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1.
Cells ; 10(6)2021 05 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34070971

RESUMO

The recent SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has refocused attention to the betacoronaviruses, only eight years after the emergence of another zoonotic betacoronavirus, the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). While the wild source of SARS-CoV-2 may be disputed, for MERS-CoV, dromedaries are considered as source of zoonotic human infections. Testing 100 immune-response genes in 121 dromedaries from United Arab Emirates (UAE) for potential association with present MERS-CoV infection, we identified candidate genes with important functions in the adaptive, MHC-class I (HLA-A-24-like) and II (HLA-DPB1-like), and innate immune response (PTPN4, MAGOHB), and in cilia coating the respiratory tract (DNAH7). Some of these genes previously have been associated with viral replication in SARS-CoV-1/-2 in humans, others have an important role in the movement of bronchial cilia. These results suggest similar host genetic pathways associated with these betacoronaviruses, although further work is required to better understand the MERS-CoV disease dynamics in both dromedaries and humans.


Assuntos
Imunidade Adaptativa/genética , Camelus/virologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/imunologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/imunologia , Imunidade Inata/genética , Zoonoses/imunologia , Animais , Anticorpos Antivirais , Brônquios/citologia , Brônquios/fisiologia , COVID-19/genética , COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/virologia , Camelus/genética , Camelus/imunologia , Cílios/fisiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/genética , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/virologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/genética , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Reservatórios de Doenças/virologia , Feminino , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Interações entre Hospedeiro e Microrganismos/genética , Interações entre Hospedeiro e Microrganismos/imunologia , Humanos , Masculino , Coronavírus da Síndrome Respiratória do Oriente Médio/imunologia , Coronavírus da Síndrome Respiratória do Oriente Médio/isolamento & purificação , Coronavírus da Síndrome Respiratória do Oriente Médio/patogenicidade , Mucosa Respiratória/citologia , Mucosa Respiratória/fisiologia , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , Emirados Árabes Unidos , Replicação Viral/genética , Replicação Viral/imunologia , Zoonoses/genética , Zoonoses/transmissão , Zoonoses/virologia
3.
Cell ; 184(8): 1960-1961, 2021 04 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33831378

RESUMO

The events of the past year have underscored the serious and rapid threat that emerging viruses pose to global health. However, much of the rapid progress in understanding and combating SARS-CoV-2 was made possible because of the decades of important groundwork laid from researchers studying other emergent infectious diseases. The 2021 John Dirks Canada Gairdner Global Health award recognizes the contributions of Joseph Sriyal Malik Peiris and Yi Guan toward understanding the origins and options for control of newly emerging infectious disease outbreaks in Asia, notably zoonotic influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Cell's Nicole Neuman corresponded with Yi Guan about his path to becoming a viral infection sleuth and the challenges of understanding emerging pathogens and their origins. Excerpts of their exchange are included here.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes , Surtos de Doenças , Influenza Humana , Zoonoses , Animais , Ásia , /transmissão , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/história , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças/história , Saúde Global , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/história , Influenza Humana/transmissão , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Zoonoses/transmissão
4.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(15)2021 04 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33822740

RESUMO

The death toll and economic loss resulting from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are stark reminders that we are vulnerable to zoonotic viral threats. Strategies are needed to identify and characterize animal viruses that pose the greatest risk of spillover and spread in humans and inform public health interventions. Using expert opinion and scientific evidence, we identified host, viral, and environmental risk factors contributing to zoonotic virus spillover and spread in humans. We then developed a risk ranking framework and interactive web tool, SpillOver, that estimates a risk score for wildlife-origin viruses, creating a comparative risk assessment of viruses with uncharacterized zoonotic spillover potential alongside those already known to be zoonotic. Using data from testing 509,721 samples from 74,635 animals as part of a virus discovery project and public records of virus detections around the world, we ranked the spillover potential of 887 wildlife viruses. Validating the risk assessment, the top 12 were known zoonotic viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Several newly detected wildlife viruses ranked higher than known zoonotic viruses. Using a scientifically informed process, we capitalized on the recent wealth of virus discovery data to systematically identify and prioritize targets for investigation. The publicly accessible SpillOver platform can be used by policy makers and health scientists to inform research and public health interventions for prevention and rapid control of disease outbreaks. SpillOver is a living, interactive database that can be refined over time to continue to improve the quality and public availability of information on viral threats to human health.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes , Pandemias , Zoonoses , Animais , /transmissão , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Humanos , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Zoonoses/transmissão
5.
Science ; 372(6541)2021 04 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33926925

