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1.
Environ Health ; 20(1): 105, 2021 09 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34537076

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Infections with nontyphoidal Salmonella cause an estimated 19,336 hospitalizations each year in the United States. Sources of infection can vary by state and include animal and plant-based foods, as well as environmental reservoirs. Several studies have recognized the importance of increased ambient temperature and precipitation in the spread and persistence of Salmonella in soil and food. However, the impact of extreme weather events on Salmonella infection rates among the most prevalent serovars, has not been fully evaluated across distinct U.S. regions. METHODS: To address this knowledge gap, we obtained Salmonella case data for S. Enteriditis, S. Typhimurium, S. Newport, and S. Javiana (2004-2014; n = 32,951) from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960-2014). Extreme heat and precipitation events for the study period (2004-2014) were identified using location and calendar day specific 95th percentile thresholds derived using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989). Negative binomial generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between exposure to extreme events and salmonellosis rates. RESULTS: We observed that extreme heat exposure was associated with increased rates of infection with S. Newport in Maryland (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 1.07, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.01, 1.14), and Tennessee (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.09), both FoodNet sites with high densities of animal feeding operations (e.g., broiler chickens and cattle). Extreme precipitation events were also associated with increased rates of S. Javiana infections, by 22% in Connecticut (IRR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.35) and by 5% in Georgia (IRR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.08), respectively. In addition, there was an 11% (IRR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04-1.18) increased rate of S. Newport infections in Maryland associated with extreme precipitation events. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our study suggests a stronger association between extreme precipitation events, compared to extreme heat, and salmonellosis across multiple U.S. regions. In addition, the rates of infection with Salmonella serovars that persist in environmental or plant-based reservoirs, such as S. Javiana and S. Newport, appear to be of particular significance regarding increased heat and rainfall events.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Clima Extremo , Doenças Transmitidas por Alimentos/epidemiologia , Infecções por Salmonella/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Risco , Estados Unidos , Adulto Jovem
4.
Nature ; 596(7870): 80-86, 2021 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34349288

RESUMO

Flooding affects more people than any other environmental hazard and hinders sustainable development1,2. Investing in flood adaptation strategies may reduce the loss of life and livelihood caused by floods3. Where and how floods occur and who is exposed are changing as a result of rapid urbanization4, flood mitigation infrastructure5 and increasing settlements in floodplains6. Previous estimates of the global flood-exposed population have been limited by a lack of observational data, relying instead on models, which have high uncertainty3,7-11. Here we use daily satellite imagery at 250-metre resolution to estimate flood extent and population exposure for 913 large flood events from 2000 to 2018. We determine a total inundation area of 2.23 million square kilometres, with 255-290 million people directly affected by floods. We estimate that the total population in locations with satellite-observed inundation grew by 58-86 million from 2000 to 2015. This represents an increase of 20 to 24 per cent in the proportion of the global population exposed to floods, ten times higher than previous estimates7. Climate change projections for 2030 indicate that the proportion of the population exposed to floods will increase further. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the satellite observations will improve our understanding of where floods are changing and how best to adapt. The global flood database generated from these observations will help to improve vulnerability assessments, the accuracy of global and local flood models, the efficacy of adaptation interventions and our understanding of the interactions between landcover change, climate and floods.


Assuntos
Aclimatação , Demografia , Planejamento em Desastres , Inundações/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Teóricos , Imagens de Satélites , Bases de Dados como Assunto , Clima Extremo , Humanos , Medição de Risco
5.
Sci Total Environ ; 791: 148243, 2021 Oct 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34412375

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Intensification of land use threatens to increase the emergence and prevalence of zoonotic diseases, with an adverse impact on human wellbeing. Understanding how the interaction between agriculture, natural systems, climate and socioeconomic drivers influence zoonotic disease distribution is crucial to inform policy planning and management to limit the emergence of new infections. OBJECTIVES: Here we assess the relative contribution of environmental, climatic and socioeconomic factors influencing reported cryptosporidiosis across Australia from 2001 to 2018. METHODS: We apply a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). RESULTS: We find that area-level risk of reported disease are associated with the proportions of the population under 5 and over 65 years of age, socioeconomic disadvantage, annual rainfall anomaly, and the proportion of natural habitat remaining. This combination of multiple factors influencing cryptosporidiosis highlights the benefits of a sophisticated spatio-temporal statistical approach. Two key findings from our model include: an estimated 4.6% increase in the risk of reported cryptosporidiosis associated with 22.8% higher percentage of postal area covered with original habitat; and an estimated 1.8% increase in disease risk associated with a 77.99 mm increase in annual rainfall anomaly at the postal area level. DISCUSSION: These results provide novel insights regarding the predictive effects of extreme rainfall and the proportion of remaining natural habitat, which add unique explanatory power to the model alongside the variance associated with other predictive variables and spatiotemporal variation in reported disease. This demonstrates the importance of including perspectives from land and water management experts for policy making and public health responses to manage environmentally mediated diseases, including cryptosporidiosis.


Assuntos
Criptosporidiose , Clima Extremo , Austrália/epidemiologia , Teorema de Bayes , Criptosporidiose/epidemiologia , Humanos , Fatores Socioeconômicos
6.
J Environ Manage ; 296: 113388, 2021 Oct 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34328864

RESUMO

The study examines the impacts of extreme weather events on public organization performance. In response to the growing call for adaptive capacity development amid a worsening climate, it pays particular attention to the effects of organizational adaptive capacity. Three components of an organization's adaptive capacity are investigated: formal institutions, organizational slack and contracting out (inverse of capacity). We focus on organizations' technical efficiency as a key performance indicator. Using a sample of 108 bus transit system in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest from 2008 to 2017, the analysis applies the Battese and Coelli (1995) specification for stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) with panel data. A general model is estimated to incorporate the heterogeneity in both the level and efficiency of output. The results confirm the efficacy of organizational adaptive capacity to enhance efficiency amid extreme weather. Specifically, higher levels of organizational slack or lower levels of contracting out can boost technical efficiency under extreme weather. Formal institutions, while temporarily compromising technical efficiency, holds potential for salient efficiency gains in the long run. The conclusion ends with a discussion on the theoretical and practical implications of this study.


Assuntos
Clima Extremo , Clima , Mudança Climática , Humanos , Organizações , Tempo (Meteorologia)
7.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 28(36): 49755-49773, 2021 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33939084

RESUMO

There is an increasing number of studies focusing on extreme weather all over the world, but global trends and research topics related to extreme weather are still unclear. This study aimed to explore the current situation, research themes, and future trends in the field of extreme weather. Publications published from 1980 to 2019 were identified and retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection databases by using keywords on May 5, 2020. Excel 2019, VOSviewer, R, and CiteSpace were used for scientific analysis. The results showed that (1) the number of publications on extreme weather research has rapidly increased and expanded continually, shifting from core disciplines to interdisciplinary fields; (2) the International Journal of Climatology was the most productive journal, and climate and environment were the most popular subject categories. Most studies were carried out in the USA, China, Germany, and other nations, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most productive institution; (3) the main research topics were summarized as (a) climate change; (b) variability; (c) trends; (d) rainfall; (e) temperature; and (f) maximum. At the same time, (4) keyword bursts analysis showed that the domain focused on changes to atmospheric rivers, the impacts of global nitrogen content on extreme weather, and the relationship between water quality, soil moisture content, and extreme weather. Based on the in-depth analysis of extreme weather research, this paper developed a further understanding of the developments in this field over the past 39 years and also provided a reference for future research.


Assuntos
Clima Extremo , Bibliometria , Eficiência , Meteorologia , Publicações
9.
J Environ Manage ; 290: 112607, 2021 Jul 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33895450

