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1.
Glob Health Action ; 13(1): 1816044, 2020 12 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33012269

RESUMO

COVID-19 has wreaked havoc globally with particular concerns for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where models suggest that the majority of the population will become infected. Conventional wisdom suggests that the continent will bear a higher burden of COVID-19 for the same reasons it suffers from other infectious diseases: ecology, socio-economic conditions, lack of water and sanitation infrastructure, and weak health systems. However, so far SSA has reported lower incidence and fatalities compared to the predictions of standard models and the experience of other regions of the world. There are three leading explanations, each with different implications for the final epidemic burden: (1) low case detection, (2) differences in epidemiology (e.g. low R 0 ), and (3) policy interventions. The low number of cases have led some SSA governments to relaxing these policy interventions. Will this result in a resurgence of cases? To understand how to interpret the lower-than-expected COVID-19 case data in Madagascar, we use a simple age-structured model to explore each of these explanations and predict the epidemic impact associated with them. We show that the incidence of COVID-19 cases as of July 2020 can be explained by any combination of the late introduction of first imported cases, early implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and low case detection rates. We then re-evaluate these findings in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic in Madagascar through August 2020. This analysis reinforces that Madagascar, along with other countries in SSA, remains at risk of a growing health crisis. If NPIs remain enforced, up to 50,000 lives may be saved. Even with NPIs, without vaccines and new therapies, COVID-19 could infect up to 30% of the population, making it the largest public health threat in Madagascar for the coming year, hence the importance of clinical trials and continually improving access to healthcare.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Modelos Teóricos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Madagáscar/epidemiologia , Pandemias
5.
PLoS Med ; 17(9): e1003254, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32925906

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Appropriate clinical management of malaria in children is critical for preventing progression to severe disease and for reducing the continued high burden of malaria mortality. This study aimed to assess the quality of care provided to children under 5 diagnosed with malaria across 9 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from the Service Provision Assessment (SPA) survey. SPAs are nationally representative facility surveys capturing quality of sick-child care, facility readiness, and provider and patient characteristics. The data set contained 24,756 direct clinical observations of outpatient sick-child visits across 9 countries, including Uganda (2007), Rwanda (2007), Namibia (2009), Kenya (2010), Malawi (2013), Senegal (2013-2017), Ethiopia (2014), Tanzania (2015), and Democratic Republic of the Congo (2018). We assessed the proportion of children with a malaria diagnosis who received a blood test diagnosis and an appropriate antimalarial. We used multilevel logistic regression to assess facility and provider and patient characteristics associated with these outcomes. Subgroup analyses with the 2013-2018 country surveys only were conducted for all outcomes. Children observed were on average 20.5 months old and were most commonly diagnosed with respiratory infection (47.7%), malaria (29.7%), and/or gastrointestinal infection (19.7%). Among the 7,340 children with a malaria diagnosis, 32.5% (95% CI: 30.3%-34.7%) received both a blood-test-based diagnosis and an appropriate antimalarial. The proportion of children with a blood test diagnosis and an appropriate antimalarial ranged from 3.4% to 57.1% across countries. In the more recent surveys (2013-2018), 40.7% (95% CI: 37.7%-43.6%) of children with a malaria diagnosis received both a blood test diagnosis and appropriate antimalarial. Roughly 20% of children diagnosed with malaria received no antimalarial at all, and nearly 10% received oral artemisinin monotherapy, which is not recommended because of concerns regarding parasite resistance. Receipt of a blood test diagnosis and appropriate antimalarial was positively correlated with being seen at a facility with diagnostic equipment in stock (adjusted OR 3.67; 95% CI: 2.72-4.95) and, in the 2013-2018 subsample, with being seen at a facility with Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs) in stock (adjusted OR 1.60; 95% CI:1.04-2.46). However, even if all children diagnosed with malaria were seen by a trained provider at a facility with diagnostics and medicines in stock, only a predicted 37.2% (95% CI: 34.2%-40.1%) would have received a blood test and appropriate antimalarial (44.4% for the 2013-2018 subsample). Study limitations include the lack of confirmed malaria test results for most survey years, the inability to distinguish between a diagnosis of uncomplicated or severe malaria, the absence of other relevant indicators of quality of care including dosing and examinations, and that only 9 countries were studied. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that a majority of children diagnosed with malaria across the 9 surveyed sub-Saharan African countries did not receive recommended care. Clinical management is positively correlated with the stocking of essential commodities and is somewhat improved in more recent years, but important quality gaps remain in the countries studied. Continued reductions in malaria mortality will require a bigger push toward quality improvements in clinical care.


