Multi-omics integration strategy in the post-mortem interval of forensic science.

Estimates of post-mortem interval (PMI), which often serve as pivotal evidence in forensic contexts, are fundamentally based on assessments of variability among diverse molecular markers (including proteins and metabolites), their correlations, and their temporal changes in post-mortem organisms. Nevertheless, the present approach to estimating the PMI is not comprehensive and exhibits poor performance. We developed an innovative approach that integrates multi-omics and artificial intelligence, using multimolecular, multimarker, and multidimensional information to accurately describe the intricate biological processes that occur after death, ultimately enabling inference of the PMI. Called the multi-omics stacking model (MOSM), it combines metabolomics, protein microarray electrophoresis, and fourier transform-infrared spectroscopy data. It shows improved prediction accuracy of the PMI, which is urgently needed in the forensic field. It achieved an accuracy of 0.93, generalized area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.98, and minimum mean absolute error of 0.07. The MOSM integration framework not only considers multiple markers but also incorporates machine-learning models with distinct algorithmic principles. The diversity of biological mechanisms and algorithmic models further ensures the generalizability and robustness of PMI estimation.

Pretreatment Pan-Immune-Inflammation Value (PIV) in Predicting Therapeutic Response and Clinical Outcomes of Neoadjuvant Immunochemotherapy for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: The pan-immune-inflammation value (PIV), which reflects the balance between the host immune and inflammatory status, is a readily available index for evaluating cancer outcomes. Until now, however, no study has demonstrated the clinical response of PIV to neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy (NICT) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: This retrospective study included 218 patients with ESCC who underwent NICT. The relationship between PIV and therapeutic response (pathological complete response [PCR]) and clinical outcomes (overall survival [OS] and disease-free survival [DFS]) was examined. Cox proportional, hazard-regression analyses and the Kaplan-Meier method were used for survival analyses. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to establish a novel risk stratification model. RESULTS: Sixty-six patients (30.3%) achieved PCR after NICT. Using PCR as the endpoint of interest, patients were compared in groups based on the optimal threshold. PIV was closely related to PCR (odds ratio [OR] 0.311, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.140-0.690, P = 0.004). Compared with patients in the low PIV cohort, patients with high PIV had worse 3-year OS (58.7% vs. 83.6%, P < 0.001) and DFS (51.9% vs. 79.1%, P < 0.001). PIV was an independent predictor of OS (hazard ratio [HR] 2.364, 95% CI 1.183-4.724, P = 0.015) and DFS (HR 1.729, 95% CI 1.026-2.913, P = 0.040). Three risk groups with varied DFS and OS were staged by using an RPA method, and the prognostication accuracy was considerably improved. CONCLUSIONS: Pretreatment PIV can predict the therapeutic efficacy of NICT for ESCC. Because of better prognostic stratification, pretreatment PIV is a novel, sensitive, and effective indicator in ESCC receiving NICT. The prognostic results of PIV need to be verified in additional prospective studies.

Occurrence, seasonal variation and gas/particle partitioning of current used pesticides (CUPs) across 60 °C temperature and 30° latitudes in China.

Gas and particle phases samples were collected at three sites in China in 2019-2020, with 60 °C temperature span and 30° latitude range. Totally, among 76 target current used pesticides (CUPs) with four types, 51 were quantified in at least one sample. The concentrations of individual CUPs ranged from 8 orders of magnitude, indicating different pollution levels. Herbicides were the dominated CUPs in Northeast China, while higher concentrations of fungicides were found in Southeast China. The highest concentrations of CUPs were observed in Southeast China in spring and winter, while in summer and autumn in Northeast China, caused by local climates and crop cultivation patterns. The gas/particle (G/P) partitioning of CUPs was mainly influenced by their physicochemical properties and ambient temperature. The G/P partitioning study indicated that the L-M-Y model was the optimum prediction model for herbicides, fungicides and pyrethroids. The L-M-Y model and the H-B model presented equal performance for organophosphate insecticides. To our knowledge, the L-M-Y model was firstly applied for the study of the G/P partitioning of CUPs, which provided new insights into the related fields of new emergency contaminates.

