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1.
Clin Pharmacol Ther ; 2020 May 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32415986

RESUMO

Chloroquine has been used for the treatment of malaria for more than 70 years; however, chloroquine pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) profile in Plasmodium vivax malaria is poorly understood. The objective of this study was to describe the PKPD relationship of chloroquine and its major metabolite, desethylchloroquine, in a P. vivax volunteer infection study. We analyzed data from 24 healthy subjects who were inoculated with blood-stage P. vivax malaria and administered a standard treatment course of chloroquine. The PK of chloroquine and desethylchloroquine was described by a two-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination. The relationship between plasma and whole blood concentrations of chloroquine and P. vivax parasitemia was characterized by a PKPD delayed response model, where the equilibration half-lives were 32.7 h (95% CI: 27.4-40.5) for plasma data and 24.1 h (95% CI: 19.0-32.7) for whole blood data. The estimated parasite multiplication rate was 17 folds per 48 hours (95% CI: 14-20) and maximum parasite killing rate by chloroquine was 0.213 h-1 (95% CI: 0.196-0.230), translating to a parasite clearance half-life of 4.5 h (95% CI: 4.1-5.0) and a parasite reduction ratio of 400 every 48 hours (95% CI: 320-500). This is the first study that characterized the PKPD relationship between chloroquine plasma and whole blood concentrations and P. vivax clearance using a semi-mechanistic population PKPD modelling. This PKPD model can be used to optimize dosing scenarios and to identify optimal dosing regimens for chloroquine where resistance to chloroquine is increasing.

2.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 2020 May 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32372747

RESUMO

Tafenoquine has been licensed for the single-dose radical cure of Plasmodium vivax in adults; however, it is only recommended in patients with > 70% of normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity. Because this may hinder widespread use, we investigated sex-based treatment strategies in which all adult patients are tested with a qualitative G6PD rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase normal males are prescribed tafenoquine in all three strategies, whereas G6PD normal females are prescribed either a low-dose 14-day primaquine regimen (PQ14, total dose 3.5 mg/kg) or a high-dose 7-day primaquine regimen (PQ7, total dose 7 mg/kg), or referred to a healthcare facility for quantitative G6PD testing before prescribing tafenoquine. Patients testing G6PD deficient are prescribed a weekly course of primaquine for 8 weeks. We compared the cost-effectiveness of these three strategies to usual care in four countries using a decision tree model. Usual care in Ethiopia does not include radical cure, whereas Afghanistan, Indonesia, and Vietnam prescribe PQ14 without G6PD screening. The cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted was expressed through incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Compared with usual care, the ICERs for a sex-based treatment strategy with PQ7 for females from a healthcare provider perspective were $127 per DALY averted in Vietnam, $466 in Ethiopia, $1,089 in Afghanistan, and $4,443 in Indonesia. The PQ14 and referral options cost more while averting fewer DALYs than PQ7. This study provides an alternative cost-effective mode of rolling out tafenoquine in areas where initial testing with only a G6PD RDT is feasible.

3.
Breast ; 51: 114-119, 2020 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32298962

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: This multicentre, retrospective study aimed to establish correlation between estimated tumour volume doubling times (TVDT) from a series of interval breast cancers with their clinicopathological features. The potential impact of delayed diagnosis on prognosis was also explored. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Interval cancers, where screening mammograms demonstrated changes that were retrospectively classified as either uncertain or suspicious, were reviewed from five screening units within the UK NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP). Data collected included the time interval between screening mammogram and cancer diagnosis, the size of the initial mammographic abnormality and of the subsequent cancer, demographics, mammographic density and tumour biology. We estimated volume doubling times and the estimated change in size and node status, which would have followed if these cancers had been detected at the previous screen. RESULTS: 306 interval cancers meeting the inclusion criteria were identified. Average time from screening to diagnosis was 644 days (SD 276 days). 19% were diagnosed in the first twelve months, 42% in the subsequent twelve months and 39% thereafter. Overall average estimated TVDT was 167 days (95% CI 151-186). Significant differences were noted with age (p = 0.01), grade (p < 0.001) and ER status (p < 0.001) with women under 60, grade 3 cancers and ER negative cancers having shorter TVDTs. HER2 positive tumours had shorter doubling times than HER2 negative, but this difference was not statistically significant. It was estimated that diagnosing these cancers at the previous screen would have increased ten-year survival from 82% to 86%. CONCLUSION: High grade, ER negativity and younger age were associated with shorter durations of TVDT. The role of HER2 status on interval cancer growth rate requires further assessment. It is likely that the delayed diagnosis of interval cancers confers a 4% reduction in ten-year survival.