Assuntos
Assistência à Saúde/métodos , Malária/tratamento farmacológico , Qualidade da Assistência à Saúde/tendências , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Antimaláricos/uso terapêutico , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Estudos Transversais , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino
6.
Ethn Dis ; 30(4): 693-694, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32989369

RESUMO

As of May 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic had reached 187 countries with more than 3.7 million confirmed cases and 263,000 deaths. While sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has not been spared, the extent of disease is currently far less than in Europe or North America leading some to posit that climatic, genetic or other conditions will self-limit disease in this location. Nonetheless, infections in tropical Africa continue to rise at an alarming pace with the potential to soon exceed health resource availability and to exhaust a health care workforce that is already grossly under supported and ill-equipped. This perspective outlines the context of COVID-19 disease in Africa with a focus on the distinctive challenges faced by African nations and a potential best path forward.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/organização & administração , Infecções por Coronavirus , Alocação de Recursos para a Atenção à Saúde/organização & administração , Necessidades e Demandas de Serviços de Saúde/tendências , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , Alocação de Recursos , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Mão de Obra em Saúde , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle
7.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0238678, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32941467

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 virus pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths worldwide. If the prevalence of the infection continues to grow, this could impact life expectancy. This paper provides first estimates of the potential direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on period life expectancy. METHODS: From the estimates of bias-adjusted age-specific infection fatality rates in Hubei (China) and a range of six prevalence rate assumptions ranging from 1% to 70%, we built a discrete-time microsimulation model that simulates the number of people infected by COVID-19, the number dying from it, and the number of deaths from all causes week by week for a period of one year. We applied our simulation to four broad regions: North America and Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Southeastern Asia; and sub-Saharan African. For each region, 100,000 individuals per each 5-year age group are simulated. RESULTS: At a 10% COVID-19 prevalence rate, the loss in life expectancy at birth is likely above 1 year in North America and Europe and in Latin America and the Caribbean. In Southeastern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, one year lost in life expectancy corresponds to an infection prevalence of about 15% and 25%, respectively. Given the uncertainty in fatality rates, with a 50% prevalence of COVID-19 infections under 95% prediction intervals, life expectancy would drop by 3 to 9 years in North America and Europe, by 3 to 8 years in Latin America and the Caribbean, by 2 to 7 years in Southeastern Asia, and by 1 to 4 years in sub-Saharan Africa. In all prevalence scenarios, as long as the COVID-19 infection prevalence rate remains below 1 or 2%, COVID-19 would not affect life expectancy in a substantial manner. INTERPRETATION: In regions with relatively high life expectancy, if the infection prevalence threshold exceeds 1 or 2%, the COVID-19 pandemic will break the secular trend of increasing life expectancy, resulting in a decline in period life expectancy. With life expectancy being a key indicator of human development, mortality increase, especially among the vulnerable subgroups of populations, would set a country back on its path of human development.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Expectativa de Vida , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Adulto , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , América/epidemiologia , Ásia/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Países em Desenvolvimento , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Saúde Global , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Prevalência
9.
Pan Afr Med J ; 36: 81, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32774640

RESUMO

Sickle cell disease is a major concern of public health significance in Africa. Nearly 2/3rd of the global burden of sickle cell disease (SCD) is found to be in sub-Saharan Africa. There is increased mortality risk in sickle cell disease patients in Africa due to associated complications such as acute chest syndrome, asthma, pulmonary emboli and sepsis. Sickle cell disease management is the major contributor of financial burden on the government. Moreover, there is a shortage of medical specialists in Africa. COVID-19 pandemic has further led to devastating impact on economy and health globally. The chances of SCD patient contracting COVID-19 infections are higher as these patients are immunocompromised and may be at a higher risk of mortality. Practicing preventive measures including isolation and social distancing by these patients will prevent mortality rates as well as economic burden on government in the present unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic.