Finite element analysis of repairing tympanic membrane perforation using autologous graft material and biodegradable bionic cobweb scaffold.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: As for repairing the perforated tympanic membranes (TM), temporalis fascia and tragal cartilage are popular in clinics as autologous graft materials. However, there is a significant hearing loss after repairing the TM with autologous graft materials, which needs to be addressed in biomechanical engineering. METHODS: The finite element model of normal middle ear is improved from two aspects: the repair method of tympanic fibrous layer and the bionic spider web tympanic scaffold. By creating the solid-shell coupling condition and strong coupling boundary condition to simulate the repair, TM umbo and stapes footplate displacement-frequency response are explored in 200-8000 Hz. RESULTS: The tympanic membrane perforation (TMP) causes a significant conductive hearing loss in high frequency region, which is positively correlated with perforation area. Both temporalis fascia and tragal cartilage still perform a certain degree of high-frequency hearing loss after repairing TMP. The TM attachment the magnesium alloy scaffold (MAS) prevents appropriately the high frequency hearing loss after autologous graft repair and makes the sound transmission closer to the normal condition. Significantly, the density of graft material has a negative effect on high-frequency sound transmission without the MAS. The modal-motion of TM repaired with temporalis fascia and tragal cartilage is improved significantly after attaching the MAS. In addition, the MAS restores effectively the configuration and vibration frequency of the repaired TM, which is similar to that of the native TM. CONCLUSION: The area size of TMP is studied through the finite element method, which includes autologous graft materials, the MAS, parameter sensitivity analysis, modal analysis of graft material and the MAS in biological form on the effect of middle ear sound transmission. Relevant conclusions provide some references for clinical trial protocol and the follow-up repair ideas of TM of tympanoplasty.

Latencies to the first interictal epileptiform discharges recorded by the electroencephalography in different epileptic patients.

PURPOSE: Interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) captured in electroencephalography (EEG) have a high diagnostic value for epileptic patients. Extending the recording time may increase the possibility of obtaining IEDs. The purpose of our research was to determine how long it took for various epileptic individuals to receive their first IEDs. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed patients who were diagnosed with epilepsy and had no anti-seizure medications (ASMs) between September 2018 and March 2019 in the neurology department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University. Each individual underwent a 24-h long-term video electroencephalographic monitoring (VEM) procedure. Clinical information including age, gender, age of seizure onset, frequency of seizures, the interval between last seizure and VEM, and results of neuroimaging were gathered. We also calculated the times from the start of the VEM to the first definite IEDs. RESULTS: A total of 241 patients were examined, including 191 with focal-onset epilepsy and 50 with generalized epilepsy. In individuals with focal-onset epilepsy, the median latency to the first IED was 63.0 min (IQR 19.0-299.0 min), as compared to 30.0 min (IQR 12.5-62.0 min) in patients with generalized epilepsy (p < 0.001). The latency to the first IED is significantly related to the age of seizure onset (HR = 0.988, p = 0.049), the interval between last seizure and VEM (HR = 0.998, p = 0.013). But it is not correlated with seizure frequency, gender and age. CONCLUSIONS: IEDs were discovered during 24-h EEG monitoring in 222/241(92.1%) of the epilepsy patients that were included. Compared to focal-onset epilepsy, generalized epilepsy demonstrated a much shorter latency to IED. Patients with late-onset epilepsy or those without recent episodes may require longer EEG monitoring periods.

Integrative analysis of transcriptome and proteome profiles in primary and recurrent glioblastoma.

PURPOSE: Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common and aggressive primary brain tumor characterized by poor prognosis and high recurrence. The underlying molecular mechanism that drives tumor progression and recurrence is unclear. This study is intended to look for molecular and biological changes that play a key role in GBM recurrence. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: An integrative transcriptomic and proteomic analysis was performed on three primary GBM and three recurrent GBM tissues. Omics analyses were conducted using label-free quantitative proteomics and whole transcriptome sequencing. RESULTS: A significant difference was found between primary GBM and recurrent GBM at the transcriptional level. Similar to other omics studies of cancer, a weak overlap was observed between transcriptome and proteome, and Procollagen C-Endopeptidase Enhancer 2 (PCOLCE2) was observed to be upregulated at mRNA and protein levels. Analysis of public cancer database revealed that high expression of PCOLCE2 is associated with poor prognosis of patients with GBM and that it may be a potential prognostic indicator. Functional and environmental enrichment analyses revealed significantly altered signaling pathways related to energy metabolism, including mitochondrial ATP synthesis-coupled electron transport and oxidative phosphorylation. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study provides new insights into the recurrence process of GBM through combined transcriptomic and proteomic analyses, complementing the existing GBM transcriptomic and proteomic data and suggesting that integrated multi-omics analyses may reveal new disease features of GBM.

