Trend and driving factors in burden of age-related macular degeneration in older adults aged 60-89 years: a global analysis over three decades.

BACKGROUND: To explore temporal trends and determine driving factors of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) burden in older adults aged 60-89 years at global, regional and national levels from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were extracted. Joinpoint regression analysis was adopted to calculate average annual percentage change and to identify the year with the most significant changes. Global trends were stratified by sex, age and sociodemographic index, and regional and national trends were explored. Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine what extent the forces of population size, age structure and epidemiologic change driving alterations of AMD burden. RESULTS: Globally, prevalence rate slightly increased whereas YLDs rate decreased. The year 2005 marked a turning point where both prevalence and YLDs started to decline. Regionally, Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest prevalence and YLDs rates in 2019, with East Asia experiencing the most notable rise in prevalence from 1990 to 2019. Global decomposition revealed that the increased case number was primarily driven by population growth and ageing, and epidemiological change was only detected to lessen but far from offset these impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was only slight increase or even decrease in prevalence and YLDs rates of AMD in older adults, the case number still nearly doubled, which may be primarily attributed to population growth and ageing, coupled with the emerging growing pattern of prevalence rate from 2015, collectively suggesting a huge challenge in control and management of AMD.

The Cancer Incidence and Trends From 2011 to 2018 in Ma'anshan, China: A Registry-Based Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The cancer burden in China has been increasing over the decades. However, the cancer incidence remains unknown in Ma'anshan, which is one of the central cities in the Yangtze River Delta in Eastern China. The study was designed to describe the cancer incidence and trends in Ma'anshan from 2011 to 2018, providing information about cancer etiology that is useful for prevention programs. METHODS: The cancer incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) were calculated using the cancer registry data in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the ASIR was analyzed by the Joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on cancer incidence were estimated through the age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: There were 13,508 newly diagnosed cancer cases in males and 9558 in females in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The ASIR maintained a steady trend in both males and females. Age effects showed that cancer risk increased with age in both genders; no visible period effects were detected during this study period. Cohort effects changed slowly until the end of the 1950s, then started decreasing in males while increasing in females after 1960. Lung, gastric, female breast, colorectal, cervical, esophageal, liver, thyroid, lymphoma, and pancreatic cancer were the most common cancers in Ma'anshan during the study period. The ASIR of gastric cancer (AAPC: -3.72%), esophageal cancer (AAPC: -8.30%), and liver cancer (AAPC: -5.55%) declined, while that of female breast cancer (AAPC: 3.91%), colorectal cancer (AAPC: 3.23%), and thyroid cancer (AAPC: 22.38%) rose. CONCLUSION: During 2011-2018, the cancer incidence in Ma'anshan was lower than that in China, nation-wide. The incidence of upper gastrointestinal cancer decreased gradually while female breast, colorectal, and thyroid cancers showed an upward trend, consistent with the changes in the cancer spectrum in China. Further studies should be designed to discover the underlying causes of these findings.

National trends and disparities in herpes zoster vaccination among US older adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 2008 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a risk factor for herpes zoster. Vaccination can prevent or attenuate herpes zoster and its related complications. However, evidence regarding vaccine uptake among patients with COPD is limited. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate trends in herpes zoster vaccination and characteristics associated with vaccination among US older adults with COPD. METHODS: Data from the 2008 to 2022 National Health Interview Survey were used. Participants aged ≥50 years were included. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to analyze trends in herpes zoster vaccination. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with vaccination. RESULTS: From 2008 to 2022, an increasing trend in herpes zoster vaccination was observed (average annual percent change = 15.10, P < .01). This increasing trend was also observed when stratified by age groups. Disparities in vaccination were found across several factors, including age, sex, race or ethnicity, region, educational level, health insurance, income, smoking status, perceived health status, and flu and pneumococcal vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: There has been an upward trend in herpes zoster vaccination over the past 15 years among older adults with COPD. Disparities across several characteristics existed, underscoring the necessity for targeted policies and interventions to promote equity in vaccination.