Assuntos
Anemia Falciforme/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Anemia Falciforme/complicações , Anemia Falciforme/mortalidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/economia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Hospedeiro Imunocomprometido , Pandemias/economia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/economia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Saúde Pública , Isolamento Social
10.
J Int AIDS Soc ; 23(8): e25587, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32767707

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic reached the African continent in less than three months from when the first cases were reported from mainland China. As COVID-19 preparedness and response plans were rapidly instituted across sub-Saharan Africa, many governments and donor organizations braced themselves for the unknown impact the COVID-19 pandemic would have in under-resourced settings with high burdens of PLHIV. The potential negative impact of COVID-19 in these countries is uncertain, but is estimated to contribute both directly and indirectly to the morbidity and mortality of PLHIV, requiring countries to leverage existing HIV care systems to propel COVID-19 responses, while safeguarding PLHIV and HIV programme gains. In anticipation of COVID-19-related disruptions, PEPFAR promptly established guidance to rapidly adapt HIV programmes to maintain essential HIV services while protecting recipients of care and staff from COVID-19. This commentary reviews PEPFAR's COVID-19 technical guidance and provides country-specific examples of programme adaptions in sub-Saharan Africa. DISCUSSION: The COVID-19 pandemic may pose significant risks to the continuity of HIV services, especially in countries with high HIV prevalence and weak and over-burdened health systems. Although there is currently limited understanding of how COVID-19 affects PLHIV, it is imperative that public health systems and academic centres monitor the impact of COVID-19 on PLHIV. The general principles of the HIV programme adaptation guidance from PEPFAR prioritize protecting the gains in the HIV response while minimizing in-person home and facility visits and other direct contact when COVID-19 control measures are in effect. PEPFAR-supported clinical, laboratory, supply chain, community and data reporting systems can play an important role in mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSIONS: As community transmission of COVID-19 continues and the number of country cases rise, fragile health systems may be strained. Utilizing the adaptive, data-driven programme approaches in facilities and communities established and supported by PEPFAR provides the opportunity to strengthen the COVID-19 response while protecting the immense gains spanning HIV prevention, testing and treatment reached thus far.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/complicações , Assistência à Saúde , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Pneumonia Viral/complicações , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/complicações , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/tratamento farmacológico , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/mortalidade , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , China , Infecções por Coronavirus/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Assistência à Saúde/economia , Assistência à Saúde/normas , Assistência à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/mortalidade , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/tratamento farmacológico , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Prevalência
11.
J Prim Care Community Health ; 11: 2150132720946948, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32734822

RESUMO

Strengthening Primary Health Care Systems is the most effective policy response in low-and middle-income countries to protect against health emergencies, achieve universal health coverage, and promote health and wellbeing. Despite the Astana declaration on primary health care, respective investment is still insufficient in Sub-Sahara Africa. The SARS-CoV-2019 pandemic is a reminder that non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which are increasingly prevalent in Sub-Sahara Africa, are closely interlinked to the burden of communicable diseases, exacerbating morbidity and mortality. Governments and donors should use the momentum created by the pandemic in a sustainable and effective way by pivoting health spending towards primary health care.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Doenças não Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Atenção Primária à Saúde/organização & administração , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Humanos , Prevalência
12.
Pan Afr Med J ; 36: 121, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32821332

RESUMO

The risk of infection and death from COVID-19 is higher among older prisoners with pre-existing health conditions especially in sub-Saharan African. Hawks L et al. raise four concerns that need to be considered when developing public health and clinical responses to COVID-19 to protect prisoners. This paper applies these concerns to the sub-Saharan African context. These focus areas include 1) challenges of social distancing; 2) higher risk of severe infection and death; 3) difficulties health care systems may face in the case of COVID-19 surge; and 4) recommended solutions to prevent harm and preventing a public health catastrophe. Prisoners are more vulnerable and the time to take immediate actions to minimize an imminent COVID-19 outbreak and its impacts is now.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Prisioneiros , Prisões , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Fatores Etários , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Aglomeração , Países em Desenvolvimento , Acesso aos Serviços de Saúde , Nível de Saúde , Humanos , Espaço Pessoal , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Saúde Pública , Isolamento Social
13.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 570, 2020 Aug 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32758165