4.
BMC Psychiatry ; 20(1): 168, 2020 Apr 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32295545

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Perinatal depression is a significant contributor to maternal morbidity and mortality globally. Migrant women, particularly those living in low- and middle-income settings, represent a particularly vulnerable group due to stressors experienced before, during and after migration. The vast majority of global migration flows occurring within and between low- and middle-income regions, yet existing evidence focuses predominantly on migrants in high-income destinations. This study aimed to redress this significant gap in the evidence by determining the prevalence and determinants of perinatal depression among migrant women on the Thai-Myanmar border. METHODS: A cohort of labour migrant and refugee women was followed-up from the first trimester of pregnancy to one month post-partum. Depression status was assessed in the first, second and third trimesters of pregnancy and at one month post-partum using the Structured Clinical Interview for the Diagnosis of DSM-IV Disorders. Women diagnosed with depression had immediate access to care. Data on potential demographic, social and clinical associated factors was collected using a questionnaire. Prevalence and incidence of any depressive disorder and moderate-severe depressive disorder was calculated. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression using complete case analysis was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) of association between exposure variables and depression status. RESULTS: Five hundred sixty-eight women participated. Period prevalence (from first trimester of pregnancy to one month post-partum) of moderate-severe perinatal depression was 18.5% (95% CI 15.4-21.9%). Overall, 15.4% (95% CI 11.8-19.6%) of women developed new-onset moderate-severe depression during the study period. Forty-two participants received treatment for depression. Risk factors were interpersonal violence (OR 4.5; 95% CI 1.9-11.1); history of trauma (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.4-4.3); self-reported history of depression (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.2-4.2); labour migrant status (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-4.0); low social support (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-3.7); and maternal age (OR 1.1 per year; 95% CI 1.0-1.1). Limitations of the study include that culturally specific manifestations of depression may have been missed. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal depression represents a significant burden among migrant women on the Thai-Myanmar border. Programmes to address the determinants along with early case identification and effective treatment and referral systems are key to addressing perinatal depression in this low-resource setting.

7.
Int J Cancer ; 2020 Mar 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32181888

RESUMO

Mechanisms underlying adiposity-colorectal cancer (CRC) association are incompletely understood. Using UK Biobank data, we investigated the role of C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin-A1c (HbA1c) and (jointly) sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and testosterone, in explaining this association. Total effect of obesity versus normal-weight (based on waist circumference, body mass index, waist-hip ratio) on CRC risk was decomposed into natural direct (NDE) and indirect (NIE) effects using sequential mediation analysis. After a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 2070 incident CRC cases (men = 1,280; postmenopausal women = 790) were recorded. For men, the adjusted risk ratio (RR) for waist circumference (≥102 vs. ≤94 cm) was 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-1.58). The RRsNIE were 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01-1.16) through all biomarkers, 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.11) through pathways influenced by CRP, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.97-1.01) through HbA1c beyond (the potential influence of) CRP and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.99-1.08) through SHBG and testosterone combined beyond CRP and HbA1c. The RRNDE was 1.26 (95% CI: 1.09-1.47). For women, the RR for waist circumference (≥88 vs. ≤80 cm) was 1.27 (95% CI: 1.07-1.50). The RRsNIE were 1.08 (95% CI: 0.94-1.22) through all biomarkers, 1.08 (95% CI: 0.99-1.17) through CRP, 1.00 (95% CI: 0.98-1.02) through HbA1c beyond CRP and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.92-1.09) through SHBG and testosterone combined beyond CRP and HbA1c. The RRNDE was 1.18 (95% CI: 0.96-1.45). For men and women, pathways influenced by CRP explained a small proportion of the adiposity-CRC association. Testosterone and SHBG also explained a small proportion of this association in men. These results suggest that pathways marked by these obesity-related factors may not explain a large proportion of the adiposity-CRC association.

8.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 20(1): 40, 2020 Feb 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32103727

RESUMO

In the original publication of this article [1], the incorrect causal diagram was submitted as Fig. 1.

9.
BMC Med ; 18(1): 28, 2020 Feb 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32075649

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: An acute episode of malaria can be followed by multiple recurrent episodes either due to re-infection, recrudescence of a partially treated parasite or, in the case of Plasmodium vivax or P. ovale, relapse from the dormant liver stage of the parasite. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of recurrent malaria episodes on morbidity and mortality in Papua, Indonesia. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective analysis of routinely collected data from malaria patients attending the primary referral hospital in Papua, Indonesia, between April 2004 and December 2013. Multi-state modelling was used to estimate the effect of recurring malaria episodes on re-presentation and admission to hospital and death. The risks of early (≤ 14 days) and late (15 to 365 days) hospital admission and death were estimated separately in our study to distinguish between the direct and indirect effects of malaria recurrence on adverse outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 68,361 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 37,168 (54.4%) presented initially with P. falciparum, 22,209 (32.5%) with P. vivax, and 8984 (13.1%) with other species. During 12 months of follow-up after each of the first four malaria episodes, 10,868 (15.9%) patients were admitted to hospital and 897 (1.3%) died. The risk of re-presenting to the hospital with malaria increased from 34.7% (95% CI 34.4%, 35.1%) at first episode to 58.6% (57.5%, 59.6%) following the third episode of malaria. After adjusting for co-factors, infection with P. vivax was a significant risk factor for re-presentation (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.48 (95% CI 1.44, 1.51)) and late admission to hospital (HR = 1.17 (1.11, 1.22)). Patients infected with P. falciparum had a greater overall rate of mortality within 14 days (HR = 1.54 (1.25, 1.92)), but after multiple episodes of malaria, there was a trend towards a higher rate of early death in patients infected with P. vivax compared to P. falciparum (HR = 1.91 (0.73, 4.97)). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to patients initially infected with P. falciparum, those infected with P. vivax had significantly more re-presentations to hospital with malaria, and this contributed to a high risk of inpatient admission and death. These findings highlight the importance of radical cure of P. vivax to eliminate the dormant liver stages that trigger relapses.

10.
BMC Med ; 18(1): 14, 2020 Jan 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31941488

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In endemic areas, pregnant women are highly susceptible to Plasmodium falciparum malaria characterized by the accumulation of parasitized red blood cells (pRBC) in the placenta. In subsequent pregnancies, women develop protective immunity to pregnancy-associated malaria and this has been hypothesized to be due to the acquisition of antibodies to the parasite variant surface antigen VAR2CSA. In this systematic review we provide the first synthesis of the association between antibodies to pregnancy-specific P. falciparum antigens and pregnancy and birth outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based studies (published up to 07 June 2019) of pregnant women living in P. falciparum endemic areas that examined antibody responses to pregnancy-specific P. falciparum antigens and outcomes including placental malaria, low birthweight, preterm birth, peripheral parasitaemia, maternal anaemia, and severe malaria. RESULTS: We searched 6 databases and identified 33 studies (30 from Africa) that met predetermined inclusion and quality criteria: 16 studies contributed estimates in a format enabling inclusion in meta-analysis and 17 were included in narrative form only. Estimates were mostly from cross-sectional data (10 studies) and were heterogeneous in terms of magnitude and direction of effect. Included studies varied in terms of antigens tested, methodology used to measure antibody responses, and epidemiological setting. Antibody responses to pregnancy-specific pRBC and VAR2CSA antigens, measured at delivery, were associated with placental malaria (9 studies) and may therefore represent markers of infection, rather than correlates of protection. Antibody responses to pregnancy-specific pRBC, but not recombinant VAR2CSA antigens, were associated with trends towards protection from low birthweight (5 studies). CONCLUSIONS: Whilst antibody responses to several antigens were positively associated with the presence of placental and peripheral infections, this review did not identify evidence that any specific antibody response is associated with protection from pregnancy-associated malaria across multiple populations. Further prospective cohort studies using standardized laboratory methods to examine responses to a broad range of antigens in different epidemiological settings and throughout the gestational period, will be necessary to identify and prioritize pregnancy-specific P. falciparum antigens to advance the development of vaccines and serosurveillance tools targeting pregnant women.

