Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil / Previsão da incidência da leishmaniose visceral usando o modelo de média móvel integrado autorregressivo sazonal (SARIMA) no Maranhão, Brasil

Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

Resumo A leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença de natureza infecciosa, predominante em países de zonas tropicais. A predição de ocorrência de doenças infecciosas através da modelagem epidemiológica tem se revelado uma importante ferramenta no entendimento de sua dinâmica de ocorrência. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um modelo de previsão da incidência da LV no Maranhão usando o modelo de Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal (SARIMA). Foram coletados os dados mensais de casos de LV através do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) correspondentes ao período de 2001 a 2018. O método de Box-Jenkins foi aplicado para ajustar um modelo de predição SARIMA para incidência geral e por sexo (masculino e feminino) de LV para o período de janeiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2023. Durante o período de 216 meses dessa série temporal, foram registrados 10.431 casos de LV no Maranhão, com uma média de 579 casos por ano. Em relação à faixa etária, houve maior registro no público pediátrico (0 a 14 anos). Houve predominância do sexo masculino, com 6437 casos (61,71%). Os valores do teste de Box-Pierce para incidência geral, sexo masculino e feminino reforçados pelos resultados do teste Ljung-Box sugerem que as autocorrelações de resíduos apresentam um comportamento de ruído branco. Para incidência mensal geral e por sexo masculino e feminino, os modelos SARIMA (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) e (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) foram os que mais se ajustaram aos dados, respectivamente. O modelo SARIMA se mostrou uma ferramenta adequada de previsão e análise da tendência de incidência da LV no Maranhão. A determinação da variação temporal e sua predição são determinantes no norteamento de medidas de intervenção em saúde.

Relación entre indicadores de desarrollo social y mortalidad por Diabetes Mellitus en Brasil: análisis espacial y temporal / Relationship between social development indicators and mortality due to Diabetes Mellitus in Brazil: a space-time analysis / Relação indicadores de desenvolvimento social e mortalidade por diabetes mellitus no Brasil: análise espacial e temporal

Objetivo: identificar el patrón espacial y temporal de la mortalidad por Diabetes Mellitus en Brasil y su relación con los indicadores de desarrollo social. Método: estudio ecológico y de series temporales, a nivel nacional, con base en datos secundarios del Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud, con análisis espacial y temporal e inserción de indicadores en modelos de regresión no espacial y espacial. Se realizaron: cálculo de la tasa de mortalidad general; caracterización del perfil sociodemográfico y regional de las muertes mediante análisis descriptivo y temporal; y elaboración de mapas temáticos. Resultados: en Brasil se registraron 601.521 muertes relacionadas con la Diabetes Mellitus, lo que representa una mortalidad media de 29,5/100.000 habitantes. Los estados de Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas y Sergipe, Río de Janeiro, Paraná y Rio Grande do Sul presentaron conglomerados alto-alto. Mediante el uso de modelos de regresión, se comprobó que el índice de Gini (β=11,7) y la cobertura de la Estrategia Salud de la Familia (β=3,9) fueron los indicadores que más influyeron en la mortalidad por Diabetes Mellitus en Brasil. Conclusión: la mortalidad por diabetes en Brasil tiene una tendencia general alcista, está fuertemente asociada a los lugares con peores indicadores sociales.

Objective: to identify the space-time pattern of mortality due to Diabetes Mellitus in Brazil, as well as its relationship with social development indicators. Method: an ecological and time series nationwide study based on secondary data from the Unified Health System Informatics Department, with space-time analysis and inclusion of indicators in non-spatial and spatial regression models. The following was performed: overall mortality rate calculation; characterization of the sociodemographic and regional profiles of the death cases by means of descriptive and time analysis; and elaboration of thematic maps. Results: a total of 601,521 deaths related to Diabetes Mellitus were recorded in Brazil, representing a mean mortality rate of 29.5/100,000 inhabitants. The states of Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas and Sergipe, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul presented high-high clusters. By using regression models, it was verified that the Gini index (β=11.7) and the Family Health Strategy coverage (β=3.9) were the indicators that most influenced mortality due to Diabetes Mellitus in Brazil. Conclusion: in Brazil, mortality due to Diabetes presents an overall increasing trend, revealing itself as strongly associated with places that have worse social indicators.

