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1.
Soc Sci Med ; 287: 114388, 2021 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34520938

RESUMO

Taxes and subsidies on foods and nutrients have the potential to promote healthier diets and thereby reduce mortality. In this study, we examine the effects of such policy instruments on Swedish public health. Specifically, we estimate the effects of food and nutrient taxes and subsidies on mortality averted and postponed in Sweden, using both demand system estimations and simulation models. We evaluate different Value Added Tax (VAT) reforms. The VAT is raised on food products that are particularly rich in saturated fat or salt and lowered on fruit and vegetables. Our models predict that an increase in the current VAT of 12% on food, to 25% VAT on products rich in saturated fat plus a 0% VAT on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 1100 deaths (95% CI: -832; -1363) averted or postponed in a year in Sweden, while the combination of a 34.4% VAT on products rich in saturated fat and a -10.4% VAT (i.e. a subsidy) on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 2100 (95% CI: -1572; -2311) deaths averted or postponed corresponding to a 4.8% reduction in diet-related annual death. Most of the deaths averted or delayed from this reform would be deaths from coronary heart disease (-1,148, 95% CI: -728; -1586), followed by stroke -641 (95% CI: -408; -887) and diet-related cancer deaths (-288, 95% CI: -11; -435). We find that health-related food taxes and subsidies improve dietary habits as well as reduce the mortality of the Swedish population. However, the effect of these reforms on different socioeconomic classes and which reforms provide the best value for money, i.e., cost-effectiveness of these reforms needs to be established first before implementation.

2.
Nutrients ; 13(8)2021 Aug 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34444892

RESUMO

A nutrient profiling model (NPM) was developed in 2005 in the UK to regulate the marketing of foods to children. It was revised in 2018, but the new version has not been finalised. The Eatwell Guide (EWG) is the UK's official food-based dietary guidelines. The aim of this study was to evaluate the agreement between the 2005 and 2018 versions of the NPM and the EWG. Using recent National Diet and Nutrition Surveys, we estimated the healthiness of individual diets based on an EWG dietary score and a NPM dietary index. We then compared the percentage of agreement and Cohen's kappa for each combination of the EWG score and NPM index across the range of observed values for the 2005 and 2018 versions. A total of 3028 individual diets were assessed. Individuals with a higher (i.e., healthier) EWG score consumed a diet with, on average, a lower (i.e., healthier) NPM index both for the 2005 and 2018 versions. Overall, there was good agreement between the EWG score and the NPM dietary index at assessing the healthiness of representative diets of the UK population, when a low cut-off for the NPM dietary index was used, irrespective of the version. This suggests that dietary advice to the public is broadly aligned with NPM-based food policies and vice-versa.


Assuntos
Dieta Saudável/estatística & dados numéricos , Indústria Alimentícia/legislação & jurisprudência , Fidelidade a Diretrizes/estatística & dados numéricos , Marketing/legislação & jurisprudência , Política Nutricional/legislação & jurisprudência , Criança , Dieta Saudável/normas , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Reino Unido
3.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0254833, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34347807

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The provision and over-consumption of foods high in energy, saturated fat, free sugars or salt are important risk factors for poor diet and ill-health. In the UK, policies seek to drive improvement through voluntary reformulation of single nutrients in key food groups. There has been little consideration of the overall progress by individual companies. This study assesses recent changes in the nutrient profile of brands and products sold by the top 10 food and beverage companies in the UK. METHODS: The FSA/Ofcom nutrient profile model was applied to the nutrient composition data for all products manufactured by the top 10 food and beverage companies and weighted by volume sales. The mean nutrient profiling score, on a scale of 1-100 with thresholds for healthy products being 62 for foods and 68 for drinks, was used to rank companies and food categories between 2015 and 2018, and to calculate the proportion of individual products and sales that are considered by the UK Government to be healthy. RESULTS: Between 2015 and 2018 there was little change in the sales-weighted nutrient profiling score of the top 10 companies (49 to 51; p = 0.28) or the proportion of products classified as healthy (46% to 48%; p = 0.23). Of the top five brands sold by each of the ten companies, only six brands among ten companies improved their nutrient profiling score by 20% or more. The proportion of total volume sales classified as healthy increased from 44% to 51% (p = 0.07) driven by an increase in the volume sales of bottled water, low/no calorie carbonates and juices, but after removing soft drinks, the proportion of foods classified as healthy decreased from 7% to 6% (p = 33). CONCLUSIONS: The UK voluntary reformulation policies, setting targets for reductions in calories, sugar and salt, do not appear to have led to significant changes in the nutritional quality of foods, though there has been progress in soft drinks where the soft drink industry levy also applies. Further policy action is needed to incentivise companies to make more substantive changes in product composition to support consumers to achieve a healthier diet.

