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1.
PLoS Med ; 18(10): e1003818, 2021 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34665815

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Modelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY). Compared to existing levels of treatment, scaling up screening and treatment to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan averts 5.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.80 to 8.22) million DALYs and 333,000 (219,000 to 509,000) HCV-related deaths over 2018 to 2030. If HCV testing is partially integrated, this scale-up requires an investment of US$1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) billion but will result in US$1.30 (0.94 to 1.72) billion in improved economic productivity over 2018 to 2030. This elimination strategy is highly cost-effective (ICER = US$29 per DALY averted) by 2030, with it becoming cost-saving by 2031 and having a net economic benefit of US$9.10 (95% UI 6.54 to 11.99) billion by 2050. Limitations include uncertainty around what level of integration is possible within existing primary healthcare services as well as a lack of Pakistan-specific data on disease-related healthcare management costs or productivity losses due to HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Investment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan.

2.
J Int AIDS Soc ; 24(10): e25817, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34661964

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: People who inject drugs (PWID) in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, have a high prevalence of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). While needle and syringe programmes (NSP), opioid agonist therapy (OAT) and anti-retroviral therapy (ART) are available in Tanzania, their coverage is sub-optimal. We assess the impact of existing and scaled up harm reduction (HR) interventions on HIV and HCV transmission among PWID in Dar es Salaam. METHODS: An HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID in Tanzania was calibrated to data over 2006-2018 on HIV (∼30% and ∼67% prevalence in males and females in 2011) and HCV prevalence (∼16% in 2017), numbers on HR interventions (5254 ever on OAT in 2018, 766-1479 accessing NSP in 2017) and ART coverage (63.1% in 2015). We evaluated the impact of existing interventions in 2019 and impact by 2030 of scaling-up the coverage of OAT (to 50% of PWID), NSP (75%, both combined termed "full HR") and ART (81% with 90% virally suppressed) from 2019, reducing sexual HIV transmission by 50%, and/or HCV-treating 10% of PWID infected with HCV annually. RESULTS: The model projects HIV and HCV prevalence of 19.0% (95% credibility interval: 16.4-21.2%) and 41.0% (24.4-49.0%) in 2019, respectively. For HIV, 24.6% (13.6-32.6%) and 70.3% (59.3-77.1%) of incident infections among male and female PWID are sexually transmitted, respectively. Due to their low coverage (22.8% for OAT, 16.3% for NSP in 2019), OAT and NSP averted 20.4% (12.9-24.7%) of HIV infections and 21.7% (17.0-25.2%) of HCV infections in 2019. Existing ART (68.5% coverage by 2019) averted 48.1% (29.7-64.3%) of HIV infections in 2019. Scaling up to full HR will reduce HIV and HCV incidence by 62.6% (52.5-74.0%) and 81.4% (56.7-81.4%), respectively, over 2019-2030; scaled up ART alongside full HR will decrease HIV incidence by 66.8% (55.6-77.5%), increasing to 81.5% (73.7-87.5%) when sexual risk is also reduced. HCV-treatment alongside full HR will decrease HCV incidence by 92.4% (80.7-95.8%) by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Combination interventions, including sexual risk reduction and HCV treatment, are needed to eliminate HCV and HIV among PWID in Tanzania.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV , Hepatite C , Preparações Farmacêuticas , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Hepacivirus , Hepatite C/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Hepatite C/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Masculino , Prevalência , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/complicações , Tanzânia/epidemiologia
3.
Sex Transm Infect ; 2021 Oct 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34702782

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To examine legal and social determinants of violence, anxiety/depression among sex workers. METHODS: A participatory prospective cohort study among women (inclusive of transgender) ≥18 years, selling sex in the last 3 months in London between 2018 and 2019. We used logistic generalised estimating equation models to measure associations between structural factors on recent (6 months) violence from clients or others (local residents, strangers), depression/anxiety (Patient Health Questionnaire-4). RESULTS: 197 sex workers were recruited (96% cisgender-women; 46% street-based; 54% off-street) and 60% completed a follow-up questionnaire. Street-based sex workers experienced greater inequalities compared with off-street in relation to recent violence from clients (73% vs 36%); police (42% vs 7%); intimate partner violence (IPV) (56% vs 18%) and others (67% vs 17%), as well as homelessness (65% vs 7%) and recent law enforcement (87% vs 9%). Prevalence of any STI was 17.5% (17/97). For street-based sex workers, recent arrest was associated with violence from others (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.77; 95% CI 1.11 to 6.94) and displacement by police was associated with client violence (aOR 4.35; 95% CI 1.36 to 13.90). Financial difficulties were also associated with client violence (aOR 4.66; 95% CI 1.64 to 13.24). Disability (aOR 3.85; 95% CI 1.49 to 9.95) and client violence (aOR 2.55; 95% CI 1.10 to 5.91) were associated with anxiety/depression. For off-street sex workers, financial difficulties (aOR 3.66; 95% CI 1.64 to 8.18), unstable residency (aOR 3.19; 95% CI 1.36 to 7.49), IPV (aOR 3.77; 95% CI 1.30 to 11.00) and alcohol/drug use were associated with client violence (aOR 3.16; 95% CI 1.26 to 7.92), while always screening and refusing clients was protective (aOR 0.36; 95% CI 0.15 to 0.87). Disability (aOR 5.83; 95% CI 2.34 to 14.51), unmet mental health needs (aOR 3.08; 95% CI 1.15 to 8.23) and past eviction (aOR 3.99; 95% CI 1.23 to 12.92) were associated with anxiety/depression. CONCLUSIONS: Violence, anxiety/depression are linked to poverty, unstable housing and police enforcement. We need to modify laws to allow sex workers to work safely and increase availability of housing and mental health services.

