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1.
Fam Pract ; 2021 Mar 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33783497

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Unsolicited feedback can solicit changes in prescribing. OBJECTIVES: Determine whether a low-cost intervention increases clinicians' engagement with data, and changes prescribing; with or without behavioural science techniques. METHODS: Randomized trial (ISRCTN86418238). The highest prescribing practices in England for broad-spectrum antibiotics were allocated to: feedback with behavioural impact optimization; plain feedback; or no intervention. Feedback was sent monthly for 3 months by letter, fax and email. Each included a link to a prescribing dashboard. The primary outcomes were dashboard usage and change in prescribing. RESULTS: A total of 1401 practices were randomized: 356 behavioural optimization, 347 plain feedback, and 698 control. For the primary engagement outcome, more intervention practices had their dashboards viewed compared with controls [65.7% versus 55.9%; RD 9.8%, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 4.76% to 14.9%, P < 0.001]. More plain feedback practices had their dashboard viewed than behavioural feedback practices (69.1% versus 62.4%); but not meeting the P < 0.05 threshold (6.8%, 95% CI: -0.19% to 13.8%, P = 0.069). For the primary prescribing outcome, intervention practices possibly reduced broad-spectrum prescribing to a greater extent than controls (1.42% versus 1.12%); but again not meeting the P < 0.05 threshold (coefficient -0.31%, CI: -0.7% to 0.1%, P = 0.104). The behavioural impact group reduced broad-spectrum prescribing to a greater extent than plain feedback practices (1.63% versus 1.20%; coefficient 0.41%, CI: 0.007% to 0.8%, P = 0.046). No harms were detected. CONCLUSIONS: Unsolicited feedback increased practices' engagement with data, with possible slightly reduced antibiotic prescribing (P = 0.104). Behavioural science techniques gave greater prescribing effects. The modest effects on prescribing may reflect saturation from similar initiatives on antibiotic prescribing. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN86418238.

2.
Eur Respir J ; 2021 Mar 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33737410

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The UK government stockpiles co-amoxiclav to treat bacterial complications during influenza pandemics. This pragmatic trial examines whether early co-amoxiclav use reduces re-consultation due to clinical deterioration in "at risk" children presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) in primary or ambulatory care. METHODS: "At risk" children aged 6 months to 12 years presenting within f5 days of ILI onset were randomly assigned to oral co-amoxiclav 400/57 or placebo twice daily for 5 days (dosing based on age±weight). "At risk" groups included children with respiratory, cardiac, and neurological conditions. Randomisation was stratified by region and used a non-deterministic minimisation algorithm to balance age and current seasonal influenza vaccination status. Our target sample size was 650 children, which would have allowed us to detect a reduction in the proportion of children re-consulting due to clinical deterioration from 40% to 26% with 90% power and 5% two-tailed alpha error, including allowance for 25% loss to follow-up and an inflation factor of 1.041. Participants, caregivers and investigators were blinded to treatment allocation. Intention-to-treat analysis included all randomised participants with primary outcome data on re-consultation due to clinical deterioration within 28 days. Safety analysis included all randomised participants. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 70714783. EudraCT 2013-002822-21. RESULTS: We recruited 271 children between February 11, 2015 and April 20, 2018. Primary outcome data were available for 265 children. Only 61/265 children (23.0%) re-consulted due to clinical deterioration. No evidence of a treatment effect was observed for re-consultation due to clinical deterioration (co-amoxiclav 33/133 (24.8%), placebo 28/132 (21.2%), adjusted risk ratio [RR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75 to 1.80). There was also no evidence of a difference between groups in the proportion of children for whom one or more adverse events were reported (co-amoxiclav 32/136 (23.5%), placebo 22/135 (16.3%), adjusted RR 1.45, 95% CI 0.90 to 2.34). Sixty-six adverse events were reported in total (co-amoxiclav n=37, placebo n=29). Nine serious adverse events were reported per group; none were considered related to study medication. CONCLUSION: Our trial did not find evidence that treatment with co-amoxiclav reduces risk of re-consultation due to clinical deterioration in "at risk" children who present early with ILI during influenza season. Our findings therefore do not support early co-amoxiclav use in children with seasonal ILI.

