Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 1.390
Filtrar
1.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 41(8): 1199-1203, 2020 Aug 10.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32867424

RESUMO

When wars, major disasters, or epidemics of the infectious diseases occur, existing medical facilities are usually unable to implement timely and effective treatment for patients, or the reception capacity is difficult to meet the surge in demand for health care. The makeshift emergency hospitals are built for patient reception, treatment and even isolation for infectious disease control. The makeshift hospitals have developed and improved in modern times, including mobile field hospitals, field tent hospitals and navy hospital ships equipped with advanced equipment and commonly used for military purposes, or temporary hospitals built in large public buildings and newly built hospitals in support of disaster relief and humanitarian operation. Makeshift hospitals have played an important role in response to many disasters and epidemics globally. This paper briefly summarizes the history, types, and applications of makeshift hospitals in disasters and epidemic responses.


Assuntos
Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/organização & administração , Desastres , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Humanos
2.
J Transl Med ; 18(1): 345, 2020 09 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32891155

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spreads rapidly and has attracted worldwide attention. METHODS: To improve the forecast accuracy and investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed four mathematical models to numerically estimate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the efficacy of eradication strategies. RESULTS: Using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model, and including measures such as city closures and extended leave policies implemented by the Chinese government that effectively reduced the ß value, we estimated that the ß value and basic transmission number, R0, of SARS-CoV-2 was 0.476/6.66 in Wuhan, 0.359/5.03 in Korea, and 0.400/5.60 in Italy. Considering medicine and vaccines, an advanced model demonstrated that the emergence of vaccines would greatly slow the spread of the virus. Our model predicted that 100,000 people would become infected assuming that the isolation rate α in Wuhan was 0.30. If quarantine measures were taken from March 10, 2020, and the quarantine rate of α was also 0.3, then the final number of infected people was predicted to be 11,426 in South Korea and 147,142 in Italy. CONCLUSIONS: Our mathematical models indicate that SARS-CoV-2 eradication depends on systematic planning, effective hospital isolation, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, and some measures including city closures and leave policies should be implemented to ensure SARS-CoV-2 eradication.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/fisiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Erradicação de Doenças , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Governo , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Quarentena , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Vacinação
3.
Arch Iran Med ; 23(8): 578-581, 2020 08 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32894975

RESUMO

In the past two centuries, several fatal infectious outbreaks have arisen in Iran. Presented here is a brief historical account of four fatal epidemics including cholera, plague, Spanish influenza of 1918 and smallpox between1796 and 1979. The lessons from these outbreaks could be helpful for better combatting other deadly epidemics including the present-day disastrous COVID-19 pandemic.


Assuntos
Cólera/história , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/história , Epidemias/história , Influenza Pandêmica, 1918-1919/história , Peste/história , Varíola/história , Cólera/epidemiologia , Cólera/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , História do Século XIX , História do Século XX , Humanos , Irã (Geográfico)/epidemiologia , Peste/epidemiologia , Peste/prevenção & controle , Varíola/epidemiologia , Varíola/prevenção & controle
4.
Math Biosci Eng ; 17(4): 3147-3159, 2020 04 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32987521

RESUMO

Awareness of prevention is enhanced to reduce the rate of infection by media coverage, which plays an important role in preventing and controlling infectious diseases. Based on epidemic situation of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei, an SIHRS epidemic model with media coverage was proposed. Firstly, by the basic reproduction number R0, the globally asymptotically stable of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium were proved. Then, based on the reported epidemic data of Hubei Province from January 26 to February 13, numerical simulations are used to verify the analysis results, and the impact of peak time and the scale of disease transmission were mainly considered with different information implementation rate and the contact rate. It was shown that with the decrease of information implementation rate, the peak of confirmed cases would be delayed to reach, and would increase significantly. Therefore, in order to do a better prevention measures after resumption of work, it is very necessary to maintain the amount of information and implementation rate of media coverage.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Meios de Comunicação , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , China/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Conceitos Matemáticos , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos , Mídias Sociais
5.
Math Biosci Eng ; 17(4): 4165-4183, 2020 06 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32987574