4.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 8(9): ofab457, 2021 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34584901

RESUMO

Background: Pakistan's explosive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic among people who inject drugs (PWID) varies widely across cities. We evaluated possible drivers for these variations. Methods: Multivariable regression analyses were undertaken using data from 5 national surveys among PWID (n = 18 467; 2005-2017) to determine risk factors associated with variations in city-level HIV prevalence. A dynamic HIV model was used to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF; proportion of HIV infections prevented over 10 years when that risk factor is removed) of these risk factors to HIV transmission and impact on HIV incidence of reducing their prevalence. Results: Regression analyses suggested that city-level HIV prevalence is strongly associated with the prevalence of using professional injectors at last injection, heroin use in last month, and injecting ≥4 times per day. Through calibrating a model to these associations, we estimate that the 10-year PAFs of using professional injectors, heroin use, and frequent injecting are 45.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 4.3%-79.7%), 45.9% (95% UI, 8.1%-78.4%), and 22.2% (95% UI, 2.0%-58.4%), respectively. Reducing to lowest city-level prevalences of using professional injectors (2.8%; median 89.9% reduction), heroin use (0.9%; median 91.2% reduction), and frequent injecting (0.1%; median 91.8% reduction) in 2020 reduces overall HIV incidence by 52.7% (95% UI, 6.1%-82.0%), 53.0% (95% UI, 11.3%-80.2%), and 28.1% (95% UI, 2.7%-66.6%), respectively, over 10 years. Conclusions: Interventions should focus on these risk factors to control Pakistan's explosive HIV epidemic among PWID, including a concomitant expansion of high-coverage needle/syringe provision, opioid substitution therapy, and antiretroviral therapy.

5.
Int J Drug Policy ; 96: 103394, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34412938

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In Irish prisons, there is a high proportion of people who inject drugs (PWID; 26%) and a high prevalence of HCV (16%), making prison a high priority setting for HCV testing and treatment. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a mass HCV screening intervention in Mountjoy Prison, Dublin, compared to the standard-of-care of intermittent screening on committal. METHODS: Primary cost data was collected from the intervention using an overall provider perspective. Standard-of-care (SOC) costs were estimated through interview. All costs were inflated to 2020 Euros. An HCV transmission and disease progression model among incarcerated and community PWID and ex-injectors was calibrated to the Dublin HCV epidemic, allowing inclusion of population-level health benefits. The model used intervention data, suggesting 419 individuals were screened, 50 HCV infections diagnosed and 32 individuals initiated treatment, to project the resulting costs and health benefits (quality adjusted life years or QALYs) over 50 years with 5% discounting. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER), cost per QALY gained, was estimated for the screening intervention compared to the standard-of-care. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) determined the probability that the intervention was cost-effective compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000/QALY as used in Ireland. The ICER for 1- or 3-yearly mass screening in all Dublin prisons was also calculated. RESULTS: The total direct costs of the intervention (not including treatment drug costs) was €82,392, with most costs being due to staff (43%) and overhead or management costs (38%). Despite having little epidemiological impact due to the small numbers treated, over 50 years the incremental cost of the intervention was €36,592 and 3.8 QALYs were gained, giving a mean ICER of €9,552/QALY. The majority (84%) of PSA runs were below the willingness-to-pay threshold. Yearly mass screening had an ICER of €2,729/QALY compared to SOC and gave a higher net monetary benefit (€7,393,382) than screening every 3 years (€6,252,816). CONCLUSION: Prison mass screening could be a cost-effective initiative for increasing testing and treatment of HCV in Ireland.