3.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33693684

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Chronological age is the strongest risk factor for most chronic diseases. Developing a biomarker-based age and understanding its most important contributing biomarkers may shed light on the effects of age on later life health and inform opportunities for disease prevention. METHODS: A subpopulation of 141,254 individuals healthy at baseline were studied, from among 480,019 UK Biobank participants aged 40-70 recruited in 2006-2010, and followed up for 6-12 years via linked death and secondary care records. Principal components of 72 biomarkers measured at baseline were characterised and used to construct sex-specific composite biomarker ages using the Klemera Doubal method, which derived a weighted sum of biomarker principal components based on their linear associations with chronological age. Biomarker importance in the biomarker ages was assessed by the proportion of the variation in the biomarker ages that each explained. The proportions of the overall biomarker and chronological age effects on mortality and age-related hospital admissions explained by the biomarker ages were compared using likelihoods in Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Reduced lung function, kidney function, reaction time, insulin-like growth factor 1, hand grip strength and higher blood pressure were key contributors to the derived biomarker age in both men and women. The biomarker ages accounted for >65% and >84% of the apparent effect of age on mortality and hospital admissions for the healthy and whole populations, respectively, and significantly improved prediction of mortality (p<0.001) and hospital admissions (p<1×10 -10) over chronological age alone. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that a broader, multi-system approach to research and prevention of diseases of ageing warrants consideration.

4.
BJGP Open ; 2021 Feb 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33589466

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Autoinflation balloons are used to treat patients with otitis media with effusion to help avoid surgery. AIM: To compare the ability of party balloons and Otovent® balloons to produce sufficient pressure for a Valsalva manoeuvre. DESIGN & SETTING: We used pressure testing to determine the number of times each balloon could produce pressures sufficient for a Valsalva manoeuvre. Subsequently, we compared Otovent® balloons with spherical party balloons in a pilot clinical trial of 12 healthy adults. METHOD: Each balloon was inflated 20 times and the maximum pressure was recorded. Three balloons of each type were tested to 50 inflations to assess pressures over persistent use. RESULTS: Otovent® balloons mean inflation pressure was 93 mmHg (95% CI 89-97 mmHg) on first inflation, dropping to 83 mmHg (95% CI 80-86 mmHg) after 20 inflations. Two types of spherical party balloon required mean inflation pressures of 84 mmHg (95% CI 77-90 mmHg) and 108 mmHg (95% CI 97-119 mmHg) on first inflation, dropping to 74 mmHg (95% CI 68-81 mmHg) and 83 mmHg (95% CI 77-88 mmHg) after 20 inflations. In the pilot trial, there was no difference between the ability of Otovent® and spherical balloons (χ2=0.24, P=0.89) to produce the sensation of a Valsalva manoeuvre. CONCLUSION: Otovent® balloons can be used more than the 20 times quoted by the manufacturer. The two spherical balloons produced similar pressures to Otovent® balloons, indicating potentially the same clinical effect. The pilot study suggests a potential use of spherical party balloons instead of Otovent® balloons as a cost-efficient treatment.

5.
Mech Ageing Dev ; 194: 111436, 2021 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33460622

RESUMO

The prevalence of multimorbidity and polypharmacy increases significantly with age and are associated with negative health consequences. However, most current interventions to optimize medication have failed to show significant effects on patient-relevant outcomes. This may be due to ineffectiveness of interventions themselves but may also reflect other factors: insufficient sample sizes, heterogeneity of population. To address this issue, the international PROPERmed collaboration was set up to obtain/synthesize individual participant data (IPD) from five cluster-randomized trials. The trials took place in Germany and The Netherlands and aimed to optimize medication in older general practice patients with chronic illness. PROPERmed is the first database of IPD to be drawn from multiple trials in this patient population and setting. It offers the opportunity to derive prognostic models with increased statistical power for prediction of patient-relevant outcomes resulting from the interplay of multimorbidity and polypharmacy. This may help patients from this heterogeneous group to be stratified according to risk and enable clinicians to identify patients that are likely to benefit most from resource/time-intensive interventions. The aim of this manuscript is to describe the rationale behind PROPERmed collaboration, characteristics of the included studies/participants, development of the harmonized IPD database and challenges faced during this process.