Micheliolide exerts effects in myeloproliferative neoplasms through inhibiting STAT3/5 phosphorylation via covalent binding to STAT3/5 proteins.

Ruxolitinib is a cornerstone of management for some subsets of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs); however, a considerable number of patients respond suboptimally. Here, we evaluated the efficacy of micheliolide (MCL), a natural guaianolide sesquiterpene lactone, alone or in combination with ruxolitinib in samples from patients with MPNs, JAK2V617F-mutated MPN cell lines, and a Jak2V617F knock-in mouse model. MCL effectively suppressed colony formation of hematopoietic progenitors in samples from patients with MPNs and inhibited cell growth and survival of MPN cell lines in vitro. Co-treatment with MCL and ruxolitinib resulted in greater inhibitory effects compared with treatment with ruxolitinib alone. Moreover, dimethylaminomicheliolide (DMAMCL), an orally available derivative of MCL, significantly increased the efficacy of ruxolitinib in reducing splenomegaly and cytokine production in Jak2V617F knock-in mice without evident effects on normal hematopoiesis. Importantly, MCL could target the Jak2V617F clone and reduce mutant allele burden in vivo. Mechanistically, MCL can form a stable covalent bond with cysteine residues of STAT3/5 to suppress their phosphorylation, thus inhibiting JAK/STAT signaling. Overall, these findings suggest that MCL is a promising drug in combination with ruxolitinib in the setting of suboptimal response to ruxolitinib.

CAR-T cell therapy: Where are we now, and where are we heading?

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T-cell therapies have exhibited remarkable efficacy in the treatment of hematologic malignancies, with 9 CAR-T-cell products currently available. Furthermore, CAR-T cells have shown promising potential for expanding their therapeutic applications to diverse areas, including solid tumors, myocardial fibrosis, and autoimmune and infectious diseases. Despite these advancements, significant challenges pertaining to treatment-related toxic reactions and relapses persist. Consequently, current research efforts are focused on addressing these issues to enhance the safety and efficacy of CAR-T cells and reduce the relapse rate. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the present state of CAR-T-cell therapies, including their achievements, existing challenges, and potential future developments.

Management Strategy for Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System Category 3 Lesions.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) category 3 lesions present a clinical dilemma due to their uncertain nature, which complicates the development of a definitive management strategy. These lesions have an incidence rate of approximately 22-32%, with clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) accounting for about 10-30%. Therefore, a thorough evaluation is warranted. RECENT FINDINGS: This review highlights the need for radiology peer review, including the confirmation of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) compliance, as the initial step. Additional MRI models such as VERDICT or Tofts need to be verified. Current evidence shows that imaging and clinical indicators can be used for risk stratification of PI-RADS 3 lesions. For low-risk lesions, a safety net monitoring approach involving annual repeat MRI can be employed. In contrast, lesions deemed potentially risky based on prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD), 68 Ga-PSMA PET/CT, MPS, Proclarix, or AI/machine learning models should undergo biopsy. It is recommended to establish a multidisciplinary team that takes into account factors such as age, PSAD, prostate, and lesion size, as well as previous biopsy pathological findings. Combining expert opinions, clinical-imaging indicators, and emerging methods will contribute to the development of management strategies for PI-RADS 3 lesions.

Hippocampal circAnk3 Deficiency Causes Anxiety-like Behaviors and Social Deficits by Regulating the miR-7080-3p/IQGAP1 Pathway in Mice.

