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1.
Int J Occup Environ Med ; 11(4): 188-195, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33098403

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Although many studies have provided evidence for all-cause mortality attributed to extreme temperature across India, few studies have provided a systematic analysis of the association between all-cause mortality and temperature. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk associated with heat waves during two major heat waves of Nagpur occurred in 2010 and 2014. METHODS: The association between temperature and mortality was measured using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and the attributable deaths associated with the heat waves with forward perspective in the DLNM framework. RESULTS: From the ecological analysis, we found 580 and 306 additional deaths in 2010 and 2014, respectively. Moving average results also gave similar findings. DLNM results showed that the relative risk was 1.5 for the temperature above 45 °C; forward perspective analysis revealed that the attributable deaths during 2010 and 2014 were 505 and 376, respectively. Results from different methods showed that heat waves in different years had variable impacts for various reasons. However, all the results were consistent during 2010 and 2014; there were 30% and 14% extra-mortalities due to heat comparing to non-heat wave years. CONCLUSION: We strongly recommend the city Government to implement the action plans based on this research outcome to reduce the risk from the heat wave in future.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/mortalidade , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Clima Extremo , Golpe de Calor/mortalidade , Cidades , Clima , Humanos , Índia
2.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32784593

RESUMO

The objective of the study was to investigate, using academic-community epidemiologic co-analysis, the odds of reported heat-related illness for people with (1) central air conditioning (AC) or window unit AC versus no AC, and (2) fair/poor vs. good/excellent reported health. From 2016 to 2017, 101 Detroit residents were surveyed once regarding extreme heat, housing and neighborhood features, and heat-related illness in the prior 5 years. Academic partners selected initial confounders and, after instruction on directed acyclic graphs, community partners proposed alternate directed acyclic graphs with additional confounders. Heat-related illness was regressed on AC type or health and co-selected confounders. The study found that heat-related illness was associated with no-AC (n = 96, odds ratio (OR) = 4.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.22, 17.72); living ≤5 years in present home (n = 57, OR = 10.39, 95% CI = 1.13, 95.88); and fair/poor vs. good/excellent health (n = 97, OR = 3.15, 95% CI = 1.33, 7.48). Co-analysis suggested multiple built-environment confounders. We conclude that Detroit residents with poorer health and no AC are at greater risk during extreme heat. Academic-community co-analysis using directed acyclic graphs enhances research on community-specific social and health vulnerabilities by identifying key confounders and future research directions for rigorous and impactful research.


Assuntos
Ar Condicionado/estatística & dados numéricos , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Transtornos de Estresse por Calor/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Pesquisa Participativa Baseada na Comunidade , Feminino , Nível de Saúde , Temperatura Alta , Humanos , Masculino , Michigan/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Qualidade de Vida , Inquéritos e Questionários
3.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32784700

RESUMO

Studies on the pattern of heatwave mortality using nationwide data that include rural areas are limited. This study aimed to assess the risk of heatwave-related mortality and evaluate the health risk-based definition of heatwave. We collected data on daily temperature and mortality from 229 districts in South Korea in 2011-2017. District-specific heatwave-related mortality risks were calculated using a distributed lag model. The estimates were pooled in the total areas and for each urban and rural area using meta-regression. In the total areas, the threshold point of heatwave mortality risk was estimated at the 93rd percentile of temperature, and it was lower in urban areas than in rural areas (92nd percentile vs. 95th percentile). The maximum risk of heatwave-related mortality in the total area was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.01-1.22), and it was slightly greater in rural areas than in the urban areas (RR: 1.23, 95% CI: 0.99-1.53 vs. RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01-1.20). The results differ by age- and cause-specific deaths. In conclusion, the patterns of heatwave-related mortality risk vary by area and sub-population in Korea. Thus, more target-specific heatwave definitions and action plans should be established according to different areas and populations.


