Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 4.839
Filtrar
1.
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis ; 24(8): 829-837, 2020 08 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32912388

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Italy has been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and has one of the highest death tolls. We analyzed the severity of COVID-19 across all 20 Italian regions.METHOD: We manually retrieved the daily cumulative numbers of laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths attributed to COVID-19 in each region, and estimated the crude case fatality ratio and time delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (aCFR). We then assessed the association between aCFR and sociodemographic, health care and transmission factors using multivariate regression analysis.RESULTS: The overall aCFR in Italy was estimated at 17.4%. Lombardia exhibited the highest aCFR (24.7%), followed by Marche (19.3%), Emilia Romagna (17.7%) and Liguria (17.6%). Our aCFR estimate was greater than 10% for 12 regions. Our aCFR estimates were statistically associated with population density and cumulative morbidity rate in a multivariate analysis.CONCLUSION: Our aCFR estimates for Italy as a whole and for seven out of the 20 regions exceeded those reported for the most badly affected region in China. These findings highlight the importance of social distancing to suppress transmission to avoid overwhelming the health care system and reduce the risk of death.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Densidade Demográfica , Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Incidência , Itália/epidemiologia , Mortalidade , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Medição de Risco/métodos , Análise Espaço-Temporal
2.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 4631, 2020 09 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32934205

RESUMO

The knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of human population is vital for the study of cities, disaster risk management or planning of infrastructure. However, information on the distribution of population is often based on place-of-residence statistics from official sources, thus ignoring the changing population densities resulting from human mobility. Existing assessments of spatio-temporal population are limited in their detail and geographical coverage, and the promising mobile-phone records are hindered by issues concerning availability and consistency. Here, we present a multi-layered dasymetric approach that combines official statistics with geospatial data from emerging sources to produce and validate a European Union-wide dataset of population grids taking into account intraday and monthly population variations at 1 km2 resolution. The results reproduce and systematically quantify known insights concerning the spatio-temporal population density structure of large European cities, whose daytime population we estimate to be, on average, 1.9 times higher than night time in city centers.


Assuntos
Densidade Demográfica , Telefone Celular/estatística & dados numéricos , Cidades/estatística & dados numéricos , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Análise Espaço-Temporal
3.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 4295, 2020 09 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32908130

RESUMO

Recent expansion of croplands in the United States has caused widespread conversion of grasslands and other ecosystems with largely unknown consequences for agricultural production and the environment. Here we assess annual land use change 2008-16 and its impacts on crop yields and wildlife habitat. We find that croplands have expanded at a rate of over one million acres per year, and that 69.5% of new cropland areas produced yields below the national average, with a mean yield deficit of 6.5%. Observed conversion infringed upon high-quality habitat that, relative to unconverted land, had provided over three times higher milkweed stem densities in the Monarch butterfly Midwest summer breeding range and 37% more nesting opportunities per acre for waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains. Our findings demonstrate a pervasive pattern of encroachment into areas that are increasingly marginal for production, but highly significant for wildlife, and suggest that such tradeoffs may be further amplified by future cropland expansion.


Assuntos
Animais Selvagens , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Custos e Análise de Custo/estatística & dados numéricos , Produção Agrícola/tendências , Produtos Agrícolas/economia , Animais , Biodiversidade , Borboletas , Produção Agrícola/economia , Produção Agrícola/estatística & dados numéricos , Dispersão Vegetal , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Estados Unidos
4.
Nature ; 585(7823): 74-78, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32879498

RESUMO

Introductions of species by humans are causing the homogenization of species composition across biogeographic barriers1-3. The ecological and evolutionary consequences of introduced species derive from their effects on networks of species interactions4,5, but we lack a quantitative understanding of the impacts of introduced species on ecological networks and their biogeographic patterns globally. Here we address this data gap by analysing mutualistic seed-dispersal interactions from 410 local networks, encompassing 24,455 unique pairwise interactions between 1,631 animal and 3,208 plant species. We show that species introductions reduce biogeographic compartmentalization of the global meta-network, in which nodes are species and links are interactions observed within any local network. This homogenizing effect extends across spatial scales, decreasing beta diversity among local networks and modularity within networks. The prevalence of introduced interactions is directly related to human environmental modifications and is accelerating, having increased sevenfold over the past 75 years. These dynamics alter the coevolutionary environments that mutualists experience6, and we find that introduced species disproportionately interact with other introduced species. These processes are likely to amplify biotic homogenization in future ecosystems7 and may reduce the resilience of ecosystems by allowing perturbations to propagate more quickly and exposing disparate ecosystems to similar drivers. Our results highlight the importance of managing the increasing homogenization of ecological complexity.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Espécies Introduzidas , Filogeografia , Plantas , Simbiose , Animais , Biodiversidade , Atividades Humanas , Dispersão de Sementes , Análise Espaço-Temporal
5.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 700, 2020 Sep 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32967639

