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PLoS One ; 16(1): e0245596, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33465127


To meet the SDG requirement of spatial disaggregation of indicators, several methods have been developed to generate estimates of under-five mortality at the sub-national level. The reliability of sub-national mortality estimates in children aged 5-14 with the available survey data has not been evaluated so far. We generate Admin-1 sub-national estimates of the risk of dying in children aged less than five (5q0) and those aged 5 to 14 years old (10q5). We use 96 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 20 Sub-Saharan countries having at least 3 surveys designed to be representative at a sub-national level. The estimates account for the complex sample design of DHS and HIV-related biases in young children. A Bayesian space-time model previously developed for under-five mortality is used to smooth estimates across space and time in both age groups to reduce problems associated with data sparsity. The posterior distributions of the probability 10q5 are used to compute coefficients of variation and assess precision. Sufficiently precise estimates are retained to study the sub-national relationship between age-specific mortality rates (5q0 and 10q5), accounting for uncertainty in sub-national levels. Out of 1,132 space-time estimates, 62.3% are considered sufficiently precise with high heterogeneity across countries. Across all periods, sub-national estimates of mortality in children aged 0-4 are highly correlated with those in older children and young adolescents but this correlation is largely driven by the mortality decline. Within specific periods of time, it is often impossible to assess the relationship between mortality rates in the two age groups at the sub-national level, except in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Senegal and Zambia. As increased attention is devoted to survival after age 5, more research is needed to ensure that sub-national areas with specific interventions required for older children can be correctly identified.

Sci Rep ; 10(1): 4956, 2020 03 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32188901


Literature on earthquake impact on hospital admissions is lacking, particularly in low-resource settings. Our aim was to study the pattern of admissions before and after the 2015 earthquake in a tertiary hospital in Nepal. We used routine hospital data from 9,596 admissions, and defined four periods: pre-earthquake (pre-EQ), acute (EQ1), post-acute (EQ2), and post-earthquake (post-EQ). We compared length of hospital stay (LOS) across the study periods using negative binomial regressions. We used logistic regressions to study changes in probability of admission for diagnostic categories, and Generalized Additive Models to model the difference in number of admissions compared to pre-EQ baseline. LOS was longer in EQ1 than during pre-EQ, in particular for injury-related admissions. In EQ1, the odds of injury admissions increased, while they decreased for the majority of other diagnoses, with the odds of pregnancy-related admissions remaining low until post-EQ. The number of admissions dropped in EQ1 and EQ2, and returned to pre-EQ trends in post-EQ, accumulating 381 admissions lost (CI: 206-556). Our findings suggest that hospital disaster plans must not only foresee injury management after earthquakes, but also ensure accessibility, in particular for pregnant women, and promote a quick return to normality to prevent additional negative health outcomes.

Assistência à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Planejamento em Desastres/normas , Terremotos , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Admissão do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Centros de Atenção Terciária/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Assistência à Saúde/tendências , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/tendências , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Tempo de Internação , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nepal , Admissão do Paciente/tendências , Gravidez , Adulto Jovem
Glob Health Action ; 13(1): 1717411, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32027239


Background: Seasonal patterns of mortality have been identified in Sub-Saharan Africa but their changes over time are not well documented.Objective: Based on death notification data from Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, this study assesses seasonal patterns of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by age groups and evaluates how these patterns changed over the period 1976-2015.Methods: Monthly numbers of deaths by cause were obtained from death registers maintained by the Municipal Hygiene Office in charge of verifying deaths before the issuance of burial permits. Generalized Additive Mixed regression models (GAMM) were used to test for seasonality in mortality and its changes over the last four decades, controlling for long-term trends in mortality.Results: Among children, risks of dying were the highest during the hot and rainy season, but seasonality in child mortality has significantly declined since the mid-1970s, as a result of declines in the burden of infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies. In adults aged 60 and above, all-cause mortality rates are the highest in the dry and cold season, due to peaks in cardiovascular diseases, with little change over time. Overall, changes in the seasonality of all-cause mortality have been driven by shifts in the hierarchy of causes of death, while changes in the seasonality within broad categories of causes of death have been modest.Conclusion: Shifts in disease patterns brought about by the epidemiological transition, rather than changes in seasonal variation in cause-specific mortality, are the main drivers of trends in the seasonality of all-cause mortality.