Assuntos
Hepatite C Crônica , Hepatite C , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Análise Custo-Benefício , Hepacivirus , Hepatite C/diagnóstico , Hepatite C/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Hepatite C Crônica/diagnóstico , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C Crônica/epidemiologia , Humanos , Programas de Rastreamento , Prisões , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/tratamento farmacológico , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/epidemiologia
6.
Int J Drug Policy ; 96: 103419, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34452807

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the relationship between short-term incarceration and risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among people who inject drugs (PWID). We investigated whether varying patterns of recent incarceration lasting less than two years are associated with HCV acquisition risk in this population. METHODS: We followed prospectively PWID at risk of acquiring HCV infection in Montréal (2004-2019). At 6-month (up until 2011), then 3-month intervals, participants were tested for HCV antibodies or RNA, and self-reported whether they have been incarcerated in each of the previous 6 or 3 months. If incarcerated, they reported the setting and time spent in incarceration. We fit three separate multivariable time-updated Cox regression models, one for each measure of incarceration: any incarceration lasting less than two years (yes/no), incarceration stratified by setting (local police station/provincial prison/no) and incarceration stratified by time in incarceration (≤1 week/>1 week and ≤1 month/>1 month and <2 years/no). RESULTS: Among 709 PWID followed over 2315.2 person-years, HCV incidence was 9.9/100 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.7-11.2)]. During follow-up, 248 PWID (35.0%) reported at least one recent incarceration episode of less than two years. Overall, compared to PWID who did not experience incarceration in the prior 6 or 3 months, PWID who did were 1.56 (95% CI: 1.13, 2.17) times more likely to acquire HCV. We found no statistically significant difference in the magnitude of associations across categories of setting and time in incarceration (likelihood ratio test P= 0.53 and 0.44, respectively). CONCLUSION: Any recent incarceration lasting less than two years, regardless of the setting and time in incarceration, was associated with an elevated risk of HCV acquisition among PWID. Findings support the need to expand access to harm-reduction programs in short-term incarceration settings and, in parallel, to prioritise public health-oriented alternatives to incarcerating PWID where possible.


Assuntos
Hepatite C , Preparações Farmacêuticas , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa , Redução do Dano , Hepacivirus , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Humanos , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/epidemiologia
7.
Drug Alcohol Depend ; 225: 108829, 2021 08 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34237582

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between experiencing homelessness and assisting injection drug use (IDU) initiation among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana, Mexico and Vancouver, Canada. METHODS: We used self-reported questionnaire data collected semi-annually on PWID from Tijuana (n = 703) and Vancouver (n = 1551) between 2014 and 2017. Within each setting, the effect of recent (i.e., past six months) homelessness on recent provision of injection initiation assistance (i.e., helping anybody inject for the first time in the past six months) was estimated using inverse-probability-of-treatment (IPT)-weighted estimation of a marginal structural model. RESULTS: Across follow-up, the prevalence of recent homelessness at a given visit ranged from 11.6%-16.5% among Tijuana-based participants and 9.4%-18.9% among Vancouver-based participants; the prevalence of recent provision of injection initiation at a given follow-up visit was lower, ranging from 3.3%-5.4% in Tijuana and 2.5%-4.1% in Vancouver. Based on the IPT-weighted estimates, recent homelessness was associated with 66% greater odds among Tijuana-based PWID (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 1.66; 95% CI: 1.01-2.73) and 47% greater odds among Vancouver-based PWID (AOR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.02-2.13) of providing injection initiation assistance over the same six-month period. CONCLUSION: We found that recently experiencing homelessness was associated with an increased likelihood of PWID reporting IDU initiation assistance over time in both Tijuana and Vancouver. Addressing homelessness may decrease the initiation of IDU via multiple pathways.


Assuntos
Usuários de Drogas , Pessoas em Situação de Rua , Preparações Farmacêuticas , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa , Canadá/epidemiologia , Humanos , México/epidemiologia , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/epidemiologia
8.
BMJ Open ; 11(7): e041490, 2021 07 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34226208

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: The overall goal of the Kentucky Viral Hepatitis Treatment Study (KeY Treat) is to eliminate hepatitis C transmission from a county in Appalachian Kentucky by removing the barriers to accessing hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. METHODS/ANALYSIS: KeY Treat is a phase IV, open-label, single-arm clinical trial of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) for the treatment of viraemic HCV infections. Those eligible for KeY Treat are at least 18 years of age, viraemic and are residents of the target county. Pregnant women are not eligible. Rapid HCV RNA screening is used to determine eligibility, and those with a quantifiable viral load (VL) consenting to participate initiate SOF/VEL on the same day. All pharmacologic treatment and related medical care is provided free of charge using a non-specialist provider model. Follow-up visits occur at 2, 6 and 12 weeks during treatment to assess medication adherence (measured via VL and self-report), side effects and engagement in risk behaviours. Post-treatment visits occur at 12 weeks (sustained virologic response (SVR12) visit), 6 months and 12 months post-treatment completion to assess re-infection. A control county has also been identified, and prevalence and incidence of chronic HCV infections will be compared with the target community longitudinally. The primary outcome to assess elimination is SVR12. However, several outcomes will be measured to assess the effectiveness of removing the barriers to HCV treatment, including treatment entry, completion and re-infection. Analyses will be conducted via a generalised linear model framework that can incorporate flexible covariate adjustment and multiple outcome types with a compatible link function. Mathematical modelling will be completed assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: KeY Treat has been approved by the Institutional Review Board at the University of Kentucky. Results from KeY Treat will be presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03949764.


