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1.
Int J Epidemiol ; 2019 Oct 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31605532

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Previous gene-environment interaction studies of breast cancer risk have provided sparse evidence of interactions. Using the largest available dataset to date, we performed a comprehensive assessment of potential effect modification of 205 common susceptibility variants by 13 established breast cancer risk factors, including replication of previously reported interactions. METHODS: Analyses were performed using 28 176 cases and 32 209 controls genotyped with iCOGS array and 44 109 cases and 48 145 controls genotyped using OncoArray from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Gene-environment interactions were assessed using unconditional logistic regression and likelihood ratio tests for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen-receptor (ER) status. Bayesian false discovery probability was used to assess the noteworthiness of the meta-analysed array-specific interactions. RESULTS: Noteworthy evidence of interaction at ≤1% prior probability was observed for three single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-risk factor pairs. SNP rs4442975 was associated with a greater reduction of risk of ER-positive breast cancer [odds ratio (OR)int = 0.85 (0.78-0.93), Pint = 2.8 x 10-4] and overall breast cancer [ORint = 0.85 (0.78-0.92), Pint = 7.4 x 10-5) in current users of estrogen-progesterone therapy compared with non-users. This finding was supported by replication using OncoArray data of the previously reported interaction between rs13387042 (r2 = 0.93 with rs4442975) and current estrogen-progesterone therapy for overall disease (Pint = 0.004). The two other interactions suggested stronger associations between SNP rs6596100 and ER-negative breast cancer with increasing parity and younger age at first birth. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our study does not suggest strong effect modification of common breast cancer susceptibility variants by established risk factors.

2.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 13548, 2019 Sep 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31537833

RESUMO

While limited observational evidence suggests that cancer survivors have a decreased risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD), and vice versa, it is not clear whether this relationship is causal. Using a Mendelian randomization approach that provides evidence of causality, we found that genetically predicted lung cancer (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84-0.99, p = 0.019), leukemia (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.96-0.995, p = 0.012), and breast cancer (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.89-0.99, p = 0.028) were associated with 9.0%, 2.4%, and 5.9% lower odds of AD, respectively, per 1-unit higher log odds of cancer. When genetic predictors of all cancers were pooled, cancer was associated with 2.5% lower odds of AD (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.96-0.988, p = 0.00027) per 1-unit higher log odds of cancer. Finally, genetically predicted smoking-related cancers showed a more robust inverse association with AD than non-smoking related cancers (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98, p = 0.0026, vs. OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.995, p = 0.0091).

3.
Int J Cancer ; 2019 Jul 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31265136

RESUMO

A small number of circulating proteins have been reported to be associated with breast cancer risk, with inconsistent results. Herein, we attempted to identify novel protein biomarkers for breast cancer via the integration of genomics and proteomics data. In the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), with 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European descendants, we evaluated the associations of the genetically predicted concentrations of >1,400 circulating proteins with breast cancer risk. We used data from a large-scale protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) analysis as our study instrument. Summary statistics for these pQTL variants related to breast cancer risk were obtained from the BCAC and used to estimate odds ratios (OR) for each protein using the inverse-variance weighted method. We identified 56 proteins significantly associated with breast cancer risk by instrumental analysis (false discovery rate <0.05). Of these, the concentrations of 32 were influenced by variants close to a breast cancer susceptibility locus (ABO, 9q34.2). Many of these proteins, such as insulin receptor, insulin-like growth factor receptor 1 and other membrane receptors (OR: 0.82-1.18, p values: 6.96 × 10-4 -3.28 × 10-8 ), are linked to insulin resistance and estrogen receptor signaling pathways. Proteins identified at other loci include those involved in biological processes such as alcohol and lipid metabolism, proteolysis, apoptosis, immune regulation and cell motility and proliferation. Consistent associations were observed for 22 proteins in the UK Biobank data (p < 0.05). The study identifies potential novel biomarkers for breast cancer, but further investigation is needed to replicate our findings.