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in China at the end of 2019 and it has since spread in few months all over the World. Italy was one of the first Western countries who faced the health emergency and is one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic. The diffusion of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy has followed a peculiar spatial pattern, however the attention of the scientific community has so far focussed almost exclusively on the prediction of the evolution of the disease over time. METHODS: Official freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. An endemic-epidemic time-series mixed-effects generalized linear model for areal disease counts has been implemented to understand and predict spatio-temporal diffusion of the phenomenon. RESULTS: Three subcomponents characterize the fitted model. The first describes the transmission of the illness within provinces; the second accounts for the transmission between nearby provinces; the third is related to the evolution of the disease over time. At the local level, the provinces first concerned by containment measures are those that are not affected by the effects of spatial neighbours. On the other hand, the component accounting for the spatial interaction with surrounding areas is prevalent for provinces that are strongly involved by contagions. Moreover, the proposed model provides good forecasts for the number of infections at local level while controlling for delayed reporting. CONCLUSIONS: A strong evidence is found that strict control measures implemented in some provinces efficiently break contagions and limit the spread to nearby areas. While containment policies may potentially be more effective if planned considering the peculiarities of local territories, the effective and homogeneous enforcement of control measures at national level is needed to prevent the disease control being delayed or missed as a whole. This may also apply at international level where, as it is for the European Union or the United States, the internal border checks among states have largely been abolished.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Betacoronavirus , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Geografia , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Modelos Lineares , Pandemias , Saúde Pública , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Fatores de Tempo
6.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0239645, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32970773

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: As a new emerging infectious disease pandemic, there is an urgent need to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in each country to inform planning of emergency measures to contain its spread. It is essential that appropriate disease control activities are planned and implemented in a timely manner. Thailand was one of the first countries outside China to be affected with subsequent importation and domestic spread in most provinces in the country. METHOD: A key ingredient to guide planning and implementation of public health measures is a metric of transmissibility which represents the infectiousness of a disease. Ongoing policies can utilize this information to plan appropriately with updated estimates of disease transmissibility. Therefore we present descriptive analyses and preliminary statistical estimation of reproduction numbers over time and space to facilitate disease control activities in Thailand. RESULTS: The estimated basic reproduction number for COVID-19 during the study ranged from 2.23-5.90, with a mean of 3.75. We also tracked disease dynamics over time using temporal and spatiotemporal reproduction numbers. The results suggest that the outbreak was under control since the middle of April. After the boxing stadium and entertainment venues, the numbers of new cases had increased and spread across the country. DISCUSSION: Although various scenarios about assumptions were explored in this study, the real situation was difficult to determine given the limited data. More thorough mathematical modelling would be helpful to improve the estimation of transmissibility metrics for emergency preparedness as more epidemiological and clinical information about this new infection becomes available. However, the results can be used to guide interventions directly and to help parameterize models to predict the impact of these interventions.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Número Básico de Reprodução , Betacoronavirus , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias , Tailândia/epidemiologia
7.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 41(8): 1319-1323, 2020 Aug 10.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32867443