RESUMO

Although almost all mycobacterial species are saprophytic environmental organisms, a few, such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis, have evolved to cause transmissible human infection. By analyzing the recent emergence and spread of the environmental organism M. abscessus through the global cystic fibrosis population, we have defined key, generalizable steps involved in the pathogenic evolution of mycobacteria. We show that epigenetic modifiers, acquired through horizontal gene transfer, cause saltational increases in the pathogenic potential of specific environmental clones. Allopatric parallel evolution during chronic lung infection then promotes rapid increases in virulence through mutations in a discrete gene network; these mutations enhance growth within macrophages but impair fomite survival. As a consequence, we observe constrained pathogenic evolution while person-to-person transmission remains indirect, but postulate accelerated pathogenic adaptation once direct transmission is possible, as observed for M. tuberculosis Our findings indicate how key interventions, such as early treatment and cross-infection control, might restrict the spread of existing mycobacterial pathogens and prevent new, emergent ones.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/microbiologia , Evolução Molecular , Aptidão Genética , Pulmão/microbiologia , Infecções por Mycobacterium não Tuberculosas/microbiologia , Mycobacterium abscessus/genética , Mycobacterium abscessus/patogenicidade , Pneumonia Bacteriana/microbiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Conjuntos de Dados como Assunto , Epigênese Genética , Transferência Genética Horizontal , Genoma Bacteriano , Humanos , Mutação , Infecções por Mycobacterium não Tuberculosas/transmissão , Pneumonia Bacteriana/transmissão , Virulência/genética
6.
Arch Virol ; 166(5): 1455-1462, 2021 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33704558

RESUMO

During the dengue epidemic in Yunnan Province, China, during 2019, a concurrent outbreak of chikungunya occurred in the city of Ruili, which is located in the southwest of the province, adjacent to Myanmar. As part of this outbreak, three neonatal cases of infection with indigenous chikungunya virus from mother-to-child (vertical) transmission were observed. Isolates of chikungunya virus were obtained from 37 serum samples of patients with chikungunya during this outbreak, and a phylogenetic analysis of these isolates revealed that they belong to the Indian Ocean subclade of the East/Central/South African genotype. The E1 genes of these viruses did not harbor the A226V mutation.


Assuntos
Febre de Chikungunya/virologia , Vírus Chikungunya/isolamento & purificação , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/virologia , Transmissão Vertical de Doenças Infecciosas , Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Febre de Chikungunya/transmissão , Vírus Chikungunya/classificação , Vírus Chikungunya/genética , China/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças , Feminino , Genoma Viral/genética , Genótipo , Humanos , Masculino , Mutação , Filogenia , RNA Viral/genética , Proteínas Virais/genética
7.
Cell Host Microbe ; 29(2): 160-164, 2021 02 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33539765

RESUMO

The emergence of alternate variants of SARS-CoV-2 due to ongoing adaptations in humans and following human-to-animal transmission has raised concern over the efficacy of vaccines against new variants. We describe human-to-animal transmission (zooanthroponosis) of SARS-CoV-2 and its implications for faunal virus persistence and vaccine-mediated immunity.


Assuntos
/veterinária , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/veterinária , Zoonoses/transmissão , Zoonoses/virologia , Animais , /transmissão , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/virologia , Reservatórios de Doenças/veterinária , Reservatórios de Doenças/virologia , Humanos , Imunidade , Vacinas Virais/imunologia
8.
J Med Microbiol ; 70(3)2021 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33599604

RESUMO

Over a decade ago, a multidrug-resistant nosocomial fungus Candida auris emerged worldwide and has since become a significant challenge for clinicians and microbiologists across the globe. A resilient pathogen, C. auris survives harsh disinfectants, desiccation and high-saline environments. It readily colonizes the inanimate environment, susceptible patients and causes invasive infections that exact a high toll. Prone to misidentification by conventional microbiology techniques, C. auris rapidly acquires multiple genetic determinants that confer multidrug resistance. Whole-genome sequencing has identified four distinct clades of C. auris, and possibly a fifth one, in circulation. Even as our understanding of this formidable pathogen grows, the nearly simultaneous emergence of its distinct clades in different parts of the world, followed by their rapid global spread, remains largely unexplained. We contend that certain host-pathogen-environmental factors have been evolving along adverse trajectories for the last few decades, especially in regions where C. auris originally appeared, until these factors possibly reached a tipping point to compel the evolution, emergence and spread of C. auris. Comparative genomics has helped identify several resistance mechanisms in C. auris that are analogous to those seen in other Candida species, but they fail to fully explain how high-level resistance rapidly develops in this yeast. A better understanding of these unresolved aspects is essential not only for the effective management of C. auris patients, hospital outbreaks and its global spread but also for forecasting and tackling novel resistant pathogens that might emerge in the future. In this review, we discuss the emergence, spread and resistance of C. auris, and propose future investigations to tackle this resilient pathogen.