4.
J Natl Cancer Inst ; 2019 May 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31095341

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: 10-20% of patients develop long-term toxicity following radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Identification of common genetic variants associated with susceptibility to radiotoxicity might improve risk prediction and inform functional mechanistic studies. METHODS: We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis of six genome-wide association studies (n = 3,871) in men with European ancestry who underwent radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Radiotoxicities (increased urinary frequency, decreased urinary stream, hematuria, rectal bleeding) were graded prospectively. Grouped relative risk models tested associations with ∼6 million genotyped/imputed variants (time to first ≥grade 2 toxicity event). Variants with two-sided Pmeta<5x10-8 were considered statistically significant. Bayesian false discovery probability provided an additional measure of confidence. Statistically significant variants were evaluated in three Japanese cohorts (n = 962). All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Meta-analysis of the European ancestry cohorts identified three genomic signals: single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs17055178 with rectal bleeding (Pmeta=6.2x10-10), rs10969913 with decreased urinary stream (Pmeta=2.9x10-10) and rs11122573 with hematuria (Pmeta=1.8x10-8). Fine scale mapping of these three regions identified another independent signal (rs147121532) associated with hematuria (Pconditional=4.7x10-6). Credible causal variants at these four signals lie in gene-regulatory regions, some modulating expression of nearby genes. Previously identified variants showed consistent associations (rs17599026 with increased urinary frequency, rs7720298 with decreased urinary stream, rs1801516 with overall toxicity) in new cohorts. rs10969913 and rs17599026 had similar effects in the photon-treated Japanese cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study increases understanding of the architecture of common genetic variants affecting radiotoxicity, points to novel radio-pathogenic mechanisms, and develops risk models for testing in clinical studies. Further multi-national radiogenomics studies in larger cohorts are worthwhile.

5.
Mol Genet Genomic Med ; 7(6): e707, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31066241

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies consistently indicate that alcohol consumption is an independent risk factor for female breast cancer (BC). Although the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) polymorphism (rs671: Glu>Lys) has a strong effect on acetaldehyde metabolism, the association of rs671 with BC risk and its interaction with alcohol intake have not been fully elucidated. We conducted a pooled analysis of 14 case-control studies, with individual data on Asian ancestry women participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. METHODS: We included 12,595 invasive BC cases and 12,884 controls for the analysis of rs671 and BC risk, and 2,849 invasive BC cases and 3,680 controls for the analysis of the gene-environment interaction between rs671 and alcohol intake for BC risk. The pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) associated with rs671 and its interaction with alcohol intake for BC risk were estimated using logistic regression models. RESULTS: The Lys/Lys genotype of rs671 was associated with increased BC risk (OR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.03-1.30, p = 0.014). According to tumor characteristics, the Lys/Lys genotype was associated with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive BC (OR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.05-1.36, p = 0.008), progesterone receptor (PR)-positive BC (OR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.03-1.36, p = 0.015), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative BC (OR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.05-1.48, p = 0.012). No evidence of a gene-environment interaction was observed between rs671 and alcohol intake (p = 0.537). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the Lys/Lys genotype confers susceptibility to BC risk among women of Asian ancestry, particularly for ER-positive, PR-positive, and HER2-negative tumor types.

6.
J Natl Cancer Inst ; 2019 May 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31143935

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation plays a critical role in breast cancer development. Previous studies have identified DNA methylation marks in white blood cells as promising biomarkers for breast cancer. However, these studies were limited by low statistical power and potential biases. Utilizing a new methodology, we investigated DNA methylation marks for their associations with breast cancer risk. METHODS: Statistical models were built to predict levels of DNA methylation marks using genetic data and DNA methylation data from HumanMethylation450 BeadChip from the Framingham Heart Study (N=1,595). The prediction models were validated using data from the Women's Health Initiative (N=883). We applied these models to genome-wide association study (GWAS) data of 122,977 breast cancer cases and 105,974 controls to evaluate if the genetically predicted DNA methylation levels at CpGs are associated with breast cancer risk. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Of the 62,938 CpG sites (CpGs) investigated, statistically significant associations with breast cancer risk were observed for 450 CpGs at a Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P<7.94 × 10-7, including 45 CpGs residing in 18 genomic regions which have not previously been associated with breast cancer risk. Of the remaining 405 CpGs located within 500 kilobase flaking regions of 70 GWAS-identified breast cancer risk variants, the associations for 11 CpGs were independent of GWAS-identified variants. Integrative analyses of genetic, DNA methylation and gene expression data found that 38 CpGs may affect breast cancer risk through regulating expression of 21 genes. CONCLUSION: Our new methodology can identify novel DNA methylation biomarkers for breast cancer risk and can be applied to other diseases.