RESUMO

Objective: To understand the characteristics of spatiotemporal clustering on hepatitis A in Gansu province and to provide evidence for hepatitis A prevention and control. Methods: Data related to hepatitis A were retrieved from National Notifiable Disease Report System, ArcGIS 10.3 and SaTScan 9.1 in Gansu province from 2004 to 2018. Results: The annual average report incidence rate of hepatitis A was 10.91/100 000, showing a descending trend with no periodic or seasonal features. After the implementation of national expanded immunization program, high annual incidence rates had been seen in Linxia Hui autonomous prefecture and Gannan Tibetan autonomous prefecture. From 2004 to 2012, the lowest RR value appeared in the 0-9 age group (P=0.000) while the highest RR value was in the over 60 age group during 2013-2018 except for the age 0-9 group in 2015. The annual average incidence rate was increasing from south to north and west to east, across the territory. Results from the temporal scanning program revealed that the incidence of hepatitis A was temporally aggregated from 2004 to 2018. For spatio-temporal scanning of 2004-2008, data showed one most likely cluster area (radius: 91.95 km, Time frame: 2004-2005), apparel mainly in Linxia and Longnan cities. Results from the spatio-temporal scanning program of 2009-2018 also showed that the most likely cluster areas (radius: 183.26 km, Time frame: 2009-2012) were in Gannan, Linxia, Dingxi and Longnan areas. Conclusions: The reported incidence rates of hepatitis A were declining, without significant periodic or seasonal pattern in Gansu province from 2004 to 2018. In the 0-9 years-old group, the incidence rate showed the lowest, while the highest was in the 60 year-olds group. Spatio-temporal clustering of hepatitis A was observed in Gansu province from 2004 to 2018. Strategies on prevention and control of the disease should be targeted in the southwest regions of the province.


Assuntos
Hepatite A/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , China/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Análise por Conglomerados , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Espaço-Temporal
8.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0238067, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32866165

RESUMO

AIMS: To determine the out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) rates and occurrences at municipality level through a novel statistical model accounting for temporal and spatial heterogeneity, space-time interactions and demographic features. We also aimed to predict OHCAs rates and number at municipality level for the upcoming years estimating the related resources requirement. METHODS: All the consecutive OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin occurred from 2005 until 2018 in Canton Ticino region were included. We implemented an Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation statistical method for estimation and prediction of municipality OHCA rates, number of events and related uncertainties, using age and sex municipality compositions. Comparisons between predicted and real OHCA maps validated our model, whilst comparisons between estimated OHCA rates in different yeas and municipalities identified significantly different OHCA rates over space and time. Longer-time predicted OHCA maps provided Bayesian predictions of OHCA coverages in varying stressful conditions. RESULTS: 2344 OHCAs were analyzed. OHCA incidence either progressively reduced or continuously increased over time in 6.8% of municipalities despite an overall stable spatio-temporal distribution of OHCAs. The predicted number of OHCAs accounts for 89% (2017) and 90% (2018) of the yearly variability of observed OHCAs with prediction error ≤1OHCA for each year in most municipalities. An increase in OHCAs number with a decline in the Automatic External Defibrillator availability per OHCA at region was estimated. CONCLUSIONS: Our method enables prediction of OHCA risk at municipality level with high accuracy, providing a novel approach to estimate resource allocation and anticipate gaps in demand in upcoming years.


Assuntos
Recursos em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Estatísticos , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/epidemiologia , Idoso , Teorema de Bayes , Feminino , Geografia , Humanos , Masculino , Sistema de Registros , Análise Espaço-Temporal
9.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 16(9): e1008269, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32941419

RESUMO

We propose an efficient framework for genetic subtyping of SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes the COVID-19 pandemic. Efficient viral subtyping enables visualization and modeling of the geographic distribution and temporal dynamics of disease spread. Subtyping thereby advances the development of effective containment strategies and, potentially, therapeutic and vaccine strategies. However, identifying viral subtypes in real-time is challenging: SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus, and the pandemic is rapidly expanding. Viral subtypes may be difficult to detect due to rapid evolution; founder effects are more significant than selection pressure; and the clustering threshold for subtyping is not standardized. We propose to identify mutational signatures of available SARS-CoV-2 sequences using a population-based approach: an entropy measure followed by frequency analysis. These signatures, Informative Subtype Markers (ISMs), define a compact set of nucleotide sites that characterize the most variable (and thus most informative) positions in the viral genomes sequenced from different individuals. Through ISM compression, we find that certain distant nucleotide variants covary, including non-coding and ORF1ab sites covarying with the D614G spike protein mutation which has become increasingly prevalent as the pandemic has spread. ISMs are also useful for downstream analyses, such as spatiotemporal visualization of viral dynamics. By analyzing sequence data available in the GISAID database, we validate the utility of ISM-based subtyping by comparing spatiotemporal analyses using ISMs to epidemiological studies of viral transmission in Asia, Europe, and the United States. In addition, we show the relationship of ISMs to phylogenetic reconstructions of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and therefore, ISMs can play an important complementary role to phylogenetic tree-based analysis, such as is done in the Nextstrain project. The developed pipeline dynamically generates ISMs for newly added SARS-CoV-2 sequences and updates the visualization of pandemic spatiotemporal dynamics, and is available on Github at https://github.com/EESI/ISM (Jupyter notebook), https://github.com/EESI/ncov_ism (command line tool) and via an interactive website at https://covid19-ism.coe.drexel.edu/.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/classificação , Betacoronavirus/genética , Infecções por Coronavirus , Genômica/métodos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Evolução Molecular , Marcadores Genéticos/genética , Genoma Viral/genética , Humanos , Mutação/genética , Filogenia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , RNA Viral/genética , Alinhamento de Sequência , Análise de Sequência de RNA , Análise Espaço-Temporal
10.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 41(7): 1165-1170, 2020 Jul 10.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32741189