Trends in polypharmacy among U.S. adults with asthma, 2001-2020.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate trends in polypharmacy prevalence among adults with asthma in the United States. METHODS: Data from the 2001-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used to estimate the weighted prevalence of polypharmacy. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to evaluate trends in polypharmacy. Trends were first evaluated overall and then stratified by asthma severity and asthma control. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with polypharmacy. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2020, a stable trend in polypharmacy among U.S. adults with asthma was observed (average annual percent change [AAPC]=1.02, p=0.71). Trends across different asthma severity were stable (mild asthma: AAPC=2.93, p=0.20; moderate asthma: AAPC=-2.22, p=0.35; severe asthma: AAPC=0.45, p=0.82). Trends in adults with good asthma control and those with poor control stayed constant (good control: AAPC=0.82, p=0.68; poor control: AAPC=-1.22, p=0.82). Several factors, including older age, females, Non-Hispanic Black, health insurance coverage, family income, number of healthcare visits, former smokers, multi-morbidities, asthma severity, and asthma control, were associated with polypharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy prevalence has remained constant among U.S. adults with asthma over the past two decades. Despite a stable overall trend, disparities in polypharmacy prevalence persist across different asthma severity and control status, underscoring the need for tailored medication management to improve asthma care.

Global burden of osteoarthritis: Prevalence and temporal trends from 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and temporal trends for hip, knee, hand, and other osteoarthritis (OA) at a global, continental, and national level. DESIGN: The estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for case number and ASPR of OA were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019. The joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to examine the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, the global ASPR of hip, knee, hand, and other OA was 400.95 (95% UI: 312.77-499.41), 4375.95 (95% UI: 3793.04-5004.9), 1726.38 (95% UI: 1319.91-2254.85), and 745.62 (95% UI: 570.16-939.8). As for the ASPR of hip OA, hand OA, and other OA, Europe and America had higher rates than Asia and Africa, and Asia was second only to America in knee OA ASPRs. The period 1990-2019, the ASPR at global level dropped significantly for hand OA (AAPC = -0.4%, 95% CI: -0.47 to -0.34) and increased significantly for hip OA (AAPC = 0.43%, 95% CI: 0.39-0.46), knee OA (AAPC = 0.17%, 95% CI: 0.09-0.24) and other OA (AAPC = 0.16%, 95% CI: 0.15-0.17). Different continents, countries, and periods demonstrated significant changes. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, America has the highest OA burden and Asia has a higher knee OA burden. Appropriate prevention and control measures to reduce modifiable risk factors are needed to reduce the burden of OA.

[Trends in the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the changes in distribution of Oncomelania hupensis snails in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023, so as to provide insights into formulation of O. hupensis snail surveillance programs. METHODS: The reports on O. hupensis snail surveillance in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 were collected, and the snail surveillance data in forestlands were extracted. The trends in the proportion of areas with snails in forestlands in total areas with snails, occurrence of frames with living snails and density of living snails were evaluated using a Joinpoint regression model in Songjiang District from 2009 to 2023, and the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). RESULTS: A total of 40 sites with snails were found in forestlands in 14 administrative villages of 4 townships, Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023. A total of 39 065 frames were surveyed for snails in settings covering an area of 609 600 m2, and there were 6 084 frames with snails, covering 151 250 m2 snail habitats. A total of 22 210 snails were captured, with the highest density of 260.00 snails/0.1 m2, and 6 262 snails were dissected, with no Schistosoma japonicum infection identified in snails. The proportion of areas with snails in forestlands in total areas with snails appeared a tendency towards a rise in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 24.9%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest proportion seen in 2009 (53.81%), the lowest in 2011 and 2023 (both 0) and a mean proportion of 24.81%. The occurrence of frames with living snails appeared a tendency towards a rise from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 41.5%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest occurrence in 2009 (53.81%), the lowest in 2011 and 2013 (both 0), and the mean occurrence of 15.57%. In addition, the density of living snails appeared a tendency towards a rise from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 55.0%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest density in 2023 (0.96 snails/0.1 m2), the lowest in 2011 and 2013 (both 0), and a mean density of 0.57 snails/0.1 m2. CONCLUSIONS: The difficulty in O. hupensis snail control and risk of imported snails appeared a tendency towards a rise in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality over years from 2009 to 2023. Supervision and assessment prior to seedling transplantation and intensified surveillance post-transplantation are recommended to reduce the risk of O. hupensis snail importation and spread.

The long-term spatio-temporal trends in burden and attributable risk factors of major depressive disorder at global, regional and national levels during 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for GBD 2019.