Assuntos
Hepatite C Crônica , Hepatite C , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Carbamatos , Quimioterapia Combinada , Feminino , Genótipo , Hepacivirus/genética , Hepatite C/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Compostos Heterocíclicos de 4 ou mais Anéis , Humanos , Kentucky/epidemiologia , Gravidez , Sofosbuvir/uso terapêutico , Resultado do Tratamento
9.
AIDS Behav ; 25(11): 3814-3827, 2021 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34216285

RESUMO

Tijuana, Mexico, has a concentrated HIV epidemic among overlapping key populations (KPs) including people who inject drugs (PWID), female sex workers (FSW), their male clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a dynamic HIV transmission model among these KPs to determine the extent to which their unmet prevention and treatment needs is driving HIV transmission. Over 2020-2029 we estimated the proportion of new infections acquired in each KP, and the proportion due to their unprotected risk behaviours. We estimate that 43.7% and 55.3% of new infections are among MSM and PWID, respectively, with FSW and their clients making-up < 10% of new infections. Projections suggest 93.8% of new infections over 2020-2029 will be due to unprotected sex between MSM or unsafe injecting drug use. Prioritizing interventions addressing sexual and injecting risks among MSM and PWID are critical to controlling HIV in Tijuana.


Assuntos
Epidemias , Infecções por HIV , Profissionais do Sexo , Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Homossexualidade Masculina , Humanos , Masculino , México/epidemiologia , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/epidemiologia
10.
Hepatology ; 74(5): 2366-2379, 2021 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34105797

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Between 2014 and 2019, the SToP-C trial observed a halving in HCV incidence in four Australian prisons following scale-up of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. However, the contribution of HCV treatment to this decline is unclear because the study did not have a control group. We used modeling to consider this question. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We parameterized and calibrated a dynamic model of HCV transmission in prisons to data from each SToP-C prison on incarceration dynamics, injecting drug use, HCV prevalence trends among prison entrants, baseline HCV incidence before treatment scale-up, and subsequent HCV treatment scale-up. The model projected the decrease in HCV incidence resulting from increases in HCV treatment and other effects. We assessed whether the model agreed better with observed reductions in HCV incidence overall and by prison if we included HCV treatment scale-up, and its prevention benefits, or did not. The model estimated how much of the observed decrease in HCV incidence was attributable to HCV treatment in prison. The model projected a decrease in HCV incidence of 48.5% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 41.9-54.1) following treatment scale-up across the four prisons, agreeing with the observed HCV incidence decrease (47.6%; 95% CI, 23.4-64.2) from the SToP-C trial. Without any in-prison HCV treatment, the model indicated that incidence would have decreased by 7.2% (95% UI, -0.3 to 13.6). This suggests that 85.1% (95% UI, 72.6-100.6) of the observed halving in incidence was from HCV treatment scale-up, with the remainder from observed decreases in HCV prevalence among prison entrants (14.9%; 95% UI, -0.6 to 27.4). CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate the prevention benefits of scaling up HCV treatment in prison settings. Prison-based DAA scale-up should be an important component of HCV elimination strategies.

11.
PLoS Med ; 18(6): e1003653, 2021 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34061883

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The standard pathways of testing and treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in tertiary healthcare are not easily accessed by people who inject drugs (PWID). The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of integrated treatment of chronic HCV infection among PWID. METHODS AND FINDINGS: INTRO-HCV is a multicenter, randomized controlled clinical trial. Participants recruited from opioid agonist therapy (OAT) and community care clinics in Norway over 2017 to 2019 were randomly 1:1 assigned to the 2 treatment approaches. Integrated treatment was delivered by multidisciplinary teams at opioid agonist treatment clinics or community care centers (CCCs) for people with substance use disorders. This included on-site testing for HCV, liver fibrosis assessment, counseling, treatment, and posttreatment follow-up. Standard treatment was delivered in hospital outpatient clinics. Oral direct-acting antiviral (DAA) medications were administered in both arms. The study was not completely blinded. The primary outcomes were time-to-treatment initiation and sustained virologic response (SVR), defined as undetectable HCV RNA 12 weeks after treatment completion, analyzed with intention to treat, and presented as hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. Among 298 included participants, 150 were randomized to standard treatment, of which 116/150 (77%) initiated treatment, with 108/150 (72%) initiating within 1 year of referral. Among those 148 randomized to integrated care, 145/148 (98%) initiated treatment, with 141/148 (95%) initiating within 1 year of referral. The HR for the time to initiating treatment in the integrated arm was 2.2 (1.7 to 2.9) compared to standard treatment. SVR was confirmed in 123 (85% of initiated/83% of all) for integrated treatment compared to 96 (83% of initiated/64% of all) for the standard treatment (OR among treated: 1.5 [0.8 to 2.9], among all: 2.8 [1.6 to 4.8]). No severe adverse events were linked to the treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated treatment for HCV in PWID was superior to standard treatment in terms of time-to-treatment initiation, and subsequently, more people achieved SVR. Among those who initiated treatment, the SVR rates were comparable. Scaling up of integrated treatment models could be an important tool for elimination of HCV. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov.no NCT03155906.


