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1.
Rev Saude Publica ; 53: 84, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês, Português | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31576944

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To describe the infestation of the municipalities of São Paulo by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, characterize seasonality and analyze average temperatures and larval densities. METHODS: We used maps with information on the infestation of municipalities between 1986 and 2015. The analysis of larval density of the species by the Wilcoxon test used the Breteau index values for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus obtained from the Superintendency for Endemic Diseases Control database. In the seasonal description, arithmetic means of each vector were calculated by month and year. Mean temperature analyses were presented on maps with color gradients. RESULTS: The state of São Paulo is currently almost totally infested, with co-occurrence of species in 93.64% of the municipalities. The seasonality analysis showed the first quarter as the most favorable period for larval abundance. The increase of mean temperatures in geographical areas coincided with the temporal trajectory of Ae. aegypti territorial expansion. The mean larval density found was higher for Ae. aegypti than for Ae. albopictus (p = 0.00). CONCLUSIONS: Initially, these Culicidae occupied distinct and opposing areas. Over time, however, co-occurrence showed how great their capacity for adaptation is, even in the face of different social and urban conjunctures. The increase of the mean temperature contributed to Ae. Aegypti 's geographic expansion, as well as to the clearly seasonal profile of both species. In general, larval infestation by Ae. aegypti prevailed, which evidenced its competitive superiority. These data provide a better understanding of the dynamics of arboviral transmission in the state of São Paulo and can be used in vector surveillance and control.


Assuntos
Aedes , Arbovirus , Mosquitos Vetores , Animais , Brasil/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Densidade Demográfica , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estações do Ano , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Temperatura Ambiente , Fatores de Tempo
2.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 40(9): 1099-1105, 2019 Sep 10.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31594153

RESUMO

Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution and both hot and cold spots of incidence on Brucellosis in Gansu province from 2013 to 2018. Methods: Based on data from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System in China, data related to space-time distribution and both hot and cold spots of Brucellosis in Gansu province from 2013 to 2018 were analyzed, by using the ArcGIS 10.5 software and GeoDa 1.6 software. Results: The trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of Brucellosis decreased gradually from the northern to southern parts with slightly higher in the west than in the east of Gansu. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran's I of Brucellosis in Gansu province from 2013 to 2018 were 0.242, 0.487, 0.424, 0.460, 0.427 and 0.468 (P<0.01), suggesting that the incidence of Brucellosis had spatial clustering features in Gansu province. Local global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the number of hot spots were declining in the eastern and north-central regions while the hot spots were increasing in the Hexi area (Wuwei, Zhangye, Jinchang and Jiuquan cities). The cold spots areas were mainly seen in the eastern, southeastern and south of central regions in Gansu province. Conclusions: The incidence of Brucellosis showed obviously spatial clustering characteristics in Gansu province. The number of hot spots were decreasing in the eastern and north of central regions while the hot spots were increasing in the Hexi area, suggesting that the prevention and control measures for Brucellosis should be further strengthened in these areas.


Assuntos
Brucelose/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Cidades , Análise por Conglomerados , Humanos , Análise Espacial , Análise Espaço-Temporal
3.
Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi Za Zhi ; 31(4): 393-399, 2019 Sep 25.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31612674

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis in Sichuan Province from 2007 to 2017, so as to provide reference for the formulation of echinococcosis prevention and control strategies and for the identification of key areas. METHODS: The spatial distribution maps of detection of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis were plotted in Sichuan Province from 2007 to 2017, and the spatial distribution characteristics and epidemic trends were analyzed. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2017, the detection rate of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis appeared a decline in Sichuan Province year by year, and the areas with a high detection rate of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis were mainly located in western, northwestern and northern parts of Sichuan Province, while the areas with a low detection rate were predominantly found in the southern and eastern parts of the province. The global Moran's I values were 0.19, 0.22, 0.17, 0.44, 0.48, 0.31 and 0.16 for the detection rate of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2016 (all Z scores > 1.96, all P values < 0.05), suggesting spatial aggregation distribution during this period. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the"high-high"areas and"low-low"areas for the detection rate of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis all showed an aggregation tendency. CONCLUSIONS: The detection rate of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis decreases in Sichuan Province from 2007 to 2017 year by year, and shows a spatial aggregation. The echinococcosis control activities should be intensified in Shiqu, Seda, Dege, Ganzi and Baiyu counties.


