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2.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2020: 9017157, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33029196

RESUMO

This paper deals with the mathematical modeling and numerical simulations related to the coronavirus dynamics. A description is developed based on the framework of the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model. Initially, a model verification is carried out calibrating system parameters with data from China, Italy, Iran, and Brazil. Results show the model capability to predict infectious evolution. Afterward, numerical simulations are performed in order to analyze different scenarios of COVID-19 in Brazil. Results show the importance of the governmental and individual actions to control the number and the period of the critical situations related to the pandemic.


Assuntos
Simulação por Computador , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Algoritmos , Betacoronavirus , Brasil/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Humanos , Irã (Geográfico)/epidemiologia , Itália/epidemiologia , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias , Informática em Saúde Pública , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
3.
Proc Biol Sci ; 287(1935): 20201829, 2020 09 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32933442

RESUMO

Annual migration is common across animal taxa and can dramatically shape the spatial and temporal patterns of infectious disease. Although migration can decrease infection prevalence in some contexts, these energetically costly long-distance movements can also have immunosuppressive effects that may interact with transmission processes in complex ways. Here, we develop a mechanistic model for the reactivation of latent infections driven by physiological changes or energetic costs associated with migration (i.e. 'migratory relapse') and its effects on disease dynamics. We determine conditions under which migratory relapse can amplify or reduce infection prevalence across pathogen and host traits (e.g. infectious periods, virulence, overwinter survival, timing of relapse) and transmission phenologies. We show that relapse at either the start or end of migration can dramatically increase prevalence across the annual cycle and may be crucial for maintaining pathogens with low transmissibility and short infectious periods in migratory populations. Conversely, relapse at the start of migration can reduce the prevalence of highly virulent pathogens by amplifying culling of infected hosts during costly migration, especially for highly transmissible pathogens and those transmitted during migration or the breeding season. Our study provides a mechanistic foundation for understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of relapsing infections in migratory hosts, with implications for zoonotic surveillance and understanding how infection patterns will respond to shifts in migratory propensity associated with environmental change. Further, our work suggests incorporating within-host processes into population-level models of pathogen transmission may be crucial for reconciling the range of migration-infection relationships observed across migratory species.


Assuntos
Migração Animal/fisiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Animais , Dinâmica Populacional , Prevalência
5.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 16(9): e1007836, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32960900

RESUMO

Early warning signals (EWS) identify systems approaching a critical transition, where the system undergoes a sudden change in state. For example, monitoring changes in variance or autocorrelation offers a computationally inexpensive method which can be used in real-time to assess when an infectious disease transitions to elimination. EWS have a promising potential to not only be used to monitor infectious diseases, but also to inform control policies to aid disease elimination. Previously, potential EWS have been identified for prevalence data, however the prevalence of a disease is often not known directly. In this work we identify EWS for incidence data, the standard data type collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or World Health Organization (WHO). We show, through several examples, that EWS calculated on simulated incidence time series data exhibit vastly different behaviours to those previously studied on prevalence data. In particular, the variance displays a decreasing trend on the approach to disease elimination, contrary to that expected from critical slowing down theory; this could lead to unreliable indicators of elimination when calculated on real-world data. We derive analytical predictions which can be generalised for many epidemiological systems, and we support our theory with simulated studies of disease incidence. Additionally, we explore EWS calculated on the rate of incidence over time, a property which can be extracted directly from incidence data. We find that although incidence might not exhibit typical critical slowing down properties before a critical transition, the rate of incidence does, presenting a promising new data type for the application of statistical indicators.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Biologia Computacional/métodos , Modelos Estatísticos , Vigilância em Saúde Pública/métodos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Incidência , Prevalência
7.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0237320, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32780775

RESUMO

Ghana Health Service (GHS) has strengthened community-based surveillance (CBS) to facilitate early detection and rapid reporting of health events of all origins. Since June 2017, GHS has employed an event-based surveillance approach at the community level in a phased manner. CBS coverage has broadened from 2 to 30 districts across Ghana. Through this effort, capacity was built across all administrative levels in these districts to detect, report, triage, and verify signals, and to perform risk assessment and investigate events. Data were collected and analyzed during an evaluation of initial 2-district implementation in March 2018 and during expanded 30-district implementation in March 2019. Between September 2018 and March 2019, 317 health events were detected through CBS. These events included vaccine-preventable disease cases, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks, clusters of unexpected animal deaths, and foodborne illness clusters. Eighty-nine percent of the 317 events were reported to district-level public health staff within 24 hours of detection at the community level, and 87% of all detected events were responded to within 48 hours of detection. CBS detected 26% of all suspected vaccine-preventable disease cases that were reported from implementing districts through routine disease surveillance. GHS strengthened CBS in Ghana to function as an early warning system for health events of all origins, advancing the Global Health Security Agenda.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/organização & administração , Participação da Comunidade , Saúde Global , Implementação de Plano de Saúde/organização & administração , Programas Nacionais de Saúde/organização & administração , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Conjuntivite Hemorrágica Aguda/epidemiologia , Conjuntivite Hemorrágica Aguda/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Doenças Transmitidas por Alimentos/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmitidas por Alimentos/prevenção & controle , Gana , Humanos , Governo Local , Medição de Risco/métodos
8.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0237313, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32841255

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Data on morbidity and mortality are essential in assessing disease burden, monitoring and evaluation of health policies. The aim of this study is to describe the causes of morbidity and mortality in the wards of University of Calabar Teaching Hospital (UCTH). METHODS: The study took a retrospective approach evaluating causes of morbidity and mortality from 2012-2017. Causes of death were documented based on International Classification of Disease 10 (ICD-10). Data were retrieved from health records department, UCTH. RESULTS: Overall, 2,198 deaths were recorded out of the 49,287 admissions during the study period giving a mortality rate of 4.5% comprising 1,152 (52.4%) males and 1,046 (47.6%) females. A greater number of males were admitted via accident and emergency. Age group 15-45 years had the highest number of admissions (57.9%) and deaths (37.7%), while age group >65 years recorded the highest number of deaths per admission (9.7% mortality rate). The broad leading causes of death were infectious and parasitic disease and diseases of the circulatory system (cardiovascular diseases) accounting for 22.7% and 15.8% of all deaths, respectively. However, diseases of the circulatory system recorded the highest number of deaths per admission (13.7% mortality rate). Overall, infectious diseases were the chief cause of mortality in adults while conditions originating from perinatal period were the major cause of death in children. Septicemia (6.0%), stroke (4.2%), liver diseases (4.1%), tuberculosis (3.7%), diabetes (3.6%) and HIV/AIDS (3.4%) were the specific leading cases of deaths. Sepsis, chronic diseases of the tonsil and adenoids and malaria were the specific leading causes of death in children, while sepsis, stroke and liver diseases were the leading cause of death in adults. CONCLUSION: Most causes of deaths in this study are preventable. This study revealed double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças não Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças Parasitárias/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Causas de Morte , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Doenças Transmissíveis/mortalidade , Feminino , Hospitalização , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Morbidade , Nigéria , Doenças não Transmissíveis/mortalidade , Doenças Parasitárias/mortalidade , Centros de Atenção Terciária , Adulto Jovem
9.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 16(7): e1007954, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32628658

RESUMO

Many infectious diseases exhibit seasonal dynamics driven by periodic fluctuations of the environment. Predicting the risk of pathogen emergence at different points in time is key for the development of effective public health strategies. Here we study the impact of seasonality on the probability of emergence of directly transmitted pathogens under different epidemiological scenarios. We show that when the period of the fluctuation is large relative to the duration of the infection, the probability of emergence varies dramatically with the time at which the pathogen is introduced in the host population. In particular, we identify a new effect of seasonality (the winter is coming effect) where the probability of emergence is vanishingly small even though pathogen transmission is high. We use this theoretical framework to compare the impact of different preventive control strategies on the average probability of emergence. We show that, when pathogen eradication is not attainable, the optimal strategy is to act intensively in a narrow time interval. Interestingly, the optimal control strategy is not always the strategy minimizing R0, the basic reproduction ratio of the pathogen. This theoretical framework is extended to study the probability of emergence of vector borne diseases in seasonal environments and we show how it can be used to improve risk maps of Zika virus emergence.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Interações Hospedeiro-Patógeno , Modelos Biológicos , Estações do Ano , Animais , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Biologia Computacional , Humanos , Doenças Transmitidas por Vetores , Infecção por Zika virus
10.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 16(7): e1008035, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32673307