BACKGROUND: Circular RNAs (circRNAs) are highly enriched in the synapses of the mammalian brain and play important roles in neurological function by acting as molecular sponges of microRNAs (miRNAs). CircAnk3 is derived from the 11th intron of the Ankyrin 3 (Ank3) gene, a strong genetic risk factor for neuropsychiatric disorders; however, the function of circAnk3 remains elusive. In this study, we investigated the function of circAnk3 and its downstream regulatory network for target genes in the hippocampus of mice. METHODS: The DNA sequence from which circAnk3 is generated was modified using CRISPR/Cas9 technology, and neurobehavioral tests (anxiety and depression-like behaviours, social behaviours) were performed in circAnk3+/- mice. A series of molecular and biochemical assays were used to investigate the function of circAnk3 as a microRNA sponge and its downstream regulatory network for target genes. RESULTS: CircAnk3+/- mice exhibited both anxiety-like behaviors and social deficits. CircAnk3 was predominantly located in the cytoplasm of neuronal cells and functioned as a miR-7080-3p sponge to regulate the expression of IQ motif containing GTPase activating protein 1 (Iqgap1). Inhibition of miR-7080-3p or restoration of Iqgap1 in the hippocampus ameliorated the behavioral deficits of circAnk3+/- mice. Furthermore, circAnk3 deficiency decreased the expression of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) subunit GluN2a and impaired the structural plasticity of dendritic synapses in the hippocampus. CONCLUSION: Our results reveal an important role of the circAnk3/miR-7080-3p/IQGAP1 axis in maintaining the structural plasticity of hippocampal synapses. CircAnk3 might offer new insights into the involvement of circRNAs in neuropsychiatric disorders.

From basic to clinical: Anatomy of Denonvilliers' fascia and its application in laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer.

The total mesorectal excision (TME) approach has been established as the gold standard for the surgical treatment of middle and lower rectal cancer. This approach is widely accepted to minimize the risk of local recurrence and increase the long-term survival rate of patients undergoing surgery. However, standardized TME causes urogenital dysfunction in more than half of patients, thus lowering the quality of life of patients. Of note, pelvic autonomic nerve damage during TME is the most pivotal cause of postoperative urogenital dysfunction. The anatomy of the Denonvilliers' fascia (DVF) and its application in surgery have been investigated both nationally and internationally. Nevertheless, controversy exists regarding the basic to clinical anatomy of DVF and its application in surgery. Currently, it is a hotspot of concern and research to improve the postoperative quality of life of patients with rectal cancer through the protection of their urinary and reproductive functions after radical resection. Herein, this study systematically describes the anatomy of DVF and its application in surgery, thus providing a reference for the selection of surgical treatment modalities and the enhancement of postoperative quality of life in patients with middle and low rectal cancer.

A novel immune-nutritional score predicts response to neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy after minimally invasive esophagectomy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: The role of neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy (NICT) has gradually attracted attention in recent years. To date, sensitive and reliable blood indicators to forecast the therapeutic response are still lacking. This study aimed to conduct a novel predictive score based on a variety of peripheral hematological immune-nutritional indicators to predict the therapeutic response in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) receiving NICT. Methods: There were 206 ESCC patients receiving NICT retrospectively recruited. With pathological complete response (pCR) as the dependent variable, independent risk variables of various peripheral blood immune-nutritional indexes were screened by logistic regression analyses to establish an integrative score. Results: By logical regression analyses, lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) and body mass index (BMI) were independent risk factors among all immune-nutritional indices. Then, an integrative score named BMI-LMR score (BLS) was established. Compared with BMI or LMR, BLS was related to complications, especially for respiratory complication (P=0.012) and vocal cord paralysis (P=0.021). Among all patients, 61 patients (29.6%) achieved pCR after NICT. BLS was significantly related to pCR [odds ratio (OR)=0.269, P<0.001)]. Patients in high BLS cohort demonstrated higher 3-year overall survival (OS) (89.9% vs. 67.9%, P=0.001) and disease-free survival (DFS) (81.2% vs. 62.1%, P=0.001). BLS served as an independent factor of DFS [hazard ratio (HR) =2.044, P =0.020) and OS (HR =2.960, P =0.019). Conclusion: The BLS, based on immune-nutritional indicators of BMI and LMR, employed as a straightforward, accurate, and useful indicator of pCR and prognostic prediction in ESCC patients undergoing NICT.