Assuntos
Equinococose , Análise Espaço-Temporal , China/epidemiologia , Equinococose/diagnóstico , Equinococose/epidemiologia , Equinococose/prevenção & controle , Epidemias , Humanos , Fatores de Tempo
4.
Rev Bras Epidemiol ; 22Suppl 1(Suppl 1): e190007, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês, Português | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31576983

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the pattern of spatial distribution of hepatitis B virus (HBV) cases and the mortality attributed to this disease throughout the Brazilian territory, in 2005, 2016 and 2017. METHODS: This is an ecological study of spatial analysis, using data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases and the Brazilian Mortality Information System. HBV detection and mortality rates were analyzed. The spatial analysis from 2005 to 2017 was held through the Global Moran's Index (I) for global data and the Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) for the 5,564 municipalities of the country. RESULTS: The North region stands out with the highest HBV detection and mortality rates in the country. The Global Moran's I showed a spatial correlation of HBV cases in Brazil, and the LISA Map evidenced the presence of hotspots or spatial clusters (high-high type), mainly in the North region and also in some municipalities of Santa Catarina, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Espírito Santo, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. CONCLUSION: The spatial analysis of the HBV distribution pattern in Brazil shows areas with a large concentration of cases, particularly in the North of the country and in other points distributed throughout the national territory. These data reinforce the urgency of intervention actions related to prevention, diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis B.


Assuntos
Vírus da Hepatite B , Hepatite B/mortalidade , Brasil/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Geografia , Humanos , Mortalidade/tendências , Prevalência , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Fatores de Tempo
5.
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop ; 52: e20190266, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31596354

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Chikungunya causes fever and severe and persistent joint pain. METHODS: We reported a chikungunya outbreak that occurred in Ceará State, Brazil between 2016 and 2017 with emphasis on epidemiological characterization of cases, high number of deaths, mortality-associated factors, and spatial and temporal spread of the epidemic among municipalities. RESULTS: In November 2015, the first autochthonous cases of chikungunya were confirmed in Ceará, Brazil. In 2016-2017, 195,993 cases were reported, with an incidence of 2,186.5/100,000 inhabitants and 244 confirmed deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid transmission and high mortality rate are serious problems, especially in regions with co-circulating arboviruses.


Assuntos
Febre de Chikungunya/mortalidade , Surtos de Doenças , Adulto , Brasil/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Adulto Jovem
6.
Se Pu ; 37(8): 806-814, 2019 Aug 08.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31642250

RESUMO

Endogenous phytohormone is a kind of trace organic small molecule compound synthesized in plants. It plays important roles in regulating the growth and development of plants throughout their life cycles, and responding to external stimuli. With the development of analytical methods for the detection of phytohormone, the amount of analytical samples is gradually reduced. Moreover, the differences in the types and contents of phytohormones in different plant tissues (or organs) are constantly presented. These developments greatly promote the study of the physiological effects of plant hormones. In recent years, the temporal and spatial distribution of endogenous phytohormones in several plant samples has attracted more and more attention in plant hormone analysis. This review summarizes the research progress made in the study of the spatial and temporal distribution of endogenous phytohormones in the last five years. Mainly, the review summarizes and discusses the difficulties associated with analysis, the development of analytical methods, and the spatial and temporal distribution of major plant hormones. The sampling methods, sample preparation and detection methods for spatial and temporal distribution studies are discussed in detail with a special focus on our work in plant hormone detection. Finally, the future development of the plant hormone analysis research field analysis is prospected.


Assuntos
Reguladores de Crescimento de Planta/fisiologia , Plantas , Análise Espaço-Temporal
7.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 40(8): 930-935, 2019 Aug 10.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31484256