4.
BMJ ; 374: n1840, 2021 08 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34404631

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To determine if the characteristics of behavioural weight loss programmes influence the rate of change in weight after the end of the programme. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Trial registries, 11 electronic databases, and forward citation searching (from database inception; latest search December 2019). Randomised trials of behavioural weight loss programmes in adults with overweight or obesity, reporting outcomes at ≥12 months, including at the end of the programme and after the end of the programme. REVIEW METHODS: Studies were screened by two independent reviewers with discrepancies resolved by discussion. 5% of the studies identified in the searches met the inclusion criteria. One reviewer extracted the data and a second reviewer checked the data. Risk of bias was assessed with Cochrane's risk of bias tool (version 1). The rate of change in weight was calculated (kg/month; converted to kg/year for interpretability) after the end of the programme in the intervention versus control groups by a mixed model with a random intercept. Associations between the rate of change in weight and prespecified variables were tested. RESULTS: Data were analysed from 249 trials (n=59 081) with a mean length of follow-up of two years (longest 30 years). 56% of studies (n=140) had an unclear risk of bias, 21% (n=52) a low risk, and 23% (n=57) a high risk of bias. Regain in weight was faster in the intervention versus the no intervention control groups (0.12-0.32 kg/year) but the difference between groups was maintained for at least five years. Each kilogram of weight lost at the end of the programme was associated with faster regain in weight at a rate of 0.13-0.19 kg/year. Financial incentives for weight loss were associated with faster regain in weight at a rate of 1-1.5 kg/year. Compared with programmes with no meal replacements, interventions involving partial meal replacements were associated with faster regain in weight but not after adjustment for weight loss during the programme. Access to the programme outside of the study was associated with slower regain in weight. Programmes where the intensity of the interaction reduced gradually were also associated with slower regain in weight in the multivariable analysis, although the point estimate suggested that the association was small. Other characteristics did not explain the heterogeneity in regain in weight. CONCLUSION: Faster regain in weight after weight loss was associated with greater initial weight loss, but greater initial weight loss was still associated with reduced weight for at least five years after the end of the programme, after which data were limited. Continued availability of the programme to participants outside of the study predicted a slower regain in weight, and provision of financial incentives predicted faster regain in weight; no other clear associations were found. STUDY REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018105744.


Assuntos
Terapia Comportamental/métodos , Trajetória do Peso do Corpo , Obesidade/terapia , Sobrepeso/terapia , Programas de Redução de Peso/métodos , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Obesidade/fisiopatologia , Sobrepeso/fisiopatologia , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Resultado do Tratamento , Perda de Peso
5.
PLoS Med ; 18(7): e1003715, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34264943

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Reducing meat consumption could bring health and environmental benefits, but there is little research to date on effective interventions to achieve this. A non-randomised controlled intervention study was used to evaluate whether prominent positioning of meat-free products in the meat aisle was associated with a change in weekly mean sales of meat and meat-free products. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Weekly sales data were obtained from 108 stores: 20 intervention stores that moved a selection of 26 meat-free products into a newly created meat-free bay within the meat aisle and 88 matched control stores. The primary outcome analysis used a hierarchical negative binomial model to compare changes in weekly sales (units) of meat products sold in intervention versus control stores during the main intervention period (Phase I: February 2019 to April 2019). Interrupted time series analysis was also used to evaluate the effects of the Phase I intervention. Moreover, 8 of the 20 stores enhanced the intervention from August 2019 onwards (Phase II intervention) by adding a second bay of meat-free products into the meat aisle, which was evaluated following the same analytical methods. During the Phase I intervention, sales of meat products (units/store/week) decreased in intervention (approximately -6%) and control stores (-5%) without significant differences (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.01 [95% CI 0.95-1.07]. Sales of meat-free products increased significantly more in the intervention (+31%) compared to the control stores (+6%; IRR 1.43 [95% CI 1.30-1.57]), mostly due to increased sales of meat-free burgers, mince, and sausages. Consistent results were observed in interrupted time series analyses where the effect of the Phase II intervention was significant in intervention versus control stores. CONCLUSIONS: Prominent positioning of meat-free products into the meat aisle in a supermarket was not effective in reducing sales of meat products, but successfully increased sales of meat-free alternatives in the longer term. A preregistered protocol (https://osf.io/qmz3a/) was completed and fully available before data analysis.

6.
PLoS One ; 16(6): e0252072, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34077469

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a leading risk for poor health outcomes in England. We examined best- and worst-case scenarios for the future trajectory of the obesity epidemic. METHODS: Taking the last 27 years of Health Survey for England data, we determined both position and shape of the adult body mass index (BMI) distribution and projected these parameters 20 years forward in time. For the best-case scenario, we fitted linear models, allowing for a quadratic relationship between the outcome variable and time, to reflect a potential reversal in upwards trends. For the worst-case scenario, we fitted non-linear models that applied an exponential function to reflect a potential flattening of trends over time. Best-fitting models were identified using Monte Carlo cross-validation on 1991-2014 data, and predictions of population prevalence across five BMI categories were then validated using 2015-17 data. RESULTS: Both linear and non-linear models showed a close fit to observed data (mean absolute error <2%). In the best-case scenario, the proportion of the population at increased risk (BMI≥25kg/m2) is predicted to fall from 66% in 2017 to 53% (95% confidence interval: 41% to 64%) in 2035. In the worst-case scenario, this proportion is likely to remain relatively stable overall- 64% (37% to 90%) in 2035 -but with an increasing proportion of the population at highest risk (BMI≥35kg/m2). CONCLUSIONS: While obesity prediction depends on chosen modelling methods, even under optimistic assumptions it is likely that the majority of the English population will still be at increased risk of disease due to their weight until at least 2035, without greater allocation of resources to effective interventions.

