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1.
Water Res ; 196: 117025, 2021 May 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33765499

RESUMO

Phosphorus (P) loadings to the Great Lakes have been regulated for decades, but re-eutrophication and seasonal hypoxia have recently been increasingly reported. It is of paramount importance to better understand the fate, transformation, and biogeochemical cycling processes of different P species across the river-lake interface. We report here results on chemical speciation of P in the seasonally hypoxic Fox River-Green Bay system and variations in sources and partitioning of P species along the aquatic continuum. During midsummer when productivity is generally high, phosphate and dissolved organic P (DOP) were the major species in river water while particulate-organic-P predominated in open bay waters, showing a dynamic change in the chemical speciation of P along the river-bay transect with active transformations between inorganic and organic P and between colloidal and particulate phases. Colloidal organic P (COP, >1 kDa) comprised 33‒65% of the bulk DOP, while colloidal inorganic P was generally insignificant and undetectable especially in open bay water. Sources of COP changed from mainly allochthonous in the Fox River, having mostly smaller sized colloids (1-3 kDa) and a lower organic carbon to phosphorus (C/P) ratio, to predominantly autochthonous in open bay waters with larger sized colloids (>10 kDa) and a higher organic C/P ratio. The observed high apparent distribution coefficients (Kd) of P between dissolved and particulate phases and high-abundant autochthonous colloidal and particulate organic P in the hypereutrophic environment suggest that, in addition to phosphate, colloidal/particulate organic P may play a critical role in the biogeochemical cycling of P and the development of seasonal hypoxia.


Assuntos
Estuários , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Monitoramento Ambiental , Eutrofização , Fósforo/análise , Rios , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise
2.
J Environ Manage ; 280: 111710, 2021 Feb 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33308931

RESUMO

Reducing harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie, situated between the United States and Canada, requires implementing best management practices to decrease nutrient loading from upstream sources. Bi-national water quality targets have been set for total and dissolved phosphorus loads, with the ultimate goal of reaching these targets in 9-out-of-10 years. Row crop agriculture dominates the land use in the Western Lake Erie Basin thus requiring efforts to mitigate nutrient loads from agricultural systems. To determine the types and extent of agricultural management practices needed to reach the water quality goals, we used five independently developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool models to evaluate the effects of 18 management scenarios over a 10-year period on nutrient export. Guidance from a stakeholder group was provided throughout the project, and resulted in improved data, development of realistic scenarios, and expanded outreach. Subsurface placement of phosphorus fertilizers, cover crops, riparian buffers, and wetlands were among the most effective management options. But, only in one realistic scenario did a majority (3/5) of the models predict that the total phosphorus loading target would be met in 9-out-of-10 years. Further, the dissolved phosphorus loading target was predicted to meet the 9-out-of-10-year goal by only one model and only in three scenarios. In all scenarios evaluated, the 9-out-of-10-year goal was not met based on the average of model predictions. Ensemble modeling revealed general agreement about the effects of several practices although some scenarios resulted in a wide range of uncertainty. Overall, our results demonstrate that there are multiple pathways to approach the established water quality goals, but greater adoption rates of practices than those tested here will likely be needed to attain the management targets.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental , Lagos , Agricultura , Canadá , Eutrofização , Fósforo/análise , Qualidade da Água
3.
Sci Total Environ ; 747: 141112, 2020 Dec 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32791405

RESUMO

How anticipated climate change might affect long-term outcomes of present-day agricultural conservation practices remains a key uncertainty that could benefit water quality and biodiversity conservation planning. To explore this issue, we forecasted how the stream fish communities in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) would respond to increasing amounts of agricultural conservation practice (ACP) implementation under two IPCC future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5: moderate reductions; RCP8.5: business-as-usual conditions) during 2020-2065. We used output from 19 General Circulation Models to drive linked agricultural land use (APEX), watershed hydrology (SWAT), and stream fish distribution (boosted regression tree) models, subsequently analyzing how projected changes in habitat would influence fish community composition and functional trait diversity. Our models predicted both positive and negative effects of climate change and ACP implementation on WLEB stream fishes. For most species, climate and ACPs influenced species in the same direction, with climate effects outweighing those of ACP implementation. Functional trait analysis helped clarify the varied responses among species, indicating that more extreme climate change would reduce available habitat for large-bodied, cool-water species with equilibrium life-histories, many of which also are of importance to recreational fishing (e.g., northern pike, smallmouth bass). By contrast, available habitat for warm-water, benthic species with more periodic or opportunistic life-histories (e.g., northern hogsucker, greater redhorse, greenside darter) was predicted to increase. Further, ACP implementation was projected to hasten these shifts, suggesting that efforts to improve water quality could come with costs to other ecosystem services (e.g., recreational fishing opportunities). Collectively, our findings demonstrate the need to consider biological outcomes when developing strategies to mitigate water quality impairment and highlight the value of physical-biological modeling approaches to agricultural and biological conservation planning in a changing climate.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Rios , Agricultura , Animais , Mudança Climática , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Hidrologia
4.
Sci Total Environ ; 569-570: 1265-1281, 2016 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27387796

RESUMO

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation.