6.
J Clin Epidemiol ; 133: 111-120, 2021 Jan 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33515655

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate design, methods, and reporting of impact studies of cardiovascular clinical prediction rules (CPRs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a systematic review. Impact studies of cardiovascular CPRs were identified by forward citation and electronic database searches. We categorized the design of impact studies as appropriate for randomized and nonrandomized experiments, excluding uncontrolled before-after study. For impact studies with appropriate study design, we assessed the quality of methods and reporting. We compared the quality of methods and reporting between impact and matched control studies. RESULTS: We found 110 impact studies of cardiovascular CPRs. Of these, 65 (59.1%) used inappropriate designs. Of 45 impact studies with appropriate design, 31 (68.9%) had substantial risk of bias. Mean number of reporting domains that impact studies with appropriate study design adhered to was 10.2 of 21 domains (95% confidence interval, 9.3 and 11.1). The quality of methods and reporting was not clearly different between impact and matched control studies. CONCLUSION: We found most impact studies either used inappropriate study design, had substantial risk of bias, or poorly complied with reporting guidelines. This appears to be a common feature of complex interventions. Users of CPRs should critically evaluate evidence showing the effectiveness of CPRs.

7.
BMJ Open ; 11(1): e045826, 2021 01 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33495264

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: In rural and difficult-to-access settings, early and accurate recognition of febrile children at risk of progressing to serious illness could contribute to improved patient outcomes and better resource allocation. This study aims to develop a prognostic clinical prediction tool to assist community healthcare providers identify febrile children who might benefit from referral or admission for facility-based medical care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This prospective observational study will recruit at least 4900 paediatric inpatients and outpatients under the age of 5 years presenting with an acute febrile illness to seven hospitals in six countries across Asia. A venous blood sample and nasopharyngeal swab is collected from each participant and detailed clinical data recorded at presentation, and each day for the first 48 hours of admission for inpatients. Multianalyte assays are performed at reference laboratories to measure a panel of host biomarkers, as well as targeted aetiological investigations for common bacterial and viral pathogens. Clinical outcome is ascertained on day 2 and day 28.Presenting syndromes, clinical outcomes and aetiology of acute febrile illness will be described and compared across sites. Following the latest guidance in prediction model building, a prognostic clinical prediction model, combining simple clinical features and measurements of host biomarkers, will be derived and geographically externally validated. The performance of the model will be evaluated in specific presenting clinical syndromes and fever aetiologies. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has received approval from all relevant international, national and institutional ethics committees. Written informed consent is provided by the caretaker of all participants. Results will be shared with local and national stakeholders, and disseminated via peer-reviewed open-access journals and scientific meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04285021.