Causas de Morte/tendências , Mortalidade da Criança , Mortalidade/tendências , Estações do Ano , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Estudos Epidemiológicos , Feminino , Previsões , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Madagáscar/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto Jovem
PLoS One ; 14(7): e0220016, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31318948


BACKGROUND: In 2015, an earthquake killing 9,000 and injuring 22,000 people hit Nepal. The Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital (TUTH), a reference tertiary hospital, was operational immediately after the earthquake. We studied the profile of earthquake victims admitted in TUTH and assessed what factors could influence hospital length of stay. METHODS: An earthquake victim dataset was created based on patient records, with information on sex, age, date of admission and discharge, diagnosis, and surgical intervention. We performed an initial descriptive overview of the earthquake victims followed by a time-to-event analysis to compare length of hospital stay in different groups, using log rank test and cox regression to calculate Hazard Ratios. RESULTS: There were in total 501 admitted victims, with the peak of admissions occurring on the fifth day after the earthquake. About 89% had injury as main diagnosis, mostly in lower limbs, and 66% of all injuries were fractures. Nearly 69% of all patients underwent surgery. The median length of hospital stay was 10 days. Lower limb and trunk injuries had longer hospital stays than injuries in the head and neck (HR = 0.68, p = 0.009, and HR = 0.62 p = 0.005, respectively). Plastic surgeries had longer hospital stays than orthopaedic surgeries (HR = 0.57 p = 0.006). Having a crush injury and undergoing an amputation also increased time to discharge (HR = 0.57, p = 0.013, and HR = 0.65 p = 0.045 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Hospital stay was particularly long in this sample in comparison to other studies on earthquake victims, indirectly indicating the high burden TUTH had to bear to treat these patients. To strengthen resilience, tertiary hospitals should have preparedness plans to cope with a large influx of injured patients after a large-scale disaster, in particular for the initial days when there is limited external aid.

Vítimas de Desastres/estatística & dados numéricos , Terremotos , Hospitalização , Centros de Atenção Terciária , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Demografia , Vítimas de Desastres/história , Feminino , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Registros Médicos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nepal/epidemiologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Adulto Jovem
Confl Health ; 12: 16, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29686727


Evidence of use of toxic gas chemical weapons in the Syrian war has been reported by governmental and non-governmental international organizations since the war started in March 2011. To date, the profiles of victims of the largest chemical attacks in Syria remain unknown. In this study, we used descriptive epidemiological analysis to describe demographic characteristics of victims of the largest chemical weapons attacks in the Syrian war. We analysed conflict-related, direct deaths from chemical weapons recorded in non-government-controlled areas by the Violation Documentation Center, occurring from March 18, 2011 to April 10, 2017, with complete information on the victim's date and place of death, cause and demographic group. 'Major' chemical weapons events were defined as events causing ten or more direct deaths. As of April 10, 2017, a total of 1206 direct deaths meeting inclusion criteria were recorded in the dataset from all chemical weapons attacks regardless of size. Five major chemical weapons attacks caused 1084 of these documented deaths. Civilians comprised the majority (n = 1058, 97.6%) of direct deaths from major chemical weapons attacks in Syria and combatants comprised a minority of 2.4% (n = 26). In the first three major chemical weapons attacks, which occurred in 2013, children comprised 13%-14% of direct deaths, ranging in numbers from 2 deaths among 14 to 117 deaths among 923. Children comprised higher proportions of direct deaths in later major chemical weapons attacks, forming 21% (n = 7) of 33 deaths in the 2016 major attack and 34.8% (n = 32) of 92 deaths in the 2017 major attack. Our finding of an extreme disparity in direct deaths from major chemical weapons attacks in Syria, with 97.6% of victims being civilians and only 2.4% being combatants provides evidence that major chemical weapons attacks were indiscriminate or targeted civilians directly; both violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL). Identifying and quantifying chemical weapons violations requires inter-disciplinary collaboration to inform international policy, humanitarian intervention and legal action.