RESUMO

In recent years, the research of spatiotemporal clustering of disease is attracting more and more attention, which plays an important role in understanding the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of diseases, and can provide references for the etiology exploration and prevention and control of diseases. In order to better understand the research methods of spatiotemporal clustering of diseases and its application progress, this paper summarizes the statistical methods commonly used in relevant researches at demestic and abroad from three aspects of temporal clustering, spatial clustering and spatiotemporal clustering of diseases.


Assuntos
Pesquisa Biomédica/tendências , Doença , Análise por Conglomerados , Humanos , Análise Espaço-Temporal
11.
Environ Monit Assess ; 192(9): 578, 2020 Aug 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32780308

RESUMO

Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of water quality is central to its management as it provides information essential to the restoration as well as protection of water resources. The main objectives of this study were (i) to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of water quality and (ii) to identify the critical sources of pollution in the Klip River catchment (KRC). Water samples were collected at 12 sampling points along the Klip River, monthly from February 2016 to January 2017 and analyzed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and spectrophotometry for heavy metals and nutrients, respectively. Multivariate statistical techniques (cluster analysis and discriminant analysis) were used to delineate homogeneous water quality zones and seasons, and principal component analysis was used to identify pollution sources. Comprehensive pollution index (CPI) was also computed to classify the overall pollution of the river. The spatial grouping yielded two homogenous water quality zones namely upstream and downstream. Temporal grouping yielded two clusters, which were attributed to the effects of the El Nino (2015/16 season) and La Nina phenomena (2016/17 season). The CPI revealed that the KRC was critically polluted in the upstream for domestic (162.16-323.28) and aquatic uses (617.70-837.09) in both the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 seasons. It can be concluded that pollutants, which influence water quality in the KRC in one season and/or location, may not necessarily be the same in the other season or location. Therefore, there is need to develop a water quality management plan in the KRC that targets the most impaired uses, pollutants of priority, and the critically polluted areas.


Assuntos
Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise , Qualidade da Água , Monitoramento Ambiental , Estações do Ano , África do Sul , Análise Espaço-Temporal
12.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0227469, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32822345

RESUMO

China's rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to poor air quality, and air pollution has caused great concern among the Chinese public. Most analyses of air pollution trends in China are based on model simulations or satellite data. Studies using field observation data and focusing on the latest data from environmental monitoring stations covering the whole country to assess the latest trends of different pollutants in different regions are relatively rare. The State Council of China promulgated the toughest-ever Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (Action Plan) in 2013. This led to a major improvement in air quality. We use the hourly Air Quality Index (AQI) and mass concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, CO, NO2, O3, and SO2 in 362 cities from 2015 to 2019, obtained from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, to study their temporal and spatial changes and assess the effectiveness of the policy on the atmospheric environment since its promulgation and implementation. We found that the national and regional air quality in China continues to improve, with PM2.5, PM10, AQI, CO, and SO2 exhibiting negative trends. However, O3 and NO2 pollution is an urgent problem that needs to be solved and the current control strategy for PM2.5 will only partially reduce the PM2.5 pollution in the western region. Although the implementation of "Action Plan" measures has effectively improved air quality, China's air pollution is still serious and far from the WHO standard. Implementing measures for continuous and effective emissions control is still a top priority.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Poluentes Atmosféricos/química , China
13.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0236278, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32841247

