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1.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2020: 9017157, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33029196

RESUMO

This paper deals with the mathematical modeling and numerical simulations related to the coronavirus dynamics. A description is developed based on the framework of the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model. Initially, a model verification is carried out calibrating system parameters with data from China, Italy, Iran, and Brazil. Results show the model capability to predict infectious evolution. Afterward, numerical simulations are performed in order to analyze different scenarios of COVID-19 in Brazil. Results show the importance of the governmental and individual actions to control the number and the period of the critical situations related to the pandemic.


Assuntos
Simulação por Computador , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Algoritmos , Betacoronavirus , Brasil/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Humanos , Irã (Geográfico)/epidemiologia , Itália/epidemiologia , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias , Informática em Saúde Pública , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
2.
Wiad Lek ; 73(8): 1756-1760, 2020.
Artigo em Polonês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33055347

RESUMO

The article presents the life and work of dr. Mieczyslaw Biernacki, a Polish doctor of medicine, freemason, social, economic and political activist unknown to the younger generation of Polish doctors, who was born in 1862, Throughout his life, he actively worked to raise the level of education and health of Lublin's inhabitants. He held managerial positions in numerous associations, economic institutions, local government and political organizations. Above all, he was a doctor who effectively fought against infectious diseases, venereal diseases and tuberculosis. As an editor and publicist, he took the floor by writing on medical, economic and literary subjects. He died in 1948, at the age of eighty-eight.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Médicos , Doenças Transmissíveis/terapia , História do Século XIX , Humanos , Masculino , Polônia , Política
3.
Medicina (B Aires) ; 80(5): 512-515, 2020.
Artigo em Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33048796

RESUMO

COVID-19 has had a rapid dissemination. Departing from China, the virus has traveled all around the world. With the use of accurate mathematical models, the global spread of the disease was anticipated. Some additional information to these predictive models could be provided by the comparison of freely available maps depicting commercial air travel routes and disease spread. This analysis informs on what seems to be a direct relationship between the initially unequal worldwide distribution of the disease and the density of the commercial air traffic. This comparison may also help to identify international distributional hubs of the disease out of China. The observation of this easily accessible information may contribute to the understanding of COVID-19 spill over and help health control policies to better focus on the spread of this and other aggressively spreading respiratory infectious diseases.


Assuntos
Viagem Aérea , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Saúde Pública
4.
Rev Sci Tech ; 39(2): 625-635, 2020 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33046914

RESUMO

Livestock production systems and the societies in which they are embedded face a set of risks presented by infectious diseases and natural and human-made disasters which compromise animal health. Within this set, threats are posed by natural, deliberate and accidental actions that can cause sudden changes in animal health status, requiring the allocation of additional resources to manage animal health. Determining the benefit of preparing for such emergencies is a challenge when the total set of risks includes the unknown. Any method for analysing the economic costs and benefits of animal health emergencies must not only accommodate this uncertainty, but make it a central feature of the analysis. Cost-benefit analysis is a key approach to economically evaluating animal health interventions. However, the value of this approach in dealing with uncertainty is often called into question. This paper makes the case that, by restricting the outcomes of an emergency event to specified states of nature, boundaries can be placed on the uncertainty space, allowing cost-benefit analysis to be performed. This method, which merges state-contingent analysis with cost-benefit analysis, is presented here. Further discussion on the economic characteristics of emergency events, and the nature of the threats posed to animal health systems, is also provided.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Desastres , Animais , Doenças Transmissíveis/veterinária , Análise Custo-Benefício , Emergências/veterinária , Humanos , Gado
6.
Washington, D.C.; OPS; 2020-10-22. (OPS/CDE/VT/20-0038).
em Espanhol | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-52918

RESUMO

La enfermedad de Chagas o tripanosomiasis americana es una parasitosis sistémica cuya transmisión vectorial se limita a la Región de las Américas. Sin embargo, puede llegar a convertirse en un problema de salud de alcance global a través de sus modalidades de transmisión transfusional y congénita, que se asocian a las migraciones de la población de áreas endémicas de riesgo. Los países endémicos han puesto en marcha numerosas medidas para reducir la prevalencia, la morbilidad, la mortalidad y el riesgo mediante las Iniciativas Subregionales de Prevención, Control y Atención de la Enfermedad de Chagas, con la colaboración de la Secretaría Técnica de la OPS. Sin embargo, aún queda mucho por abordar y por hacer.


Assuntos
Doença de Chagas , Prevenção e Mitigação , Zoonoses , Doenças Transmissíveis
7.
Documento Oficial;361
Monografia em Espanhol | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-52904

RESUMO

A los Estados Miembros: De conformidad con la Constitución de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud, tengo el honor de presentar el informe anual correspondiente al 2020 sobre la labor de la Oficina Sanitaria Panamericana, Oficina Regional de la Organización Mundial de la Salud para las Américas. En este informe se pone de relieve la cooperación técnica proporcionada por la Oficina durante el período de julio del 2019 a junio del 2020, en el marco del Plan Estratégico de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud 2014-2019, definido por los Cuerpos Directivos y modificado por la 29.a Conferencia Sanitaria Panamericana en el 2017, y del Plan Estratégico de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud 2020-2025, definido y aprobado por los Cuerpos Directivos. Este informe se complementa con el Informe Financiero del Director e Informe del Auditor Externo correspondientes al 2019. Carissa F. Etienne - Directora, Oficina Sanitaria Panamericana.


Assuntos
Cooperação Internacional , Cooperação Técnica , Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde , Fatores de Risco , Prioridades em Saúde , Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças não Transmissíveis , Pandemias , Política Informada por Evidências , Cobertura Universal de Saúde
8.
Washington, D.C.; PAHO; 2020-10-16.
em Inglês | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-52852

RESUMO

To the Member States: In accordance with the Constitution of the Pan American Health Organization, I have the honor to present the 2020 annual report on the work of the Pan American Sanitary Bureau, Regional Office for the Americas of the World Health Organization. This report highlights the technical cooperation undertaken by the Bureau during the period July 2019 through June 2020, within the framework of the 2014–2019 Strategic Plan of the Pan American Health Organization, defined by its Governing Bodies and amended by the Pan American Sanitary Conference in 2017, and the 2020–2025 Strategic Plan of the Pan American Health Organization, defined and approved by the Governing Bodies. This report is complemented by the Financial Report of the Director and the Report of the External Auditor for the year 2019. Carissa F. Etienne - Director, Pan American Health Organization.


Assuntos
Cooperação Técnica , Cooperação Internacional , Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde , Fatores de Risco , Doenças Transmissíveis , Cobertura Universal de Saúde , Emergências , Serviços de Saúde , Sistemas de Saúde , Prioridades em Saúde , Política Informada por Evidências , Uso da Informação Científica na Tomada de Decisões em Saúde , Coronavirus , Pandemias , Doenças não Transmissíveis , América
9.
Washington, D.C.; OPAS; 2020-10-14. (OPAS/CDE/VT/20-0035).
em Português | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-52840

RESUMO

A Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde, em parceria com os Centros de Controle e Prevenção de Doenças dos Estados Unidos, iniciou um trabalho colaborativo em 2016 com delegados do Brasil, México e Paraguai com vistas a transferir capacidades para realizar a vigilância sorológica integrada da imunidade populacional e transmissão de várias doenças infecciosas usando a tecnologia de ensaio de micro-esferas multiplex (MBA, do inglês multiplex bead assay). Este ensaio permite a análise do perfil de anticorpos para até 96 antígenos de vários agentes patogênicos na mesma amostra de sangue seco. A vigilância sorológica, ou sorovigilância, é uma ferramenta cada vez mais utilizada por sua capacidade de gerar informações que auxiliem na caracterização da transmissão de doenças, no monitoramento do impacto de intervenções como a vacinação e, por exemplo, para identificar populações suscetíveis. A iniciativa tem sido um processo de aprendizagem por meio do trabalho interprogramático para desenvolver a vigilância sorológica integrada de múltiplos agravos que costumam ser tratados de maneira programaticamente separada, mas que na realidade se sobrepõem nos mesmos grupos populacionais e áreas geográficas. Este documento apresenta os resultados do terceiro encontro regional, realizado na cidade de Cuernavaca (México) nos dias 3 e 4 de março de 2020, com delegados dos países participantes da iniciativa, parceiros e aliados interessados. Esta publicação destaca as lições aprendidas na primeira fase de transferência de capacidades, oportunidades e próximos passos para expandir a vigilância sorológica integrada na Região das Américas como uma ferramenta para fortalecer a vigilância de doenças transmissíveis.