Assuntos
Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Prestação Integrada de Cuidados de Saúde , Usuários de Drogas , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Tratamento de Substituição de Opiáceos , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/reabilitação , Adulto , Feminino , Hepatite C Crônica/complicações , Hepatite C Crônica/diagnóstico , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Noruega , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/complicações , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/diagnóstico , Resposta Viral Sustentada , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do Tratamento , Carga Viral
12.
Addiction ; 2021 Jun 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34184794

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment is essential for eliminating HCV in people who inject drugs (PWID), but has limited coverage in resource-limited settings. We measured the cost-effectiveness of a pilot HCV screening and treatment intervention using directly observed therapy among PWID attending harm reduction services in Nairobi, Kenya. DESIGN: We utilized an existing model of HIV and HCV transmission among current and former PWID in Nairobi to estimate the cost-effectiveness of screening and treatment for HCV, including prevention benefits versus no screening and treatment. The cure rate of treatment and costs for screening and treatment were estimated from intervention data, while other model parameters were derived from literature. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated over a life-time horizon from the health-care provider's perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. SETTING: Nairobi, Kenya. POPULATION: PWID. MEASUREMENTS: Treatment costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (cost per disability-adjusted life year averted). FINDINGS: The cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted for the intervention was $975, with 92.1% of the probabilistic sensitivity analyses simulations falling below the per capita gross domestic product for Kenya ($1509; commonly used as a suitable threshold for determining whether an intervention is cost-effective). However, the intervention was not cost-effective at the opportunity cost-based cost-effectiveness threshold of $647 per disability-adjusted life-year averted. Sensitivity analyses showed that the intervention could provide more value for money by including modelled estimates for HCV disease care costs, assuming lower drug prices ($75 instead of $728 per course) and excluding directly-observed therapy costs. CONCLUSIONS: The current strategy of screening and treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs in Nairobi is likely to be highly cost-effective with currently available cheaper drug prices, if directly-observed therapy is not used and HCV disease care costs are accounted for.

13.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr ; 88(1): 19-30, 2021 09 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34117163

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risks. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic transmission model. SETTING: World Health Organization regions. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV transmission among 15- to 49-year-old heterosexual, non-drug-injecting populations, calibrated using region-specific demographic and HSV-2/HIV epidemiological data. We derived global and regional estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infection over 10 years [the transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] under 3 additive scenarios, assuming: (1) HSV-2 increases only HIV acquisition risk (conservative); (2) HSV-2 also increases HIV transmission risk (liberal); and (3) HIV or antiretroviral therapy (ART) also modifies HSV-2 transmission risk, and HSV-2 decreases ART effect on HIV transmission risk (fully liberal). RESULTS: Under the conservative scenario, the predicted tPAF was 37.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 33.4%-43.2%), and an estimated 5.6 (4.5-7.0) million incident heterosexual HIV infections were due to HSV-2 globally over 2009-2018. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections was largest for the African region [tPAF = 42.6% (38.0%-51.2%)] and lowest for the European region [tPAF = 11.2% (7.9%-13.8%)]. The tPAF was higher among female sex workers, their clients, and older populations, reflecting their higher HSV-2 prevalence. The tPAF was approximately 50% and 1.3- to 2.4-fold higher for the liberal or fully liberal scenario than the conservative scenario across regions. CONCLUSION: HSV-2 may have contributed to at least 37% of incident HIV infections in the past decade worldwide, and even more in Africa, and may continue to do so despite increased ART access unless future improved HSV-2 control measures, such as vaccines, become available.

