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Nonlinear Dyn ; : 1-14, 2020 Jun 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32836803


In this paper, a SEIR epidemic model for the COVID-19 is built according to some general control strategies, such as hospital, quarantine and external input. Based on the data of Hubei province, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied to estimate the parameters of the system. We found that the parameters of the proposed SEIR model are different for different scenarios. Then, the model is employed to show the evolution of the epidemic in Hubei province, which shows that it can be used to forecast COVID-19 epidemic situation. Moreover, by introducing the seasonality and stochastic infection the parameters, nonlinear dynamics including chaos are found in the system. Finally, we discussed the control strategies of the COVID-19 based on the structure and parameters of the proposed model.

Entropy (Basel) ; 21(1)2019 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33266743


Research on fractional-order discrete chaotic systems has grown in recent years, and chaos synchronization of such systems is a new topic. To address the deficiencies of the extant chaos synchronization methods for fractional-order discrete chaotic systems, we proposed an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm for the parameter identification. Numerical simulations are carried out for the Hénon map, the Cat map, and their fractional-order form, as well as the fractional-order standard iterated map with hidden attractors. The problem of choosing the most appropriate sample size is discussed, and the parameter identification with noise interference is also considered. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm has the best performance among the six existing algorithms and that it is effective even with random noise interference. In addition, using two samples offers the most efficient performance for the fractional-order discrete chaotic system, while the integer-order discrete chaotic system only needs one sample.