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1.
BMJ ; 367: l5358, 2019 10 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31585960

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To map and assess prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: PubMed until November 2018 and hand searched references from eligible articles. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION: Studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model in COPD patients and focusing on any potential clinical outcome. RESULTS: The systematic search yielded 228 eligible articles, describing the development of 408 prognostic models, the external validation of 38 models, and the validation of 20 prognostic models derived for diseases other than COPD. The 408 prognostic models were developed in three clinical settings: outpatients (n=239; 59%), patients admitted to hospital (n=155; 38%), and patients attending the emergency department (n=14; 3%). Among the 408 prognostic models, the most prevalent endpoints were mortality (n=209; 51%), risk for acute exacerbation of COPD (n=42; 10%), and risk for readmission after the index hospital admission (n=36; 9%). Overall, the most commonly used predictors were age (n=166; 41%), forced expiratory volume in one second (n=85; 21%), sex (n=74; 18%), body mass index (n=66; 16%), and smoking (n=65; 16%). Of the 408 prognostic models, 100 (25%) were internally validated and 91 (23%) examined the calibration of the developed model. For 286 (70%) models a model presentation was not available, and only 56 (14%) models were presented through the full equation. Model discrimination using the C statistic was available for 311 (76%) models. 38 models were externally validated, but in only 12 of these was the validation performed by a fully independent team. Only seven prognostic models with an overall low risk of bias according to PROBAST were identified. These models were ADO, B-AE-D, B-AE-D-C, extended ADO, updated ADO, updated BODE, and a model developed by Bertens et al. A meta-analysis of C statistics was performed for 12 prognostic models, and the summary estimates ranged from 0.611 to 0.769. CONCLUSIONS: This study constitutes a detailed mapping and assessment of the prognostic models for outcome prediction in COPD patients. The findings indicate several methodological pitfalls in their development and a low rate of external validation. Future research should focus on the improvement of existing models through update and external validation, as well as the assessment of the safety, clinical effectiveness, and cost effectiveness of the application of these prognostic models in clinical practice through impact studies. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42017069247.

2.
Int J Epidemiol ; 2019 Sep 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31562522

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that education protects against cardiovascular disease. However, it is not known whether such an effect is independent of cognition. METHODS: We performed two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate the effect of education and cognition, respectively, on risk of CHD and ischaemic stroke. Additionally, we used multivariable MR to adjust for the effects of cognition and education in the respective analyses to measure the effects of these traits independently of each other. RESULTS: In unadjusted MR, there was evidence that education is causally associated with both CHD and stroke risk [CHD: odds ratio (OR) 0.65 per 1-standard deviation (SD; 3.6 years) increase in education; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.70, stroke: OR 0.77; 95% CI 0.69-0.86]. This effect persisted after adjusting for cognition in multivariable MR (CHD: OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.65-0.89, stroke OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.59-0.92). Cognition had an apparent effect on CHD risk in unadjusted MR (OR per 1-SD increase 0.80; 95% CI 0.74-0.85), however after adjusting for education this was no longer observed (OR 1.03; 95% CI 0.86-1.25). Cognition did not have any notable effect on the risk of developing ischaemic stroke, with (OR 0.97; 95% CI 0.87-1.08) or without adjustment for education (OR 1.04; 95% CI 0.79-1.36). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence to support that education protects against CHD and ischaemic stroke risk independently of cognition, but does not provide evidence to support that cognition protects against CHD and stroke risk independently of education. These findings could have implications for education and health policy.

3.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 3653, 2019 Aug 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31409800

RESUMO

Urinary sodium and potassium excretion are associated with blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The exact biological link between these traits is yet to be elucidated. Here, we identify 50 loci for sodium and 13 for potassium excretion in a large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) on urinary sodium and potassium excretion using data from 446,237 individuals of European descent from the UK Biobank study. We extensively interrogate the results using multiple analyses such as Mendelian randomization, functional assessment, co localization, genetic risk score, and pathway analyses. We identify a shared genetic component between urinary sodium and potassium expression and cardiovascular traits. Ingenuity pathway analysis shows that urinary sodium and potassium excretion loci are over-represented in behavioural response to stimuli. Our study highlights pathways that are shared between urinary sodium and potassium excretion and cardiovascular traits.