7.
Nat Genet ; 51(5): 815-823, 2019 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31043753

RESUMO

We sought to identify susceptibility genes for high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) by performing a transcriptome-wide association study of gene expression and splice junction usage in HGSOC-relevant tissue types (N = 2,169) and the largest genome-wide association study available for HGSOC (N = 13,037 cases and 40,941 controls). We identified 25 transcriptome-wide association study significant genes, 7 at the junction level only, including LRRC46 at 19q21.32, (P = 1 × 10-9), CHMP4C at 8q21 (P = 2 × 10-11) and a PRC1 junction at 15q26 (P = 7 × 10-9). In vitro assays for CHMP4C showed that the associated variant induces allele-specific exon inclusion (P = 0.0024). Functional screens in HGSOC cell lines found evidence of essentiality for three of the new genes we identified: HAUS6, KANSL1 and PRC1, with the latter comparable to MYC. Our study implicates at least one target gene for 6 out of 13 distinct genome-wide association study regions, identifying 23 new candidate susceptibility genes for HGSOC.


Assuntos
Carcinoma Epitelial do Ovário/genética , Neoplasias Ovarianas/genética , Processamento Alternativo , Proteínas de Ciclo Celular/genética , Linhagem Celular Tumoral , Bases de Dados Genéticas , Complexos Endossomais de Distribuição Requeridos para Transporte/genética , Feminino , Regulação Neoplásica da Expressão Gênica , Técnicas de Inativação de Genes , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Modelos Genéticos , Proteínas Nucleares/genética , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Transcriptoma
9.
Gynecol Oncol ; 153(2): 343-355, 2019 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30898391

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have focused largely on populations of European ancestry. We aimed to identify common germline variants associated with EOC risk in Asian women. METHODS: Genotyping was performed as part of the OncoArray project. Samples with >60% Asian ancestry were included in the analysis. Genotyping was performed on 533,631 SNPs in 3238 Asian subjects diagnosed with invasive or borderline EOC and 4083 unaffected controls. After imputation, genotypes were available for 11,595,112 SNPs to identify associations. RESULTS: At chromosome 6p25.2, SNP rs7748275 was associated with risk of serous EOC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.34, P = 8.7 × 10-9) and high-grade serous EOC (HGSOC) (OR = 1.34, P = 4.3 × 10-9). SNP rs6902488 at 6p25.2 (r2 = 0.97 with rs7748275) lies in an active enhancer and is predicted to impact binding of STAT3, P300 and ELF1. We identified additional risk loci with low Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP) scores, indicating they are likely to be true risk associations (BFDP <10%). At chromosome 20q11.22, rs74272064 was associated with HGSOC risk (OR = 1.27, P = 9.0 × 10-8). Overall EOC risk was associated with rs10260419 at chromosome 7p21.3 (OR = 1.33, P = 1.2 × 10-7) and rs74917072 at chromosome 2q37.3 (OR = 1.25, P = 4.7 × 10-7). At 2q37.3, expression quantitative trait locus analysis in 404 HGSOC tissues identified ESPNL as a putative candidate susceptibility gene (P = 1.2 × 10-7). CONCLUSION: While some risk loci were shared between East Asian and European populations, others were population-specific, indicating that the landscape of EOC risk in Asian women has both shared and unique features compared to women of European ancestry.


