RESUMO
Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and chikungunya have been co-circulating in the Americas, causing great damage to the population. In 2021, for instance, almost 1.5 million cases were reported on the continent, being Brazil the responsible for most of them. Even though they are transmitted by the same mosquito, it remains unclear whether there exists a relationship between both diseases. In this paper, we model the geographic distributions of dengue and chikungunya over the years 2016 to 2021 in the Brazilian state of Ceará. We use a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model for the joint analysis of two arboviruses that includes spatial covariates as well as specific and shared spatial effects that take into account the potential autocorrelation between the two diseases. Our findings allow us to identify areas with high risk of one or both diseases. Only 7% of the areas present high relative risk for both diseases, which suggests a competition between viruses. This study advances the understanding of the geographic patterns and the identification of risk factors of dengue and chikungunya being able to help health decision-making.
Assuntos
Febre de Chikungunya , Dengue , Infecção por Zika virus , Animais , Humanos , Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Brasil/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Teorema de BayesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) was the major serotype in the 2015 dengue outbreak in Taiwan, while DENV-1 and DENV-3 were dominant between 2005 and 2014. We aimed to investigate whether DENV-2 contributed to disease severity and mortality in the outbreak in Kaohsiung city, Taiwan. METHODS: We collected serum samples from dengue patients to detect the presence of DENV and determine the serotypes by using quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Our cohorts comprised 105 DENV-1-infected cases and 1,550 DENV-2-infected cases. Demographic data, DENV serotype, and comorbidities were covariates for univariate and multivariate analyses to explore the association with severity and mortality. RESULTS: The results suggested that DENV-1 persisted and circulated, while DENV-2 was dominant during the dengue outbreak that occurred between September and December 2015. However, DENV-2 did not directly contribute to either severity or mortality. Aged patients and patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) or moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) had a higher risk of developing severe dengue. The mortality of dengue patients was related to a higher Charlson comorbidity index score and severe dengue. Among DENV-2-infected patients and older patients, preexisting anti-dengue IgG, DM, and moderate to severe CKD were associated with severe dengue. Moreover, female sex and severe dengue were associated with a significantly higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the importance of timely serological testing in elderly patients to identify potential secondary infections and focus on the meticulous management of elderly patients with DM or moderate to severe CKD to reduce dengue-related death.
Assuntos
Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Insuficiência Renal Crônica , Dengue Grave , Idoso , Humanos , Feminino , Sorogrupo , Dengue/diagnóstico , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue Grave/epidemiologia , Taiwan/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/epidemiologiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the density, distribution and insecticide resistance of Aedes albopictus in Ningbo City in 2021, so as to provide insights into formulation of dengue fever control strategies. METHODS: Four administrative villages were randomly selected from each county (district) in Ningbo City from April to November, 2021, to investigate the indoor population density of Aedes larvae, and the Breteau index (BI) was calculated. The population density of adult mosquitoes was investigated in residential areas, parks/bamboo forests, waste tire stacking sites/waste stations/construction sites in each county (district). On June 2021, larvae of the natural strain A. albopictus were collected from epidemic sites of dengue fever in Ningbo City in 2018, and raised in laboratory. Then, larvae and female mosquitoes without blood feeding were selected for insecticide resistance bioassays, while insecticide-sensitive strains of A. albopictus served as controls. The resistance of A. albopictus larvae to deltamethrin, beta-cypermethrin, propoxur, temephos and dichlorvos using the impregnation method, and the medium lethal concentration (LC50) and resistance ratio (RR) were calculated. The resistance of adult A. albopictus to beta-cypermethrin, permethrin, deltamethrin, propoxur and malathion was determined using the tube bioassay, and the mosquito mortality was calculated. RESULTS: A total of 10 072 small water containers from 9 935 households were investigated in Ningbo City in 2021, and there were 1 276 containers with Aedes larvae detected, with an average BI of 12.89. Totally 1 422 mosquito nets were allocated and 954 female A. albopictus were captured, with an average net trapping index of 1.34 mosquitoes/(net·hour). Both larval and adult A. albopictus mosquitoes were found from April to November, and the density of larval A. albopictus peaked in September (BI = 21.21), while the density of adult A. albopictus peaked in August, with a net trapping index of 2.38 mosquitoes/(net·hour). The LC50 values of delta-methrin, beta-cypermethrin, propoxur, temephos and dichlorvos were 0.017 4, 0.000 9, 0.364 1, 0.038 1 mg/L and 0.001 6 mg/L against larvae of natural strains of A. albopicchus, with RRs of 49.66, 25.53, 9.65, 2.24 and 6.06, and the mortality rates of adult mosquitoes were 66.00% (66/100), 69.39% (68/98), 25.00% (25/100), 98.97% (96/97) and 100.00% (98/98) 24 hours post-treatment with 0.08% beta-cypermethrin, 0.03% deltamethrin, 0.4% permethrin, 0.05% propoxur, and 0.5% malathion for 24 h, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A. albopictus is widely distributed in Ningbo City, with a high population density and presents high-level resistance to common pyrethroid insecticides. The population density and insecticide resistance of A. albopictus requires to be reinforced.
Assuntos
Aedes , Dengue , Animais , Feminino , Malation , Temefós , Propoxur , Permetrina , Diclorvós , Mosquitos Vetores , Larva , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controleRESUMO
Machine learning algorithms (ML) are receiving a lot of attention in the development of predictive models for monitoring dengue transmission rates. Previous work has focused only on specific weather variables and algorithms, and there is still a need for a model that uses more variables and algorithms that have higher performance. In this study, we use vector indices and meteorological data as predictors to develop the ML models. We trained and validated seven ML algorithms, including an ensemble ML method, and compared their performance using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) with the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy and F1 score. Our results show that an ensemble ML such as XG Boost, AdaBoost and Random Forest perform better than the logistics regression, Naïve Bayens, decision tree, and support vector machine (SVM), with XGBoost having the highest AUC, accuracy and F1 score. Analysis of the importance of the variables showed that the container index was the least important. By removing this variable, the ML models improved their performance by at least 6% in AUC and F1 score. Our result provides a framework for future studies on the use of predictive models in the development of an early warning system.
Assuntos
Dengue , Aprendizado de Máquina , Humanos , Algoritmos , Máquina de Vetores de Suporte , Curva ROC , Dengue/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Between August and September 2023, three distinct autochthonous dengue virus transmission events occurred in Lazio, Italy, with the main event in Rome. The events involved three different dengue serotypes. No link with previous imported cases was identified. Here we describe the epidemiological and phylogenetic analysis of the first autochthonous cases and the implemented control actions. The multiple transmission events call for a strengthening of the vector control strategies and future research to better characterise the risk in countries like Italy.
Assuntos
Dengue , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Filogenia , Itália/epidemiologia , Sorogrupo , Dengue/epidemiologiaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Although environmental and human behavioral factors in countries with Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks are also common in Nigeria, such an outbreak has not yet been reported probably due to misdiagnosis. The atypical symptoms of malaria and ZIKV infections at the initial phase could leverage their misdiagnosis. This study randomly recruited 496 malaria-suspected patients who visited selected health institutions in Adamawa, Bauchi, and Borno states for malaria tests. These patients' sera were analyzed for ZIKV antibodies using ELISA and plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNT) at 90% endpoint. About 13.8% of Zika virus-neutralizing antibodies (nAb) did not cross-react with dengue, yellow fever, and West Nile viruses suggesting possible monotypic infections. However, 86% of the sera with ZIKV nAb also neutralized other related viruses at varied degrees: dengue viruses (60.7%), West Nile viruses (23.2%), yellow fever virus (7.1%) and 39.3% were co-infections with chikungunya viruses. Notably, the cross-reactions could also reflect co-infections as these viruses are also endemic in the country. The serum dilution that neutralized 90-100% ZIKV infectivity ranged from 1:8 to 1:128. Also, our findings suggest distinct protection against the ZIKV between different collection sites studied. As indicated by nAb, acute ZIKV infection was detected in 1.7% of IgM-positive patients while past infections occurred in 8.5% of IgM-negatives in the three states. In Borno State, 9.4% of IgG neutralized ZIKV denoting past infections while 13.5% were non-neutralizing IgM and IgG indicating other related virus infections. The age, gender, and occupation of the patients and ZIKV nAb were not significantly different. ZIKV nAb from samples collected within 1-7 days after the onset of symptoms was not significantly different from those of 7-10 days. A wider interval with the same techniques in this study may probably give better diagnostic outcomes. ZIKV nAb was significantly distinct among recipients and non-recipients of antibiotic/antimalaria treatments before seeking malaria tests. The inhibiting effect of these drugs on ZIKV infection progression may probably contribute to the absence of neurological disorders associated with the virus despite being endemic in the environment for several decades. Also, protection against ZIKV as marked by the nAb was different among the vaccinated and unvaccinated YF vaccine recipients. Thus, the YF vaccine may be a good alternative to the Zika vaccine in resource-constrained countries. CONCLUSION: The cryptic ZIKV infections underscore the need for differential diagnosis of malaria-suspected febrile patients for arboviruses, especially the Zika virus. The absence of systemic surveillance for the virus is worrisome because of its association with neurological disorders in newborns. Co-infections with other arboviruses may impact adversely on the management of these diseases individually.
Assuntos
Arbovírus , Coinfecção , Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Malária , Doenças do Sistema Nervoso , Vacinas , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental , Infecção por Zika virus , Zika virus , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Infecção por Zika virus/complicações , Infecção por Zika virus/diagnóstico , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Coinfecção/epidemiologia , Anticorpos Antivirais , Malária/diagnóstico , Malária/epidemiologia , Imunoglobulina M , Imunoglobulina G , Dengue/diagnóstico , Dengue/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Sequential infection with multiple dengue virus (DENV) serotypes is thought to induce enduring protection against dengue disease. However, long-term antibody waning has been observed after repeated DENV infection. Here, we provide evidence that highly immune Nicaraguan children and adults (n = 4478) experience boosting and waning of antibodies during and after major Zika and dengue epidemics. We develop a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS-type) model that tracks immunity by titer rather than number of infections to show that boosts in highly immune individuals can contribute to herd immunity, delaying their susceptibility to transmissible infection. In contrast, our model of lifelong immunity in highly immune individuals, as previously assumed, results in complete disease eradication after introduction. Periodic epidemics under this scenario can only be sustained with a constant influx of infected individuals into the population or a high basic reproductive number. We also find that Zika virus infection can boost DENV immunity and produce delays and then surges in dengue epidemics, as observed with real epidemiological data. This work provides insight into factors shaping periodicity in dengue incidence and may inform vaccine efforts to maintain population immunity.
Assuntos
Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Infecção por Zika virus , Zika virus , Adulto , Criança , Humanos , Dengue/epidemiologia , Anticorpos Antivirais , Reações CruzadasRESUMO
Many infectious diseases exist as multiple variants, with interactions between variants potentially driving epidemiological dynamics. These diseases include dengue, which infects hundreds of millions of people every year and exhibits complex multi-serotype dynamics. Antibodies produced in response to primary infection by one of the four dengue serotypes can produce a period of temporary cross-immunity (TCI) to infection by other serotypes. After this period, the remaining antibodies can facilitate the entry of heterologous serotypes into target cells, thus enhancing severity of secondary infection by a heterologous serotype. This represents antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). In this study, we analyze an epidemiological model to provide novel insights into the importance of TCI and ADE in producing cyclic outbreaks of dengue serotypes. Our analyses reveal that without TCI, such cyclic outbreaks are synchronous across serotypes and only occur when ADE produces high transmission rates. In contrast, the presence of TCI allows asynchronous cycles of serotypes by inducing a time lag between recovery from primary infection by one serotype and secondary infection by another, with such cycles able to occur without ADE. Our results suggest that TCI is a fundamental driver of asynchronous cycles of dengue serotypes and possibly other multi-variant diseases.
Assuntos
Coinfecção , Dengue , Humanos , Sorogrupo , Conceitos Matemáticos , Modelos Biológicos , Dengue/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Arthropod-borne viruses, known as arboviruses, pose substantial risks to global public health. Dengue (DENV), Chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses stand out as significant concerns in Brazil and worldwide. Their overlapping clinical manifestations make accurate diagnosis a challenge, underscoring the need for reliable laboratory support. This study employs a comprehensive molecular diagnostic approach to track viral infections in individuals with acute febrile illness, a period marked by widespread outbreaks of DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV. METHODS: Between January and August 2016, we received a total of 713 serum samples obtained from individuals with acute febrile illness, previously tested for DENV, CHIKV or ZIKV, with initial negative results, from LACEN-NATAL. Of the total 713 samples, 667 were from females (354 of them pregnant) and 46 from males. Molecular diagnosis was conducted using the Multiplex RT-qPCR technique for simultaneous detection of DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV. Additionally, we performed differential diagnosis by RT-qPCR for other viruses of the Flavivirus, Alphavirus Enterovirus genera and qPCR for Primate Erythroparvovirus 1 (B19V) species, in accordance with Ministry of Health guidelines. RESULTS: Among the 713 cases, 78.2% tested positive for viral infections, including 48% with CHIKV viremia, 0.6% with DENV and 0.1% with ZIKV. Arboviral coinfections totaled 2.4%, including DENV-CHIKV (1.7%) and CHIKV-ZIKV (0.7%). Moreover, 8% exhibited B19V viremia. Simultaneous infections were identified in 17.5%, encompassing B19V-CHIKV (17.1%), B19V-DENV (0.1%), and B19V-ZIKV (0.3%) Triple infections were observed in 1.3% of cases with B19V-DENV-CHIKV (1%) and B19V-CHIKV-ZIKV (0.3%). CONCLUSION: Molecular testing demonstrated high efficacy in diagnosing prevalent arboviruses and detecting multiple coinfections. This approach helps to elucidate etiologies for symptomatic cases, especially during arbovirus outbreaks, and aids comprehensive surveillance. Our findings underscore the importance of monitoring co-circulating pathogens, such as B19V, with implications for clinical management, particularly in pregnant individuals. This study enhances our understanding of arbovirus epidemiology and reinforces the critical role of molecular diagnosis in disease surveillance and control.
Assuntos
Arbovírus , Febre de Chikungunya , Vírus Chikungunya , Coinfecção , Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Infecção por Zika virus , Zika virus , Masculino , Feminino , Animais , Febre de Chikungunya/diagnóstico , Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Zika virus/genética , Infecção por Zika virus/diagnóstico , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Arbovírus/genética , Dengue/epidemiologia , Vírus Chikungunya/genética , Vírus da Dengue/genética , Viremia , Coinfecção/diagnóstico , Coinfecção/epidemiologia , Brasil/epidemiologia , Febre , PrimatasRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The pandemic of COVID-19 has created an unprecedented burden on the healthcare system and medical communities resulting in new public health challenges. On the other hand, in tropical countries, another concern arises due to the similar spectrum of clinical manifestations between COVID-19 and dengue fever. Thus, the neglected tropical disease 'Dengue' writhed with more inattention. This study aims to find the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue infections in endemic areas of West Bengal, India, and their combined impact on public health. The alterations in circulating dengue serotype and their genomic diversity in different COVID-19 waves were also monitored. METHODS: A total of 1782 patients were included in this study. Dengue NS1 ELISA, molecular serotyping, genotyping and their phylogenetic analysis were performed. GISaided analysis of various dengue serotypes and hotspot identification for risk maps of severe dengue in endemic zones were done. The burden of dengue fever and the sustainability of their viral strains with changing meteorological parameters in parallel to COVID-19 waves were analyzed. RESULTS: Co-circulation of all the four dengue serotypes with rapid change in the pattern of prevalent serotype DENV4 (Genotype-I) in the year 2020 and DENV3 (Genotype-III) in 2021 were observed, in parallel to different circulating strains of COVID-19. Spatiotemporal distribution of DENV using Geographic Information System (GIS) applications observed a serotypic shift and hotspot mapping for risk analysis detected Kolkata as a dengue hotspot, which has also reported the maximum number of COVID-19 cases. CONCLUSION: This study indicates the increased fitness of circulating dengue virus strains with optimal virulence as per changing environmental conditions and the inhabitant's immunity. The high infectivity rate of both the RNA viruses and considering.the consequences of severe dengue and COVID-19 in the population of the same geographical settings is an alarming risk.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Dengue Grave , Humanos , Sorogrupo , Dengue Grave/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Filogenia , Genótipo , Atenção à Saúde , COVID-19/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Objective: Aedes-borne arboviral diseases were important public health problems in Zhejiang before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study was conducted to investigate the characteristics and change of the epidemiology of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in the province. Methods: Descriptive analyses were conducted to summarize the epidemiology of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases during 2003-2022. Results: A total of 3,125 cases, including 1,968 indigenous cases, were reported during 2003-2022. Approximately three-quarters of imported cases were infected from Southeast Asia. The number of annual imported cases increased during 2013-2019 (R2 = 0.801, p = 0.004) and peaked in 2019. When compared with 2003-2012, all prefecture-level cities witnessed an increase in the annual mean incidence of imported cases in 2013-2019 (0.11-0.42 per 100,000 population vs. 0-0.05 per 100,000 population) but a drastic decrease during 2020-2022 (0-0.03 per 100,000 population). The change in geographical distribution was similar, with 33/91 counties during 2003-2012, 86/91 during 2013-2019, and 14/91 during 2020-2022. The annual mean incidence of indigenous cases in 2013-2019 was 7.79 times that in 2003-2012 (0.44 vs. 0.06 per 100,000 population). No indigenous cases were reported between 2020-2022. Geographical extension of indigenous cases was also noted before 2020-from two counties during 2003-2012 to 44 during 2013-2019. Conclusion: Dengue, chikungunya fever, zika disease, and yellow fever are not endemic in Zhejiang but will be important public health problems for the province in the post-COVID-19 era.
Assuntos
Aedes , Infecções por Arbovirus , COVID-19 , Febre de Chikungunya , Dengue , Infecção por Zika virus , Zika virus , Animais , Dengue/epidemiologia , Infecções por Arbovirus/epidemiologia , Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologiaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Field trials and modelling studies suggest that elimination of dengue transmission may be possible through widespread release of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the insect bacterium Wolbachia pipientis (wMel strain), in conjunction with routine dengue control activities. This study aimed to develop a modelling framework to guide planning for the potential elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta, a city of almost 400 000 people in Java, Indonesia. METHODS: A scenario-tree modelling approach was used to estimate the sensitivity of the dengue surveillance system (including routine hospital-based reporting and primary-care-based enhanced surveillance), and time required to demonstrate elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta city, assuming the detected incidence of dengue decreases to zero in the future. Age and gender were included as risk factors for dengue, and detection nodes included the probability of seeking care, probability of sample collection and testing, diagnostic test sensitivity and probability of case notification. Parameter distributions were derived from health system data or estimated by expert opinion. Alternative simulations were defined based on changes to key parameter values, separately and in combination. RESULTS: For the default simulation, median surveillance system sensitivity was 0.131 (95% PI 0.111 to 0.152) per month. Median confidence in dengue elimination reached 80% after a minimum of 13 months of zero detected dengue cases and 90% confidence after 25 months, across different scenarios. The alternative simulations investigated produced relatively small changes in median system sensitivity and time to elimination. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that with a combination of hospital-based surveillance and enhanced clinic-based surveillance for dengue, an acceptable level of confidence (80% probability) in the elimination of locally acquired dengue can be reached within 2 years. Increasing the surveillance system sensitivity could shorten the time to first ascertainment of elimination of dengue and increase the level of confidence in elimination.
Assuntos
Aedes , Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Animais , Humanos , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Aedes/microbiologia , Incidência , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controleRESUMO
In 2022, a large dengue outbreak was reported in Vietnam, where dengue was endemic. A total of 1889 acute-phase serum samples were collected from patients with suspected dengue at Vung Tau General Hospital, the core hospital in Vung Tau Province, southern Vietnam. Among the 1889 samples analyzed for laboratory confirmation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, 339 positive cases were identified, of which 130 were primary infections and 209 were secondary infections. DENV-2 was the dominant serotype in both primary and secondary infection groups. Phylogenetic analysis based on sequences of the envelope protein-coding region revealed the emergence of a new DENV-2 lineage during this outbreak.
Assuntos
Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Humanos , Vírus da Dengue/genética , Dengue/epidemiologia , Filogenia , Vietnã/epidemiologia , Genótipo , Surtos de Doenças , SorogrupoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Aedes-borne disease risk is associated with contemporary urbanization practices where city developing structures function as a catalyst for creating mosquito breeding habitats. We lack better understanding on how the links between landscape ecology and urban geography contribute to the prevalence and abundance of mosquito and pathogen spread. METHODS: An outdoor longitudinal study in Bengaluru (Karnataka, India) was conducted between February 2021 and June 2022 to examine the effects of macrohabitat types on the diversity and distribution of larval habitats, mosquito species composition, and body size to quantify the risk of dengue outbreak in the landscape context. FINDINGS: A total of 8,717 container breeding sites were inspected, of these 1,316 were wet breeding habitats. A total of 1,619 mosquito larvae representing 16 species from six macrohabitats and nine microhabitats were collected. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus were the dominant species and significantly higher in artificial habitats than in natural habitats. Breeding preference ratio for Aedes species was high in grinding stones and storage containers. The Aedes infestation indices were higher than the WHO threshold and showed significant linear increase from Barren habitat to High density areas. We found Ae. albopictus breeding in sympatry with Ae. aegypti had shorter wing length. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of larval habitats were man-made artificial containers. Landscape ecology drives mosquito diversity and abundance even at a small spatial scale which could be affecting the localized outbreaks. Our findings showed that sampling strategies for mosquito surveillance must include urban environments with non-residential locations and dengue transmission reduction programmes should focus on 'neighbourhood surveillance' as well to prevent and control the rising threat of Aedes-borne diseases.
Assuntos
Aedes , Dengue , Humanos , Animais , Dengue/epidemiologia , Larva , Estudos Longitudinais , Índia/epidemiologia , Ecossistema , Mosquitos VetoresAssuntos
Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Humanos , Peru/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controleRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The introduction of Wolbachia (wMel strain) into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes reduces their capacity to transmit dengue and other arboviruses. Randomised and non-randomised studies in multiple countries have shown significant reductions in dengue incidence following field releases of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti. We report the public health outcomes from phased, large-scale releases of wMel-Ae. aegypti mosquitoes throughout three contiguous cities in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Following pilot releases in 2015-2016, staged city-wide wMel-Ae. aegypti deployments were undertaken in the cities of Bello, Medellín and Itagüí (3.3 million people) between October 2016 and April 2022. The impact of the Wolbachia intervention on dengue incidence was evaluated in two parallel studies. A quasi-experimental study using interrupted time series analysis showed notified dengue case incidence was reduced by 95% in Bello and Medellín and 97% in Itagüí, following establishment of wMel at ≥60% prevalence, compared to the pre-intervention period and after adjusting for seasonal trends. A concurrent clinic-based case-control study with a test-negative design was unable to attain the target sample size of 63 enrolled virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) cases between May 2019 and December 2021, consistent with low dengue incidence throughout the Aburrá Valley following wMel deployments. Nevertheless, VCD incidence was 45% lower (OR 0.55 [95% CI 0.25, 1.17]) and combined VCD/presumptive dengue incidence was 47% lower (OR 0.53 [95% CI 0.30, 0.93]) among participants resident in wMel-treated versus untreated neighbourhoods. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Stable introduction of wMel into local Ae. aegypti populations was associated with a significant and sustained reduction in dengue incidence across three Colombian cities. These results from the largest contiguous Wolbachia releases to-date demonstrate the real-world effectiveness of the method across large urban populations and, alongside previously published results, support the reproducibility of this effectiveness across different ecological settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03631719.
