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1.
Int J Cancer ; 2021 Mar 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33783822

RESUMO

Randomised clinical trials have shown the efficacy of computed tomography lung cancer screening, initiating discussions on whether and how to implement population-based screening programs. Due to smoking behaviour being the primary risk-factor for lung cancer and part of the criteria for determining screening eligibility, lung cancer screening is inherently risk-based. In fact, the selection of high-risk individuals has been shown to be essential in implementing lung cancer screening in a cost-effective manner. Furthermore, studies have shown that further risk-stratification may improve screening efficiency, allow personalisation of the screening interval and reduce health disparities. However, implementing risk-based lung cancer screening programs also requires overcoming a number of challenges. There are indications that risk-based approaches can negatively influence the trade-off between individual benefits and harms if not applied thoughtfully. Large-scale implementation of targeted, risk-based screening programs has been limited thus far. Consequently, questions remain on how to efficiently identify and invite high-risk individuals from the general population. Finally, while risk-based approaches may increase screening program efficiency, efficiency should be balanced with the overall impact of the screening program. In this review, we will address the opportunities and challenges in applying risk-stratification in different aspects of lung cancer screening programs, as well as the balance between screening program efficiency and impact.

2.
Radiology ; : 203633, 2021 Mar 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33724062

RESUMO

Background In the first (prevalent) supplemental MRI screening round of the Dense Tissue and Early Breast Neoplasm Screening (DENSE) trial, a considerable number of breast cancers were found at the cost of an increased false-positive rate (FPR). In incident screening rounds, a lower cancer detection rate (CDR) is expected due to a smaller pool of prevalent cancers, and a reduced FPR, due to the availability of prior MRI examinations. Purpose To investigate screening performance indicators of the second round (incidence round) of the DENSE trial. Materials and Methods The DENSE trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01315015) is embedded within the Dutch population-based biennial mammography screening program for women aged 50-75 years. MRI examinations were performed between December 2011 and January 2016. Women were eligible for the second round when they again had a negative screening mammogram 2 years after their first MRI. The recall rate, biopsy rate, CDR, FPR, positive predictive values, and distributions of tumor characteristics were calculated and compared with results of the first round using 95% CIs and χ2 tests. Results A total of 3436 women (median age, 56 years; interquartile range, 48-64 years) underwent a second MRI screening. The CDR was 5.8 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 3.8, 9.0) compared with 16.5 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 13.3, 20.5) in the first round. The FPR was 26.3 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 21.5, 32.3) in the second round versus 79.8 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 72.4, 87.9) in the first round. The positive predictive value for recall was 18% (20 of 110 participants recalled; 95% CI: 12.1, 26.4), and the positive predictive value for biopsy was 24% (20 of 84 participants who underwent biopsy; 95% CI: 16.0, 33.9), both comparable to that of the first round. All tumors in the second round were stage 0-I and node negative. Conclusion The incremental cancer detection rate in the second round was 5.8 per 1000 screening examinations-compared with 16.5 per 1000 screening examinations in the first round. This was accompanied by a strong reduction in the number of false-positive results. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Moy and Gao in this issue.

