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1.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi ; 53(10): 1075-1080, 2019 Oct 06.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31607060

RESUMO

Based on the principle of Joinpoint regression (JPR) model and the additivity of Poisson distribution, this paper constructed a JPR model for series cumulative data. The notifiable incidence number of dengue fever cases per week and weekly cumulative data in Guangdong province from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed, using (mean squared errors) MSE and (mean absolute percentage error) MAPE to evaluate different models. Except for 2015, the MSE and MAPE produced from the logarithmic linear JPR model based on weekly cumulative incidence number were smaller than those based on the weekly data. The fitting accuracy of JPR model for series cumulative data for trend analysis had been improved significantly. This model could be applied to the analysis of the trend change and the prediction of staged cumulative incidence.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Análise de Regressão
2.
BMC Public Health ; 19(1): 1148, 2019 Sep 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31522680

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: A clear understanding of the epidemiology of malaria and dengue co-infection is essential for informed decisions on appropriate control strategies for dengue and malaria. This systematic review synthesized evidence on the relationship of malaria and dengue co-infection and related it to alterations in platelet, hemoglobin, hematocrit, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels when compared to malaria mono-infection. METHODS: A systematic review in accordance with PRISMA guidelines was conducted. All published articles available in PubMed and Web of Science (ISI) databases before October 21, 2017 were recruited. All epidemiological studies except case reports on the prevalence or incidence of malaria and dengue co-infection among patients visiting hospitals with febrile illness were included. Studies that involved conference abstracts, protocols, systematic reviews, only mono-dengue or mono-malaria infections, and only animal or in vitro studies were excluded after screening the titles, abstracts, and body texts. Studies were additionally excluded after full text review when they lacked epidemiologic data on malaria and dengue co-infection. Two reviewers independently screened, reviewed, and assessed all the studies. Cochrane Q (Chi-square) and Moran's I2 were used to assess heterogeneity, and the funnel plot was used to examine publication bias. The summary odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using a fixed-effects model. Thirteen cross-sectional and two retrospective studies were eligible to be included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. RESULTS: Out of the 2269 citations screened, 15 articles were eligible to be included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The 15 studies involved 13,798 (10,373 cases with malaria and 3425 with dengue) patients in 9 countries. Thirteen studies compared the incidence and odds of Plasmodium sp. infection, five studies compared the odds of mean platelet, three studies compared Plasmodium parasite density, and four studies compared the odds of hemoglobin, hematocrit, AST, and ALT levels among co-infected groups and single-malaria-infected groups. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that dengue and malaria co-infection was associated with decreased odds of malaria infection, malaria parasitemia, AST, and ALT levels when compared to malaria mono-infection. However, malaria and dengue co-infection was associated with increased odds of platelet and hemoglobin levels when compared to malaria mono-infection.


Assuntos
Coinfecção , Dengue , Malária , Animais , Coinfecção/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Dengue/diagnóstico , Dengue/epidemiologia , Hematócrito , Hospitais , Humanos , Laboratórios , Malária/diagnóstico , Malária/epidemiologia , Razão de Chances , Parasitemia , Prevalência , Estudos Retrospectivos
3.
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop ; 52: e20190232, 2019 Sep 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31508784

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Dengue is an endemic and epidemic disease in Brazil, with a high burden of disease. Amazonas State has a high risk of transmission. This study aimed to assess the self-reported prevalence of dengue in adults living in Manaus Metropolitan Region. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with adults living in Manaus Metropolitan Region in 2015. We performed a three-phase probabilistic sampling to collect participants' clinical and sociodemographic data. Self-reported dengue infection in the previous year was the primary outcome. Descriptive statistics and Poisson regression analysis with robust variance were used to calculate the prevalence ratio (PR) of dengue infections with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Multilevel analysis including city and neighborhood variables was calculated. All analyses considered the complex sampling. RESULTS: Among the 4,001 participants, dengue in the previous year was self-reported by 7.0% (95% CI 6.3%-7.8%). Dengue was more frequent in women(PR 1.51; 95% CI 1.06-2.13), elderly participants (≥60 years old, PR 2.54; 95% CI 1.19-5.45), White and Asian participants (PR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.11-2.23), and individuals who had not received endemic agent visits (PR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.31-3.99). After multilevel analysis, sex was no longer a significant variable, with the remaining associations still significant. CONCLUSIONS: Seven out of 100 inhabitants of Manaus Metropolitan Region reported dengue in the previous year. Dengue was predominantly observed in women, elderly individuals, White and Asian individuals, and individuals who did not receive endemic agent visits. The setting plays an important role in dengue infections.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Autorrelato/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Brasil/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Fatores Socioeconômicos , População Urbana , Adulto Jovem
5.
BMC Evol Biol ; 19(1): 163, 2019 08 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31375065

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Ancestral character states computed from the combination of phylogenetic trees with extrinsic traits are used to decipher evolutionary scenarios in various research fields such as phylogeography, epidemiology, and ecology. Despite the existence of powerful methods and software in ancestral character state inference, difficulties may arise when interpreting the outputs of such inferences. The growing complexity of data (trees, annotations), the diversity of optimization criteria for computing trees and ancestral character states, the combinatorial explosion of potential evolutionary scenarios if some ancestral characters states do not stand out clearly from others, requires the design of new methods to explore associations of phylogenetic trees with extrinsic traits, to ease the visualization and interpretation of evolutionary scenarios. RESULT: We developed PastView, a user-friendly interface that includes numerical and graphical features to help users to import and/or compute ancestral character states from discrete variables and extract ancestral scenarios as sets of successive transitions of character states from the tree root to its leaves. PastView provides summarized views such as transition maps and integrates comparative tools to highlight agreements or discrepancies between methods of ancestral annotations inference. CONCLUSION: The main contribution of PastView is to assemble known numerical and graphical methods into a multi-maps graphical user interface dedicated to the computing, searching and viewing of evolutionary scenarios based on phylogenetic trees and ancestral character states. PastView is available publicly as a standalone software on www.pastview.org .


Assuntos
Filogenia , Software , Interface Usuário-Computador , Albânia/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Vírus da Dengue/genética , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , HIV-1/genética , Humanos , Fenótipo , Filogeografia
6.
Rev Lat Am Enfermagem ; 27: e3160, 2019 Aug 19.
Artigo em Português, Inglês, Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31432916

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the trend and spatial distribution of some diseases that require compulsory notification in pregnant women. METHOD: ecological study, with data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, of the incidence of the six most frequent diseases that, require compulsory notification, in pregnant women. The Prais-Winsten model was used to analyze the trend classified as stable, decreasing and increasing, according to macro-regions. For the spatial analysis, the incidences distributed in percentiles, in choropleth maps, by Health Regions were calculated. RESULTS: the most frequent infections were syphilis, dengue, Human Immunodeficiency Virus, influenza, hepatitis and toxoplasmosis. Incidence increased by 30.8%, 30.4%, 15.4% and 2.6%, on average, for syphilis, toxoplasmosis, dengue and Human Immunodeficiency Virus, respectively. On average, the incidence of syphilis increased by 40.5% in Macro-regional North and 38% in Macro-regional Northwest. The spatial analysis showed, in the last four years, high incidence of dengue, syphilis and infection by Human Immunodeficiency Virus, which reached 180.2, 141.7 and 100.8 cases per 10,000 live births, respectively. CONCLUSION: there were increased incidences of infection in pregnant women due to syphilis, toxoplasmosis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus, with differences in their spatial distribution, indicating that these diseases should be a priority in the care of pregnant women in more affected regions.


Assuntos
Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/epidemiologia , Brasil/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Notificação de Doenças , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Hepatite/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Gravidez , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Sífilis/epidemiologia , Fatores de Tempo , Toxoplasmose/epidemiologia
7.
BMC Public Health ; 19(1): 1014, 2019 Jul 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31366341

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Many tropical countries are currently experiencing dengue (DEN), chikungunya (CHIK) and also more recently Zika (ZIKA) epidemics (particularly in Latin America). Although the risk of transmission and spread of these infections in temperate regions remains a controversial issue, vector-borne diseases have been widely reported in the media and have been the focus of preventive strategies by national and international policy-makers and public health authorities. In this context, we wanted to determine the extent of risk perception in infectious diseases (ID) physicians of the current and future risk of arboviral disease introduction, autochthonous case development and epidemic scenarios in France, Western Europe. METHODS: To this aim, we developed an original standardized questionnaire survey which was disseminated by the French Infectious Diseases Society to ID physician members. RESULTS: We found that ID physicians perceived the risk of introduction and outbreak development of DEN, CHIK and ZIKA in France to be low to medium-low. Generalized Linear Model(s) identified medical school training, the extent of professional experience, and awareness of the French national plan regarding arboviral infections as significant predictors for lower risk perception among respondents. CONCLUSION: Despite the fact that arboviral diseases are increasingly being imported into France, sometimes resulting in sporadic autochtonous transmission, French ID physicians do not perceive the risk as high. Better communication and education targeting health professionals and citizens will be needed to enhance the effectiveness of the French national plan to prepare against arboviral diseases.