Comparative predictive efficacy of atherogenic indices on metabolic syndrome in patients with schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia patients endure high risks of metabolic syndrome and related cardiovascular mortality. Evidence on comparing detective power among atherogenic indices of the metabolic syndrome in schizophrenia patients with antipsychotics treatment is still lacking. METHOD: We recruited 128 schizophrenia patients and collected blood samples to determine plasma levels of fasting glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Five components of metabolic syndrome were assessed. Atherogenic indices, such as atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), atherogenic coefficient (AC), Castelli's risk index-I (CRI-I) and Castelli's risk index-II (CRI-II), were calculated. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and regression analysis were adopted to compare the detective power of each atherogenic index for metabolic syndrome. The optimal cutoff points using maximization of Youden's index and the positive likelihood ratios were calculated. RESULTS: 51 (39.8 %) had metabolic syndrome. AIP (0.2 ± 0.2 vs. 0.6 ± 0.2), AC (2.5 ± 0.9 vs. 3.4 ± 0.9), CRI-I (3.5 ± 0.9 vs. 4.4 ± 0.9,) and CRI-II (2.1 ± 0.7 vs. 2.6 ± 0.7) were higher in the group with metabolic syndrome (all p < 0.001). AIP had the highest AUC (0.845, 95 % CI: 0.770, 0.920). The optimal cut-off point of AIP to predict metabolic syndrome was 0.4 with the corresponding sensitivity 83.7 %, specificity 80.3 %, and positive likelihood ratio 4.2. Regression analysis revealed that only AIP significantly correlated with the metabolic syndrome (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Among atherogenic indices, only AIP has superior discrimination for detecting metabolic syndrome in schizophrenia with antipsychotics treatment.

Expert consensus on the relevance of intestinal microecology and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) affects gut microbial homeostasis, and intestinal microecology (IM) may also affect the prognosis of HSCT through multiple mechanisms. In order to further understand the key issues of the correlation between intestinal microecology and HSCT and to learn and absorb new research progress, the Tumor and Microecology Committee of China Anti-Cancer Association organized relevant experts to discuss together and propose the "Expert Consensus on the Relevance of Intestinal Microecology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation" for clinicians' reference in their practical work. It is a reference for clinicians in practice and provides a basis for further in-depth research in the field of tumor and microecology.

Case Report: Successful immune checkpoint inhibitor-based rechallenge in a patient with advanced renal clear cell cancer.

With the rapidly evolving of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), it has shown remarkable clinical benefits in treating various cancers. However, immune-related adverse events (irAEs) remain a significant challenge in the management of patients undergoing immunotherapy. There are limited data about immunotherapy re-challenge in patients with renal clear cell cancer who had irAE in the initial ICI therapy. In this study, we reported the case of a patient with advanced renal clear cell cancer who developed serious irAEs but also achieved a partial remission of tumor after ICI combined with pazopanib in the first-line treatment. After intravenous methylprednisolone therapy for two weeks, the patient fully recovered from treatment-related toxicities. After a multidisciplinary treatment (MDT) discussion and a communication with the patient, the decision was made to undergo a new fully humanized programmed death 1 (PD-1) agent, zimberelimab, combined with pazopanib for immune restart therapy. After two cycles of treatment, the patient demonstrated a partial response (PR), and the disease remained in continuous remission without any irAE at our last follow-up after 14 months' treatment. Re-challenging with immunotherapy after irAEs is an emerging strategy that offers the potential for additional clinical benefits to previously responding patients. However, careful patient selection and monitoring are essential to maximize the safety and efficacy of this approach.

Transcriptome analysis of the Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus) reveals candidate genes affecting milk production traits.

