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1.
Mayo Clin Proc ; 2021 Nov 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34782125

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To develop an electronic health record (EHR)-based risk tool that provides point-of-care estimates of diabetes risk to support targeting interventions to patients most likely to benefit. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A risk prediction model was developed and validated in a large observational database of patients with an index visit date between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2016, with treatment effect estimates from risk-based reanalysis of clinical trial data. The risk model development cohort included 1.1 million patients with prediabetes from the OptumLabs Data Warehouse (OLDW); the validation cohort included a distinct sample of 1.1 million patients in OLDW. The randomly assigned clinical trial cohort included 3081 people from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) study. RESULTS: Eleven variables reliably obtainable from the EHR were used to predict diabetes risk. This model validated well in the OLDW (C statistic = 0.76; observed 3-year diabetes rate was 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7 to 1.9) in the lowest-risk quarter and 19.6% (19.4 to 19.8) in the highest-risk quarter). In the DPP, the hazard ratio (HR) for lifestyle modification was constant across all levels of risk (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.53), whereas the HR for metformin was highly risk dependent (HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.61 to 2.0 in the lowest-risk quarter vs HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.59 in the highest-risk quarter). Fifty-three percent of the benefits of population-wide dissemination of the DPP lifestyle modification and 73% of the benefits of population-wide metformin therapy can be obtained by targeting the highest-risk quarter of patients. CONCLUSION: The Tufts-Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness DPP Risk model is an EHR-compatible tool that might support targeted diabetes prevention to more efficiently realize the benefits of the DPP interventions.

2.
J Neurotrauma ; 38(23): 3315-3331, 2021 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34617454

RESUMO

Men and women differ in outcomes following mild traumatic brain injury (TBI). In the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study, we previously found that women had worse 6-month functional outcome (Glasgow Outcome Score Extended [GOSE]), health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and mental health following mild TBI. The aim of this study was to investigate whether those differences were mediated by psychiatric history, gender-related sociodemographic variables, or by care pathways. We analyzed sex/gender differences in 6-month GOSE, generic and TBI-specific HRQoL, and post-concussion and mental health symptoms using three sets of mediators: psychiatric history, sociodemographic variables (living alone, living with children, education and employment status/job category), and care-pathways (referral to study hospital and discharge destination after emergency department); while controlling for a substantial number of potential confounders (pre-injury health and injury-related characteristics). We included 1842 men and 1022 women (16+) with a Glasgow Coma Score 13-15, among whom 83% had GOSE available and about 60% other 6-month outcomes. We used natural effects models to decompose the total effect of sex/gender on the outcomes into indirect effects that passed through the specified mediators and the remaining direct effects. In our study population, women had worse outcomes and these were only partly explained by psychiatric history, and not considerably explained by sociodemographic variables nor by care pathways. Factors other than differences in specified variables seem to underlie observed differences between men and women in outcomes after mild TBI. Future studies should explore more aspects of gender roles and identity and biological factors underpinning sex and gender differences in TBI outcomes.

3.
EuroIntervention ; 2021 Oct 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34669586

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Creatinine clearance (CrCl) is an independent determinant of mortality in predictive models of revascularisation outcomes for complex coronary artery disease. AIMS: This study aimed to investigate the impact of preprocedural biological markers on 10-year mortality following coronary revascularisation. METHODS: The SYNTAX Extended Survival (SYNTAXES) study evaluated the 10-year vital status follow-up of 1,800 patients with de novo three-vessel (3VD) and/or left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD) randomised to include percutaneous or surgical coronary revascularisation. The associations between mortality and preprocedural C-reactive protein (CRP), haemoglobin, HbA1c, CrCl, fasting triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were analysed. RESULTS: Out of 1,800 patients, 460 patients died before the 10-year follow-up. CRP, HbA1c and CrCl with threshold values of ≥2 mg/L, ≥6% (42 mmol/mol) and <60 ml/min, respectively, were associated with 10-year all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.35 [1.01-1.82], 1.51 [1.16-1.95], and 1.46 [1.07-2.00], respectively). There was no significant interaction between the biological markers on all-cause mortality and the type of revascularisation. Preprocedural lipid markers were not significantly associated with 10-year all-cause death, but the non-use of statins was a determinant factor of worse prognosis (adjusted confidence interval [95% confidence interval]: 1.68 [1.26-2.25]). CONCLUSIONS: Preprocedural biomarkers, such as CRP and HbA1c, are associated with long-term mortality post revascularisation, regardless of the revascularisation technique. Conventional lipidic biomarkers associated with high-risk of cardiovascular events seem to be effectively mitigated by the long-term use of statins, whereas the non-use of statins was a factor of a worse prognosis, emphasising the importance of pharmacological treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: SYNTAXES ClinicalTrials.gov reference: NCT03417050. SYNTAX ClinicalTrials.gov reference: NCT00114972.