RESUMO

Agriculture represents one of the most vulnerable sectors to extreme weather events that are projected to increase with climate change. Insurance has been advocated as a more efficient means to ensure financial security to farmers, than post-disaster aid for damages. A potential drawback of insurance however, is that unless carefully designed it could dis-incentivise farmers to engage in wider farm adaptation measures or lead to more risk-taking behaviour. This paper analyses the attractiveness of publicly-backed climate risk insurance offerings to farmers and explores their preferences for elements of insurance schemes that do not negatively affect incentives for wider farm adaptation. Specifically, a discrete choice experiment is used to reveal Irish farmers' preferences for multi-annual insurance contracts and weather-indexed versus traditional indemnity insurance and cost. Results indicate that a majority of farmers are willing to buy publicly-backed insurance for protection from extreme weather events. Younger farmers, farmers who currently have farm insurance, farmers from certain geographical locations and farmers who have been previously affected by extreme weather events are more likely to buy insurance. With respect to the design of insurance schemes, farmers prefer multi-annual coverage versus annual renewal. They also prefer indexed-insurance and have a strong preference for cheaper coverage. Despite the important role that insurance could play in protecting farms financially from damage caused by extreme weather events, few studies have examined preference for weather-indexed insurance within a European context. New evidence on farmer preferences and intended behaviours is therefore critical to inform policy in this area.


Assuntos
Clima Extremo , Seguro , Agricultura , Mudança Climática , Fazendeiros , Fazendas , Humanos , Tempo (Meteorologia)
10.
Sci Total Environ ; 784: 147118, 2021 Aug 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33901952

RESUMO

Extreme weather events (EWEs) may significantly increase pathogenic contamination of private (unregulated) groundwater supplies. However, due to the paucity of protective guidance, private well users may be ill-equipped to undertake adaptive actions. With rising instances of waterborne illness documented in groundwater-dependent, developed regions such as the Republic of Ireland, a better understanding of well user risk perceptions pertaining to EWEs is required to establish appropriate educational interventions. To this end, the current study employed an online and physical questionnaire to identify current risk perceptions and correspondent predictors among Irish private well users concerning extreme weather. Respondents were elicited via purposive sampling, with 515 private well users elucidating perceived supply contamination risk in the wake of five EWEs between the years 2013-2018 including drought and pluvial flooding. A novel scoring protocol was devised to quantify overall risk perception (i.e. perceived likelihood, severity and consequences) of extreme weather impacts. Overall risk perception of EWEs was found to demonstrate a significant relationship with gender (p = 0.017) and event experience (p < 0.001), with female respondents and those reporting prior event experience exhibiting higher median risk perception scores. Risk perception was additionally mediated by perceived self-efficacy in undertaking supply maintenance (p = 0.001), as well users citing confidence in ability scored significantly lower than those citing no confidence. Two-step cluster analysis identified three distinct respondent subsets based on risk perception of EWEs (high, moderate and low perception), with female respondents and those with a third-level education significantly more likely to fall within the high perception cluster. Study findings affirm that certain demographic, experiential and cognitive factors exert a significant influence on private well user risk perceptions of EWE impacts and highlight potential focal points for future educational interventions seeking to reduce the risk of human infection associated with groundwater and extreme weather.


Assuntos
Clima Extremo , Água Subterrânea , Animais , Mudança Climática , Cognição , Demografia , Feminino , Humanos , Irlanda , Percepção , Ovinos , Abastecimento de Água , Tempo (Meteorologia)
11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33801407

RESUMO

Extreme weather events (EWE) are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, leaving coastal regions exposed to higher risks. South Florida has the highest HIV infection rate in the United States, and disruptions in clinic utilization due to extreme weather conditions could affect adherence to treatment and increase community transmission. The objective of this study was to identify the association between EWE and HIV-clinic attendance rates at a large academic medical system serving the Miami-Dade communities. The following methods were utilized: (1) Extreme heat index (EHI) and extreme precipitation (EP) were identified using daily observations from 1990-2019 that were collected at the Miami International Airport weather station located 3.6 miles from the studied HIV clinics. Data on hurricanes, coastal storms and flooding were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storms Database (NOAA) for Miami-Dade County. (2) An all-HIV clinic registry identified scheduled daily visits during the study period (hurricane seasons from 2017-2019). (3) Daily weather data were linked to the all-HIV clinic registry, where patients' 'no-show' status was the variable of interest. (4) A time-stratified, case crossover model was used to estimate the relative risk of no-show on days with a high heat index, precipitation, and/or an extreme natural event. A total of 26,444 scheduled visits were analyzed during the 383-day study period. A steady increase in the relative risk of 'no-show' was observed in successive categories, with a 14% increase observed on days when the heat index was extreme compared to days with a relatively low EHI, 13% on days with EP compared to days with no EP, and 10% higher on days with a reported extreme weather event compared to days without such incident. This study represents a novel approach to improving local understanding of the impacts of EWE on the HIV-population's utilization of healthcare, particularly when the frequency and intensity of EWE is expected to increase and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. More studies are needed to understand the impact of EWE on routine outpatient settings.