RESUMO

Rabies is a lethal viral disease and dogs are the major disease reservoir in the Philippines. Spatio-temporal variations in environmental factors are known to affect disease dynamics. Some rabies-affected countries considered investigating the role of weather components in driving rabies cases and it has helped them to strategize their control efforts. In this study, cointegration analysis was conducted between the monthly reported rabies cases and the weather components, such as temperature and precipitation, to verify the effect of weather components on rabies incidence in Davao City, Philippines. With the Engle-Granger cointegration tests, we found that rabies cases are cointegrated into each of the weather components. It was further validated, using the Granger causality test, that each weather component predicts the rabies cases and not vice versa. Moreover, we performed the Johansen cointegration test to show that the weather components simultaneously affect the number of rabies cases, which allowed us to estimate a vector-error correction model for rabies incidence as a function of temperature and precipitation. Our analyses showed that canine rabies in Davao City was weather-sensitive, which implies that rabies incidence could be projected using established long-run relationship among reported rabies cases, temperature, and precipitation. This study also provides empirical evidence that can guide local health officials in formulating preventive strategies for rabies control and eradication based on weather patterns.


Assuntos
Reservatórios de Doenças/virologia , Cães/virologia , Monitorização de Parâmetros Ecológicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Raiva/epidemiologia , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Animais , Causalidade , Cidades/estatística & dados numéricos , Conjuntos de Dados como Assunto , Previsões/métodos , Humanos , Incidência , Modelos Estatísticos , Filipinas/epidemiologia , Raiva/prevenção & controle , Raiva/virologia , Vírus da Raiva , Análise Espaço-Temporal
14.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 1238, 2020 Aug 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32795276

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Standardized mortality surveillance data, capable of detecting variations in total mortality at population level and not only among the infected, provide an unbiased insight into the impact of epidemics, like COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease). We analysed the temporal trend in total excess mortality and deaths among positive cases of SARS-CoV-2 by geographical area (north and centre-south), age and sex, taking into account the deficit in mortality in previous months. METHODS: Data from the Italian rapid mortality surveillance system was used to quantify excess deaths during the epidemic, to estimate the mortality deficit during the previous months and to compare total excess mortality with deaths among positive cases of SARS-CoV-2. Data were stratified by geographical area (north vs centre and south), age and sex. RESULTS: COVID-19 had a greater impact in northern Italian cities among subjects aged 75-84 and 85+ years. COVID-19 deaths accounted for half of total excess mortality in both areas, with differences by age: almost all excess deaths were from COVID-19 among adults, while among the elderly only one third of the excess was coded as COVID-19. When taking into account the mortality deficit in the pre-pandemic period, different trends were observed by area: all excess mortality during COVID-19 was explained by deficit mortality in the centre and south, while only a 16% overlap was estimated in northern cities, with quotas decreasing by age, from 67% in the 15-64 years old to 1% only among subjects 85+ years old. CONCLUSIONS: An underestimation of COVID-19 deaths is particularly evident among the elderly. When quantifying the burden in mortality related to COVID-19, it is important to consider seasonal dynamics in mortality. Surveillance data provides an impartial indicator for monitoring the following phases of the epidemic, and may help in the evaluation of mitigation measures adopted.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Mortalidade/tendências , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Cidades/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Adulto Jovem
15.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0237901, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32817697

RESUMO

Among the different indicators that quantify the spread of an epidemic such as the on-going COVID-19, stands first the reproduction number which measures how many people can be contaminated by an infected person. In order to permit the monitoring of the evolution of this number, a new estimation procedure is proposed here, assuming a well-accepted model for current incidence data, based on past observations. The novelty of the proposed approach is twofold: 1) the estimation of the reproduction number is achieved by convex optimization within a proximal-based inverse problem formulation, with constraints aimed at promoting piecewise smoothness; 2) the approach is developed in a multivariate setting, allowing for the simultaneous handling of multiple time series attached to different geographical regions, together with a spatial (graph-based) regularization of their evolutions in time. The effectiveness of the approach is first supported by simulations, and two main applications to real COVID-19 data are then discussed. The first one refers to the comparative evolution of the reproduction number for a number of countries, while the second one focuses on French departments and their joint analysis, leading to dynamic maps revealing the temporal co-evolution of their reproduction numbers.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Modelos Estatísticos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Algoritmos , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Bases de Dados Factuais , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/estatística & dados numéricos , França/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Distribuição de Poisson , Software
16.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 14(8): e0008445, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32745113