11.
Ann Am Thorac Soc ; 17(4): 429-437, 2020 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31967855

RESUMO

Rationale: Poor lung function, a significant predictor of mortality, has been observed in postmenopausal women compared with those still menstruating. Menopausal age is a risk factor for several adverse health outcomes, but little evidence exists on the impact of menopausal age on lung function impairments, especially regarding post-bronchodilator lung function measures.Objectives: To investigate the association between age at menopause and pre- and post-bronchodilator lung function outcomes.Methods: During the sixth-decade follow-up of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study cohort (mean age, 53 yr), information was collected on most recent menstrual period and menopausal status. Lung function was measured at age 7 years and again at 53 years. Multiple linear regression was performed to determine the association between age at menopause and pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry, controlling for early and adult life confounders.Results: Women reporting an early age at natural menopause (<45 yr) had lower post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (-168 ml; 95% confidence interval, -273 to -63) and lower forced vital capacity (-186 ml; 95% confidence interval, -302 to -70) than postmenopausal women who experienced menopause at a later age (≥45 yr). No association was observed with forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity ratio. Adjustment for early-life confounders strengthened these associations.Conclusions: This study provides new evidence that early menopause is associated with reduced lung function that is suggestive of restriction, but not obstruction, even after adjustment for early-life confounders. Given the important link between poor lung function and mortality, clinicians should be aware of the risk of diminished lung function in postmenopausal women who experience menopause at an early age.

13.
Biom J ; 62(2): 444-466, 2020 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31919921

RESUMO

Multiple imputation (MI) is increasingly popular for handling multivariate missing data. Two general approaches are available in standard computer packages: MI based on the posterior distribution of incomplete variables under a multivariate (joint) model, and fully conditional specification (FCS), which imputes missing values using univariate conditional distributions for each incomplete variable given all the others, cycling iteratively through the univariate imputation models. In the context of longitudinal or clustered data, it is not clear whether these approaches result in consistent estimates of regression coefficient and variance component parameters when the analysis model of interest is a linear mixed effects model (LMM) that includes both random intercepts and slopes with either covariates or both covariates and outcome contain missing information. In the current paper, we compared the performance of seven different MI methods for handling missing values in longitudinal and clustered data in the context of fitting LMMs with both random intercepts and slopes. We study the theoretical compatibility between specific imputation models fitted under each of these approaches and the LMM, and also conduct simulation studies in both the longitudinal and clustered data settings. Simulations were motivated by analyses of the association between body mass index (BMI) and quality of life (QoL) in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Our findings showed that the relative performance of MI methods vary according to whether the incomplete covariate has fixed or random effects and whether there is missingnesss in the outcome variable. We showed that compatible imputation and analysis models resulted in consistent estimation of both regression parameters and variance components via simulation. We illustrate our findings with the analysis of LSAC data.

14.
Int J Cancer ; 146(6): 1541-1552, 2020 03 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31187481

RESUMO

Adiposity increases estrogen receptor (ER)-positive postmenopausal breast cancer risk. While mechanisms underlying this relationship are uncertain, dysregulated sex-steroid hormone production and insulin signaling are likely pathways. Our aim was to quantify mediating effects of fasting insulin and free estradiol in the adiposity and ER-positive postmenopausal breast cancer association. We used data from a case-cohort study of sex hormones and insulin signaling nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Eligible women, at baseline, were not diagnosed with cancer, were postmenopausal, did not use hormone therapy and had no history of diabetes or diabetes medication use. Women with ER-negative disease or breast cancer diagnosis within the first follow-up year were excluded. We analyzed the study as a cumulative sampling case-control study with 149 cases and 1,029 controls. Missing values for insulin and free estradiol were multiply imputed with chained equations. Interventional direct (IDE) and indirect (IIE) effects were estimated using regression-based multiple-mediator approach. For women with body mass index (BMI) >30 kg/m2 compared to women with BMI 18.5-25 kg/m2 , the risk ratio (RR) of breast cancer was 1.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.91). The estimated IDE (RR) not through the mediators was 1.03 (95% CI 0.43-2.48). Percentage mediated effect through free estradiol was 72% (IIE-RR 1.56; 95% CI 1.11-2.19). There was no evidence for an indirect effect through insulin (IIE-RR 1.12; 95% CI 0.68-1.84; 28% mediated). Our results suggest that circulating free estradiol plays an important mediating role in the adiposity-breast cancer relationship but does not explain all of the association.