7.
PLoS Med ; 18(5): e1003647, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34003863

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Consumption of free sugars in the UK greatly exceeds dietary recommendations. Public Health England (PHE) has set voluntary targets for industry to reduce the sales-weighted mean sugar content of key food categories contributing to sugar intake by 5% by 2018 and 20% by 2020. The aim of this study was to assess changes in the sales-weighted mean sugar content and total volume sales of sugar in selected food categories among UK companies between 2015 and 2018. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used sales data from Euromonitor, which estimates total annual retail sales of packaged foods, for 5 categories-biscuits and cereal bars, breakfast cereals, chocolate confectionery, sugar confectionery, and yoghurts-for 4 consecutive years (2015-2018). This analysis includes 353 brands (groups of products with the same name) sold by 99 different companies. These data were linked with nutrient composition data collected online from supermarket websites over 2015-2018 by Edge by Ascential. The main outcome measures were sales volume, sales-weighted mean sugar content, and total volume of sugar sold by category and company. Our results show that between 2015 and 2018 the sales-weighted mean sugar content of all included foods fell by 5.2% (95% CI -9.4%, -1.4%), from 28.7 g/100 g (95% CI 27.2, 30.4) to 27.2 g/100 g (95% CI 25.8, 28.4). The greatest change seen was in yoghurts (-17.0% [95% CI -26.8%, -7.1%]) and breakfast cereals (-13.3% [95% CI -19.2%, -7.4%]), with only small reductions in sugar confectionery (-2.4% [95% CI -4.2%, -0.6%]) and chocolate confectionery (-1.0% [95% CI -3.1, 1.2]). Our results show that total volume of sugars sold per capita fell from 21.4 g/d (95% CI 20.3, 22.7) to 19.7 g/d (95% CI 18.8, 20.7), a reduction of 7.5% (95% CI -13.1%, -2.8%). Of the 50 companies representing the top 10 companies in each category, 24 met the 5% reduction target set by PHE for 2018. The key limitations of this study are that it does not encompass the whole food market and is limited by its use of brand-level sales data, rather than individual product sales data. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show there has been a small reduction in total volume sales of sugar in the included categories, primarily due to reductions in the sugar content of yoghurts and breakfast cereals. Additional policy measures may be needed to accelerate progress in categories such as sugar confectionery and chocolate confectionery if the 2020 PHE voluntary sugar reduction targets are to be met.


Assuntos
Comércio/estatística & dados numéricos , Açúcares da Dieta/análise , Análise de Alimentos , Inglaterra , Alimentos
8.
BMJ ; 372: n254, 2021 03 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33692200

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in household purchases of drinks and confectionery one year after implementation of the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL). DESIGN: Controlled interrupted time series analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Members of a panel of households reporting their purchasing on a weekly basis to a market research company (average weekly number of participants n=22 183), March 2014 to March 2019. INTERVENTION: A two tiered tax levied on manufacturers of soft drinks, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g sugar/100 mL (high tier) are taxed at £0.24/L and drinks with ≥5 to <8 g sugar/100 mL (low tier) are taxed at £0.18/L. Drinks with <5 g sugar/100 mL (no levy) are not taxed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute and relative differences in the volume of, and amount of sugar in, soft drinks categories, all soft drinks combined, alcohol, and confectionery purchased per household per week one year after implementation of the SDIL compared with trends before the announcement of the SDIL. RESULTS: In March 2019, compared with the counterfactual estimated from pre-announcement trends, purchased volume of drinks in the high levy tier decreased by 155 mL (95% confidence interval 240.5 to 69.5 mL) per household per week, equivalent to 44.3% (95% confidence interval 59.9% to 28.7%), and sugar purchased in these drinks decreased by 18.0 g (95% confidence interval 32.3 to 3.6 g), or 45.9% (68.8% to 22.9%). Purchases of low tier drinks decreased by 177.3 mL (225.3 to 129.3 mL) per household per week, or 85.9% (95.1% to 76.7%), with a 12.5 g (15.4 to 9.5 g) reduction in sugar in these drinks, equivalent to 86.2% (94.2% to 78.1%). Despite no overall change in volume of no levy drinks purchased, there was an increase in sugar purchased of 15.3 g (12.6 to 17.9 g) per household per week, equivalent to 166.4% (94.2% to 238.5%). When all soft drinks were combined, the volume of drinks purchased did not change, but sugar decreased by 29.5 g (55.8 to 3.1 g), or 9.8% (17.9% to 1.8%). Purchases of confectionery and alcoholic drinks did not change. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with trends before the SDIL was announced, one year after implementation, the volume of soft drinks purchased did not change. The amount of sugar in those drinks was 30 g, or 10%, lower per household per week-equivalent to one 250 mL serving of a low tier drink per person per week. The SDIL might benefit public health without harming industry. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN18042742.