Assuntos
Atitude do Pessoal de Saúde , Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Infectologia , Médicos/psicologia , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Adulto , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , França/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Médicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Medição de Risco , Inquéritos e Questionários
8.
Rev Inst Med Trop Sao Paulo ; 61: e40, 2019 Aug 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31432989

RESUMO

Several arboviruses have emerged and/or re-emerged in North, Central and South-American countries. Viruses from some regions of Africa and Asia, such as the Zika and Chikungunya virus have been introduced in new continents causing major public health problems. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of RNA from Zika, Dengue and Chikungunya viruses in symptomatic patients from Rondonia, where the epidemiological profile is still little known, by one-step real-time RT-PCR. The main clinical signs and symtoms were fever (51.2%), headache (78%), chills (6.1%), pruritus (12.2%), exanthema (20.1%), arthralgia (35.3%), myalgia (26.8%) and retro-orbital pain (19.5%). Serum from 164 symptomatic patients were collected and tested for RNA of Zika, Dengue types 1 to 4 and Chikungunya viruses, in addition to antibodies against Dengue NS1 antigen. Direct microscopy for Malaria was also performed. Only ZIKV RNA was detected in 4.3% of the patients, and in the remaining 95.7% of the patients RNA for Zika, Dengue and Chikungunya viruses were not detected. This finding is intriguing as the region has been endemic for Dengue for a long time and more recently for Chikungunya virus as well. The results indicated that medical and molecular parameters obtained were suitable to describe the first report of symptomatic Zika infections in this region. Furthermore, the low rate of detection, compared to clinical signs and symptoms as the solely diagnosis criteria, suggests that molecular assays for detection of viruses or other pathogens that cause similar symptoms should be used and the corresponding diseases could be included in the compulsory notification list.


Assuntos
Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Vírus Chikungunya/genética , Vírus da Dengue/genética , Dengue/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Zika virus/genética , Brasil/epidemiologia , Febre de Chikungunya/diagnóstico , Dengue/diagnóstico , Humanos , Vírus de RNA/genética , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase em Tempo Real , Infecção por Zika virus/diagnóstico
9.
BMC Public Health ; 19(1): 934, 2019 Jul 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31296193

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a major public health problem in the tropics and sub-tropics, but the disease is less known to non-dengue-endemic countries including in Northeast Asia. However, an unexpected dengue outbreak occurred in 2014 in Japan. Given that autochthonous (domestic) dengue cases had not been reported for the past 70 years in Japan, this outbreak was highly unusual and suggests that several environmental factors might have changed in a way that favors vector mosquitoes in the Northeast Asian region. METHODS: A Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index, as validated in previous work, was constructed using climate and non-climate factors. This CRF index was compared to the number of reported dengue cases in Tokyo, Japan where the outbreak was observed in 2014. In order to identify high-risk areas, the CRF index was further estimated at the 5 km by 5 km resolution and mapped for Japan and South Korea. RESULTS: The high-risk areas determined by the CRF index corresponded well to the provinces where a high number of autochthonous cases were reported during the outbreak in Japan. At the provincial-level, high-risk areas for dengue fever were the Eastern part of Tokyo and Kanakawa, the South-Eastern part of Saitama, and the North-Western part of Chiba. While a relatively small number of high-risk areas were identified in South Korea compared with Japan, the high-risk areas in South Korea include popular tourist destinations where international visitors have been increasing. CONCLUSION: The recent dengue outbreak in Japan may signal that the two adjacent non-dengue-endemic countries are also exposed to the risk of temporal and sporadic behavior of dengue fever. It is critical to understand potential high-risk areas for future outbreaks and to set up appropriate prevention activities at the governmental-level.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Ásia/epidemiologia , Conjuntos de Dados como Assunto , Doenças Endêmicas , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologia , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Tóquio/epidemiologia
10.
Environ Monit Assess ; 191(7): 473, 2019 Jun 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31256248

RESUMO

Dengue is among the largest public health problems in Brazil. Reported dengue cases via DATASUS were correlated with reanalysis data from NCEP (rainfall and air temperature) and Brazil's population data (2000 and 2010) from 1994 to 2014. The aim of this study was to evaluate relational patterns between climate variables together with population data from the last census and reported cases of dengue in Brazil from 1994 to 2014 by using statistical techniques. Several statistical methods [descriptive and exploratory statistics; simple and multiple linear regressions; Mann-Kendall (MK), Run, and Pettit nonparametric tests; and multivariate statistics via cluster analysis (CA)] were applied to time series. The highest percentages of Dengue cases were in Brazil's Southeast (47.14%), Northeast (29.86%), and Central West (13.01%). Upon CA of the Brazilian regions, three homogeneous dengue groups were formed: G1 (North and Central West), G2 (Southeast and Northeast), and G3 (South). Run testing indicated that the time series is homogenous and persistence free. MK testing showed a nonsignificant trend of increase of dengue cases in 23 states with positive trends and in four states with negative trends of Brazil. A significant increase in the magnitude of dengue at the regional level was recorded in the North, Southeast, South, and Central West regions. Statistical methods showed that dengue variability in Brazil is cyclical (2- to 3-year cycles), but not repetitive of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the moderate, strong, and neutral categories. ENSO interferes with the action of weather systems, changing or intensifying rainfall and air temperatures in Brazil. The population increase in recent decades and the lack of effective public policies together with the action of ENSO contributed to the increase in dengue cases reported in Brazil.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Monitoramento Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Brasil/epidemiologia , Mudança Climática , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Humanos , Análise Multivariada , Estatísticas não Paramétricas , Tempo (Meteorologia)
11.
BMC Public Health ; 19(1): 958, 2019 Jul 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31319834

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is the world's fastest spreading mosquito borne viral infection. It is prevalent throughout both subtropical and tropical region, and affects over 128 countries. Dengue virus (DENV) infection poses a serious global public health challenge to three billion people, resulting in approximately 200 million cases of morbidity and 50,000 cases of mortality annually. In Cameroon like in most sub-Saharan African countries, DENV infection occur concurrently with other infectious diseases whose symptoms often overlap, rendering differential diagnosis challenging. This study aims at determining the frequency of acute dengue among febrile children under 15 years attending hospitals in some areas of Cameroon. METHODS: A total of 961 children under the age of 15 were recruited in a cross-sectional study using systematic sampling technique and by selecting each subject out of the three. The study was conducted in 10 public health centers in Cameroon. Demographic data and risk factors of the subjects were obtained using well-structured questionnaires. Dengue virus NS1 antigen, IgM and IgG were analysed using a Tell me fast® Combo Dengue NS1-IgG/IgM Rapid Test. An in-house ELISA test for dengue specific IgM antibody was equally performed for confirmation. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed using Graph pad version 6.0. RESULTS: A prevalence of 6.14% acute dengue virus infection was observed among children with febrile illness with a significant difference (p = 0.0488) between males (4.7%) and females (7.7%). In addition, children who reportedly were unprotected from vectors, showed a comparatively higher prevalence of the disease seropositivity than those practicing protective measures. CONCLUSION: DENV infection therefore is an important cause of fever among children in Cameroon. Thus, there is a need to include differential screening for DENV infections as a tool in the management of fever in children in the country.


Assuntos
Instituições de Assistência Ambulatorial/estatística & dados numéricos , Vírus da Dengue , Dengue/epidemiologia , Febre/epidemiologia , Pediatria/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Anticorpos Antivirais/análise , Anticorpos Antivirais/imunologia , Camarões/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Estudos Transversais , Dengue/virologia , Vírus da Dengue/imunologia , Ensaio de Imunoadsorção Enzimática , Feminino , Febre/virologia , Humanos , Imunoglobulina M/análise , Imunoglobulina M/imunologia , Masculino , Prevalência , Fatores de Risco
12.
Rev. argent. salud publica ; 39(9): 38-41, Julio 2019.
Artigo em Espanhol | LILACS, BINACIS, ARGMSAL | ID: biblio-1007593

RESUMO

: INTRODUCCIÓN: En Argentina desde 1998 ocurrieron brotes de dengue todos los años excepto 2001 y 2005 en diferentes áreas, en 15 jurisdicciones, con identificación de los 4 serotipos. El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar poblaciones con mayor riesgo de desarrollar formas graves de la enfermedad como insumo para la posible introducción de una estrategia de prevención. METODOS: Se realizó un estudio retrospectivo descriptivo de los casos de dengue confirmados autóctonos a partir de publicaciones oficiales, notificaciones al SNVS e información aportada por las áreas de epidemiología provinciales. Se elaboró una estratificación del riesgo de dengue grave por departamento para el período 1998-2018. RESULTADOS: Se elaboraron 5 criterios de estratificación de riesgo: registro de casos autóctonos en al menos 2 de los 5 cinco últimos años, registro de 2 o más serotipos causantes del 10% o más de los casos cada uno, incidencia acumulada mayor a 500 casos por 100 mil habitantes, incidencia acumulada mayor a 5 casos por mil menores de 15 años y registro de casos graves o fallecidos. Se obtuvieron 60 departamentos con 1 criterio, 19 con 2, 8 con 3, 4 con 4, 1 con 5 y 129 no cumplieron criterios. DISCUSION: Solo 13 departamentos sumaron 3 criterios o más, resultado del predominio de DENV-1, la baja incidencia en menores de 15 años y el bajo número de casos graves y fatales. La estratificación del riesgo poblacional con criterios de registro sistemático se orienta a obtener una herramienta de evaluación de los escenarios de dengue que puedan presentarse en el futuro.


Assuntos
Humanos , Dengue/epidemiologia , Sistema de Vigilância Sanitária , Argentina/epidemiologia , Epidemiologia Descritiva , Estudos Retrospectivos , Dengue/prevenção & controle
13.
Environ Monit Assess ; 191(Suppl 2): 279, 2019 Jun 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31254116

RESUMO

The well-being of a population and its health are influenced by a myriad of socioeconomic and environmental factors that interact across a wide range of scales, from the individual to the national and global levels. One of these factors is the provision of health services, which is regulated by both demand and supply. Although an adequate provision can significantly improve health outcomes of a population, lopsided flow of patients to specific health centers can result in serious disparities and potentially delay the timeliness of a diagnosis. In this paper, utilization patterns during an epidemic of dengue fever in the city of Cali, Colombia for the year 2010 are investigated. Specifically, the objectives are to (1) identify health facilities that exhibit patterns of over- and underutilization, (2) determine where patients who are being diagnosed at a particular facility originate from, and (3) whether patients are traveling to their closest facility and hence (4) estimate how far patients are willing to travel to be diagnosed and treated for dengue fever. Analysis is further decomposed by age group and by gender, in an attempt to test whether utilization patterns drastically change according to these variables. Answers to these questions can help health authorities plan for future epidemics, for instance, by providing guidelines as to which facilities require more resources and by improving the organization of health prevention campaigns to direct population seeking health assistance to use facilities that are underutilized.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Monitoramento Ambiental , Adulto , Cidades , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Dengue/terapia , Dengue/virologia , Feminino , Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Instalações de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Viagem
14.
BMC Public Health ; 19(1): 669, 2019 May 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31146722

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Thermal fogging of Insecticides is a vector control strategy used by the Medellin Secretary of Health to combat dengue. This method is employed during outbreaks to curb populations of potentially infectious adult mosquitoes and interrupt transmission cycles. While this strategy has been used in Medellin since 2007, in some years it has not reduced dengue cases as expected. Difficulties in the implementation of fumigation strategies, such as lack of opportunity for treatment and public perception may be factors that limit its utility. The objective of this study was to identify barriers that hinder the implementation of thermal fogging, as well as attitudes and beliefs that prevent its acceptance. METHODS: We used a cross-sectional observational study of mixed methods carried out in neighborhoods prioritized for fumigation treatment in Medellin, Colombia. First, we assessed the timeliness of treatment by determining the latency period between reported dengue cases and the implementation of fumigation in response to those cases. Next, we administered structured questionnaires to residents in the area of fumigation treatments (n = 4455 homes) to quantify acceptance and rejection, as well as factors associated with rejection. RESULTS: The median time between notification and treatment was 25 days (IQR 20.0-36.5). Fumigators were only able to treat 53.7% of total households scheduled for treatment; 9.6% rejected treatment, and treatment teams were unable to fumigate the remaining 36.7% of homes due to absent residents, no adults being present, and other reasons. The most frequent causes for rejection were residents being busy at the time of treatment (33.1%) and no interest in the treatment (24.5%). Other reasons for rejection include the perceptions that fumigation does not control pests other than mosquitoes (4.3%), that no mosquitoes were present in the home (3.3%), and that fumigation affects human health (3.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The high percentage of houses where it was not possible to perform fumigation limits control of the vector. Future strategies should consider more flexible treatment schedules and incorporate informational messages to educate residents about the safety and importance of treatment.


Assuntos
Dengue/prevenção & controle , Fumigação/estatística & dados numéricos , Inseticidas/administração & dosagem , Controle de Mosquitos/métodos , Adulto , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Dengue/epidemiologia , Características da Família , Feminino , Fumigação/métodos , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mosquitos Vetores , Características de Residência , Inquéritos e Questionários
15.
BMC Infect Dis ; 19(1): 493, 2019 Jun 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31164093

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dengue is becoming a major public health concern in Guangdong (GD) Province of China. The problem was highlighted in 2014 by an unprecedented explosive outbreak, where the number of cases was larger than the total cases in previous 30 years. The present study aimed to clarify the spatial and temporal patterns of this dengue outbreak. METHODS: Based on the district/county-level epidemiological, demographic and geographic data, we first used Moran's I statistics and Spatial scan method to uncover spatial autocorrelation and clustering of dengue incidence, and then estimated the spatial distributions of mosquito ovitrap index (MOI) by using inverse distance weighting. We finally employed a multivariate time series model to quantitatively decompose dengue cases into endemic, autoregressive and spatiotemporal components. RESULTS: The results indicated that dengue incidence was highly spatial-autocorrelated with the inclination of clustering and nonuniformity. About 12 dengue clusters were discovered around Guangzhou and Foshan with significant differences by district/county, where the most likely cluster with the largest relative risk located in central Guangzhou in October. Three significant high-MOI areas were observed around Shaoguan, Qingyuan, Shanwei and Guangzhou. It was further found the districts in Guagnzhou and Foshan were prone to local autoregressive transmission, and most region in southern and central GD exhibited higher endemic components. Moreover, nearly all of districts/counties (especially the urban area) have cases that were infected in adjacent regions. CONCLUSIONS: The study can help to clarify the heterogeneity and the associations of dengue transmission in space and time, and thus provide useful information for public health authorities to plan dengue control strategies.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Animais , China/epidemiologia , Análise por Conglomerados , Culicidae/virologia , Dengue/transmissão , Humanos , Incidência , Insetos Vetores/virologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Análise Espacial , Análise Espaço-Temporal
16.
Environ Monit Assess ; 191(Suppl 2): 393, 2019 Jun 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31254076

RESUMO

India has the largest number of dengue cases in the world, contributing approximately 34% of the global burden. The framework for a geospatially enabled early warning and adaptive response system (EWARS) was first proposed in 2008. It was meant to be a decision support system for enhancing traditional surveillance methods for preventing mosquito-borne diseases in India by utilizing remote sensing data and fuzzy logic-based mathematical predictive modeling. This conceptual paper presents a significant evolution of EWARS such that it synthesizes inputs from not only traditional surveillance and reporting systems for dengue but also from the public via participatory disease surveillance. Two smartphone-based applications have been developed to support EWARS. The first-MOSapp-allows field health workers to upload surveillance data and collect key data on environmental parameters by both direct observation and via portable microclimate stations. The second-DISapp-collects relevant information directly from the community to support participatory disease surveillance. It also gives the user a real-time estimate of the risk of exposure to dengue in proximity to their home and has an educational component that provides information on relevant preventive measures. Both applications utilize a new mosquito abundance measure-the mosquito perception index (MPI)-as reported by the user. These data streams will feed into the EWARS model to generate dynamic risk maps that can guide resource optimization and strengthen disease surveillance, prevention, and response. It is anticipated that such an approach can assist in addressing gaps in the current system of dengue surveillance and control in India.