Assuntos
Epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Serviços de Vigilância Epidemiológica , Vigilância , Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças Negligenciadas
10.
Washington, D.C.; PAHO; 2020-10-14. (PAHO/CDE/VT/20-0035).
em Inglês | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-52839

RESUMO

In 2016, the Pan American Health Organization, in partnership with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, began a collaborative effort with delegates from Brazil, Mexico, and Paraguay aimed at transferring technical capacity for integrated serological surveillance of population immunity and transmission of multiple infectious diseases, using the multiplex bead assay (MBA) platform. MBA makes it possible to analyze the antibodies of up to 96 antigens of various pathogens in a single dried-spot blood sample. Serological surveillance is being increasingly used for its ability to generate information that helps characterize disease transmission and monitor the impact of interventions such as vaccination, and to identify susceptible populations. This initiative has served as a learning process based on interprogrammatic work to develop integrated serological surveillance of various diseases and events that are often addressed separately from a programmatic standpoint, but which in reality overlap in the same population groups and geographical areas. This document presents the results of the third regional meeting, held in the city of Cuernavaca, Mexico, on 4-5 March 2020, and attended by delegates from the participating countries, partners, and stakeholders. This publication highlights the lessons learned during the first stage of capacity transfer, and discusses opportunities and next steps to expand integrated serological surveillance in the Region of the Americas as a tool for strengthening surveillance of communicable diseases.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , América , Testes Sorológicos , Vigilância , Doenças Negligenciadas , Epidemiologia , Serviços de Vigilância Epidemiológica , Betacoronavirus
11.
Washington, D.C.; OPS; 2020-10-05. (OPS/CDE/VT/20-0035).
em Espanhol | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-52798

RESUMO

La Organización Panamericana de la Salud, en alianza con los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades de Estados Unidos de América, inició un trabajo colaborativo en el 2016 con delegados de Brasil, México y Paraguay, con vistas a transferir capacidades para realizar la vigilancia serológica integrada de la inmunidad poblacional y de la transmisión de múltiples enfermedades infecciosas usando el ensayo de perlas múltiples denominado multiplex bead assay (MBA). Este ensayo permite analizar el perfil de anticuerpos para hasta 96 antígenos de diversos patógenos en una misma muestra de sangre seca. La vigilancia serológica o serovigilancia es una herramienta cada vez más utilizada por su capacidad de generar información que ayuda a caracterizar la transmisión de las enfermedades y a monitorear el impacto de intervenciones como la vacunación y en la que se puede, por ejemplo, identificar población susceptible. La iniciativa ha sido un proceso de aprendizaje a través del trabajo interprogramático para desarrollar la vigilancia serológica integrada de diversas enfermedades y eventos que suelen estar programáticamente separados, pero que en la realidad se superponen en los mismos grupos de población y zonas geográficas. En este documento se presentan los resultados de la tercera reunión regional, celebrada en la ciudad de Cuernavaca (México) el 3 y 4 de marzo del 2020, con delegados de los países participantes en la iniciativa, socios y aliados interesados. En esta publicación se destacan las lecciones aprendidas en la primera fase de transferencia de capacidades, las oportunidades y los próximos pasos para expandir la vigilancia serológica integrada en la Región de las Américas como una herramienta para fortalecer la vigilancia de las enfermedades transmisibles.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças Negligenciadas , Epidemiologia , Vigilância , Serviços de Vigilância Epidemiológica , Betacoronavirus
12.
Washington, D.C.; OPS; 2020-10-01. (OPS-W/CDE/HT/20-0036).
em Espanhol | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-52783

RESUMO

[Extracto]. La carga de morbilidad y mortalidad asociada con la infección por el VIH ha disminuido a lo largo de los últimos diez años a medida que ha aumentado el acceso al tratamiento antirretroviral. A pesar de este progreso, casi la mitad de las personas con infección por el VIH inician su atención con un cuadro avanzado y muchas siguen muriendo por infecciones oportunistas relacionadas con el VIH. La meningitis criptocócica es una infección oportunista grave que constituye una causa primordial de morbilidad y mortalidad en las personas con infección avanzada por el VIH, y representa cerca del 15% de todas las muertes relacionadas con el sida a nivel mundial. Se estima que, cada año, unos 223.100 casos de meningitis criptocócica causan 181.000 defunciones de personas con infección por el VIH. La criptococosis es poco común en los niños con infección por el VIH, incluso en zonas geográficas con una elevada morbilidad en adultos. [...]