Assuntos
Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Temperatura Alta , Mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Algoritmos , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Transtornos de Estresse por Calor/epidemiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade/tendências , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Temperatura , Adulto Jovem
4.
Nature ; 584(7819): 82-86, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32760046

RESUMO

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-discrete but prolonged periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures-can drastically alter ocean ecosystems, with profound ecological and socioeconomic impacts1-8. Considerable effort has been directed at understanding the patterns, drivers and trends of MHWs globally9-11. Typically, MHWs are characterized on the basis of their intensity and persistence at a given location-an approach that is particularly relevant for corals and other sessile organisms that must endure increased temperatures. However, many ecologically and commercially important marine species respond to environmental disruptions by relocating to favourable habitats, and dramatic range shifts of mobile marine species are among the conspicuous impacts of MHWs1,4,12,13. Whereas spatial temperature shifts have been studied extensively in the context of long-term warming trends14-18, they are unaccounted for in existing global MHW analyses. Here we introduce thermal displacement as a metric that characterizes MHWs by the spatial shifts of surface temperature contours, instead of by local temperature anomalies, and use an observation-based global sea surface temperature dataset to calculate thermal displacements for all MHWs from 1982 to 2019. We show that thermal displacements during MHWs vary from tens to thousands of kilometres across the world's oceans and do not correlate spatially with MHW intensity. Furthermore, short-term thermal displacements during MHWs are of comparable magnitude to century-scale shifts inferred from warming trends18, although their global spatial patterns are very different. These results expand our understanding of MHWs and their potential impacts on marine species, revealing which regions are most susceptible to thermal displacement, and how such shifts may change under projected ocean warming. The findings also highlight the need for marine resource management to account for MHW-driven spatial shifts, which are of comparable scale to those associated with long-term climate change and are already happening.


Assuntos
Migração Animal , Organismos Aquáticos , Ecossistema , Calor Extremo , Aquecimento Global , Água do Mar/análise , Animais , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Aquecimento Global/estatística & dados numéricos , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Modelos Teóricos , Oceanos e Mares
5.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 27(36): 45381-45389, 2020 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32789637

RESUMO

Cataract is the first cause of blindness and the major cause of visual impairment worldwide. Under conditions of global warming, researchers have begun to give attention to the influence of increasing temperature on cataract patients. Our paper aimed to investigate the association between extreme heat and hospital admissions for cataract in Hefei, China. Based on data from the New Rural Cooperative Medical System and National Meteorological Information Center, we used a generalized additive model and a distributed lag nonlinear model to examine the relationship between extreme heat and hospitalizations for cataract, with consideration of cumulative and lagged effects. When current mean temperature was above 28 °C, each 1 °C rise was associated with a 4% decrease in the number of cataract admissions (RR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94-0.98). The cumulative relative risk over 11 days of lag was the lowest, which indicated that every 1 °C increase in mean temperature above 28 °C was associated with a 19% decrease in the number of hospital admissions for cataract (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.75-0.88). In subgroup analyses, the negative association between extreme heat and hospital admissions for cataract was stronger among patients who were not admitted to provincial-level hospitals. In conclusion, this paper found that extreme heat was negatively associated with cataract hospitalizations in Hefei, providing useful information for hospitals and policymakers.


Assuntos
Catarata , Calor Extremo , Catarata/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Hospitalização , Humanos , Temperatura
7.
Environ Geochem Health ; 42(10): 3171-3184, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32350804

RESUMO

Numerous studies in epidemiology, meteorology, and climate change research have demonstrated a significant association between abnormal ambient temperature and mortality. However, there is a shortage of research attention to a systematic assessment of potential mitigation measures which could effectively reduce the heat-related morbidity and mortality risks. This study first illustrates a conceptualization of a systems analysis version of urban framework for climate service (UFCS). It then constructs a system dynamics (SD) model for the UFCS and employs this model to quantify the impacts of heat waves on public health system in Shanghai and to evaluate the performances of two mitigation measures in the context of a real heat wave event in July 2013 in the city. Simulation results show that in comparison with the baseline without mitigation measures, if the hospital system could prepare 20% of beds available for emergency response to heat waves once receiving the warning in advance, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 40-60 (15.8-19.5%) on the 2 days of day 7 and day 8; if increasing the minimum living allowance of 790 RMB/month in 2013 by 20%, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 50-70 (17.7-21.9%) on the 2 days of day 8 and day 12. This tool can help policy makers systematically evaluate adaptation and mitigation options based on performance assessment, thus strengthening urban resilience to changing climate.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Temperatura Alta/efeitos adversos , Mortalidade , China/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Saúde Pública , Risco , Análise de Sistemas
8.
Environ Int ; 137: 105541, 2020 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32059147

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is a leading cause of infant morbidity and mortality. Identifying potentially modifiable triggers toward the end of gestation, such as extreme heat, can improve understanding of the role of acute stress on early deliveries and inform warning systems. In this study we examined the association between extreme heat, variously defined during the last week of gestation, and risk of preterm birth among mothers in California. METHODS: We created a population-based cohort comprised of 1,967,300 mothers who had live, singleton births in California, from May through September 2005-2013. Daily temperature data estimated at the maternal zip code of residence was used to create 12 definitions of extreme heat with varying relative temperatures (75th, 90th, 95th, and 98th percentiles) and durations (at least 2, 3, or 4 consecutive days). We estimated risk of preterm birth (<37 gestational weeks) in relation to exposure to extreme heat during the last week of gestation with multi-level Cox proportional hazard regression models, adjusting for maternal characteristics, sex of neonate, and seasonality. We also included randomly generated data, SAS code, and estimates for reproducibility purposes. RESULTS: Approximately 7% of the cohort had a preterm birth. For all definitions of extreme heat, the risk of preterm birth was consistently higher among mothers who experienced an extreme heat episode during their last week of gestation. Hazard ratios ranged from 1.008 (95% CI: 0.997, 1.021) to 1.128 (95% CI: 1.052, 1.210), with increasing associations as the relative temperature and duration of extreme heat episode increased. CONCLUSION: This study adds to the previous literature by considering multiple definitions of extreme heat and applying a time-to-event framework. Findings suggest that acute exposure to extreme heat during the last week of gestation may trigger an earlier delivery. Implementing heat warning systems targeted toward pregnant women may improve birth outcomes.


Assuntos
Calor Extremo , Nascimento Prematuro , California/epidemiologia , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Gravidez , Terceiro Trimestre da Gravidez , Nascimento Prematuro/epidemiologia , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Temperatura
10.
Int J Environ Health Res ; 30(5): 515-532, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31081378

RESUMO

Extreme temperatures pose significant risks to human health and well-being. Older adults are particularly at risk and their susceptibility is a function of vulnerability to general daily life circumstances and to specified events or threats. For the first time, this paper develops a combined general and specified approach to understand the determinants of vulnerability. The findings show that most participants exhibit high levels of heat-related vulnerability, followed by cold-related vulnerability and lastly, general vulnerability. General vulnerability was shown to be primarily shaped by financial, physical and social assets. Whilst, specified vulnerability was found to be mainly shaped by human, physical and placed based assets. Such findings present opportunities to focus on the types of assets that contribute to reducing vulnerability. These findings also suggest that the role assets play in shaping vulnerability must be attended to if we are to fully understand and effectively implement strategies to reduce vulnerability.


Assuntos
Tempo Frio Extremo/efeitos adversos , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Populações Vulneráveis , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Cidades , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Portugal , Fatores Socioeconômicos
11.
Am J Public Health ; 110(2): 189-195, 2020 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31855483

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between heat and infant mortality and identify factors that influence infant vulnerability to heat. METHODS: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis of associations between ambient temperature and infant mortality in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, during the warm months of 2000 through 2015. We used conditional logistic regression models to estimate associations of infant mortality with daily temperatures on the day of death (lag 0) and for averaging periods of 0 to 1 to 0 to 3 days before the day of death. We explored modification of associations by individual and census tract-level characteristics and by amounts of green space. RESULTS: Risk of infant mortality increased by 22.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.0%, 42.6%) for every 1°C increase in minimum daily temperature over 23.9°C on the day of death. We observed limited evidence of effect modification across strata of the covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Our results contribute to a growing body of evidence that infants are a subpopulation that is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Further research using large data sets is critically needed to elucidate modifiable factors that may protect infants against heat vulnerability.


Assuntos
Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Pobreza , População Urbana , Estudos Cross-Over , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Mortalidade Infantil/etnologia , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Philadelphia , Estações do Ano
12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31842287

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Extreme heat and heat illness are becoming very frequent in India. We aimed to identify the factors associated with heat illness and the coping practices among city dwellers of Odisha, India during the summer. METHODS: A cross-sectional study included 766 households (HHs) in twin cities of Odisha covering a population of 1099 (slum: 404 and non-slum: 695) in the year 2017. We collected information on sociodemographic, household characteristics, coping practices to heat and the heat illness history reported during the summer. Multivariate logistic regression accounting for clustering effects at the household and slum levels was used to identify the associated factors of heat illness after adjustment of other variables. RESULT: Nearly, 49% of the study participants were female and the mean age was 38.36 years (95% confidence interval (CI): 37.33-39.39 years). A significant difference of living environment was seen across the groups. More than two-thirds of the study participants at least once had heat illness. In the non-slum population, males (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 3.56; 95% CI: 2.39-5.29), persons under medication (aOR: 3.09; 95% CI: 1.15-8.29), and chronic conditions had higher association with heat illness. Whereas, in the slum population, having a kitchen outside the home (aOR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.02-3.96) and persons with chronic conditions were positively associated with heat illness. Use of cooling practices in slum areas reduced the risk of heat illness by 60%. CONCLUSION: Heat illness is associated with the living environment and physical health of the individuals. Identifying the vulnerable population and scaling up adaptive practices can strengthen the public health preparedness.


Assuntos
Adaptação Fisiológica , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Transtornos de Estresse por Calor/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Doença Crônica , Cidades/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Características da Família , Feminino , Humanos , Índia/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Áreas de Pobreza , Adulto Jovem
14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31703402

RESUMO

Heat waves are one of the most common direct impacts of anthropogenic climate change and excess mortality their most apparent impact. While Turkey has experienced an increase in heat wave episodes between 1971 and 2016, no epidemiological studies have examined their potential impacts on public health so far. In this study excess mortality in Istanbul attributable to extreme heat wave episodes between 2013 and 2017 is presented. Total excess deaths were calculated using mortality rates across different categories, including age, sex, and cause of death. The analysis shows that three extreme heat waves in the summer months of 2015, 2016, and 2017, which covered 14 days in total, significantly increased the mortality rate and caused 419 excess deaths in 23 days of exposure. As climate simulations show that Turkey is one of the most vulnerable countries in the Europe region to the increased intensity of heat waves until the end of the 21st century, further studies about increased mortality and morbidity risks due to heat waves in Istanbul and other cities, as well as intervention studies, are necessary.


Assuntos
Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Mortalidade/tendências , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Cidades/estatística & dados numéricos , Mudança Climática , Feminino , Temperatura Alta , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Saúde Pública , Estações do Ano , Turquia , Adulto Jovem
17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31533360

RESUMO

The literature on the potential impacts of climate change on the health of outdoor workers has received limited attention as a whole, and in sub-Saharan African countries in particular. Yet, substantial numbers of workers are experiencing the health effects of elevated temperature, in combination with changes in precipitation patterns, climate extremes and the effects of air pollution, which have a potential impact on their safety and wellbeing. With increased temperatures within urban settlements and frequent heats waves, there has been a sudden rise in the occurrence of heat-related illness leading to higher levels of mortality, as well as other adverse health impacts. This paper discusses the impacts of extreme heat exposure and health concerns among outdoor workers, and the resultant impacts on their productivity and occupational safety in tropical developing countries with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, where there is a dearth of such studies. Aside from the direct effects caused by extreme heat exposure, other indirect health hazards associated with increasing heat among this group includes exposures to hazardous chemicals and other vector-borne diseases. In addition, reduced work capacity in heat-exposed jobs will continue to rise and hinder economic and social development in such countries. There is an urgent need for further studies around the health and economic impacts of climate change in the workplace, especially in tropical developing countries, which may guide the implementation of the measures needed to address the problem.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Exposição Ocupacional/efeitos adversos , Saúde do Trabalhador , África ao Sul do Saara , Eficiência , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Ocupações , Pesquisa , Mudança Social , Local de Trabalho
20.
Cad Saude Publica ; 35(9): e00165218, 2019 09 09.
Artigo em Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31508697

RESUMO

This study aimed to analyze mortality during heat waves in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 2005-2015. We used a time series design with generalized additive models, linking mortality to days of heat waves throughout the period, and to days of the heat wave in 2013, the longest wave since 1906, controlling for time variables, mean temperature, and humidity. Risk of death from natural causes increased by 14% (RR = 1.140; 95%CI: 1.108-1.173) during heat waves when compared to the other days in the hot season. The increase occurred in both sexes and in all age groups, and individuals under 15 years of age were more affected (RR = 1.167; 95%CI: 1.019-1.335) as were those over 84 years (RR = 1.201; 95%CI: 1.098-1.313). The heat wave in December 2013 showed an increase of 43% (RR = 1.428; 95%CI: 1.399-1.457) in total daily deaths, increasing to 51% in individuals over 84 years (RR = 1.515; 95%CI: 1.372-1.674) and 65% (RR = 1.647; 95%CI: 1.367-1.986) for renal causes. We conclude that heat waves pose a significant risk of death, differing according to sex and age in the population of Buenos Aires.


Assuntos
Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Mortalidade/tendências , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Argentina/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Causas de Morte , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Transtornos Respiratórios/mortalidade , Adulto Jovem
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