Assuntos
Bebidas Gaseificadas/economia , Comportamento do Consumidor/economia , Comportamento do Consumidor/estatística & dados numéricos , Indústria Alimentícia/economia , Política de Saúde/economia , Bebidas Adoçadas com Açúcar/economia , Impostos , Bebidas Gaseificadas/estatística & dados numéricos , Promoção da Saúde/economia , Promoção da Saúde/métodos , Humanos , Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida , Bebidas Adoçadas com Açúcar/estatística & dados numéricos , Reino Unido
9.
Public Health Nutr ; 24(5): 819-825, 2021 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33109282

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Online supermarkets are increasingly used both by consumers and as a source of data on the food environment. We compared product availability, nutritional information, front-of-pack (FOP) labelling, price and price promotions for food and drink products between physical and online supermarkets. DESIGN: For physical stores, we collected data on price, price promotions, FOP nutrition labels and nutrition information from a random sample of food and drinks from six UK supermarkets. For online stores, we used foodDB, a research-ready dataset of over 14 million observations of food and drink products available in online supermarkets. SETTING: Six large supermarket stores located near Oxford, UK. PARTICIPANTS: General sample with 295 food and drink products, plus boost samples for both fruit and vegetables, and alcohol. RESULTS: In the general sample, 85 % (95 % CI 80, 90 %) of products found in physical stores could be matched with an online product. Nutritional information found in the two settings was almost identical, for example, concordance correlation coefficient for energy = 0·995 (95 % CI 0·993, 0·996). The presence of FOP labelling and price promotions differed between the two settings (Cohen's kappa = 0·56 (95 % CI 0·45, 0·66) and 0·40 (95 % CI 0·26, 0·55), respectively). Prices were similar between online and physical supermarkets (concordance correlation coefficient > 0·9 for all samples). CONCLUSIONS: Product availability, nutritional information and prices sourced online for these six retailers are good proxies of those found in physical stores. Price promotions and FOP labelling vary between the two settings. Further research should investigate whether this could impact on health inequalities.

10.
PLoS Med ; 17(11): e1003269, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33180869

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is positively associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The World Health Organization recommends that member states implement effective taxes on SSBs to reduce consumption. The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) is a two-tiered tax, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g of sugar per 100 ml (higher levy tier) are taxed at £0.24 per litre, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g of sugar per 100 ml (lower levy tier) are taxed at £0.18 per litre, and drinks with <5 g sugar per 100 ml (no levy) are not taxed. Milk-based drinks, pure fruit juices, drinks sold as powder, and drinks with >1.2% alcohol by volume are exempt. We aimed to determine if the announcement of the SDIL was associated with anticipatory changes in purchases of soft drinks prior to implementation of the SDIL in April 2018. We explored differences in the volume of and amount of sugar in household purchases of drinks in each levy tier at 2 years post announcement. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used controlled interrupted time series to compare observed changes associated with the announcement of the SDIL to the counterfactual scenario of no announcement. We used data from Kantar Worldpanel, a commercial household purchasing panel with approximately 30,000 British members that includes linked nutritional data on purchases. We conducted separate analyses for drinks liable for the SDIL in the higher, lower, and no-levy tiers controlling with household purchase volumes of toiletries. At 2 years post announcement, there was no difference in volume of or sugar from purchases of higher-levy-tier drinks compared to the counterfactual of no announcement. In contrast, a reversal of the existing upward trend in volume (ml) of and amount of sugar (g) in purchases of lower-levy-tier drinks was seen. These changes led to a -96.1 ml (95% confidence interval [CI] -144.2 to -48.0) reduction in volume and -6.4 g (95% CI -9.8 to -3.1) reduction in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was a reversal of the existing downward trend in the amount of sugar in household purchases of the no-levy drinks but no change in volume purchased. At 2 years post announcement, these changes led to a 6.1 g (95% CI 3.9-8.2) increase in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was no evidence that volume of or amount of sugar in purchases of all drinks combined was different from the counterfactual. This is an observational study, and changes other than the SDIL may have been responsible for the results reported. Purchases consumed outside of the home were not accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: The announcement of the UK SDIL was associated with reductions in volume and sugar purchased in lower-levy-tier drinks before implementation. These were offset by increases in sugar purchased from no-levy drinks. These findings may reflect reformulation of drinks from the lower levy to no-levy tier with removal of some but not all sugar, alongside changes in consumer attitudes and beliefs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN18042742.


Assuntos
Bebidas , Bebidas Gaseificadas , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/etiologia , Bebidas/efeitos adversos , Bebidas/estatística & dados numéricos , Bebidas Gaseificadas/efeitos adversos , Comportamento do Consumidor/estatística & dados numéricos , Características da Família , Humanos , Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida , Política Nutricional/legislação & jurisprudência , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Reino Unido
11.
BMJ ; 370: m2322, 2020 07 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32669369