3.
JAMA ; 325(10): 988-997, 2021 03 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33687469

RESUMO

Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) is updating its 2013 lung cancer screening guidelines, which recommend annual screening for adults aged 55 through 80 years who have a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years. Objective: To inform the USPSTF guidelines by estimating the benefits and harms associated with various low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening strategies. Design, Setting, and Participants: Comparative simulation modeling with 4 lung cancer natural history models for individuals from the 1950 and 1960 US birth cohorts who were followed up from aged 45 through 90 years. Exposures: Screening with varying starting ages, stopping ages, and screening frequency. Eligibility criteria based on age, cumulative pack-years, and years since quitting smoking (risk factor-based) or on age and individual lung cancer risk estimation using risk prediction models with varying eligibility thresholds (risk model-based). A total of 1092 LDCT screening strategies were modeled. Full uptake and adherence were assumed for all scenarios. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated lung cancer deaths averted and life-years gained (benefits) compared with no screening. Estimated lifetime number of LDCT screenings, false-positive results, biopsies, overdiagnosed cases, and radiation-related lung cancer deaths (harms). Results: Efficient screening programs estimated to yield the most benefits for a given number of screenings were identified. Most of the efficient risk factor-based strategies started screening at aged 50 or 55 years and stopped at aged 80 years. The 2013 USPSTF-recommended criteria were not among the efficient strategies for the 1960 US birth cohort. Annual strategies with a minimum criterion of 20 pack-years of smoking were efficient and, compared with the 2013 USPSTF-recommended criteria, were estimated to increase screening eligibility (20.6%-23.6% vs 14.1% of the population ever eligible), lung cancer deaths averted (469-558 per 100 000 vs 381 per 100 000), and life-years gained (6018-7596 per 100 000 vs 4882 per 100 000). However, these strategies were estimated to result in more false-positive test results (1.9-2.5 per person screened vs 1.9 per person screened with the USPSTF strategy), overdiagnosed lung cancer cases (83-94 per 100 000 vs 69 per 100 000), and radiation-related lung cancer deaths (29.0-42.5 per 100 000 vs 20.6 per 100 000). Risk model-based vs risk factor-based strategies were estimated to be associated with more benefits and fewer radiation-related deaths but more overdiagnosed cases. Conclusions and Relevance: Microsimulation modeling studies suggested that LDCT screening for lung cancer compared with no screening may increase lung cancer deaths averted and life-years gained when optimally targeted and implemented. Screening individuals at aged 50 or 55 years through aged 80 years with 20 pack-years or more of smoking exposure was estimated to result in more benefits than the 2013 USPSTF-recommended criteria and less disparity in screening eligibility by sex and race/ethnicity.


Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico por imagem , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Idoso , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/efeitos adversos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/normas , Humanos , Pulmão/diagnóstico por imagem , Neoplasias Pulmonares/mortalidade , Neoplasias Pulmonares/prevenção & controle , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Medição de Risco , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Fumar , Abandono do Hábito de Fumar , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X/efeitos adversos , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X/métodos
4.
Cancer Med ; 10(8): 2897-2903, 2021 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33710779

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: To determine, using testicular germ cell cancer screening as an example, whether screening can also be effective for cancers with a good prognosis. METHODS: Based on the Dutch incidence, stage distribution, and survival and mortality data of testicular germ cell cancer, we developed a microsimulation model. This model simulates screening scenarios varying in screening age, interval, self-examination or screening by the general practitioner (GP), and screening of a defined high-risk group (cryptorchidism). For each scenario, the number of clinically and screen-detected cancers by stage, referrals, testicular germ cell cancer deaths, and life-years gained were projected. RESULTS: Annual self-examination from age 20 to 30 years resulted in 767 cancers detected per 100,000 men followed over life-time, of which 123 (16%) by screening. In this scenario, 19.2 men died from the disease, 4.7 (20%) less than without screening, and 230 life-years were gained. Around 14,000 visits to the GP and 2080 visits to an urologist were required. This scenario resulted in the most favorable ratio between extra visits to the GP or urologist and deaths prevented (1418 and 116 respectively). Monthly screening, or screening until age 40 resulted in less favorable ratios. Self-examination by only the high-risk population prevented 1.0 death per 100,00 men in the general population. In all scenarios, 46-50 life-years were gained for each testicular germ cell cancer death prevented. CONCLUSION: Despite the good prognosis, self-examination at young ages for testicular germ cell cancer could be considered.

5.
Value Health ; 24(3): 353-360, 2021 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33641769

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the impact of mammography-based screening on the quality of life, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted or quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained can be used. We aimed to assess whether the use of DALYs averted or QALYs gained will lead to different cost-effective screening strategies. METHODS: Using the microsimulation model MISCAN, we simulated different breast cancer screening strategies varying in starting age (starting at 45, 47, and 50 years), stopping age (stopping at 69, 72, and 74 years), and frequency (annual [A], biennial [B], combination of both [A + B], and triennial [T]). In total, we defined 24 different breast cancer screening strategies, including no screening as a reference strategy. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and compared which strategies were on the efficiency frontiers for DALYs and QALYs. RESULTS: Breast cancer screening averted between 46.00 and 105.58 DALYs and gained between 28.69 and 64.50 QALYs per 1000 women. For DALYs there were 5 strategies on the efficiency frontier (T50-69, T50-74, T45-74, B45-74, and A45-74). The same strategies plus one (B45-72) were on the efficiency frontier for QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: Using DALYs averted instead of QALYs gained to assess the effects on quality of life from breast cancer screening in the Dutch population yields differences in ICERs, but almost the same strategies were on the efficiency frontiers. Whether the choice in outcome measure leads to a difference in optimal policy depends on the cost-effectiveness threshold.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama/diagnóstico , Análise Custo-Benefício/métodos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Países Baixos , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida
6.
J Natl Cancer Inst ; 2021 Jan 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33515225

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: A paucity of research addresses breast cancer screening strategies for women at lower-than-average breast cancer risk. The aim of this study was to examine screening harms and benefits among women aged 50-74 years at lower-than-average breast cancer risk by breast density. METHODS: Three well-established, validated Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network models were used to estimate the lifetime benefits and harms of different screening scenarios, varying by screening interval (biennial, triennial). Breast cancer deaths averted, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years gained, false-positives, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis were assessed by relative risk (RR) level (0.6, 0.7, 0.85, 1 [average risk]) and breast density category, for US women born in 1970. RESULTS: Screening benefits decreased proportionally with decreasing risk and with lower breast density. False-positives, unnecessary biopsies, and the percentage overdiagnosis also varied substantially by breast density category; false-positives and unnecessary biopsies were highest in the heterogeneously dense category. For women with fatty or scattered fibroglandular breast density and a relative risk of no more than 0.85, the additional deaths averted and life-years gained were small with biennial vs triennial screening. For these groups, undergoing 4 additional screens (screening biennially [13 screens] vs triennially [9 screens]) averted no more than 1 additional breast cancer death and gained no more than 16 life-years and no more than 10 quality-adjusted life-years per 1000 women but resulted in up to 232 more false-positives per 1000 women. CONCLUSION: Triennial screening from age 50 to 74 years may be a reasonable screening strategy for women with lower-than-average breast cancer risk and fatty or scattered fibroglandular breast density.

7.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 1801, 2021 Jan 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33469144

RESUMO

The benefit of prostate cancer screening is counterbalanced by the risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. The use of a multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) test after a positive prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test followed by magnetic resonance imaging-guided biopsy (MRIGB) may reduce these harms. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of mpMRI and MRIGB vs the regular screening pathway in a population-based prostate cancer screening setting. A micro-simulation model was used to predict the effects of regular PSA screening (men with elevated PSA followed by TRUSGB) and MRI based screening (men with elevated PSA followed by mpMRI and MRIGB). We predicted reduction of overdiagnosis, harm-benefit ratio (overdiagnosis per cancer death averted), reduction in number of biopsies, detection of clinically significant cancer, prostate cancer death averted, life-years gained (LYG), and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained for both strategies. A univariate sensitivity analysis and threshold analysis were performed to assess uncertainty around the test sensitivity parameters used in the MRI strategy.In the MRI pathway, we predicted a 43% reduction in the risk of overdiagnosis, compared to the regular pathway. Similarly a lower harm-benefit ratio (overdiagnosis per cancer death averted) was predicted for this strategy compared to the regular screening pathway (1.0 vs 1.8 respectively). Prostate cancer mortality reduction, LY and QALYs gained were also slightly increased in the MRI pathway than the regular screening pathway. Furthermore, 30% of men with a positive PSA test could avoid a biopsy as compared to the regular screening pathway. Compared to regular PSA screening, the use of mpMRI as a triage test followed by MRIGB can substantially reduce the risk of overdiagnosis and improve the harm-benefit balance, while maximizing prostate cancer mortality reduction and QALYs gained.

8.
Breast ; 56: 1-6, 2021 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33515770

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Several studies have investigated MRI breast cancer screening in women at increased risk, but little is known about their preferences. In this study, experiences, expectations and preferences for MRI and mammography were evaluated among women undergoing screening with MRI and/or mammography in the randomized FaMRIsc trial. METHODS: A 17-item questionnaire was sent to 412 women in the FaMRIsc trial. Participants were aged 30-55 years, had a ≥20% cumulative lifetime risk, but no BRCA1/2 or TP53 gene variant, and were screened outside the population-based screening program. Women received annual mammography (mammography-group), or annual MRI and biennial mammography (MRI-group). We asked whether women trust the screening outcome, what they consider as (dis)advantages, which screening they prefer and what they expect of the early detection by the screening tools. RESULTS: 255 (62%) women completed our questionnaire. The high chance of early cancer detection was the most important advantage of MRI screening (MRI-group: 95%; mammography-group: 74%), while this was also the main advantage of mammography (MRI-group: 57%; mammography-group: 72%). Most important disadvantages of MRI were the small tunnel and the contrast fluid (for 23-36%), and of mammography were its painfulness and X-radiation (for 48-60%). Almost the whole MRI-group and half the mammography-group preferred screening with MRI (either alone or with mammography). DISCUSSION: Most women would prefer screening with MRI. The way women think of MRI and mammography is influenced by the screening strategy they are undergoing. Our outcomes can be used for creating information brochures when MRI will be implemented for more women.

9.
Int J Cancer ; 148(2): 406-418, 2021 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32683673

RESUMO

Currently, all European countries offer some form of breast cancer screening. Nevertheless, disparities exist in the status of implementation, attendance and the extent of opportunistic screening. As a result, breast cancer screening has not yet reached its full potential. We examined how many breast cancer deaths could be prevented if all European countries would biennially screen all women aged 50 to 69 for breast cancer. We calculated the number of breast cancer deaths already prevented due to screening as well as the number of breast cancer deaths which could be additionally prevented if the total examination coverage (organised plus opportunistic) would reach 100%. The calculations are based on total examination coverage in women aged 50 to 69, the annual number of breast cancer deaths for women aged 50 to 74 and the maximal possible mortality reduction from breast cancer, assuming similar effectiveness of organised and opportunistic screening. The total examination coverage ranged from 49% (East), 62% (West), 64% (North) to 69% (South). Yearly 21 680 breast cancer deaths have already been prevented due to mammography screening. If all countries would reach 100% examination coverage, 12 434 additional breast cancer deaths could be prevented annually, with the biggest potential in Eastern Europe. With maximum coverage, 23% of their breast cancer deaths could be additionally prevented, while in Western Europe it could be 21%, in Southern Europe 15% and in Northern Europe 9%. Our study illustrates that by further optimising screening coverage, the number of breast cancer deaths in Europe can be lowered substantially.

10.
Ear Hear ; 2020 Dec 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33306547

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Early detection of neonatal hearing impairment moderates the negative effects on speech and language development. Universal neonatal hearing screening protocols vary in tests used, timing of testing and the number of stages of screening. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of various protocols in the preparation of implementation of neonatal hearing screening in Albania. DESIGN: A micro-simulation model was developed using input on demography, natural history of neonatal hearing impairment, screening characteristics and treatment. Parameter values were derived from a review of the literature and expert opinion. We simulated multiple protocols using otoacoustic emissions (OAE) and automated auditory brainstem response (aABR), varying the test type, timing and number of stages. Cost-effectiveness was analyzed over a life-time horizon. RESULTS: The two best protocols for well infants were OAE followed by aABR (i.e., two-stage OAE-aABR) testing in the maternity ward and single-aABR testing. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were &OV0556;4181 and &OV0556;78,077 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. Single-aABR screening led to more cases being detected compared to a two-stage screening program. However, it also resulted in higher referral rates, which increased the total costs of diagnostics. Multi-staged screening decreased referral rates but may increase the number of missed cases due to false-negative test results and nonattendance. CONCLUSIONS: Only the 2-stage OAE-aABR (maternity ward) protocol was below the willingness-to-pay threshold of &OV0556;10,413 for Albania, as suggested by the World Health Organization, and was found to be cost-effective. This study is among the few to assess neonatal hearing screening programs over a life-time horizon and the first to predict the cost-effectiveness of multiple screening scenarios.

11.
Gynecol Oncol ; 2020 Nov 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33199028

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Eastern European countries are contemplating to introduce the high-risk Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-test as the primary screening test for their cervical cancer screening programme, but its optimal protocol is yet unknown. The aim of this study was to compare the costs, effects and cost-effectiveness of different primary HPV-screening protocols in Eastern Europe, using Slovenia as an example and with respect of local preferences for screening. METHODS: We evaluated 968 HPV-screening protocols, which varied by screening ages, triage tests (i.e. cytology, repeat HPV and/or genotyping) and strategy for women under 35 years old, using the microsimulation model MISCAN-Cervix. RESULTS: Within the subset of strategies that would be acceptable for Slovenian women, the optimal HPV-screening protocol is to start with two cytology tests at age 25 and 28 and switch to 5-yearly HPV screening from age 30 to 65. When also other protocols were considered, the optimal screening strategy would be 5-yearly HPV screening from age 30 to 65 only, improving the cost-effectiveness with 5%. Adding genotyping in the triage algorithm consistently improved cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the results for other situations in Eastern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Despite differences in cervical cancer epidemiology between Eastern and Western European regions where HPV screening was evaluated, the optimal screening protocol was found to be very similar. Furthermore, strategies that were considered socially acceptable to the population were found to be almost as cost-effective as less acceptable strategies and can therefore be considered a viable alternative to prevent opportunistic screening.

12.
Endosc Int Open ; 8(10): E1405-E1413, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33015344

RESUMO

Background and study aims Low adherence to the Dutch guideline for colonoscopy surveillance after polypectomy led to release of a new guideline in 2013. This new guideline was risk-stratified at a more detailed level than the previous one to achieve more efficient use of colonoscopy resources. This study assessed the feasibility of the risk-stratified guideline by evaluating correct interpretation of and adherence to this guideline. Methods Based on semi-structured interviews with 10 gastroenterologists, we developed an online survey to evaluate gastroenterologists' recommendations for surveillance in 15 example cases of patients with polyps. If recommended intervals differed from the new guideline, respondents were asked to indicate their motives for doing so. Results Ninety-one of 592 (15.4 %) invited gastroenterologists responded to at least one case, of whom 84 (14.2 %) completed the survey. Gastroenterologists gave a correct recommendation in a median of 10 of 15 cases and adherence per case ranged from 14 % to 95 % (median case 76 %). The two cases that addressed management of serrated polyps were least often answered correctly (14 % and 28 % correct answers). Discrepancies were mainly due to misinterpretation of the guideline with respect to serrated polyps (48 %) or misreading of the questions (30 %). Conclusions Median adherence to the updated colonoscopy surveillance guideline of 76 % seems reasonable, and is higher than adherence to the previous guideline (range: 22 %-80 %, median 59 %). This shows that detailed (more complex) risk stratification for designation of a surveillance interval is feasible. Adherence could potentially be improved by clarifying correct interpretation of serrated polyps.

15.
Cancer Med ; 9(20): 7742-7750, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32813910

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer screening incurs a high risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. An organized and age-targeted screening strategy may reduce the associated harms while retaining or enhancing the benefits. METHODS: Using a micro-simulation analysis (MISCAN) model, we assessed the harms, benefits, and cost-effectiveness of 230 prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening strategies in a Dutch population. Screening strategies were varied by screening start age (50, 51, 52, 53, 54, and 55), stop age (51-69), and intervals (1, 2, 3, 4, 8, and single test). Costs and effects of each screening strategy were compared with a no-screening scenario. RESULTS: The most optimum strategy would be screening with 3-year intervals at ages 55-64 resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €19 733 per QALY. This strategy predicted a 27% prostate cancer mortality reduction and 28 life years gained (LYG) per 1000 men; 36% of screen-detected men were overdiagnosed. Sensitivity analyses did not substantially alter the optimal screening strategy. CONCLUSIONS: PSA screening beyond age 64 is not cost-effective and associated with a higher risk of overdiagnosis. Similarly, starting screening before age 55 is not a favored strategy based on our cost-effectiveness analysis.

16.
Pharmacoeconomics ; 38(11): 1187-1200, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32754857

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Using appropriate health state utility values (HSUVs) is critical for economic evaluation of new lung cancer interventions, such as low-dose computed tomography screening and immunotherapy. Therefore, we provide a systematic review and meta-analysis of community- and choice-based HSUVs for lung cancer. METHODS: On 6 March 2017, we conducted a systematic search of the following databases: Embase, Ovid MEDLINE, Web of Science, Cochrane CENTRAL, Google Scholar, and the School of Health and Related Research Health Utility Database. The search was updated on 17 April 2019. Studies reporting mean or median lung cancer-specific HSUVs including a measure of variance were included and assessed for relevance and validity. Studies with high relevance (i.e. community- and choice-based) were further analysed. Mean HSUVs were pooled using random-effects models for all stages, stages I-II, and stages III-IV. For studies with a control group, we calculated the disutility due to lung cancer. A sensitivity analysis included only the methodologically most comparable studies (i.e. using the EQ-5D instrument and matching tariff). Subgroup analyses were conducted by time to death, histology, sex, age, treatment modality, treatment line, and progression status. RESULTS: We identified and analysed 27 studies of high relevance. The pooled HSUV was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61-0.75) for all stages, 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.86) for stages I-II, and 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.73) for stages III-IV (p = 0.02 vs. stage I-II). Heterogeneity was present in each pooled analysis (p < 0.01; I2 = 92-99%). Disutility due to lung cancer ranged from 0.11 (95% CI 0.05-0.17) to 0.27 (95% CI 0.18-0.36). In the sensitivity analysis with the methodologically most comparable studies, stage-specific HSUVs varied by country. Such studies were only identified for Canada, China, Spain, the UK, the USA, Denmark, Germany, and Thailand. In the subgroup analysis by time to death, HSUVs for metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer ranged from 0.83 (95% CI 0.82-0.85) at ≥ 360 days from death to 0.56 (95% CI 0.46-0.66) at < 30 days from death. Among patients with metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer, HSUVs were lower for those receiving third- or fourth-line treatment and for those with progressed disease. Results of subgroup analyses by histology, sex, age, and treatment modality were ambiguous. CONCLUSIONS: The presented evidence supports the use of stage- and country-specific HSUVs. However, such HSUVs are unavailable for most countries. Therefore, our pooled HSUVs may provide the best available stage-specific HSUVs for most countries. For metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer, adjusting for the decreased HSUVs in the last year of life may be considered, as may further stratification of HSUVs by treatment line or progression status. If required, HSUVs for other health states may be identified using our comprehensive breakdown of study characteristics.

17.
Radiology ; 297(1): 40-48, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32749212

RESUMO

BackgroundDigital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a promising screening test, but its outcomes and cost-effectiveness remain uncertain.PurposeTo determine if biennial DBT is cost-effective in a screening setting, when compared with digital mammography (DM) in the Netherlands, and to quantify the uncertainty.Materials and MethodsIn this study, performed from March 2018 to February 2019, the MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis model was used to conduct a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA), consisting of 10 000 model runs with 1 000 000 women simulated per run. The Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis package and the Sheffield Accelerated Value of Information tool were used to process PSA outcomes. Two simulated cohorts born in 1970 were invited to undergo biennial screening between ages 50 and 74 years-one cohort was assigned to DM screening, and one was assigned to DBT screening. DM input parameters were based on data from the Dutch breast cancer screening program. DBT parameters were based on literature and expert opinion. Willingness-to-pay thresholds of €20 000 ($22 000) and €35 000 ($38 500) per life-year gained (LYG) were considered. Effects and costs were discounted at 3.5% per year.ResultsDBT resulted in a gain of 13 additional life-years per 1000 women invited to screening (7% increase, 13 of 193), followed over lifetime, compared with DM and led to 2% (four of 159) fewer false-positive results. DBT screening led to incremental discounted lifetime effects of 5.09 LYGs (95% confidence interval: -0.80, 9.70) and an increase in lifetime costs of €137 555 ($151 311) per 1000 women (95% confidence interval: €31 093 [$34 202], €263 537 [$289 891]) compared with DM, resulting in a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €27 023 ($29 725) per LYG. The probability of DBT being more cost-effective was 0.36 at €20 000 and 0.66 at €35 000 per LYG.ConclusionSwitching from digital mammography to biennial digital breast tomosynthesis is not cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20 000 per life-year gained, but digital breast tomosynthesis has a higher probability of being more cost-effective than digital mammography at a threshold of €35 000 per life-year gained.© RSNA, 2020Online supplemental material is available for this article.See also the editorial by Slanetz in this issue.

18.
J Natl Cancer Inst ; 2020 Aug 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32853342

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: We assessed the clinical utility of a first-degree breast cancer family history (FH) and polygenic risk score (PRS) to inform screening decisions among women aged 30-50 years. METHOD: Two established breast cancer models evaluated digital mammography screening strategies in the 1985 US birth cohort by risk groups defined by family history and polygenic risk score (PRS) based on 313-single nucleotide polymorphism. Strategies varied in initiation age (30, 35, 40, 45, 50) and interval (annual, hybrid, biennial [B], triennial). The benefits, breast cancer deaths averted, life years gained (LYG) and harms, false-positive (FP) mammograms, overdiagnoses, were compared those seen with three established screening guidelines. RESULTS: Women with a breast cancer FH who initiate biennial screening at age 40 years (vs. 50) had a 36% (model range: 29%-40%) increase in LYG and 20% (model range: 16%-24%) more breast cancer deaths averted, but 21% (model range: 17%-23%) more overdiagnoses and 63% (model range: 62%-64%) more false positives. Screening tailored to PRS vs. biennial 50-74 screening had smaller positive effects on LYG (20%) and breast cancer deaths averted (11%) but also smaller increases in overdiagnoses (10%) and false positives (26%). Combined use of FH and PRS vs. B50-74 had the greatest increase in LYG (29%) and breast cancer deaths averted (18%). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that breast cancer family history and polygenic risk could guide screening decisions before age 50 years among women at increased risk for breast cancer, but should consider expected increases in overdiagnoses and false positives.

19.
JAMA Oncol ; 6(9): 1381-1389, 2020 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32729887

RESUMO

Importance: For women with a 20% or more familial risk of breast cancer without a known BRCA1/2 (BRCA1, OMIM 113705; and BRCA2, OMIM 114480) or TP53 (OMIM 151623) variant, screening guidelines vary substantially, and cost-effectiveness analyses are scarce. Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening strategies for women with a 20% or more familial risk for breast cancer without a known BRCA1/2 or TP53 variant. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this economic evaluation, conducted from February 1, 2019, to May 25, 2020, microsimulation modeling was used to estimate costs and effectiveness on a lifetime horizon from age 25 years until death of MRI screening among a cohort of 10 million Dutch women with a 20% or more familial risk for breast cancer without a known BRCA1/2 or TP53 variant. A Dutch screening setting was modeled. Most data were obtained from the randomized Familial MRI Screening (FaMRIsc) trial, which included Dutch women aged 30 to 55 years. A health care payer perspective was applied. Interventions: Several screening protocols with varying ages and intervals including those of the randomized FaMRIsc trial, consisting of the mammography (Mx) protocol (annual mammography and clinical breast examination) and the MRI protocol (annual MRI and clinical breast examination plus biennial mammography). Main Outcomes and Measures: Costs, life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and discounted by 3%. A threshold of €22 000 (US $24 795.87) per QALY was applied. Results: This economic evaluation modeling study estimated that, on a lifetime horizon per 1000 women with the Mx protocol of the FaMRIsc trial, 346 breast cancers would be detected, and 49 women were estimated to die from breast cancer, resulting in 22 885 QALYs and total costs of €7 084 767 (US $7 985 134.61). The MRI protocol resulted in 79 additional QALYs and additional €2 657 266 (US $2 994 964.65). Magnetic resonance imaging performed only every 18 months between the ages of 35 and 60 years followed by the national screening program was considered optimal, with an ICER of €21 380 (US $24 097.08) compared with the previous nondominated strategy in the ranking, when applying the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold. Annual screening alternating MRI and mammography between the ages of 35 and 60 years, followed by the national screening program, gave similar outcomes. Higher thresholds would favor annual MRI screening. The ICER was most sensitive to the unit cost of MRI and the utility value for ductal carcinoma in situ and localized breast cancer. Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that MRI screening every 18 months between the ages of 35 and 60 years for women with a family history of breast cancer is cost-effective within the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold for all densities. Higher thresholds would favor annual MRI screening. These outcomes support a change of current screening guidelines for this specific risk group and support MRI screening.

20.
Cancers (Basel) ; 12(6)2020 Jun 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32599792

RESUMO

Lung cancer screening (LCS) with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) was demonstrated in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) to reduce mortality from the disease. European mortality data has recently become available from the Nelson randomised controlled trial, which confirmed lung cancer mortality reductions by 26% in men and 39-61% in women. Recent studies in Europe and the USA also showed positive results in screening workers exposed to asbestos. All European experts attending the "Initiative for European Lung Screening (IELS)"-a large international group of physicians and other experts concerned with lung cancer-agreed that LDCT-LCS should be implemented in Europe. However, the economic impact of LDCT-LCS and guidelines for its effective and safe implementation still need to be formulated. To this purpose, the IELS was asked to prepare recommendations to implement LCS and examine outstanding issues. A subgroup carried out a comprehensive literature review on LDCT-LCS and presented findings at a meeting held in Milan in November 2018. The present recommendations reflect that consensus was reached.

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