Assuntos
Clima Extremo , Infecções por HIV , Mudança Climática , Atenção à Saúde , Florida/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Tempo (Meteorologia)
12.
Dev Med Child Neurol ; 63(7): 785-790, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33720406

RESUMO

Extreme weather events (EWEs) are increasing in frequency and severity as the planet continues to become warmer. Resulting disasters have the potential to wreak havoc on the economy, infrastructure, family unit, and human health. Global estimates project that children will be disproportionately impacted by the changing climate - shouldering 88% of the related burdens. Exposure to EWEs in childhood is traumatic, with ramifications for mental health specifically. Symptoms of posttraumatic stress, depression, and anxiety have all been associated with childhood EWE exposure and have the potential to persist under certain circumstances. Conversely, many childhood survivors of EWE also demonstrate resilience and experience only transient symptoms. While the majority of studies are focused on the effects resulting from one specific type of disaster (hurricanes), we have synthesized the literature across the various types of EWEs. We describe psychological symptoms and behavior, the potential for long-term effects, and potential protective factors and risk factors. What this paper adds Climate change-related phenomena such as extreme weather events (EWEs) have the potential to impact mood and behavior in children. Posttraumatic stress (PTS) is the most common mental health consequence in child survivors of EWEs. PTS is often comorbid with depression and/or anxiety in this group.


Assuntos
Afeto/fisiologia , Comportamento Infantil/psicologia , Clima Extremo , Saúde Mental , Resiliência Psicológica , Criança , Humanos
13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33652832

RESUMO

The current increase and severity of the natural disasters whose effects on the public health are likely to be even more extreme and complex, requires enhancing and developing the disaster preparedness on the population level. In order to be able to do so, it is inevitable and determinative to know the factors that affect people's preparedness on the population level. Therefore, the objective of this article is to present the results from assessing the factors related to the population preparedness for the disasters on a sample of citizens living from the Slovak Republic. Our research is based on the exploration of the questionnaire survey' results aimed at investigating the preparedness and preventive proactive behaviour of the population against the disasters. The search for the initiators of such a behaviour and assessment of the influence of various aspects (e.g., the respondents' experience with disasters, their vulnerability to disasters, the risk awareness, the perception of the disaster risks in the changing environment, etc.) on the respondents' behaviour against disasters is the main part of the article and is supported by the statistical analysis. The results of the survey suggest that the disaster risk awareness and overall disaster preparedness level is rather poor and the population is inactive. The proactive behaviour of the respondents against the disasters is partially affected by some of their personality and socio-economic characteristics, especially the younger respondents currently incline more to adopting the protective measures. In addition, other aspects, e.g., the negative experience with the disasters in the past influence the preparedness. However, the impacts must have been relatively serious for the proactive behaviour to be influenced. The influences of other aspects as well as the possible methods for improving the disaster preparedness and the possibilities of increasing the resilience of the population as a whole are also discussed in this article.


Assuntos
Planejamento em Desastres , Desastres , Clima Extremo , Desastres Naturais , Humanos , Eslováquia
14.
Environ Res ; 196: 110900, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33636184