RESUMO

In this paper we develop a compartmental epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak, with Mexico as a practical example. In particular, we evaluate the theoretical impact of plausible control interventions such as home quarantine, social distancing, cautious behavior and other self-imposed measures. We also investigate the impact of environmental cleaning and disinfection, and government-imposed isolation of infected individuals. We use a Bayesian approach and officially published data to estimate some of the model parameters, including the basic reproduction number. Our findings suggest that social distancing and quarantine are the winning strategies to reduce the impact of the outbreak. Environmental cleaning can also be relevant, but its cost and effort required to bring the maximum of the outbreak under control indicate that its cost-efficacy is low.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Simulação por Computador , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Desinfecção/estatística & dados numéricos , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Controle de Infecções/métodos , Controle de Infecções/estatística & dados numéricos , Conceitos Matemáticos , México/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Isolamento de Pacientes/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos
7.
Math Biosci Eng ; 17(4): 3052-3061, 2020 04 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32987516

RESUMO

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection broke out in December 2019 in Wuhan, and rapidly overspread 31 provinces in mainland China on 31 January 2020. In the face of the increasing number of daily confirmed infected cases, it has become a common concern and worthy of pondering when the infection will appear the turning points, what is the final size and when the infection would be ultimately controlled. Based on the current control measures, we proposed a dynamical transmission model with contact trace and quarantine and predicted the peak time and final size for daily confirmed infected cases by employing Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We estimate the basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is 5.78 (95%CI: 5.71-5.89). Under the current intervention before 31 January, the number of daily confirmed infected cases is expected to peak on around 11 February 2020 with the size of 4066 (95%CI: 3898-4472). The infection of COVID-19 might be controlled approximately after 18 May 2020. Reducing contact and increasing trace about the risk population are likely to be the present effective measures.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Algoritmos , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , China/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Busca de Comunicante/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Mapeamento Geográfico , Humanos , Cadeias de Markov , Conceitos Matemáticos , Método de Monte Carlo , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos
8.
Math Biosci Eng ; 17(4): 3062-3087, 2020 04 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32987517

RESUMO

In this paper we introduce a method of global exponential attractor in the reaction-diffusion epidemic model in spatial heterogeneous environment to study the spread trend and long-term dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 epidemic. First, we prove the existence of the global exponential attractor of general dissipative evolution systems. Then, by using the existence theorem, the global asymptotic stability and the persistence of epidemic are discussed. Finally, combine with the official data of the COVID-19 and the national control strategy, some numerical simulations on the stability and global exponential attractiveness of the COVID-19 epidemic are given. Simulations show that the spread trend of the epidemic is in line with our theoretical results, and the preventive measures taken by the Chinese government are effective.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Epidemias , Modelos Biológicos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Conceitos Matemáticos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos
9.
Epidemiol Infect ; 148: e166, 2020 08 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32753078

RESUMO

Following the importation of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) into Nigeria on 27 February 2020 and then the outbreak, the question is: How do we anticipate the progression of the ongoing epidemic following all the intervention measures put in place? This kind of question is appropriate for public health responses and it will depend on the early estimates of the key epidemiological parameters of the virus in a defined population.In this study, we combined a likelihood-based method using a Bayesian framework and compartmental model of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Nigeria to estimate the effective reproduction number (R(t)) and basic reproduction number (R0) - this also enables us to estimate the initial daily transmission rate (ß0). We further estimate the reported fraction of symptomatic cases. The models are applied to the NCDC data on COVID-19 symptomatic and death cases from 27 February 2020 and 7 May 2020.In this period, the effective reproduction number is estimated with a minimum value of 0.18 and a maximum value of 2.29. Most importantly, the R(t) is strictly greater than one from 13 April till 7 May 2020. The R0 is estimated to be 2.42 with credible interval: (2.37-2.47). Comparing this with the R(t) shows that control measures are working but not effective enough to keep R(t) below 1. Also, the estimated fraction of reported symptomatic cases is between 10 and 50%.Our analysis has shown evidence that the existing control measures are not enough to end the epidemic and more stringent measures are needed.


Assuntos
Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Prática de Saúde Pública , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Funções Verossimilhança , Nigéria/epidemiologia
10.
Ann Glob Health ; 86(1): 88, 2020 07 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32775219

RESUMO

Guidance from many health authorities recommend that social distancing measures should be implemented in an epidemic when community transmission has already occurred. The clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 suggest this is too late. Based on international comparisons of the timing and scale of the implementation of social distancing measures, we find that countries that imposed early stringent measures recorded far fewer cases than those that did not. Yet, such measures need not be extreme. We highlight the examples of Hong Kong and Brunei to demonstrate the early use of moderate social distancing measures as a practical containment strategy. We propose that such measures be a key part of responding to potential future waves of the epidemic.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Prática de Saúde Pública , Distância Social , Brunei/epidemiologia , Hong Kong/epidemiologia , Humanos , Fatores de Tempo
11.
Sensors (Basel) ; 20(16)2020 Aug 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32824787