8.
PLoS Med ; 17(12): e1003478, 2020 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33326459

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: People with reduced kidney function have increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We present a policy model that simulates individuals' long-term health outcomes and costs to inform strategies to reduce risks of kidney and CVDs in this population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a United Kingdom primary healthcare database, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), linked with secondary healthcare and mortality data, to derive an open 2005-2013 cohort of adults (≥18 years of age) with reduced kidney function (≥2 measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <90 mL/min/1.73 m2 ≥90 days apart). Data on individuals' sociodemographic and clinical characteristics at entry and outcomes (first occurrences of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and hospitalisation for heart failure; annual kidney disease stages; and cardiovascular and nonvascular deaths) during follow-up were extracted. The cohort was used to estimate risk equations for outcomes and develop a chronic kidney disease-cardiovascular disease (CKD-CVD) health outcomes model, a Markov state transition model simulating individuals' long-term outcomes, healthcare costs, and quality of life based on their characteristics at entry. Model-simulated cumulative risks of outcomes were compared with respective observed risks using a split-sample approach. To illustrate model value, we assess the benefits of partial (i.e., at 2013 levels) and optimal (i.e., fully compliant with clinical guidelines in 2019) use of cardioprotective medications. The cohort included 1.1 million individuals with reduced kidney function (median follow-up 4.9 years, 45% men, 19% with CVD, and 74% with only mildly decreased eGFR of 60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2 at entry). Age, kidney function status, and CVD events were the key determinants of subsequent morbidity and mortality. The model-simulated cumulative disease risks corresponded well to observed risks in participant categories by eGFR level. Without the use of cardioprotective medications, for 60- to 69-year-old individuals with mildly decreased eGFR (60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2), the model projected a further 22.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 21.8-22.3) years of life if without previous CVD and 18.6 (18.2-18.9) years if with CVD. Cardioprotective medication use at 2013 levels (29%-44% of indicated individuals without CVD; 64%-76% of those with CVD) was projected to increase their life expectancy by 0.19 (0.14-0.23) and 0.90 (0.50-1.21) years, respectively. At optimal cardioprotective medication use, the projected health gains in these individuals increased by further 0.33 (0.25-0.40) and 0.37 (0.20-0.50) years, respectively. Limitations include risk factor measurements from the UK routine primary care database and limited albuminuria measurements. CONCLUSIONS: The CKD-CVD policy model is a novel resource for projecting long-term health outcomes and assessing treatment strategies in people with reduced kidney function. The model indicates clear survival benefits with cardioprotective treatments in this population and scope for further benefits if use of these treatments is optimised.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Taxa de Filtração Glomerular , Rim/fisiopatologia , Modelos Teóricos , Serviços Preventivos de Saúde , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/terapia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Bases de Dados Factuais , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Nível de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Cadeias de Markov , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Serviços Preventivos de Saúde/economia , Prognóstico , Qualidade de Vida , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/economia , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/mortalidade , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/fisiopatologia , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo
9.
J Clin Epidemiol ; 130: 1-12, 2020 Oct 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33065164

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a prognostic model to predict deterioration in health-related quality of life (dHRQoL) in older general practice patients with at least one chronic condition and one chronic prescription. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used individual participant data from five cluster-randomized trials conducted in the Netherlands and Germany to predict dHRQoL, defined as a decrease in EQ-5D-3 L index score of ≥5% after 6-month follow-up in logistic regression models with stratified intercepts to account for between-study heterogeneity. The model was validated internally and by using internal-external cross-validation (IECV). RESULTS: In 3,582 patients with complete data, of whom 1,046 (29.2%) showed deterioration in HRQoL, and 12/87 variables were selected that were related to single (chronic) conditions, inappropriate medication, medication underuse, functional status, well-being, and HRQoL. Bootstrap internal validation showed a C-statistic of 0.71 (0.69 to 0.72) and a calibration slope of 0.88 (0.78 to 0.98). In the IECV loop, the model provided a pooled C-statistic of 0.68 (0.65 to 0.70) and calibration-in-the-large of 0 (-0.13 to 0.13). HRQoL/functionality had the strongest prognostic value. CONCLUSION: The model performed well in terms of discrimination, calibration, and generalizability and might help clinicians identify older patients at high risk of dHRQoL. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ID: CRD42018088129.

10.
BJGP Open ; 2020 Oct 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33023870

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) can help general practitioners (GPs) address challenges in cardiovascular disease. A survey published in 2014 evaluated GPs' awareness and use of CPRs in the UK. However, many new CPRs have been published since and it is unknown which cardiovascular CPRs are currently recognised and used. AIM: To identify cardiovascular CPRs recognised and used by GPs, and to assess how GPs' familiarity and use have changed over time. DESIGN & SETTING: An online survey of GPs in the UK was undertaken. METHOD: Using comparable methods to the 2014 survey, GPs were recruited from a network of doctors in the UK. They were asked how familiar they were with cardiovascular CPRs, how frequently they used them, and why they used them. The results were compared with the 2014 survey. RESULTS: Most of 401 GPs were familiar with QRISK scores, ABCD scores, CHADS scores, HAS-BLED score, Wells scores for deep vein thrombosis, and Wells scores for pulmonary embolism. The proportions of GPs using these CPRs were 96.3%, 65.1%, 97.3%, 93.0%, 92.5%, and 82.0%, respectively. GPs' use increased by 31.2% for QRISK scores, by 13.5% for ABCD scores, by 54.6% for CHADS scores, by 33.2% for Wells scores for deep vein thrombosis, and by 43.6% for Wells scores for pulmonary embolism; and decreased by 45.9% for the Joint British Societies (JBS) risk calculator, by 38.7% for Framingham risk scores, and by 8.7% for New Zealand tables. GPs most commonly used cardiovascular CPRs to guide therapy and referral. CONCLUSION: The study found GPs' familiarity and use of cardiovascular CPRs changed substantially. Integrating CPRs into guidelines and practice software might increase familiarity and use.