Assuntos
Adiposidade/fisiologia , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Estradiol/sangue , Insulina/metabolismo , Pós-Menopausa/metabolismo , Adulto , Idoso , Índice de Massa Corporal , Neoplasias da Mama/sangue , Neoplasias da Mama/metabolismo , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Jejum/sangue , Jejum/fisiologia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pós-Menopausa/sangue , Receptores Estrogênicos/metabolismo , Medição de Risco , Vitória/epidemiologia , Circunferência da Cintura/fisiologia
15.
Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol ; 55(3): 309-318, 2020 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30903240

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Previous studies have shown that acquiring a disability is associated with a reduction in mental health, but they have not considered the cumulative impact of having a disability on mental health. We used acquisition of a non-psychological disability to estimate the association of each additional year lived with disability on mental health (measured using the Mental Component Summary score of the Short Form Health Survey). METHODS: We used the first 13 waves of data (years 2001-2013) from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. The sample included 4113 working-age (18-65 years) adults who were disability-free at waves 1 and 2. We fitted marginal structural models with inverse probability weights to estimate the association of each additional year of living with disability on mental health, employing multiple imputation to handle the missing data. RESULTS: Of the 4113 participants, 7.7 percent acquired a disability. On average, each additional year lived with disability was associated with a decrease in the mean Mental Component Summary score (ß = - 0.42; 95% CI - 0.71, - 0.14). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that each additional year lived with non-psychological disability is associated with a decline in mental health among working-age Australians.

16.
Respirology ; 25(3): 289-297, 2020 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31297952

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Early menarche is increasing in prevalence worldwide, prompting clinical and public health interest on its links with pulmonary function. We aimed to investigate the relationship between early menarche and lung function in middle age. METHODS: The population-based Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (born 1961; n = 8583), was initiated in 1968. The 5th Decade follow-up data (mean age: 45 years) included age at menarche and complex lung function testing. The 6th Decade follow-up (age: 53 years) repeated spirometry and gas transfer factor. Multiple linear regression and mediation analyses were performed to determine the association between age at menarche and adult lung function and investigate biological pathways, including the proportion mediated by adult-attained height. RESULTS: Girls reporting an early menarche (<12 years) were measured to be taller with greater lung function at age 7 years compared with those reporting menarche ≥12 years. By 45 years of age, they were shorter and had lower post-bronchodilator (BD) forced expiratory volume in 1 s (adjusted mean difference: -133 mL; 95% CI: -233, -33), forced vital capacity (-183 mL; 95% CI: -300, -65) and functional residual capacity (-168 mL; 95% CI: -315, -21). Magnitudes of spirometric deficits were similar at age 53 years. Forty percent of these total effects were mediated through adult-attained height. CONCLUSION: Early menarche was associated with reduced adult lung function. This is the first study to investigate post-BD outcomes and quantify the partial role of adult height in this association.

17.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 19(1): 223, 2019 12 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31795945

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Attrition due to death and non-attendance are common sources of bias in studies of age-related diseases. A simulation study is presented to compare two methods for estimating the survivor average causal effect (SACE) of a binary exposure (sex-specific dietary iron intake) on a binary outcome (age-related macular degeneration, AMD) in this setting. METHODS: A dataset of 10,000 participants was simulated 1200 times under each scenario with outcome data missing dependent on measured and unmeasured covariates and survival. Scenarios differed by the magnitude and direction of effect of an unmeasured confounder on both survival and the outcome, and whether participants who died following a protective exposure would also die if they had not received the exposure (validity of the monotonicity assumption). The performance of a marginal structural model (MSM, weighting for exposure, survival and missing data) was compared to a sensitivity approach for estimating the SACE. As an illustrative example, the SACE of iron intake on AMD was estimated using data from 39,918 participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. RESULTS: The MSM approach tended to underestimate the true magnitude of effect when the unmeasured confounder had opposing directions of effect on survival and the outcome. Overestimation was observed when the unmeasured confounder had the same direction of effect on survival and the outcome. Violation of the monotonicity assumption did not increase bias. The estimates were similar between the MSM approach and the sensitivity approach assessed at the sensitivity parameter of 1 (assuming no survival bias). In the illustrative example, high iron intake was found to be protective of AMD (adjusted OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.40-0.82) using complete case analysis via traditional logistic regression. The adjusted SACE odds ratio did not differ substantially from the complete case estimate, ranging from 0.54 to 0.58 for each of the SACE methods. CONCLUSIONS: On average, MSMs with weighting for exposure, missing data and survival produced biased estimates of the SACE in the presence of an unmeasured survival-outcome confounder. The direction and magnitude of effect of unmeasured survival-outcome confounders should be considered when assessing exposure-outcome associations in the presence of attrition due to death.