Objetivo: identificar o padrão espacial e temporal da mortalidade por diabetes mellitus, no Brasil, e sua relação com indicadores de desenvolvimento social. Método: estudo ecológico e de séries temporais, de abrangência nacional, com base em dados secundários do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde, com análise espacial e temporal e inserção de indicadores em modelos de regressão não espacial e espacial. Realizaram-se: cálculo da taxa de mortalidade geral; caracterização do perfil sociodemográfico e regional dos óbitos mediante análise descritiva e temporal; e construção de mapas temáticos. Resultados: foram registrados 601.521 óbitos relacionados ao diabetes mellitus no Brasil, representando mortalidade média de 29,5/100.000 habitantes. Os estados do Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas e Sergipe, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná e Rio Grande do Sul apresentaram aglomerados alto-alto. Por meio do uso de modelos de regressão, verificou-se que o índice Gini (β=11,7) e a cobertura da Estratégia de Saúde da Família (β=3,9) foram os indicadores que mais influenciaram a mortalidade por diabetes mellitus no Brasil. Conclusão: a mortalidade por diabetes, no Brasil, exibe tendência geral ascendente, revelando-se fortemente associada a locais com piores indicadores sociais.

Treatment patterns and healthcare resource utilization for triple negative breast cancer in the Brazilian private healthcare system: a database study.

In Brazil, data on the management of triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) as well as the burden of the disease in terms of health care resources utilization (HCRU) are scarce. To characterize the treatment patterns and HCRU associated with the management of Brazilian TNBC patients from the perspective of the private healthcare setting. Patients with at least one claim related to ICD-10 C50 from January 2012 until December 2017, and at least one claim for breast cancer treatment were assessed from a private claims database and classified as early and locally advanced, or metastatic. All patients with hormone and/or targeted therapy were excluded. Three thousand and four patients were identified, of which 82.8% were diagnosed in early and locally advanced stages. For early and locally advanced TNBC patients, 75.3% were treated in an adjuvant setting, mainly with anthracycline regimes. For mTNBC patients, bevacizumab regimens were the main treatment prescribed. More than 48% of mTNBC patients were switched to a second line of treatment. HCRU was higher for mTNBC patients when compared to early and locally advanced patients, with higher costs for metastatic disease management. The treatment setting has little influence on the HCRU pattern or the cost of disease management. The highest burden of disease was observed for metastatic management.

Evaluation of primary health care by users during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the primary health care (PHC) attributes and associated factors during the COVID-19 pandemic using the perspective of users. METHODS: This cross-sectional, quantitative study included 422 PHC users from 96 Family Health Teams in a city in Brazil. The assessment used the Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCATool) and a structured questionnaire on the sociodemographic and epidemiological characteristics of users and basic health units (BHU). The Person's chi-square test was used to analyze the association between high overall scores in PCATool and characteristics of users and BHU. Crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) with a 95% confidence interval were also calculated. Poisson regression and Rao Scott's Chi-square test were used to estimate crude PR. RESULTS: Most users were aged 30 to 39 years (26.3%), women (75.4%), registered at the BHU for over ten years (59.5%), and had incomplete secondary education (30.6%). The mean of PHC essential attributes and overall scores were low (6.10 ± 0.81 and 5.78 ± 0.77, respectively). "First-contact care-use" received the highest score (9.22 ± 1.62), while "first-contact care-accessibility" received the lowest (2.82 ± 0.90). High overall scores were associated with an average employment time of professionals (doctors and nurses) at the BHU (PR = 1.31; 95% CI 1.17-1.48; p < 0.001) and lower educational level of users (PR = 1.71; 95% CI 1.54-1.90; p < 0.001. CONCLUSION: "First-contact care-use" was the best evaluated, while "first-contact care-accessibility" was the worst. High scores were associated with a lower educational level of users and BHU with more experienced professionals.

HLA Alleles in a Behçet Disease Multiethnic Population With and Without Ophthalmic Manifestations.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze HLA alleles in patients with Behçet disease (BD) and their correlation with ophthalmic manifestations (OMs) in a multiethnic Brazilian population. METHODS: This case-control study compared 72 BD patients with or without OM who underwent a thorough ophthalmologic evaluation, including best-corrected visual acuity, bino-ophthalmoscopy, and HLA analysis, with 144 matched healthy controls. Fluorescein angiography was also performed in the patients with BD and OM. HLA class I (A, B, and C) and II (DRB1, DQB1, and DQA1) typing were performed using PCR-SSO. RESULTS: Of 72 patients with BD, 42 (58%) had OM. The HLA-B*51 and -A*26 alleles were more frequent in patients with BD than in controls (23.6% vs 14.6% and 12.5% vs 4.3%, respectively), but could not differentiate OM risk. The HLA alleles of BD patients that differentiated those with and without OM were HLA-B*15 (40.5% vs 20.7%; odds ratio [OR], 2.59; p = 0.0059), HLA-C*02 (33.3% vs 13.4%; OR, 3.20; p = 0.0024), and HLA-DQB1*03 (64.3% vs 45.7%, p = 0.017), whereas HLA-A*03 (0.0% vs 13.3%, p = 0.006) and HLA-DRB1*15 (4.8% vs 19.5%; OR, 0.21; p = 0.0121) were protective against OM. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of a Brazilian multiethnic BD population, alleles were similar between groups of BD patients with and without OM. We described HLA-B*15, -C*02, and -DQB1*03 as risk factors and -A*03 and -DRB1*15 as protective factors for OM in BD, which could function as biomarkers for predicting disease phenotypes.

Patterns of physical activity and SARS-CoV-2 severe pneumonia: A case–control study / Patrones de actividad física y neumonía grave por SARS-CoV-2: un estudio de casos y controles

Background Regular physical activity is associated with a low risk of severe community-acquired infections. However, the hypothesis that a physical inactivity pattern is associated with a higher risk for severe COVID-19 has not been completely proven, especially with severe pneumonia. Objective The goal of this study was to confirm the link between physical activity patterns and severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Design Case–control study. Methods This study involved 307 patients who developed SARS-CoV-2 severe pneumonia and were hospitalized in an intensive care unit. Age- and sex-matched controls (307) were selected from the same population: patients with mild to moderate forms of COVID-19 who were not hospitalized. Physical activity patterns were assessed using the short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Results The mean physical activity levels were lower in the SARS-CoV-2 severe pneumonia group as compared to the control group: 1576±2939 vs 2438±2999, metabolic equivalent of task (MET-min/week), p<0.001. A high or moderate physical activity level was more common in the control group, and a low physical activity level was more observed in the case group (p<0.001). Obesity was also associated with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia (p<0.001). Multivariable analysis showed that a low physical activity level was associated with a higher risk for severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, independent of nutritional status (CI 3.7; 2.24–5.99), p<0.001). Conclusion A higher and moderate level of physical activity is linked to a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 severe pneumonia (AU)

Antecedentes y objetivos La actividad física regular se asocia con un bajo riesgo de infecciones graves adquiridas en la comunidad. Sin embargo, la hipótesis de que un patrón de inactividad física se asocia con un mayor riesgo de COVID-19 grave no ha sido completamente probada, especialmente con neumonía grave. El objetivo de este estudio fue confirmar el vínculo entre los patrones de actividad física y la neumonía grave por SARS-CoV-2. Material y métodos Estudio de casos y controles. Este estudio involucró a 307 pacientes que desarrollaron neumonía grave por SARS-CoV-2 y fueron hospitalizados en una unidad de cuidados intensivos. Se seleccionaron controles emparejados por edad y sexo (307) de la misma población: pacientes con formas leves a moderadas de COVID-19 que no fueron hospitalizados. Los patrones de actividad física se evaluaron utilizando la versión corta del Cuestionario Internacional de Actividad Física. Resultados Los niveles medios de actividad física fueron menores en el grupo de neumonía grave por SARS-CoV-2 en comparación con el grupo control: 1576±2939 vs 2438±2999, equivalente metabólico de la tarea (MET-min/semana), p<0.001. Un nivel de actividad física alto o moderado fue más común en el grupo control, y un nivel de actividad física bajo fue más observado en el grupo de casos (p<0,001). La obesidad también se asoció con neumonía grave por SARS-CoV-2 (p<0,001). El análisis multivariable mostró que un bajo nivel de actividad física se asoció con un mayor riesgo de neumonía grave por SARS-CoV-2, independientemente del estado nutricional (IC 3,7; 2,24-5,99), p<0,001). Conclusión Un nivel de actividad física más alto y moderado se relaciona con un menor riesgo de neumonía grave por SARS-CoV-2 (AU)

Human immunodeficiency virus epidemic scenery among brazilian women: a spatial analysis study.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 37.7 million people worldwide are infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Although HIV detection among women, they still representing 53% of population living with the virus. Spatial analysis techniques are powerful tools for combating HIV allowing the association of the phenomenon with socioeconomic and political factors. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to spatially analyze HIV prevalence among Brazilian women from 2007 to 2020. METHODS: ecological study was conducted using secondary databases of the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) for HIV and Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrom (AIDS) in Brazilian women 15 years old and over. Age-adjusted HIV/AIDS incidence rates were analyzed using spatial distribution, autocorrelation, and spatiotemporal risk analysis techniques. RESULTS: During the study period, 119,890 cases of HIV/AIDS were reported among Brazilian women. The southeastern region had a higher age-adjusted HIV/AIDS incidence than other Brazilian regions. Hotspot HIV/AIDS incidence rates decreased in all Brazil. Piauí, Paraná, and Minas Gerais were the only states with an increased number of cold spots. Previous spatiotemporal risk zones were observed in the states of São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul, and Rio de Janeiro. Belém was a risk zone with a later spatiotemporal risk. CONCLUSIONS: The efficiency of public policies fighting HIV has not been uniform among municipalities, although HIV/AIDS cases have decreased among Brazilian women. The social determinants of health in each municipality should be considered when local health authorities implement policies. Women empowerment should be promoted, and access to preventive, diagnostic, and treatment healthcare places should be expanded and guaranteed.

A "transatlantic" follow-up study of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Obsessive-compulsive symptom fluctuations may be contingent on the number of stressful pandemic-related events and the resilience characterizing different cultures. We investigated the influence of the pandemic on symptom changes in a sample of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) patients from Brazil and Italy, two countries that were highly affected by the outbreak. METHODS: Ninety-one OCD outpatients were evaluated at baseline and about one year later. Thirty of them were assessed in Brazil and 61 in Italy. Socio-demographic variables, symptoms' severity and the number of stressful pandemic-related events were collected. Comparisons between countries' samples were performed, and a linear regression examined whether the country of origin, demographic features and the number of stressful events were able to predict the symptoms' severity at the follow-up. RESULTS: Brazilian patients experienced more stressful pandemic-related events than Italian patients (p = 0.018). However, along with higher age (p < 0.01) and increased severity of symptoms at baseline (p < 0.01), lower number of events predicted increased symptoms' severity after one year (p < 0.01). Country of origin was not a significant predictor of severity. LIMITATIONS: Small number of subjects; lack of information regarding duration of illness; and potential sample differences between countries. CONCLUSIONS: During the pandemic, the occurrence of more stressful pandemic-related events was associated with decreased severity of patients' OCD symptoms. Nevertheless, older patients and those with more severe symptoms seemed prone to exhibit increased OCD severity at follow-up.

Use of vitamins and/or minerals among adults and the elderly in urban areas of Brazil: prevalence and associated factors. / Uso de vitaminas e/ou minerais entre adultos e idosos em áreas urbanas no Brasil: prevalência e fatores associados.

The purpose of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of vitamin and/or mineral use among urban Brazilian populations aged 20 years and over and to identify associated factors. Data from the National Survey on Access, Use and Promotion of the Rational Use of Medicines in Brazil (PNAUM) were analyzed and a population-based cross-sectional study with probability sampling was performed in urban areas of Brazil's five geographic regions from September 2013 to February 2014. The estimated prevalence of vitamin and/or mineral use was 4.8% (95%CI: 4.3-5.3), higher in women 6.4% (95%CI: 5.7-7.1) and in the elderly population 11.6% (95%CI: 10.5-12.8). Vitamin and/or mineral use was associated with the following factors: women, 60 years of age or older, economic class A/B, chronic disease(s) and self-perceived health held as average and very poor/poor. Multivitamins and multiminerals were the most used ones with 24.5% (95%CI 20.1-29.4), followed by calcium and vitamin D with 23.4% (95%CI 19.7-27.5). Data suggest that elderly women should be the reference public for actions aimed at promoting rational use. Nationwide epidemiological surveys should increase monitoring of these products to support the analysis of trends.

O objetivo do estudo foi estimar a prevalência do uso de vitaminas e/ou minerais na população brasileira urbana com idade maior ou igual a 20 anos e identificar os fatores associados ao uso. Foram analisados os dados da Pesquisa Nacional sobre Acesso, Utilização e Promoção do Uso Racional de Medicamentos no Brasil (PNAUM), estudo transversal de base populacional, com amostra probabilística, realizada nas áreas urbanas das cinco regiões geográficas do país entre setembro de 2013 e fevereiro de 2014. A prevalência do uso estimada foi de 4,8% (IC95% 4,3-5,3), maior no sexo feminino, 6,4% (IC95% 5,7-7,1), e na população idosa, 11,6% (IC95% 10,5-12,8). O uso de vitaminas e/ou minerais mostrou-se associado aos fatores: sexo feminino, 60 anos ou mais, classe econômica A/B, apresentar doença(s) crônica(s) e autopercepção de saúde regular e muito ruim/ruim. Os multivitamínicos e multiminerais obtiveram maior frequência de uso, 24,5% (IC95% 20,1-29,4), seguido de cálcio e vitamina D, 23,4% (IC95% 19,7-27,5). Os dados sugerem que mulheres idosas devam ser o público referencial para ações de promoção do uso racional. Recomenda-se que os inquéritos epidemiológicos de abrangência nacional possam ampliar a observação desses produtos para possibilitar a análise de tendências.

Molecular detection and characterization of SARS-CoV-2 in cats and dogs of positive owners during the first COVID-19 wave in Brazil.

Despite previous reports of SARS-CoV-2 infection in dogs and cats worldwide, the type of swab sample used for its detection through RT-qPCR needs to be better compared and described. Accordingly, as part of a multicenter study in Brazil, the aim of the present study was to assess which rectal or oropharyngeal swabs would be more appropriate for detecting SARS-CoV-2 in cats and dogs, through viral load comparison. Pets of owners diagnosed with COVID-19 in the last 7 days were eligible. A total of 148 animals from four of the five Brazilian geographical regions were analyzed, among which 10/48 cats (20.83%) and 11/100 dogs (11.00%) were positive. The results suggested that oropharyngeal swabs should be considered for SARS-CoV-2 detection, particularly in cats, due to the higher cDNA viral load. Also, the genomic results showed similarities between SARS-CoV-2 animal variants and human variants that were circulating at the time of sampling, thus corroborating the existence of zooanthroponotic transmission. In conclusion, the present study highlighted the importance of SARS-CoV-2 monitoring among cats and dogs, as virus modification may indicate the possibility of mutations in animals and spillover back to owners. Thus, positive individuals should always self-isolate from their pets during COVID-19, to prevent trans-species transmission and mutation.

Preterm births prevalence during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: results from the national database.

The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic impacted the health systems between and within countries, and in the course of the pandemic sexual and reproductive health services were the most disrupted. Findings from high-income settings have reported significant changes in preterm birth prevalence during the pandemic period. To understand the possible effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on preterm birth numbers at the Brazilian national level. We compare the number of preterm deliveries during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020 and 2021) with previous years. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study taking the period from January 2017 to December 2021 to account. We use individual-level live births data from the Brazilian Live Birth Information System (SINASC), and we estimate the odds ratio (OR) of preterm deliveries using propensity score weighting analysis in Brazil and its regions. During the study period (from 2017 to 2021), about 2.7 million live births were recorded per year, and the missing value for gestational age at delivery was less than 1.5%. The preterm birth prevalence slightly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period (11.32% in 2021 vs 11.09% in 2019, p-value < 0.0001). After adjusting for sociodemographic variables, the OR of preterm births in Brazil has significantly increased, 4% in 2020 (OR: 1.04 [1.03-1.05] 95% CI, p-value < 0.001), and 2% in 2021(OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] 95% CI, p-value < 0.001), compared to 2019. At the regional level, the preterm birth pattern in the South, Southeast and Northeast regions show a similar pattern. The highest odds ratio was observed in the South region (2020 vs 2019, OR: 1.07 [1.05-1.10] 95% CI; 2021 vs 2019, OR: 1.03 [1.01-1.06] 95% CI). However, we also observed a significant reduction in the ORs of preterm births in the northern region during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020 vs 2019, OR: 0.96 [0.94-0.98] 95% CI) and (2021 vs 2019, OR: 0.97 [0.95-0.99] 95% CI). Our analysis shows that the pandemic has increased regional variation in the number of preterm births in Brazil in 2020 and 2021 compared to the pre-pandemic years.

[Estimated multimorbity among young Brazilians: results of the 2019 National Health Survey]. / Estimativa de multimorbidade em jovens brasileiros: resultados da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde 2019.

Multimorbidity, namely the presence of two or more chronic non-communicable diseases, is directly associated with behavioral factors. This study sought to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity among young Brazilians by linking it to different social and lifestyle determinants. It involved a cross-sectional study of the data source, namely the 2019 National Health Survey. Data from individuals aged between 15 and 24 years (n = 10,460) were selected. Associated factors were investigated by calculating the Prevalence Ratio with robust variance, suitable for bivariate and multivariate analysis. The prevalence of multimorbidity in young people was estimated at 7.84% (95%CI: 7.01-8.75; N: 2,455,097). The most common conditions were mental illness, depression, asthma or bronchitis and chronic back problems. In the adjusted model, young females (PR: 1.84; 95%CI: 1.44-2.36), obese youths (PR: 1.97; 95%CI: 1.45-2.68) and former smokers (PR: 1.46; 95%CI: 1.12-1.90) showed a higher prevalence of multimorbidity. It was also revealed that the prevalence ratio for multimorbidity increased by 5% for each year of the individual's life. This study identified an association of multimorbidity with social determinants and lifestyle.

A multimorbidade, presença de duas ou mais doenças crônicas não transmissíveis, está diretamente associada a fatores comportamentais. O objetivo da pesquisa foi estimar a prevalência de multimorbidade em jovens brasileiros relacionando-a aos diferentes determinantes sociais e de estilo de vida. Trata-se de um estudo transversal cuja fonte de dados foi a Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde em 2019. Foram selecionados dados de indivíduos com idade entre 15 e 24 anos (n = 10.460). Os fatores associados foram investigados por meio do cálculo da razão de prevalência com variância robusta, adequado para análise bivariada e multivariada. A prevalência de multimorbidade nos jovens foi estimada em 7,84% (IC95%: 7,01-8,75; N: 2.455.097). Os agravos mais comuns foram doenças mentais, depressão, asma ou bronquite e problemas crônicos de coluna. No modelo ajustado, jovens do sexo feminino (RP: 1,84; IC95%: 1,44-2,36), obesos (RP: 1,97; IC95%: 1,45-2,68) e ex-fumantes (RP: 1,46; IC95%: 1,12-1,90) apresentaram maiores prevalências para multimorbidade. A razão de prevalência para multimorbidade aumentou 5% a cada ano de vida do indivíduo. Este estudo identificou uma associação de multimorbidade com determinantes sociais e estilo de vida.

Dengue Fever Surveillance in Mato Grosso do Sul: Insights from Genomic Analysis and Implications for Public Health Strategies.

Since its discovery in early 1916, dengue fever, a common vector-borne illness in Brazil, has resulted in extensive urban outbreaks and poses a serious threat to the public's health. Understanding the dynamics of Dengue Virus (DENV) serotypes circulating in different regions of Brazil is essential for implementing effective disease control and prevention measures. In response to this urgent need, we conducted an on-site training program in genomic surveillance in collaboration with the Central Laboratory of Health and the Secretary of Health of the Mato Grosso do Sul state. This initiative resulted in the generation of 177 DENV genome sequences collected between May 2021 and May 2022, a period during which over 11,391 dengue fever cases were reported in the state. Through this approach, we were able to identify the co-circulation of two different dengue serotypes (DENV1 and DENV2) as well as the existence of diverse viral lineages within each genotype, suggesting that multiple introduction events of different viral strains occurred in the region. By integrating epidemiological data, our findings unveiled temporal fluctuations in the relative abundance of different serotypes throughout various epidemic seasons, highlighting the complex and changing dynamics of DENV transmission throughout time. These findings demonstrate the value of ongoing surveillance activities in tracking viral transmission patterns, monitoring viral evolution, and informing public health actions.

Hepatitis C and Human Pegivirus Coinfection in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C from the Brazilian Amazon Region: Prevalence, Genotypes and Clinical Data.

Coinfection of HPgV-1 with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is common due to shared modes of transmission, with a prevalence of HPgV-1 viremia of approximately 20% among individuals with chronic HCV infection. The aim of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of HPgV-1 RNA and circulating genotypes in patients with hepatitis C from a health service located in the city of Belém, in the state of Pará, Northern Brazil. A total of 147 samples were included in the study from February to December 2019. Among the participants, 72.1% (106/147) were monoinfected with HCV, with detectable HCV viral RNA, and 27.9% (41/147) were coinfected with HCV/HPgV-1. The most frequently found genotypes were HPgV-1 genotypes 1 and 2 (36.6% and 63.4%), respectively. While for HCV there was a predominance of genotypes 1 and 3 (58.5% and 41.5%). No significant differences were found when comparing any risk, sociodemographic, or clinical factors between groups. Also, there was no statistically significant difference when relating the viral genotypes of both agents. This study indicated that the prevalence of infection by HPgV-1 is high in HCV carriers in Belém, Pará, and probably does not change the clinical course of HCV infection, however, further studies are still needed.

Characteristics of carbohydrate counting practice associated with adequacy of glycated hemoglobin in adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus in Brazil.

Background: The Carbohydrate Counting (CC) is directly associated with achieving glycemic control by people with Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM). Therefore, this study aims to analyze characteristics of the CC practice associated with the adequacy of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in adults with T1DM in Brazil. Methods: The study was cross-sectional, carried out using an online form with questions about knowledge of CC, clinical, anthropometric, sociodemographic data, follow-up with health professionals and understanding of the concepts of CC. Pearson's chi-square test and binomial logistic regression analysis (p<0.05) were applied. Results: 173 adults participated, of which 57.2% had increased HbA1c (≥7%). Having the diabetes duration <10 years (p=0.006), performing the CC at lunch (p=0.040) and dinner (p=0.018), using specific applications to perform the CC (p=0.001), having learned to perform CC with a nutritionist (p=0.037) and knowing how to correctly define the concepts of food bolus (p=0.001), correction bolus (p<0.001) and insulin/carbohydrate ratio (p<0.001) was associated with having adequate HbA1c (<7%). Participants who were undergoing CC practice were 3.273 times more likely to have adequate HbA1c and participants with diabetes duration <10 years were 2.686 times more likely to have adequate HbA1c. Conclusion: It was concluded that variables transversal to CC favor adequate HbA1c values in adults with T1DM and that practicing CC and having a diabetes duration of less than 10 years are predictive factors of having adequate HbA1c.

A worm in the toilet bowl! What does it tell us about the challenges in the identification of supposed human parasites in practical parasitology?

Non-parasitic vermiform organisms can circumstantially be associated with humans and their identification can be challenging for medical professionals. The present report describes the finding of a worm in the toilet bowl by a patient from Brazil, who thought he had expelled it in his feces. The gross analyses in a clinical laboratory reveal the worm was different from other macroscopic organisms routinely identified, and the laboratory staff requested assistance in an academic laboratory specialized in helminthology. After preliminary analysis in a stereomicroscope, the supposed human worm was identified as an oligochaete annelid (earthworm). The patient was contacted to investigate a possible case of pseudoparasitism. However, we were informed that the organism had been collected in a toilet bowl from a rural environment where the untreated water comes from a cistern indicating our finding was circumstantial. The methodology revisited herein allowed a quick microscopic analysis of easy-to-view morphological structures, which are useful to separate oligochaete annelids from helminths and can prevent misdiagnosis in similar situations. We discuss the overly restricted view on human parasites by health professionals in collecting clinical history and laboratory analysis, providing some epistemological insights on the necessary interdisciplinarity between parasitology and other basic knowledge with health practice.

An evidence-based primary health care intervention to address domestic violence against women in Brazil: a mixed method evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Health systems have a critical role in a multi-sectoral response to domestic violence against women (DVAW). However, the evidence on interventions is skewed towards high income countries, and evidence based interventions are not easily transferred to low-and middle-income countries (LMIC) where significant social, cultural and economic differences exist. We evaluated feasibility and acceptability of implementation of an intervention (HERA-Healthcare Responding to Violence and Abuse) to improve the response to DVAW in two primary health care clinics (PHC) in Brazil. METHODS: The study design is a mixed method process and outcome evaluation, based on training attendance records, semi-structured interviews (with 13 Primary Health Care (PHC) providers, two clinic directors and two women who disclosed domestic violence), and identification and referral data from the Brazilian Epidemiological Surveillance System (SINAN). RESULTS: HERA was feasible and acceptable to women and PHC providers, increased providers' readiness to identify DVAW and diversified referrals outside the health system. The training enhanced the confidence and skills of PHC providers to ask directly about violence and respond to women's disclosures using a women centred, gender and human rights perspective. PHC providers felt safe and supported when dealing with DVAW because HERA emphasised clear roles and collective action within the clinical team. A number of challenges affected implementation including: differential managerial support for the Núcleo de Prevenção da Violência (Violence Prevention Nucleus-NPV) relating to the allocation of resources, monitoring progress and giving feedback; a lack of higher level institutional endorsement prioritising DVAW work; staff turnover; a lack of feedback from external support services to PHC clinics regarding DVAW cases; and inconsistent practices regarding documentation of DVAW. CONCLUSION: Training should be accompanied by system-wide institutional change including active (as opposed to passive) management support, allocation of resources to support roles within the NPV, locally adapted protocols and guidelines, monitoring progress and feedback. Communication and coordination with external support services and documentation systems are crucial and need improvement. DVAW should be prioritised within leadership and governance structures, for example, by including DVAW work as a specific commissioning goal.

Body shape trajectories are associated with birth weight, body mass index and sociodemographic conditions in participants of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil): a multiple correspondence analysis.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating lifelong weight trajectories is challenging due to the high costs of studies that follow individuals from childhood to adulthood. The use of silhouette scales has been a new approach to assess the body shape trajectory across life as a proxy for body weight trajectory. Depending on body shape trajectories, individuals may be more prone to develop diseases in adulthood. Therefore, identifying factors related to them is essential for public health. This study aimed to evaluate body shape trajectories across the lifespan and to verify associations between them, birth weight, body mass index, and sociodemographic conditions in a Brazilian cohort. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional analysis conducted with 14,014 participants of first follow-up data collection of Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). ELSA-Brasil is a multicentric prospective cohort study initiated in 2008 with civil servants of six public institutions in the Northeast, South and Southeast regions of Brazil. We applied a clustering method to longitudinal data to identify body shape trajectories from 5 to 40 years of age and assessed the associations between these trajectories and birth weight, body mass index and sociodemographic conditions (race, education, maternal education and monthly per capita family income) using multiple correspondence analysis. RESULTS: We found five body shape trajectories for women and three for men. Low birth weight was associated with a slight to moderate increase in shape. High birth weight was associated with maintaining large body size in both sexes and markedly increased body shape in women. Higher sociodemographic status and white race were associated with marked increases in body shape in men and maintenance of medium body shape in women. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that variables related to worse lifetime weight status (evaluated by anthropometry), such as presence of obesity, are also associated with worse body shape trajectories, as assessed with silhouette scales. Our results suggest that body shape trajectories are a good indicator of body weight trajectories and may be used when cohort studies are not possible.

A Comparison of Cognitive Performance, Depressive Symptoms, and Incidence of Falls in Brazilian Older Women with and without a Confirmed History of COVID-19.

The study aimed to compare cognitive performance, depressive symptoms, and the incidence of falls in Brazilian older women with and without a confirmed history of COVID-19. This cross-sectional study included 188 women (60-89 years), divided into two groups: one with a history of COVID-19 (n = 139), and one without any history of COVID-19 (n = 49). The instruments used were the Cognitive Telephone Screening Instrument (COGTEL) test battery, the Trail Making Test (TMT), the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15), and the self-reported history of falls since the beginning of mandatory confinement. The higher the age, the higher the incidence of falls. The highest prevalence of falls (57.1%) occurred in the COVID-19 group (p = 0.001), the members of which also indicated a better cognitive performance in the COGTEL test (p = 0.017), TMT-B (p = 0.004), and ∆TMT (B-A) (p = 0.004). In turn, the depressive symptoms were more severe in the COVID-19 group (p < 0.001). We observed that COVID-19 infection without hospitalization did not affect the cognitive performance of older adult women. Future studies should be carried out to monitor the mental health of older adult Brazilian women. Moreover, regardless of their history of COVID-19, older adults should participate in a physical training program focused on preventing falls.

Dental Pain Medication Prescriptions in Minas Gerais, Brazil (2011-2021): A Time-Series Analysis.

To describe trends of dentist-prescribed non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and analgesics, from January 2011 to December 2021, as well as to examine the relationship between these trends and characteristics of public oral health services in Minas Gerais, Brazil. In this time-series analysis, all drugs were classified according to the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification system. Drugs categorized as NSAIDs (M01A), and other analgesics and antipyretics (N02B) were included for analysis. The outcome was the number of Defined Daily Doses (DDDs)/1000 inhabitants/year for NSAIDs and analgesics in each town. Covariates referred to characteristics of public oral health services, such as coverage, estimates of dental procedures, and frequency of toothache. Linear time-series regression models were used to determine the influence of covariates on the outcome. Overall, there were 58,482 prescriptions of NSAIDs recorded in thirty-eight towns, while 47,499 prescriptions of analgesics in forty-three towns. For each year, there was a 0.38 (p < 0.001), and 0.28 (p < 0.001) increase in the average log of DDD/1000 inhabitants/year for NSAIDs and analgesics, respectively. A positive association was detected between toothache (p < 0.001) and the prescription of NSAIDs. Over the eleven years, there was a general rising trend in the prescriptions. Toothache was the only characteristic of public oral health services associated with the prescription rates of NSAIDs, implying that as the frequency of toothaches increase, so do the prescriptions of NSAIDs in the studied towns.