11.
BMJ Open ; 10(10): e039747, 2020 10 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33093036

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy interventions are resource-intensive and should be targeted to those at risk of negative health outcomes. Our aim was to develop and internally validate prognostic models to predict health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and the combined outcome of falls, hospitalisation, institutionalisation and nursing care needs, in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy in general practices. METHODS: Design: two independent data sets, one comprising health insurance claims data (n=592 456), the other data from the PRIoritising MUltimedication in Multimorbidity (PRIMUM) cluster randomised controlled trial (n=502). Population: ≥60 years, ≥5 drugs, ≥3 chronic diseases, excluding dementia. Outcomes: combined outcome of falls, hospitalisation, institutionalisation and nursing care needs (after 6, 9 and 24 months) (claims data); and HRQoL (after 6 and 9 months) (trial data). Predictor variables in both data sets: age, sex, morbidity-related variables (disease count), medication-related variables (European Union-Potentially Inappropriate Medication list (EU-PIM list)) and health service utilisation. Predictor variables exclusively in trial data: additional socio-demographics, morbidity-related variables (Cumulative Illness Rating Scale, depression), Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI), lifestyle, functional status and HRQoL (EuroQol EQ-5D-3L). Analysis: mixed regression models, combined with stepwise variable selection, 10-fold cross validation and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Most important predictors of EQ-5D-3L at 6 months in best model (Nagelkerke's R² 0.507) were depressive symptoms (-2.73 (95% CI: -3.56 to -1.91)), MAI (-0.39 (95% CI: -0.7 to -0.08)), baseline EQ-5D-3L (0.55 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.64)). Models based on claims data and those predicting long-term outcomes based on both data sets produced low R² values. In claims data-based model with highest explanatory power (R²=0.16), previous falls/fall-related injuries, previous hospitalisations, age, number of involved physicians and disease count were most important predictor variables. CONCLUSIONS: Best trial data-based model predicted HRQoL after 6 months well and included parameters of well-being not found in claims. Performance of claims data-based models and models predicting long-term outcomes was relatively weak. For generalisability, future studies should refit models by considering parameters representing well-being and functional status.

12.
Ann Behav Med ; 2020 Sep 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32926081

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: National and international guidelines recommend advance care planning (ACP) for patients with heart failure. But clinicians seem hesitant to engage with ACP. PURPOSE: Our aim was to identify behavioral interventions with the greatest potential to engage clinicians with ACP in heart failure. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Systematic Reviews, Embase, ERIC, Ovid MEDLINE, Science Citation Index, and PsycINFO for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from inception to August 2018. Three reviewers independently extracted data, assessed risk of bias (Cochrane risk of bias tool), the quality of evidence (Grading of Recommendation Assessment, Development, and Evaluation), and intervention synergy according to the behavior change wheel and behavior change techniques (BCTs). Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for pooled effects. RESULTS: Of 14,483 articles screened, we assessed the full text of 131 studies. Thirteen RCTs including 3,709 participants met all of the inclusion criteria. The BCTs of prompts/cues (OR: 4.18; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.03-8.59), credible source (OR: 3.24; 95% CI: 1.44-7.28), goal setting (outcome; OR: 2.67; 95% CI: 1.56-4.57), behavioral practice/rehearsal (OR: 2.64; 95% CI: 1.50-4.67), instruction on behavior performance (OR: 2.49; 95% CI: 1.63-3.79), goal setting (behavior; OR: 2.12; 95% CI: 1.57-2.87), and information about consequences (OR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.40-3.05) showed statistically significant effects to engage clinicians with ACP. CONCLUSION: Certain BCTs seem to improve clinicians' practice with ACP in heart failure and merit consideration for implementation into routine clinical practice.