Assuntos
HIV , Tuberculose , Doenças Sexualmente Transmissíveis , Doenças Transmissíveis , Criptococose
14.
Cell ; 183(2): 296-300, 2020 10 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33064983

RESUMO

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has revealed that Africa needs a new public health order to be resilient, to adapt, and to cope with 21st-century disease threats. The new order will need strengthened continental and national public health institutions; local manufacturing of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics; attraction, training, and retention of a public health workforce; and fostering of respectful local and international partnerships.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/terapia , Saúde Pública , África , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Ocupações em Saúde/educação , Mão de Obra em Saúde , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional , Saúde Pública/educação , Administração em Saúde Pública
15.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 4365, 2020 08 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32868761

RESUMO

Current approaches explore bacterial genes that change transcriptionally upon stress exposure as diagnostics to predict antibiotic sensitivity. However, transcriptional changes are often specific to a species or antibiotic, limiting implementation to known settings only. While a generalizable approach, predicting bacterial fitness independent of strain, species or type of stress, would eliminate such limitations, it is unclear whether a stress-response can be universally captured. By generating a multi-stress and species RNA-Seq and experimental evolution dataset, we highlight the strengths and limitations of existing gene-panel based methods. Subsequently, we build a generalizable method around the observation that global transcriptional disorder seems to be a common, low-fitness, stress response. We quantify this disorder using entropy, which is a specific measure of randomness, and find that in low fitness cases increasing entropy and transcriptional disorder results from a loss of regulatory gene-dependencies. Using entropy as a single feature, we show that fitness and quantitative antibiotic sensitivity predictions can be made that generalize well beyond training data. Furthermore, we validate entropy-based predictions in 7 species under antibiotic and non-antibiotic conditions. By demonstrating the feasibility of universal predictions of bacterial fitness, this work establishes the fundamentals for potentially new approaches in infectious disease diagnostics.


Assuntos
Bactérias/genética , Evolução Molecular Direcionada , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana/genética , Estresse Fisiológico , Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Bactérias/efeitos dos fármacos , Bactérias/metabolismo , Fenômenos Fisiológicos Bacterianos , Doenças Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Entropia , Regulação Bacteriana da Expressão Gênica , Genes Bacterianos , Genoma Bacteriano , Análise de Sequência de RNA , Streptococcus pneumoniae/efeitos dos fármacos , Streptococcus pneumoniae/genética , Streptococcus pneumoniae/metabolismo , Transcriptoma
16.
Lancet Glob Health ; 8(10): e1295-e1304, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32971052

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Each year, billions of US$ are spent globally on infectious disease research and development. However, there is little systematic tracking of global research and development. We present research on investments into infectious diseases research from funders in the G20 countries across an 18-year time period spanning 2000-17, comparing amounts invested for different conditions and considering the global burden of disease to identify potential areas of relative underfunding. METHODS: The study examined research awards made between 2000 and 2017 for infectious disease research from G20-based public and philanthropic funders. We searched research databases using a range of keywords, and open access data were extracted from funder websites. Awards were categorised by type of science, specialty, and disease or pathogen. Data collected included study title, abstract, award amount, funder, and year. We used descriptive statistics and Spearman's correlation coefficient to investigate the association between research investment and disease burden, using Global Burden of Disease 2017 study data. FINDINGS: The final 2000-17 dataset included 94 074 awards for infectious disease research, with a sum investment of $104·9 billion (annual range 4·1 billion to 8·4 billion) and a median award size of $257 176 (IQR 62 562-770 661). Pre-clinical research received $61·1 billion (58·2%) across 70 337 (74·8%) awards and public health research received $29·5 billion (28·1%) from 19 197 (20·4%) awards. HIV/AIDS received $42·1 billion (40·1%), tuberculosis received $7·0 billion (6·7%), malaria received $5·6 billion (5·3%), and pneumonia received $3·5 billion (3·3%). Funding for Ebola virus ($1·2 billion), Zika virus ($0·3 billion), influenza ($4·4 billion), and coronavirus ($0·5 billion) was typically highest soon after a high-profile outbreak. There was a general increase in year-on-year investment in infectious disease research between 2000 and 2006, with a decline between 2007 and 2017. Funders based in the USA provided $81·6 billion (77·8%). Based on funding per 2017 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV/AIDS received the greatest relative investment ($772 per DALY), compared with tuberculosis ($156 per DALY), malaria ($125 per DALY), and pneumonia ($33 per DALY). Syphilis and scabies received the least relative investment (both $9 per DALY). We observed weak positive correlation (r=0·30) between investment and 2017 disease burden. INTERPRETATION: HIV research received the highest amount of investment relative to DALY burden. Scabies and syphilis received the lowest relative funding. Investments for high-threat pathogens (eg, Ebola virus and coronavirus) were often reactive and followed outbreaks. We found little evidence that funding is proactively guided by global burden or pandemic risk. Our findings show how research investments are allocated and how this relates to disease burden and diseases with pandemic potential. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Pesquisa Biomédica/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Saúde Global/economia , Apoio à Pesquisa como Assunto/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional
17.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 16(9): e1007836, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32960900

RESUMO

Early warning signals (EWS) identify systems approaching a critical transition, where the system undergoes a sudden change in state. For example, monitoring changes in variance or autocorrelation offers a computationally inexpensive method which can be used in real-time to assess when an infectious disease transitions to elimination. EWS have a promising potential to not only be used to monitor infectious diseases, but also to inform control policies to aid disease elimination. Previously, potential EWS have been identified for prevalence data, however the prevalence of a disease is often not known directly. In this work we identify EWS for incidence data, the standard data type collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or World Health Organization (WHO). We show, through several examples, that EWS calculated on simulated incidence time series data exhibit vastly different behaviours to those previously studied on prevalence data. In particular, the variance displays a decreasing trend on the approach to disease elimination, contrary to that expected from critical slowing down theory; this could lead to unreliable indicators of elimination when calculated on real-world data. We derive analytical predictions which can be generalised for many epidemiological systems, and we support our theory with simulated studies of disease incidence. Additionally, we explore EWS calculated on the rate of incidence over time, a property which can be extracted directly from incidence data. We find that although incidence might not exhibit typical critical slowing down properties before a critical transition, the rate of incidence does, presenting a promising new data type for the application of statistical indicators.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Biologia Computacional/métodos , Modelos Estatísticos , Vigilância em Saúde Pública/métodos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Incidência , Prevalência
18.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 4774, 2020 09 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32963224

RESUMO

Detection of microbial nucleic acids in body fluids has become the preferred method for rapid diagnosis of many infectious diseases. However, culture-based diagnostics that are time-consuming remain the gold standard approach in certain cases, such as sepsis. New culture-free methods are urgently needed. Here, we describe Single MOLecule Tethering or SMOLT, an amplification-free and purification-free molecular assay that can detect microorganisms in body fluids with high sensitivity without the need of culturing. The signal of SMOLT is generated by the displacement of micron-size beads tethered by DNA probes that are between 1 and 7 microns long. The molecular extension of thousands of DNA probes is determined with sub-micron precision using a robust and rapid optical approach. We demonstrate that SMOLT can detect nucleic acids directly in blood, urine and sputum at sub-femtomolar concentrations, and microorganisms in blood at 1 CFU mL-1 (colony forming unit per milliliter) threefold faster, with higher multiplexing capacity and with a more straight-forward protocol than amplified methodologies. SMOLT's clinical utility is further demonstrated by developing a multiplex assay for simultaneous detection of sepsis-causing Candida species directly in whole blood.


Assuntos
Líquidos Corporais/química , Técnicas de Diagnóstico Molecular/métodos , Ácidos Nucleicos/isolamento & purificação , Sepse/diagnóstico , Candida/genética , Candida/isolamento & purificação , Candidíase/diagnóstico , Contagem de Colônia Microbiana , Doenças Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , DNA/isolamento & purificação , Humanos , Ácidos Nucleicos/sangue , Ácidos Nucleicos/urina , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase/métodos , RNA/isolamento & purificação , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Sepse/microbiologia , Infecções Estafilocócicas/diagnóstico , Staphylococcus aureus/genética , Staphylococcus aureus/isolamento & purificação , Urina
20.
J Chem Phys ; 153(11): 114119, 2020 Sep 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32962383

RESUMO

The complexity associated with an epidemic defies any quantitatively reliable predictive theoretical scheme. Here, we pursue a generalized mathematical model and cellular automata simulations to study the dynamics of infectious diseases and apply it in the context of the COVID-19 spread. Our model is inspired by the theory of coupled chemical reactions to treat multiple parallel reaction pathways. We essentially ask the question: how hard could the time evolution toward the desired herd immunity (HI) be on the lives of people? We demonstrate that the answer to this question requires the study of two implicit functions, which are determined by several rate constants, which are time-dependent themselves. Implementation of different strategies to counter the spread of the disease requires a certain degree of a quantitative understanding of the time-dependence of the outcome. Here, we compartmentalize the susceptible population into two categories, (i) vulnerables and (ii) resilients (including asymptomatic carriers), and study the dynamical evolution of the disease progression. We obtain the relative fatality of these two sub-categories as a function of the percentages of the vulnerable and resilient population and the complex dependence on the rate of attainment of herd immunity. We attempt to study and quantify possible adverse effects of the progression rate of the epidemic on the recovery rates of vulnerables, in the course of attaining HI. We find the important result that slower attainment of the HI is relatively less fatal. However, slower progress toward HI could be complicated by many intervening factors.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/imunologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/patologia , Imunidade Coletiva , Modelos Teóricos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Modelos Biológicos , Probabilidade , Processos Estocásticos
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