Assuntos
Carcinoma Epitelial do Ovário/genética , Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Asiático/genética , Sequência de Bases , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Feminino , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Locos de Características Quantitativas
10.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 34(6): 591-600, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30737679

RESUMO

Observational studies suggest that higher birth weight (BW) is associated with increased risk of breast cancer in adult life. We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to assess whether this association is causal. Sixty independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) known to be associated at P < 5 × 10-8 with BW were used to construct (1) a 41-SNP instrumental variable (IV) for univariable MR after removing SNPs with pleiotropic associations with other breast cancer risk factors and (2) a 49-SNP IV for multivariable MR after filtering SNPs for data availability. BW predicted by the 41-SNP IV was not associated with overall breast cancer risk in inverse-variance weighted (IVW) univariable MR analysis of genetic association data from 122,977 breast cancer cases and 105,974 controls (odds ratio = 0.86 per 500 g higher BW; 95% confidence interval 0.73-1.01). Sensitivity analyses using four alternative methods and three alternative IVs, including an IV with 59 of the 60 BW-associated SNPs, yielded similar results. Multivariable MR adjusting for the effects of the 49-SNP IV on birth length, adult height, adult body mass index, age at menarche, and age at menopause using IVW and MR-Egger methods provided estimates consistent with univariable analyses. Results were also similar when all analyses were repeated after restricting to estrogen receptor-positive or -negative breast cancer cases. Point estimates of the odds ratios from most analyses performed indicated an inverse relationship between genetically-predicted BW and breast cancer, but we are unable to rule out an association between the non-genetically-determined component of BW and breast cancer. Thus, genetically-predicted higher BW was not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer in adult life in our MR study.


Assuntos
Peso ao Nascer , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Peso ao Nascer/genética , Feminino , Humanos , Análise da Randomização Mendeliana , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Medição de Risco
11.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev ; 28(4): 822-825, 2019 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30642840

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Genes regulated by breast cancer risk alleles identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may harbor rare coding risk alleles. METHODS: We sequenced the coding regions for 38 genes within 500 kb of 38 lead GWAS SNPs in 13,538 breast cancer cases and 5,518 controls. RESULTS: Truncating variants in these genes were rare, and were not associated with breast cancer risk. Burden testing of rare missense variants highlighted 5 genes with some suggestion of an association with breast cancer, although none met the multiple testing thresholds: MKL1, FTO, NEK10, MDM4, and COX11. Six common alleles in COX11, MAP3K1 (two), and NEK10 (three) were associated at the P < 0.0001 significance level, but these likely reflect linkage disequilibrium with causal regulatory variants. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence that rare coding variants in these genes confer substantial breast cancer risks. However, more modest effect sizes could not be ruled out. IMPACT: We tested the hypothesis that rare variants in 38 genes near breast cancer GWAS loci may mediate risk. These variants do not appear to play a major role in breast cancer heritability.

13.
Int J Cancer ; 2018 Nov 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30499236

RESUMO

As a follow-up to genome-wide association analysis of common variants associated with ovarian carcinoma (cancer), this study considers seven well-known ovarian cancer risk factors and their interactions with 28 genome-wide significant common genetic variants. The interaction analyses were based on data from 9,971 ovarian cancer cases and 15,566 controls from 17 case-control studies. Likelihood ratio and Wald tests for multiplicative interaction and for relative excess risk due to additive interaction were used. The top multiplicative interaction was noted between oral contraceptive pill (OCP) use (ever vs never) and rs13255292 (P-value = 3.48 x 10-4 ). Among women with the TT genotype for this variant, the odds ratio for OCP use was 0.53 (95% CI=0.46-0.60) compared to 0.71 (95%CI=0.66-0.77) for women with the CC genotype. When stratified by duration of OCP use, women with 1-5 years of OCP use exhibited differential protective benefit across genotypes. However, no interaction on either the multiplicative or additive scale was found to be statistically significant after multiple testing correction. The results suggest that OCP use may offer increased benefit for women who are carriers of the T allele in rs13255292. On the other hand, for women carrying the C allele in this variant, longer (5+ years) use of OCP may reduce the impact of carrying the risk allele of this SNP. Replication of this finding is needed. The study presents a comprehensive analytic framework for conducting gene-environment analysis in ovarian cancer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