4.
BMJ Open ; 11(9): e051468, 2021 09 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34531219

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Develop simple and valid models for predicting mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients who present at the emergency department (ED) with suspected COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective. SETTING: Secondary care in four large Dutch hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who presented at the ED and were admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. We used 5831 first-wave patients who presented between March and August 2020 for model development and 3252 second-wave patients who presented between September and December 2020 for model validation. OUTCOME MEASURES: We developed separate logistic regression models for in-hospital death and for need for ICU admission, both within 28 days after hospital admission. Based on prior literature, we considered quickly and objectively obtainable patient characteristics, vital parameters and blood test values as predictors. We assessed model performance by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and by calibration plots. RESULTS: Of 5831 first-wave patients, 629 (10.8%) died within 28 days after admission. ICU admission was fully recorded for 2633 first-wave patients in 2 hospitals, with 214 (8.1%) ICU admissions within 28 days. A simple model-COVID outcome prediction in the emergency department (COPE)-with age, respiratory rate, C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin and urea captured most of the ability to predict death. COPE was well calibrated and showed good discrimination for mortality in second-wave patients (AUC in four hospitals: 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86); 0.82 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.90); 0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.88); 0.83 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.86)). COPE was also able to identify patients at high risk of needing ICU admission in second-wave patients (AUC in two hospitals: 0.84 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.90); 0.81 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.95)). CONCLUSIONS: COPE is a simple tool that is well able to predict mortality and need for ICU admission in patients who present to the ED with suspected COVID-19 and may help patients and doctors in decision making.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Hospitais , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2
5.
J Am Coll Cardiol ; 78(12): 1227-1238, 2021 Sep 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34531023

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The SYNTAX score II 2020 (SSII-2020) was derived from cross correlation and externally validated in randomized trials to predict death and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACE) following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with 3-vessel disease (3VD) and/or left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD). OBJECTIVES: The authors aimed to investigate the SSII-2020's value in identifying the safest modality of revascularization in a non-randomized setting. METHODS: Five-year mortality and MACE were assessed in 7,362 patients with 3VD and/or LMCAD enrolled in a Japanese PCI/CABG registry. The discriminative abilities of the SSII-2020 were assessed using Harrell's C statistic. Agreement between observed and predicted event rates following PCI or CABG and treatment benefit (absolute risk difference [ARD]) for these outcomes were assessed by calibration plots. RESULTS: The SSII-2020 for 5-year mortality well predicted the prognosis after PCI and CABG (C-index = 0.72, intercept = -0.11, slope = 0.92). When patients were grouped according to the predicted 5-year mortality ARD, <4.5% (equipoise of PCI and CABG) and ≥4.5% (CABG better), the observed mortality rates after PCI and CABG were not significantly different in patients with lower predicted ARD (observed ARD: 2.1% [95% CI: -0.4% to 4.4%]), and the significant difference in survival in favor of CABG was observed in patients with higher predicted ARD (observed ARD: 9.7% [95% CI: 6.1%-13.3%]). For MACE, the SSII-2020 could not recommend a specific treatment with sufficient accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: The SSII-2020 for predicting 5-year death has the potential to support decision making on revascularization in patients with 3VD and/or LMCAD.

