The firearm pandemic: time to act and flatten the curve.

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A 16-Year-Old Ukrainian Boy Shot at Close-Range to the Back of the Neck with a Handgun Who Required Surgical Removal of a 9×18-mm Bullet Shell from the Left Posterior Maxilla and Recovered Following Physical Therapy.

BACKGROUND The conflict in Ukraine during the past year has resulted in increased deaths and injuries to soldiers and civilians from military weapons and large and small caliber firearms. Unlike clinicians in some Western countries, until recently, clinicians working in Ukraine hospitals had little experience managing patients with gunshot wounds. CASE REPORT A 16-year-old boy was admitted as an emergency following a gunshot wound to the back of the neck from a Makarov pistol. The gun was reported to have been fired at a distance of more than 15 cm. Imaging showed the 9-mm bullet hit the cervical spine, causing nerve root involvement at C4 to C7, traveled upwards, and lodged in the left posterior maxilla. On examination, the patient had facial asymmetry and paralysis of the left shoulder, arm, hand, and wrist and was in pain and shock. Intubation and emergency surgery were performed, with the removal of a 9×18-mm bullet shell from the pterygopalatine fossa, deep to the infratemporal fossa, and posterior to the maxilla. The patient underwent postoperative physical therapy and continues to improve his physical function. CONCLUSIONS This report has shown the importance of immediate evaluation of gunshot wounds so that surgery can be planned and performed rapidly, with a view to postoperative recovery and active physical therapy.

Development of a Machine Learning Model to Estimate US Firearm Homicides in Near Real Time.

Importance: Firearm homicides are a major public health concern; lack of timely mortality data presents considerable challenges to effective response. Near real-time data sources offer potential for more timely estimation of firearm homicides. Objective: To estimate near real-time burden of weekly and annual firearm homicides in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prognostic study, anonymous, longitudinal time series data were obtained from multiple data sources, including Google and YouTube search trends related to firearms (2014-2019), emergency department visits for firearm injuries (National Syndromic Surveillance Program, 2014-2019), emergency medical service activations for firearm-related injuries (biospatial, 2014-2019), and National Domestic Violence Hotline contacts flagged with the keyword firearm (2016-2019). Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to September 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Weekly estimates of US firearm homicides were calculated using a 2-phase pipeline, first fitting optimal machine learning models for each data stream and then combining the best individual models into a stacked ensemble model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing predictions of firearm homicides in 2019 to actual firearm homicides identified by National Vital Statistics System death certificates. Results were also compared with a SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model, a common method to forecast injury mortality. Results: Both individual and ensemble models yielded highly accurate estimates of firearm homicides. Individual models' mean error for weekly estimates of firearm homicides (root mean square error) varied from 24.95 for emergency department visits to 31.29 for SARIMA forecasting. Ensemble models combining data sources had lower weekly mean error and higher annual accuracy than individual data sources: the all-source ensemble model had a weekly root mean square error of 24.46 deaths and full-year accuracy of 99.74%, predicting the total number of firearm homicides in 2019 within 38 deaths for the entire year (compared with 95.48% accuracy and 652 deaths for the SARIMA model). The model decreased the time lag of reporting weekly firearm homicides from 7 to 8 months to approximately 6 weeks. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of diverse secondary data on machine learning, ensemble modeling produced accurate near real-time estimates of weekly and annual firearm homicides and substantially decreased data source time lags. Ensemble model forecasts can accelerate public health practitioners' and policy makers' ability to respond to unanticipated shifts in firearm homicides.

Determining who healthcare providers screen for firearm access in the United States.

Healthcare providers are well positioned to screen for firearm access to reduce risk of suicides, yet there is a limited understanding of how often and for whom firearm access screening occurs. The present study examined the extent to which providers screen for firearm access and sought to identify who has been screened in the past. The representative sample included 3510 residents from five US states who reported whether they have been asked about their access to firearms by a healthcare provider. The findings demonstrate that most participants have never been asked by a provider about firearm access. People who have been asked were more likely to be White, male, and firearm owners. Those with children under 17 years old in the home, that have been in mental health treatment, and report a history of suicidal ideation were more likely to be screened for firearm access. Although there are interventions for mitigating firearm related risks in healthcare settings, many providers may be missing the opportunity to implement these because they do not ask about firearm access.

Youth Firearm Injury: A Review for Pediatric Critical Care Clinicians.

Firearms are now the leading cause of death among youth in the United States, with rates of homicide and suicide rising even more steeply during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. These injuries and deaths have wide-ranging consequences for the physical and emotional health of youth and families. While pediatric critical care clinicians must treat the injured survivors, they can also play a role in prevention by understanding the risks and consequences of firearm injuries; taking a trauma-informed approach to the care of injured youth; counseling patients and families on firearm access; and advocating for youth safety policy and programming.

Assessment of Firearm Storage Practices in the US, 2022.

Importance: Secure firearm storage may help reduce firearm injury and death. Broad implementation requires more granular assessments of firearm storage practices and greater clarity on circumstances that may prevent or promote the use of locking devices. Objective: To develop a more thorough understanding of firearm storage practices, obstacles to using locking devices, and circumstances in which firearm owners would consider locking unsecured firearms. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional, nationally representative survey of adults residing in 5 US states who owned firearms was administered online between July 28 and August 8, 2022. Participants were recruited via probability-based sampling. Main Outcomes and Measures: Firearm storage practices were assessed via a matrix provided to participants in which firearm-locking devices were described both via text and images. Locking mechanisms (key/personal identification number [PIN]/dial vs biometric) were specified for each type of device. Obstacles to the use of locking devices and circumstances in which firearm owners would consider locking unsecured firearms were assessed via self-report items developed by the study team. Results: The final weighted sample included 2152 adult (aged ≥18 years), English-speaking firearm owners residing in the US; the sample was predominantly male (66.7%). Among the 2152 firearm owners, 58.3% (95% CI, 55.9%-60.6%) reported storing at least 1 firearm unlocked and hidden, with 17.9% (95% CI, 16.2%-19.8%) reporting storing at least 1 firearm unlocked and unhidden. Gun safes were the most frequently used device both among participants who use keyed/PIN/dial locking mechanisms (32.4%; 95% CI, 30.2%-34.7%) and those who use biometric locking mechanisms (15.6%; 95% CI, 13.9%-17.5%). Those who do not store firearms locked most frequently noted a belief that locks are unnecessary (49.3%; 95% CI, 45.5%-53.1%) and a fear that locks would prevent quick access in an emergency (44.8%; 95% CI, 41.1%-48.7%) as obstacles to lock usage. Preventing access by children was the most often reported circumstance in which firearm owners would consider locking unsecured firearms (48.5%; 95% CI, 45.6%-51.4%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this survey study of 2152 firearm owners, consistent with prior research, unsecure firearm storage was common. Firearm owners appeared to prefer gun safes relative to cable locks and trigger locks, indicating that locking device distribution programs may not match firearm owners' preferences. Broad implementation of secure firearm storage may require addressing disproportionate fears of home intruders and increasing awareness of the risks associated with household firearm access. Furthermore, implementation efforts may hinge on broader awareness of the risks of ready firearm access beyond unauthorized access by children.

Hand injuries with mole gun: A hidden danger.

BACKGROUND: Mole guns are handmade destructive tools used in the fight against harmful rodents in agricultural areas. Acciden-tal triggering of these tools at the wrong time can result in major hand injuries that impair hand functionality and cause permanent hand disability. This study aims to draw attention to the fact that mole gun injuries cause severe loss of hand functionality and that these tools should be considered within the scope of firearms. METHODS: Our study is a retrospective, observational cohort study. The demographic characteristics of the patients, the clinical features of the injury, and the surgical methods applied were recorded. The severity of the hand injury was assessed by the Modified Hand Injury Severity Score. The Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder, and Hand Questionnaire was used to evaluate the upper extremity-re-lated disability of the patient. The patients' hand grip strength and palmar and lateral pinch strengths, and functional disability scores were compared with healthy controls. RESULTS: Twenty-two patients with mole gun hand injuries were included in the study. The mean age of the patients was 63.0±16.9 (22-86), and all but one were male. Dominant hand injury was found in more than half of the patients (63.6%). More than half of the patients had major hand injuries (59.1%). The functional disability scores of the patients were significantly higher than the controls, and the grip strengths and palmar pinch strengths were significantly lower. CONCLUSION: Even after years from the injury, our patients had hand disabilities, and their hand strengths were lower than that of the controls. Public awareness should be raised on this issue, and mole guns should be prohibited and considered in the scope of firearms.

Can computed tomography replace or supplement autopsy?

Postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) has been integrated into the practice of many forensic pathologists. To evaluate the utility of PMCT in supplementing and/or supplanting medicolegal autopsy, we conducted a prospective double-blind comparison of abnormal findings reported by the autopsy pathologist with those reported by a radiologist reviewing the PMCT. We reviewed 890 cases: 167 with blunt force injury (BFI), 63 with pediatric trauma (under 5 years), 203 firearm injuries, and 457 drug poisoning deaths. Autopsy and radiology reports were coded using the Abbreviated Injury Scale and abnormal findings and cause of death (COD) were compared for congruence in consensus conferences with novel pathologists and radiologists. Overall sensitivity for recognizing abnormal findings was 71% for PMCT and 74.6% for autopsy. Sensitivities for PMCT/autopsy were 74%/73.1% for BFI, 61.5%/71.4% for pediatric trauma, 84.9%/83.7% for firearm injuries, and 56.5%/66.4% for drug poisoning deaths. COD assigned by reviewing PMCT/autopsy was correct in 88%/95.8% of BFI cases, 99%/99.5% of firearm fatalities, 82.5%/98.5% of pediatric trauma deaths, and 84%/100% of drug poisoning deaths of individuals younger than 50. Both autopsy and PMCT were imperfect in recognizing injuries. However, both methods identified the most important findings and are sufficient to establish COD in cases of BFI, pediatric trauma, firearm injuries and drug poisoning in individuals younger than 50. Ideally, all forensic pathologists would have access to a CT scanner and a consulting radiologist. This would allow a flexible approach that meets the diagnostic needs of each case and best serves decedents' families and other stakeholders.

Treatment of Gustilo-Anderson type III open fractures with segmental long bone loss secondary to gunshot and war injuries in paediatric patients with bone segment transport by the limb reconstruction system (LRS).

OBJECTIVE: The information on firearm- or explosive-related extremity injuries in children is very limited. Reports of segmental bone loss due to these types of fractures are even rarer and the treatment remains a problem. There has been no report of distraction osteogenesis with limb reconstruction system (LRS) specifically in children. We evaluated the treatment results of Gustilo-Anderson type 3 open fractures with segmental bone loss due to firearm injuries by distraction osteogenesis performed with LRS in skeletally immature patients. METHODS: Nine patients with Gustilo-Anderson (GA) type 3 open fractures with segmental bone loss due to firearm injuries who had not completed their skeletal development were included. Two of the patients had GA type 3a, four had type 3b, and the remaining three had type 3c. Bony and functional assessment was conducted using Association for the Study and Application of the Methods of Illizarov (ASAMI) criteria. RESULTS: Mean follow-up period was 20.1 months (range 5.5-35 months). The mean bone loss was 45.5 mm (range 15-80 mm) before the treatment started. The mean time of external fixation (day) was 180.6. The mean distraction index (distraction period per cm) was 11.3 day/cm. The mean time for bone union index (duration of bony union per cm) was 33.7 days/cm. Bony union was achieved in all patients at the end of the treatment. Bony results as per ASAMI score were excellent in seven fractures and good in three. Functional results were excellent in five patients, good in two, and fair in two. We had no fair or poor results with respect to bony results but had two fair functional results. CONCLUSIONS: LRS provides a good treatment choice for children with fractures with segmental bone loss due to firearm injuries. It also provides easy access to the wound with its monolateral construction.

Mass homicide by firearm in Canada: Effects of legislation.

Canada implemented a series of laws regulating firearms including background checks and licensing, references, psychological questionnaires, prohibition of paramilitary style rifles, and magazine capacity restrictions in order to decrease the incidences and deaths from mass shootings. The associated effects of these laws were examined over the years 1974 to 2020. A model was constructed using difference-in-differences analysis of firearms and non-firearms mass homicide incidences and death rates. Mass homicides were defined as a homicide due to one event involving three or more deaths. Incidence rates of mass homicide by firearm were found to be 0.11 (95%CI 0.08, 0.14) per million compared to a non-firearm mass homicide rate of 0.12 (95% CI 0.10, 0.15) per million. Mass homicide death rates by firearm were found to be 0.39 (95% CI 0.29, 0.49) per million compared to a non-firearm mass homicide rate of 0.47 (95% CI 0.34, 0.61) per million. Overall, there is a gradual declining trend in the incidence of mass homicide by firearm (IRR 0.97 (95% CI 0.96, 0.98)) and by non-firearm (IRR 0.97 (95% CI 0.97, 0.98)). The decline in mass homicide death rate by firearm and non-firearm is IRR 0.96 (95% CI 0.95, 0.97), and IRR 0.97 (95% CI 0.96, 0.98) respectively. No specific associated decrease in mass homicide incidence rates or death rates with firearms legislation was found after the implementation of background checks and prohibition of full auto firearms in 1980, by the implementation of references and psychological questionnaires in 1994, by the restriction of magazine capacity in 1994, the prohibition of paramilitary rifles in 1994, or licensing in 2001.

Openness to church-based firearm safety interventions among Protestant Christian firearm owners.

OBJECTIVES: Protestant Christians are more likely to own firearms and not store them locked/unloaded compared to those from other religions. This study examines how Protestant Christians view the relationship between their religious and firearm beliefs and how that informs openness to church-based firearm safety interventions. STUDY DESIGN: Grounded theory analysis of 17 semi-structured interviews with Protestant Christians. METHODS: Interviews, conducted August-October 2020, focused on firearms owned, carrying/discharge/storage behaviors, Christian belief compatibility with firearm ownership, and openness to church-based firearm safety interventions. Audio-recorded interviews were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using grounded theory techniques. RESULTS: Participant perspectives varied on firearm ownership motivations and compatibility of Christian values with firearm ownership. Variation in these themes and in openness to church-based firearm safety interventions resulted in clustering of participants into three groups. Group 1 owned firearms for collecting/sporting purposes and intricately connected their Christian identity with firearm ownership, but they were not open to intervention due to perceived high firearm proficiency. Group 2 did not connect their Christian identity to their firearm ownership; some believed these identities were incompatible, so were also not open to intervention. Group 3 owned firearms for protection and believed church, as a community hub, was an excellent location for firearm safety interventions. CONCLUSIONS: The clustering of participants into groups varying in openness to church-based firearm safety interventions suggests it is feasible to identify Protestant Christian firearm owners open to intervention. This study presents a first step in coupling firearm owner characteristics with community-based, tailored interventions with promise for efficacy.

Rural-Urban Variation in the Association of Adolescent Violence and Handgun Carrying in the United States, 2002-2019.

Importance: Adolescent handgun carrying is associated with increased risk of firearm-related violence. Most evidence on adolescent handgun carrying is from urban areas, but these findings may not generalize to rural areas. Objective: To examine differences in associations of adolescent interpersonal violence with handgun carrying across the rural-urban continuum. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used nationally representative data from the US National Survey on Drug Use and Health among adolescents aged 12 to 17 years from 2002 to 2019 to estimate time-varying prevalence ratios (PRs) and prevalence differences (PDs) between interpersonal violence and handgun carrying across the rural-urban continuum. Analyses were conducted in April to July 2022. Exposures: Any past-year serious fighting, group fighting, and attacking with intent to harm. Main Outcomes and Measures: Any past-year handgun carrying. Associations were estimated within county rural-urban strata using the US Department of Agriculture's Rural-Urban Continuum Codes. Results: In each year, the sample included a weighted count of almost 25 million adolescents, with 50.9% (95% CI, 50.2%-51.6%) males and 24.7% (95% CI, 23.8%-25.6%) Hispanic adolescents, 13.5% (95% CI, 12.8%-14.2%) non-Hispanic Black adolescents, and 51.8% (95% CI, 50.8%-52.8%) non-Hispanic White adolescents in 2019. More rural counties had less racial and ethnic diversity. For example, 81.1% (95% CI, 75.9%-85.4%) of adolescents were non-Hispanic White in the most rural counties vs 43.1% (95% CI, 41.7%-44.6%) of adolescents were non-Hispanic White in the most urban counties in 2019. Adolescent handgun carrying increased over time, with the largest increases in the most rural counties, where the prevalence of adolescent handgun carrying increased from 5.2% (95% CI, 3.8%-7.0%) in 2003 to 12.4% (95% CI, 8.9%-16.9%) in 2019. PRs for the association of violence and handgun carrying were greater in more urban counties. For example, in the most urban counties in 2019, adolescents involved in a group fight had 3.7 (95% CI, 2.9-4.8) times the prevalence of handgun carrying vs those not involved in a group fight; this PR was 3.1 (95% CI, 1.6-5.6) in the most rural counties. PDs were similar and, in some cases, larger in rural areas. For example, in the most urban counties in 2019, handgun carrying prevalence was 7.5% (95% CI, 5.7%-9.5%) higher among adolescents who were involved in a group fight compared with those who were not; this PD was 21.8% (95% CI, 8.2%-37.8%) in the most rural counties, where handgun carrying was more common. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that associations of interpersonal violence with handgun carrying were stronger in relative terms in urban areas than in rural areas; however, a higher percentage of rural than urban adolescents carried handguns, resulting in a greater absolute prevalence of handgun carrying associated with violence in rural areas than in urban areas. These findings suggest opportunities for preventing handgun carrying-related harms may differ between rural and urban communities.

The Use of Crisis Services Following the Mass School Shooting in Uvalde, Texas: Quasi-Experimental Event Study.

BACKGROUND: Mass shootings result in widespread psychological trauma for survivors and members of the affected community. However, less is known about the broader effects of indirect exposure (eg, media) to mass shootings. Crisis lines offer a unique opportunity to examine real-time data on the widespread psychological effects of mass shootings. OBJECTIVE: Crisis Text Line is a not-for-profit company that provides 24/7 confidential SMS text message-based mental health support and crisis intervention service. This study examines changes in the volume and composition of firearm-related conversations at Crisis Text Line before and after the mass school shooting at Robb Elementary School on May 24, 2022, in Uvalde, Texas. METHODS: A quasi-experimental event study design was used to compare the actual volume of firearm-related conversations received by Crisis Text Line post shooting to forecasted firearm conversation volume under the counterfactual scenario that a shooting had not occurred. Conversations related to firearms were identified among all conversations using keyword searches. Firearm conversation volume was predicted using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model trained on the 3 months of data leading up to the shooting. Additionally, proportions of issue tags (topics coded post conversation by volunteer crisis counselors at Crisis Text Line after the exchange) were compared in the 4 days before (n=251) and after (n=417) the shooting to assess changes in conversation characteristics. The 4-day window was chosen to reflect the number of days conversation volume remained above forecasted levels. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in the number of conversations mentioning firearms following the shooting, with the largest spike (compared to forecasted numbers) occurring the day after the shooting (n=159) on May 25, 2022. By May 28, the volume reverted to within the 95% CI of the forecasted volume (n=77). Within firearm conversations, "grief" issue tags showed a significant increase in proportion in the week following the shooting, while "isolation/loneliness," "relationships," and "suicide" issue tags showed a significant decrease in proportions the week following the shooting. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that the Uvalde school shooting may have contributed to an increase in demand for crisis services, above what would be expected given historical trends. Additionally, we found that these firearm-related crises conversations immediately post event are more likely to be related to grief and less likely to be related to suicide, loneliness, and relationships. Our findings provide some of the first data showing the real-time repercussions for the broader population exposed to school shooting events. This work adds to a growing evidence base documenting and measuring the rippling effects of mass shootings outside of those directly impacted.