Assuntos
Aedes , Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Wolbachia , Animais , Humanos , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Incidência , Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Controle Biológico de Vetores/métodos , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Mosquitos VetoresRESUMO
Dengue and chikungunya have been endemic in India but have the tendency to cause periodic epidemics, often together, wherein they are termed 'syndemic'. Such a syndemic was observed in 2016 in India which resulted in a further scarcity of already resource-poor specific diagnostic infrastructure even in many urban conglomerates. A cross-sectional study was thus conducted, on 978 fever patients that consulted the ICMR-NIMR fever clinic, New Delhi, in September 2016, with an objective to identify symptom/s that could predict chikungunya with certainty. The overall aim was to rationally channelize the most clinically suitable patients for the required specific diagnosis of chikungunya. Based on their clinical profile, febrile patients attending NIMR's clinic, appropriate laboratory tests and their association analyses were performed. Bivariate analysis on 34 clinical parameters revealed that joint pain, joint swelling, rashes, red spots, weakness, itching, loss of taste, red eyes, and bleeding gums were found to be statistically significantly associated predictors of chikungunya as compared to dengue. While, in multivariate analysis, only four symptoms (joint pain in elbows, joint swelling, itching and bleeding gums) were found in statistically significant association with chikungunya. Hence, based on the results, a clinician may preferably channelize febrile patients with one or more of these four symptoms for chikungunya-specific diagnosis and divert the rest for dengue lab diagnosis in a dengue-chikungunya syndemic setting.
Assuntos
Febre de Chikungunya , Dengue , Humanos , Febre de Chikungunya/diagnóstico , Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Febre de Chikungunya/complicações , Dengue/diagnóstico , Dengue/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Sindemia , Artralgia/complicações , Índia/epidemiologia , Febre/etiologia , Febre/epidemiologia , Prurido/complicaçõesRESUMO
In Brazil, the state of Tocantins, located in north-central Brazil, has experienced a significant number of cases of arboviral disease, particularly Dengue virus (DENV). This study aimed to deepen the knowledge on DENV circulation within that state by conducting full genome sequencing of viral genomes recovered from 61 patients between June 2021 and July 2022. There were a total of 8807 and 20,692 cases in 2021 and 2022, respectively, as reported by the state's Secretary of Health. Nucleotide sequencing confirmed the circulation of DENV serotype 1, genotype V and DENV serotype 2, genotype III in the State. Younger age groups (4 to 43 years old) were mostly affected; however, no significant differences were detected regarding the gender distribution of cases in humans. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the circulating viruses belong to DENV-1 genotype V American and DENV-2 genotype III Southeast Asian/American. The Bayesian analysis of DENV-1 genotype V genomes sequenced here are closely related to genomes previously sequenced in the state of São Paulo. Regarding the DENV-2 genotype III genomes, these clustered in a distinct, well-supported subclade, along with previously reported isolates from the states of Goiás and São Paulo. The findings reported here suggest that multiple introductions of these genotypes occurred in the Tocantins state. This observation highlights the importance of major population centers in Brazil on virus dispersion, such as those observed in other Latin American and North American countries. In the SNP analysis, DENV-1 displayed 122 distinct missense mutations, while DENV-2 had 44, with significant mutations predominantly occurring in the envelope and NS5 proteins. The analyses performed here highlight the concomitant circulation of distinct DENV-1 and -2 genotypes in some Brazilian states, underscoring the dynamic evolution of DENV and the relevance of surveillance efforts in supporting public health policies.
Assuntos
Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Humanos , Pré-Escolar , Criança , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Adulto , Dengue/epidemiologia , Filogenia , Sorogrupo , Brasil/epidemiologia , Teorema de Bayes , GenótipoRESUMO
With nearly half of the world's population being at risk of infection, dengue virus represents a major global health issue. The use of dengue antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) represents an alternative to PCR methods for the diagnosis of acute infections since they display excellent sensitivities and specificities and can be performed outside the laboratory. The high genetic diversity of the dengue virus genome represents a challenge for vaccine development, and the progressive expansion of this virus into previously nonendemic regions justifies the implementation of a genomic surveillance program. In this proof-of-concept study, we show the feasibility of sequencing dengue virus genomes directly from positive Ag-RDT (Standard Q Dengue Duo Test assay, n = 7) cassettes stored up to 31 days at room temperature after testing. For 5 of the 7 samples, a high number of reads were obtained allowing phylogenetic analyses to be carried out to determine not only the serotypes (dengue 1, 2, 3 and 4 were detected) but also the genotypes. Furthermore, in one sample, our unbiased metagenomic next-generation sequencing approach made it possible to detect epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus sequences, an arthropod-transmitted virus in ruminants. To conclude, as such an approach requires no cold storage or freezing of samples, dengue Ag-RDTs represent a very pragmatic and robust alternative for the genomic surveillance of dengue virus.