4.
J Alzheimers Dis ; 70(2): 553-562, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31256117

RESUMO

Elevated cortisol as a measure of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal-axis hyperactivity has emerged as a predictor of clinical progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD), in conjunction with amyloid-ß (Aß) abnormalities. Yet factors exist which have the propensity to delay AD symptomatic expression in the face of an AD-type biomarker-based pathological profile. This study sought to determine whether abnormal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Aß and elevated cortisol levels are associated with clinical transition to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and AD in cognitively normal (CN) individuals, and if this association is modified by reserve proxies. Data from 91 CN individuals participating in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) with available morning CSF cortisol and Aß42 were evaluated. Reserve was modelled as a latent composite score of standardized intracranial volume and lifetime experience proxies. Cox regressions were used to test associations between baseline CSF cortisol/Aß42, reserve score and AD progression; adjusting for age, sex, apolipoprotein E genotype, and depressive symptoms. Individuals with elevated cortisol + abnormal Aß42 levels at baseline showed highest risk of clinical progression. After a median of 84 months follow-up, significant cortisol/Aß/ reserve interaction for clinical progression was noted (adjusted HR = 0.15, p < 0.001), suggesting a moderating effect of reserve on the association between cortisol/Aß+ and clinical progression. Our findings indicate that cortisol hypersecretion accelerates clinical progression in CN individuals presenting with pathological Aß42. High reserve reduces the associated AD progression risk in these high-risk individuals.

5.
Int J Cancer ; 2019 Jul 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31319002

RESUMO

Several studies have reported associations of hypertension with cancer, but not all results were conclusive. We examined the association of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure with the development of incident cancer at all anatomical sites in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by EPIC-participating center and age at recruitment, and adjusted for sex, education, smoking, body mass index, physical activity, diabetes and dietary (in women also reproductive) factors. The study included 307,318 men and women, with an average follow-up of 13.7 (standard deviation 4.4) years and 39,298 incident cancers. We confirmed the expected positive association with renal cell carcinoma: HR = 1.12 (1.08-1.17) per 10 mm Hg higher SBP and HR = 1.23 (1.14-1.32) for DBP. We additionally found positive associations for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC): HR = 1.16 (1.07-1.26) (SBP), HR = 1.31 (1.13-1.51) (DBP), weaker for head and neck cancers: HR = 1.08 (1.04-1.12) (SBP), HR = 1.09 (1.01-1.17) (DBP) and, similarly, for skin SCC, colon cancer, postmenopausal breast cancer and uterine adenocarcinoma (AC), but not for esophageal AC, lung SCC, lung AC or uterine endometroid cancer. We observed weak inverse associations of SBP with cervical SCC: HR = 0.91 (0.82-1.00) and lymphomas: HR = 0.97 (0.93-1.00). There were no consistent associations with cancers in other locations. Our results are largely compatible with published studies and support weak associations of blood pressure with cancers in specific locations and morphologies.

6.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 8(15): e012994, 2019 Aug 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31310728

RESUMO

Background Systemic iron status has been implicated in atherosclerosis and thrombosis. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of genetically determined iron status on carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, and venous thromboembolism using Mendelian randomization. Methods and Results Genetic instrumental variables for iron status were selected from a genome-wide meta-analysis of 48 972 subjects. Genetic association estimates for carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque were obtained using data from 71 128 and 48 434 participants, respectively, and estimates for venous thromboembolism were obtained using data from a study incorporating 7507 cases and 52 632 controls. Conventional 2-sample summary data Mendelian randomization was performed for the main analysis. Higher genetically determined iron status was associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolism. Odds ratios per SD increase in biomarker levels were 1.37 (95% CI 1.14-1.66) for serum iron, 1.25 (1.09-1.43) for transferrin saturation, 1.92 (1.28-2.88) for ferritin, and 0.76 (0.63-0.92) for serum transferrin (with higher transferrin levels representing lower iron status). In contrast, higher iron status was associated with lower risk of carotid plaque. Corresponding odds ratios were 0.85 (0.73-0.99) for serum iron and 0.89 (0.80-1.00) for transferrin saturation, with concordant trends for serum transferrin and ferritin that did not reach statistical significance. There was no Mendelian randomization evidence of an effect of iron status on carotid intima-media thickness. Conclusions These findings support previous work to suggest that higher genetically determined iron status is protective against some forms of atherosclerotic disease but increases the risk of thrombosis related to stasis of blood.

7.
PLoS Med ; 16(6): e1002833, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31220083

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Iron is integral to many physiological processes, and variations in its levels, even within the normal range, can have implications for health. The objective of this study was to explore the broad clinical effects of varying iron status. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data obtained from 48,972 European individuals (55% female) across 19 cohorts in the Genetics of Iron Status Consortium were used to identify 3 genetic variants (rs1800562 and rs1799945 in the hemochromatosis gene [HFE] and rs855791 in the transmembrane protease serine 6 gene [TMPRSS6]) that associate with increased serum iron, ferritin, and transferrin saturation and decreased transferrin levels, thus serving as instruments for systemic iron status. Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of these instruments was performed on 424,439 European individuals (54% female) in the UK Biobank who were aged 40-69 years when recruited from 2006 to 2010, with their genetic data linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) from April, 1995 to March, 2016. Two-sample summary data mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to investigate the effect of varying iron status on outcomes across the human phenome. MR-PheWAS analysis for the 3 iron status genetic instruments was performed separately and then pooled by meta-analysis. Correction was made for testing of multiple correlated phenotypes using a 5% false discovery rate (FDR) threshold. Heterogeneity between MR estimates for different instruments was used to indicate possible bias due to effects of the genetic variants through pathways unrelated to iron status. There were 904 distinct phenotypes included in the MR-PheWAS analyses. After correcting for multiple testing, the 3 genetic instruments for systemic iron status demonstrated consistent evidence of a causal effect of higher iron status on decreasing risk of traits related to anemia (iron deficiency anemia: odds ratio [OR] scaled to a standard deviation [SD] increase in genetically determined serum iron levels 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.81, P = 4 × 10-8) and hypercholesterolemia (hypercholesterolemia: OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.83-0.93, P = 2 × 10-5) and increasing risk of traits related to infection of the skin and related structures (cellulitis and abscess of the leg: OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.10-1.42, P = 6 × 10-4). The main limitations of this study relate to possible bias from pleiotropic effects of the considered genetic variants and misclassification of diagnoses in the HES data. Furthermore, this work only investigated participants with European ancestry, and the findings may not be applicable to other ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings offer novel, to our knowledge, insight into previously unreported effects of iron status, highlighting a potential protective effect of higher iron status on hypercholesterolemia and a detrimental role on risk of skin and skin structure infections. Given the modifiable and variable nature of iron status, these findings warrant further investigation.

8.
Circulation ; 140(4): 270-279, 2019 Jul 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31234639

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Drug effects can be investigated through natural variation in the genes for their protein targets. The present study aimed to use this approach to explore the potential side effects and repurposing potential of antihypertensive drugs, which are among the most commonly used medications worldwide. METHODS: Genetic proxies for the effect of antihypertensive drug classes were identified as variants in the genes for the corresponding targets that associated with systolic blood pressure at genome-wide significance. Mendelian randomization estimates for drug effects on coronary heart disease and stroke risk were compared with randomized, controlled trial results. A phenome-wide association study in the UK Biobank was performed to identify potential side effects and repurposing opportunities, with findings investigated in the Vanderbilt University biobank (BioVU) and in observational analysis of the UK Biobank. RESULTS: Suitable genetic proxies for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, ß-blockers, and calcium channel blockers (CCBs) were identified. Mendelian randomization estimates for their effect on coronary heart disease and stroke risk, respectively, were comparable to results from randomized, controlled trials against placebo. A phenome-wide association study in the UK Biobank identified an association of the CCB standardized genetic risk score with increased risk of diverticulosis (odds ratio, 1.02 per standard deviation increase; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04), with a consistent estimate found in BioVU (odds ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02). Cox regression analysis of drug use in the UK Biobank suggested that this association was specific to nondihydropyridine CCBs (hazard ratio 1.49 considering thiazide diuretic agents as a comparator; 95% CI, 1.04-2.14) but not dihydropyridine CCBs (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.83-1.32). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variants can be used to explore the efficacy and side effects of antihypertensive medications. The identified potential effect of nondihydropyridine CCBs on diverticulosis risk could have clinical implications and warrants further investigation.

9.
BMJ Open ; 9(5): e027666, 2019 May 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31122993

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) deficiency and investigate its association with mortality in children with acute or critical conditions. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, OVID, Google Scholar and the Cochrane Library searched until 21 December 2018. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies of children hospitalised with acute or critical conditions who had blood 25(OH)D levels measured. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We obtained pooled prevalence estimates of 25(OH)D deficiency and ORs for mortality. We calculated 95% CI and prediction intervals and investigated heterogeneity and evidence of small-study effects. RESULTS: Fifty-two studies were included. Of 7434 children, 3473 (47.0%) were 25(OH)D deficient (<50 nmol/L). The pooled prevalence estimate of 25(OH)D deficiency was 54.6% (95% CI 48.5% to 60.6%, I2=95.3%, p<0.0001). Prevalence was similar after excluding smaller studies (51.5%). In children with sepsis (18 studies, 889 total individuals) prevalence was 64.0% (95% CI 52.0% to 74.4%, I2=89.3%, p<0.0001) and 48.7% (95% CI 38.2% to 59.3%; I2=94.3%, p<0.0001) in those with respiratory tract infections (RTI) (25 studies, 2699 total individuals). Overall, meta-analysis of mortality (18 cohort studies, 2463 total individuals) showed increased risk of death in 25(OH)D deficient children (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.64, p=0.002, I2=25.7%, p=0.153). Four (22.0%) of the 18 studies statistically adjusted for confounders. There were insufficient studies to meta-analyse sepsis and RTI-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that 25(OH)D deficiency in acute and critically ill children is high and associated with increased mortality. Small-study effects, reverse causation and other biases may have confounded results. Larger, carefully designed studies in homogeneous populations with confounder adjustment are needed to clarify the association between 25(OH)D levels with mortality and other outcomes. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016050638.

10.
BMJ ; 365: l1855, 2019 05 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31122926

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the role of body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour in explaining the effect of education on the risk of cardiovascular disease outcomes. DESIGN: Mendelian randomisation study. SETTING: UK Biobank and international genome-wide association study data. PARTICIPANTS: Predominantly participants of European ancestry. EXPOSURE: Educational attainment, BMI, systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour in observational analysis, and randomly allocated genetic variants to instrument these traits in mendelian randomisation. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURE: The risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular disease (all subtypes; all measured in odds ratio), and the degree to which this is mediated through BMI, systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour respectively. RESULTS: Each additional standard deviation of education (3.6 years) was associated with a 13% lower risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.89) in observational analysis and a 37% lower risk (0.63, 0.60 to 0.67) in mendelian randomisation analysis. As a proportion of the total risk reduction, BMI was estimated to mediate 15% (95% confidence interval 13% to 17%) and 18% (14% to 23%) in the observational and mendelian randomisation estimates, respectively. Corresponding estimates were 11% (9% to 13%) and 21% (15% to 27%) for systolic blood pressure and 19% (15% to 22%) and 34% (17% to 50%) for smoking behaviour. All three risk factors combined were estimated to mediate 42% (36% to 48%) and 36% (5% to 68%) of the effect of education on coronary heart disease in observational and mendelian randomisation analyses, respectively. Similar results were obtained when investigating the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: BMI, systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour mediate a substantial proportion of the protective effect of education on the risk of cardiovascular outcomes and intervening on these would lead to reductions in cases of cardiovascular disease attributable to lower levels of education. However, more than half of the protective effect of education remains unexplained and requires further investigation.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Escolaridade , Adulto , Idoso , Pressão Sanguínea , Índice de Massa Corporal , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Análise da Randomização Mendeliana , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Razão de Chances , Fatores de Risco , Fumar/efeitos adversos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Reino Unido
11.
Eur Heart J ; 40(34): 2883-2896, 2019 Sep 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31102408

RESUMO

AIMS: To characterize serum metabolic signatures associated with atherosclerosis in the coronary or carotid arteries and subsequently their association with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: We used untargeted one-dimensional (1D) serum metabolic profiling by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H NMR) among 3867 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), with replication among 3569 participants from the Rotterdam and LOLIPOP studies. Atherosclerosis was assessed by coronary artery calcium (CAC) and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT). We used multivariable linear regression to evaluate associations between NMR features and atherosclerosis accounting for multiplicity of comparisons. We then examined associations between metabolites associated with atherosclerosis and incident CVD available in MESA and Rotterdam and explored molecular networks through bioinformatics analyses. Overall, 30 1H NMR measured metabolites were associated with CAC and/or IMT, P = 1.3 × 10-14 to 1.0 × 10-6 (discovery) and P = 5.6 × 10-10 to 1.1 × 10-2 (replication). These associations were substantially attenuated after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Metabolites associated with atherosclerosis revealed disturbances in lipid and carbohydrate metabolism, branched chain, and aromatic amino acid metabolism, as well as oxidative stress and inflammatory pathways. Analyses of incident CVD events showed inverse associations with creatine, creatinine, and phenylalanine, and direct associations with mannose, acetaminophen-glucuronide, and lactate as well as apolipoprotein B (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Metabolites associated with atherosclerosis were largely consistent between the two vascular beds (coronary and carotid arteries) and predominantly tag pathways that overlap with the known cardiovascular risk factors. We present an integrated systems network that highlights a series of inter-connected pathways underlying atherosclerosis.

12.
Circulation ; 139(25): 2835-2845, 2019 Jun 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31006335

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the relevance of animal foods to the pathogenesis of ischemic heart disease (IHD). We examined meat, fish, dairy products, and eggs and risk for IHD in the pan-European EPIC cohort (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition). METHODS: In this prospective study of 409 885 men and women in 9 European countries, diet was assessed with validated questionnaires and calibrated with 24-hour recalls. Lipids and blood pressure were measured in a subsample. During a mean of 12.6 years of follow-up, 7198 participants had a myocardial infarction or died of IHD. The relationships of animal foods with risk were examined with Cox regression with adjustment for other animal foods and relevant covariates. RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR) for IHD was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.06-1.33) for a 100-g/d increment in intake of red and processed meat, and this remained significant after exclusion of the first 4 years of follow-up (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.09-1.42]). Risk was inversely associated with intakes of yogurt (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.89-0.98] per 100-g/d increment), cheese (HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.98] per 30-g/d increment), and eggs (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99] per 20-g/d increment); the associations with yogurt and eggs were attenuated and nonsignificant after exclusion of the first 4 years of follow-up. Risk was not significantly associated with intakes of poultry, fish, or milk. In analyses modeling dietary substitutions, replacement of 100 kcal/d from red and processed meat with 100 kcal/d from fatty fish, yogurt, cheese, or eggs was associated with ≈20% lower risk of IHD. Consumption of red and processed meat was positively associated with serum non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration and systolic blood pressure, and consumption of cheese was inversely associated with serum non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: Risk for IHD was positively associated with consumption of red and processed meat and inversely associated with consumption of yogurt, cheese, and eggs, although the associations with yogurt and eggs may be influenced by reverse causation bias. It is not clear whether the associations with red and processed meat and cheese reflect causality, but they were consistent with the associations of these foods with plasma non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and for red and processed meat with systolic blood pressure, which could mediate such effects.

13.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 8(9): e010810, 2019 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31017036

RESUMO

Background Identifying associations between serum metabolites and visceral adipose tissue ( VAT ) could provide novel biomarkers of VAT and insights into the pathogenesis of obesity-related diseases. We aimed to discover and replicate metabolites reflecting pathways related to VAT . Methods and Results Associations between fasting serum metabolites and VAT area (by computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging) were assessed with cross-sectional linear regression of individual-level data from participants in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis; discovery, N=1103) and the NEO (Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity) study (replication, N=2537). Untargeted 1H nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics profiling of serum was performed in MESA, and metabolites were replicated in the NEO study using targeted 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. A total of 30 590 metabolomic spectral variables were evaluated. After adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, physical activity, glucose/lipid-lowering medication, and body mass index, 2104 variables representing 24 nonlipid and 49 lipid/lipoprotein subclass metabolites remained significantly associated with VAT ( P=4.88×10-20-1.16×10-3). These included conventional metabolites, amino acids, acetylglycoproteins, intermediates of glucose and hepatic metabolism, organic acids, and subclasses of apolipoproteins, cholesterol, phospholipids, and triglycerides. Metabolites mapped to 31 biochemical pathways, including amino acid substrate use/metabolism and glycolysis/gluconeogenesis. In the replication cohort, acetylglycoproteins, branched-chain amino acids, lactate, glutamine (inversely), and atherogenic lipids remained associated with VAT ( P=1.90×10-35-8.46×10-7), with most associations remaining after additional adjustment for surrogates of VAT (glucose level, waist circumference, and serum triglycerides), reflecting novel independent associations. Conclusions We identified and replicated a metabolite panel associated with VAT in 2 community-based cohorts. These findings persisted after adjustment for body mass index and appear to define a metabolic signature of visceral adiposity.

14.
Am J Hum Genet ; 104(1): 112-138, 2019 Jan 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30595373

RESUMO

Mitochondria (MT), the major site of cellular energy production, are under dual genetic control by 37 mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes and numerous nuclear genes (MT-nDNA). In the CHARGEmtDNA+ Consortium, we studied genetic associations of mtDNA and MT-nDNA associations with body mass index (BMI), waist-hip-ratio (WHR), glucose, insulin, HOMA-B, HOMA-IR, and HbA1c. This 45-cohort collaboration comprised 70,775 (insulin) to 170,202 (BMI) pan-ancestry individuals. Validation and imputation of mtDNA variants was followed by single-variant and gene-based association testing. We report two significant common variants, one in MT-ATP6 associated (p ≤ 5E-04) with WHR and one in the D-loop with glucose. Five rare variants in MT-ATP6, MT-ND5, and MT-ND6 associated with BMI, WHR, or insulin. Gene-based meta-analysis identified MT-ND3 associated with BMI (p ≤ 1E-03). We considered 2,282 MT-nDNA candidate gene associations compiled from online summary results for our traits (20 unique studies with 31 dataset consortia's genome-wide associations [GWASs]). Of these, 109 genes associated (p ≤ 1E-06) with at least 1 of our 7 traits. We assessed regulatory features of variants in the 109 genes, cis- and trans-gene expression regulation, and performed enrichment and protein-protein interactions analyses. Of the identified mtDNA and MT-nDNA genes, 79 associated with adipose measures, 49 with glucose/insulin, 13 with risk for type 2 diabetes, and 18 with cardiovascular disease, indicating for pleiotropic effects with health implications. Additionally, 21 genes related to cholesterol, suggesting additional important roles for the genes identified. Our results suggest that mtDNA and MT-nDNA genes and variants reported make important contributions to glucose and insulin metabolism, adipocyte regulation, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

15.
Int J Cancer ; 144(2): 240-250, 2019 01 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29943826

RESUMO

The epidemiological evidence regarding the association of coffee and tea consumption with prostate cancer risk is inconclusive, and few cohort studies have assessed these associations by disease stage and grade. We examined the associations of coffee (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) and tea intake with prostate cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Among 142,196 men, 7,036 incident prostate cancer cases were diagnosed over 14 years of follow-up. Data on coffee and tea consumption were collected through validated country-specific food questionnaires at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Models were stratified by center and age, and adjusted for anthropometric, lifestyle and dietary factors. Median coffee and tea intake were 375 and 106 mL/day, respectively, but large variations existed by country. Comparing the highest (median of 855 mL/day) versus lowest (median of 103 mL/day) consumers of coffee and tea (450 vs. 12 mL/day) the HRs were 1.02 (95% CI, 0.94-1.09) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.90-1.07) for risk of total prostate cancer and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.79-1.21) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.70-1.13) for risk of fatal disease, respectively. No evidence of association was seen for consumption of total, caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee or tea and risk of total prostate cancer or cancer by stage, grade or fatality in this large cohort. Further investigations are needed to clarify whether an association exists by different preparations or by concentrations and constituents of these beverages.