Assuntos
Candida/fisiologia , Candidíase/microbiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/microbiologia , Farmacorresistência Fúngica Múltipla , Microbiologia Ambiental , Anti-Infecciosos/farmacologia , Anti-Infecciosos/uso terapêutico , Candida/classificação , Candida/isolamento & purificação , Candida/patogenicidade , Candidíase/epidemiologia , Candidíase/transmissão , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Infecção Hospitalar/epidemiologia , Infecção Hospitalar/microbiologia , Infecção Hospitalar/transmissão , Saúde Global , Humanos , Virulência
9.
Crit Rev Microbiol ; 47(3): 307-322, 2021 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33570448

RESUMO

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has made us wonder what led to its occurrence and what can be done to avoid such events in the future. As we document, one changing circumstance that is resulting in the emergence and changing the expression of viral diseases in both plants and animals is climate change. Of note, the rapidly changing environment and weather conditions such as excessive flooding, droughts, and forest fires have raised concerns about the global ecosystem's security, sustainability, and balance. In this review, we discuss the main consequences of climate change and link these to how they impact the appearance of new viral pathogens, how they may facilitate transmission between usual and novel hosts, and how they may also affect the host's ability to manage the infection. We emphasize how changes in temperature and humidity and other events associated with climate change influence the reservoirs of viral infections, their transmission by insects and other intermediates, their survival outside the host as well the success of infection in plants and animals. We conclude that climate change has mainly detrimental consequences for the emergence, transmission, and outcome of viral infections and plead the case for halting and hopefully reversing this dangerous event.


Assuntos
/transmissão , Mudança Climática , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Doenças das Plantas/virologia , Viroses/transmissão , Animais , Organismos Aquáticos/virologia , /etiologia , Quirópteros/virologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/complicações , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/etiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/imunologia , Produtos Agrícolas/virologia , Reservatórios de Doenças/virologia , Vetores de Doenças/classificação , Abastecimento de Alimentos , Humanos , Umidade , Doenças das Plantas/imunologia , Doenças dos Primatas/transmissão , Doenças dos Primatas/virologia , Primatas , Chuva , Estações do Ano , Temperatura , Viroses/complicações , Viroses/etiologia , Viroses/imunologia
10.
Trends Parasitol ; 37(3): 181-184, 2021 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33454218

RESUMO

The illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is a criminal practice bringing several ecological and public health consequences, such as the spreading of zoonotic pathogens and/or the introduction of exotic species of animals into new geographical areas. Here, we discuss potential risks of IWT on the spreading and emergence of zoonotic pathogens.


Assuntos
Animais Exóticos , Animais Selvagens , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Zoonoses/transmissão , Animais , Comércio/ética , Comércio/legislação & jurisprudência , Humanos
11.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 151, 2021 01 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33420058

RESUMO

Mosquito-borne viruses threaten the Caribbean due to the region's tropical climate and seasonal reception of international tourists. Outbreaks of chikungunya and Zika have demonstrated the rapidity with which these viruses can spread. Concurrently, dengue fever cases have climbed over the past decade. Sustainable disease control measures are urgently needed to quell virus transmission and prevent future outbreaks. Here, to improve upon current control methods, we analyze temporal and spatial patterns of chikungunya, Zika, and dengue outbreaks reported in the Dominican Republic between 2012 and 2018. The viruses that cause these outbreaks are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which are sensitive to seasonal climatological variability. We evaluate whether climate and the spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue outbreaks could explain patterns of emerging disease outbreaks. We find that emerging disease outbreaks were robust to the climatological and spatio-temporal constraints defining seasonal dengue outbreak dynamics, indicating that constant surveillance is required to prevent future health crises.