18.
BMJ Glob Health ; 4(6): e001801, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31798990

RESUMO

Introduction: Globally, an estimated 151 million children under 5 years of age still suffer from the adverse effects of stunting. We sought to develop and externally validate an early life predictive model that could be applied in infancy to accurately predict risk of stunting in preschool children. Methods: We conducted two separate prospective cohort studies in Vietnam that intensively monitored children from early pregnancy until 3 years of age. They included 1168 and 475 live-born infants for model development and validation, respectively. Logistic regression on child stunting at 3 years of age was performed for model development, and the predicted probabilities for stunting were used to evaluate the performance of this model in the validation data set. Results: Stunting prevalence was 16.9% (172 of 1015) in the development data set and 16.4% (70 of 426) in the validation data set. Key predictors included in the final model were paternal and maternal height, maternal weekly weight gain during pregnancy, infant sex, gestational age at birth, and infant weight and length at 6 months of age. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the validation data set was 0.85 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.80-0.90). Conclusion: This tool applied to infants at 6 months of age provided valid prediction of risk of stunting at 3 years of age using a readily available set of parental and infant measures. Further research is required to examine the impact of preventive measures introduced at 6 months of age on those identified as being at risk of growth faltering at 3 years of age.

19.
BMC Public Health ; 19(1): 1733, 2019 Dec 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31878916

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Adherence to a traditional Mediterranean diet has been associated with lower mortality and cardiovascular disease risk. The relative importance of diet compared to other lifestyle factors and effects of dietary patterns over time remains unknown. METHODS: We used the parametric G-formula to account for time-dependent confounding, in order to assess the relative importance of diet compared to other lifestyle factors and effects of dietary patterns over time. We included healthy Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study participants attending a visit during 1995-1999. Questionnaires assessed diet and physical activity at each of three study waves. Deaths were identified by linkage to national registries. We estimated mortality risk over approximately 14 years (1995-2011). RESULTS: Of 22,213 participants, 2163 (9.7%) died during 13.6 years median follow-up. Sustained high physical activity and adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet resulted in an estimated reduction in all-cause mortality of 1.82 per 100 people (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.03, 3.6). The population attributable fraction was 13% (95% CI: 4, 23%) for sustained high physical activity, 7% (95% CI: - 3, 17%) for sustained adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet and 18% (95% CI: 0, 36%) for their combination. CONCLUSIONS: A small reduction in mortality may be achieved by sustained elevated physical activity levels in healthy middle-aged adults, but there may be comparatively little gain from increasing adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet.


Assuntos
Dieta Mediterrânea/estatística & dados numéricos , Exercício Físico , Mortalidade/tendências , Idoso , Austrália/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Inquéritos e Questionários
20.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 19(1): 215, 2019 11 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31775647

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Antimalarial clinical efficacy studies for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria frequently encounter situations in which molecular genotyping is unable to discriminate between parasitic recurrence, either new infection or recrudescence. The current WHO guideline recommends excluding these individuals with indeterminate outcomes in a complete case (CC) analysis. Data from the four artemisinin-based combination (4ABC) trial was used to compare the performance of multiple imputation (MI) and inverse probability weighting (IPW) against the standard CC analysis for dealing with indeterminate recurrences. METHODS: 3369 study participants from the multicentre study (4ABC trial) with molecularly defined parasitic recurrence treated with three artemisinin-based combination therapies were used to represent a complete dataset. A set proportion of recurrent infections (10, 30 and 45%) were reclassified as missing using two mechanisms: a completely random selection (mechanism 1); missingness weakly dependent (mechanism 2a) and strongly dependent (mechanism 2b) on treatment and transmission intensity. The performance of MI, IPW and CC approaches in estimating the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) probability of parasitic recrudescence at day 28 was then compared. In addition, the maximum likelihood estimate of the cured proportion was presented for further comparison (analytical solution). Performance measures (bias, relative bias, standard error and coverage) were reported as an average from 1000 simulation runs. RESULTS: The CC analyses resulted in absolute underestimation of K-M probability of day 28 recrudescence by up to 1.7% and were associated with reduced precision and poor coverage across all the scenarios studied. Both MI and IPW method performed better (greater consistency and greater efficiency) compared to CC analysis. In the absence of censoring, the analytical solution provided the most consistent and accurate estimate of cured proportion compared to the CC analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The widely used CC approach underestimates antimalarial failure; IPW and MI procedures provided efficient and consistent estimates and should be considered when reporting the results of antimalarial clinical trials, especially in areas of high transmission, where the proportion of indeterminate outcomes could be large. The analytical solution estimating the cured proportion could provide an alternative approach, in scenarios with minimal censoring due to loss to follow-up or new infections.

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