5.
Environ Sci Technol ; 50(13): 6991-7000, 2016 07 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27243625

RESUMO

Despite progress in the implementation of conservation practices, related improvements in water quality have been challenging to measure in larger river systems. In this paper we quantify these downstream effects by applying the empirical U.S. Geological Survey water-quality model SPARROW to investigate whether spatial differences in conservation intensity were statistically correlated with variations in nutrient loads. In contrast to other forms of water quality data analysis, the application of SPARROW controls for confounding factors such as hydrologic variability, multiple sources and environmental processes. A measure of conservation intensity was derived from the USDA-CEAP regional assessment of the Upper Mississippi River and used as an explanatory variable in a model of the Upper Midwest. The spatial pattern of conservation intensity was negatively correlated (p = 0.003) with the total nitrogen loads in streams in the basin. Total phosphorus loads were weakly negatively correlated with conservation (p = 0.25). Regional nitrogen reductions were estimated to range from 5 to 34% and phosphorus reductions from 1 to 10% in major river basins of the Upper Mississippi region. The statistical associations between conservation and nutrient loads are consistent with hydrological and biogeochemical processes such as denitrification. The results provide empirical evidence at the regional scale that conservation practices have had a larger statistically detectable effect on nitrogen than on phosphorus loadings in streams and rivers of the Upper Mississippi Basin.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Rios , Monitoramento Ambiental , Mississippi , Nitrogênio , Fósforo
6.
J Environ Qual ; 42(5): 1422-40, 2013 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24216420

RESUMO

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loading from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) has been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. To describe where and from what sources those loads originate, SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were constructed for the MARB using geospatial datasets for 2002, including inputs from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and calibration sites throughout the MARB. Previous studies found that highest N and P yields were from the north-central part of the MARB (Corn Belt). Based on the MARB SPARROW models, highest N yields were still from the Corn Belt but centered over Iowa and Indiana, and highest P yields were widely distributed throughout the center of the MARB. Similar to that found in other studies, agricultural inputs were found to be the largest N and P sources throughout most of the MARB: farm fertilizers were the largest N source, whereas farm fertilizers, manure, and urban inputs were dominant P sources. The MARB models enable individual N and P sources to be defined at scales ranging from SPARROW catchments (∼50 km) to the entire area of the MARB. Inputs of P from WWTPs and urban areas were more important than found in most other studies. Information from this study will help to reduce nutrient loading from the MARB by providing managers with a description of where each of the sources of N and P are most important, thus providing a basis for prioritizing management actions and ultimately reducing the extent of Gulf hypoxia.


Assuntos
Rios , Pardais , Agricultura , Animais , Monitoramento Ambiental , Mississippi , Nitrogênio , Fósforo
7.
J Am Water Resour Assoc ; 47(5): 933-949, 2011 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22457576

RESUMO

Stream-loading information was compiled from federal, state, and local agencies, and selected universities as part of an effort to develop regional SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to help describe the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout much of the United States. After screening, 2,739 sites, sampled by 73 agencies, were identified as having suitable data for calculating long-term mean annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These sites had a wide range in nutrient concentrations, loads, and yields, and environmental characteristics in their basins. An analysis of the accuracy in load estimates relative to site attributes indicated that accuracy in loads improve with increases in the number of observations, the proportion of uncensored data, and the variability in flow on observation days, whereas accuracy declines with increases in the root mean square error of the water-quality model, the flow-bias ratio, the number of days between samples, the variability in daily streamflow for the prediction period, and if the load estimate has been detrended. Based on compiled data, all areas of the country had recent declines in the number of sites with sufficient water-quality data to compute accurate annual loads and support regional modeling analyses. These declines were caused by decreases in the number of sites being sampled and data not being entered in readily accessible databases.