Assuntos
Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Doenças Endêmicas/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Aedes/virologia , Animais , Febre de Chikungunya/prevenção & controle , Febre de Chikungunya/transmissão , Febre de Chikungunya/virologia , Vírus Chikungunya/isolamento & purificação , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/prevenção & controle , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/virologia , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Dengue/transmissão , Dengue/virologia , Vírus da Dengue/isolamento & purificação , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , República Dominicana/epidemiologia , Doenças Endêmicas/prevenção & controle , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Controle de Mosquitos , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Adulto Jovem , Zika virus/isolamento & purificação , Infecção por Zika virus/prevenção & controle , Infecção por Zika virus/transmissão , Infecção por Zika virus/virologia
12.
Viruses ; 13(1)2020 12 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33375455

RESUMO

The emergence of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) as linked to land-use changes, especially the growing agricultural intensification and expansion efforts in rural parts of Africa, is of growing health concern. This places an additional burden on health systems as drugs, vaccines, and effective vector-control measures against arboviruses and their vectors remain lacking. An integrated One Health approach holds potential in the control and prevention of arboviruses. Land-use changes favour invasion by invasive alien plants (IAPs) and investigating their impact on mosquito populations may offer a new dimension to our understanding of arbovirus emergence. Of prime importance to understand is how IAPs influence mosquito life-history traits and how this may affect transmission of arboviruses to mammalian hosts, questions that we are exploring in this review. Potential effects of IAPs may be significant, including supporting the proliferation of immature and adult stages of mosquito vectors, providing additional nutrition and suitable microhabitats, and a possible interaction between ingested secondary plant metabolites and arboviruses. We conclude that aspects of vector biology are differentially affected by individual IAPs and that while some plants may have the potential to indirectly increase the risk of transmission of certain arboviruses by their direct interaction with the vectors, the reverse holds for other IAPs. In addition, we highlight priority research areas to improve our understanding of the potential health impacts of IAPs.


Assuntos
Infecções por Arbovirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Arbovirus/transmissão , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Culicidae/virologia , Espécies Introduzidas , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Plantas , Animais , Infecções por Arbovirus/virologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/virologia , Ecossistema , Humanos
13.
Front Public Health ; 8: 596944, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33324602

RESUMO

The World Health Organization defines a zoonosis as any infection naturally transmissible from vertebrate animals to humans. The pandemic of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been classified as a zoonotic disease, however, no animal reservoir has yet been found, so this classification is premature. We propose that COVID-19 should instead be classified an "emerging infectious disease (EID) of probable animal origin." To explore if COVID-19 infection fits our proposed re-categorization vs. the contemporary definitions of zoonoses, we reviewed current evidence of infection origin and transmission routes of SARS-CoV-2 virus and described this in the context of known zoonoses, EIDs and "spill-over" events. Although the initial one hundred COVID-19 patients were presumably exposed to the virus at a seafood Market in China, and despite the fact that 33 of 585 swab samples collected from surfaces and cages in the market tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, no virus was isolated directly from animals and no animal reservoir was detected. Elsewhere, SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in animals including domesticated cats, dogs, and ferrets, as well as captive-managed mink, lions, tigers, deer, and mice confirming zooanthroponosis. Other than circumstantial evidence of zoonotic cases in mink farms in the Netherlands, no cases of natural transmission from wild or domesticated animals have been confirmed. More than 40 million human COVID-19 infections reported appear to be exclusively through human-human transmission. SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 do not meet the WHO definition of zoonoses. We suggest SARS-CoV-2 should be re-classified as an EID of probable animal origin.


Assuntos
/classificação , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes , Zoonoses , Animais , Animais Selvagens , China , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/classificação , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/virologia , Humanos , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Zoonoses/classificação , Zoonoses/transmissão , Zoonoses/virologia
16.
Infect Dis Poverty ; 9(1): 140, 2020 Oct 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33028426

RESUMO

Most human pathogens originate from non-human hosts and certain pathogens persist in animal reservoirs. The transmission of such pathogens to humans may lead to self-sustaining chains of transmission. These pathogens represent the highest risk for future pandemics. For their prevention, the transmission over the species barrier - although rare - should, by all means, be avoided. In the current COVID-19 pandemic, surprisingly though, most of the current research concentrates on the control by drugs and vaccines, while comparatively little scientific inquiry focuses on future prevention. Already in 2012, the World Bank recommended to engage in a systemic One Health approach for zoonoses control, considering integrated surveillance-response and control of human and animal diseases for primarily economic reasons. First examples, like integrated West Nile virus surveillance in mosquitos, wild birds, horses and humans in Italy show evidence of financial savings from a closer cooperation of human and animal health sectors. Provided a zoonotic origin can be ascertained for the COVID-19 pandemic, integrated wildlife, domestic animal and humans disease surveillance-response may contribute to prevent future outbreaks. In conclusion, the earlier a zoonotic pathogen can be detected in the environment, in wildlife or in domestic animals; and the better human, animal and environmental surveillance communicate with each other to prevent an outbreak, the lower are the cumulative costs.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Zoonoses/prevenção & controle , Doenças dos Animais/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Animais/prevenção & controle , Doenças dos Animais/transmissão , Animais , Betacoronavirus , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Reservatórios de Doenças/veterinária , Reservatórios de Doenças/virologia , Monitoramento Epidemiológico/veterinária , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Saúde Única , Pandemias/economia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Zoonoses/transmissão
17.
Rev Esp Salud Publica ; 942020 Sep 30.
Artigo em Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32994390

