2019 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30879511

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Maternal and neonatal mortality is high in Africa, but few large, prospective studies have been done to investigate the risk factors associated with these poor maternal and neonatal outcomes. METHODS: A 7-day, international, prospective, observational cohort study was done in patients having caesarean delivery in 183 hospitals across 22 countries in Africa. The inclusion criteria were all consecutive patients (aged ≥18 years) admitted to participating centres having elective and non-elective caesarean delivery during the 7-day study cohort period. To ensure a representative sample, each hospital had to provide data for 90% of the eligible patients during the recruitment week. The primary outcome was in-hospital maternal mortality and complications, which were assessed by local investigators. The study was registered on the South African National Health Research Database, number KZ_2015RP7_22, and on ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT03044899. FINDINGS: Between February, 2016, and May, 2016, 3792 patients were recruited from hospitals across Africa. 3685 were included in the postoperative complications analysis (107 missing data) and 3684 were included in the maternal mortality analysis (108 missing data). These hospitals had a combined number of specialist surgeons, obstetricians, and anaesthetists totalling 0·7 per 100 000 population (IQR 0·2-2·0). Maternal mortality was 20 (0·5%) of 3684 patients (95% CI 0·3-0·8). Complications occurred in 633 (17·4%) of 3636 mothers (16·2-18·6), which were predominantly severe intraoperative and postoperative bleeding (136 [3·8%] of 3612 mothers). Maternal mortality was independently associated with a preoperative presentation of placenta praevia, placental abruption, ruptured uterus, antepartum haemorrhage (odds ratio 4·47 [95% CI 1·46-13·65]), and perioperative severe obstetric haemorrhage (5·87 [1·99-17·34]) or anaesthesia complications (11·47 (1·20-109·20]). Neonatal mortality was 153 (4·4%) of 3506 infants (95% CI 3·7-5·0). INTERPRETATION: Maternal mortality after caesarean delivery in Africa is 50 times higher than that of high-income countries and is driven by peripartum haemorrhage and anaesthesia complications. Neonatal mortality is double the global average. Early identification and appropriate management of mothers at risk of peripartum haemorrhage might improve maternal and neonatal outcomes in Africa. FUNDING: Medical Research Council of South Africa.

20.
BMJ Open ; 9(3): e024256, 2019 03 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30850406

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The traditional approach of null hypothesis testing dominates the design and analysis of randomised controlled trials. This study aimed to demonstrate how a simple Bayesian analysis could have been used to analyse the Optimisation of Perioperative Cardiovascular Management to Improve Surgical Outcome (OPTIMISE) trial to obtain more clinically interpretable results. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS: The OPTIMISE trial was a pragmatic, multicentre, observer-blinded, randomised controlled trial of 734 high-risk patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery in 17 acute care hospitals in the UK. Patients were randomly allocated to a cardiac output-guided haemodynamic therapy algorithm for intravenous fluid and inotropic drug administration during and in the 6 hours following surgery (n=368) or to standard care (n=366). The primary outcome was a binary outcome consisting of a composite of predefined 30-day moderate or major complications and mortality. METHODS: We repeated the primary outcome analysis of the OPTIMISE trial using Bayesian statistical methods to calculate the probability that the intervention was superior, and the probability that a clinically relevant difference existed. We explored the impact of a flat prior and an evidence-based prior on our analyses. RESULTS: Although OPTIMISE was not powered to detect a statistically significant difference between the treatment arms for the observed effect size (relative risk=0.84, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.01; p=0.07), by using Bayesian analyses we were able to demonstrate that there was a 96.9% (flat prior) to 99.5% (evidence-based prior) probability that the intervention was superior to the control. CONCLUSIONS: The use of a Bayesian analytical approach provided a different interpretation of the findings of the OPTIMISE trial (compared with the original frequentist analysis), and suggested patient benefit from the intervention. Incorporation of information from previous studies provided further evidence of a benefit from the intervention. Bayesian analyses can produce results that are more easily interpretable and relevant to clinicians and policy-makers. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN04386758; Post-results.

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