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown associations between local weather factors and dengue incidence in tropical and subtropical regions. However, spatial variability in those associations remains unclear and evidence is scarce regarding the effects of weather extremes. OBJECTIVES: We examined spatial variability in the effects of various weather conditions on the unprecedented dengue outbreak in Guangdong province of China in 2014 and explored how city characteristics modify weather-related risk. METHODS: A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was used to examine the overall and city-specific associations of dengue incidence with weather conditions including (1) average temperature, temperature variation, and average rainfall; and (2) weather extremes including numbers of days of extremely high temperature and high rainfall (both used 95th percentile as the cut-off). This model was run for cumulative dengue cases during five months from July to November (accounting for 99.8% of all dengue cases). A further analysis based on spatial variability was used to validate the modification effects by economic, demographic and environmental factors. RESULTS: We found a positive association of dengue incidence with average temperature in seven cities (relative risk (RR) range: 1.032 to 1.153), a positive association with average rainfall in seven cities (RR range: 1.237 to 1.974), and a negative association with temperature variation in four cities (RR range: 0.315 to 0.593). There was an overall positive association of dengue incidence with extremely high temperature (RR:1.054, 95% credible interval (CI): 1.016 to 1.094), without evidence of variation across cities, and an overall positive association of dengue with extremely high rainfall (RR:1.505, 95% CI: 1.096 to 2.080), with seven regions having stronger associations (RR range: 1.237 to 1.418). Greater effects of weather conditions appeared to occur in cities with higher economic level, lower green space coverage and lower elevation. CONCLUSIONS: Spatially varied effects of weather conditions on dengue outbreaks necessitate area-specific dengue prevention and control measures. Extremes of temperature and rainfall have strong and positive associations with dengue outbreaks.


Assuntos
Dengue , Clima Extremo , Teorema de Bayes , China/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Incidência , Tempo (Meteorologia)
15.
Int J Biometeorol ; 65(7): 1033-1042, 2021 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33598765

RESUMO

Dengue transmission is climate-sensitive and permissive conditions regularly cause large outbreaks in Asia-Pacific area. As climate change progresses, extreme weather events such as heatwaves and unusually high rainfall are predicted more intense and frequent, but their impacts on dengue outbreaks remain unclear so far. This paper aimed to investigate the relationship between extreme weather events (i.e., heatwaves, extremely high rainfall and extremely high humidity) and dengue outbreaks in China. We obtained daily number of locally acquired dengue cases and weather factors for Guangzhou, China, for the period 2006-2015. The definition of dengue outbreaks was based on daily number of locally acquired cases above the threshold (i.e., mean + 2SD of daily distribution of dengue cases during peaking period). Heatwave was defined as ≥2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile, and extreme rainfall and humidity defined as daily values ≥95th percentile during 2006-2015. A generalized additive model was used to examine the associations between extreme weather events and dengue outbreaks. Results showed that all three extreme weather events were associated with increased risk of dengue outbreaks, with a risk increase of 115-251% around 6 weeks after heatwaves, 173-258% around 6-13 weeks after extremely high rainfall, and 572-587% around 6-13 weeks after extremely high humidity. Each extreme weather event also had good capacity in predicting dengue outbreaks, with the model's sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve all exceeding 86%. This study found that heatwaves, extremely high rainfall, and extremely high humidity could act as potential drivers of dengue outbreaks.


Assuntos
Dengue , Clima Extremo , Ásia , China/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Dinâmica não Linear , Tempo (Meteorologia)
17.
Annu Rev Public Health ; 42: 293-315, 2021 04 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33406378

RESUMO

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, cyclones, and floods, are an expression of climate variability. These events and events influenced by climate change, such as wildfires, continue to cause significant human morbidity and mortality and adversely affect mental health and well-being. Although adverse health impacts from extreme events declined over the past few decades, climate change and more people moving into harm's way could alter this trend. Long-term changes to Earth's energy balance are increasing the frequency and intensity of many extreme events and the probability of compound events, with trends projected to accelerate under certain greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While most of these events cannot be completely avoided, many of the health risks could be prevented through building climate-resilient health systems with improved risk reduction, preparation, response, and recovery. Conducting vulnerability and adaptation assessments and developing health system adaptation plans can identify priority actions to effectively reduce risks, such as disaster risk management and more resilient infrastructure. The risks are urgent, so action is needed now.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Atenção à Saúde/organização & administração , Clima Extremo , Saúde da População , Saúde Global , Humanos
18.
Nat Microbiol ; 6(4): 479-488, 2021 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33510474