BACKGROUND: Milk production traits are complex traits with vital economic importance in the camel industry. However, the genetic mechanisms regulating milk production traits in camels remain poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to identify candidate genes and metabolic pathways that affect milk production traits in Bactrian camels. METHODS: We classified camels (fourth parity) as low- or high-yield, examined pregnant camels using B-mode ultrasonography, observed the microscopic changes in the mammary gland using hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining, and used RNA sequencing to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and pathways. RESULTS: The average standard milk yield over the 300 days during parity was recorded as 470.18 ± 9.75 and 978.34 ± 3.80 kg in low- and high-performance camels, respectively. Nine female Junggar Bactrian camels were subjected to transcriptome sequencing, and 609 and 393 DEGs were identified in the low-yield vs. high-yield (WDL vs. WGH) and pregnancy versus colostrum period (RSQ vs. CRQ) comparison groups, respectively. The DEGs were compared with genes associated with milk production traits in the Animal Quantitative Trait Loci database and in Alashan Bactrian camels, and 65 and 46 overlapping candidate genes were obtained, respectively. Functional enrichment and protein-protein interaction network analyses of the DEGs and candidate genes were conducted. After comparing our results with those of other livestock studies, we identified 16 signaling pathways and 27 core candidate genes associated with maternal parturition, estrogen regulation, initiation of lactation, and milk production traits. The pathways suggest that emerged milk production involves the regulation of multiple complex metabolic and cellular developmental processes in camels. Finally, the RNA sequencing results were validated using quantitative real-time PCR; the 15 selected genes exhibited consistent expression changes. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified DEGs and metabolic pathways affecting maternal parturition and milk production traits. The results provides a theoretical foundation for further research on the molecular mechanism of genes related to milk production traits in camels. Furthermore, these findings will help improve breeding strategies to achieve the desired milk yield in camels.

RVFScan predicts virulence factor genes and hypervirulence of the clinical metagenome.

Bacterial infections often involve virulence factors that play a crucial role in the pathogenicity of bacteria. Accurate detection of virulence factor genes (VFGs) is essential for precise treatment and prognostic management of hypervirulent bacterial infections. However, there is a lack of rapid and accurate methods for VFG identification from the metagenomic data of clinical samples. Here, we developed a Reads-based Virulence Factors Scanner (RVFScan), an innovative user-friendly online tool that integrates a comprehensive VFG database with similarity matrix-based criteria for VFG prediction and annotation using metagenomic data without the need for assembly. RVFScan demonstrated superior performance compared to previous assembly-based and read-based VFG predictors, achieving a sensitivity of 97%, specificity of 98% and accuracy of 98%. We also conducted a large-scale analysis of 2425 clinical metagenomic datasets to investigate the utility of RVFScan, the species-specific VFG profiles and associations between VFGs and virulence phenotypes for 24 important pathogens were analyzed. By combining genomic comparisons and network analysis, we identified 53 VFGs with significantly higher abundances in hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae (hvKp) than in classical K. pneumoniae. Furthermore, a cohort of 1256 samples suspected of K. pneumoniae infection demonstrated that RVFScan could identify hvKp with a sensitivity of 90%, specificity of 100% and accuracy of 98.73%, with 90% of hvKp samples consistent with clinical diagnosis (Cohen's kappa, 0.94). RVFScan has the potential to detect VFGs in low-biomass and high-complexity clinical samples using metagenomic reads without assembly. This capability facilitates the rapid identification and targeted treatment of hvKp infections and holds promise for application to other hypervirulent pathogens.

Comparison of SARIMA model, Holt-winters model and ETS model in predicting the incidence of foodborne disease.

BACKGROUND: According to the World Health Organization, foodborne disease is a significant public health issue. We will choose the best model to predict foodborne disease by comparison, to provide evidence for government policies to prevent foodborne illness. METHODS: The foodborne disease monthly incidence data from June 2017 to April 2022 were obtained from the Chongqing Nan'an District Center for Disease Prevention and Control. Data from June 2017 to June 2021 were used to train the model, and the last 10 months of incidence were used for prediction and validation The incidence was fitted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, Holt-Winters model and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model. Besides, we used MSE, MAE, RMSE to determine which model fits better. RESULTS: During June 2017 to April 2022, the incidence of foodborne disease showed seasonal changes, the months with the highest incidence are June to November. The optimal model of SARIMA is SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0)12. The MSE, MAE, RMSE of the Holt-Winters model are 8.78, 2.33 and 2.96 respectively, which less than those of the SARIMA and ETS model, and its prediction curve is closer to the true value. The optimal model has good predictive performance. CONCLUSION: Based on the results, Holt-Winters model produces better prediction accuracy of the model.