14.
Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 6(7): 533-546, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33965006

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Limited empirical evidence exists for the effectiveness of hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment-as-prevention. The Surveillance and Treatment of Prisoners with hepatitis C (SToP-C) study aimed to assess the effect of HCV treatment-as-prevention in the prison setting. METHODS: SToP-C was a prospective study, including a before-and-after analysis, within a cohort of people incarcerated in two maximum-security prisons (male) and two medium-security prisons (one male, one female) in New South Wales, Australia. All prison inmates aged at least 18 years were eligible for enrolment. After HCV testing, participants were monitored for risk behaviours and HCV infection, among three sub-populations: uninfected (HCV antibody-negative); previously infected (HCV antibody-positive, HCV RNA-negative); and infected (HCV antibody and HCV RNA-positive). Uninfected participants were followed up every 3-6 months to detect HCV primary infection and previously infected participants were followed up every 3-6 months to detect re-infection. Participants with HCV infection were assessed for treatment, initially standard-of-care treatment (administered by prison health services) from 2014 to mid-2017, then direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment scale-up from mid-2017 onwards (12 weeks of sofosbuvir plus velpatasvir, administered through SToP-C). Participants were followed up until study closure in November, 2019. The primary study outcome was HCV incidence before and after DAA treatment scale-up among participants at risk of HCV primary infection or re-infection. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02064049. FINDINGS: Between Oct 30, 2014, and Sept 30, 2019, 3691 participants were enrolled in the SToP-C study. 719 (19%) participants had detectable HCV RNA, 2240 (61%) were at risk of primary HCV infection, and 725 (20%) were at risk of re-infection at baseline. DAA treatment was initiated in 349 (70%) of 499 eligible participants during the treatment scale-up period. The HCV incidence analysis comprised 1643 participants at risk of HCV infection or re-infection during longitudinal follow-up (median age 33 years [IQR 27-42]; 1350 [82%] male). 487 (30%) of 1643 participants reported injecting drugs in prison. HCV incidence decreased from 8·31 per 100 person-years in the pre-treatment scale-up period to 4·35 per 100 person-years in the post-treatment scale-up period (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·52 [95% CI 0·36-0·78]; p=0·0007). The incidence of primary infection decreased from 6·64 per 100 person-years in the pre-treatment scale-up period to 2·85 per 100 person-years in the post-treatment scale-up period (IRR 0·43 [95% CI 0·25-0·74]; p=0·0019), whereas the incidence of re-infection decreased from 12·36 per 100 person-years to 7·27 per 100 person-years (0·59 [0·35-1·00]; p=0·050). Among participants reporting injecting drugs during their current imprisonment, the incidence of primary infection decreased from 39·08 per 100 person-years in the pre-treatment scale-up period to 14·03 per 100 person-years in the post-treatment scale-up period (IRR 0·36 [95% CI 0·16-0·80]; p=0·0091), and the incidence of re-infection decreased from 15·26 per 100 person-years to 9·34 per 100 person-years (0·61 [0·34-1·09]; p=0·093). The adjusted analysis (adjusted for age, Indigenous Australian ethnicity, duration of stay in prison, previous imprisonment, injecting drug use status, and prison site) indicated a significant reduction in the risk of HCV infection between the pre-DAA treatment scale-up and post-DAA treatment scale-up periods (adjusted hazard ratio 0·50 [95% CI 0·33-0·76]; p=0·0014). INTERPRETATION: DAA treatment scale-up was associated with reduced HCV incidence in prison, indicative of a beneficial effect of HCV treatment-as-prevention in this setting. These findings support broad DAA treatment scale-up within incarcerated populations. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Partnership Project Grant and Gilead Sciences.


Assuntos
Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Prisioneiros/estatística & dados numéricos , Prisões , Adulto , Austrália/epidemiologia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Hepatite C Crônica/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , New South Wales/epidemiologia , Estudos Prospectivos
15.
EClinicalMedicine ; 33: 100779, 2021 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33842867

RESUMO

Background: Mycoplasma genitalium (MG) causes a sexually transmitted infection (STI) with a rising rate of antimicrobial resistance. Currently, guidelines do not recommend screening asymptomatic men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a mathematical model of MG transmission to examine the impact of various screening strategies on the incidence and prevalence of MG among MSM attending a sexual health clinic. Methods: A compartmental mathematical model of MG transmission among MSM was constructed and calibrated using data from the Melbourne Sexual Health center, where resistance-guided therapy provides high treatment effectiveness (92-95%). The model stratified men by symptom status, sexual risk behaviours and whether or not they had MG with macrolide resistance. We simulated the impact on endemic steady-state MG prevalence and incidence of the following screening scenarios, namely screening: 1) no MSM; 2) only symptomatic MSM (the current recommendation); 3) all symptomatic and high-risk asymptomatic MSM; and 4) all MSM. Our base case analysis assumed a treatment effectiveness of 92-95% using resistance-guided therapy. We also examined the impact of treatment effectiveness (i.e. the proportion of detected MG that were cured) and screening coverage (i.e. testing rate) on MG prevalence. Findings: The model predicts that the overall endemic MG prevalence is 9.1% (95% CI: 7.9-10.0) in the current situation where screening is only offered to symptomatic MSM (base-case). This would increase to 11·4% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 10.2-13.7) if no MSM are offered screening, but would decrease to 7.3% (95% CI: 5.7-8.4) if all symptomatic and high-risk asymptomatic MSM were offered screening and 6.4% (95% CI: 4.7-7·7) if all MSM were offered screening. Increasing coverage of MSM screening strategies shows a similar effect on decreasing endemic MG incidence. When evaluating the simultaneous impact of treatment effectiveness and screening coverage, we found that offering screening to more MSM may reduce the overall prevalence but leads to a higher proportion of macrolide-resistant MG, particularly when using treatment regimens with lower effectiveness. Interpretation: Based on the available treatment options, offering screening for MG to other MSM (beyond the currently recommended group of symptomatic MSM) could slightly reduce the prevalence and incidence of MG. However, further increasing screening coverage must be weighed against the impact of lower treatment effectiveness (i.e. when not using resistance-guided therapy), increasing the selection of macrolide resistance, and other negative consequences related to AMR and management (e.g. unnecessary psychological morbidity from infections that do not need treatment).

16.
J Int AIDS Soc ; 24(4): e25697, 2021 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33821553

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China, over a one- and five-year time horizon. METHODS: Regional data from China indicated that the number of MSM undergoing facility-based HIV testing reduced by 59% during the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside reductions in ART initiation (34%), numbers of all sexual partners (62%) and consistency of condom use (25%), but initial data indicated no change in viral suppression. A mathematical model of HIV transmission/treatment among MSM was used to estimate the impact of disruptions on HIV infections/HIV-related deaths. Disruption scenarios were assessed for their individual and combined impact over one and five years for 3/4/6-month disruption periods, starting from 1 January 2020. RESULTS: Our model predicted new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths would be increased most by disruptions to viral suppression, with 25% reductions (25% virally suppressed MSM stop taking ART) for a three-month period increasing HIV infections by 5% to 14% over one year and deaths by 7% to 12%. Observed reductions in condom use increased HIV infections by 5% to 14% but had minimal impact (<1%) on deaths. Smaller impacts on infections and deaths (<3%) were seen for disruptions to facility HIV testing and ART initiation, but reduced partner numbers resulted in 11% to 23% fewer infections and 0.4% to 1.0% fewer deaths. Longer disruption periods (4/6 months) amplified the impact of disruption scenarios. When realistic disruptions were modelled simultaneously, an overall decrease in new HIV infections occurred over one year (3% to 17%), but not for five years (1% increase to 4% decrease), whereas deaths mostly increased over one year (1% to 2%) and five years (1.2 increase to 0.3 decrease). CONCLUSIONS: The overall impact of COVID-19 on new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths is dependent on the nature, scale and length of the various disruptions. Resources should be directed to ensuring levels of viral suppression and condom use are maintained to mitigate any adverse effects of COVID-19-related disruption on HIV transmission and control among MSM in China.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Homossexualidade Masculina , SARS-CoV-2 , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/transmissão , Humanos , Masculino , Sexo Seguro
17.
J Viral Hepat ; 28(6): 897-908, 2021 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33759257

RESUMO

Modelling suggests hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is possible among men who have sex with men (MSM), with key screening groups including HIV-diagnosed MSM and MSM using pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Mathematical modelling was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of HCV case-finding strategies among MSM from the provider perspective, and to determine which interventions could achieve a 90% reduction in HCV incidence over 2015-2030. At baseline, we assumed symptomatic screening in HIV-negative MSM (including PrEP users) and 12-monthly screening among HIV-diagnosed MSM. Improved case-finding strategies included screening alongside HIV testing in HIV-negative MSM not using PrEP (PrEP non-users); 12/6/3-monthly screening in PrEP users; and 6-monthly screening in HIV-diagnosed MSM, with the cost-effectiveness being compared incrementally. Costs (GBP) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were assessed to estimate the mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with a time horizon to 2050, compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY. From the baseline, the most incrementally cost-effective strategy is to firstly undertake: (1) 12-monthly HCV screening of PrEP users (gaining 6715 QALYs with ICER £1760/QALY), followed by (2) HCV screening among PrEP non-users alongside HIV testing (gaining 7048 QALYs with ICER £4972/QALY). Compared to the baseline, this combined strategy would cost £46.9 (95%CrI £25.3-£66.9) million and achieve the HCV elimination target in 100% of model runs. Additional screening incurs ICERs >£20,000/QALY compared to this combined strategy. In conclusion, HCV elimination can be achieved cost-effectively among UK MSM. Policymakers should consider scaling-up HCV screening in HIV-negative MSM, especially PrEP users, for achieving this target.


Assuntos
Fármacos Anti-HIV , Infecções por HIV , Hepatite C , Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero , Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Análise Custo-Benefício , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Hepacivirus , Hepatite C/diagnóstico , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Hepatite C/prevenção & controle , Homossexualidade Masculina , Humanos , Masculino , Reino Unido
18.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 6442, 2021 03 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33742016

RESUMO

Climate change and emerging drug resistance make the control of many infectious diseases increasingly challenging and diminish the exclusive reliance on drug treatment as sole solution to the problem. As disease transmission often depends on environmental conditions that can be modified, such modifications may become crucial to risk reduction if we can assess their potential benefit at policy-relevant scales. However, so far, the value of environmental management for this purpose has received little attention. Here, using the parasitic disease of fasciolosis in livestock in the UK as a case study, we demonstrate how mechanistic hydro-epidemiological modelling can be applied to understand disease risk drivers and the efficacy of environmental management across a large heterogeneous domain. Our results show how weather and other environmental characteristics interact to define disease transmission potential and reveal that environmental interventions such as risk avoidance management strategies can provide a valuable alternative or complement to current treatment-based control practice.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Meio Ambiente , Fasciolíase/prevenção & controle , Gado/parasitologia , Animais , Bovinos , Fasciola/patogenicidade , Fasciolíase/transmissão , Fasciolíase/veterinária , Hidrologia , Modelos Estatísticos
19.
Clin Infect Dis ; 73(6): e1290-e1295, 2021 09 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33768236

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: To achieve elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, limited resources can be best allocated through estimation of "care cascades" among groups disproportionately affected. In San Francisco and elsewhere, these groups include young (age ≤ 30 years) people who inject drugs (YPWID), men who have sex with men who inject drugs (MSM-IDU), and low-income trans women. METHODS: We developed cross-sectional HCV care cascades for YPWID, MSM-IDU, and trans women using diverse data sources. Population sizes were estimated using an inverse variance-weighted average of estimates from the peer-reviewed literature between 2013 and 2019. Proportions of past/current HCV infection, diagnosed infection, treatment initiation, and evidence of cure (sustained virologic response at 12 weeks posttreatment) were estimated from the literature using data from 7 programs and studies in San Francisco between 2015 and 2020. RESULTS: The estimated number of YPWID in San Francisco was 3748; 58.4% had past/current HCV infection, of whom 66.4% were diagnosed with current infection, 9.1% had initiated treatment, and 50% had confirmed cure. The corresponding figures for the 8135 estimated MSM-IDU were: 29.4% with past/current HCV infection, 70.3% diagnosed with current infection, 28.4% initiated treatment, and 38.9% with confirmed cure. For the estimated 951 low-income trans women, 24.8% had past/current HCV infection, 68.9% were diagnosed with current infection, 56.5% initiated treatment, and 75.5% had confirmed cure. CONCLUSIONS: In all 3 populations, diagnosis rates were relatively high; however, attention is needed to urgently increase treatment initiation in all groups, with a particular unmet need among YPWID.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV , Hepatite C , Preparações Farmacêuticas , Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa , Adolescente , Adulto , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Hepacivirus , Hepatite C/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Homossexualidade Masculina , Humanos , Masculino , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/complicações , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/epidemiologia
20.
Eur J Public Health ; 31(3): 619-624, 2021 07 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33693615

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In responding to Covid-19, governments have tried to balance protecting health while minimizing gross domestic product (GDP) losses. We compare health-related net benefit (HRNB) and GDP losses associated with government responses of the UK, Ireland, Germany, Spain and Sweden from UK healthcare payer perspective. METHODS: We compared observed cases, hospitalizations and deaths under 'mitigation' to modelled events under 'no mitigation' to 20 July 2020. We thus calculated healthcare costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and HRNB at £20,000/QALY saved by each country. On per population (i.e. per capita) basis, we compared HRNB with forecast reductions in 2020 GDP growth (overall or compared with Sweden as minimal mitigation country) and qualitatively and quantitatively described government responses. RESULTS: The UK saved 3.17 (0.32-3.65) million QALYs, £33 (8-38) billion healthcare costs and £1416 (220-1637) HRNB per capita at £20,000/QALY. Per capita, this is comparable to £1455 GDP loss using Sweden as comparator and offsets 46.1 (7.1-53.2)% of total £3075 GDP loss. Germany, Spain, and Sweden had greater HRNB per capita. These also offset a greater percentage of total GDP losses per capita. Ireland fared worst on both measures. Countries with more mask wearing, testing, and population susceptibility had better outcomes. Highest stringency responses did not appear to have best outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our exploratory analysis indicates the benefit of government Covid-19 responses may outweigh their economic costs. The extent that HRNB offset economic losses appears to relate to population characteristics, testing levels, and mask wearing, rather than response stringency.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Análise Custo-Benefício , Europa (Continente) , Alemanha , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Irlanda , SARS-CoV-2 , Espanha , Suécia , Reino Unido
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