Assuntos
Café , Neoplasias da Próstata/epidemiologia , Chá , Adulto , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Inquéritos sobre Dietas , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Fatores de Risco
16.
Breast Cancer Res ; 20(1): 147, 2018 Dec 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30509329

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Few published breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models consider the heterogeneity of predictor variables between estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumors. Using data from two large cohorts, we examined whether modeling this heterogeneity could improve prediction. METHODS: We built two models, for ER+ (ModelER+) and ER- tumors (ModelER-), respectively, in 281,330 women (51% postmenopausal at recruitment) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (the agreement between predicted and observed tumor risks) were assessed both internally and externally in 82,319 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative study. We performed decision curve analysis to compare ModelER+ and the Gail model (ModelGail) regarding their applicability in risk assessment for chemoprevention. RESULTS: Parity, number of full-term pregnancies, age at first full-term pregnancy and body height were only associated with ER+ tumors. Menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, hormone replacement therapy, postmenopausal body mass index, and alcohol intake were homogeneously associated with ER+ and ER- tumors. Internal validation yielded a C-statistic of 0.64 for ModelER+ and 0.59 for ModelER-. External validation reduced the C-statistic of ModelER+ (0.59) and ModelGail (0.57). In external evaluation of calibration, ModelER+ outperformed the ModelGail: the former led to a 9% overestimation of the risk of ER+ tumors, while the latter yielded a 22% underestimation of the overall BC risk. Compared with the treat-all strategy, ModelER+ produced equal or higher net benefits irrespective of the benefit-to-harm ratio of chemoprevention, while ModelGail did not produce higher net benefits unless the benefit-to-harm ratio was below 50. The clinical applicability, i.e. the area defined by the net benefit curve and the treat-all and treat-none strategies, was 12.7 × 10- 6 for ModelER+ and 3.0 × 10- 6 for ModelGail. CONCLUSIONS: Modeling heterogeneous epidemiological risk factors might yield little improvement in BC risk prediction. Nevertheless, a model specifically predictive of ER+ tumor risk could be more applicable than an omnibus model in risk assessment for chemoprevention.

17.
Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol ; 38(12): 2862-2869, 2018 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30571169

RESUMO

Objective- Cardiovascular disease, including coronary artery disease (CAD) and ischemic stroke, is the leading cause of death worldwide. This Mendelian randomization study uses genetic variants as instruments to investigate whether there is a causal effect of genetically determined platelet count on CAD and ischemic stroke risk. Approach and Results- A genome-wide association study of 166 066 subjects was used to identify instruments and genetic association estimates for platelet count. Genetic association estimates for CAD and ischemic stroke were obtained from genome-wide association studies, including 60 801 CAD cases and 123 504 controls, and 60 341 ischemic stroke cases and 454 450 controls, respectively. The inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis of ratio method Mendelian randomization estimates was the main method used to obtain estimates for the causal effect of genetically determined platelet count on risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We found no significant Mendelian randomization effect of genetically determined platelet count on risk of CAD (odds ratio of CAD per SD unit increase in genetically determined platelet count, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.98-1.04; P=0.60). However, higher genetically determined platelet count was causally associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.11; P<1×10-5), including all major ischemic stroke subtypes. Similar results were obtained in sensitivity analyses more robust to the inclusion of pleiotropic genetic variants. Conclusions- This Mendelian randomization study found evidence that higher genetically determined platelet count is causally associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke.


Assuntos
Plaquetas , Isquemia Encefálica/genética , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/genética , Isquemia Encefálica/sangue , Isquemia Encefálica/diagnóstico , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/sangue , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/diagnóstico , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/genética , Feminino , Estudos de Associação Genética , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Humanos , Masculino , Análise da Randomização Mendeliana , Infarto do Miocárdio/sangue , Infarto do Miocárdio/diagnóstico , Infarto do Miocárdio/genética , Fenótipo , Contagem de Plaquetas , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/sangue , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/diagnóstico
18.
Stroke ; 49(12): 2815-2821, 2018 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30571402

RESUMO

Background and Purpose- Both iron deficiency and excess have been associated with stroke risk in observational studies. However, such associations may be attributable to confounding from environmental factors. This study uses the Mendelian randomization technique to overcome these limitations by investigating the association between genetic variants related to iron status and stroke risk. Methods- A study of 48 972 subjects performed by the Genetics of Iron Status consortium identified genetic variants with concordant relations to 4 biomarkers of iron status (serum iron, transferrin saturation, ferritin, and transferrin) that supported their use as instruments for overall iron status. Genetic estimates from the MEGASTROKE consortium were used to investigate the association between the same genetic variants and stroke risk. The 2-sample ratio method Mendelian randomization approach was used for the main analysis, with the MR-Egger and weighted median techniques used in sensitivity analyses. Results- The main results, reported as odds ratio (OR) of stroke per SD unit increase in genetically determined iron status biomarker, showed a detrimental effect of increased iron status on stroke risk (serum iron OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.14; [log-transformed] ferritin OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.02-1.36; and transferrin saturation OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.11). A higher transferrin, indicative of lower iron status, was also associated with decreased stroke risk (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.86-0.99). Examining ischemic stroke subtypes, we found the detrimental effect of iron status to be driven by cardioembolic stroke. These results were supported in statistical sensitivity analyses more robust to the inclusion of pleiotropic variants. Conclusions- This study provides Mendelian randomization evidence that higher iron status is associated with increased stroke risk and, in particular, cardioembolic stroke. Further work is required to investigate the underlying mechanism and whether this can be targeted in preventative strategies.

19.
Br J Cancer ; 119(8): 1036-1039, 2018 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30323197

RESUMO

Colorectal cancer (CRC) risk prediction models could be used to risk-stratify the population to provide individually tailored screening provision. Using participants from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study, we evaluated whether the addition of a genetic risk score (GRS) could improve the performance of two previously validated models. Inclusion of the GRS did not appreciably improve discrimination of either model, and led to substantial miscalibration. Following recalibration the discrimination did not change, but good calibration for models incorporating the GRS was recovered. Comparing predictions between models with and without the GRS, 5% of participants or fewer changed their absolute risk by ±0.3% or more in either model. In summary, addition of a GRS did not meaningfully improve the performance of validated CRC-risk prediction models. At present, provision of genetic information is not useful for risk stratification for CRC.

20.
Stroke ; 49(11): 2761-2763, 2018 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30355187

RESUMO

Background and Purpose- FXI (factor XI) is involved in thrombus propagation and stabilization. It is unknown whether lower FXI levels have a protective effect on risk of ischemic stroke (IS) or myocardial infarction. This study investigated the effect of genetically determined FXI levels on risk of IS, myocardial infarction, and intracerebral hemorrhage. Methods- Two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis was performed. Instruments and genetic association estimates for FXI levels were obtained from a genome-wide association study of 16 169 individuals. Genetic association estimates for IS and its etiological subtypes were obtained from a study of 16 851 cases and 32 473 controls. For myocardial infarction, estimates were obtained from a study of 43 676 cases and 123 504 controls and for intracerebral hemorrhage from a study of 1545 cases and 1481 controls. Results- After applying a Bonferroni correction for multiple testing, the Mendelian randomization analysis supported a causal effect of higher, genetically determined FXI levels on risk of any IS (odds ratio [OR] per 1-unit increase in natural logarithm-transformed FXI levels, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.68-3.84; P=1×10-5) but not myocardial infarction (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.76-1.34; P=0.94) or intracerebral hemorrhage (OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 0.44-7.38; P=0.41). Examining IS subtypes, the main results supported an effect of higher, genetically determined FXI levels on risk of cardioembolism (OR, 4.23; 95% CI, 1.94-9.19; P=3×10-4) and IS of undetermined cause (OR, 3.44; 95% CI, 1.79-6.60; P=2×10-4) but not large artery atherosclerosis (OR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.15-6.45; P=0.02) or small artery occlusion (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.50-2.82; P=0.69). However, the statistically significant result for IS of undetermined cause was not replicated in all sensitivity analyses. Conclusions- We find Mendelian randomization evidence supporting FXI as a possible target to reduce risk of the cardioembolic subtype of IS.

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