6.
BMC Emerg Med ; 21(1): 93, 2021 08 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34362302

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Prehospital triage protocols typically try to select patients with Injury Severity Score (ISS) above 15 for direct transportation to a Level-1 trauma center. However, ISS does not necessarily discriminate between patients who benefit from immediate care at Level-1 trauma centers. The aim of this study was to assess which patients benefit from direct transportation to Level-1 trauma centers. METHODS: We used the American National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB), a retrospective observational cohort. All adult patients (ISS > 3) between 2015 and 2016 were included. Patients who were self-presenting or had isolated limb injury were excluded. We used logistic regression to assess the association of direct transportation to Level-1 trauma centers with in-hospital mortality adjusted for clinically relevant confounders. We used this model to define benefit as predicted probability of mortality associated with transportation to a non-Level-1 trauma center minus predicted probability associated with transportation to a Level-1 trauma center. We used a threshold of 1% as absolute benefit. Potential interaction terms with transportation to Level-1 trauma centers were included in a penalized logistic regression model to study which patients benefit. RESULTS: We included 388,845 trauma patients from 232 Level-1 centers and 429 Level-2/3 centers. A small beneficial effect was found for direct transportation to Level-1 trauma centers (adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.96, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.92-0.99) which disappeared when comparing Level-1 and 2 versus Level-3 trauma centers. In the risk approach, predicted benefit ranged between 0 and 1%. When allowing for interactions, 7% of the patients (n = 27,753) had more than 1% absolute benefit from direct transportation to Level-1 trauma centers. These patients had higher AIS Head and Thorax scores, lower GCS and lower SBP. A quarter of the patients with ISS > 15 were predicted to benefit from transportation to Level-1 centers (n = 26,522, 22%). CONCLUSIONS: Benefit of transportation to a Level-1 trauma centers is quite heterogeneous across patients and the difference between Level-1 and Level-2 trauma centers is small. In particular, patients with head injury and signs of shock may benefit from care in a Level-1 trauma center. Future prehospital triage models should incorporate more complete risk profiles.


Assuntos
Transferência de Pacientes , Centros de Traumatologia , Triagem , Ferimentos e Lesões , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Escala de Gravidade do Ferimento , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Ferimentos e Lesões/diagnóstico
7.
EuroIntervention ; 2021 Aug 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34374343

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The radial artery is recommended by international guidelines as the default vascular access in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) managed invasively. However, crossover from radial to femoral access is required in 4-10% of cases and has been associated with worse outcomes. No standardised algorithm exists to predict the risk of radial crossover. AIMS: We sought to derive and externally validate a risk score to predict radial crossover in patients with ACS managed invasively. METHODS: The derivation cohort consisted of 4,197 patients with ACS undergoing invasive management via the randomly allocated radial access from the MATRIX trial. Using logistic regression, we selected predictors of radial crossover and developed a numerical risk score. External validation was accomplished among 3,451 and 491 ACS patients managed invasively and randomised to radial access from the RIVAL and RIFLE-STEACS trials, respectively. RESULTS: The MATRIX score (age, height, smoking, renal failure, prior coronary artery bypass grafting, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, Killip class, radial expertise) showed a c-index for radial crossover of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.67-0.75) in the derivation cohort. Discrimination ability was modest in the RIVAL (c-index: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.59-0.67) and RIFLE-STEACS (c-index: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.57-0.75) cohorts. A cut-off of ≥41 points was selected to identify patients at high risk of radial crossover. CONCLUSIONS: The MATRIX score is a simple eight-item risk score which provides a standardised tool for the prediction of radial crossover among patients with ACS managed invasively. This tool can assist operators in anticipating and better addressing difficulties related to transradial procedures, potentially improving outcomes.

8.
Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes ; 14(8): e007858, 2021 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34340529

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There are many clinical prediction models (CPMs) available to inform treatment decisions for patients with cardiovascular disease. However, the extent to which they have been externally tested, and how well they generally perform has not been broadly evaluated. METHODS: A SCOPUS citation search was run on March 22, 2017 to identify external validations of cardiovascular CPMs in the Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness CPM Registry. We assessed the extent of external validation, performance heterogeneity across databases, and explored factors associated with model performance, including a global assessment of the clinical relatedness between the derivation and validation data. RESULTS: We identified 2030 external validations of 1382 CPMs. Eight hundred seven (58%) of the CPMs in the Registry have never been externally validated. On average, there were 1.5 validations per CPM (range, 0-94). The median external validation area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.73 (25th-75th percentile [interquartile range (IQR)], 0.66-0.79), representing a median percent decrease in discrimination of -11.1% (IQR, -32.4% to +2.7%) compared with performance on derivation data. 81% (n=1333) of validations reporting area under the receiver operating characteristic curve showed discrimination below that reported in the derivation dataset. 53% (n=983) of the validations report some measure of CPM calibration. For CPMs evaluated more than once, there was typically a large range of performance. Of 1702 validations classified by relatedness, the percent change in discrimination was -3.7% (IQR, -13.2 to 3.1) for closely related validations (n=123), -9.0 (IQR, -27.6 to 3.9) for related validations (n=862), and -17.2% (IQR, -42.3 to 0) for distantly related validations (n=717; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Many published cardiovascular CPMs have never been externally validated, and for those that have, apparent performance during development is often overly optimistic. A single external validation appears insufficient to broadly understand the performance heterogeneity across different settings.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Doenças Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/terapia , Humanos , Curva ROC
9.
Qual Life Res ; 2021 Jul 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34331197

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of impairments affecting Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). We aimed to identify predictors of and develop prognostic models for HRQoL following TBI. METHODS: We used data from the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) Core study, including patients with a clinical diagnosis of TBI and an indication for computed tomography presenting within 24 h of injury. The primary outcome measures were the SF-36v2 physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) health component summary scores and the Quality of Life after Traumatic Brain Injury (QOLIBRI) total score 6 months post injury. We considered 16 patient and injury characteristics in linear regression analyses. Model performance was expressed as proportion of variance explained (R2) and corrected for optimism with bootstrap procedures. RESULTS: 2666 Adult patients completed the HRQoL questionnaires. Most were mild TBI patients (74%). The strongest predictors for PCS were Glasgow Coma Scale, major extracranial injury, and pre-injury health status, while MCS and QOLIBRI were mainly related to pre-injury mental health problems, level of education, and type of employment. R2 of the full models was 19% for PCS, 9% for MCS, and 13% for the QOLIBRI. In a subset of patients following predominantly mild TBI (N = 436), including 2 week HRQoL assessment improved model performance substantially (R2 PCS 15% to 37%, MCS 12% to 36%, and QOLIBRI 10% to 48%). CONCLUSION: Medical and injury-related characteristics are of greatest importance for the prediction of PCS, whereas patient-related characteristics are more important for the prediction of MCS and the QOLIBRI following TBI.

10.
J Clin Epidemiol ; 138: 32-39, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34175377

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) and a shorter version of this tool can identify clinical prediction models (CPMs) that perform poorly at external validation. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We evaluated risk of bias (ROB) on 102 CPMs from the Tufts CPM Registry, comparing PROBAST to a short form consisting of six PROBAST items anticipated to best identify high ROB. We then applied the short form to all CPMs in the Registry with at least 1 validation (n=556) and assessed the change in discrimination (dAUC) in external validation cohorts (n=1,147). RESULTS: PROBAST classified 98/102 CPMS as high ROB. The short form identified 96 of these 98 as high ROB (98% sensitivity), with perfect specificity. In the full CPM registry, 527 of 556 CPMs (95%) were classified as high ROB, 20 (3.6%) low ROB, and 9 (1.6%) unclear ROB. Only one model with unclear ROB was reclassified to high ROB after full PROBAST assessment of all low and unclear ROB models. Median change in discrimination was significantly smaller in low ROB models (dAUC -0.9%, IQR -6.2-4.2%) compared to high ROB models (dAUC -11.7%, IQR -33.3-2.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: High ROB is pervasive among published CPMs. It is associated with poor discriminative performance at validation, supporting the application of PROBAST or a shorter version in CPM reviews.