13.
Brain ; 143(10): 2998-3012, 2020 Oct 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32875311

RESUMO

Vascular comorbidities have a deleterious impact on multiple sclerosis clinical outcomes but it is unclear whether this is mediated by an excess of extracranial vascular disease (i.e. atherosclerosis) and/or of cerebral small vessel disease or worse multiple sclerosis pathology. To address these questions, a study using a unique post-mortem cohort wherein whole body autopsy reports and brain tissue were available for interrogation was established. Whole body autopsy reports were used to develop a global score of systemic vascular disease that included aorta and coronary artery atheroma, cardiac hypertensive disease, myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke. The score was applied to 85 multiple sclerosis cases (46 females, age range 39 to 84 years, median 62.0 years) and 68 control cases. Post-mortem brain material from a subset of the multiple sclerosis (n = 42; age range 39-84 years, median 61.5 years) and control (n = 39) cases was selected for detailed neuropathological study. For each case, formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue from the frontal and occipital white matter, basal ganglia and pons was used to obtain a global cerebral small vessel disease score that captured the presence and/or severity of arteriolosclerosis, periarteriolar space dilatation, haemosiderin leakage, microinfarcts, and microbleeds. The extent of multiple sclerosis-related pathology (focal demyelination and inflammation) was characterized in the multiple sclerosis cases. Regression models were used to investigate the influence of disease status on systemic vascular disease and cerebral small vessel disease scores and, in the multiple sclerosis group, the relationship between multiple sclerosis-related pathology and both vascular scores. We show that: (i) systemic cardiovascular burden, and specifically atherosclerosis, is lower and cerebral small vessel disease is higher in multiple sclerosis cases that die at younger ages compared with control subjects; (ii) the association between systemic vascular disease and cerebral small vessel disease is stronger in patients with multiple sclerosis compared with control subjects; and (iii) periarteriolar changes, including periarteriolar space dilatation, haemosiderin deposition and inflammation, are key features of multiple sclerosis pathology outside the classic demyelinating lesion. Our data argue against a common primary trigger for atherosclerosis and multiple sclerosis but suggest that an excess burden of cerebral small vessel disease in multiple sclerosis may explain the link between vascular comorbidity and accelerated irreversibility disability.

14.
Diagn Progn Res ; 4: 13, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32864468

RESUMO

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic and common condition with a rising prevalence, especially in the elderly. Morbidity and mortality rates in people with HF are similar to those with common forms of cancer. Clinical guidelines highlight the need for more detailed prognostic information to optimise treatment and care planning for people with HF. Besides proven prognostic biomarkers and numerous newly developed prognostic models for HF clinical outcomes, no risk stratification models have been adequately established. Through a number of linked systematic reviews, we aim to assess the quality of the existing models with biomarkers in HF and summarise the evidence they present. Methods: We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science Core Collection, and the prognostic studies database maintained by the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group combining sensitive published search filters, with no language restriction, from 1990 onwards. Independent pairs of reviewers will screen and extract data. Eligible studies will be those developing, validating, or updating any prognostic model with biomarkers for clinical outcomes in adults with any type of HF. Data will be extracted using a piloted form that combines published good practice guidelines for critical appraisal, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment of prediction modelling studies. Missing information on predictive performance measures will be sought by contacting authors or estimated from available information when possible. If sufficient high quality and homogeneous data are available, we will meta-analyse the predictive performance of identified models. Sources of between-study heterogeneity will be explored through meta-regression using pre-defined study-level covariates. Results will be reported narratively if study quality is deemed to be low or if the between-study heterogeneity is high. Sensitivity analyses for risk of bias impact will be performed. Discussion: This project aims to appraise and summarise the methodological conduct and predictive performance of existing clinically homogeneous HF prognostic models in separate systematic reviews.Registration: PROSPERO registration number CRD42019086990.

