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1.
Arq Bras Cardiol ; 102(3): 226-36, 2014 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês, Português | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24714793

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Available predictive models for acute coronary syndromes (ACS) have limitations as they have been elaborated some years ago or limitations with applicability. OBJECTIVES: To develop scores for predicting adverse events in 30 days and 6 months in ST-segment elevation and non-ST-segment elevation ACS patients admitted to private tertiary hospital. METHODS: Prospective cohort of ACS patients admitted between August, 2009 and June, 2012. Our primary composite outcome for both the 30-day and 6-month models was death from any cause, myocardial infarction or re-infarction, cerebrovascular accident (CVA), cardiac arrest and major bleeding. Predicting variables were selected for clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic and therapeutic data. The final model was obtained with multiple logistic regression and submitted to internal validation with bootstrap analysis. RESULTS: We considered 760 patients for the development sample, of which 132 had ST-segment elevation ACS and 628 non-ST-segment elevation ACS. The mean age was 63.2 ± 11.7 years, and 583 were men (76.7%). The final model to predict 30-day events is comprised by five independent variables: age ≥ 70 years, history of cancer, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40%, troponin I > 12.4 ng /ml and chemical thrombolysis. In the internal validation, the model showed good discrimination with C-statistic of 0.71. The predictors in the 6-month event final model are: history of cancer, LVEF < 40%, chemical thrombolysis, troponin I >14.3 ng/ml, serum creatinine>1.2 mg/dl, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and hemoglobin < 13.5 g/dl. In the internal validation, the model had good performance with C-statistic of 0.69. CONCLUSION: We have developed easy to apply scores for predicting 30-day and 6-month adverse events in patients with ST-elevation and non-ST-elevation ACS.


Assuntos
Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/diagnóstico , Medição de Risco/métodos , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/fisiopatologia , Adulto , Idoso , Creatinina/sangue , Feminino , Hospitais Privados/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Prognóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Curva ROC , Valores de Referência , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Fatores de Risco , Volume Sistólico/fisiologia , Centros de Atenção Terciária , Fatores de Tempo , Troponina I/sangue
2.
Arq. bras. cardiol ; 102(3): 226-236, 03/2014. tab
Artigo em Português | LILACS | ID: lil-705721

RESUMO

Fundamento: Os modelos prognósticos disponíveis para Síndrome Coronariana Aguda (SCA) podem ter limitações de performance, por terem sido elaborados há vários anos, ou problemas de aplicabilidade. Objetivos: Elaborar escores para predição de eventos desfavoráveis em 30 dias e 6 meses, em pacientes com SCA, com ou sem Supradesnivelamento de ST (SST), atendida em hospital privado terciário. Métodos: Coorte prospectiva de pacientes consecutivos com SCA admitidos entre agosto/2009 a junho/2012. O desfecho primário composto foi a ocorrência de óbito, infarto ou reinfarto, Acidente Vascular Cerebral (AVC), parada cardiorrespiratória e sangramento maior. As variáveis preditoras foram selecionadas de dados clínicos, laboratoriais, eletrocardiográficos e da terapêutica. O modelo final foi obtido por meio de regressão logística e submetido a validação interna, utilizando-se bootstraping. Resultados: Incluímos 760 pacientes, 132 com SCA com SST e 628 sem SST. A idade média foi 63,2 ± 11,7 anos, sendo 583 homens (76,7%). O modelo final para eventos em 30 dias contém cinco preditores: idade ≥ 70 anos, antecedente de neoplasia, Fração de Ejeção do Ventrículo Esquerdo (FEVE) < 40%, troponinaI > 12,4 ng/mL e trombólise. Na validação interna, o modelo mostrou ter boa performance com área sob a curva de 0,71.Os preditores do modelo para 6 meses são: antecedente de neoplasia, FEVE < 40%, trombólise, troponina I > 14,3 ng/mL, creatinina > 1,2 mg/dL, antecedente de doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica e hemoglobina < 13,5 g/dL. Na validação interna, o modelo apresentou boa performance com área sob a curva de 0,69. Conclusões: Desenvolvemos escores de fácil utilização e boa performance ...


Background: Available predictive models for acute coronary syndromes (ACS) have limitations as they have been elaborated some years ago or limitations with applicability. Objectives: To develop scores for predicting adverse events in 30 days and 6 months in ST-segment elevation and non-ST-segment elevation ACS patients admitted to private tertiary hospital. Methods: Prospective cohort of ACS patients admitted between August, 2009 and June, 2012. Our primary composite outcome for both the 30-day and 6-month models was death from any cause, myocardial infarction or re-infarction, cerebrovascular accident (CVA), cardiac arrest and major bleeding. Predicting variables were selected for clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic and therapeutic data. The final model was obtained with multiple logistic regression and submitted to internal validation with bootstrap analysis. Results: We considered 760 patients for the development sample, of which 132 had ST-segment elevation ACS and 628 non-ST-segment elevation ACS. The mean age was 63.2 ± 11.7 years, and 583 were men (76.7%). The final model to predict 30-day events is comprised by five independent variables: age ≥ 70 years, history of cancer, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40%, troponin I > 12.4 ng /ml and chemical thrombolysis. In the internal validation, the model showed good discrimination with C-statistic of 0.71. The predictors in the 6-month event final model are: history of cancer, LVEF < 40%, chemical thrombolysis, troponin I >14.3 ng/ml, serum creatinine>1.2 mg/dl, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and hemoglobin < 13.5 g/dl. In the internal validation, the model had good performance with C-statistic of 0.69. Conclusion: We have developed easy to apply scores for predicting 30-day and 6-month adverse events in patients with ST-elevation and non-ST-elevation ACS. .


Assuntos
Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/diagnóstico , Medição de Risco/métodos , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/fisiopatologia , Creatinina/sangue , Hospitais Privados/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise Multivariada , Prognóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Valores de Referência , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Fatores de Risco , Curva ROC , Volume Sistólico/fisiologia , Centros de Atenção Terciária , Fatores de Tempo , Troponina I/sangue
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