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the health and environmental implications of adopting national food based dietary guidelines (FBDGs) at a national level and compared with global health and environmental targets. DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: 85 countries. PARTICIPANTS: Population of 85 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A graded coding method was developed and used to extract quantitative recommendations from 85 FBDGs. The health and environmental impacts of these guidelines were assessed by using a comparative risk assessment of deaths from chronic diseases and a set of country specific environmental footprints for greenhouse gas emissions, freshwater use, cropland use, and fertiliser application. For comparison, the impacts of adopting the global dietary recommendations of the World Health Organization and the EAT-Lancet Commission on Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems were also analysed. Each guideline's health and sustainability implications were assessed by modelling its adoption at both the national level and globally, and comparing the impacts to global health and environmental targets, including the Action Agenda on Non-Communicable Diseases, the Paris Climate Agreement, the Aichi biodiversity targets related to land use, and the sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries related to freshwater use and fertiliser application. RESULTS: Adoption of national FBDGs was associated with reductions in premature mortality of 15% on average (95% uncertainty interval 13% to 16%) and mixed changes in environmental resource demand, including a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 13% on average (regional range -34% to 35%). When universally adopted globally, most of the national guidelines (83, 98%) were not compatible with at least one of the global health and environmental targets. About a third of the FBDGs (29, 34%) were incompatible with the agenda on non-communicable diseases, and most (57 to 74, 67% to 87%) were incompatible with the Paris Climate Agreement and other environmental targets. In comparison, adoption of the WHO recommendations was associated with similar health and environmental changes, whereas adoption of the EAT-Lancet recommendations was associated with 34% greater reductions in premature mortality, more than three times greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and general attainment of the global health and environmental targets. As an example, the FBDGs of the UK, US, and China were incompatible with the climate change, land use, freshwater, and nitrogen targets, and adopting guidelines in line with the EAT-Lancet recommendation could increase the number of avoided deaths from 78 000 (74 000 to 81 000) to 104 000 (96 000 to 112 000) in the UK, from 480 000 (445 000 to 516 000) to 585 000 (523 000 to 646 000) in the USA, and from 1 149 000 (1 095 000 to 1 204 000) to 1 802 000 (1 664 000 to 1 941 000) in China. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that national guidelines could be both healthier and more sustainable. Providing clearer advice on limiting in most contexts the consumption of animal source foods, in particular beef and dairy, was found to have the greatest potential for increasing the environmental sustainability of dietary guidelines, whereas increasing the intake of whole grains, fruits and vegetables, nuts and seeds, and legumes, reducing the intake of red and processed meat, and highlighting the importance of attaining balanced energy intake and weight levels were associated with most of the additional health benefits. The health results were based on observational data and assuming a causal relation between dietary risk factors and health outcomes. The certainty of evidence for these relations is mostly graded as moderate in existing meta-analyses.


Assuntos
Dieta/normas , Política Nutricional/legislação & jurisprudência , Desenvolvimento Sustentável/legislação & jurisprudência , Peso Corporal/fisiologia , Doença Crônica/mortalidade , Dieta/tendências , Dieta Saudável/normas , Ingestão de Alimentos/fisiologia , Ingestão de Energia/fisiologia , Saúde Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos de Avaliação como Assunto , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Gases de Efeito Estufa/efeitos adversos , Nível de Saúde , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Doenças não Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças não Transmissíveis/prevenção & controle , Política Nutricional/tendências , Medição de Risco , Desenvolvimento Sustentável/tendências , Organização Mundial da Saúde/organização & administração
12.
PLoS One ; 15(3): e0230506, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32214329

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Food taxes and subsidies are one intervention to address poor diets. Price elasticity (PE) matrices are commonly used to model the change in food purchasing. Usually a PE matrix is generated in one setting then applied to another setting with differing starting consumptions and prices of foods. This violates econometric assumptions resulting in likely mis-estimation of total food consumption. In this paper we demonstrate this problem, canvass possible options for rescaling all consumption after applying a PE matrix, and illustrate the use of a total food expenditure elasticity (TFEe; the expenditure elasticity for all food combined given the policy-induced change in the total price of food). We use case studies of: NZ$2 per 100g saturated fat (SAFA) tax, NZ$0.4 per 100g sugar tax, and a 20% fruit and vegetable (F&V) subsidy. METHODS: We estimated changes in food purchasing using a NZ PE matrix applied conventionally, and then with TFEe adjustment. Impacts were quantified for pre- to post-policy changes in total food expenditure and health adjusted life years (HALYs) for the total NZ population alive in 2011 over the rest of their lifetime using a multistate lifetable model. RESULTS: Two NZ studies gave TFEe's of 0.68 and 0.83, with international estimates ranging from 0.46 to 0.90 (except a UK outlier of 0.04). Without TFEe adjustment, total food expenditure decreased with the tax policies and increased with the F&V subsidy-implausible directions of shift given economic theory and the external TFEe estimates. After TFEe adjustment, HALY gains reduced by a third to a half for the two taxes and reversed from an apparent health loss to a health gain for the F&V subsidy. With TFEe adjustment, HALY gains (in 1000's) were: 1,805 (95% uncertainty interval 1,337 to 2,340) for the SAFA tax; 1,671 (1,220 to 2,269) for the sugar tax; and 953 (453 to 1,308) for the F&V subsidy. CONCLUSIONS: If PE matrices are applied in settings beyond where they were derived, additional scaling is likely required. We suggest that the TFEe is a useful scalar, but we also encourage other researchers to examine this issue and propose alternative options.


Assuntos
Comportamento do Consumidor/economia , Alimentos/economia , Gastos em Saúde , Marketing , Modelos Econômicos , Impostos/economia , Humanos
13.
Public Health Nutr ; 23(8): 1281-1296, 2020 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32209142

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: There are concerns that price promotions encourage unhealthy dietary choices. This review aims to answer the following research questions (RQ1) what is the prevalence of price promotions on foods in high-income settings, and (RQ2) are price promotions more likely to be found on unhealthy foods? DESIGN: Systematic review of articles published in English, in peer-review journals, after 1 January 2000. SETTING: Included studies measured the prevalence of price promotions (i.e. percentage of foods carrying a price promotion out of the total number of foods available to purchase) in retail settings, in upper-mid to high-income countries. PARTICIPANTS: 'Price promotion' was defined as a consumer-facing temporary price reduction or discount available to all customers. The control group/comparator was the equivalent products without promotions. The primary outcome for this review was the prevalence of price promotions, and the secondary outcome was the difference between the proportions of price promotions on healthy and unhealthy foods. RESULTS: Nine studies (239 344 observations) were included for the meta-analysis for RQ1, the prevalence of price promotions ranged from 6 % (95 % CI 2 %, 15 %) for energy-dense nutrient-poor foods to 15 % (95 % CI 9 %, 25 %) for cereals, grains, breads and other starchy carbohydrates. However, the I-squared statistic was 99 % suggesting a very high level of heterogeneity. Four studies were included for the analysis of RQ2, of which two supported the hypothesis that price promotions were more likely to be found on unhealthy foods. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of price promotions is very context specific, and any proposed regulations should be supported by studies conducted within the proposed setting(s).