14.
Int J Epidemiol ; 2018 Nov 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30476131

RESUMO

Background: Chronic inflammation is a risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). Circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) is also moderately associated with CRC risk. However, observational studies are susceptible to unmeasured confounding or reverse causality. Using genetic risk variants as instrumental variables, we investigated the causal relationship between genetically elevated CRP concentration and CRC risk, using a Mendelian randomization approach. Methods: Individual-level data from 30 480 CRC cases and 22 844 controls from 33 participating studies in three international consortia were used: the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study (CORECT) and the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR). As instrumental variables, we included 19 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with CRP concentration. The SNP-CRC associations were estimated using a logistic regression model adjusted for age, sex, principal components and genotyping phases. An inverse-variance weighted method was applied to estimate the causal effect of CRP on CRC risk. Results: Among the 19 CRP-associated SNPs, rs1260326 and rs6734238 were significantly associated with CRC risk (P = 7.5 × 10-4, and P = 0.003, respectively). A genetically predicted one-unit increase in the log-transformed CRP concentrations (mg/l) was not associated with increased risk of CRC [odds ratio (OR) = 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.97, 1.12; P = 0.256). No evidence of association was observed in subgroup analyses stratified by other risk factors. Conclusions: In spite of adequate statistical power to detect moderate association, we found genetically elevated CRP concentration was not associated with increased risk of CRC among individuals of European ancestry. Our findings suggested that circulating CRP is unlikely to be a causal factor in CRC development.

15.
Cancer Res ; 2018 Nov 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30487138

RESUMO

Genome-wide association studies have identified 40 ovarian cancer risk loci. However, the mechanisms underlying these associations remain elusive. In this study, we conducted a two-pronged approach to identify candidate causal SNPs and assess underlying biological mechanisms at chromosome 9p22.2, the first and most statistically significant associated locus for ovarian cancer susceptibility. Three transcriptional regulatory elements with allele-specific effects and a scaffold/matrix attachment region were characterized and through physical DNA interactions BNC2 was established as the most likely target gene. We determined the consensus binding sequence for BNC2 in vitro, verified its enrichment in BNC2 ChIP-Seq regions and validated a set of its downstream target genes. Fine-mapping by dense regional genotyping in over 15,000 ovarian cancer cases and 30,000 controls identified SNPs in the scaffold/matrix attachment region as among the most likely causal variants. This study reveals a comprehensive regulatory landscape at 9p22.2 and proposes a likely mechanism of susceptibility to ovarian cancer.

16.
Int J Epidemiol ; 2018 Oct 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30277539

RESUMO

Background: In addition to the established association between general obesity and breast cancer risk, central obesity and circulating fasting insulin and glucose have been linked to the development of this common malignancy. Findings from previous studies, however, have been inconsistent, and the nature of the associations is unclear. Methods: We conducted Mendelian randomization analyses to evaluate the association of breast cancer risk, using genetic instruments, with fasting insulin, fasting glucose, 2-h glucose, body mass index (BMI) and BMI-adjusted waist-hip-ratio (WHRadj BMI). We first confirmed the association of these instruments with type 2 diabetes risk in a large diabetes genome-wide association study consortium. We then investigated their associations with breast cancer risk using individual-level data obtained from 98 842 cases and 83 464 controls of European descent in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Results: All sets of instruments were associated with risk of type 2 diabetes. Associations with breast cancer risk were found for genetically predicted fasting insulin [odds ratio (OR) = 1.71 per standard deviation (SD) increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.26-2.31, p = 5.09 × 10-4], 2-h glucose (OR = 1.80 per SD increase, 95% CI = 1.3 0-2.49, p = 4.02 × 10-4), BMI (OR = 0.70 per 5-unit increase, 95% CI = 0.65-0.76, p = 5.05 × 10-19) and WHRadj BMI (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.79-0.91, p = 9.22 × 10-6). Stratified analyses showed that genetically predicted fasting insulin was more closely related to risk of estrogen-receptor [ER]-positive cancer, whereas the associations with instruments of 2-h glucose, BMI and WHRadj BMI were consistent regardless of age, menopausal status, estrogen receptor status and family history of breast cancer. Conclusions: We confirmed the previously reported inverse association of genetically predicted BMI with breast cancer risk, and showed a positive association of genetically predicted fasting insulin and 2-h glucose and an inverse association of WHRadj BMI with breast cancer risk. Our study suggests that genetically determined obesity and glucose/insulin-related traits have an important role in the aetiology of breast cancer.

17.
Blood ; 132(19): 2040-2052, 2018 Nov 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30194254

RESUMO

To further our understanding of inherited susceptibility to Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), we performed a meta-analysis of 7 genome-wide association studies totaling 5325 HL cases and 22 423 control patients. We identify 5 new HL risk loci at 6p21.31 (rs649775; P = 2.11 × 10-10), 6q23.3 (rs1002658; P = 2.97 × 10-8), 11q23.1 (rs7111520; P = 1.44 × 10-11), 16p11.2 (rs6565176; P = 4.00 × 10-8), and 20q13.12 (rs2425752; P = 2.01 × 10-8). Integration of gene expression, histone modification, and in situ promoter capture Hi-C data at the 5 new and 13 known risk loci implicates dysfunction of the germinal center reaction, disrupted T-cell differentiation and function, and constitutive NF-κB activation as mechanisms of predisposition. These data provide further insights into the genetic susceptibility and biology of HL.

18.
JAMA Oncol ; 4(11): 1504-1510, 2018 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29978189

RESUMO

Importance: The age-based or "one-size-fits-all" breast screening approach does not take into account the individual variation in risk. Mammography screening reduces death from breast cancer at the cost of overdiagnosis. Identifying risk-stratified screening strategies with a more favorable ratio of overdiagnoses to breast cancer deaths prevented would improve the quality of life of women and save resources. Objective: To assess the benefit-to-harm ratio and the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified breast screening programs compared with a standard age-based screening program and no screening. Design, Setting, and Population: A life-table model was created of a hypothetical cohort of 364 500 women in the United Kingdom, aged 50 years, with follow-up to age 85 years, using (1) findings of the Independent UK Panel on Breast Cancer Screening and (2) risk distribution based on polygenic risk profile. The analysis was undertaken from the National Health Service perspective. Interventions: The modeled interventions were (1) no screening, (2) age-based screening (mammography screening every 3 years from age 50 to 69 years), and (3) risk-stratified screening (a proportion of women aged 50 years with a risk score greater than a threshold risk were offered screening every 3 years until age 69 years) considering each percentile of the risk distribution. All analyses took place between July 2016 and September 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Overdiagnoses, breast cancer deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, costs in British pounds, and net monetary benefit (NMB). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess uncertainty around parameter estimates. Future costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per year. Results: The risk-stratified analysis of this life-table model included a hypothetical cohort of 364 500 women followed up from age 50 to 85 years. As the risk threshold was lowered, the incremental cost of the program increased linearly, compared with no screening, with no additional QALYs gained below 35th percentile risk threshold. Of the 3 screening scenarios, the risk-stratified scenario with risk threshold at the 70th percentile had the highest NMB, at a willingness to pay of £20 000 (US $26 800) per QALY gained, with a 72% probability of being cost-effective. Compared with age-based screening, risk-stratified screening at the 32nd percentile vs 70th percentile risk threshold would cost £20 066 (US $26 888) vs £537 985 (US $720 900) less, would have 26.7% vs 71.4% fewer overdiagnoses, and would avert 2.9% vs 9.6% fewer breast cancer deaths, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Not offering breast cancer screening to women at lower risk could improve the cost-effectiveness of the screening program, reduce overdiagnosis, and maintain the benefits of screening.

20.
J Med Genet ; 55(8): 546-554, 2018 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29730597

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have identified >30 common SNPs associated with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). We evaluated the combined effects of EOC susceptibility SNPs on predicting EOC risk in an independent prospective cohort study. METHODS: We genotyped ovarian cancer susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a nested case-control study (750 cases and 1428 controls) from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening trial. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were constructed and their associations with EOC risk were evaluated using logistic regression. The absolute risk of developing ovarian cancer by PRS percentiles was calculated. RESULTS: The association between serous PRS and serous EOC (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.58, p=1.3×10-11) was stronger than the association between overall PRS and overall EOC risk (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.45, p=5.4×10-10). Women in the top fifth percentile of the PRS had a 3.4-fold increased EOC risk compared with women in the bottom 5% of the PRS, with the absolute EOC risk by age 80 being 2.9% and 0.9%, respectively, for the two groups of women in the population. CONCLUSION: PRSs can be used to predict future risk of developing ovarian cancer for women in the general population. Incorporation of PRSs into risk prediction models for EOC could inform clinical decision-making and health management.

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