Mathematical model estimation of dengue fever transmission risk from Southeast and South Asia into Japan between 2016 and 2018.

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is a viral infection transmitted to humans through the bite of a mosquito infected with the dengue virus. Dengue is one of the most common infectious diseases in the world, and its incidence is rapidly increasing. We estimated the risk of dengue importation from endemic countries to Japan and the transmission risk within Japan using data collected between 2016 and 2018. METHODS: We conducted simulations that included the number of reported dengue infections and travelers per month in ten countries in Southeast and South Asia. RESULTS: The estimated importation risks for Japanese returnees and international travelers from each of the ten endemic countries was approximately 1.0 every month from 2016 to 2018. The autochthonous transmission risk in Japan from any target country was 1.0 from June to September yearly. The estimated number of Japanese dengue cases returning to Japan is approximately 25 times higher than that of imported cases reported in Japan. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of dengue importation into Japan can be sufficiently high. Attention should be paid to autochthonous transmission spread between June and September when mosquitoes are active in Japan. Estimates of seasonal risk variation from each dengue virus-endemic country can be used to inform preventive and control measures for dengue in Japan.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue cases in Malaysia.

Background: Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the transmission dynamics and distribution of dengue. Therefore, this study aims to describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the geographic and demographic distribution of dengue incidence in Malaysia. Methods: This study analyzed dengue cases from January 2014 to December 2021 and COVID-19 confirmed cases from January 2020 to December 2021 which was divided into the pre (2014 to 2019) and during COVID-19 pandemic (2020 to 2021) phases. The average annual dengue case incidence for geographical and demographic subgroups were calculated and compared between the pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic phases. In addition, Spearman rank correlation was performed to determine the correlation between weekly dengue and COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic phase. Results: Dengue trends in Malaysia showed a 4-year cyclical trend with dengue case incidence peaking in 2015 and 2019 and subsequently decreasing in the following years. Reductions of 44.0% in average dengue cases during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase was observed at the national level. Higher dengue cases were reported among males, individuals aged 20-34 years, and Malaysians across both phases. Weekly dengue cases were significantly correlated (ρ = -0.901) with COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion: There was a reduction in dengue incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase. Significant reductions were observed across all demographic groups except for the older population (>75 years) across the two phases.

Dengue in Timor-Leste during the COVID-19 phenomenon.

Dengue is a significant public health problem in mostly tropical countries, including Timor-Leste. Dengue continues to draw attention from the health sector during the COVID-19 phenomenon. Therefore, the goal of this study is to evaluate the dengue incidence rate in comparison with the COVID-19 cumulative number and associated dengue risk factors, including the fatality rate of dengue infection in each municipality during the COVID-19 phenomenon in Timor-Leste, by applying the data processing program in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). A descriptive study using GIS was performed to provide a spatial-temporal mapping of dengue cases. Secondary data, which were sourced from the Department of Health Statistics Information under the Ministry of Health Timor-Leste, were collected for the period during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020-2021. These data were grounded at the municipal (province) level. Quantum GIS and Microsoft Excel were used to analyze the data. During the COVID-19 outbreak (2020-2021), dengue spread nationwide. It was found that there was an increase in municipalities with high dengue cases and cumulative COVID-19 numbers. The high number of dengue cases associated with the COVID-19 cumulative number found in municipalities with an urban characteristic and in terms of severity, dengue fever (DF) is most commonly reported with a total of 1,556 cases and is followed by dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Most cases were reported in the months of the monsoon season, such as December, January, and March. Dengue GIS mapping helps understand the disease's presence and dynamic nature over time.

Travel-Associated Dengue Cases - United States, 2010-2021.

Dengue, the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, can be fatal without appropriate treatment. Among 7,528 confirmed or probable travel-associated U.S. dengue cases reported during 2010-2021, one in five (1,474, 20%) was reported in 2019. This is 168% higher than the annual average number of cases reported during 2010-2018 and 2020-2021 (approximately 550 per year) and 61% higher than the 913 cases reported in 2016, the second highest year on record. The number of cases as a fraction of air traffic volume to international destinations outside North America or Europe was also highest in 2019, with 41.9 cases per million trips, compared with 21.0 per million in other years during 2010-2021. This report compares the number and characteristics of travel-associated dengue cases reported to national surveillance in the United States in 2019 with cases reported during 2010-2018 and 2020-2021. Areas with conditions suitable for dengue transmission as well as the population at risk for dengue are expected to increase, placing U.S. travelers at higher risk for infection. Health care providers should be aware that dengue is a common cause of fever in the returning traveler and be familiar with its signs and symptoms, testing, and management. Dengue vaccines are not currently recommended for U.S. travelers; therefore, persons should review areas of dengue risk and follow guidance for preventing mosquito bites.

Octadecadienoate derivatives from Michelia champaca seed extract as potential larvicide and pupicide against Dengue vector Aedes albopictus.

The present study was designed aiming at finding novel botanicals for controlling the vector population. Objective was to evaluate the larvicidal and pupicidal efficacies of crude and solvent extracts of Michelia champaca seed against the notorious dengue vector Aedes albopictus. 0.5% concentration of the crude extractive and 40 ppm concentration of ethyl acetate extractive were enough to execute 100% of larval mortality of all the instars after 72 h of exposure and the LC50 and LC90values (95% confidence level) of ethyl acetate extractive were 0.9880 ppm and 36.0491 ppm. In case of pupicidal bioassay, 100% mortality was observed at 200 ppm of ethyl acetate extract. Through TLC techniques, the bioactive compounds were isolated, which caused remarkable larval toxicity at 15 ppm concentration. Three-way factorial ANOVA analysis showed different concentrations, time intervals, and instars revealed a significant difference in larval death. FT-IR analysis revealed the presence several important functional groups. Presence of methyl 5,12-octadecadienoate and ethyl 9cis,11trans-octadecadienoate were ascertained by GC-MS analysis. The said bioactive compounds showed very low toxicity in non-target organisms such as damselfly (Ischnura sp.) and water bug (Diplonychus sp.) Thus, proclaiming the potentialities of Michelia champaca seed extracts as larvicidal and pupicidal agents against Ae. albopictus.

Direct mosquito feedings on dengue-2 virus-infected people reveal dynamics of human infectiousness.

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission from humans to mosquitoes is a poorly documented, but critical component of DENV epidemiology. Magnitude of viremia is the primary determinant of successful human-to-mosquito DENV transmission. People with the same level of viremia, however, can vary in their infectiousness to mosquitoes as a function of other factors that remain to be elucidated. Here, we report on a field-based study in the city of Iquitos, Peru, where we conducted direct mosquito feedings on people naturally infected with DENV and that experienced mild illness. We also enrolled people naturally infected with Zika virus (ZIKV) after the introduction of ZIKV in Iquitos during the study period. Of the 54 study participants involved in direct mosquito feedings, 43 were infected with DENV-2, two with DENV-3, and nine with ZIKV. Our analysis excluded participants whose viremia was detectable at enrollment but undetectable at the time of mosquito feeding, which was the case for all participants with DENV-3 and ZIKV infections. We analyzed the probability of onward transmission during 50 feeding events involving 27 participants infected with DENV-2 based on the presence of infectious virus in mosquito saliva 7-16 days post blood meal. Transmission probability was positively associated with the level of viremia and duration of extrinsic incubation in the mosquito. In addition, transmission probability was influenced by the day of illness in a non-monotonic fashion; i.e., transmission probability increased until 2 days after symptom onset and decreased thereafter. We conclude that mildly ill DENV-infected humans with similar levels of viremia during the first two days after symptom onset will be most infectious to mosquitoes on the second day of their illness. Quantifying variation within and between people in their contribution to DENV transmission is essential to better understand the biological determinants of human infectiousness, parametrize epidemiological models, and improve disease surveillance and prevention strategies.

Preliminary results on an autochthonous dengue outbreak in Lombardy Region, Italy, August 2023.

In August 2023, six locally acquired dengue virus 1 infections were detected in Lodi province, Lombardy Region, in northern Italy, where the vector Aedes albopictus is present. Four cases were hospitalised, none died. The viruses clustered with Peruvian and Brazilian strains collected between 2021 and 2023. This preliminary report highlights the importance of continued integrated surveillance of imported vector-borne virus infections and the potential for tropical disease outbreaks in highly populated regions of northern Italy where competent vectors are present.

Adipokine levels and their association with clinical disease severity in patients with dengue.

Adipokines have not been studied in acute dengue, despite their emerging role in inducing and regulating inflammation. Therefore, we sought to identify adipokine levels in patients with varying severities of acute dengue to understand their role in disease pathogenesis. We determined the levels of leptin, resistin, omentin, adiponectin, as well as IFNß, and NS1 using quantitative ELISA in patients with dengue fever (DF = 49) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF = 22) at admission (febrile phase) and at the time of discharge (recovery phase). The viral loads and serotypes of all samples were quantified using quantitative real-time RT-PCR. Resistin levels (p = 0.04) and omentin (p = 0.006) levels were significantly higher in patients who developed DHF. Omentin levels in the febrile phase also correlated with the AST (Spearman's r = 0.38, p = 0.001) and ALT levels (Spearman's r = 0.24, p = 0.04); as well as serum leptin levels with both AST (Spearman's r = 0.27, p = 0.02) and ALT (Spearman's r = 0.28, p = 0.02). Serum adiponectin levels in the febrile phase did not correlate with any of the other adipokines or with liver enzymes, but inversely correlated with CRP levels (Spearman's r = -0.31, p = 0.008). Although not significant (p = 0.14) serum IFNß levels were lower in the febrile phase in those who progressed to develop DHF (median 0, IQR 0 to 39.4 pg/ml), compared to those who had DF (median 37.1, IQR 0 to 65.6 pg.ml). The data suggest that adipokines are likely to play a role in the pathogenesis of dengue, which should be further explored for the potential to be used as prognostic markers and as therapeutic targets.

Dynamics analysis of a nonlocal diffusion dengue model.

Due to the unrestricted movement of humans over a wide area, it is important to understand how individuals move between non-adjacent locations in space. In this research, we introduce a nonlocal diffusion introduce for dengue, which is driven by integral operators. First, we use the semigroup theory and continuously Fréchet differentiable to demonstrate the existence, uniqueness, positivity and boundedness of the solution. Next, the global stability and uniform persistence of the system are proved by analyzing the eigenvalue problem of the nonlocal diffusion term. To achieve this, the Lyapunov function is derived and the comparison principle is applied. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to validate the results of the theorem, and it is revealed that controlling the disease's spread can be achieved by implementing measures to reduce the transmission of the virus through infected humans and mosquitoes.

Interactions of urbanisation, climate variability, and infectious disease dynamics: insights from the Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu.

Climate change and shifts in land use/land cover (LULC) are critical factors affecting the environmental, societal, and health landscapes, notably influencing the spread of infectious diseases. This study delves into the intricate relationships between climate change, LULC alterations, and the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne diseases in Coimbatore district, Tamil Nadu, India, between 1985 and 2015. The research utilised Landsat-4, Landsat-5, and Landsat-8 data to generate LULC maps, applying the maximum likelihood algorithm to highlight significant transitions over the years. This study revealed that built-up areas have increased by 67%, primarily at the expense of agricultural land, which was reduced by 51%. Temperature and rainfall data were obtained from APHRODITE Water Resources, and with a statistical analysis of the time series data revealed an annual average temperature increase of 1.8 °C and a minor but statistically significant rainfall increase during the study period. Disease data was obtained from multiple national health programmes, revealing an increasing trend in dengue and diarrhoeal diseases over the study period. In particular, dengue cases surged, correlating strongly with the increase in built-up areas and temperature. This research is instrumental for policy decisions in public health, urban planning, and climate change mitigation. Amidst limited research on the interconnections among infectious diseases, climate change, and LULC changes in India, our study serves as a significant precursor for future management strategies in Coimbatore and analogous regions.

Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis After Dengue Fever and Its Ocular Features.

This case report discusses a diagnosis of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis in a man aged 40 years with a history of dengue fever.

Quantifying the impact of Wolbachia releases on dengue infection in Townsville, Australia.

From October 2014 to February 2019, local authorities in Townsville, North Queensland, Australia continually introduced Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to control seasonal outbreaks of dengue infection. In this study, we develop a mathematical modelling framework to estimate the effectiveness of this intervention as well as the relative dengue transmission rates of Wolbachia-infected and wild-type mosquitoes. We find that the transmission rate of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is reduced approximately by a factor of 20 relative to the uninfected wild-type population. In addition, the Townsville Wolbachia release program led to a 65% reduction in predicted dengue incidence during the release period and over 95% reduction in the 24 months that followed. Finally, to investigate the potential impact of other Wolbachia release programs, we use our estimates of relative transmissibility to calculate the relationship between the reproductive number of dengue and the proportion of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in the vector population.

Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia.

The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.

Modelling the transmission of dengue, zika and chikungunya: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Aedes mosquitoes are the primary vectors for the spread of viruses like dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), all of which affect humans. Those diseases contribute to global public health issues because of their great dispersion in rural and urban areas. Mathematical and statistical models have become helpful in understanding these diseases' epidemiological dynamics. However, modelling the complexity of a real phenomenon, such as a viral disease, should consider several factors. This scoping review aims to document, identify and classify the most important factors as well as the modelling strategies for the spread of DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct searches in electronic bibliographic databases such as PubMed, MathSciNet and the Web of Science for full-text peer-reviewed articles written in English, French and Spanish. These articles should use mathematical and statistical modelling frameworks to study dengue, zika and chikungunya, and their cocirculation/coinfection with other diseases, with a publication date between 1 January 2011 and 31 July 2023. Eligible studies should employ deterministic, stochastic or statistical modelling approaches, consider control measures and incorporate parameters' estimation or considering calibration/validation approaches. We will exclude articles focusing on clinical/laboratory experiments or theoretical articles that do not include any case study. Two reviewers specialised in zoonotic diseases and mathematical/statistical modelling will independently screen and retain relevant studies. Data extraction will be performed using a structured form, and the findings of the study will be summarised through classification and descriptive analysis. Three scoping reviews will be published, each focusing on one disease and its cocirculation/co-infection with other diseases. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol is exempt from ethics approval because it is carried out on published manuscripts and without the participation of humans and/or animals. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations in conferences.

Effects of the source of information and knowledge of dengue fever on the mosquito control behavior of residents of border areas of Yunnan, China.

BACKGROUND: Strengthening the mosquito control measures undertaken by residents of an area where dengue fever is present can significantly decrease the spread of this disease. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of the source of information and knowledge of dengue fever on the mosquito control behavior of residents of areas at high risk of this disease to determine effective ways of enhancing this behavior. METHODS: A survey was conducted via face-to-face interviews or questionnaires between March and May 2021 in three regions of the province of Yunnan, China. The survey included basic information about the respondents, the source(s) of their dengue fever information, the level of their dengue fever knowledge, and the measures they had implemented to control mosquitoes. Principal component analysis was used to extract the main components of the sources of information. Correlation analysis and structural equation analysis were used to explore the impact of the sources of information and residents' dengue fever knowledge on their mosquito control behavior. RESULTS: Publicity achieved through mass media, including official WeChat accounts, magazines/newspapers, poster leaflets, television/radio and the Internet, had a direct effect on dengue fever knowledge and mosquito control behavior, and indirectly affected mosquito control behavior through dengue fever knowledge. Organized publicity campaigns, including information provided by medical staff and through community publicity, had a direct effect on dengue fever knowledge and indirectly affected mosquito control behavior through dengue fever knowledge. The residents' level of dengue fever knowledge had a significant, positive, direct effect on their mosquito control behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Mosquito control is an important measure for the prevention and control of outbreaks of dengue fever. An effective source of information can improve the level of dengue fever knowledge among residents and thus enhance their mosquito control behavior.

À medida que os casos de dengue aumentam globalmente, o controle de vetores e o envolvimento da comunidade são fundamentais para evitar a disseminação da doença

Enquanto a incidência de dengue aumenta em todas as regiões, especialmente em partes das Américas, especialistas analisaram esta semana a situação global e os métodos para ajudar a controlar a propagação da doença transmitida por mosquitos.

Serotype-associated immune response and network immunoclusters in children and adults during acute Dengue virus infection.

The present study was designed as an exploratory investigation to characterize the overall profile of chemokines, growth factors, and pro-inflammatory/regulatory cytokines during acute DENV infection according to DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-4 serotypes and age: children: <1-10-year-old (yo); adolescents:11-20 yo; adults 21-40 yo; and older adults: 41-75 yo. The levels of soluble immunemediators were measured in serum by high-throughput microbeads array in 636 subjects including 317 DENV-infected and 319 age-matching non-infected control (NI). Overall, most soluble mediators were increased in DENV-infected patients as compared to NI group regardless of age and DENV serotype, with high magnitude order of increase for CCL2, CXCL10, IL-1ß, IFN-γ, IL1-Ra (fold change >3x), except PDGF in which no fold change was observed. Moreover, despite the age ranges, DENV-1 and DENV-4 presented increased levels of VEGF, IL-6, and TNF-α in serum but decreased levels of PDGF, while DENV-2 exhibited increased levels of CXCL8, CCL4, and IL-12. Noteworthy was that DENV-2 showed increased levels of IL-12, IL-15, IL-17, IL-4, IL-9, and IL-13, and maintained an unaltered levels of PDGF at younger ages (<1-10 yo and 11-20 yo), whereas in older ages (21-40 yo and 41-75 yo), the results showed increased levels of CCL2, IL-6, and TNF-α, but lower levels of PDGF. In general, DENV infection at younger age groups exhibited more complex network immunoclusters as compared to older age groups. Multivariate analysis revealed a clustering of DENV cases according to age for a set of soluble mediators especially in subjects infected with DENV-2 serotype. Altogether, our findings demonstrate that the profile of circulating soluble mediators differs substantially in acute DENV according to age and DENV serotypes suggesting the participation of serotype-associated immune response, which may represent a potential target for development of therapeutics and could be used to assist medical directive for precise clinical management of severe cases.

Application of medical information system to identify dengue outbreak factors: Insights from a hyperendemic city in Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is widespread globally, but it is more severe in hyperendemic regions where the virus, its vectors, and its human hosts naturally occur. The problem is particularly acute in cities, where outbreaks affect a large human population living in a wide array of socio-environmental conditions. Controlling outbreaks will rely largely on systematic data collection and analysis approaches to uncover nuances on a city-by-city basis due to the diversity of factors. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study is to consolidate and analyse the dengue case dataset amassed by the e-Dengue web-based information system, developed by the Ministry of Health Malaysia, to improve our epidemiological understanding. METHODS: We retrieved data from the e-Dengue system and integrated a total of 18,812 cases from 2012 to 2019 (8 years) with meteorological data, geoinformatics techniques, and socio-environmental observations to identify plausible factors that could have caused dengue outbreaks in Ipoh, a hyperendemic city in Malaysia. RESULTS: The rainfall trend characterised by a linearity of R2 > 0.99, termed the "wet-dry steps", may be the unifying factor for triggering dengue outbreaks, though it is still a hypothesis that needs further validation. Successful mapping of the dengue "reservoir" contact zones and spill-over diffusion revealed socio-environmental factors that may be controlled through preventive measures. Age is another factor to consider, as the platelet and white blood cell counts in the "below 5" age group are much greater than in other age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our work demonstrates the novelty of the e-Dengue system, which can identify outbreak factors at high resolution when integrated with non-medical fields. Besides dengue, the techniques and insights laid out in this paper are valuable, at large, for advancing control strategies for other mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria, chikungunya, and zika in other hyperendemic cities elsewhere globally.