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2.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 3174, 2021 02 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33542386

RESUMO

Face masks are an important component in controlling COVID-19, and policy orders to wear masks are common. However, behavioral responses are seldom additive, and exchanging one protective behavior for another could undermine the COVID-19 policy response. We use SafeGraph smart device location data and variation in the date that US states and counties issued face mask mandates as a set of natural experiments to investigate risk compensation behavior. We compare time at home and the number of visits to public locations before and after face mask orders conditional on multiple statistical controls. We find that face mask orders lead to risk compensation behavior. Americans subject to the mask orders spend 11-24 fewer minutes at home on average and increase visits to some commercial locations-most notably restaurants, which are a high-risk location. It is unclear if this would lead to a net increase or decrease in transmission. However, it is clear that mask orders would be an important part of an economic recovery if people otherwise overestimate the risk of visiting public places.


Assuntos
/prevenção & controle , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Máscaras/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Restaurantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Comportamento Social , Estados Unidos
3.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(1)2021 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33495285

RESUMO

The COVID-19 epidemic is the latest evidence of critical gaps in our collective ability to monitor country-level preparedness for health emergencies. The global frameworks that exist to strengthen core public health capacities lack coverage of several preparedness domains and do not provide mechanisms to interface with local intelligence. We designed and piloted a process, in collaboration with three National Public Health Institutes (NPHIs) in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Pakistan, to identify potential preparedness indicators that exist in a myriad of frameworks and tools in varying local institutions. Following a desk-based systematic search and expert consultations, indicators were extracted from existing national and subnational health security-relevant frameworks and prioritised in a multi-stakeholder two-round Delphi process. Eighty-six indicators in Ethiopia, 87 indicators in Nigeria and 51 indicators in Pakistan were assessed to be valid, relevant and feasible. From these, 14-16 indicators were prioritised in each of the three countries for consideration in monitoring and evaluation tools. Priority indicators consistently included private sector metrics, subnational capacities, availability and capacity for electronic surveillance, measures of timeliness for routine reporting, data quality scores and data related to internally displaced persons and returnees. NPHIs play an increasingly central role in health security and must have access to data needed to identify and respond rapidly to public health threats. Collecting and collating local sources of information may prove essential to addressing gaps; it is a necessary step towards improving preparedness and strengthening international health regulations compliance.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , /epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/organização & administração , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/normas , Etiópia , Política de Saúde , Humanos , Nigéria , Paquistão
4.
Am J Public Health ; 111(3): 416-422, 2021 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33476227

RESUMO

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, many state governors faced an increasing number of acts of defiance as well as political and legal challenges to their public health emergency orders. Less well studied are the similar acts of protest that occurred during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, when residents, business owners, clergy, and even local politicians grew increasingly restless by the ongoing public health measures, defied public health edicts, and agitated to have them rescinded. We explore several of the themes that emerged during the late fall of 1918 and conclude that, although the nation seems to be following the same path as it did in 1918, the motivations for pushback to the 2020 pandemic are decidedly more political than they were a century ago.


Assuntos
/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Influenza Pandêmica, 1918-1919/história , Política , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Máscaras , Pandemias , Religião , Restaurantes/legislação & jurisprudência , Instituições Acadêmicas/legislação & jurisprudência , Estados Unidos
5.
Leg Med (Tokyo) ; 48: 101832, 2021 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33373948

RESUMO

Along with rising levels of the infection around the world, the state of emergency prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic has also been having a heavy legal impact. The situation is posing important criminal challenges, as well as an ocean of social and public health issues around the world. It has not only directly affected constitutionally-guaranteed rights and individual freedoms, but also brought to the fore certain types of criminal offence that had previously been of little practical importance, such as the crime of 'maliciously or unintentionally causing an epidemic'. Different countries and states have introduced policies to manage the emergency at different times and in different ways. The measures adopted have been the object of much criticism, also raising questions of constitutional legitimacy in countries like Italy. The present contribution begins with a brief outline of the different international scenarios. Then we examine some of the medicolegal aspects of criminal offences previously envisaged and newly introduced since the arrival of the pandemic. We suggest the need for a sort of 'code of public health laws for the time of coronavirus', that could also be applied to other public health emergencies, pandemic or otherwise. The idea is to give operators in the sector and the general population the opportunity to identify clear and simple rules to follow in the current complex global situation. We need a new, appropriate interpretation of the 'boundaries' of our individual rights in relation to the need to safeguard the wider community and its more vulnerable members.


