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1.
PLoS One ; 15(11): e0240800, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33147231

RESUMO

Agricultural carbon emissions have become the constraints of agricultural low-carbon and circular economy development in China. China's agricultural production faces severe pressures and challenges in agricultural carbon reduction. In this paper, we take observation for the 31 provinces in china from 1997 to 2017, to explore the influencing factors and spatial spillover effects of agricultural by estimating spatial panel data models. The results show that China's agricultural carbon emissions will continue to increase in the future, because the growth of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is the main driving force to accelerate the growth of agricultural carbon emissions, but the agricultural input factors will help to reduce the growth of carbon emissions. Moreover, it is proved that economic factors and agricultural input factors have direct effects and spatial spillover effects on agricultural carbon emissions except for agricultural environmental factors. In the short term, strengthening environmental protection may bring some pressure to the economic development of some places, but to achieve high-quality development, we must fundamentally solve the problem of environmental pollution. The conclusion provides important enlightenment and scientific basis for formulating effective policies to curb the growth of CO2 emissions in China.


Assuntos
Agricultura/métodos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Carbono/análise , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Agricultura/economia , Agricultura/tendências , Algoritmos , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , China , Desenvolvimento Econômico/tendências , Poluição Ambiental/análise , Modelos Teóricos
2.
PLoS One ; 15(10): e0240140, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33027300

RESUMO

In the context of supply-side structural reform, revealing the characteristics of spatial-temporal dynamics and influencing factors of China's apple production layout is of great significance to ensure apple supply and demand balance and timely adjustment of industrial policies and regional layout strategies. Based on national and provincial apple production data from 1978 to 2016, this study used the apple production concentration index to analyse the evolution characteristics of regional apple production patterns in China. A theoretical analysis framework was established and a spatial econometric model was used to quantitatively explore the influencing factors of China's apple production layout. The results showed that, first, since the reform and opening-up policy, a general trend of fluctuating growth was found for apple production in China. The centre of apple production layout moved in the southwest direction, with the shift from the Bohai Bay region to the Loess Plateau region. Second, apple production had a significant spatial correlation, while the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually decreased. Third, these changes were significantly influenced by apple comparative income, infrastructure, policies, and climatic conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to continue optimizing and adjusting the apple spatial layout to enhance the technological progress and economic effect of the apple industry and to ensure the stability and balance of regional supply and demand.


Assuntos
Produção Agrícola/tendências , Desenvolvimento Econômico/tendências , Malus , Modelos Econométricos , Políticas , China , Produção Agrícola/economia , Produção Agrícola/organização & administração , Produção Agrícola/estatística & dados numéricos , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Pesquisa Empírica , Mudança Social , Análise Espaço-Temporal
3.
PLoS One ; 15(10): e0240065, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33017439

RESUMO

Ever since the grey system theory was proposed about 40 years ago, its characteristics such as small samples, few data, and uncertainty have been used for study in the literature with increasingly wider scope. Recent studies on grey relation analysis have included static data analyses, and most of them have adopted initial values with only a relational order. Under the same study conditions, if different data preprocessing methods are used, then the relational order will be ranked differently. This study took Taiwan as the object to explore seven economic indices (birth rate (%), Taiwan's total population (thousand people), unemployment rate (%), income per capita (USD), weighted average interest rate on deposits (%), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and national income (NI)) and how they affect the economic growth rate. The traditional static grey relational analysis treated the collected data with taking consideration of time effect which is irrational under some circumstance. An innovative dynamic grey relational analysis was carried out by shifting the raw data due to the time leading or lagging effect which is a mean to improve the capability of traditional grey relational analysis. The differences in analyses between static grey relational analysis and dynamic grey relational analysis via different data preprocessing methods were further discussed, finding that different data preprocessing methods generated a new set of relational orders through the latter. Finally, the prosperity index was used to identify the effects of all factors on economic growth (leading, synchronization, and lagging indices).


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Coeficiente de Natalidade/tendências , Modelos Econômicos , Projetos de Pesquisa , Taiwan , Desemprego/estatística & dados numéricos
4.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 1557, 2020 Oct 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33066742

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the major infectious diseases that seriously endanger people's health. In Shandong province, the relationship between the level of economic development and TB incidence has not been studied. This study aims to provide more research basis for the government to prevent and control TB by exploring the impact of different economic factors on TB incidence. METHODS: By constructing threshold regression model (TRM), we described the extent to which different economic factors contribute to TB registered incidence and differences in TB registered incidence among seventeen cities with different levels of economic development in Shandong province, China, during 2006-2017. Data were retrieved from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. RESULTS: Per capita medical expenditure (regression coefficient, -0.0314462; SD, 0.0079305; P > |t|, 0.000) and per capita savings (regression coefficient, 0.0001924; SD, 0.0000566; P > |t|, 0.001) passed the significance test at the level of 1%.They are the two economic indicators that have the greatest impact on TB registered incidence. Through the threshold test, we selected the per capita savings as the threshold variable. In the three stages of per capita savings (<9772.8086 China Yuan(CNY); 9772.8086-33,835.5391 CNY; >33,835.5391 CNY), rural per capita income always has a significant negative impact on the TB registered incidence (The regression coefficients are - 0.0015682, - 0.0028132 and - 0.0022253 respectively. P is 0.007,0.000 and 0.000 respectively.).In cities with good economies, TB registered incidence was 38.30% in 2006 and dropped to 25.10% by 2017. In cities with moderate economies, TB registered incidence peaked in 2008 at 43.10% and dropped to 27.1% by 2017.In poorer cities, TB registered incidence peaked in 2008 at 56.30% and dropped to 28.9% in 2017. CONCLUSION: We found that per capita savings and per capita medical expenditure are most closely related to the TB incidence. Therefore, relevant departments should formulate a more complete medical system and medical insurance policy to effectively solve the problem of "difficult and expensive medical treatment". In order to further reduce the TB incidence, in addition to timely and accurate diagnosis and treatment, it is more important for governments to increase investment in medicine and health care.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Sistema de Registros
6.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0239256, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32941531

RESUMO

The principal questions this research will address are: 1) whether a higher propensity to visit websites of interest to actual or nascent entrepreneurs is associated with higher rates of new firms births in an area; 2) whether a higher propensity to visit websites of interest to those working on design problems is associated with the quality of business in terms of orientations toward design or innovation; and 3) whether a higher propensity to visit websites of interest to those pursuing arts as an avocation is associated with an increased ability to find nonobvious solutions that might be manifest in business quality. The unique data that allow examining these questions were compiled from billions of web hits by geo-located devices. These data are combined with both detailed establishment level data with reliable information on the innovation and design orientation of firms, and a longitudinal census of all establishments with a formal credit relationship in the U.S. The findings confirm that businesses located in areas with a high propensity to visit design and arts avocation websites are more likely to pursue more far ranging innovation and are more likely to integrate design into their innovation processes. Firm birth rates are higher in areas with a high propensity to visit websites of interest to entrepreneurs, and the existence of high growth firms is strongly associated with demonstrated interest in design and arts avocation websites. The possible uses of these nontraditional measures as indicators of economic dynamism are discussed.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Contrato de Risco/estatística & dados numéricos , Internet/estatística & dados numéricos , Invenções/estatística & dados numéricos , Computadores/estatística & dados numéricos , Utilização de Equipamentos e Suprimentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Estados Unidos
7.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0238017, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32853265

RESUMO

Every nation prioritizes the inclusive economic growth and development of all regions. However, we observe that economic activities are clustered in space, which results in a disparity in per-capita income among different regions. A complexity-based method was proposed by Hidalgo and Hausmann [PNAS 106, 10570-10575 (2009)] to explain the large gaps in per-capita income across countries. Although there have been extensive studies on countries' economic complexity using international export data, studies on economic complexity at the regional level are relatively less studied. Here, we study the industrial sector complexity of prefectures in Japan based on the basic information of more than one million firms. We aggregate the data as a bipartite network of prefectures and industrial sectors. We decompose the bipartite network as a prefecture-prefecture network and sector-sector network, which reveals the relationships among them. Similarities among the prefectures and among the sectors are measured using a metric. From these similarity matrices, we cluster the prefectures and sectors using the minimal spanning tree technique. The computed economic complexity index from the structure of the bipartite network shows a high correlation with macroeconomic indicators, such as per-capita gross prefectural product and prefectural income per person. We argue that this index reflects the present economic performance and hidden potential of the prefectures for future growth.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Algoritmos , Japão , Modelos Econômicos
8.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 901, 2020 Jun 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32522178

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Hypertension may be influenced by multiple factors, including social and individual determinants. Regional and individual economic disparity in China is closely associated with such factors that may give rise to diverse health outcomes. This study examines the relationship between regional economic development, household income, gender and hypertension prevalence in China. METHODS: This study utilized data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), a population-based study on half a million Chinese adults from 10 geographically distinct regions. Hypertension was identified by a measured systolic blood pressure/diastolic blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg or receiving treatment. Regional economic development was inferred from GDP per capita at the time of the study. A logistic regression based method was used in calculating the prevalence of hypertension in different household income, regional economic development, and gender groups, adjusting for demographic, social-economic and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension was the lowest in the medium GDP per capita areas in both male (31.62, 95% CI: 31.26-31.98%) and female (22.85, 95% CI: 22.50-23.19%) as compared to that in the low GDP per capita regions (male: 32.75, 95% CI 32.41-33.08%; female: 32.12, 95% CI: 31.78-32.47%) and high GDP per capita areas (male: 39.74, 95% CI: 39.33-40.16%; female: 35.19, 95% CI: 34.74-35.65%). There was an inverse relationship between hypertension and household income in the low and high GDP areas and an U-shaped association in the medium GDP per capita areas. Higher hypertension prevalence was observed in males across all GDP per capita areas. The negative correlation between hypertension and household income (across all GDP per captia areas) was stronger in females than in males. CONCLUSIONS: The present study underlined the important influence of regional economic development, household income and gender on hypertension. Interventions for hypertension prevention and management should take into consideration the influence of sex difference and socioeconomic disparities at both micro- and macro- levels, in addition to a person-centered approach.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , Renda/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Idoso , Pressão Sanguínea , China/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Estilo de Vida , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Fatores Sexuais , Fatores Socioeconômicos
9.
PLoS One ; 15(4): e0232293, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32353047

RESUMO

Equipment manufacturing industry is one of the major industries of the Chinese economy. Previous researches have revealed that the industry has dilemmas of unreasonable industrial structure and high pollution. Using the data of 30 provinces in 2006-2015 in China, this study calculated a comprehensive pollution indicator when estimating the possible pollution reduction brought by the optimization of industrial structure and then evaluated the reasonable level of capital allocation of provinces and industries by using the methods of nonlinear programming and stochastic frontier method. Under the target of collaborative emission reduction, the results show that the optimized output of China's equipment manufacturing industry could be increased by 5.42%, the energy intensity could be reduced by about 10.4%, and the comprehensive emission intensity could be reduced by about 7.47%. Due to the industry heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity, industrial capacity should be transferred between industries and regions. Since the capital investment in the equipment manufacturing industry is significantly mismatched between industries and regions, the capital allocation of provincial industries in China needs to be adjusted properly. This study provides theoretically and practically reference for collaborative pollution reduction, industry restructure, spatial layout and capital investment, which contributes to achieving the stereoscopic optimization of equipment manufacturing industry.


Assuntos
Poluição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Poluição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Indústria Manufatureira/estatística & dados numéricos , Dióxido de Carbono/química , China , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Investimentos em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos
11.
PLoS One ; 15(4): e0229937, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32240180

RESUMO

Here we argue that due to the difference between real GDP growth rate and nominal deposit rate, a demand pull inflation is induced into the economy. On the other hand, due to the difference between real GDP growth rate and nominal lending rate, a cost push inflation is created. We compare the performance of our model to the Fisherian one by using Toda and Yamamoto approach of testing Granger Causality in the context of non-stationary data. We then use ARDL Bounds Testing approach to cross-check the results obtained from T-Y approach.


Assuntos
Conta Bancária/estatística & dados numéricos , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Inflação/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Econômicos , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Produto Interno Bruto/tendências , Humanos
12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32151073

RESUMO

Industrial enterprises have provided outstanding contributions to economic development in countries around the world. The green development of industrial enterprises has received widespread attention from researchers. However, existing research lacks the tools to scientifically measure the green development behavior and performance of industrial enterprises. According to the theory of green development behavior and performance of industrial enterprises (GDBP-IE), the aim of this paper is to provide a tool for scientifically measuring such behavior and performance. This paper determined the initial scale through literature analysis and expert discussions and obtained valid samples from 31 provincial administrative regions in China through field and online surveys (N = 853). The exploratory factor analysis method was used to test the reliability and validity of the scale. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The reliability and validity of the GDBP-IE scale are good; (2) the GDBP-IE scale, with a total of 70 items, comprises four sub-scales: The internal factors sub-scale, the external factors sub-scale, the green development behavior of industrial enterprises sub-scale, and the green development performance of industrial enterprises sub-scale. Among them, the internal factors sub-scale, with a total of 13 items, consists of two dimensions: Corporate tangible resources and corporate intangible resources. The external factors sub-scale, with a total of 23 items, consists of three dimensions: Market environment; public supervision; policy and institutional environment. The green development behavior of industrial enterprises sub-scale, with a total of 18 items, consists of two dimensions: Clean production behavior and green supply chain management practice. The green development performance of industrial enterprises sub-scale, with a total of 16 items, comprises three dimensions: Corporate social performance, corporate financial performance, and corporate environmental performance. The findings enrich the research on corporate organizational behavior, green behavior, and green development system theory, and provide tools for further empirical testing. The development and verification of green development behavior and performance of industrial enterprises can help guide various types of industrial enterprises in transforming to green development and can provide a reference for the government to formulate targeted green development policies.


Assuntos
Indústrias , Desenvolvimento Sustentável , China , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Indústrias/normas , Indústrias/estatística & dados numéricos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32013064

RESUMO

With China's sustained economic development and constant increase in national income, Chinese nationals' tourism consumption rate increases. As a major Chinese economic development engine, the domestic tourism industry has entered a transition period operation pattern featured by diversified products. Among them, as a new hot spot of the tourism industry in China, ecological tourism has enjoyed rapid development, with great potential. Thus, the ecological value evaluation of forest ecological tourism demonstration areas is very important to the domestic tourism industry. In this paper, we propose some Dombi Heronian mean operators with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IVIFNs). Then, two MADM (multiple attribute decision making) methods are proposed based on IVIFWDHM (interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted Dombi Heronian mean) and IVIFWDGHM (interval-valued intuitionistic weighted Dombi geometric Heronian mean) operators. Finally, we gave an experimental case for evaluating the ecological value of forest ecological tourism demonstration area to show the proposed decision methods.