Assuntos
Comércio/estatística & dados numéricos , Custos e Análise de Custo/estatística & dados numéricos , Abastecimento de Alimentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Alimentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Comportamento do Consumidor , Dieta/economia , Dieta/estatística & dados numéricos , Dieta Saudável/economia , Dieta Saudável/estatística & dados numéricos , Alimentos/economia , Abastecimento de Alimentos/economia , Humanos , Marketing/estatística & dados numéricos , Valor Nutritivo , Prevalência
14.
PLoS Med ; 17(2): e1003025, 2020 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32045418

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dietary sugar, especially in liquid form, increases risk of dental caries, adiposity, and type 2 diabetes. The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) was announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018 and charges manufacturers and importers at £0.24 per litre for drinks with over 8 g sugar per 100 mL (high levy category), £0.18 per litre for drinks with 5 to 8 g sugar per 100 mL (low levy category), and no charge for drinks with less than 5 g sugar per 100 mL (no levy category). Fruit juices and milk-based drinks are exempt. We measured the impact of the SDIL on price, product size, number of soft drinks on the marketplace, and the proportion of drinks over the lower levy threshold of 5 g sugar per 100 mL. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed data on a total of 209,637 observations of soft drinks over 85 time points between September 2015 and February 2019, collected from the websites of the leading supermarkets in the UK. The data set was structured as a repeat cross-sectional study. We used controlled interrupted time series to assess the impact of the SDIL on changes in level and slope for the 4 outcome variables. Equivalent models were run for potentially levy-eligible drink categories ('intervention' drinks) and levy-exempt fruit juices and milk-based drinks ('control' drinks). Observed results were compared with counterfactual scenarios based on extrapolation of pre-SDIL trends. We found that in February 2019, the proportion of intervention drinks over the lower levy sugar threshold had fallen by 33.8 percentage points (95% CI: 33.3-34.4, p < 0.001). The price of intervention drinks in the high levy category had risen by £0.075 (£0.037-0.115, p < 0.001) per litre-a 31% pass through rate-whilst prices of intervention drinks in the low levy category and no levy category had fallen and risen by smaller amounts, respectively. Whilst the product size of branded high levy and low levy drinks barely changed after implementation of the SDIL (-7 mL [-23 to 11 mL] and 16 mL [6-27ml], respectively), there were large changes to product size of own-brand drinks with an increase of 172 mL (133-214 mL) for high levy drinks and a decrease of 141 mL (111-170 mL) for low levy drinks. The number of available drinks that were in the high levy category when the SDIL was announced was reduced by 3 (-6 to 12) by the implementation of the SDIL. Equivalent models for control drinks provided little evidence of impact of the SDIL. These results are not sales weighted, so do not give an account of how sugar consumption from drinks may have changed over the time period. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that the SDIL incentivised many manufacturers to reduce sugar in soft drinks. Some of the cost of the levy to manufacturers and importers was passed on to consumers as higher prices but not always on targeted drinks. These changes could reduce population exposure to liquid sugars and associated health risks.


Assuntos
Sacarose na Dieta , Bebidas Adoçadas com Açúcar/estatística & dados numéricos , Impostos/legislação & jurisprudência , Bebidas Gaseificadas/legislação & jurisprudência , Estudos Controlados Antes e Depois , Custos e Análise de Custo , Humanos , Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida , Tamanho da Porção , Bebidas Adoçadas com Açúcar/legislação & jurisprudência , Reino Unido
15.
PLoS One ; 14(12): e0226975, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31881069

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Traffic-light labelling (TLL) is a promising front-of-pack system to help consumers make informed dietary choices. It has been shown that adopting TLL in Canada, through an optimistic scenario of avoiding, if possible, foods with red traffic lights, could effectively reduce Canadians' intakes of energy, total fat, saturated fat, and sodium by 5%, 13%, 14% and 6%, respectively. However, the potential health impact of adopting TLL has not been determined in the North American context. OBJECTIVE: This study modelled the potential impact of adopting TLL on mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in Canada, due to the previously predicted improved nutrient intakes. METHODS: Investigators used data from adults (n = 19,915) in the 2004 nationally representative Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS)-Cycle 2.2. Nutrient amounts in foods consumed by CCHS respondents were profiled using the 2013 United Kingdom's TLL criteria. Whenever possible, foods assigned at least one red light (non-compliant foods) were replaced with similar, but compliant, foods identified from a Canadian brand-specific food database. Respondents' nutrient intakes were calculated under the original CCHS scenario and the counterfactual TLL scenario, and entered in the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) to estimate the health impact of adopting TLL. The primary outcome was the number of deaths attributable to diet-related NCDs that could be averted or delayed based on the TLL scenario compared with the baseline scenario. RESULTS: PRIME estimated that 11,715 deaths (95% CI 10,500-12,865) per year due to diet-related NCDs, among which 72% are specifically related to cardiovascular diseases, could be prevented if Canadians avoided foods labelled with red traffic lights. The reduction in energy intakes would by itself save 10,490 deaths (9,312-11,592; 90%). CONCLUSIONS: This study, although depicting an idealistic scenario, suggests that TLL (if used to avoid red lights when possible) could be an effective population-wide intervention to improve NCD outcomes in Canada.