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), most prisons are overcrowded with poor ventilation and put prisoners disproportionally at risk of exposure to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) and developing TB infection but are mostly missed due to poor access to healthcare. Active case-finding (ACF) of TB in prisons facilitates early diagnosis and treatment of inmates and prevent the spread. We explored literature and described evidence on TB ACF interventions and approaches for prisoners in SSA prisons. METHODS: Guided by the Arksey and O'Malley framework, we searched PubMed, Google Scholar, SCOPUS, Academic search complete, CINAHL and MEDLINE with full text via EBSCOhost for articles on prisoners and ACF from 2000 to May 2019 with no language restriction. Two investigators independently screened the articles at the abstract and full-text stages in parallel guided by the eligibility criteria as well as performed the methodological quality appraisal of the included studies using the latest mixed-method appraisal tool. We extracted all relevant data, organized them into themes and sub-themes, and presented a narrative summary of the results. RESULTS: Of the 391 eligible articles found, 31 met the inclusion criteria. All 31 articles were published between 2006 and 2019 with the highest six (19.4%) in 2015. We found evidence in 11 countries. That is, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Coˆte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Zambia with most 41.9% (13/31) recorded in Ethiopia. These intervention studies were conducted in 134 prisons between 2001 and 2018 using either a single or combination of mass, facility-led, entry, peer educators for routine screening, and exit ACF approaches. The majority (74%) of the studies utilized only a mass screening approach. The most (68%) reported study outcome was smear-positive TB cases only (68%). We found no evidence in 16 SSA countries although they are classified among the three high-burden country lists for TB TB/HIV and Multidrug resistant-TB group. CONCLUSION: Our review highlights a dearth of evidence on TB ACF interventions in most SSA countries prisons. Hence, there is the need to scaling-up ACF interventions in SSA prisons, particularly countries included in the three high-burden country lists for TB, TB/HIV, and MDR-TB.


Assuntos
Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genética , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/imunologia , Prisioneiros , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/diagnóstico , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/epidemiologia , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Antibióticos Antituberculose/uso terapêutico , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana Múltipla , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/isolamento & purificação , Técnicas de Amplificação de Ácido Nucleico , Prevalência , Rifampina/uso terapêutico , Escarro/microbiologia , Teste Tuberculínico , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/microbiologia
14.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 14(8): e0008520, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32776938

RESUMO

Diarrhea is a leading cause of antibiotic consumption among children in low- and middle-income countries. While vaccines may prevent diarrhea infections for which children often receive antibiotics, the contribution of individual enteropathogens to antibiotic use is minimally understood. We used data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to estimate pathogen-specific incidence of antibiotic-treated diarrhea among children under five years old residing in six countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia before rotavirus vaccine implementation. GEMS was an age-stratified, individually-matched case-control study. Stool specimens were obtained from children presenting to sentinel health clinics with newly-onset, acute diarrhea (including moderate-to-severe and less-severe diarrhea) as well as matched community controls without diarrhea. We used data from conventional and quantitative molecular diagnostic assays applied to stool specimens to estimate the proportion of antibiotic-treated diarrhea cases attributable to each pathogen. Antibiotics were administered or prescribed to 9,606 of 12,109 moderate-to-severe cases and 1,844 of 3,174 less-severe cases. Across all sites, incidence rates of clinically-attended, antibiotic-treated diarrhea were 12.2 (95% confidence interval: 9.0-17.8), 10.2 (7.4-13.9) and 1.9 (1.3-3.0) episodes per 100 child-years at risk at ages 6 weeks to 11 months, 12-23 months, and 24-59 months, respectively. Based on the recommendation for antibiotic treatment to be reserved for cases with dysentery, we estimated a ratio of 12.6 (8.6-20.8) inappropriately-treated diarrhea cases for each appropriately-treated case. Rotavirus, adenovirus serotypes 40/41, Shigella, sapovirus, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, and Cryptosporidium were the leading antibiotic-treated diarrhea etiologies. Rotavirus caused 29.2% (24.5-35.2%) of antibiotic-treated cases, including the largest share in both the first and second years of life. Shigella caused 14.9% (11.4-18.9%) of antibiotic-treated cases, and was the leading etiology at ages 24-59 months. Our findings should inform the prioritization of vaccines with the greatest potential to reduce antibiotic exposure among children.