RESUMO

Small lakes and ponds occupy an enormous surface area of inland freshwater and represent an important terrestrial-water interface. Disturbances caused by extreme weather events can have substantial effects on these ecosystems. Here, we analysed the dynamics of nutrients and the entire plankton community in two flood events and afterwards, when quasi-stable conditions were established, to investigate the effect of such disturbances on a small forest pond. We show that floodings result in repeated washout of resident organisms and hundredfold increases in nutrient load. Despite this, the microbial community recovers to a predisturbance state within two weeks of flooding through four well-defined succession phases. Reassembly of phytoplankton and especially zooplankton takes up to two times longer and features repetitive and adaptive patterns. Release of dissolved nutrients from the pond is associated with inflow rates and community recovery, and returns to predisturbance levels before microbial compositions recover. Our findings shed light on the mechanisms underlying functional resilience of small waterbodies and are relevant to global change-induced increases in weather extremes.


Assuntos
Clima Extremo , Água Doce/microbiologia , Microbiota , Chuva , Animais , Inundações , Cadeia Alimentar , Florestas , Água Doce/química , Nutrientes/análise , Plâncton/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Lagoas/química , Lagoas/microbiologia , Rios/química , Rios/microbiologia
19.
Med Klin Intensivmed Notfmed ; 116(2): 154-160, 2021 Mar.
Artigo em Alemão | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31802135

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Due to global warming a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves have been forecast. In the context of the overall increasing number of emergency service calls, weather-induced effects on the number of calls are highly relevant. We evaluated the influence of extreme temperatures on emergency medical services. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was conducted in Bochum, Germany. The authors examined the data from 16,767 emergency calls. In addition, the daily updated temperature data were collected for each emergency doctor call. Data were collected from 01 January 2014 until 31 December 2015. The primary question was the influence of extremes of the perceived temperature (PT; on the day of the call and the three previous days) on the diagnosis group of cardiovascular diseases. A secondary question was the influence of extremes of the temperature parameters (air temperature, PT, physiological equivalent temperature [PET]) on the day of call and the three previous days. RESULTS: A total of 16,767 calls were assessed. The threshold values (upper and lower 5%) were -8.7 and 32.5 °C for PT and -0.7 and 26.7 °C for air temperature. Examination of the PT indicated a significantly increased rate of calls for cold spells on the day of the call (RR = 1.14; p = 0.033) as well as a lag effect of 3 days (RR = 1.1; p = 0.049). CONCLUSION: The present study shows that during cold spells there is an increased rate of calls for cardiovascular diseases. This effect is not only observable on the extreme day itself but also 3 days later.


Assuntos
Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Clima Extremo , Temperatura Baixa , Alemanha , Temperatura Alta , Humanos
20.
Environ Res ; 196: 110417, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33217433

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Enteric Fever (EF) affects over 14.5 million people every year globally, with India accounting for the largest share of this burden. The water-borne nature of the disease makes it prone to be influenced as much by unsanitary living conditions as by climatic factors. The detection and quantification of the climatic effect can lead to improved public health measures which would in turn reduce this burden. METHODOLOGY: We obtained a list of monthly Widal positive EF cases from 1995 to 2017 from Ahmedabad and Surat Municipalities. We obtained population data, daily weather data, and Oceanic Niño Index values from appropriate sources. We quantified the association between extreme weather events, phases of El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and incidence of EF. RESULTS: Both cities showed a seasonal pattern of EF, with cases peaking in early monsoon. Risk of EF was affected equally in both cities by the monsoon season -- Ahmedabad (35%) and Surat (34%). Extreme precipitation was associated with 5% increase in EF in Ahmedabad but not in Surat. Similarly, phases of ENSO had opposite effects on EF across the two cities. In Ahmedabad, strong El Niño months were associated with 64% increase in EF risk while strong La Niña months with a 41% reduction in risk. In Surat, strong El Niño was associated with 25% reduction in risk while moderate La Niña with 21% increase in risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that the risk of EF incidence in Gujarat is highly variable, even between the two cities only 260 kms apart. In addition to improvements in water supply and sewage systems, preventive public health measures should incorporate variability in risk across season and phases of ENSO. Further studies are needed to characterize nationwide heterogeneity in climate-mediated risk, and to identify most vulnerable populations that can benefit through early warning systems.


Assuntos
Clima Extremo , Febre Tifoide , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Humanos , Incidência , Índia/epidemiologia , Tempo (Meteorologia)
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