RESUMO

Pandemics require a fast and immediate response to contain potential infectious carriers. In the recent 2020 Covid-19 worldwide pandemic, authorities all around the world have failed to identify potential carriers and contain it on time. Hence, a rapid and very sensitive testing method is required. Current diagnostic tools, reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) and real-time PCR (qPCR), have its pitfalls for quick pandemic containment such as the requirement for specialized professionals and instrumentation. Versatile electrochemical DNA/RNA sensors are a promising technological alternative for PCR based diagnosis. In an electrochemical DNA sensor, a nucleic acid hybridization event is converted into a quantifiable electrochemical signal. A critical challenge of electrochemical DNA sensors is sensitive detection of a low copy number of DNA/RNA in samples such as is the case for early onset of a disease. Signal amplification approaches are an important tool to overcome this sensitivity issue. In this review, the authors discuss the most recent signal amplification strategies employed in the electrochemical DNA/RNA diagnosis of pathogens.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Técnicas Biossensoriais , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Técnicas Eletroquímicas , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , DNA/isolamento & purificação , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , RNA/isolamento & purificação , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase em Tempo Real
12.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi ; 54(6): 597-601, 2020 Jun 06.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32842276

RESUMO

On March 11, 2020, WHO officially declared that COVID-19 had become Pandemic. As of March 31, the epidemic had affected more than 178 countries and regions, with more than 780 000 confirmed cases. The Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework for the sharing of influenza viruses and access to vaccines and other benefits (the 'PIP Framework' or 'Framework') is an international arrangement adopted by the World Health Organization in May 2011 to improve global pandemic influenza preparedness and response. Since the transmission route and transmission capacity of COVID-19 are similar to that of influenza A (H1N1) in 2009, which conforms to the basic elements of "human pandemic", and the epidemic scale has exceeded that of influenza A (H1N1), it is probable to incorporate COVID-19 epidemic response into PIPF, and at the same time to verify and improve PIPF in practice. It is recommended that WHO, other international organizations and relevant countries make full use of the PIPF system to respond to the epidemic and better coordinate national actions at the global level. At the same time, China should also make the planning and deploy of domestic epidemic prevention and control and international epidemic cooperation under the framework.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1 , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia
13.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi ; 54(6): 602-607, 2020 Jun 06.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32842277

RESUMO

During the epidemics of COVID-19 in domestic China and recently continuing rapid spread worldwide, a bunch of studies fitted the epidemics by transmission dynamics model to nowcast and forecast the trend of epidemics of COVID-19. However, due to little known of the new virus in early stage and much uncertainty in the comprehensive strategies of prevention and control for epidemics, majority of models, not surprisingly, predict in less accuracy, although the dynamics model has its great value in better understanding of transmission. This comment discusses the principle assumptions and limitations of the dynamics model in forecasting the epidemic trend, as well as its great potential role in evaluating the efforts of prevention and control strategies.


Assuntos
Epidemias , Modelos Biológicos , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Previsões , Humanos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
14.
Public Health Rep ; 135(5): 685-690, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32762633

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Racial/ethnic disparities in HIV diagnosis rates remain despite the availability of effective treatment and prevention tools in the United States. In 2019, President Trump announced the "Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America" (EHE) initiative to reduce new HIV infections in the United States at least 75% by 2025 and at least 90% by 2030. The objective of this study was to show the potential effect of the EHE initiative on racial/ethnic disparities in HIV diagnosis rates at the national level. METHODS: We used 2017 HIV diagnoses data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National HIV Surveillance System. We developed a counterfactual scenario to determine changes in racial/ethnic disparities if the 2017 HIV diagnosis rates were reduced by 75% in the geographic regions targeted by the EHE initiative. We used 4 measures to calculate results: rate ratio, population-attributable proportion (PAP), Gini coefficient, and Index of Disparity. RESULTS: The relative measures of racial/ethnic disparity decreased by 9%-21% in the EHE scenario compared with the 2017 HIV diagnoses data. The largest decrease was in the Hispanic/Latino:white rate ratio (-20.6%) and in the black:white rate ratio (-18.2%). The PAP measure decreased by 11.5%. The absolute versions of the Index of Disparity (unweighted and weighted) were approximately 50% lower in the EHE scenario than in the 2017 HIV diagnoses data. CONCLUSIONS: EHE efforts could reduce but will not eliminate racial/ethnic disparities in HIV diagnosis rates. Efforts to address racial/ethnic disparities should continue, and innovative approaches, specifically those that focus on social and structural factors, should be developed and implemented for populations that are disproportionately affected by HIV in the United States.


Assuntos
Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Grupos Étnicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Saúde Pública/legislação & jurisprudência , Saúde Pública/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Afro-Americanos/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Grupos de Populações Continentais/estatística & dados numéricos , Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Europeu/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Hispano-Americanos/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
15.
Public Health Rep ; 135(5): 547-554, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32780671

RESUMO

In 2019, President Trump announced a new initiative, Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America (EHE). EHE will use 3 key strategies-diagnose, treat, and prevent-to reduce new HIV infections at least 90% by 2030, as well as new laboratory methods and epidemiological techniques to respond quickly to potential outbreaks. Partnerships are an important component in the initiative's success. Pharmacists and pharmacies can play important roles in EHE, including dispensing antiretroviral therapy and providing HIV screening, adherence counseling, medication therapy management, preexposure prophylaxis, and nonprescription syringe sales. The objective of this report is to discuss potential roles that pharmacists and pharmacies can play under the key strategies of EHE.


Assuntos
Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Programas de Rastreamento/normas , Farmácias/normas , Farmacêuticos/normas , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição/normas , Papel Profissional , Adolescente , Adulto , Epidemias/legislação & jurisprudência , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição/métodos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
16.
IEEE J Biomed Health Inform ; 24(10): 2743-2754, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32749979

RESUMO

In this work, we present an open-source stochastic epidemic simulator calibrated with extant epidemic experience of COVID-19. The simulator models a country as a network representing each node as an administrative region. The transportation connections between the nodes are modeled as the edges of this network. Each node runs a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model and population transfer between the nodes is considered using the transportation networks which allows modeling of the geographic spread of the disease. The simulator incorporates information ranging from population demographics and mobility data to health care resource capacity, by region, with interactive controls of system variables to allow dynamic and interactive modeling of events. The single-node simulator was validated using the thoroughly reported data from Lombardy, Italy. Then, the epidemic situation in Kazakhstan as of 31 May 2020 was accurately recreated. Afterward, we simulated a number of scenarios for Kazakhstan with different sets of policies. We also demonstrate the effects of region-based policies such as transportation limitations between administrative units and the application of different policies for different regions based on the epidemic intensity and geographic location. The results show that the simulator can be used to estimate outcomes of policy options to inform deliberations on governmental interdiction policies.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Betacoronavirus , Biologia Computacional , Simulação por Computador , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Política de Saúde , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Cazaquistão/epidemiologia , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Processos Estocásticos , Transportes
17.
Public Health Rep ; 135(1_suppl): 65S-74S, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32735198

RESUMO

In 2014, New York State became the first jurisdiction to launch a statewide initiative to end AIDS by reducing the number of persons living with HIV for the first time since effective HIV treatment became available. The Ending the Epidemic (ETE) initiative encompasses (1) identifying and linking undiagnosed persons with HIV to care, (2) retaining persons with HIV in care, and (3) facilitating access to preexposure prophylaxis for persons at risk for acquiring HIV. We used a framework for public health program implementation to describe key characteristics of the ETE initiative, present progress toward 13 ETE target metrics, and identify areas in need of increased programming. We provide evidence suggesting that New York State is on track to end AIDS as an epidemic by the end of 2020. As of 2017, 76% of progress toward our primary ETE target had been achieved. Substantial progress on several additional metrics critical to decreasing HIV prevalence and to improving the health of persons living with HIV had also been achieved. Lessons learned included the following: (1) ETE-based programming should be tailored to each jurisdiction's unique political and social climate, HIV epidemiology, fiscal resources, and network of HIV service providers; (2) key stakeholders should be involved in developing ETE metrics and setting targets; (3) performance-based measurement and timely communication to key stakeholders in real time are essential; and (4) examining trends in HIV prevention and care metrics is important for developing realistic ETE timelines.