Assuntos
Aedes/fisiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Aplicativos Móveis , Mosquitos Vetores/fisiologia , Animais , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/transmissão , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Humanos , Índia/epidemiologia , Modelos Teóricos , Medição de Risco
17.
Glob Health Action ; 12(1): 1552652, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31154985

RESUMO

Background: Digital traces are rapidly used for health monitoring purposes in recent years. This approach is growing as the consequence of increased use of mobile phone, Internet, and machine learning. Many studies reported the use of Google Trends data as a potential data source to assist traditional surveillance systems. The rise of Internet penetration (54.7%) and the huge utilization of Google (98%) indicate the potential use of Google Trends in Indonesia. No study was performed to measure the correlation between country wide official dengue reports and Google Trends data in Indonesia. Objective: This study aims to measure the correlation between Google Trends data on dengue fever and the Indonesian national surveillance report. Methods: This research was a quantitative study using time series data (2012-2016). Two sets of data were analyzed using Moving Average analysis in Microsoft Excel. Pearson and Time lag correlations were also used to measure the correlation between those data. Results: Moving Average analysis showed that Google Trends data have a linear time series pattern with official dengue report. Pearson correlation indicated high correlation for three defined search terms with R-value range from 0.921 to 0.937 (p ≤ 0.05, overall period) which showed increasing trend in epidemic periods (2015-2016). Time lag correlation also indicated that Google Trends data can potentially be used for an early warning system and novel tool to monitor public reaction before the increase of dengue cases and during the outbreak. Conclusions: Google Trends data have a linear time series pattern and statistically correlated with annual official dengue reports. Identification of information-seeking behavior is needed to support the use of Google Trends for disease surveillance in Indonesia.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Vigilância da População/métodos , Mídias Sociais/estatística & dados numéricos , Mídias Sociais/tendências , Telefone Celular , Previsões , Humanos , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Internet
18.
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop ; 52: e20190060, 2019 Jun 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31188919

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: In this study, we aimed to identify DENV-2 subtypes in Aedes aegypti pools collected between 2011 and 2017 in a rural area of Northern Cordoba, Colombia ("La Balsa"). METHODS: RT-PCR was performed to analyze the capsid/pre-membrane region (C-PrM). Sequencing and phylogenetic bayesian inference using reference DENV-2 sequences were performed. RESULTS: Twelve pools that tested positive for DENV-2 were characterized based on the C-PrM region and grouped under the Asian/American clade. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to report the DENV-2 Asian-American subtype in a rural area of Cordoba region, which is associated with severe dengue and local epidemics.


Assuntos
Aedes/virologia , Vírus da Dengue/classificação , Vírus da Dengue/genética , Dengue/virologia , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Filogenia , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Vírus da Dengue/isolamento & purificação , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase Via Transcriptase Reversa , Sorogrupo , Sorotipagem , Dengue Grave
19.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 2374, 2019 05 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31147545

RESUMO

For dengue fever and other seasonal epidemics we show how the stability of the preceding inter-outbreak period can predict subsequent total outbreak magnitude, and that a feasible stability metric can be computed from incidence data alone. As an observable of a dynamical system, incidence data contains information about the underlying mechanisms: climatic drivers, changing serotype pools, the ecology of the vector populations, and evolving viral strains. We present mathematical arguments to suggest a connection between stability measured in incidence data during the inter-outbreak period and the size of the effective susceptible population. The method is illustrated with an analysis of dengue incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico, where forecasts can be made as early as three to four months ahead of an outbreak. These results have immediate significance for public health planning, and can be used in combination with existing forecasting methods and more comprehensive dengue models.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Planejamento em Saúde , Saúde Pública , Estações do Ano , Suscetibilidade a Doenças , Ecologia , Previsões , Humanos , Incidência , Modelos Estatísticos , Mosquitos Vetores , Porto Rico
20.
Arch Virol ; 164(8): 2131-2135, 2019 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31102050

RESUMO

A large-scale dengue fever (DF) outbreak occurred in Chaozhou, Guangdong province, China 2015. In our study, 528 dengue-positive patient samples were collected for clinical and laboratory data analysis. 491 cases (93.0%) were primary dengue fever (PDF), 22 cases (4.2%) were dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and 15 cases (2.8%) were diagnosed with severe dengue fever (SDF). All cases were infected by dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2), and the isolated strains belonged to cosmopolitan genotype, which were grouped closely with Malaysia strains from 2010 to 2014. Moreover, the study showed that laboratory indices have significantly difference in PDF, DHF and SDF patients. A comprehensive analysis of these data could assist and guide the clinical diagnosis for DF, which has an important significance for the control of dengue virus infection.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , China/epidemiologia , Dengue/virologia , Vírus da Dengue/genética , Surtos de Doenças , Feminino , Genótipo , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Filogenia , Sorogrupo , Dengue Grave/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
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