Assuntos
/epidemiologia , Direitos Civis/legislação & jurisprudência , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Crime/legislação & jurisprudência , Regulamentação Governamental , Política de Saúde/legislação & jurisprudência , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Responsabilidade Legal , Pandemias
8.
Viruses ; 12(12)2020 12 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33321892

RESUMO

Previous work has indicated that canine parvovirus (CPV) prevalence in the Central Texas region may follow yearly, periodic patterns. The peak in CPV infection rates occurs during the summer months of May and June, marking a distinct "CPV season". We hypothesized that human activity contributes to these seasonal changes in CPV infections. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in drastic changes in human behavior which happened to synchronize with the CPV season in Central Texas, providing a unique opportunity with which to assess whether these society-level behavioral changes result in appreciable changes in CPV patient populations in the largest CPV treatment facility in Texas. In this work, we examine the population of CPV-infected patients at a large, dedicated CPV treatment clinic in Texas (having treated more than 5000 CPV-positive dogs in the last decade) and demonstrate that societal-behavioral changes due to COVID-19 were associated with a drastic reduction in CPV infections. This reduction occurred precisely when CPV season would typically begin, during the period immediately following state-wide "reopening" of business and facilities, resulting in a change in the typical CPV season when compared with previous years. These results provide evidence that changes in human activity may, in some way, contribute to changes in rates of CPV infection in the Central Texas region.


Assuntos
/epidemiologia , Doenças do Cão/epidemiologia , Infecções por Parvoviridae/veterinária , Animais , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Doenças do Cão/terapia , Cães , Hospitais Veterinários , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Infecções por Parvoviridae/epidemiologia , Infecções por Parvoviridae/terapia , Parvovirus Canino/patogenicidade , Prevalência , Política Pública , Texas/epidemiologia
9.
Chaos ; 30(10): 101103, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33138460

RESUMO

Although there are various models of epidemic diseases, there are a few individual-based models that can guide susceptible individuals on how they should behave in a pandemic without its appropriate treatment. Such a model would be ideal for the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Thus, here, we propose a topological model of an epidemic disease, which can take into account various types of interventions through a time-dependent contact network. Based on this model, we show that there is a maximum allowed number of persons one can see each day for each person so that we can suppress the epidemic spread. Reducing the number of persons to see for the hub persons is a key countermeasure for the current COVID-19 pandemic.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Suscetibilidade a Doenças/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Algoritmos , Betacoronavirus , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Simulação por Computador , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Probabilidade , Saúde Pública
11.
Math Biosci Eng ; 17(5): 4875-4890, 2020 07 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33120532

RESUMO

At the beginning of 2020, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) became an outbreak in China. On January 23, China raised its national public health response to the highest level. As part of the emergency response, a series of public social distancing interventions were implemented to reduce the transmission rate of COVID-19. In this article, we explored the feasibility of using mobile terminal positioning data to study the impact of some nonpharmaceutical public health interventions implemented by China. First, this article introduced a hybrid method for measuring the number of people in public places based on anonymized mobile terminal positioning data. Additionally, the difference-in-difference (DID) model was used to estimate the effect of the interventions on reducing public gatherings in different provinces and during different stages. The data-driven experimental results showed that the interventions that China implemented reduced the number of people in public places by approximately 60% between January 24 and February 28. Among the 31 provinces in the Chinese mainland, some provinces, such as Tianjin and Chongqing, were more affected by the interventions, while other provinces, such as Gansu, were less affected. In terms of the stages, the phase with the greatest intervention effect was from February 3 to 14, during which the number of daily confirmed cases in China showed a turning point. In conclusion, the interventions significantly reduced public gatherings, and the effects of interventions varied with provinces and time.


Assuntos
Telefone Celular , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Política Pública , Isolamento Social , Betacoronavirus , China/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Coleta de Dados , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Viagem
12.
Math Biosci Eng ; 17(5): 5085-5098, 2020 07 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33120541

RESUMO

The COVID-19 outbreak, designated a "pandemic" by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020, has spread worldwide rapidly. Each country implemented prevention and control strategies, mainly classified as SARS LCS (SARS-like containment strategy) or PAIN LMS (pandemic influenza-like mitigation strategy). The reasons for variation in each strategy's efficacy in controlling COVID-19 epidemics were unclear and are investigated in this paper. On the basis of the daily number of confirmed local (imported) cases and onset-to-confirmation distributions for local cases, we initially estimated the daily number of local (imported) illness onsets by a deconvolution method for mainland China, South Korea, Japan and Spain, and then estimated the effective reproduction numbers Rt by using a Bayesian method for each of the four countries. China and South Korea adopted a strict SARS LCS, to completely block the spread via lockdown, strict travel restrictions and by detection and isolation of patients, which led to persistent declines in effective reproduction numbers. In contrast, Japan and Spain adopted a typical PAIN LMS to mitigate the spread via maintaining social distance, self-quarantine and isolation etc., which reduced the Rt values but with oscillations around 1. The finding suggests that governments may need to consider multiple factors such as quantities of medical resources, the likely extent of the public's compliance to different intensities of intervention measures, and the economic situation to design the most appropriate policies to fight COVID-19 epidemics.


Assuntos
Número Básico de Reprodução , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Teorema de Bayes , Betacoronavirus , China/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologia , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias , Distribuição de Poisson , Quarentena , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Isolamento Social , Espanha/epidemiologia
13.
Math Biosci Eng ; 17(5): 5961-5986, 2020 09 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33120585

RESUMO

An outbreak of rapidly spreading coronavirus established human to human transmission and now became a pandemic across the world. The new confirmed cases of infected individuals of COVID-19 are increasing day by day. Therefore, the prediction of infected individuals has become of utmost important for health care arrangements and to control the spread of COVID-19. In this study, we propose a compartmental epidemic model with intervention strategies such as lockdown, quarantine, and hospitalization. We compute the basic reproduction number (R0), which plays a vital role in mathematical epidemiology. Based on R0, it is revealed that the system has two equilibrium, namely disease-free and endemic. We also demonstrate the non-negativity and boundedness of the solutions, local and global stability of equilibria, transcritical bifurcation to analyze its epidemiological relevance. Furthermore, to validate our system, we fit the cumulative and new daily cases in India. We estimate the model parameters and predict the near future scenario of the disease. The global sensitivity analysis has also been performed to observe the impact of different parameters on R0. We also investigate the dynamics of disease in respect of different situations of lockdown, e.g., complete lockdown, partial lockdown, and no lockdown. Our analysis concludes that if there is partial or no lockdown case, then endemic level would be high. Along with this, the high transmission rate ensures higher level of endemicity. From the short time prediction, we predict that India may face a crucial phase (approx 6000000 infected individuals within 140 days) in near future due to COVID-19. Finally, numerical results show that COVID-19 may be controllable by reducing the contacts and increasing the efficacy of lockdown.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Quarentena , Isolamento Social , Algoritmos , Número Básico de Reprodução , Betacoronavirus , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Humanos , Índia/epidemiologia , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias , Política Pública
14.
Math Biosci Eng ; 17(5): 6240-6258, 2020 09 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33120597

RESUMO

SARS-CoV-2 has now infected 15 million people and produced more than six hundred thousand deaths around the world. Due to high transmission levels, many governments implemented social distancing and confinement measures with different levels of required compliance to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic. In several countries, these measures were effective, and it was possible to flatten the epidemic curve and control it. In others, this objective was not or has not been achieved. In far too many cities around the world, rebounds of the epidemic are occurring or, in others, plateaulike states have appeared, where high incidence rates remain constant for relatively long periods of time. Nonetheless, faced with the challenge of urgent social need to reactivate their economies, many countries have decided to lift mitigation measures at times of high incidence. In this paper, we use a mathematical model to characterize the impact of short duration transmission events within the confinement period previous but close to the epidemic peak. The model also describes the possible consequences on the disease dynamics after mitigation measures are lifted. We use Mexico City as a case study. The results show that events of high mobility may produce either a later higher peak, a long plateau with relatively constant but high incidence or the same peak as in the original baseline epidemic curve, but with a post-peak interval of slower decay. Finally, we also show the importance of carefully timing the lifting of mitigation measures. If this occurs during a period of high incidence, then the disease transmission will rapidly increase, unless the effective contact rate keeps decreasing, which will be very difficult to achieve once the population is released.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Algoritmos , Betacoronavirus , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Busca de Comunicante , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Humanos , México/epidemiologia , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias , Probabilidade , Política Pública , Isolamento Social
17.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 5152, 2020 10 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33056983

RESUMO

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments have taken drastic measures to avoid an overflow of intensive care units. Accurate metrics of disease spread are critical for the reopening strategies. Here, we show that self-reports of smell/taste changes are more closely associated with hospital overload and are earlier markers of the spread of infection of SARS-CoV-2 than current governmental indicators. We also report a decrease in self-reports of new onset smell/taste changes as early as 5 days after lockdown enforcement. Cross-country comparisons demonstrate that countries that adopted the most stringent lockdown measures had faster declines in new reports of smell/taste changes following lockdown than a country that adopted less stringent lockdown measures. We propose that an increase in the incidence of sudden smell and taste change in the general population may be used as an indicator of COVID-19 spread in the population.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Transtornos do Olfato/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Distúrbios do Paladar/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/normas , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , França/epidemiologia , Hospitalização , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Autorrelato , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
19.
Lancet ; 396(10261): 1525-1534, 2020 11 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32979936

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global crisis. Many countries have implemented restrictions on population movement to slow the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and prevent health systems from becoming overwhelmed; some have instituted full or partial lockdowns. However, lockdowns and other extreme restrictions cannot be sustained for the long term in the hope that there will be an effective vaccine or treatment for COVID-19. Governments worldwide now face the common challenge of easing lockdowns and restrictions while balancing various health, social, and economic concerns. To facilitate cross-country learning, this Health Policy paper uses an adapted framework to examine the approaches taken by nine high-income countries and regions that have started to ease COVID-19 restrictions: five in the Asia Pacific region (ie, Hong Kong [Special Administrative Region], Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea) and four in Europe (ie, Germany, Norway, Spain, and the UK). This comparative analysis presents important lessons to be learnt from the experiences of these countries and regions. Although the future of the virus is unknown at present, countries should continue to share their experiences, shield populations who are at risk, and suppress transmission to save lives.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Política de Saúde , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Comércio , Infecções por Coronavirus/economia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente) , Extremo Oriente , Humanos , Nova Zelândia , Pandemias/economia , Pneumonia Viral/economia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia
20.
Ann Glob Health ; 86(1): 119, 2020 09 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32983915

RESUMO

Background: Disease control involves multiple actions overtime to halt the spread of COVID-19. The role of a country's governance in slowing the spread of COVID-19 has not yet been well investigated. Objective: This study aims to investigate the association between governance and the trend of COVID-19 incidence in countries with the highest prevalence. We hypothesized that countries with better governance are more likely to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 than countries with worse governance. Methods: We analyzed 62 most prevalent countries with at least 10,000 accumulative confirmed cases from January 22 to June 15, 2020. Countries were further grouped into three different levels of governance (25 better governance, 24 fair governance, and 13 worse governance), identified outbreak and mitigation periods using the joinpoint regression model, and compared the number of days and average daily percent change in incidence in two periods by governance level using the one-way analysis of variance. Findings: The average outbreak period in the 62 countries lasted 84.0 days. Sixty percent of countries (N = 37) had experienced outbreak periods, followed by a mitigation period. In contrast, the rest forty percent of countries (N = 25) still had a rising trend. In the outbreak period, better governance countries had a more rapid increase but a shorter outbreak period (71.2 days) than countries with fair (93.5 days) and worse (90.8 days) governance. Most countries with better governance (84.0%) revealed a declining trend in COVID-19 incidence, while such a trend was less than half of fair and worse governance countries (38.5%-41.7%). Conclusions: Countries with better governance are more resilient during the COVID-19 crisis. While the mitigation of COVID-19 is observed in most better governance countries, the incidence of COVID-19 is still surging in most fair and worse governance countries, and the possibility of a recurring epidemic of COVID-19 in countries cannot be ignored.


Assuntos
Gestão de Mudança , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Infecções por Coronavirus , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral , Análise de Variância , Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Defesa Civil/métodos , Defesa Civil/organização & administração , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/legislação & jurisprudência , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/organização & administração , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Incidência , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Prevalência , Resiliência Psicológica , Controle Social Formal
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