Assuntos
Rotulagem de Alimentos , Doenças não Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Adulto , Canadá/epidemiologia , Dieta , Rotulagem de Alimentos/métodos , Avaliação do Impacto na Saúde , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos , Humanos , Doenças não Transmissíveis/prevenção & controle , Adulto Jovem
16.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 19(1): 485, 2019 Jul 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31307442

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases are the leading cause of death in England, and poor diet and physical inactivity are two of the principle behavioural risk factors. In the context of increasingly constrained financial resources, decision makers in England need to be able to compare the potential costs and health outcomes of different public health policies aimed at improving these risk factors in order to know where to invest so that they can maximise population health. This paper describes PRIMEtime CE, a multistate life table cost-effectiveness model that can directly compare interventions affecting multiple disease outcomes. METHODS: The multistate life table model, PRIMEtime Cost Effectiveness (PRIMEtime CE), is developed from the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) and the PRIMEtime model. PRIMEtime CE uses routinely available data to estimate how changing diet and physical activity in England affects morbidity and mortality from heart disease, stroke, diabetes, liver disease, and cancers either directly or via raised blood pressure, cholesterol, and body weight. RESULTS: Model outcomes are change in quality adjusted life years, and change in English National Health Service and social care costs. CONCLUSION: This paper describes PRIMEtime CE and highlights its main strengths and limitations. The model can be used to compare any number of public policies affecting diet and physical activity, allowing decision makers to understand how they can maximise population health with limited financial resources.


Assuntos
Dieta , Exercício Físico , Promoção da Saúde/economia , Tábuas de Vida , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Análise Custo-Benefício , Inglaterra , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Programas Nacionais de Saúde/economia , Política Pública , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Fatores de Risco , Medicina Estatal/economia , Adulto Jovem
17.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 19(1): 489, 2019 Jul 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31307459

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: PRIMEtime CE is a multistate life table model that can directly compare the cost effectiveness of public health interventions affecting diet and physical activity levels, helping to inform decisions about how to spend finite resources. This paper estimates the costs and health outcomes in England of two scenarios: reformulating salt and expanding subsidised access to leisure centres. The results are used to help validate PRIMEtime CE, following the steps outlined in the Assessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic decision models (AdViSHE) tool. METHODS: The PRIMEtime CE model estimates the difference in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and difference in NHS and social care costs of modelled interventions compared with doing nothing. The salt reformulation scenario models how salt consumption would change if food producers met the 2017 UK Food Standards Agency salt reformulation targets. The leisure centre scenario models change in physical activity levels if the Birmingham Be Active scheme (where swimming pools and gym access is free to residents during defined periods) was rolled out across England. The AdViSHE tool was developed by health economic modellers and divides model validation into five parts: validation of the conceptual model, input data validation, validation of computerised model, operational validation, and other validation techniques. PRIMEtime CE is discussed in relation to each part. RESULTS: Salt reformulation was dominant compared with doing nothing, and had a 10-year return on investment of £1.44 (£0.50 to £2.94) for every £1 spent. By contrast, over 10 years the Be Active expansion would cost £727,000 (£514,000 to £1,064,000) per QALY. PRIMEtime CE has good face validity of its conceptual model and has robust input data. Cross-validation produces mixed results and shows the impact of model scope, input parameters, and model structure on cost-per-QALY estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This paper illustrates how PRIMEtime CE can be used to compare the cost-effectiveness of two different public health measures affecting diet and physical activity levels. The AdViSHE tool helps to validate PRIMEtime CE, identifies some of the key drivers of model estimates, and highlights the challenges of externally validating public health economic models against independent data.


Assuntos
Alimentos/normas , Atividades de Lazer/economia , Modelos Econômicos , Saúde Pública/economia , Sódio na Dieta/normas , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Análise Custo-Benefício , Inglaterra , Exercício Físico , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Programas Nacionais de Saúde/economia , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Sódio na Dieta/administração & dosagem , Medicina Estatal/economia , Adulto Jovem
18.
BMJ Open ; 9(6): e026652, 2019 06 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31253615

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Traditional methods for creating food composition tables struggle to cope with the large number of products and the rapid pace of change in the food and drink marketplace. This paper introduces foodDB, a big data approach to the analysis of this marketplace, and presents analyses illustrating its research potential. DESIGN: foodDB has been used to collect data weekly on all foods and drinks available on six major UK supermarket websites since November 2017. As of June 2018, foodDB has 3 193 171 observations of 128 283 distinct food and drink products measured at multiple timepoints. METHODS: Weekly extraction of nutrition and availability data of products was extracted from the webpages of the supermarket websites. This process was automated with a codebase written in Python. RESULTS: Analyses using a single weekly timepoint of 97 368 total products in March 2018 identified 2699 ready meals and pizzas, and showed that lower price ready meals had significantly lower levels of fat, saturates, sugar and salt (p<0.001). Longitudinal analyses of 903 pizzas revealed that 10.8% changed their nutritional formulation over 6 months, and 29.9% were either discontinued or new market entries. CONCLUSIONS: foodDB is a powerful new tool for monitoring the food and drink marketplace, the comprehensive sampling and granularity of collection provides power for revealing analyses of the relationship between nutritional quality and marketing of branded foods, timely observation of product reformulation and other changes to the food marketplace.


Assuntos
Comércio/estatística & dados numéricos , Informação de Saúde ao Consumidor/estatística & dados numéricos , Gorduras na Dieta/análise , Sacarose na Dieta/análise , Fast Foods/análise , Indústria de Processamento de Alimentos , Cloreto de Sódio na Dieta/análise , Coleta de Dados , Bases de Dados Factuais , Fast Foods/economia , Rotulagem de Alimentos , Indústria de Processamento de Alimentos/economia , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Marketing , Refeições , Política Nutricional , Estado Nutricional , Valor Nutritivo , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
19.
BMJ ; 365: l1778, 2019 05 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31122927

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To study trends in stroke mortality rates, event rates, and case fatality, and to explain the extent to which the reduction in stroke mortality rates was influenced by changes in stroke event rates or case fatality. DESIGN: Population based study. SETTING: Person linked routine hospital and mortality data, England. PARTICIPANTS: 795 869 adults aged 20 and older who were admitted to hospital with acute stroke or died from stroke. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Stroke mortality rates, stroke event rates (stroke admission or stroke death without admission), and case fatality within 30 days after stroke. RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2010 stroke mortality rates decreased by 55%, stroke event rates by 20%, and case fatality by 40%. The study population included 358 599 (45%) men and 437 270 (55%) women. Average annual change in mortality rate was -6.0% (95% confidence interval -6.2% to -5.8%) in men and -6.1% (-6.3% to -6.0%) in women, in stroke event rate was -1.3% (-1.4% to -1.2%) in men and -2.1% (-2.2 to -2.0) in women, and in case fatality was -4.7% (-4.9% to -4.5%) in men and -4.4% (-4.5% to -4.2%) in women. Mortality and case fatality but not event rate declined in all age groups: the stroke event rate decreased in older people but increased by 2% each year in adults aged 35 to 54 years. Of the total decline in mortality rates, 71% was attributed to the decline in case fatality (78% in men and 66% in women) and the remainder to the reduction in stroke event rates. The contribution of the two factors varied between age groups. Whereas the reduction in mortality rates in people younger than 55 years was due to the reduction in case fatality, in the oldest age group (≥85 years) reductions in case fatality and event rates contributed nearly equally. CONCLUSIONS: Declines in case fatality, probably driven by improvements in stroke care, contributed more than declines in event rates to the overall reduction in stroke mortality. Mortality reduction in men and women younger than 55 was solely a result of a decrease in case fatality, whereas stroke event rates increased in the age group 35 to 54 years. The increase in stroke event rates in young adults is a concern. This suggests that stroke prevention needs to be strengthened to reduce the occurrence of stroke in people younger than 55 years.


Assuntos
Acidente Vascular Cerebral/mortalidade , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Bases de Dados Factuais , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Hospitalização/tendências , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade/tendências , Adulto Jovem
20.
JMIR Form Res ; 3(2): e9910, 2019 Apr 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30958277

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Most food in the United Kingdom is purchased in supermarkets, and many of these purchases are routinely tracked through supermarket loyalty card data. Using such data may be an effective way to develop remote public health interventions and to measure objectively their effectiveness at changing food purchasing behavior. OBJECTIVE: The Front-of-pack food Labels: Impact on Consumer Choice (FLICC) study is a pilot randomized controlled trial of a digital behavior change intervention. This pilot trial aimed to collect data on recruitment and retention rates and to provide estimates of effect sizes for the primary outcome (healthiness of ready meals and pizzas purchased) to inform a larger trial. METHODS: The intervention consisted of a website where participants could access tailored feedback on previous purchases of ready meals and pizzas, set goals for behavior change, and model and practice the recommended healthy shopping behavior using traffic light labels. The control consisted of Web-based information on traffic light labeling. Participants were recruited via email from a list of loyalty card holders held by the participating supermarket. All food and drink purchases for the participants for the 6 months before recruitment, during the 6-week intervention period, and during a 12-week washout period were transferred to the research team by the participating supermarket. Healthiness of ready meals and pizzas was measured using a predeveloped scale based solely on the traffic light colors on the foods. Questionnaires were completed at recruitment, end of the intervention, and end of washout to estimate the effect of the intervention on variables that mediate behavior change (eg, belief and intention formation). RESULTS: We recruited 496 participants from an initial email to 50,000 people. Only 3 people withdrew from the study, and purchase data were received for all other participants. A total of 208 participants completed all 3 questionnaires. There was no difference in the healthiness of purchased ready meals and pizzas between the intervention and control arms either during the intervention period (P=.32) or at washout (P=.59). CONCLUSIONS: Although the FLICC study did not find evidence of an impact of the intervention on food purchasing behavior, the unique methods used in this pilot trial are informative for future studies that plan to use supermarket loyalty card data in collaboration with supermarket partners. The experience of the trial showcases the possibilities and challenges associated with the use of loyalty card data in public health research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN19316955; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN19316955 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/76IVZ9WjK). INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.1186/s40814-015-0015-1.

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