Assuntos
Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Países em Desenvolvimento , Diarreia/tratamento farmacológico , Diarreia/epidemiologia , Diarreia/etiologia , Adenoviridae , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Antibacterianos/administração & dosagem , Ásia/epidemiologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Pré-Escolar , Criptosporidiose/tratamento farmacológico , Criptosporidiose/epidemiologia , Criptosporidiose/etiologia , Cryptosporidium , Disenteria/tratamento farmacológico , Disenteria/epidemiologia , Disenteria/etiologia , Infecções por Escherichia coli/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por Escherichia coli/epidemiologia , Infecções por Escherichia coli/etiologia , Fezes/virologia , Feminino , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos , Hospitalização , Humanos , Incidência , Renda , Lactente , Masculino , Vacinas contra Rotavirus , Escherichia coli Shiga Toxigênica , Shigella
15.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 14(8): e0008589, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32845889

RESUMO

Accurate data on the Lassa virus (LASV) human case fatality rate (CFR) and the prevalence of LASV in humans, rodents and other mammals are needed for better planning of actions that will ultimately reduce the burden of LASV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. In this systematic review with meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Africa Journal Online, and African Index Medicus from 1969 to 2020 to obtain studies that reported enough data to calculate LASV infection CFR or prevalence. Study selection, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were conducted independently. We extracted all measures of current, recent, and past infections with LASV. Prevalence and CFR estimates were pooled using a random-effect meta-analysis. Factors associated with CFR, prevalence, and sources of between-study heterogeneity were determined using subgroup and metaregression analyses. This review was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020166465. We initially identified 1,399 records and finally retained 109 reports that contributed to 291 prevalence records from 25 countries. The overall CFR was 29.7% (22.3-37.5) in humans. Pooled prevalence of LASV infection was 8.7% (95% confidence interval: 6.8-10.8) in humans, 3.2% (1.9-4.6) in rodents, and 0.7% (0.0-2.3) in other mammals. Subgroup and metaregression analyses revealed a substantial statistical heterogeneity explained by higher prevalence in tissue organs, in case-control, in hospital outbreak, and surveys, in retrospective studies, in urban and hospital setting, in hospitalized patients, and in West African countries. This study suggests that LASV infections is an important cause of death in humans and that LASV are common in humans, rodents and other mammals in sub-Saharan Africa. These estimates highlight disparities between sub-regions, and population risk profiles. Western Africa, and specific key populations were identified as having higher LASV CFR and prevalence, hence, deserving more attention for cost-effective preventive interventions.


Assuntos
Febre Lassa/epidemiologia , Febre Lassa/veterinária , Vírus Lassa , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Animais , Bases de Dados Factuais , Hospitais , Humanos , Febre Lassa/virologia , Mamíferos , Prevalência , Roedores
16.
Lancet Glob Health ; 8(9): e1203-e1212, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32827482

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in women in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there are few well characterised large-scale survival studies with complete follow-up data. We aimed to provide robust survival estimates in women in this setting and apportion the survival gaps. METHODS: The African Breast Cancer-Disparities in Outcomes (ABC-DO) prospective cohort study was done at eight hospitals across five sub-Saharan African countries (Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Zambia). We prospectively recruited women (aged ≥18 years) who attended these hospitals with suspected breast cancer. Women were actively followed up by use of a telephone call once every 3 months, and a mobile health application was used to keep a dynamic record of follow-up calls due. We collected detailed sociodemographic, clinical, and treatment data. The primary outcome was 3-year overall survival, analysed by use of flexible proportional mortality models, and we predicted survival under scenarios of modified distributions of risk factors. FINDINGS: Between Sept 8, 2014, and Dec 31, 2017, 2313 women were recruited from these eight hospitals, of whom 85 did not have breast cancer. Of the remaining 2228 women with breast cancer, 58 women with previous treatment or recurrence, and 14 women from small racial groups (white and Asian women in South Africa), were excluded. Of the 2156 women analysed, 1840 (85%) were histologically confirmed, 129 (6%) were cytologically confirmed, and 187 (9%) were clinically confirmed to have breast cancer. 2156 (97%) women were followed up for up to 3 years or up to Jan 1, 2019, whichever was earlier. Up to this date, 879 (41%) of these women had died, 1118 (52%) were alive, and 159 (7%) were censored early. 3-year overall survival was 50% (95% CI 48-53), but we observed variations in 3-year survival between different races in Namibia (from 90% in white women to 56% in Black women) and in South Africa (from 76% in mixed-race women to 59% in Black women), and between different countries (44-47% in Uganda and Zambia vs 36% in Nigeria). 215 (10%) of all women had died within 6 months of diagnosis, but 3-year overall survival remained low in women who survived to this timepoint (58%). Among survival determinants, improvements in early diagnosis and treatment were predicted to contribute to the largest increases in survival, with a combined absolute increase in survival of up to 22% in Nigeria, Zambia, and Uganda, when compared with the contributions of other factors (such as HIV or aggressive subtypes). INTERPRETATION: Large variations in breast cancer survival in sub-Saharan African countries indicate that improvements are possible. At least a third of the projected 416 000 breast cancer deaths that will occur in this region in the next decade could be prevented through achievable downstaging and improvements in treatment. Improving survival in socially disadvantaged women warrants special attention. FUNDING: Susan G Komen and the International Agency for Research on Cancer.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama/mortalidade , Adulto , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Idoso , Neoplasias da Mama/terapia , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Taxa de Sobrevida
17.
Lancet HIV ; 7(9): e629-e640, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32771089