RESUMO

Objective: To explore the spatial-temporal distribution and epidemic characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Hebei province from 2005 to 2016. Methods: Records of HFRS cases reported from each county in Hebei during January 2005 to December 2016 were collected from National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS). Global and local spatial association statistics were used to measure the spatial autocorrelation and software GeoDa 1.2.0. Software SaTScan 9.4.1 was used to analyze spatiotemporal clusters. Software ArcGIS 10.2 was used to visualize the yearly scan results. Results: In Hebei province, a total of 8 437 human HFRS cases reported from 170 counties with an annual incidence rate of 0.99/100 000 population during 2005-2016. The peak incidence season was spring. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis on the incidence of HFRS at county-level showed that the value of Moran's I were all above 0 (P<0.05), indicating that the significant spatial cluster. The result of local indicators on spatial association (LISA) analysis revealed that identified hot spots were mainly in northeastern area, while cold spots were found in some counties of central and southern areas. Spatial-temporal scan detected that the primary cluster of HFRS incidence was mainly distributed in Qinhuangdao city and Tangshan city, including 11 counties (city/district): Beidaihe district, Haigang district, Funing district, Shanhaiguan district, Changli county, Lulong county and Qinglong Manchu autonomous county in Qinhuangdao city, and Qian'an city, Laoting county, Luanzhou city and Luannan county in Tangshan city (RR=39.64, P<0.001), during January-July in 2005. Conclusions: There were significant spatial-temporal cluster of HFRS in Hebei from 2005 to 2016. The cluster areas of HFRS were mainly in northeastern Hebei, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control programs of HFRS in these areas.


Assuntos
Notificação de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Vírus Hantaan , Febre Hemorrágica com Síndrome Renal/epidemiologia , Vigilância da População , China/epidemiologia , Cidades , Análise por Conglomerados , Humanos , Incidência , Estações do Ano , Análise Espacial , Análise Espaço-Temporal
8.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 40(8): 947-952, 2019 Aug 10.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31484259

RESUMO

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological and spatial-temporal distribution of Brucellosis, epidemic encephalitis B and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Gansu province during 2014-2018 so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of those diseases. Methods: A database was established in Gansu province from 2014 to 2018, using the geographical information system. A spatial distribution map was drawn, with trend analysis and space-time clustering used to study the 3-dimention of the diseases, by using both ArcGIS 10.5 and SaTScan 9.6 softwares. Results: Results from the trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of Brucellosis decreased gradually from north to south parts while the U type curve could reflect the distribution from the east to the west areas. Incidence of epidemic encephalitis B decreased significantly from south to north areas in the province, with incidence higher in the eastern than in the mid-west region. Difference on the incidence of HFRS was not significantly visible in the eastern and western regions, while the incidence was slightly higher in the southern than the northern parts of the province. Spatial and space-time clustering did exist among the 3 diseases in Gansu from 2014 to 2018. The areas with clusters of Brucellosis appeared in the eastern parts during 2014-2015, including 19 counties. The areas with secondary clusters of Brucellosis were seen in the Hexi district, including 4 counties, during 2017-2018. The areas with high incidence of epidemic encephalitis B were clustered in the middle and southeast areas, including 32 counties, during 2017-2018. Areas with most clusters of HFRS appeared in Min county of Dingxi city in 2018, with the areas of secondary clusters in 8 counties of the eastern areas in 2018. Conclusions: The overall incidence rates of the 3 natural focus diseases were in a upward trend and showing obvious characteristics on spatial clustering. According to the distributive characteristics, effective measures should be developed accordingly.


Assuntos
Brucelose/epidemiologia , Notificação de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Encefalite por Arbovirus/epidemiologia , Febre Hemorrágica com Síndrome Renal/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Cidades , Análise por Conglomerados , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Humanos , Incidência , Conglomerados Espaço-Temporais , Análise Espacial , Análise Espaço-Temporal
9.
Pneumologie ; 73(9): 516-522, 2019 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31533173

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Big cities in Europe have the highest incidence rates of TB in otherwise low incidence settings. Understanding of the spatio-temporal patterns of TB incidence can support efforts for TB prevention and control in line with the End-TB Strategy of the WHO in such settings for low incidence settings. METHODS: Data from the municipal TB register of Cologne collected between 2006 and 2015 under the infection prevention legislation were retrieved, addresses geographically identified and all notified incident TB cases retrospectively analysed for their spatial and temporal distribution in this large German city using a geographic information system. RESULTS: During the analysed period 1,038 incident cases were reported, equivalent to an incidence rate of 10.03 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Contagious pulmonary TB contributed 57 % of all cases. Distribution patterns changed over time with decreases in 37 and increases in 22 of the 77 urban sub-districts, three of which showing constant high rates of TB incidence. CONCLUSION: The study presents a complementary method to monitor the distribution and development of incident TB cases at a disaggregated level of urban sub-districts. Identification of areas with comparatively high incidence can support identification of clusters respectively their prevention and allow better planning for targeted local TB services.


Assuntos
Análise Espaço-Temporal , Tuberculose Pulmonar/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Geografia , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Sistema de Registros , Estudos Retrospectivos , Distribuição por Sexo , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Tuberculose Pulmonar/diagnóstico
10.
J Environ Manage ; 249: 109352, 2019 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31493686

RESUMO

One of the most popular policy mechanisms for greenhouse gas emissions regulation is cap-and-trade which is a market-based approach that has come to dominate partially because of its flexibility. With flexibility, however, comes the potential for the clustering of greenhouse gas emissions. To understand whether emissions trading leads to localized clustering of emissions changes, we perform a systematic, spatio-economic assessment of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). We analyze the spatial pattern of emissions changes from individual plants across the EU as well as how the pattern changes during the first two phases of the ETS implementation. Our findings indicate that there was clustering of emissions changes at the EU and country level which peaked at the start of the second phase but declined as the EU ETS matured. We also found that iron and steel, coke ovens, and refining have greater clustering and volatility compared to other industries. Based on the air quality implications of these clustered emissions, certain countries and industry types might need additional attention during the ETS design or redesign process. This study makes a novel contribution by systematically evaluating the spatio-temporal and equity implications of emissions distribution in cap-and-trade systems.


Assuntos
Poluição do Ar , Gases de Efeito Estufa , União Europeia , Indústrias , Análise Espaço-Temporal
11.
Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi Za Zhi ; 31(3): 269-274, 2019 Aug 28.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31544405

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To explore the spatial-temporal clustering distribution of schistosomiasis transmission risk in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2015, so as to provide scientific evidence for the future schistosomiasis control and consolidation of the control achievements. METHODS: All data pertaining to endemic situation of human and bovine schistosomiasis and snail survey at a township level in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2015 were collected. A descriptive epidemiological method and Joinpoint model were used to describe the changing trends of Schistosoma japonicum infections in humans, bovine and snails, and the hotspots and clusters of schistosomiasis transmission risk were identified using spatial autocorrelation analysis, hotspots analysis and retrospective space-time scan statistic in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2015. RESULTS: The prevalence of S. japonicum infections appeared a continuous decline in humans, bovine and snails in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2015, and the estimated number of schistosomiasis cases reduced from 43 056 in 2004 to 756 in 2015, with a decline rate of 98.24%. There were no acute cases since 2008 and no infected snails since 2014 in Yunnan Province. There were significant differences in the changing trends of human and bovine S. japonicum infections in Yunnan Province between 2012 and 2015 and between 2013 and 2015, respectively using the Joinpoint model (P < 0.05). In addition, there was a spatial autocorrelation in human S. japonicum infections in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2013 (P < 0.01), and the hotspots areas for human S. japonicum infections were mainly distributed in some townships from Dali City, Weishan County and Eryuan County. Retrospective spatial-temporal scanning revealed that S. japonicum human, bovine and snail infections were clustered in 23, 15, 4 townships from Dali City, Weishan County, Eryuan County, Nanjian County and Heqing County, respectively, with relative risks of 6.25 to 28.75 (P < 0.01), which was almost consistent with the cluster areas detected by hotspots analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The endemic situation of schistosomiasis significantly reduced in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2015; however, there is still a risk of schistosomiasis transmission. The monitoring and control of schistosomiasis should be intensified in the future in Yunnan Province.


Assuntos
Esquistossomose Japônica , Esquistossomose , Animais , Bovinos , China , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Esquistossomose/epidemiologia , Esquistossomose/prevenção & controle , Esquistossomose/transmissão , Caramujos , Análise Espaço-Temporal
12.
Rev Bras Epidemiol ; 22: e190047, 2019 Aug 22.
Artigo em Português, Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31460663

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Tocantins is the most hyperendemic state for leprosy in Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiological characteristics and temporal trends of leprosy indicators in children under 15 years old in Tocantins between the years of 2001 and 2012. METHODOLOGY: Data analysis of the Notification of Injury Information System (SINAN). New cases under the age of 15 have been included in the state. The indicators were calculated and the temporal trends were analyzed through the join-point regression. RESULTS: There were 1,225 cases in children, mean age of 10.8 years, and male predominated (52%). The mode of detection by spontaneous demand prevailed (55.8%) and more than 9% had some physical disability. Detection in < 15 years was significantly increased between 2001 and 2008 (anual percent change - APC = 3.8%; confidence interval of 95% - 95%CI 0.1 - 7.6), and showed significant decline between 2008 and 2012 (APC = -9.4%; 95%CI -17.2 - -0.8). There was stability for the detection of grade 2 cases (APC = 4.2%; 95%CI -6.7 - 16.3), proportion of grade 2 cases (APC = 4.1%; 95%CI 6.7 - 16.3), proportion of grade 1 cases (APC = 1.3%; 95%CI -6.2 - 9.3), multibacillary ratio (APC = 2.9%; 95%CI -1.7 - 7.7), and proportion of paucibacillary (APC = 2.9%; 95%CI -1.7 - 7.7). CONCLUSION: Leprosy remains an important public health problem in Tocantins, with active transmission and persistence of transmission foci. The stability of the indicators points out the permanence of the late diagnosis and the repressed demands.


Assuntos
Hanseníase/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Distribuição por Idade , Brasil/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Análise de Regressão , Distribuição por Sexo , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Fatores de Tempo
13.
Rev Lat Am Enfermagem ; 27: e3160, 2019 Aug 19.
Artigo em Português, Inglês, Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31432916

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the trend and spatial distribution of some diseases that require compulsory notification in pregnant women. METHOD: ecological study, with data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, of the incidence of the six most frequent diseases that, require compulsory notification, in pregnant women. The Prais-Winsten model was used to analyze the trend classified as stable, decreasing and increasing, according to macro-regions. For the spatial analysis, the incidences distributed in percentiles, in choropleth maps, by Health Regions were calculated. RESULTS: the most frequent infections were syphilis, dengue, Human Immunodeficiency Virus, influenza, hepatitis and toxoplasmosis. Incidence increased by 30.8%, 30.4%, 15.4% and 2.6%, on average, for syphilis, toxoplasmosis, dengue and Human Immunodeficiency Virus, respectively. On average, the incidence of syphilis increased by 40.5% in Macro-regional North and 38% in Macro-regional Northwest. The spatial analysis showed, in the last four years, high incidence of dengue, syphilis and infection by Human Immunodeficiency Virus, which reached 180.2, 141.7 and 100.8 cases per 10,000 live births, respectively. CONCLUSION: there were increased incidences of infection in pregnant women due to syphilis, toxoplasmosis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus, with differences in their spatial distribution, indicating that these diseases should be a priority in the care of pregnant women in more affected regions.


Assuntos
Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/epidemiologia , Brasil/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Notificação de Doenças , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Hepatite/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Gravidez , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Sífilis/epidemiologia , Fatores de Tempo , Toxoplasmose/epidemiologia
14.
J Environ Manage ; 248: 109308, 2019 Oct 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31466179

RESUMO

This study aims to characterize at landscape level the spatio-temporal dynamics of a massive oak decline that is occurring in dehesas ecosystems. We are looking at possibilities of matching with Phytophthora disease behavior, a harmful disease detected in the studied area, in order to interpret its implications within the context of the disease management. Spatial locations of affected trees from 2001, 2009 and 2016 identified through photointerpretation were analyzed with the inhomogeneous Ripley's K-function to assess their spatial pattern. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), a non-parametric data mining method, was used to investigate the influence of a range of landscape descriptors of different nature on the proneness to oak decline, using the location of affected trees in comparison with that of healthy spots (points randomly extracted from areas covered by healthy trees). Affected trees showed a strong clustering pattern that decreased over time. The reported spatial patterns align with the hypothesis of Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands. being the main cause of oak decline in Mediterranean forests. Location of affected trees detected in different years was found to be spatially related, suggesting the implication of a contagion process. MARS models from 2001, 2009 and 2016 reported Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.707, 0.671 and 0.651, respectively. Slope was the most influential landscape descriptor across the three years, with distance to afforestations being the second for 2001 and 2009. Landscape descriptors linked to human factors and soil water content seem to influence oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi at landscape level. Afforestations carried out as part of the afforestation subsidy program promoted by the European Commission in 1992 could have acted as an initial source of Phytophthora cinnamomi infection. These findings together with the consideration of the spatial and temporal scale of the spreading are essential when planning the management of oak decline in open woodlands.


Assuntos
Quercus , Ecossistema , Florestas , Espanha , Análise Espaço-Temporal
15.
Ecotoxicol Environ Saf ; 182: 109387, 2019 Oct 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31302332

RESUMO

A spatiotemporal analysis of benzene was performed in east of the USA and in a representative station in Baltimore County, in order to assess its trend over a 25-year time span between 1993 and 2018. A novel time series analysis technique known as TBATS (an ensemble of Trigonometric seasonal models, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA error plus Trend and Seasonal components) was applied for the first time on an air contaminant. The results demonstrated an annual seasonality and a continuously declining trend in this respect. The success of Reformulated Gasoline Program (RFG), initiated in 1995, was obviously detected in time series data since the daily benzene concentrations reduced to one-sixth of its original level in 1995. In this regard, the respective values of mean absolute scaled error (MASE) were 0.35 and 0.45 for training and test series. Given the observed concentrations of benzene, the hot spot areas in east of the US were identified by spatial analysis, as well. A chronic cancer risk was followed along the study area, by both a deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques. It was indicated that children are at higher risk than that of adults. The range of estimated risk values for PRA was higher and varied between 6.45 × 10-6 and 1.68 × 10-4 for adults and between 8.13 × 10-6 and 8.29 × 10-4 for children. According to the findings of PRA, and referring to the threshold level of 1 × 10-4, only 1.2% of the adults and 28.77% of the children were categorized in an immediate risk group.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , Benzeno/análise , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Gasolina/análise , Humanos , Masculino , Mid-Atlantic Region/epidemiologia , Probabilidade , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Sudeste dos Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Análise Espaço-Temporal
16.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 2970, 2019 07 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31278320

RESUMO

The reported progressive change of vegetation activity along elevational gradients has important aesthetic and conservation values. With climate change, cooler locations are suggested to warm faster than warmer ones, raising concerns of a more homogenized landscape along the elevation. Here, we use global satellite data to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of the elevational gradient (EG) in vegetation greenness (NDVImax3), spring (SOS) and autumn phenology (EOS) during 1982-2015. Although we find clear geographical patterns of the EG in NDVImax3 and SOS, there are no prevalent trends of vegetation homogenization or phenology synchronization along elevational gradients. Possible mechanisms, including spatially heterogeneous temperature lapse rate changes, different vegetation sensitivities to climate change, and human disturbances, may play diverse roles across different regions. Our finding of mixed EG trends and no general rules controlling EG dynamics poses challenges for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate change on mountainous biological diversity and ecosystem services.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Desenvolvimento Vegetal , Dispersão Vegetal , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Mudança Climática , Imagens de Satélites , Estações do Ano , Temperatura Ambiente
17.
BMC Public Health ; 19(1): 873, 2019 Jul 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31272437

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. It is a disease known worldwide for its vulnerability factors, magnitude and mortality. The objective of the study was to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of TB in the area of social inequality in northeast Brazil between the years 2001 and 2016. METHODS: An ecological time series study with the use of spatial analysis techniques was carried out from 2001 to 2016. The units of analysis were the 75 municipalities in the state of Sergipe. Data from the Notification of Injury Information System were used. For the construction of the maps, the cartographic base of the state of Sergipe, obtained at the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, was used. Georeferenced data were analysed using TerraView 4.2.2 software (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) and QGis 2.18.2 (Open Source Geospatial Foundation). Spatial analyses included the empirical Bayesian model and the global and local Moran indices. The time trend analyses were performed by the software Joinpoint Regression, Version 4.5.0.1, with the variables of sex, age, cure and abandonment. RESULTS: There was an increasing trend of tuberculosis cases in patients under 20 years old and 20-39 years old, especially in males. Cured cases showed a decreasing trend, and cases of treatment withdrawal were stationary. A spatial dependence was observed in almost all analysed territories but with different concentrations. Significant spatial correlations with the formation of clusters in the southeast and northeast of the state were observed. The probability of illness among municipalities was determined not to occur in a random way. CONCLUSION: The identification of risk areas and priority groups can help health planning by refining the focus of attention to tuberculosis control. Understanding the epidemiological, spatial and temporal dynamics of tuberculosis can allow for improved targeting of strategies for disease prevention and control.


Assuntos
Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Teorema de Bayes , Brasil/epidemiologia , Cidades , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , Adulto Jovem
18.
BMC Public Health ; 19(1): 937, 2019 Jul 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31296198

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Various neglected tropical diseases show spatially changing seasonality at small areas. This phenomenon has received little scientific attention so far. Our study contributes to advancing the understanding of its drivers. This study focuses on the effects of the seasonality of increasing social contacts on the incidence proportions at multiple district level of the childhood hand-foot-mouth disease in Da Nang city, Viet Nam from 2012 to 2016. METHODS: We decomposed the nonstationary time series of the incidence proportions for the nine spatial-temporal (S-T) strata in the study area, where S indicates the spatial and T the temporal stratum. The long-term trends and the seasonality are presented by the Fourier series. To study the effects of the monthly average ambient temperature and the period of preschooling, we developed a spatial-temporal autoregressive model. RESULTS: Seasonality of childhood hand-foot-mouth disease incidence proportions shows two peaks in all spatial strata annually: large peaks synchronously in April and small ones asynchronously during the preschooling period. The peaks of the average temperature are asynchronous with the seasonal peaks of the childhood hand-foot-mouth disease incidence proportions in the period between January and May, with the negative values of the regression coefficients for all spatial strata, respectively: [Formula: see text]. The increasingly cumulative preschooling period and the seasonal component of the incidence proportions are negatively correlated in the period between August and December, with the negative values of the regression coefficients for all temporal strata, respectively: [Formula: see text]. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that social contact amongst children under five years of age is the important driving factor of the dynamics of the childhood hand-foot-mouth disease outbreaks in the study area. The preschooling season when children's contact with each other increases stimulates the geographical variation of the seasonality of childhood hand-foot-mouth disease infections at small areas in the study area.


Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Doença de Mão, Pé e Boca/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , Pré-Escolar , Cidades , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Masculino , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Vietnã/epidemiologia
19.
Rev Assoc Med Bras (1992) ; 65(6): 880-885, 2019 Jul 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31340320

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the temporal trend and factors associated with adolescent pregnancy during ten years in Brasil. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Live Births Information System, of the Brazilian Health System and included information regarding live births from adolescent mothers from 2006 to 2015. The overall proportion of gestation in adolescence and the specific proportions according to the characteristics analyzed were calculated using the standardized reporting coefficients and the simple linear regression method. The study was approved by the ethics committee of the University of Southern Santa Catarina (UNISUL). RESULTS: The general proportion of Live Births from adolescent mothers varied from 21.4% in 2006 to 18.1% in 2015. This reduction occurred because of the negative variation observed among mothers aged 15 to 19 years. The indigenous group was the only that did not present a reduction. There was an increase in the proportion of adolescents with between four and seven years of formal education and in the proportion of adolescents living with partners. There was a reduction in all Brazilian Regions and in large part of the Federation Units. CONCLUSION: The analysis of the temporal trend identifies a reduction in the proportion of live births among adolescent mothers in Brasil. However, there is a growing trend among some specific groups.


Assuntos
Gravidez na Adolescência/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Distribuição por Idade , Brasil/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Nascimento Vivo/epidemiologia , Idade Materna , Gravidez , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Fatores de Tempo
20.
BMC Infect Dis ; 19(1): 615, 2019 Jul 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31299911

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: China contributed 8.9% of all incident cases of tuberculosis globally in 2017, and understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in major transmission foci in the country is critical to ongoing efforts to improve population health. METHODS: We estimated annual PTB notification rates and their spatiotemporal distributions in Sichuan province, a major center of ongoing transmission, from 2005 to 2017. Time series decomposition was used to obtain trend components from the monthly incidence rate time series. Spatiotemporal cluster analyses were conducted to detect spatiotemporal clusters of PTB at the county level. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2017, 976,873 cases of active PTB and 388,739 cases of smear-positive PTB were reported in Sichuan Province, China. During this period, the overall reported incidence rate of active PTB decreased steadily at a rate of decrease (3.77 cases per 100,000 per year, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.28-4.31) that was slightly faster than the national average rate of decrease (3.14 cases per 100,000 per year, 95% CI: 2.61-3.67). Although reported PTB incidence decreased significantly in most regions of the province, incidence was observed to be increasing in some counties with high HIV incidence and ethnic minority populations. Active and smear-positive PTB case reports exhibited seasonality, peaking in March and April, with apparent links to social dynamics and climatological factors. CONCLUSIONS: While PTB incidence rates decreased strikingly in the study area over the past decade, improvements have not been equally distributed. Additional surveillance and control efforts should be guided by the seasonal-trend and spatiotemporal cluster analyses presented here, focusing on areas with increasing incidence rates, and updated to reflect the latest information from real-time reporting.


Assuntos
Tuberculose Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , China/epidemiologia , Análise por Conglomerados , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estações do Ano , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Tuberculose Pulmonar/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Pulmonar/transmissão , Adulto Jovem
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