Assuntos
Ecologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Florestas , Turismo Médico/estatística & dados numéricos , China , Tomada de Decisões , Lógica Fuzzy , Humanos
14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32013117

RESUMO

This study seeks to investigate the endogenous relationship between financial leverage, economic growth and environmental degradation in China by employing a the generalized moments method (GMM) panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach with a panel of data from China's 30 provinces over the period 1997-2016. Three key results arise. First, financial leverage can significantly lessen economic growth, while economic growth decreases financial leverage. Second, economic growth provides an important impetus to boost carbon emissions. Finally, carbon emissions have inversely pushed up financial leverage. These results reflect to some extent China's impressive rate of economic growth, which has been attained via continuously supporting inefficient state-owned enterprises and heavy and polluting industries through bank loans. The results are further supported by the variance decomposition. The findings provide valuable policy implications for deepening financial supply-side structure reform to transform and upgrade China's real economy. These policy implications are conductive to developing a low-carbon economy.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico/tendências , Poluição Ambiental/economia , Poluição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Gases de Efeito Estufa/efeitos adversos , Gases de Efeito Estufa/economia , Resíduos Industriais/economia , China , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Resíduos Industriais/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Estatísticos
15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31947802

RESUMO

Hydropower development brings a very large number of external benefits which are enjoyed by the beneficiaries for free. These external benefits are defined and the beneficiaries are identified. Models to measure the external benefits are established to reflect their dynamic changes at different periods. To improve the benefit sharing mechanism, a model to internalize these external benefits is established to further compensate those adversely affected. The Z hydropower project in China is taken as the example to calculate its external benefits and their internalization. The external benefits enjoyed by beneficiaries in the surrounding and downstream areas gradually increase from 18 million US dollars in 2006 to 114 million US dollars in 2065, and their compensation standards increase from 4 million US dollars in 2006 to 97 million US dollars in 2065. The external benefits enjoyed by beneficiaries in the power receiving areas increase from 125 million US dollars in 2015 to the maximum of 133 million in 2026, and their compensation standards increase from 38 million US dollars in 2015 to the maximum of 133 million US dollars in 2033. Sharing of external benefits can improve the benefit-sharing mechanism, and properly redistribute the external benefits of hydropower development.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Centrais Elétricas/economia , Centrais Elétricas/estatística & dados numéricos , China , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos
16.
Int J Equity Health ; 19(1): 12, 2020 01 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31964379

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Urban-rural disparities have been extensively investigated, while most investigators overlooked urban-suburban-rural variations in population health. Although regional disparities in East-West China have been largely discussed, limited attention has been directed to the interaction between regional differences and urban-suburban-rural disparities. This study aims to analyze urban-suburban-rural variations in all-cause mortality rates across four geographic regions in China. METHODS: Data came from China's National Census Survey and public statistical yearbooks in 2000 and 2010. Urban districts, county-level cities, and counties were respectively defined as urban, suburban, and rural areas. We obtained 2322 areas, including 2148 areas with two observations and 174 areas with only one observation. Data visualization was performed to depict geographic variations and changes in all-cause mortality rates. Five hierarchical linear regression analyses with generalized estimating equations (GEE) were employed to analyze variations in all-cause mortality rates over time. Demographic and socioeconomic attributes were introduced as covariates. RESULTS: Despite an overall decline in all-cause mortality rate, rural residents generally achieved worse health than urban and suburban counterparts. In contrast, urban-suburban disparities could be fully explained by demographic and socioeconomic differences. In addition, Northeastern and Central residents achieved better health than Eastern and Western residents. Last, there existed urban/suburban-rural disparities in all regions, except Northeastern, where urban/suburban-rural disparities were eliminated after controlling for socioeconomic and demographic attributes. CONCLUSION: Even though suburban and rural areas were often merged, there exist urban/suburban-rural disparities in population health. Furthermore, urban/suburban-rural disparities vary across regions.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Mortalidade/tendências , Saúde da População/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , China/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , População Rural/estatística & dados numéricos , População Suburbana/estatística & dados numéricos , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos
17.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(4): 1935-1940, 2020 01 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31932433

RESUMO

A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs-a mechanism often thought to drive climate-conflict relationships-is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect more frequent bad years. Theory suggests a nonmonotonic relation between climate variability and conflict that emerges as agents adapt and adjust their behavior to the new income distribution. We identify 3 measurable statistics of the income distribution that are each unambiguously associated with conflict likelihood. Jointly, these statistics offer a unique signature to distinguish opportunity costs from competing mechanisms that may relate climate anomalies to conflict.


Assuntos
Conflitos Armados/economia , Mudança Climática , Produtos Agrícolas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Teóricos , Violência/economia , Humanos , Fatores de Risco , Abastecimento de Água/estatística & dados numéricos
18.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 27(8): 7835-7850, 2020 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31889284

RESUMO

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important driving force for economic growth and technological innovation, but it also brings environmental pollution problems along with economic development. From the perspective of technological innovation, the impact of FDI on China's environmental pollution deserves further study. With the spatial econometric tools employed to account for the potential spatial dependence of environmental pollution, this study uses the panel data of 30 province-level units in China from 1998 to 2016 to investigate the impact of FDI and technological innovation on environmental pollution. The results show that increased FDI can reduce environmental pollution, confirming the existence of the "pollution halo hypothesis"; technological innovation can reduce the emissions of sulfur dioxide and smoke dust but increase the chemical oxygen demand. Therefore, vigorous introduction of foreign capital is good for sustainable development for government, but it is also necessary to pay attention to screening and identifying environment-friendly enterprises with advanced production technology and management experience and to reject high-pollution and high-energy-consuming enterprises eliminated by developed countries.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Investimentos em Saúde , Dióxido de Carbono/química , China , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Poluição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Internacionalidade
19.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 27(2): 2248-2263, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31776902

RESUMO

The related literature reveal that the papers on environmental pollution do not sufficiently analyse the cement production which is an important determinant of air pollution and health problems by using econometric methods. To fill this gap, this paper aims to examine the relationship between cement production, air pollution, mortality rate, and economic growth by employing MS Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (MScBVAR) and Markov Switching Bayesian Granger causality (MScBGC) approaches from 1960 to 2017 for China, Brazil, India, Turkey and the USA. MSIA(2)-BVAR(1) model for China, MSIAH(2)-BVAR(3) models for India, MSIAH(3)-BVAR(2) for Brazil, and MSIAH(3)-BVAR(1) for Turkey, and MSIAH(2)-BVAR(2) for the USA were selected. The MScBGC results revealed that the cement production is granger cause of mortality rate, air pollution, and economic growth in all regimes for China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and the USA.


Assuntos
Poluição do Ar , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Brasil , Dióxido de Carbono , China , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , Índia , Turquia
20.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 27(2): 2374-2385, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31782096

RESUMO

This paper is a maiden empirical attempt to analyze the dynamic causal linkages among urban agglomeration, electricity consumption, construction industry, and economic performance, making use of simultaneous structural equations. A national panel of 30 provinces and three sub-national panels of China, for time span 2000 to 2016, have been estimated employing system and difference generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. A construction industry-augmented model of economic growth has been proposed, incorporating construction industry and urban agglomeration as exogenous shocks to the aggregate production and electricity consumption as the input of production function. The core empirical results are first, the urban agglomeration and construction industry positively cause electricity consumption but are not caused by the same. It revealed the critical role played by urban agglomeration along with construction industry in boosting electricity consumption. Second, the economic performance positively causes electricity consumption, urban agglomeration, and construction industry and is also caused by the same. Third, urban agglomeration causes the construction industry and is caused by the same. It exposed the mutual role of urban agglomeration and urban industry in reinforcing each other in the times of high economic performance. Finally, among the three regions, the eastern zone is found to be strongest in terms of linkages among urban agglomeration, construction industry, electricity consumption, and economic performance. The intermediate zone is moderately strong, while the western zone is found to have the least strong linkages as compared with the two regions. These results are in line with the sub-national level of economic development of China. These findings, in terms of statistical significance, are highly robust across all the panels. Furthermore, depending upon empirical results, the related strategies are proposed.


Assuntos
Indústria da Construção , Desenvolvimento Econômico/estatística & dados numéricos , China , Eletricidade , Emprego
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