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic could lead to disruptions to provision of HIV services for people living with HIV and those at risk of acquiring HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, where UNAIDS estimated that more than two-thirds of the approximately 38 million people living with HIV resided in 2018. We aimed to predict the potential effects of such disruptions on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used five well described models of HIV epidemics (Goals, Optima HIV, HIV Synthesis, an Imperial College London model, and Epidemiological MODeling software [EMOD]) to estimate the effect of various potential disruptions to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa lasting 6 months over 1 year from April 1, 2020. We considered scenarios in which disruptions affected 20%, 50%, and 100% of the population. FINDINGS: A 6-month interruption of supply of antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs across 50% of the population of people living with HIV who are on treatment would be expected to lead to a 1·63 times (median across models; range 1·39-1·87) increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period compared with no disruption. In sub-Saharan Africa, this increase amounts to a median excess of HIV deaths, across all model estimates, of 296 000 (range 229 023-420 000) if such a high level of disruption occurred. Interruption of ART would increase mother-to-child transmission of HIV by approximately 1·6 times. Although an interruption in the supply of ART drugs would have the largest impact of any potential disruptions, effects of poorer clinical care due to overstretched health facilities, interruptions of supply of other drugs such as co-trimoxazole, and suspension of HIV testing would all have a substantial effect on population-level mortality (up to a 1·06 times increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period due to disruptions affecting 50% of the population compared with no disruption). Interruption to condom supplies and peer education would make populations more susceptible to increases in HIV incidence, although physical distancing measures could lead to reductions in risky sexual behaviour (up to 1·19 times increase in new HIV infections over a 1-year period if 50% of people are affected). INTERPRETATION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the primary priority for governments, donors, suppliers, and communities should focus on maintaining uninterrupted supply of ART drugs for people with HIV to avoid additional HIV-related deaths. The provision of other HIV prevention measures is also important to prevent any increase in HIV incidence. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Fármacos Anti-HIV/provisão & distribução , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Terapia Antirretroviral de Alta Atividade , Preservativos/provisão & distribução , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Feminino , Saúde Global/tendências , Infecções por HIV/mortalidade , Infecções por HIV/transmissão , Infecções por HIV/virologia , HIV-1/efeitos dos fármacos , HIV-1/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Humanos , Incidência , Recém-Nascido , Transmissão Vertical de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Transmissão Vertical de Doença Infecciosa/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Comportamento Sexual/psicologia , Comportamento Sexual/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise de Sobrevida
18.
Can J Public Health ; 111(5): 649-653, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32845460

RESUMO

This commentary draws on sub-Saharan African health researchers' accounts of their countries' responses to control the spread of COVID-19, including social and health impacts, home-grown solutions, and gaps in knowledge. Limited human and material resources for infection control and lack of understanding or appreciation by the government of the realities of vulnerable populations have contributed to failed interventions to curb transmission, and further deepened inequalities. Some governments have adapted or limited lockdowns due to the negative impacts on livelihoods and taken specific measures to minimize the impact on the most vulnerable citizens. However, these measures may not reach the majority of the poor. Yet, African countries' responses to COVID-19 have also included a range of innovations, including diversification of local businesses to produce personal protective equipment, disinfectants, test kits, etc., which may expand domestic manufacturing capabilities and deepen self-reliance. African and high-income governments, donors, non-governmental organizations, and businesses should work to strengthen existing health system capacity and back African-led business. Social scientific understandings of public perceptions, their interactions with COVID-19 control measures, and studies on promising clinical interventions are needed. However, a decolonizing response to COVID-19 must include explicit and meaningful commitments to sharing the power-the authority and resources-to study and endorse solutions.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Governo , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Populações Vulneráveis
19.
Arch Virol ; 165(10): 2291-2299, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32754877