RESUMO

In the midst of the SARS-CoV-2 public-health pandemic emergency, it is important to understand its zoonotic origin and how an animal virus finally infects humans. Identifying the circumstances in which a virus jumps species boundaries to infect humans so productively is objective of this work and will help us to determine the epidemiology and pathogenisis of this agent. Nowadays, it is known that bats serve as reservoir hosts for virus progenitor, but determine the possibility of a potential intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2 is still a challenge. Scientific investigations stablish the natural selection theory as the most probable (natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer or acquired mutations in humans following crossing species barrier). It is necessary to find out how SARS-CoV-2 emerged, its rapidly spreads within a community and the optimal context in which this virus binds to human receptor. One Health is a multisectoral, collaborative and transdisciplinary approach which allows a cooperative working between animal and human health that will help us to introduce some possible control measures that might reduce the spread of the virus; improving sanitary management, identifying new outbreaks and preventing future zoonotic and pandemic events.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Quirópteros/virologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Reservatórios de Doenças/virologia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Zoonoses/transmissão , Animais , Betacoronavirus/genética , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidade , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/virologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Saúde Global , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Seleção Genética , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Zoonoses/virologia
18.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(42): 26151-26157, 2020 10 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32989148

RESUMO

Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Saúde Global/tendências , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Betacoronavirus , Clima , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Previsões , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional , Modelos Teóricos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Viagem
19.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0237780, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32845922

RESUMO

Modeling the behavior of zoonotic pandemic threats is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from their wild type while circulating in an intermediate host population, usually a domestic species, to become more transmissible among humans, and this transmission route will only become more likely as agriculture and trade intensifies around the world. Passage through an intermediate host enables many otherwise rare diseases to become better adapted to humans, and so understanding this process with accurate mathematical models is necessary to prevent epidemics of emerging zoonoses, guide policy interventions in public health, and predict the behavior of an epidemic. In this paper, we account for a zoonotic disease mutating in an intermediate host by introducing a new mathematical model for disease transmission among three species. We present a model of these disease dynamics, including the equilibria of the system and the basic reproductive number of the pathogen, finding that in the presence of biologically realistic interspecies transmission parameters, a zoonotic disease with the capacity to mutate in an intermediate host population can establish itself in humans even if its R0 in humans is less than 1. This result and model can be used to predict the behavior of any zoonosis with an intermediate host and assist efforts to protect public health.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Reservatórios de Doenças/microbiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Animais , Animais Domésticos/microbiologia , Animais Selvagens/microbiologia , Bactérias/genética , Bactérias/patogenicidade , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/microbiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/prevenção & controle , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Vetores de Doenças , Especificidade de Hospedeiro/genética , Humanos , Taxa de Mutação , Vírus/genética , Vírus/patogenicidade , Zoonoses/microbiologia , Zoonoses/prevenção & controle , Zoonoses/transmissão
20.
Cell ; 182(5): 1077-1092, 2020 09 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32846157

RESUMO

Infectious diseases prevalent in humans and animals are caused by pathogens that once emerged from other animal hosts. In addition to these established infections, new infectious diseases periodically emerge. In extreme cases they may cause pandemics such as COVID-19; in other cases, dead-end infections or smaller epidemics result. Established diseases may also re-emerge, for example by extending geographically or by becoming more transmissible or more pathogenic. Disease emergence reflects dynamic balances and imbalances, within complex globally distributed ecosystems comprising humans, animals, pathogens, and the environment. Understanding these variables is a necessary step in controlling future devastating disease emergences.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/prevenção & controle , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Demografia , Meio Ambiente , Interações Hospedeiro-Patógeno , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão
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