RESUMO

The modeling of the spreading of communicable diseases has experienced significant advances in the last two decades or so. This has been possible due to the proliferation of data and the development of new methods to gather, mine and analyze it. A key role has also been played by the latest advances in new disciplines like network science. Nonetheless, current models still lack a faithful representation of all possible heterogeneities and features that can be extracted from data. Here, we bridge a current gap in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases and develop a framework that allows to account simultaneously for both the connectivity of individuals and the age-structure of the population. We compare different scenarios, namely, i) the homogeneous mixing setting, ii) one in which only the social mixing is taken into account, iii) a setting that considers the connectivity of individuals alone, and finally, iv) a multilayer representation in which both the social mixing and the number of contacts are included in the model. We analytically show that the thresholds obtained for these four scenarios are different. In addition, we conduct extensive numerical simulations and conclude that heterogeneities in the contact network are important for a proper determination of the epidemic threshold, whereas the age-structure plays a bigger role beyond the onset of the outbreak. Altogether, when it comes to evaluate interventions such as vaccination, both sources of individual heterogeneity are important and should be concurrently considered. Our results also provide an indication of the errors incurred in situations in which one cannot access all needed information in terms of connectivity and age of the population.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Infectologia/métodos , Fatores Etários , Algoritmos , Número Básico de Reprodução , Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Coleta de Dados , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Epidemias , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Itália , Modelos Estatísticos , Probabilidade , Vacinação
11.
Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol ; 13(8): e008627, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32654514

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: During acute infections, the risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias is increased, partly because of a higher propensity to develop QTc prolongation. Although it is generally believed that QTc changes almost exclusively result from concomitant treatment with QT-prolonging antimicrobials, direct effects of inflammatory cytokines on ventricular repolarization are increasingly recognized. We hypothesized that systemic inflammation per se can significantly prolong QTc during acute infections, via cytokine-mediated changes in K+ channel expression. METHODS: We evaluated (1) the frequency of QTc prolongation and its association with inflammatory markers, in patients with different types of acute infections, during active disease and remission; (2) the prevalence of acute infections in a cohort of consecutive patients with Torsades de Pointes; (3) the relationship between K+ channel mRNA levels in ventricles and peripheral blood mononuclear cells and their changes in patients with acute infection over time. RESULTS: In patients with acute infections, regardless of concomitant QT-prolonging antimicrobial treatments, QTc was significantly prolonged but rapidly normalized in parallel to CRP (C-reactive protein) and cytokine level reduction. Consistently in the Torsades de Pointes cohort, concomitant acute infections were highly prevalent (30%), despite only a minority (25%) of these cases were treated with QT-prolonging antimicrobials. KCNJ2 K+ channel expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cell, which strongly correlated to that in ventricles, inversely associated to CRP and IL (interleukin)-1 changes in acute infection patients. CONCLUSIONS: During acute infections, systemic inflammation rapidly induces cytokine-mediated ventricular electrical remodeling and significant QTc prolongation, regardless concomitant antimicrobial therapy. Although transient, these changes may significantly increase the risk of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmia in these patients. It is timely and warranted to transpose these findings to the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, in which both increased amounts of circulating cytokines and cardiac arrhythmias are demonstrated along with a frequent concomitant treatment with several QT-prolonging drugs. Graphic Abstract: A graphic abstract is available for this article.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/metabolismo , Citocinas/metabolismo , Parada Cardíaca/metabolismo , Frequência Cardíaca , Ventrículos do Coração/metabolismo , Inflamação/metabolismo , Leucócitos Mononucleares/metabolismo , Canais de Potássio Corretores do Fluxo de Internalização/metabolismo , Torsades de Pointes/metabolismo , Potenciais de Ação , Doença Aguda , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Anti-Infecciosos/efeitos adversos , Doenças Transmissíveis/tratamento farmacológico , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/fisiopatologia , Feminino , Parada Cardíaca/epidemiologia , Parada Cardíaca/fisiopatologia , Frequência Cardíaca/efeitos dos fármacos , Ventrículos do Coração/efeitos dos fármacos , Ventrículos do Coração/fisiopatologia , Humanos , Inflamação/epidemiologia , Inflamação/fisiopatologia , Leucócitos Mononucleares/efeitos dos fármacos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Canais de Potássio Corretores do Fluxo de Internalização/genética , Prevalência , Fatores de Risco , Transdução de Sinais , Fatores de Tempo , Torsades de Pointes/epidemiologia , Torsades de Pointes/fisiopatologia , Adulto Jovem
12.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(30): 17937-17948, 2020 07 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32651271

RESUMO

Species-specific limits to lifespan (lifespan setpoint) determine the life expectancy of any given organism. Whether limiting lifespan provides an evolutionary benefit or is the result of an inevitable decline in fitness remains controversial. The identification of mutations extending lifespan suggests that aging is under genetic control, but the evolutionary driving forces limiting lifespan have not been defined. By examining the impact of lifespan on pathogen spread in a population, we propose that epidemics drive lifespan setpoints' evolution. Shorter lifespan limits infection spread and accelerates pathogen clearance when compared to populations with longer-lived individuals. Limiting longevity is particularly beneficial in the context of zoonotic transmissions, where pathogens must undergo adaptation to a new host. Strikingly, in populations exposed to pathogens, shorter-living variants outcompete individuals with longer lifespans. We submit that infection outbreaks can contribute to control the evolution of species' lifespan setpoints.


Assuntos
Adaptação Psicológica , Evolução Biológica , Expectativa de Vida , Longevidade , Modelos Teóricos , Envelhecimento , Algoritmos , Animais , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/etiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/mortalidade , Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Aptidão Genética , Interações Hospedeiro-Patógeno , Zoonoses
14.
Biomed Environ Sci ; 33(6): 421-430, 2020 Jun 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32641205

RESUMO

Objective: We aimed to assess the features of notifiable infectious diseases found commonly in foreign nationals in China between 2004 and 2017 to improve public health policy and responses for infectious diseases. Methods: We performed a descriptive study of notifiable infectious diseases among foreigners reported from 2004 to 2017 in China using data from the Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System (NNIDRIS). Demographic, temporal-spatial distribution were described and analyzed. Results: A total of 67,939 cases of 33 different infectious diseases were reported among foreigners. These diseases were seen in 31 provinces of China and originated from 146 countries of the world. The infectious diseases with the highest incidence number were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) of 18,713 cases, hepatitis B (6,461 cases), hand, foot, and mouth disease (6,327 cases). Yunnan province had the highest number of notifiable infectious diseases in foreigners. There were different trends of the major infectious diseases among foreign cases seen in China and varied among provinces. Conclusions: This is the first description of the epidemiological characteristic of notifiable infectious diseases among foreigners in China from 2004 to 2017. These data can be used to better inform policymakers about national health priorities for future research and control strategies.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Doença de Mão, Pé e Boca/epidemiologia , Hepatite B/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , China/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Adulto Jovem
16.
Int Marit Health ; 71(2): 129-139, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32604457

RESUMO

Until last year, terrorism, economic instability, poverty and natural disasters were considered the major threats to humans globally. Infectious diseases were seen as a minor problem. This, however, changed in 2020 when the global COVID-19 pandemic broke out and a new danger emerged. The latest events generated a lot of discussion on health hazards associated with international tourism and uncontrolled spread of pathogens across the borders. The major health problems of travelers to developing countries with harsh environmental conditions and endemic infectious diseases include gastrointestinal disorders, dermatoses, respiratory infections and fevers of unknown origin. A medical interview by an experienced physician is the foundation of the post-travel screening process both in symptomatic and asymptomatic travelers; the interview should focus on identifying exposure to risk factors (endemic infectious diseases, failure to adopt disease prevention measures, consumption of food or water from unsafe sources, insect bites, animal bites, travelling in large groups, unsafe sex with casual partners). While physical examination (identification of abnormalities) and diagnostic tests (identification of pathogens) can be useful for detecting illnesses and asymptomatic infections as well as assessing the general health condition of a patient, including his immune system. The aim of the article is to provide information on the post-travel screening process in symptomatic and asymptomatic travelers who have returned from areas with harsh climate conditions and low sanitation standards.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Doenças Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doença Relacionada a Viagens , Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Países em Desenvolvimento , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Fatores de Risco
17.
Public Health Rep ; 135(5): 587-598, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32687737

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Hospital discharge data are a means of monitoring infectious diseases in a population. We investigated rates of infectious disease hospitalizations in New York City. METHODS: We analyzed data for residents discharged from New York State hospitals with a principal diagnosis of an infectious disease during 2001-2014 by using the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System. We calculated annual age-adjusted hospitalization rates and the percentage of hospitalizations in which in-hospital death occurred. We examined diagnoses by site of infection or sepsis and by pathogen type. RESULTS: During 2001-2014, the mean annual age-adjusted rate of infectious disease hospitalizations in New York City was 1661.6 (95% CI, 1659.2-1663.9) per 100 000 population; the mean annual age-adjusted hospitalization rate decreased from 2001-2003 to 2012-2014 (rate ratio = 0.9; 95% CI, 0.9-0.9). The percentage of in-hospital death during 2001-2014 was 5.9%. The diagnoses with the highest mean annual age-adjusted hospitalization rates among all sites of infection and sepsis diagnoses were the lower respiratory tract, followed by sepsis. From 2001-2003 to 2012-2014, the mean annual age-adjusted hospitalization rate per 100 000 population for HIV decreased from 123.1 (95% CI, 121.7-124.5) to 40.0 (95% CI, 39.2-40.7) and for tuberculosis decreased from 10.2 (95% CI, 9.8-10.6) to 4.6 (95% CI, 4.4-4.9). CONCLUSIONS: Although hospital discharge data are subject to limitations, particularly for tracking sepsis, lower respiratory tract infections and sepsis are important causes of infectious disease hospitalizations in New York City. Hospitalizations for HIV infection and tuberculosis appear to be declining.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/terapia , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Hospitalização/tendências , Vigilância da População , Saúde Pública/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Pública/tendências , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Previsões , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Cidade de Nova Iorque/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
18.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 20(10): e268-e273, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32717208

RESUMO

Outbreaks of infectious diseases are occurring with increasing frequency and unpredictability. The rapid development and deployment of diagnostics that can accurately and quickly identify pathogens as part of epidemic preparedness is needed now for the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO has developed a global research and innovation forum to facilitate, accelerate, and deepen research collaboration among countries and funders. Great progress has been made in the past decade, but access to specimens remains a major barrier for the development and evaluation of needed quality diagnostics. We present a sustainable model for a global network of country-owned biobanks with standardised methods for collection, characterisation, and archiving of specimens and pathogens to facilitate and accelerate diagnostics development and evaluation for COVID-19 and other diseases of epidemic potential. The biobanking network should be run on the guiding principles of transparency, equitable access, ethics, and respect for national laws that support country ownership and sustainability. Adapting the Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits, sharing of specimens from national biobanks can be rewarded through mechanisms such as equitable access to diagnostics at negotiated prices. Such networks should be prepared for any pathogen of epidemic potential.


Assuntos
Bancos de Espécimes Biológicos/organização & administração , Bancos de Espécimes Biológicos/normas , Doenças Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Manejo de Espécimes/normas , Desenvolvimento Sustentável
19.
Tidsskr Nor Laegeforen ; 140(9)2020 06 16.
Artigo em Inglês, Norueguês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-608544

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases (MSIS) is based on reporting of cases of 72 mandatory notifiable diseases by clinical microbiological laboratories and diagnosing physicians. The aim of our study was to investigate a potential temporal association between measures against COVID-19 in February-April 2020 and incidence of other infectious diseases reported to MSIS. MATERIAL AND METHOD: We compared the number of disease cases reported to MSIS during weeks 6-14 in 2020 with the median of cases reported in corresponding weeks during three previous years (2017-2019). RESULTS: Compared to the median of cases reported during corresponding weeks in three previous years, physicians and laboratories reported 47 % fewer cases (159 vs. 301) in week 12, 50 % fewer cases (131 vs. 261) in week 13, and 69 % fewer cases (77 vs. 252) in week 14. There was a reduction in the number of notifications of all included disease groups. INTERPRETATION: The observed decline in reporting of diseases other than COVID-19 may indicate a reduced risk of communicable diseases due to comprehensive advice and the requirement for social distancing. However, it is also possible that the sensitivity of the surveillance system was affected by increased resource use on COVID-19 cases management.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Infecções por Coronavirus , Notificação de Doenças , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , Betacoronavirus , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Humanos , Notificação de Abuso , Noruega/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Vigilância da População , Quarentena
20.
Tidsskr Nor Laegeforen ; 140(9)2020 06 16.
Artigo em Inglês, Norueguês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-604434

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases (MSIS) is based on reporting of cases of 72 mandatory notifiable diseases by clinical microbiological laboratories and diagnosing physicians. The aim of our study was to investigate a potential temporal association between measures against COVID-19 in February-April 2020 and incidence of other infectious diseases reported to MSIS. MATERIAL AND METHOD: We compared the number of disease cases reported to MSIS during weeks 6-14 in 2020 with the median of cases reported in corresponding weeks during three previous years (2017-2019). RESULTS: Compared to the median of cases reported during corresponding weeks in three previous years, physicians and laboratories reported 47 % fewer cases (159 vs. 301) in week 12, 50 % fewer cases (131 vs. 261) in week 13, and 69 % fewer cases (77 vs. 252) in week 14. There was a reduction in the number of notifications of all included disease groups. INTERPRETATION: The observed decline in reporting of diseases other than COVID-19 may indicate a reduced risk of communicable diseases due to comprehensive advice and the requirement for social distancing. However, it is also possible that the sensitivity of the surveillance system was affected by increased resource use on COVID-19 cases management.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Infecções por Coronavirus , Notificação de Doenças , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , Betacoronavirus , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Humanos , Notificação de Abuso , Noruega/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Vigilância da População , Quarentena
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