RESUMO

The multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis; M. natalensis) serves as the main reservoir for the zoonotic arenavirus Lassa virus (LASV), and this has led to considerable investigation into the distribution of LASV and other related arenaviruses in this host species. In contrast to the situation with arenaviruses, the presence of other viruses in M. natalensis remains largely unexplored. In this study, herpesviruses and polyomaviruses were identified and partially characterized by PCR methods, sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. In tissues sampled from M. natalensis populations in Côte d'Ivoire and Mali, six new DNA viruses (four betaherpesviruses, one gammaherpesvirus and one polyomavirus) were identified. Phylogenetic analysis based on glycoprotein B amino acid sequences showed that the herpesviruses clustered with cytomegaloviruses and rhadinoviruses of multiple rodent species. The complete circular genome of the newly identified polyomavirus was amplified by PCR. Amino acid sequence analysis of the large T antigen or VP1 showed that this virus clustered with a known polyomavirus from a house mouse (species Mus musculus polyomavirus 1). These two polyomaviruses form a clade with other rodent polyomaviruses, and the newly identified virus represents the third known polyomavirus of M. natalensis. This study represents the first identification of herpesviruses and the discovery of a novel polyomavirus in M. natalensis. In contrast to arenaviruses, we anticipate that these newly identified viruses represent a low zoonotic risk due to the normally highly restricted specificity of members of these two DNA virus families to their individual mammalian host species.


Assuntos
Genoma Viral , Infecções por Herpesviridae/epidemiologia , Herpesviridae/genética , Filogenia , Infecções por Polyomavirus/epidemiologia , Polyomavirus/genética , Doenças dos Roedores/epidemiologia , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Animais , Antígenos Virais de Tumores/genética , Proteínas do Capsídeo/genética , Reservatórios de Doenças/virologia , Herpesviridae/classificação , Herpesviridae/isolamento & purificação , Infecções por Herpesviridae/virologia , Especificidade de Hospedeiro , Tipagem Molecular , Murinae/virologia , Polyomavirus/classificação , Polyomavirus/isolamento & purificação , Infecções por Polyomavirus/virologia , Doenças dos Roedores/virologia , Proteínas do Envelope Viral/genética
20.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0237600, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32813750

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia and eclampsia are common complications of pregnancy globally, including sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Although it has a high burden on maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity, evidence on the risk of the problem is limited. Therefore, the aim of this review was to examine the factors associated with preeclampsia and eclampsia among mothers in SSA countries. METHODS: We searched article from SSA countries using electronic database MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, CINAHL published in English from January 2000 to May 2020. Two reviewers independently screened, extracted and assessed the quality of the articles. Both random and fixed effect model were used for analysis. Heterogeneity of the studies and publication bias were checked. STATA 16 used for analysis. RESULTS: Fifty-one studies met the inclusion criteria and included in this review. The following factors were identified through meta-analysis: being primiparous (OR: 2.52; 95% CI:1.19, 3.86), previous history of maternal preeclampsia/eclampsia (OR:5.6; 95% CI:1.82, 9.28), family history of preeclampsia/eclampsia (OR:1.68; 95% CI:1.26, 2.11), high maternal body mass index (OR: 1.69; 95% CI:1.17, 2.21), chronic hypertension (OR: 2.52; 95% CI:1.29, 3.74), anaemia during pregnancy (OR: 3.22; 95% CI:2.70, 3.75) and lack of antenatal care visits (OR: 2.71; 95% CI:1.45, 3.96). There was inconclusive evidence for a relationship with a number of other factors, such as nutrition and related factors, antenatal care visits, birth spacing, and other factors due to few studies found in our review. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of preeclampsia and eclampsia is worse among women who have a history of preeclampsia/eclampsia (either themselves or family members), primiparous, obesity and overweight, living with chronic disease, having anaemia during pregnancy and absence from ANC visits. Therefore, investment must be made in women's health needs to reduce the problem and health service providers need to give due attention to high-risk women.


Assuntos
Anemia/fisiopatologia , Eclampsia/epidemiologia , Hipertensão/fisiopatologia , Obesidade/fisiopatologia , Sobrepeso/fisiopatologia , Pré-Eclâmpsia/epidemiologia , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Gravidez , Fatores de Risco
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