Assuntos
Pesquisa Biomédica/organização & administração , Estudos Epidemiológicos , Projetos de Pesquisa/estatística & dados numéricos , Projetos de Pesquisa/normas , Medição de Risco/métodos , Medição de Risco/estatística & dados numéricos , Viés , Regras de Decisão Clínica , Análise Discriminante , Humanos , Prognóstico
11.
Injury ; 52(7): 1688-1696, 2021 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34045042

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The goal of trauma systems is to match patient care needs to the capabilities of the receiving centre. Severely injured patients have shown better outcomes if treated in a major trauma centre (MTC). We aimed to evaluate patient distribution in the Dutch trauma system. Furthermore, we sought to identify factors associated with the undertriage and transport of severely injured patients (Injury Severity Score (ISS) >15) to the MTC by emergency medical services (EMS). METHODS: Data on all acute trauma admissions in the Netherlands (2015-2016) were extracted from the Dutch national trauma registry. An ambulance driving time model was applied to calculate MTC transport times and transport times of ISS >15 patients to the closest MTC and non-MTC. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with ISS >15 patients' EMS undertriage to an MTC. RESULTS: Of the annual average of 78,123 acute trauma admissions, 4.9% had an ISS >15. The nonseverely injured patients were predominantly treated at non-MTCs (79.2%), and 65.4% of patients with an ISS >15 received primary MTC care. This rate varied across the eleven Dutch trauma networks (36.8%-88.4%) and was correlated with the transport times to an MTC (Pearson correlation -0.753, p=0.007). The trauma networks also differed in the rates of secondary transfers of ISS >15 patients to MTC hospitals (7.8% - 59.3%) and definitive MTC care (43.6% - 93.2%). Factors associated with EMS undertriage of ISS >15 patients to the MTC were female sex, older age, severe thoracic and abdominal injury, and longer additional EMS transport times. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one-third of all severely injured patients in the Netherlands are not initially treated at an MTC. Special attention needs to be directed to identifying patient groups with a high risk of undertriage. Furthermore, resources to overcome longer transport times to an MTC, including the availability of ambulance and helicopter services, may improve direct MTC care and result in a decrease in the variation of the undertriage of severely injured patients to MTCs among the Dutch trauma networks. Furthermore, attention needs to be directed to improving primary triage guidelines and instituting uniform interfacility transfer agreements.


Assuntos
Centros de Traumatologia , Ferimentos e Lesões , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Escala de Gravidade do Ferimento , Masculino , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Triagem , Ferimentos e Lesões/terapia
12.
Med Decis Making ; 41(3): 354-365, 2021 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33655778

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Genomic tests may improve upon clinical risk estimation with traditional prognostic factors. We aimed to explore how evidence on the prognostic strength of a genomic signature (clinical validity) can contribute to individualized decision making on starting chemotherapy for women with breast cancer (clinical utility). METHODS: The MINDACT trial was a randomized trial that enrolled 6693 women with early-stage breast cancer. A 70-gene signature (Mammaprint) was used to estimate genomic risk, and clinical risk was estimated by a dichotomized version of the Adjuvant!Online risk calculator. Women with discordant risk results were randomized to the use of chemotherapy. We simulated the full risk distribution of these women and estimated individual benefit, assuming a constant relative effect of chemotherapy. RESULTS: The trial showed a prognostic effect of the genomic signature (adjusted hazard ratio 2.4). A decision-analytic modeling approach identified far fewer women as candidates for genetic testing (4% rather than 50%) and fewer benefiting from chemotherapy (3% rather than 27%) as compared with the MINDACT trial report. The selection of women benefitting from genetic testing and chemotherapy depended strongly on the required benefit from treatment and the assumed therapeutic effect of chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: A high-quality pragmatic trial was insufficient to directly inform clinical practice on the utility of a genomic test for individual women. The indication for genomic testing may be far more limited than suggested by the MINDACT trial.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Neoplasias da Mama/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias da Mama/genética , Quimioterapia Adjuvante , Tomada de Decisões , Feminino , Testes Genéticos , Humanos , Prognóstico
13.
Clin Res Cardiol ; 110(7): 1083-1095, 2021 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33710385

RESUMO

AIMS: To evaluate the impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on 10-year all-cause death and the treatment effect of CABG versus PCI on 10-year all-cause death in patients with three-vessel disease (3VD) and/or left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD) and COPD. METHODS: Patients were stratified according to COPD status and compared with regard to clinical outcomes. Ten-year all-cause death was examined according to the presence of COPD and the revascularization strategy. RESULTS: COPD status was available for all randomized 1800 patients, of whom, 154 had COPD (8.6%) at the time of randomization. Regardless of the revascularization strategy, patients with COPD had a higher risk of 10-year all-cause death, compared with those without COPD (43.1% vs. 24.9%; hazard ratio [HR]: 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.56-2.64; p < 0.001). Among patients with COPD, CABG appeared to have a slightly lower risk of 10-year all-cause death compared with PCI (42.3% vs. 43.9%; HR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.59-1.56, p = 0.858), whereas among those without COPD, CABG had a significantly lower risk of 10-year all-cause death (22.7% vs. 27.1%; HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.67-0.99, p = 0.041). There was no significant differential treatment effect of CABG versus PCI on 10-year all-cause death between patients with and without COPD (p interaction = 0.544). CONCLUSIONS: COPD was associated with a higher risk of 10-year all-cause death after revascularization for complex coronary artery disease. The presence of COPD did not significantly modify the beneficial effect of CABG versus PCI on 10-year all-cause death. TRIAL REGISTRATION: SYNTAX: ClinicalTrials.gov reference: NCT00114972. SYNTAX Extended Survival: ClinicalTrials.gov reference: NCT03417050.


Assuntos
Ponte de Artéria Coronária/métodos , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/cirurgia , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea/métodos , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/mortalidade , Idoso , Causas de Morte/tendências , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/complicações , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/mortalidade , Stents Farmacológicos , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Período Pós-Operatório , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/complicações , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências , Fatores de Tempo
14.
Catheter Cardiovasc Interv ; 98(7): 1287-1297, 2021 Dec 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33539048

RESUMO

AIMS: We aimed to update the logistic clinical SYNTAX score to predict 2 year all-cause mortality after contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed 15,883 patients in the GLOBAL LEADERS study who underwent PCI. The logistic clinical SYNTAX model was updated after imputing missing values by refitting the original model (refitted original model) and fitting an extended new model (new model, with, selection based on the Akaike Information Criterion). External validation was performed in 10,100 patients having PCI at Fu Wai hospital. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, prior stroke, current smoker, hemoglobin level, and white blood cell count were identified as additional independent predictors of 2 year all-cause mortality and included into the new model. The c-indexes of the original, refitted original and the new model in the derivation cohort were 0.74 (95% CI 0.72-0.76), 0.75 (95% CI 0.73-0.77), and 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.80), respectively. The c-index of the new model was lower in the validation cohort than in the derivation cohort, but still showed improved discriminative ability of the newly developed model (0.72; 95% CI 0.67-0.77) compared to the refitted original model (0.69; 95% CI 0.64-0.74). The models overestimated the observed 2 year all-cause mortality of 1.11% in the Chinese external validation cohort by 0.54 percentage points, indicating the need for calibration of the model to the Chinese patient population. CONCLUSIONS: The new model of the logistic clinical SYNTAX score better predicts 2 year all-cause mortality after PCI than the original model. The new model could guide clinical decision making by risk stratifying patients undergoing PCI.

16.
Acta Diabetol ; 58(6): 707-722, 2021 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33517494

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Approximately 84 million people in the USA have pre-diabetes, but only a fraction of them receive proven effective therapies to prevent type 2 diabetes. We estimated the value of prioritizing individuals at highest risk of progression to diabetes for treatment, compared to non-targeted treatment of individuals meeting inclusion criteria for the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP). METHODS: Using microsimulation to project outcomes in the DPP trial population, we compared two interventions to usual care: (1) lifestyle modification and (2) metformin administration. For each intervention, we compared targeted and non-targeted strategies, assuming either limited or unlimited program capacity. We modeled the individualized risk of developing diabetes and projected diabetic outcomes to yield lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy, from which we estimated net monetary benefits (NMB) for both lifestyle and metformin versus usual care. RESULTS: Compared to usual care, lifestyle modification conferred positive benefits and reduced lifetime costs for all eligible individuals. Metformin's NMB was negative for the lowest population risk quintile. By avoiding use when costs outweighed benefits, targeted administration of metformin conferred a benefit of $500 per person. If only 20% of the population could receive treatment, when prioritizing individuals based on diabetes risk, rather than treating a 20% random sample, the difference in NMB ranged from $14,000 to $20,000 per person. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting active diabetes prevention to patients at highest risk could improve health outcomes and reduce costs compared to providing the same intervention to a similar number of patients with pre-diabetes without targeted selection.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/prevenção & controle , Seleção de Pacientes , Estado Pré-Diabético/terapia , Prevenção Primária , Adulto , Estudos de Coortes , Análise Custo-Benefício , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/economia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Feminino , Acesso aos Serviços de Saúde/economia , Acesso aos Serviços de Saúde/organização & administração , Acesso aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Hipoglicemiantes/economia , Hipoglicemiantes/uso terapêutico , Expectativa de Vida , Estilo de Vida , Masculino , Metformina/economia , Metformina/uso terapêutico , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estado Pré-Diabético/economia , Estado Pré-Diabético/epidemiologia , Prevenção Primária/economia , Prevenção Primária/métodos , Prevenção Primária/organização & administração , Prevenção Primária/estatística & dados numéricos , Qualidade de Vida , Fatores de Risco , Padrão de Cuidado/economia , Padrão de Cuidado/organização & administração , Padrão de Cuidado/normas , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
17.
J Neurotrauma ; 38(2): 196-209, 2021 01 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32977737

RESUMO

The majority of traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) are categorized as mild, according to a baseline Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 13-15. Prognostic models that were developed to predict functional outcome and persistent post-concussive symptoms (PPCS) after mild TBI have rarely been externally validated. We aimed to externally validate models predicting 3-12-month Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) or PPCS in adults with mild TBI. We analyzed data from the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) project, which included 2862 adults with mild TBI, with 6-month GOSE available for 2374 and Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ) results available for 1605 participants. Model performance was evaluated based on calibration (graphically and characterized by slope and intercept) and discrimination (C-index). We validated five published models for 6-month GOSE and three for 6-month PPCS scores. The models used different cutoffs for outcome and some included symptoms measured 2 weeks post-injury. Discriminative ability varied substantially (C-index between 0.58 and 0.79). The models developed in the Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) trial for prediction of GOSE <5 discriminated best (C-index 0.78 and 0.79), but were poorly calibrated. The best performing models for PPCS included 2-week symptoms (C-index 0.75 and 0.76). In conclusion, none of the prognostic models for early prediction of GOSE and PPCS has both good calibration and discrimination in persons with mild TBI. In future studies, prognostic models should be tailored to the population with mild TBI, predicting relevant end-points based on readily available predictors.

18.
EuroIntervention ; 16(18): e1484-e1495, 2021 Apr 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32338610

RESUMO

Composite endpoints are commonly used in clinical trials, and time-to-first-event analysis has been the usual standard. Time-to-first-event analysis treats all components of the composite endpoint as having equal severity and is heavily influenced by short-term components. Over the last decade, novel statistical approaches have been introduced to overcome these limitations. We reviewed win ratio analysis, competing risk regression, negative binomial regression, Andersen-Gill regression, and weighted composite endpoint (WCE) analysis. Each method has both advantages and limitations. The advantage of win ratio and WCE analyses is that they take event severity into account by assigning weights to each component of the composite endpoint. These weights should be pre-specified because they strongly influence treatment effect estimates. Negative binomial regression and Andersen-Gill analyses consider all events for each patient -rather than only the first event - and tend to have more statistical power than time-to-first-event analysis. Pre-specified novel statistical methods may enhance our understanding of novel therapy when components vary substantially in severity and timing. These methods consider the specific types of patients, drugs, devices, events, and follow-up duration.


Assuntos
Projetos de Pesquisa , Determinação de Ponto Final , Humanos , Recidiva
19.
J Neurotrauma ; 38(2): 235-251, 2021 01 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32838645

RESUMO

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant cause of disability, but little is known about sex and gender differences after TBI. We aimed to analyze the association between sex/gender, and the broad range of care pathways, treatment characteristics, and outcomes following mild and moderate/severe TBI. We performed mixed-effects regression analyses in the prospective multi-center Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study, stratified for injury severity and age, and adjusted for baseline characteristics. Outcomes were various care pathway and treatment variables, and 6-month measures of functional outcome, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), post-concussion symptoms (PCS), and mental health symptoms. The study included 2862 adults (36% women) with mild (mTBI; Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score 13-15), and 1333 adults (26% women) with moderate/severe TBI (GCS score 3-12). Women were less likely to be admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU; odds ratios [OR] 0.6, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4-0.8) following mTBI. Following moderate/severe TBI, women had a shorter median hospital stay (OR 0.7, 95% CI: 0.5-1.0). Following mTBI, women had poorer outcomes; lower Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE; OR 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2-1.6), lower generic and disease-specific HRQoL, and more severe PCS, depression, and anxiety. Among them, women under age 45 and above age 65 years showed worse 6-month outcomes compared with men of the same age. Following moderate/severe TBI, there was no difference in GOSE (OR 0.9, 95% CI: 0.7-1.2), but women reported more severe PCS (OR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1-2.6). Men and women differ in care pathways and outcomes following TBI. Women generally report worse 6-month outcomes, but the size of differences depend on TBI severity and age. Future studies should examine factors that explain these differences.

20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33313813

RESUMO

AIM: Adequate risk prediction can optimize the clinical management in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). We aimed to update and subsequently validate a previously developed ACHD risk prediction model. METHODS AND RESULTS: A prediction model was developed in a prospective cohort study including 602 moderately or severely complex ACHD patients, enrolled as outpatients at a tertiary centre in the Netherlands (2011-2013). Multivariable Cox regression was used to develop a model for predicting the 1-year risks of death, heart failure, or arrhythmia (primary endpoint). The Boston ACHD Biobank study, a prospectively enrolled cohort (n = 749) of outpatients who visited a referral centre in Boston (2012-2017), was used for external validation. The primary endpoint occurred in 153 (26%) and 191 (28%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts over median follow-up of 5.6 and 2.3 years, respectively. The final model included 5 out of 14 pre-specified predictors with the following HR's; NYHA class ≥II: 1.92 (95% CI 1.28-2.90), cardiac medication 2.52 (95% CI 1.72-3.69), ≥1 re-intervention after initial repair: 1.56 (95% CI 1.09-2.22), body mass index: 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07), log2 NT-proBNP (pmol/L): 1.48 (95% CI 1.32-1.65). At external validation, the model showed good discrimination (C-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.74-0.83) and excellent calibration (calibration-in-the-large=-0.002; calibration slope = 0.99). CONCLUSION: These data support the validity and applicability of a parsimonious ACHD risk model based on 5 readily available clinical variables to accurately predict the 1-year risk of death, heart failure or arrhythmia. This risk tool may help guide appropriate care for moderately or severely complex ACHD.

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