15.
BMJ Open ; 10(8): e038562, 2020 08 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32843517

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Safety-netting in primary care is the best practice in cancer diagnosis, ensuring that patients are followed up until symptoms are explained or have resolved. Currently, clinicians use haphazard manual solutions. The ubiquitous use of electronic health records provides an opportunity to standardise safety-netting practices.A new electronic safety-netting toolkit has been introduced to provide systematic ways to track and follow up patients. We will evaluate the effectiveness of this toolkit, which is embedded in a major primary care clinical system in England:Egerton Medical Information System(EMIS)-Web. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a stepped-wedge cluster RCT in 60 general practices within the RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network. Groups of 10 practices will be randomised into the active phase at 2-monthly intervals over 12 months. All practices will be activated for at least 2 months. The primary outcome is the primary care interval measured as days between the first recorded symptom of cancer (within the year prior to diagnosis) and the subsequent referral to secondary care. Other outcomes include referrals rates and rates of direct access cancer investigation.Analysis of the clustered stepped-wedge design will model associations using a fixed effect for intervention condition of the cluster at each time step, a fixed effect for time and other covariates, and then include a random effect for practice and for patient to account for correlation between observations from the same centre and from the same participant. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the North West-Greater Manchester West National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (REC Reference 19/NW/0692). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and conferences, and sent to participating practices. They will be published on the University of Oxford Nuffield Department of Primary Care and RCGP RSC websites. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15913081; Pre-results.

16.
Nature ; 584(7821): 430-436, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32640463

RESUMO

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly affected mortality worldwide1. There is unprecedented urgency to understand who is most at risk of severe outcomes, and this requires new approaches for the timely analysis of large datasets. Working on behalf of NHS England, we created OpenSAFELY-a secure health analytics platform that covers 40% of all patients in England and holds patient data within the existing data centre of a major vendor of primary care electronic health records. Here we used OpenSAFELY to examine factors associated with COVID-19-related death. Primary care records of 17,278,392 adults were pseudonymously linked to 10,926 COVID-19-related deaths. COVID-19-related death was associated with: being male (hazard ratio (HR) 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.53-1.65)); greater age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); diabetes; severe asthma; and various other medical conditions. Compared with people of white ethnicity, Black and South Asian people were at higher risk, even after adjustment for other factors (HR 1.48 (1.29-1.69) and 1.45 (1.32-1.58), respectively). We have quantified a range of clinical factors associated with COVID-19-related death in one of the largest cohort studies on this topic so far. More patient records are rapidly being added to OpenSAFELY, we will update and extend our results regularly.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/patogenicidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Africano/estatística & dados numéricos , Distribuição por Idade , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Envelhecimento , Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Asiático/estatística & dados numéricos , Asma/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Medição de Risco , Caracteres Sexuais , Fumar/epidemiologia , Medicina Estatal , Adulto Jovem
17.
J Clin Epidemiol ; 127: 87-95, 2020 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32707072

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify key features to be addressed in the reporting of deprescribing trials and to elaborate and explain CONSORT items in this regard. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: As a first step in a multistage process and based on a systematic review of deprescribing trials, we elaborated variation in design, intervention, and reporting of the included trials of the review. We identified items that were missed or insufficiently described, using the CONSORT and TIDieR checklists. The resulting list of items, which we considered relevant to be reported in deprescribing trials, were discussed in a single-round Delphi exercise and subsequently in a full-day face-to-face meeting with an international panel of 14 experts. We agreed on CONSORT items for further elaboration with regard to design and reporting of deprescribing trials. RESULTS: We identified seven CONSORT items on trial design, participants, intervention, outcomes, flowchart, and harms, where the investigators of deprescribing trials should take into consideration specific aspects, such as whether or not to use placebo or how to inform participants. CONCLUSION: This article presents an elaboration to the CONSORT statement for the reporting of deprescribing trials. It may also support investigators in motivated design choices.