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, acute Chagas disease (ACD) surveillance involves mandatory notification, which allows for population-based epidemiological studies. We conducted a nationwide population-based ecological analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns of ACD notifications in Brazil using secondary surveillance data obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) maintained by Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this nationwide population-based ecological all cases of ACD reported in Brazil between 2001 and 2018 were included. Epidemiological characteristics and time trends were analyzed through joinpoint regression models and spatial distribution using microregions as the unit of analysis. A total of 5,184 cases of ACD were recorded during the period under study. The annual incidence rate in Brazil was 0.16 per 100,000 inhabitants/year. Three statistically significant changes in time trends were identified: a rapid increase prior to 2005 (Period 1), a stable drop from 2005 to 2009 (Period 2), followed by another increasing trend after 2009 (Period 3). Higher frequencies were noted in males and females in the North (all three periods) and in females in Northeast (Periods 1 and 2) macroregions, as well as in individuals aged between 20-64 years in the Northeast, and children, adolescents and the elderly in the North macroregion. Vectorial transmission was the main route reported during Period 1, while oral transmission was found to increase significantly in the North during the other periods. Spatiotemporal distribution was heterogeneous in Brazil over time. Despite regional differences, over time cases of ACD decreased significantly nationwide. An increasing trend was noted in the North (especially after 2007), and significant decreases occurred after 2008 among all microregions other than those in the North, especially those in the Northeast and Central-West macroregions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In light of the newly identified epidemiological profile of CD transmission in Brazil, we emphasize the need for strategically integrated entomological and health surveillance actions.


Assuntos
Doença de Chagas/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Brasil/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Saúde Pública , Estudos Retrospectivos , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Adulto Jovem
17.
Euro Surveill ; 25(32)2020 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32794443

RESUMO

We show the distribution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic clades over time and between countries and outline potential genomic surveillance objectives. We applied three genomic nomenclature systems to all sequence data from the World Health Organization European Region available until 10 July 2020. We highlight the importance of real-time sequencing and data dissemination in a pandemic situation, compare the nomenclatures and lay a foundation for future European genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/genética , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Coronavirus/genética , Genoma Viral/genética , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , RNA Replicase/genética , RNA Viral/análise , Sequência de Bases , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidade , Coronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Filogeografia , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , RNA Viral/genética , Síndrome Respiratória Aguda Grave , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Organização Mundial da Saúde
18.
Chemosphere ; 260: 127572, 2020 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32758771

RESUMO

Beijing is one of the most polluted cities in the world. However, the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan" (APPCAP), introduced since 2013 in China, has created an unprecedented drop in pollution concentrations for five major pollutants, except O3, with a significant drop in mortalities across most parts of the city. To assess the effects of APPCAP, air pollution data were collected from 35 sites (divided into four types, namely, urban, suburban, regional background, and traffic) in Beijing, from 2014 to 2018 and analyzed. Simultaneously, health-risk based air quality index (HAQI) and district-specific pollution (PM2.5 and O3) attributed mortality were calculated for Beijing. The results show that the annual PM2.5 concentration exceeded the Chinese national ambient air quality standard Grade II (35 µg/m3) in all sites, ranging from 88.5 ± 77.4 µg/m3 for the suburban site to 98.6 ± 89.0 µg/m3 for the traffic site in 2014, but was reduced to 50.6 ± 46.6 µg/m3 for the suburban site, and 56.1 ± 47.0 µg/m3 for the regional background in 2018. O3 was another most important pollutant that exceeded the Grade II standard (160 µg/m3) for a total of 291 days. It peaked at 311.6 µg/m3 in 2014 for the urban site and 290.6 µg/m3 in 2018 in the suburban site. APPCAP led to a significant reduction in PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2 and CO concentrations by 7.4, 8.1, 2.4, 1.9 and 80 µg/m3/year respectively, though O3 concentration was increased by 1.3 µg/m3/year during the five-years. HAQI results suggest that during the high pollution days, the more vulnerable groups, such as the children, and the elderly, should take additional precautions, beyond the recommendations currently put forward by Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center (BJMEMC). In 2014, PM2.5 and O3 attributed to 29,270 and 3,030 deaths respectively, though in 2018 their mortalities were reduced by 5.6% and 18.5% respectively. The highest mortality was observed in Haidian and Chaoyang districts, two of the most densely populated areas in Beijing. Beijing's air quality has seen a dramatic improvement over the five-year period, which can be attributable to the implementation of APPCAP and the central government's determination, with significant drops in the mortalities due to PM2.5 and O3 in parallel. To further improve air quality in Beijing, more stringent regulatory measures should be introduced to control volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and reduce O3 concentrations. Consistent air pollution control interventions will be needed to ensure long-term prosperity and environmental sustainability in Beijing, China's most powerful city. This study provides a robust methodology for analyzing air pollution trends, health risks and mortalities in China. The crucial evidence generated forms the basis for the governments in China to introduce location-specific air pollution policy interventions to further reduce air pollution in Beijing and other parts of China. The methodology presented in this study can form the basis for future fine-grained air pollution and health risk study at the city-district level in China.