AIMS: Caused by multiple risk factors, heavy burden of major depressive disorder (MDD) poses serious challenges to public health worldwide over the past 30 years. Yet the burden and attributable risk factors of MDD were not systematically known. We aimed to reveal the long-term spatio-temporal trends in the burden and attributable risk factors of MDD at global, regional and national levels during 1990-2019. METHODS: We obtained MDD and attributable risk factors data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We used joinpoint regression model to assess the temporal trend in MDD burden, and age-period-cohort model to measure the effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDD incidence rate. We utilized population attributable fractions (PAFs) to estimate the specific proportions of MDD burden attributed to given risk factors. RESULTS: During 1990-2019, the global number of MDD incident cases, prevalent cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) increased by 59.10%, 59.57% and 58.57%, respectively. Whereas the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of MDD decreased during 1990-2019. The ASIR, ASPR and ASDR in women were 1.62, 1.62 and 1.60 times as that in men in 2019, respectively. The highest age-specific incidence, prevalence and DALYs rate occurred at the age of 60-64 in women, and at the age of 75-84 in men, but the maximum increasing trends in these age-specific rates occurred at the age of 5-9. Population living during 2000-2004 had higher risk of MDD. MDD burden varied by socio-demographic index (SDI), regions and nations. In 2019, low-SDI region, Central sub-Saharan Africa and Uganda had the highest ASIR, ASPR and ASDR. The global PAFs of intimate partner violence (IPV), childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and bullying victimization (BV) were 8.43%, 5.46% and 4.86% in 2019, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past 30 years, the global ASIR, ASPR and ASDR of MDD had decreased trends, while the burden of MDD was still serious, and multiple disparities in MDD burden remarkably existed. Women, elderly and populations living during 2000-2004 and in low-SDI regions, had more severe burden of MDD. Children were more susceptible to MDD. Up to 18.75% of global MDD burden would be eliminated through early preventing against IPV, CSA and BV. Tailored strategies-and-measures in different regions and demographic groups based on findings in this studywould be urgently needed to eliminate the impacts of modifiable risk factors on MDD, and then mitigate the burden of MDD.

Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030.

AIM: To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends. CONCLUSIONS: The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.

Global, regional, and national burden of thalassemia, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.

Background: Anemia is a significant contributor to the global disease burden, of which thalassemia is the most common hereditary anaemic disease. Previous estimates were based on data that were geographically limited and lacked comprehensive global analysis. This study provides the prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thalassemia in 204 countries and regions of thalassemia between 1990 and 2021, focusing on the age structure and time trends of the disease burden. To provide effective information for health policy, allocation of medical resources and optimization of patient management programs. Methods: Using the standardised Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodologies, we aimed to derive a more precise representation of the health burden posed by thalassemia by considering four distinct types of epidemiological data, namely the incidence at birth, prevalence, mortality and DALYs. The presented data were meticulously estimated and displayed both as numerical counts and as age-standardised rates per 100,000 persons of the population, accompanied by uncertainty interval (UI) to highlight potential statistical variability. The temporal trends spanning the years 1990-2021 were subjected to a rigorous examination utilizing Joinpoint regression analysis. This methodological approach facilitated the computation of the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC), along with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Findings: Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rates for thalassemia in 2021 were 18.28 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 15.29-22.02), 1.93 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 1.51-2.49), 0.15 per 100,000 persons(95% UI 0.11-0.20), and 11.65 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 8.24-14.94), respectively. Compared to 1990, these rates have decreased by 0.18 (95% UI -0.22 to -0.14), 0.25 (95% UI -0.30 to -0.19), 0.48 (95% UI -0.60 to -0.28), and 0.49 (95% UI -0.62 to -0.29) respectively. In 2021, the ASIR of thalassemia was highest in East Asia at 7.35 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 5.37-10.04), and ASMR was highest in Southeast Asia at 0.37 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 0.29-0.45).Gender comparisons showed negligible differences in disease burden, with the highest prevalence noted in children under five, decreasing with age. The global ASPR and ASMR declined from 1990 to 2021 overall, though an increasing trend in prevalence was found among the elderly. Joinpoint analysis revealed that the global ASPR increased between 2018 and 2021 (APC = 9.2%, 95% CI: 4.8%-13.8%, P < 0.001), ASIR decreased (APC = -7.68%, 95% CI: -10.88% to -4.36%, P < 0.001), and there was a significant rise in ASMR from 2019 to 2021 (APC = 4.8%, 95% CI: 0.1%-9.6%, P < 0.05). Trends in ASPR and ASMR varied across regions, with notable changes in South Asia. Interpretation: The global burden of thalassemia, reflected in its prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs, exhibits significant disparities. Geographic and demographic shifts in disease distribution have been observed from 1990 to 2021, with an overall decrease in burden, yet an increase in cases among the elderly population. Analysis of epidemiological trends over time highlights the influence of health policies and significant public health interventions on thalassemia outcomes. There data are crucial for healthcare professionals, policymakers, and researchers to refine and enhance management strategies, aiming to further mitigate thalassemia's global impact. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China; Guizhou Province Science and Technology Project; Guizhou Province Science and Technology Foundation of Health Commission.

Epidemiological study of pediatric nutritional deficiencies: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional deficiencies (ND) continue to threaten the lives of millions of people around the world, with children being the worst hit. Nevertheless, no systematic study of the epidemiological features of child ND has been conducted so far. Therefore, we aimed to comprehensively assess the burden of pediatric ND. METHODS: We analyzed data on pediatric ND between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels. In addition, joinpoint regression models were used to assess temporal trends. RESULTS: In 2019, the number of prevalent cases of childhood malnutrition increased to 435,071,628 globally. The global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates showed an increasing trend between 1990 and 2019. Meanwhile, the burden of child malnutrition was negatively correlated with sociodemographic index (SDI). Asia and Africa still carried the heaviest burden. The burden and trends of child malnutrition varied considerably across countries and regions. At the age level, we found that malnutrition was significantly more prevalent among children < 5 years of age. CONCLUSION: Pediatric ND remains a major public health challenge, especially in areas with low SDI. Therefore, primary healthcare services in developing countries should be improved, and effective measures, such as enhanced pre-school education, strengthened nutritional support, and early and aggressive treatment, need to be developed.

Age-period-cohort effects on incidence trends of childhood leukemia from four population-based cancer registries in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Childhood leukemia (CL) is the most prevalent form of pediatric cancer on a global scale. However, there is a limited understanding of the dynamics of CL incidence in South America, with a specific knowledge gap in Colombia. This study aimed to identify trends in CL incidence and to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the risk of leukemia incidence in this population. METHODS: Information on all newly diagnosed leukemia cases (in general and by subtype) among residents aged 0-18 years and living in the serving areas of population-based cancer registries of Cali (2008-2017), Bucaramanga (2000-2017), Manizales (2003-2017), and Pasto (1998-2018). Estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in incidence over time and potential changes in the slope of these EAPCs were calculated using joinpoint regression models. The effects of age, period, and cohort in CL incidence trends were evaluated using age-period-cohort models addressing the identifiability issue through the application of double differences. RESULTS: A total of 966 childhood leukemia cases were identified. The average standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leukemia was calculated and expressed per 100,000 person-years - observing ASIR of 4.46 in Cali, 7.27 in Bucaramanga, 3.89 in Manizales and 4.06 in Pasto. Concerning CL trends there were no statistically significant changes in EAPC throughout the different periods, however, when analyzed by leukemia subtype, statistically significant changes were observed in the EAPC for both ALL and AML. Analysis of age-period-cohort models revealed that age-related factors significantly underpin the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in these four Colombian cities. CONCLUSIONS: This study offers valuable insights into the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in four major Colombian cities. The analysis revealed stable overall CL incidence rates across varying periods, predominantly influenced by age-related factors and the absence of cohort and period effects. This information is useful for surveillance and planning purposes for CL diagnosis and treatment in Colombia.

Temporal trends in early-onset colorectal cancer incidence (2000-2020) by age group and five geographic regions in the state of Georgia.

The increase of early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC) among younger adults is a major public health concern. However, little is known about variations in CRC incidence across different age groups within small geographic areas in Georgia. We examined temporal trends of CRC incidence in Clayton, East Central, West Central, Northeast, and Southeast regions, by age groups. Annual incidence rates for CRC in individuals aged 15+ years during 2000-2020 in the five regions of Georgia were included. Temporal trends were examined within the five regions and stratified by age group. Joinpoint regression was employed to calculate the annual percent change and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Among 20,215 CRC diagnoses, CRC incidence declined over time for East Central (-2.33%; 95% CI, -3.03, -1.64), Northeast (-1.63%; 95% CI, -2.15, -1.04), Southeast (-1.63%; 95% CI, -2.30, -0.96), and West Central (-1.53%; 95% CI, -2.04, -1.03) Georgia. In the 15-44 age group, a notable increase of CRC incidence was found in Clayton, Northeast, and Southeast regions with a range of 2.2%-3.4%. However, adults aged 60+ years experienced a significant decrease in CRC incidence for most Georgia regions (all p-value <0.05), except for the Clayton region. In conclusion, CRC incidence declined during 2000-2020 in most Georgia regions. However, early-onset CRC is a major concern in Georgia as young adults (<45 years) living in Clayton, Northeast, and Southeast Georgia experienced significant annual increases in CRC incidence. Targeted CRC screening and awareness campaigns should be prioritized for adults <45 years and in the most impacted areas in Georgia.

Epidemiological study of pediatric rheumatic heart disease: An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is the most common acquired heart disease among children in developing countries. However, there is a lack of systematic studies on the epidemiology of pediatric RHD. This study aimed to report the burden of pediatric RHD at global, regional, and national levels between 1990 and 2019, which may provide some reference for policymakers. METHODS: The numbers and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for childhood RHD from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed based on data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). In addition, Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess temporal trends in the burden of childhood RHD. RESULTS: Globally, the number of incidence and prevalence cases of RHD in children increased by 41.89% and 40.88%, respectively, from 1990 to 2019. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) increased with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.75% and 0.66%, respectively. In contrast, the age-standardized DALY rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased significantly since 1990 by an AAPC of -3.47% and - 2.65%, respectively. Girls had a significantly higher burden of RHD than boys during the study period. At the age level, the RHD burden was significantly highest in the age group of 10-14 years. Moreover, the ASRs of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were negatively associated with sociodemographic index (SDI). Nationally, Fiji had the most significant increase in incidence and prevalence, and Philippines had the most remarkable rise in DALYs and mortality rates. CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2019, although the incidence and prevalence of childhood RHD increased globally, DALYs and mortality rates markedly reduced. Countries with lower levels of sociodemographic development shoulder a higher burden of childhood RHD. Children aged 10-14 years are critical populations for whom targeted measures are needed to reduce the RHD burden, while attention to girls cannot be neglected.

Disease Burden of Esophageal Cancer Attributable to High BMI and Death Prediction in China and the United States, 1990-2019 / 肿瘤防治研究

Objective To analyze trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in the Chinese and United States populations from 1990 to 2019 and predict deaths over the next 10 years. Methods This study used Global Burden of Disease 2019 data to obtain mortality and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) data by year, gender, and age for the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI in China and the United States from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to analyze long-term trends. Bayesian age–period–cohort analysis was used to predict age-standardized mortality attributable to esophageal cancer in 2020–2030. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate for esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI in China increased from 1.44/105 to 1.80/105 and the age-standardized DALY rate increased from 34.17/105 to 40.79/105. From the perspective of gender, the number of deaths, DALYs, and the corresponding age-standardized rate of males in China and the United States increased from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of Chinese women showed a downward trend, decreasing by 21.36/105 and 29.71/105, respectively. Joinpoint analysis results revealed that the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in mortality attributable to esophageal cancer in the total population and men in China from 1990 to 2019 increased by 0.78% (95%CI: 0.71-0.84) and 1.52% (95%CI: 1.44-1.60), respectively, and that in females decreased by 0.88% (95%CI: −0.96-−0.80). AAPC in women in the United States rose at a slow rate of 0.07% (95%CI: 0.02-0.09). The burden of esophageal cancer deaths attributable to high BMI is predicted to continue to rise in China and the United States in 2020–2030. Conclusion The disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI significantly increased in China from 1990 to 2019. The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by high BMI in China is expected to increase from 2020 to 2030.

Trends in the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To investigate the changes in distribution of Oncomelania hupensis snails in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023, so as to provide insights into formulation of O. hupensis snail surveillance programs. Methods The reports on O. hupensis snail surveillance in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 were collected, and the snail surveillance data in forestlands were extracted. The trends in the proportion of areas with snails in forestlands in total areas with snails, occurrence of frames with living snails and density of living snails were evaluated using a Joinpoint regression model in Songjiang District from 2009 to 2023, and the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Results A total of 40 sites with snails were found in forestlands in 14 administrative villages of 4 townships, Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023. A total of 39 065 frames were surveyed for snails in settings covering an area of 609 600 m2, and there were 6 084 frames with snails, covering 151 250 m2 snail habitats. A total of 22 210 snails were captured, with the highest density of 260.00 snails/0.1 m2, and 6 262 snails were dissected, with no Schistosoma japonicum infection identified in snails. The proportion of areas with snails in forestlands in total areas with snails appeared a tendency towards a rise in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 24.9%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest proportion seen in 2009 (53.81%), the lowest in 2011 and 2023 (both 0) and a mean proportion of 24.81%. The occurrence of frames with living snails appeared a tendency towards a rise from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 41.5%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest occurrence in 2009 (53.81%), the lowest in 2011 and 2013 (both 0), and the mean occurrence of 15.57%. In addition, the density of living snails appeared a tendency towards a rise from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 55.0%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest density in 2023 (0.96 snails/0.1 m2), the lowest in 2011 and 2013 (both 0), and a mean density of 0.57 snails/0.1 m2. Conclusions The difficulty in O. hupensis snail control and risk of imported snails appeared a tendency towards a rise in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality over years from 2009 to 2023. Supervision and assessment prior to seedling transplantation and intensified surveillance post-transplantation are recommended to reduce the risk of O. hupensis snail importation and spread.

Joinpoint regression analysis on the epidemiological trend of influenza in Nantong city, Jiangsu province in 2010 - 2022 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Nantong city, explore its changing trend, and provide evidence for effective prevention and control measures. Methods The incidence data of influenza in Nantong city from 2010 to 2022 were collected and analyzed by descriptive statistical software. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of influenza incidence. Results The annual reported incidence of influenza in Nantong city showed an exponential upward trend from 2010 to 2022 (APC=25.25, P=0.002). The annual reported incidence rate of males was higher than that of females, and the incidence trend of both showed an exponential upward trend(Male: APC=24.40, P=0.002; Female: APC=26.11, P=0.002). The seasonal index showed a unimodal distribution, with a peak from December to February of the next year, and the highest value was 2.78 in January. The average annual reported incidence in each age group showed a rapid upward trend from 0 to 7 years old (β1=16.13, P1=-44.50, P=0.037), and a low slow downward trend from 10 to 45 years old (β1=-0.20, P=0.001), and lower tailing was observed in 45-85 years group (β1=0.04, P=0.162). Conclusion The overall incidence rate of influenza in Nantong City is on the rise. Children under 7 years old are the key protected population. We should control the key season, do a good job of publicity and education, encourage vaccination,and at the same time do a good job in pathogen monitoring, timely pay attention to the situation of epidemic strains, and scientific prevention and control.

Trends in childhood obesity in Japan: A nationwide observational study from 2012 to 2021.

The persistent ascension of childhood obesity on a global scale constitutes a significant quandary. The prevalence of childhood obesity in Japan peaked in the early 2000s and has been reported to have declined since then, but recent data and its trend including the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic era are not available. Moreover, there is a dearth of studies examining the correlation between the trend in childhood obesity and exercise habits over the past decade. This study aims to examine the changes in the prevalence of obesity, physical fitness, and exercise habits over the past 10 years in Japanese children. We investigated the prevalence of childhood obesity in Japan, using the School Health Statistics Survey data from 2012 to 2021. The dataset has a sample size representative of children nationwide and includes variables for obesity, such as height, weight, and age. Data were classified into groups by sex and age (6-8, 9-11, and 12-14 years age). Children weighing 20% or more of the standard body weight are classified as obese. The annual percentage changes and average annual percentage changes were estimated using the joinpoint regression model. We also examined the trends in the physical fitness test score and exercise time. Average annual percentage changes of boys increased, especially in the 6- to 8-year age group (3.4%-4.6%). For girls, average annual percentage changes had increased in 6- to 8-year (2.5%-4.0%) and 9- to 11-year (0.9%-2.2%) age groups. Since the late 2010s, significantly increasing annual percentage changes were observed in 12- to 14-year age boys (6.7%-8.9%) and girls of many age groups (2.6%-8.6%). The physical fitness test score and exercise time showed decreasing trends since the late 2010s. Childhood obesity may have generally risen in Japan, in the last decade. Encouraging healthy eating and physical activity through school policies and curricula is necessary.

Time trends in the burden of autoimmune diseases across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to evaluate the long-term trend of prevalence and DALY (disability-adjusted life-year) rate on the age, period and cohort (APC) of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) country for autoimmune diseases (rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and psoriasis). METHODS: The data are sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and it uses the Joinpoint regression model to estimate the time trends of autoimmune diseases from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, it employs the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: For 1990 to 2019, the ASPR (age-standardised prevalence rate) of IBD increased significantly for China and South Africa, and decreased significantly for Brazil, India, Russian. The Russian ASPR of MS demonstrated a significantly decreasing trend (average annual percent change=-0.5%, 95% CI -0.6 to -0.5), with the most increased occurring in Brazil at 2009-2014. The cohort effect on DALY rates for Psoriasis displayed an ongoing decreasing trend from the 1929-1933 birth cohort to the 1999-2003 birth cohort. Specifically, the five countries relative risk values (RRs) of DALYs due to RA increased significantly by 7.98, 16.07, 5.98, 3.19, 9.13 times, from 20 to 24 age group to 65 to 69 age group. CONCLUSIONS: The population of the BRICS countries accounts for more than 40% of the global population. And we found that the age effect of various autoimmune diseases is heavily influenced by population ageing.

Long-term trends in the burden of colorectal cancer in Europe over three decades: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis.

Background: The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Europe is at a high level, but the epidemiological features have not yet been systematically studied. This study aimed to provide a timely and reliable assessment of the burden and trends of CRC in Europe to provide a scientific basis for its prevention and treatment. Methods: We analyzed data on CRC in 44 European countries between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019. In addition, the joinpoint regression model was applied to reflect temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model was constructed to explore age, period, and birth cohort effects that influence the risk of morbidity and mortality. Results: In Europe, new cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths of CRC rose by 70.01%, 22.88% and 38.04% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) has increased, while age-standardized DALY rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) have declined. We found that men experienced a significantly higher CRC burden than women. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the risk of incidence and mortality increased with age and time; and it was lower in the later-born cohort than the earlier-born cohort. Conclusion: ASIR for CRC in Europe generally trended upwards from 1990 to 2019, stabilizing in recent years but still at a high level. CRC burden varied considerably in different countries. There was a pronounced gender difference in CRC burden, and middle-aged and older men should be a priority population for CRC prevention and treatment.

[Burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2030].

OBJECTIVE: To measure the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict its changes from 2020 to 2030. METHODS: The age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) data resources, and the trends in burdens of hepatitis B-associated diseases were evaluated from 1990 to 2019 using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and annual percent change (APC). In addition, the changes in the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases were predicted in China from 2020 to 2023 using the Bayesian model. RESULTS: The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases reduced from 2 725.98/105 in 1990 to 1 397.31/105 in 2019 in China [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -2.35%, 95% confidential interval (CI): (-2.58%, -2.13%)], with a reduction in the prevalence from 12 239.53/105 in 1990 to 6 566.12/105 in 2019 [EAPC = -2.34%, 95% CI: (-2.54%, -2.14%)], a reduction in the mortality from 24.67/105 in 1990 to 8.07/105 in 2019 [EAPC = -4.92%, 95% CI: (-5.37%, -4.47%)], and a reduction in the DALY rate from 793.38/105 in 1990 to 247.71/105 in 2019 [(EAPC = -5.15%, 95% CI: (-5.64%, -4.66%)]. The DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases were mainly attributed to liver cancer, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases appeared a tendency towards a rise in China from 2012 to 2019 [APC = 1.30%, 95% CI: (0.16%, 2.45%)]. The overall burden of hepatitis Bassociated diseases was higher in males than in females, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases increased with age, with the greatest DALY rate seen among patients at ages of 50 to 69 years. The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases was projected to be 866.79/105 in China in 2030, with the greatest incidence seen in acute hepatitis B (854.87/105), and the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases was predicted to decline in China from 2020 to 2030; however, the burden of liver disease was projected to appear a tendency towards a rise. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases appears an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2030; however, the burden of liver cancer appears a tendency towards aggravation. Early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer should be given a high priority.