8.
J Am Water Resour Assoc ; 47(5): 1011-1033, 2011 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22457580

RESUMO

Nutrient input to the Laurentian Great Lakes continues to cause problems with eutrophication. To reduce the extent and severity of these problems, target nutrient loads were established and Total Maximum Daily Loads are being developed for many tributaries. Without detailed loading information it is difficult to determine if the targets are being met and how to prioritize rehabilitation efforts. To help address these issues, SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed for estimating loads and sources of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) from the United States (U.S.) portion of the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi, Ohio, and Red River Basins. Results indicated that recent U.S. loadings to Lakes Michigan and Ontario are similar to those in the 1980s, whereas loadings to Lakes Superior, Huron, and Erie decreased. Highest loads were from tributaries with the largest watersheds, whereas highest yields were from areas with intense agriculture and large point sources of nutrients. Tributaries were ranked based on their relative loads and yields to each lake. Input from agricultural areas was a significant source of nutrients, contributing ∼33-44% of the P and ∼33-58% of the N, except for areas around Superior with little agriculture. Point sources were also significant, contributing ∼14-44% of the P and 13-34% of the N. Watersheds around Lake Erie contributed nutrients at the highest rate (similar to intensively farmed areas in the Midwest) because they have the largest nutrient inputs and highest delivery ratio.

9.
Environ Manage ; 43(1): 69-83, 2009 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18521658

RESUMO

Riparian buffers have the potential to improve stream water quality in agricultural landscapes. This potential may vary in response to landscape characteristics such as soils, topography, land use, and human activities, including legacies of historical land management. We built a predictive model to estimate the sediment and phosphorus load reduction that should be achievable following the implementation of riparian buffers; then we estimated load reduction potential for a set of 1598 watersheds (average 54 km(2)) in Wisconsin. Our results indicate that land cover is generally the most important driver of constituent loads in Wisconsin streams, but its influence varies among pollutants and according to the scale at which it is measured. Physiographic (drainage density) variation also influenced sediment and phosphorus loads. The effect of historical land use on present-day channel erosion and variation in soil texture are the most important sources of phosphorus and sediment that riparian buffers cannot attenuate. However, in most watersheds, a large proportion (approximately 70%) of these pollutants can be eliminated from streams with buffers. Cumulative frequency distributions of load reduction potential indicate that targeting pollution reduction in the highest 10% of Wisconsin watersheds would reduce total phosphorus and sediment loads in the entire state by approximately 20%. These results support our approach of geographically targeting nonpoint source pollution reduction at multiple scales, including the watershed scale.


Assuntos
Meio Ambiente , Sedimentos Geológicos/análise , Modelos Teóricos , Fósforo/análise , Rios , Análise de Regressão , Wisconsin
10.
J Am Water Resour Assoc ; 45(2): 534-549, 2009 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22457567

RESUMO

Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying "high priority" areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient-reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.

11.
Environ Manage ; 40(4): 691-708, 2007 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17638041

RESUMO

We sampled 41 sites on 34 nonwadeable rivers that represent the types of rivers in Wisconsin, and the kinds and intensities of nutrient and other anthropogenic stressors upon each river type. Sites covered much of United States Environmental Protection Agency national nutrient ecoregions VII--Mostly Glaciated Dairy Region, and VIII--Nutrient Poor, Largely Glaciated upper Midwest. Fish, macroinvertebrates, and three categories of environmental variables including nutrients, other water chemistry, and watershed features were collected using standard protocols. We summarized fish assemblages by index of biotic integrity (IBI) and its 10 component measures, and macroinvertebrates by 2 organic pollution tolerance and 12 proportional richness measures. All biotic and environmental variables represented a wide range of conditions, with biotic measures ranging from poor to excellent status, despite nutrient concentrations being consistently higher than reference concentrations reported for the regions. Regression tree analyses of nutrients on a suite of biotic measures identified breakpoints in total phosphorus (approximately 0.06 mg/l) and total nitrogen (approximately 0.64 mg/l) concentrations at which biotic assemblages were consistently impaired. Redundancy analyses (RDA) were used to identify the most important variables within each of the three environmental variable categories, which were then used to determine the relative influence of each variable category on the biota. Nutrient measures, suspended chlorophyll a, water clarity, and watershed land cover type (forest or row-crop agriculture) were the most important variables and they explained significant amounts of variation within the macroinvertebrate (R(2) = 60.6%) and fish (R(2) = 43.6%) assemblages. The environmental variables selected in the macroinvertebrate model were correlated to such an extent that partial RDA analyses could not attribute variation explained to individual environmental categories, assigning 89% of the explained variation to interactions among the categories. In contrast, partial RDA attributed much of the explained variation to the nutrient (25%) and other water chemistry (38%) categories for the fish model. Our analyses suggest that it would be beneficial to develop criteria based upon a suite of biotic and nutrient variables simultaneously to deem waters as not meeting their designated uses.


Assuntos
Peixes , Invertebrados , Nitrogênio/análise , Fósforo/análise , Rios , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise , Animais , Wisconsin
12.
Environ Manage ; 39(2): 194-212, 2007 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17122998

RESUMO

We sampled 240 wadeable streams across Wisconsin for different forms of phosphorus and nitrogen, and assemblages of macroinvertebrates and fish to (1) examine how macroinvertebrate and fish measures correlated with the nutrients; (2) quantify relationships between key biological measures and nutrient forms to identify potential threshold levels of nutrients to support nutrient criteria development; and (3) evaluate the importance of nutrients in influencing biological assemblages relative to other physicochemical factors at different spatial scales. Twenty-three of the 35 fish and 18 of the 26 macroinvertebrate measures significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with at least one nutrient measure. Percentages of carnivorous, intolerant, and omnivorous fishes, index of biotic integrity, and salmonid abundance were fish measures correlated with the most nutrient measures and had the highest correlation coefficients. Percentages of Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera individuals and taxa, Hilsenhoff biotic index, and mean tolerance value were macroinvertebrate measures that most strongly correlated with the most nutrient measures. Selected biological measures showed clear trends toward degradation as concentrations of phosphorus and nitrogen increased, and some measures showed clear thresholds where biological measures changed drastically with small changes in nutrient concentrations. Our selected environmental factors explained 54% of the variation in the fish assemblages. Of this explained variance, 46% was attributed to catchment and instream habitat, 15% to nutrients, 3% to other water quality measures, and 36% to the interactions among all the environmental variables. Selected environmental factors explained 53% of the variation in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Of this explained variance, 42% was attributed to catchment and instream habitat, 22% to nutrients, 5% to other water quality measures, and 32% to the interactions among all the environmental variables.


Assuntos
Peixes , Alimentos , Água Doce , Invertebrados , Animais , Especificidade da Espécie , Wisconsin
13.
Environ Manage ; 37(2): 209-29, 2006 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16328674

RESUMO

Various approaches are used to subdivide large areas into regions containing streams that have similar reference or background water quality and that respond similarly to different factors. For many applications, such as establishing reference conditions, it is preferable to use physical characteristics that are not affected by human activities to delineate these regions. However, most approaches, such as ecoregion classifications, rely on land use to delineate regions or have difficulties compensating for the effects of land use. Land use not only directly affects water quality, but it is often correlated with the factors used to define the regions. In this article, we describe modifications to SPARTA (spatial regression-tree analysis), a relatively new approach applied to water-quality and environmental characteristic data to delineate zones with similar factors affecting water quality. In this modified approach, land-use-adjusted (residualized) water quality and environmental characteristics are computed for each site. Regression-tree analysis is applied to the residualized data to determine the most statistically important environmental characteristics describing the distribution of a specific water-quality constituent. Geographic information for small basins throughout the study area is then used to subdivide the area into relatively homogeneous environmental water-quality zones. For each zone, commonly used approaches are subsequently used to define its reference water quality and how its water quality responds to changes in land use. SPARTA is used to delineate zones of similar reference concentrations of total phosphorus and suspended sediment throughout the upper Midwestern part of the United States.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Rios , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise , Sedimentos Geológicos , Meio-Oeste dos Estados Unidos , Fósforo/análise , Análise de Regressão
14.
Environ Manage ; 31(5): 581-602, 2003 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12719890

RESUMO

Various approaches have been used to classify large geographical areas into smaller regions of similar water quality or extrapolate water-quality data from a few streams to other unmonitored streams. A combination of some of the strengths of existing techniques is used to develop a new approach for these purposes. In this new approach, referred to here as SPARTA (SPAtial Regression-Tree Analysis), environmental characteristics for each monitored stream are first quantified using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and then regression-tree analysis is used to determine which characteristics are most statistically important in describing the distribution of a specific water-quality constituent. GIS coverages of only the most statistically significant environmental characteristics are then used to subdivide the area of interest into relatively homogeneous environmental water-quality zones. Results from the regression-tree analysis not only define the most important environmental characteristics, but also describe how to subdivide the coverage of the specific characteristic (for example, areas with <26% or >or=26% soil clay content). The resulting regionalization scheme is customized for each water-quality constituent based on the environmental characteristics most statistically related to that constituent. SPARTA was used to delineate areas of similar phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment concentrations (by including land-use characteristics) and areas of similar potential water quality (by excluding land-use characteristics). The SPARTA approach reduced the variability in water-quality concentrations (phosphorus, total nitrogen, Kjeldahl nitrogen, and suspended sediment) within similarly classified zones from that obtained using the US Environmental Protection Agency's nutrient ecoregions.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Poluentes da Água/análise , Poluentes da Água/classificação , Agricultura , Fósforo/análise , Valores de Referência , Análise de Regressão
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