Assuntos
Poluição do Ar/análise , Poluição do Ar/prevenção & controle , Idoso , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Pequim/epidemiologia , Monóxido de Carbono/análise , Criança , Monitoramento Ambiental , Indicadores Básicos de Saúde , Humanos , Mortalidade , Material Particulado/análise , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Dióxido de Enxofre/análise
19.
Ecotoxicol Environ Saf ; 204: 111064, 2020 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32738625

RESUMO

Very limited studies have evaluated the impact of rainfall on the fate of endocrine-disrupting micropollutants in lacustrine systems. This yearlong study investigated monthly fluctuation of bisphenol A (BPA) and 4-nonylphenol (NP) concentrations in both water and sediment samples from Taihu Lake and evaluated the impact of rainfall on their spatiotemporal distribution and partition trends. Results showed that BPA concentration in water was negatively correlated to rainfall while NP concentrations in both phases were positively related to rainfall. The spatial distribution of NP in the lake water was season specific with the lakeshore area higher than the central area during the wet season and a reversed pattern during the dry season. The spatial distributions of sediment-associated NP and BPA in both phases were not significantly different among seasons. Contrary partition tendencies were observed for BPA and NP that BPA tended to desorb from sediment and NP tended to be adsorbed during the wet season while the trends were reversed during the dry season. This study suggests that rainfall could affect the occurrence, distribution and environmental fate of micropollutants and should be considered in the monitoring program and risk assessment.


Assuntos
Compostos Benzidrílicos/análise , Disruptores Endócrinos/análise , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Lagos/química , Fenóis/análise , Chuva/química , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise , China , Medição de Risco , Estações do Ano , Análise Espaço-Temporal
20.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0237827, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32813743

RESUMO

It is vast significance to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of herbivorous animal husbandry industry based on the context of China's agriculture pursuing high-quality development. In this paper, we analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of the layout of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry and its influencing factors based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis, standard deviation ellipse, and spatial Durbin model with data from 1980 to 2017. The results show that there are significant positive autocorrelation characteristics of "high-high" aggregation and "low-low" aggregation in the Chinese herbivorous animal husbandry industry. To be specific, in the past four decades, the spatial distribution center of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry has moved towards the northeast, crossing the boundary between agriculture and animal husbandry in China, presenting a clear trend of moving from pastoral area to agricultural area; the gradual narrowing of the spatial distribution range indicates the gradually increased degree of aggregation within the industry; the east-west stretch of spatial distribution has been strengthened, and the azimuth angle shows clockwise change, suggesting that the industrial expansion in the northeast-southwest direction is prominent; the influencing factors of changes in the spatial distribution of the industry reveal that the quantity and production capacity of productive land, people's income and living standards, and the level of mechanization will promote the development of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry, and are essential factors influencing industrial distribution and transfer, while policy factor has small or even not significant impact on industrial aggregation, reflecting that the policy has not played the expected role, and policy support needs to be further intensified.


Assuntos
Criação de Animais Domésticos , Herbivoria/fisiologia , Indústrias , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Agricultura , Animais , China , Análise Fatorial , Geografia , Modelos Econométricos , Políticas , Análise de Regressão , Análise Espacial , Fatores de Tempo
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA