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12.
Biol Direct ; 14(1): 14, 2019 08 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31429783

RESUMO

There is growing agreement that the aim of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, is not likely to be met without inclusion of methods to physically remove atmospheric carbon. A number of approaches have been suggested, but the community appears to be silent on the potential of one of the most revolutionary technologies of the current century, systems and synthetic biology (SSB). The potential of SSB to modulate the fast carbon cycle, and thereby mitigate climate change is in itself enormous, but if the history of genomics is any measure, it is also reasonable to expect sizeable economic returns on any investment. More generally, the approach to climate control has been badly unbalanced. The last three decades have seen intense international attention to emission control, with no parallel plan to test, scale and implement carbon removal technologies, including attention to their economic, legal and ethical implications. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Richard Roberts, Aristides Patrinos, and Eugene Koonin, all of whom were nominated by Itai Yanai. For the full reviews, please go to the Reviewers' comments section.


Assuntos
Poluição do Ar/prevenção & controle , Mudança Climática , Biologia Sintética/métodos , Carbono/análise , Aquecimento Global/prevenção & controle
16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31349658

RESUMO

National committed greenhouse gas emission reduction actions are the center of the Paris Agreement, and are known as 'Intended Nationally Determined Contributions' (INDC) that aim to slow down global warming. The climate response to INDC emission reduction is a focus in climate change science. In this study, data from 32 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in Central Asia (CA) under the INDC scenario above the present-day level. The results show that the magnitude of warming in CA is remarkably higher than the global mean. Almost all the regions in CA will experience more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme high-temperature events. In comparison with the INDC scenario, the reduced warming of the 2.0 °C/1.5 °C target scenarios will help avoid approximately 44-61%/65-80% of the increase in extreme temperature events in terms of the intensity, frequency, and duration in CA. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the benefits of limiting global warming to the 2.0 °C/1.5 °C targets, which is paramount for mitigation and adaptation planning.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/estatística & dados numéricos , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Aquecimento Global/prevenção & controle , Aquecimento Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Efeito Estufa/prevenção & controle , Temperatura Alta , Ásia , Efeito Estufa/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Teóricos
17.
Nature ; 571(7765): 335-342, 2019 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31316194

RESUMO

Research reported during the past decade has shown that global warming is roughly proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This makes it possible to estimate the remaining carbon budget: the total amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while holding the global average temperature increase to the limit set by the Paris Agreement. However, a wide range of estimates for the remaining carbon budget has been reported, reducing the effectiveness of the remaining carbon budget as a means of setting emission reduction targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Here we present a framework that enables us to track estimates of the remaining carbon budget and to understand how these estimates can improve over time as scientific knowledge advances. We propose that application of this framework may help to reconcile differences between estimates of the remaining carbon budget and may provide a basis for reducing uncertainty in the range of future estimates.


Assuntos
Atmosfera/química , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Aquecimento Global/prevenção & controle , Aquecimento Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Metas , Modelos Teóricos , Temperatura Ambiente , Política Ambiental/legislação & jurisprudência , Retroalimentação , Aquecimento Global/legislação & jurisprudência , Atividades Humanas/legislação & jurisprudência , Cooperação Internacional/legislação & jurisprudência , Paris , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Fatores de Tempo , Incerteza
20.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 15(6): e1007000, 2019 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31170149

RESUMO

Geophysical models of climate change are becoming increasingly sophisticated, yet less effort is devoted to modelling the human systems causing climate change and how the two systems are coupled. Here, we develop a simple socio-climate model by coupling an Earth system model to a social dynamics model. We treat social processes endogenously-emerging from rules governing how individuals learn socially and how social norms develop-as well as being influenced by climate change and mitigation costs. Our goal is to gain qualitative insights into scenarios of potential socio-climate dynamics and to illustrate how such models can generate new research questions. We find that the social learning rate is strongly influential, to the point that variation of its value within empirically plausible ranges changes the peak global temperature anomaly by more than 1°C. Conversely, social norms reinforce majority behaviour and therefore may not provide help when we most need it because they suppress the early spread of mitigative behaviour. Finally, exploring the model's parameter space for mitigation cost and social learning suggests optimal intervention pathways for climate change mitigation. We find that prioritising an increase in social learning as a first step, followed by a reduction in mitigation costs provides the most efficient route to a reduced peak temperature anomaly. We conclude that socio-climate models should be included in the ensemble of models used to project climate change.


Assuntos
Conservação de Recursos Energéticos , Aquecimento Global/prevenção & controle , Modelos Teóricos , Mudança Social , Mudança Climática , Biologia Computacional , Humanos
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