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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(12): 6300-6307, 2020 Mar 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32165543

RESUMO

We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the literature. Both are driven in part by attitudes and preferences that are not egoistic but socially embedded; that is, each household's decisions are influenced by the decisions made by others. In a famous paper, Garrett Hardin [G. Hardin, Science 162, 1243-1248 (1968)] drew attention to overpopulation and concluded that the solution lay in people "abandoning the freedom to breed." That human attitudes and practices are socially embedded suggests that it is possible for people to reduce their fertility rates and consumption demands without experiencing a loss in wellbeing. We focus on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and consumption in the rich world and argue that bottom-up social mechanisms rather than top-down government interventions are better placed to bring about those ecologically desirable changes.

3.
Ecol Lett ; 23(1): 2-15, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31707763

RESUMO

Changing conditions may lead to sudden shifts in the state of ecosystems when critical thresholds are passed. Some well-studied drivers of such transitions lead to predictable outcomes such as a turbid lake or a degraded landscape. Many ecosystems are, however, complex systems of many interacting species. While detecting upcoming transitions in such systems is challenging, predicting what comes after a critical transition is terra incognita altogether. The problem is that complex ecosystems may shift to many different, alternative states. Whether an impending transition has minor, positive or catastrophic effects is thus unclear. Some systems may, however, behave more predictably than others. The dynamics of mutualistic communities can be expected to be relatively simple, because delayed negative feedbacks leading to oscillatory or other complex dynamics are weak. Here, we address the question of whether this relative simplicity allows us to foresee a community's future state. As a case study, we use a model of a bipartite mutualistic network and show that a network's post-transition state is indicated by the way in which a system recovers from minor disturbances. Similar results obtained with a unipartite model of facilitation suggest that our results are of relevance to a wide range of mutualistic systems.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Modelos Biológicos , Previsões , Características de Residência , Simbiose
4.
J Am Med Dir Assoc ; 2019 Dec 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31836428

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Acute illnesses and subsequent hospital admissions present large health stressors to older adults, after which their recovery is variable. The concept of physical resilience offers opportunities to develop dynamical tools to predict an individual's recovery potential. This study aimed to investigate if dynamical resilience indicators based on repeated physical and mental measurements in acutely hospitalized geriatric patients have added value over single baseline measurements in predicting favorable recovery. DESIGN: Intensive longitudinal study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 121 patients (aged 84.3 ± 6.2 years, 60% female) admitted to the geriatric ward for acute illness. MEASUREMENTS: In addition to preadmission characteristics (frailty, multimorbidity), in-hospital heart rate and physical activity were continuously monitored with a wearable sensor. Momentary well-being (life satisfaction, anxiety, discomfort) was measured by experience sampling 4 times per day. The added value of dynamical indicators of resilience was investigated for predicting recovery at hospital discharge and 3 months later. RESULTS: 31% of participants satisfied the criteria of good recovery at hospital discharge and 50% after 3 months. A combination of a frailty index, multimorbidity, Clinical Frailty Scale, and or gait speed predicted good recovery reasonably well on the short term [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.79], but only moderately after 3 months (AUC = 0.70). On addition of dynamical resilience indicators, the AUC for predicting good 3-month recovery increased to 0.79 (P = .03). Variability in life satisfaction and anxiety during the hospital stay were independent predictors of good 3-month recovery [odds ratio (OR) = 0.24, P = .01, and OR = 0.54, P = .04, respectively]. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: These results highlight that measurements capturing the dynamic functioning of multiple physiological systems have added value in assessing physical resilience in clinical practice, especially those monitoring mental responses. Improved monitoring and prediction of physical resilience could help target intensive treatment options and subsequent geriatric rehabilitation to patients who will most likely benefit from them.

5.
J R Soc Interface ; 16(159): 20190629, 2019 Oct 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31662072

RESUMO

The dynamics of complex systems, such as ecosystems, financial markets and the human brain, emerge from the interactions of numerous components. We often lack the knowledge to build reliable models for the behaviour of such network systems. This makes it difficult to predict potential instabilities. We show that one could use the natural fluctuations in multivariate time series to reveal network regions with particularly slow dynamics. The multidimensional slowness points to the direction of minimal resilience, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations on this set of nodes will take longest to recover. We compare an autocorrelation-based method with a variance-based method for different time-series lengths, data resolution and different noise regimes. We show that the autocorrelation-based method is less robust for short time series or time series with a low resolution but more robust for varying noise levels. This novel approach may help to identify unstable regions of multivariate systems or to distinguish safe from unsafe perturbations.

6.
Nat Ecol Evol ; 3(10): 1396-1403, 2019 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31527729

RESUMO

Sustainability within planetary boundaries requires concerted action by individuals, governments, civil society and private actors. For the private sector, there is concern that the power exercised by transnational corporations generates, and is even central to, global environmental change. Here, we ask under which conditions transnational corporations could either hinder or promote a global shift towards sustainability. We show that a handful of transnational corporations have become a major force shaping the global intertwined system of people and planet. Transnational corporations in agriculture, forestry, seafood, cement, minerals and fossil energy cause environmental impacts and possess the ability to influence critical functions of the biosphere. We review evidence of current practices and identify six observed features of change towards 'corporate biosphere stewardship', with significant potential for upscaling. Actions by transnational corporations, if combined with effective public policies and improved governmental regulations, could substantially accelerate sustainability efforts.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Humanos
7.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 67(12): 2650-2657, 2019 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31498881

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Geriatricians are often confronted with unexpected health outcomes in older adults with complex multimorbidity. Aging researchers have recently called for a focus on physical resilience as a new approach to explaining such outcomes. Physical resilience, defined as the ability to resist functional decline or recover health following a stressor, is an emerging construct. METHODS: Based on an outline of the state-of-the-art in research on the measurement of physical resilience, this article describes what tests to predict resilience can already be used in clinical practice and which innovations are to be expected soon. RESULTS: An older adult's recovery potential is currently predicted by static tests of physiological reserves. Although geriatric medicine typically adopts a multidisciplinary view of the patient and implicitly performs resilience management to a certain extent, clinical management of older adults can benefit from explicitly applying the dynamical concept of resilience. Two crucial leads for advancing our capacity to measure and manage the resilience of individual patients are advocated: first, performing multiple repeated measurements around a stressor can provide insight about the patient's dynamic responses to stressors; and, second, linking psychological and physiological subsystems, as proposed by network studies on resilience, can provide insight into dynamic interactions involved in a resilient response. CONCLUSION: A big challenge still lies ahead in translating the dynamical concept of resilience into clinical tools and guidelines. As a first step in bridging this gap, this article outlines what opportunities clinicians and researchers can already exploit to improve prediction, understanding, and management of resilience of older adults. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:2650-2657, 2019.

8.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 2553, 2019 06 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31201306

RESUMO

The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers.

9.
Ecol Lett ; 22(8): 1243-1252, 2019 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31134748

RESUMO

The question whether communities should be viewed as superorganisms or loose collections of individual species has been the subject of a long-standing debate in ecology. Each view implies different spatiotemporal community patterns. Along spatial environmental gradients, the organismic view predicts that species turnover is discontinuous, with sharp boundaries between communities, while the individualistic view predicts gradual changes in species composition. Using a spatially explicit multispecies competition model, we show that organismic and individualistic forms of community organisation are two limiting cases along a continuum of outcomes. A high variance of competition strength leads to the emergence of organism-like communities due to the presence of alternative stable states, while weak and uniform interactions induce gradual changes in species composition. Dispersal can play a confounding role in these patterns. Our work highlights the critical importance of considering species interactions to understand and predict the responses of species and communities to environmental changes.


Assuntos
Ecologia , Ecossistema
10.
Nat Hum Behav ; 3(1): 92-100, 2019 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30932057

RESUMO

Putting one's feelings into words (also called affect labeling) can attenuate positive and negative emotions. Here, we track the evolution of specific emotions for 74,487 Twitter users by analysing the emotional content of their tweets before and after they explicitly report experiencing a positive or negative emotion. Our results describe the evolution of emotions and their expression at the temporal resolution of one minute. The expression of positive emotions is preceded by a short, steep increase in positive valence and followed by short decay to normal levels. Negative emotions, however, build up more slowly and are followed by a sharp reversal to previous levels, consistent with previous studies demonstrating the attenuating effects of affect labeling. We estimate that positive and negative emotions last approximately 1.25 and 1.5 h, respectively, from onset to evanescence. A separate analysis for male and female individuals suggests the potential for gender-specific differences in emotional dynamics.


Assuntos
Emoções , Linguagem , Mídias Sociais , Fatores de Tempo , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Modelos Teóricos , Fatores Sexuais , Mídias Sociais/estatística & dados numéricos
11.
Nat Ecol Evol ; 3(3): 355-362, 2019 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30778190

RESUMO

There is growing concern over tipping points arising in ecosystems because of the crossing of environmental thresholds. Tipping points lead to abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts between alternative ecosystem states, potentially incurring high societal costs. Trait variation in populations is central to the biotic feedbacks that maintain alternative ecosystem states, as they govern the responses of populations to environmental change that could stabilize or destabilize ecosystem states. However, we know little about how evolutionary changes in trait distributions over time affect the occurrence of tipping points and even less about how big-scale ecological shifts reciprocally interact with trait dynamics. We argue that interactions between ecological and evolutionary processes should be taken into account in order to understand the balance of feedbacks governing tipping points in nature.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Evolução Biológica , Modelos Biológicos
12.
J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci ; 74(7): 1119-1126, 2019 Jun 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30052796

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Finding ways to quantify resilience as a predictor of a person's resistance to health challenges is important to improve healthy aging. This study investigated a unique sample of high-functioning older persons in whom traditional markers of frailty and functional decline are largely absent. Translating complex dynamical systems theory to humans, dynamical indicators of resilience in postural balance time series may sensitively discriminate levels of resilience. METHODS: This study investigated 240 high-functioning older adults (mean age 83.9 ± 2.9 years, 59% male), of whom 94 hikers of the Nijmegen Four Days Marches. Participants stood upright on a force plate with eyes open and feet at shoulder width for 30 seconds. Center of pressure data were analyzed for dynamical indicators of resilience (variance and temporal autocorrelation). After 1 year, participants were compared on a modified Successful Aging Index. RESULTS: Mediolateral center of pressure displacement of hikers exhibited significantly lower variance (2.2 vs 2.8 mm, p < .001) and temporal autocorrelation (0.59 vs 0.65, p = .006), compared with nonhikers. Multivariably adjusted, mediolateral variance was significantly associated with successful aging at baseline (b = -1.43, p = .003) and 1-year follow-up (b = -1.94, p < .001), while mediolateral temporal autocorrelation was not. CONCLUSIONS: Two dynamical indicators of resilience (variance and temporal autocorrelation) calculated on time series of mediolateral center of pressure displacement differed between hikers and nonhikers within a group of high-functioning older adults. In the whole group, variance was independently associated with successful aging at baseline and after 1 year. Our results support the hypothesis that resilience of older persons may be estimated from time series of natural fluctuations of bodily functions.

13.
Science ; 362(6421): 1357, 2018 12 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30573615
14.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 115(47): 11883-11890, 2018 11 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30373844

RESUMO

All life requires the capacity to recover from challenges that are as inevitable as they are unpredictable. Understanding this resilience is essential for managing the health of humans and their livestock. It has long been difficult to quantify resilience directly, forcing practitioners to rely on indirect static indicators of health. However, measurements from wearable electronics and other sources now allow us to analyze the dynamics of physiology and behavior with unsurpassed resolution. The resulting flood of data coincides with the emergence of novel analytical tools for estimating resilience from the pattern of microrecoveries observed in natural time series. Such dynamic indicators of resilience may be used to monitor the risk of systemic failure across systems ranging from organs to entire organisms. These tools invite a fundamental rethinking of our approach to the adaptive management of health and resilience.


Assuntos
Adaptação Fisiológica/fisiologia , Saúde/classificação , Resiliência Psicológica/classificação , Animais , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Saúde Holística , Humanos
15.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 115(33): 8252-8259, 2018 08 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30082409

RESUMO

We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.

16.
Glob Chang Biol ; 24(11): 5096-5109, 2018 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30058246

RESUMO

Fires and herbivores shape tropical vegetation structure, but their effects on the stability of tree cover in different climates remain elusive. Here, we integrate empirical and theoretical approaches to determine the effects of climate on fire- and herbivore-driven forest-savanna shifts. We analyzed time series of remotely sensed tree cover and fire observations with estimates of herbivore pressure across the tropics to quantify the fire-tree cover and herbivore-tree cover feedbacks along climatic gradients. From these empirical results, we developed a spatially explicit, stochastic fire-vegetation model that accounts for herbivore pressure. We find emergent alternative stable states in tree cover with hysteresis across rainfall conditions. Whereas the herbivore-tree cover feedback can maintain low tree cover below 1,100 mm mean annual rainfall, the fire-tree cover feedback can maintain low tree cover at higher rainfall levels. Interestingly, the rainfall range where fire-driven alternative vegetation states can be found depends strongly on rainfall variability. Both higher seasonal and interannual variability in rainfall increase fire frequency, but only seasonality expands the distribution of fire-maintained savannas into wetter climates. The strength of the fire-tree cover feedback depends on the spatial configuration of tree cover: Landscapes with clustered low tree-cover areas are more susceptible to cross a tipping point of fire-driven forest loss than landscapes with scattered deforested patches. Our study shows how feedbacks involving fire, herbivores, and the spatial structure of tree cover explain the resilience of tree cover across climates.


Assuntos
Clima , Florestas , Árvores/fisiologia , Adaptação Fisiológica , Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Herbivoria , Clima Tropical
17.
Sci Adv ; 4(5): eaar5809, 2018 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29732409

RESUMO

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C-1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.

18.
Glob Chang Biol ; 24(7): 2875-2883, 2018 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29658194

RESUMO

Rainforests are among the most charismatic as well as the most endangered ecosystems of the world. However, although the effects of climate change on tropical forests resilience is a focus of intense research, the conditions for their equally impressive temperate counterparts remain poorly understood, and it remains unclear whether tropical and temperate rainforests have fundamental similarities or not. Here we use new global data from high precision laser altimetry equipment on satellites to reveal for the first time that across climate zones 'giant forests' are a distinct and universal phenomenon, reflected in a separate mode of canopy height (~40 m) worldwide. Occurrence of these giant forests (cutoff height > 25 m) is negatively correlated with variability in rainfall and temperature. We also demonstrate that their distribution is sharply limited to situations with a mean annual precipitation above a threshold of 1,500 mm that is surprisingly universal across tropical and temperate climates. The total area with such precipitation levels is projected to increase by ~4 million km2 globally. Our results thus imply that strategic management could in principle facilitate the expansion of giant forests, securing critically endangered biodiversity as well as carbon storage in selected regions.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Floresta Úmida , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Biodiversidade , Carbono , Temperatura Ambiente , Clima Tropical
20.
PLoS One ; 13(1): e0191027, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29351323

RESUMO

Recent studies have interpreted patterns of remotely sensed tree cover as evidence that forest with intermediate tree cover might be unstable in the tropics, as it will tip into either a closed forest or a more open savanna state. Here we show that across all continents the frequency of wildfires rises sharply as tree cover falls below ~40%. Using a simple empirical model, we hypothesize that the steepness of this pattern causes intermediate tree cover (30‒60%) to be unstable for a broad range of assumptions on tree growth and fire-driven mortality. We show that across all continents, observed frequency distributions of tropical tree cover are consistent with this hypothesis. We argue that percolation of fire through an open landscape may explain the remarkably universal rise of fire frequency around a critical tree cover, but we show that simple percolation models cannot predict the actual threshold quantitatively. The fire-driven instability of intermediate states implies that tree cover will not change smoothly with climate or other stressors and shifts between closed forest and a state of low tree cover will likely tend to be relatively sharp and difficult to reverse.


Assuntos
Fogo , Florestas , Modelos Teóricos
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