18.
Cochrane Database Syst Rev ; 5: CD008268, 2020 05 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32356360

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Sore throat is a common condition associated with a high rate of antibiotic prescriptions, despite limited evidence for the effectiveness of antibiotics. Corticosteroids may improve symptoms of sore throat by reducing inflammation of the upper respiratory tract. This review is an update to our review published in 2012. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical benefit and safety of corticosteroids in reducing the symptoms of sore throat in adults and children. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL (Issue 4, 2019), MEDLINE (1966 to 14 May 2019), Embase (1974 to 14 May 2019), the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE, 2002 to 2015), and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (inception to 2015). We also searched the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared steroids to either placebo or standard care in adults and children (aged over three years) with sore throat. We excluded studies of hospitalised participants, those with infectious mononucleosis (glandular fever), sore throat following tonsillectomy or intubation, or peritonsillar abscess. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. MAIN RESULTS: We included one new RCT in this update, for a total of nine trials involving 1319 participants (369 children and 950 adults). In eight trials, participants in both corticosteroid and placebo groups received antibiotics; one trial offered delayed prescription of antibiotics based on clinical assessment. Only two trials reported funding sources (government and a university foundation). In addition to any effect of antibiotics and analgesia, corticosteroids increased the likelihood of complete resolution of pain at 24 hours by 2.40 times (risk ratio (RR) 2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29 to 4.47; P = 0.006; I² = 67%; high-certainty evidence) and at 48 hours by 1.5 times (RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.76; P < 0.001; I² = 0%; high-certainty evidence). Five people need to be treated to prevent one person continuing to experience pain at 24 hours. Corticosteroids also reduced the mean time to onset of pain relief and the mean time to complete resolution of pain by 6 and 11.6 hours, respectively, although significant heterogeneity was present (moderate-certainty evidence). At 24 hours, pain (assessed by visual analogue scales) was reduced by an additional 10.6% by corticosteroids (moderate-certainty evidence). No differences were reported in recurrence/relapse rates, days missed from work or school, or adverse events for participants taking corticosteroids compared to placebo. However, the reporting of adverse events was poor, and only two trials included children or reported days missed from work or school. The included studies were assessed as moderate quality evidence, but the small number of included studies has the potential to increase the uncertainty, particularly in terms of applying these results to children. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Oral or intramuscular corticosteroids, in addition to antibiotics, moderately increased the likelihood of both resolution and improvement of pain in participants with sore throat. Given the limited benefit, further research into the harms and benefits of short courses of steroids is needed to permit informed decision-making.


Assuntos
Corticosteroides/administração & dosagem , Antibacterianos/administração & dosagem , Faringite/tratamento farmacológico , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Quimioterapia Combinada/métodos , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Fatores de Tempo , Tonsilite/tratamento farmacológico , Resultado do Tratamento , Adulto Jovem
19.
J Infect ; 81(2): 221-230, 2020 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32445725

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Reactive arthritis, irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), Guillain-Barré syndrome, ulcerative colitis, and Crohn's disease may be sequelae of Campylobacter or non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) infections. Proton pump inhibitors (PPI) and antibiotics may increase the risk of gastrointestinal infections (GII); however, their impact on sequelae onset is unclear. We investigated the incidence of sequelae, their association with antibiotics and PPI prescription, and assessed the economic impact on the NHS. METHODS: Data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink for patients consulting their GP for Campylobacter or NTS infection, during 2000-2015, were linked to hospital, mortality, and Index of Multiple Deprivation data. We estimated the incidence of sequelae and deaths in the 12 months following GII. We conducted logistic regression modelling for the adjusted association with prescriptions. We compared differences in resource use and costs pre- and post-infection amongst patients with and without sequelae. FINDINGS: Of 20,471 patients with GII (Campylobacter 17,838), less than 2% (347) developed sequelae, with IBS (268) most common. Amongst Campylobacter patients, those with prescriptions for PPI within 12 months before and cephalosporins within 7-days before/after infection had elevated risk of IBS (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.1, 1.5-2.9) and (aOR 3.6, 1.1-11.7) respectively. Campylobacter sequelae led to ∼ £1.3 million, (£750,000, £1.7 million) in additional annual NHS expenditure. INTERPRETATION: Sequelae of Campylobacter and NTS infections are rare but associated with increased NHS costs. Prior prescription of PPI may be a modifiable risk factor. Incidence of sequelae, healthcare resource use and costs are essential parameters for future burden of disease studies.

20.
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