Assuntos
Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/prevenção & controle , Comunicação , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/terapia , Acesso aos Serviços de Saúde/organização & administração , Humanos , Relações Interinstitucionais , New York , Cooperação do Paciente , Política , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição , Prevalência , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Características de Residência , Fatores Socioeconômicos
18.
Public Health Rep ; 135(1_suppl): 158S-171S, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32735199

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: In 2014, the governor of New York announced the Ending the Epidemic (ETE) plan to reduce annual new HIV infections from 3000 to 750, achieve a first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence, and reduce AIDS progression by the end of 2020. The state health department undertook participatory simulation modeling to develop a baseline for comparing epidemic trends and feedback on ETE strategies. METHODS: A dynamic compartmental model projected the individual and combined effects of 3 ETE initiatives: enhanced linkage to and retention in HIV treatment, increased preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men, and expanded housing assistance. Data inputs for model calibration and low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios (stakeholders' rollout predictions, and lower and upper bounds) came from surveillance and program data through 2014, the literature, and expert judgment. RESULTS: Without ETE (baseline scenario), new HIV infections would decline but remain >750, and HIV prevalence would continue to increase by 2020. Concurrently implementing the 3 programs would lower annual new HIV infections by 16.0%, 28.1%, and 45.7% compared with baseline in the low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios, respectively. In all concurrent implementation scenarios, although annual new HIV infections would remain >750, there would be fewer new HIV infections than deaths, yielding the first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence. PrEP and enhanced linkage and retention would confer the largest population-level changes. CONCLUSIONS: New York State will achieve 1 ETE benchmark under the most realistic (medium) implementation scenario. Findings facilitated framing of ETE goals and underscored the need to prioritize men who have sex with men and maintain ETE's multipronged approach, including other programs not modeled here.


Assuntos
Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Homossexualidade Masculina , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/prevenção & controle , Simulação por Computador , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Acesso aos Serviços de Saúde/organização & administração , Humanos , Masculino , Modelos Teóricos , New York , Cooperação do Paciente , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição/métodos , Prevalência , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde
19.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 16(7): e1007897, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32645081

RESUMO

Network-based intervention strategies can be effective and cost-efficient approaches to curtailing harmful contagions in myriad settings. As studied, these strategies are often impractical to implement, as they typically assume complete knowledge of the network structure, which is unusual in practice. In this paper, we investigate how different immunization strategies perform under realistic conditions-where the strategies are informed by partially-observed network data. Our results suggest that global immunization strategies, like degree immunization, are optimal in most cases; the exception is at very high levels of missing data, where stochastic strategies, like acquaintance immunization, begin to outstrip them in minimizing outbreaks. Stochastic strategies are more robust in some cases due to the different ways in which they can be affected by missing data. In fact, one of our proposed variants of acquaintance immunization leverages a logistically-realistic ongoing survey-intervention process as a form of targeted data-recovery to improve with increasing levels of missing data. These results support the effectiveness of targeted immunization as a general practice. They also highlight the risks of considering networks as idealized mathematical objects: overestimating the accuracy of network data and foregoing the rewards of additional inquiry.


Assuntos
Bases de Dados Factuais , Epidemias , Imunização , Algoritmos , Biologia Computacional , Simulação por Computador , Coleta de Dados , Bases de Dados Factuais/normas , Bases de Dados Factuais/estatística & dados numéricos , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Global , Humanos , Imunização/métodos , Imunização/estatística & dados numéricos
20.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 468, 2020 Jul 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32615923

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease with obvious regional and seasonal differences. Exploring the impact of climate factors on the incidence of mumps and predicting its incidence trend on this basis could effectively control the outbreak and epidemic of mumps. METHODS: Considering the great differences of climate in the vast territory of China, this study divided the Chinese mainland into seven regions according to the administrative planning criteria, data of Mumps were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, ARIMA model and ARIMAX model with meteorological factors were established to predict the incidence of mumps. RESULTS: In this study, we found that precipitation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed had an impact on the incidence of mumps in most regions of China and the incidence of mumps in the north and southwest China was more susceptible to climate factors. Considering meteorological factors, the average relative error of ARIMAX model was 10.87%, which was lower than ARIMA model (15.57%). CONCLUSIONS: Meteorology factors were the important factors which can affect the incidence of mumps, ARIMAX model with meteorological factors could better simulate and predict the incidence of mumps in China, which has certain reference value for the prevention and control of mumps.


Assuntos
Atmosfera , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Vírus da Caxumba , Caxumba/epidemiologia , Caxumba/prevenção & controle , Criança , Pré-Escolar , China/epidemiologia , Feminino , Previsões/métodos , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Modelos Teóricos , Caxumba/virologia , Prognóstico
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA