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1.
Viruses ; 13(5)2021 05 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34067128

RESUMO

The future prevalence and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 is uncertain. Some emerging pathogens become avirulent as populations approach herd immunity. Although not all viruses follow this path, the fact that the seasonal coronaviruses are benign gives some hope. We develop a general mathematical model to predict when the interplay among three factors, correlation of severity in consecutive infections, population heterogeneity in susceptibility due to age, and reduced severity due to partial immunity, will promote avirulence as SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic. Each of these components has the potential to limit severe, high-shedding cases over time under the right circumstances, but in combination they can rapidly reduce the frequency of more severe and infectious manifestation of disease over a wide range of conditions. As more reinfections are captured in data over the next several years, these models will help to test if COVID-19 severity is beginning to attenuate in the ways our model predicts, and to predict the disease.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/provisão & distribuição , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/transmissão , Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , Vacinas contra COVID-19/imunologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Humanos , Imunidade Coletiva/imunologia , Modelos Teóricos , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , Estações do Ano
2.
Viruses ; 13(5)2021 05 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1224256

RESUMO

The future prevalence and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 is uncertain. Some emerging pathogens become avirulent as populations approach herd immunity. Although not all viruses follow this path, the fact that the seasonal coronaviruses are benign gives some hope. We develop a general mathematical model to predict when the interplay among three factors, correlation of severity in consecutive infections, population heterogeneity in susceptibility due to age, and reduced severity due to partial immunity, will promote avirulence as SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic. Each of these components has the potential to limit severe, high-shedding cases over time under the right circumstances, but in combination they can rapidly reduce the frequency of more severe and infectious manifestation of disease over a wide range of conditions. As more reinfections are captured in data over the next several years, these models will help to test if COVID-19 severity is beginning to attenuate in the ways our model predicts, and to predict the disease.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/provisão & distribuição , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/transmissão , Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , Vacinas contra COVID-19/imunologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Humanos , Imunidade Coletiva/imunologia , Modelos Teóricos , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , Estações do Ano
5.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 70(23): 833-839, 2021 06 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34111057

RESUMO

In 2005, the Regional Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region (EUR) passed a resolution calling for the regional elimination of measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) (1). In 2010, all 53 countries in EUR* reaffirmed their commitment to eliminating measles, rubella, and CRS (2); this goal was included in the European Vaccine Action Plan 2015-2020 (3,4). Rubella, which typically manifests as a mild febrile rash illness, is the leading vaccine-preventable cause of birth defects. Rubella infection during pregnancy can result in miscarriage, fetal death, or a constellation of malformations known as CRS, which usually includes one or more visual, auditory, or cardiac defects (5). The WHO-recommended measles and rubella elimination strategies in EUR include 1) achieving and maintaining ≥95% coverage with 2 doses of measles- and rubella-containing vaccine (MRCV) through routine immunization services; 2) providing measles and rubella vaccination opportunities, including supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), to populations susceptible to measles or rubella; 3) strengthening surveillance by conducting case investigations and confirming suspected cases and outbreaks with laboratory results; and 4) improving the availability and use of evidence to clearly communicate the benefits and risks of preventing these diseases through vaccination to health professionals and the public (6). This report updates a previous report and describes progress toward rubella and CRS elimination in EUR during 2005-2019 (7). In 2000, estimated coverage with the first dose of a rubella-containing vaccine (RCV1) in EUR was 60%, and 621,039 rubella cases were reported (incidence = 716.9 per 1 million population). During 2005-2019, estimated regional coverage with RCV1 was 93%-95%, and in 2019, 31 (58%) countries achieved ≥95% coverage with the RCV1. During 2005-2019, approximately 38 million persons received an RCV during SIAs in 20 (37%) countries. Rubella incidence declined by >99%, from 234.9 cases per 1 million population (206,359 cases) in 2005 to 0.67 cases per 1 million population (620 cases) by 2019. CRS cases declined by 50%, from 16 cases in 2005 to eight cases in 2019. For rubella and CRS elimination in EUR to be achieved and maintained, measures are needed to strengthen immunization programs by ensuring high coverage with an RCV in every district of each country, offering supplementary rubella vaccination to susceptible adults, maintaining high-quality surveillance for rapid case detection and confirmation, and ensuring effective outbreak preparedness and response.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Vigilância da População , Rubéola (Sarampo Alemão)/epidemiologia , Rubéola (Sarampo Alemão)/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Genótipo , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Vacina contra Rubéola/administração & dosagem , Vírus da Rubéola/genética , Vírus da Rubéola/isolamento & purificação , Cobertura Vacinal/estatística & dados numéricos , Organização Mundial da Saúde
6.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 15(5): e0009414, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1238752

RESUMO

In Latin America, there has been tremendous progress towards eliminating canine rabies. Major components of rabies elimination programs leading to these successes have been constant and regular surveillance for rabid dogs and uninterrupted yearly mass dog vaccination campaigns. Unfortunately, vital measures to control COVID-19 have had the negative trade-off of jeopardizing these rabies elimination and prevention activities. We aimed to assess the effect of interrupting canine rabies surveillance and mass dog vaccination campaigns on rabies trends. We built a deterministic compartment model of dog rabies dynamics to create a conceptual framework for how different disruptions may affect rabies virus transmission. We parameterized the model for conditions found in Arequipa, Peru, a city with active rabies virus transmission. We examined our results over a range of plausible values for R0 (1.36-2.0). Also, we prospectively evaluated surveillance data during the pandemic to detect temporal changes. Our model suggests that a decrease in canine vaccination coverage as well as decreased surveillance could lead to a sharp rise in canine rabies within months. These results were consistent over all plausible values of R0. Surveillance data from late 2020 and early 2021 confirms that in Arequipa, Peru, rabies cases are on an increasing trajectory. The rising rabies trends in Arequipa, if indicative to the region as whole, suggest that the achievements made in Latin America towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies may be in jeopardy.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Doenças do Cão/epidemiologia , Vacinação em Massa/veterinária , Pandemias , Vírus da Raiva/imunologia , Raiva/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/fisiologia , Animais , COVID-19/virologia , Erradicação de Doenças , Doenças do Cão/prevenção & controle , Doenças do Cão/virologia , Cães , Humanos , América Latina/epidemiologia , Peru/epidemiologia , Raiva/prevenção & controle , Raiva/virologia , Vacinas Antirrábicas/administração & dosagem , Cobertura Vacinal
7.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 70(18): 667-673, 2021 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1218743

RESUMO

When the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established in 1988, an estimated 350,000 poliomyelitis cases were reported worldwide. In 2020, 140 wild poliovirus (WPV) cases were confirmed, representing a 99.99% reduction since 1988. WPV type 1 transmission remains endemic in only two countries (Pakistan and Afghanistan), but outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) occurred in 33 countries during 2019-2020 (1,2). Poliovirus transmission is detected primarily through syndromic surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) among children aged <15 years, with confirmation by laboratory testing of stool specimens. Environmental surveillance supplements AFP surveillance and plays an increasingly important role in detecting poliovirus transmission. Within 2 weeks of COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic (3), GPEI recommended continuing surveillance activities with caution and paused all polio supplementary immunization activities (4). This report summarizes surveillance performance indicators for 2019 and 2020 in 42 priority countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission and updates previous reports (5). In 2020, 48% of priority countries* in the African Region, 90% in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, and 40% in other regions met AFP surveillance performance indicators nationally. The number of priority countries rose from 40 in 2019 to 42 in 2020.† Analysis of 2019-2020 AFP surveillance data from 42 countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission indicates that national and subnational nonpolio AFP rates and stool specimen adequacy declined in many priority countries, particularly in the African Region, suggesting a decline in surveillance sensitivity and quality. The findings in this report can be used to guide improvements to restore a sensitive surveillance system that can track poliovirus transmission and provide evidence of interruption of transmission.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Poliomielite/prevenção & controle , Vigilância da População , Humanos , Poliomielite/epidemiologia
8.
Bull World Health Organ ; 99(4): 280-286, 2021 Apr 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1167259

RESUMO

By 2040, deaths from chronic viral hepatitis worldwide are projected to exceed those from human immunodeficiency virus infection, tuberculosis and malaria combined. The burden of this disease is predominantly carried by low-resource countries in Africa and Asia. In resource-rich countries, the epidemiological spread of viral hepatitis is partially driven by migrant movements from areas of high endemicity. In the last decade, Member States of the European Union and the European Economic Area have experienced an unprecedented influx of migrants, which has resulted in the polarization of political views about migration. In addition, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has worsened the economic and health conditions of migrants and contributed to hostility to ensuring their health rights. Moreover, the implementation of hostile laws in some host nations has increased the vulnerability of marginalized migrant subgroups, such as asylum seekers and undocumented individuals. These developments have complicated the historical challenge of identifying high-risk migrant groups for screening and treatment. However, if European countries can apply the simplified assessment tools and diagnostic tests for viral hepatitis that have been used for decentralized screening and monitoring in resource-poor countries, the uptake of care by migrants could be dramatically increased. Given the global calls for the elimination of viral hepatitis, European nations should recognize the importance of treating this vulnerable migrant population. Political and health strategies need to be adapted to meet this challenge and help eliminate viral hepatitis globally.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças/organização & administração , Hepatite Viral Humana/etnologia , Hepatite Viral Humana/prevenção & controle , Programas de Rastreamento/organização & administração , Refugiados , Migrantes , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Política , SARS-CoV-2
9.
Vaccine ; 39(27): 3544-3559, 2021 06 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34045102

RESUMO

This report addresses the epidemiological aspects and feasibility of measles and rubella eradication and the potential resource requirements in response to the request of the Director-General at the Seventieth World Health Assembly held on May 31, 2017. A guiding principle is that the path toward measles and rubella eradication should serve to strengthen primary health care, promote universal health coverage, and be a pathfinder for new vision and strategy for immunization over the next decade as laid out in the Immunization Agenda 2030. Specifically, this report: 1) highlights the importance of measles and rubella as global health priorities; 2) reviews the current global measles and rubella situation; 3) summarizes prior assessments of the feasibility of measles and rubella eradication; 4) assesses the progress and challenges in achieving regional measles and rubella elimination; 5) assesses additional considerations for measles and rubella eradication, including the results of modelling and economic analyses; 6) assesses the implications of establishing a measles and rubella eradication goal and the process for setting an eradication target date; 7) proposes a framework for determining preconditions for setting a target date for measles and rubella eradication and how these preconditions should be understood and used; and 8) concludes with recommendations endorsed by SAGE.


Assuntos
Sarampo , Rubéola (Sarampo Alemão) , Erradicação de Doenças , Estudos de Viabilidade , Saúde Global , Humanos , Programas de Imunização , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo , Rubéola (Sarampo Alemão)/epidemiologia , Rubéola (Sarampo Alemão)/prevenção & controle
10.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 15(5): e0009414, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34019548

RESUMO

In Latin America, there has been tremendous progress towards eliminating canine rabies. Major components of rabies elimination programs leading to these successes have been constant and regular surveillance for rabid dogs and uninterrupted yearly mass dog vaccination campaigns. Unfortunately, vital measures to control COVID-19 have had the negative trade-off of jeopardizing these rabies elimination and prevention activities. We aimed to assess the effect of interrupting canine rabies surveillance and mass dog vaccination campaigns on rabies trends. We built a deterministic compartment model of dog rabies dynamics to create a conceptual framework for how different disruptions may affect rabies virus transmission. We parameterized the model for conditions found in Arequipa, Peru, a city with active rabies virus transmission. We examined our results over a range of plausible values for R0 (1.36-2.0). Also, we prospectively evaluated surveillance data during the pandemic to detect temporal changes. Our model suggests that a decrease in canine vaccination coverage as well as decreased surveillance could lead to a sharp rise in canine rabies within months. These results were consistent over all plausible values of R0. Surveillance data from late 2020 and early 2021 confirms that in Arequipa, Peru, rabies cases are on an increasing trajectory. The rising rabies trends in Arequipa, if indicative to the region as whole, suggest that the achievements made in Latin America towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies may be in jeopardy.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Doenças do Cão/epidemiologia , Vacinação em Massa/veterinária , Pandemias , Vírus da Raiva/imunologia , Raiva/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/fisiologia , Animais , COVID-19/virologia , Erradicação de Doenças , Doenças do Cão/prevenção & controle , Doenças do Cão/virologia , Cães , Humanos , América Latina/epidemiologia , Peru/epidemiologia , Raiva/prevenção & controle , Raiva/virologia , Vacinas Antirrábicas/administração & dosagem , Cobertura Vacinal
11.
Bull World Health Organ ; 99(4): 280-286, 2021 Apr 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33953445

RESUMO

By 2040, deaths from chronic viral hepatitis worldwide are projected to exceed those from human immunodeficiency virus infection, tuberculosis and malaria combined. The burden of this disease is predominantly carried by low-resource countries in Africa and Asia. In resource-rich countries, the epidemiological spread of viral hepatitis is partially driven by migrant movements from areas of high endemicity. In the last decade, Member States of the European Union and the European Economic Area have experienced an unprecedented influx of migrants, which has resulted in the polarization of political views about migration. In addition, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has worsened the economic and health conditions of migrants and contributed to hostility to ensuring their health rights. Moreover, the implementation of hostile laws in some host nations has increased the vulnerability of marginalized migrant subgroups, such as asylum seekers and undocumented individuals. These developments have complicated the historical challenge of identifying high-risk migrant groups for screening and treatment. However, if European countries can apply the simplified assessment tools and diagnostic tests for viral hepatitis that have been used for decentralized screening and monitoring in resource-poor countries, the uptake of care by migrants could be dramatically increased. Given the global calls for the elimination of viral hepatitis, European nations should recognize the importance of treating this vulnerable migrant population. Political and health strategies need to be adapted to meet this challenge and help eliminate viral hepatitis globally.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças/organização & administração , Hepatite Viral Humana/etnologia , Hepatite Viral Humana/prevenção & controle , Programas de Rastreamento/organização & administração , Refugiados , Migrantes , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Política , SARS-CoV-2
12.
Biomed Res Int ; 2021: 6150628, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33937401

RESUMO

Background: Helicobacter pylori eradication with therapies employing a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) and antimicrobial agents is mainly achieved via bacterial susceptibility to antimicrobial agents and the magnitude of acid secretion inhibition. However, annual eradication rates have greatly declined in Mainland China, and therefore, tailored H. pylori eradication regimens that inhibit acid secretion and employ optimal antimicrobial agents determined based on gene clip testing may improve eradication rates. This study was aimed at evaluating the efficacy of tailored H. pylori eradication therapy guided by visual gene clip testing for antibiotic resistance and PPI metabolism genotypes. Methods: This prospective study included 244 patients (141 men and 103 women aged 20-79 years) receiving initial treatment for H. pylori infection. Visual gene clip testing using gastric mucosal specimens was performed to detect antibiotic resistance to clarithromycin conferred by the A2142G and A2143G point mutations of the H. pylori 23S rRNA gene and to levofloxacin conferred by the Asn87 and Asp91 point mutations of the H. pylori gyrA gene. Patients received a 14-day bismuth quadruple therapy regimen guided by testing for antibiotic resistance and CYP2C19 polymorphisms, and primary H. pylori eradication was assessed at least 4 weeks after therapy. Results: H. pylori strains were successfully isolated from the gastric mucosa tissues of 244 patients. Antibiotic resistant isolates were identified in 63 patients, with clarithromycin resistance observed in 50 patients, levofloxacin resistance in 7 patients, and dual resistance in 6 patients. The PPI metabolic genotype of CYP2C19 was detected in 242 of 244 cases, and 97 cases were categorized as extensive metabolizers, 141 as intermediate metabolizers, and 4 as poor metabolizers. Among the 242 patients who received tailored therapy, the H. pylori eradication rate was 90.9% (95% confidence interval 87.3%~94.6%) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 96.9% (95% confidence interval 94.7%~99.2%) in the per protocol analysis. Conclusions: Tailored therapy for H. pylori infection guided by determination of antibiotic resistance and CYP2C19 polymorphism using visual gene chip technology may provide high clinical effectiveness as initial H. pylori eradication therapy.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Infecções por Helicobacter/genética , Infecções por Helicobacter/terapia , Helicobacter pylori/fisiologia , Adulto , Idoso , Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Citocromo P-450 CYP2C19/genética , Resistência Microbiana a Medicamentos/efeitos dos fármacos , Resistência Microbiana a Medicamentos/genética , Feminino , Genótipo , Infecções por Helicobacter/microbiologia , Helicobacter pylori/efeitos dos fármacos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fenótipo , Inibidores da Bomba de Prótons/farmacologia , Inibidores da Bomba de Prótons/uso terapêutico , Adulto Jovem
13.
Acta Trop ; 220: 105960, 2021 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34004172

RESUMO

Urogenital schistosomiasis is a common experience among children in Zanzibar. There is a paucity of behavioural science-based, health education and behaviour change (HEBC) interventions for school-aged children, those at greatest risk for urogenital schistosomiasis. We assessed the influence of a HEBC intervention, guided by the Health Belief model, among rural schoolchildren on Pemba and Unguja islands in Zanzibar, Tanzania. From 2012 to 2016, a cluster-randomized trial to assess three different interventions against urogenital schistosomiasis was conducted in 90 schools and shehias across Zanzibar. The HEBC intervention was implemented in 15 schools per island. In 2017, at the trial conclusion, we administered written questionnaires to schoolchildren from 4 HEBC intervention schools and 4 not HEBC exposed schools on each island, respectively. Responses were compared between students that were exposed or not exposed to the HEBC intervention using a Fisher's exact test. A total of 1451 students, 708 from intervention and 743 from non-intervention schools completed the questionnaire. Noting some between island differences, students who had received the HEBC interventions reported significant improvements in knowledge about Schistosoma haematobium transmission and personal risk, strategies for schistosomiasis prevention, and self-reported changes in risk behaviours: stopped washing laundry/dishes 49.4% (350/708) versus 5.8% (43/743), stopped bathing in streams/ponds 49.4% (350/708) versus 4.2% (31/743), and stopped playing in streams/ponds 40.8% (289/708) versus 10.8% (80/743). HEBC exposed children also reported a significant increase in swallowing tablets during mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns (when they had not before) 30.2% (214/708) versus 4.6% (34/743). The school based HEBC interventions were associated with desirable positive behaviour change among students. Data suggest that scaling up HEBC interventions to all schools in high-risk areas, augmented with bi-annual MDA, can help to reduce prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis in Zanzibar, strengthening the possibility for future disease elimination.


Assuntos
Ilhas/epidemiologia , Esquistossomose Urinária/epidemiologia , Instituições Acadêmicas/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Animais , Criança , Erradicação de Doenças , Feminino , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Educação em Saúde , Humanos , Ilhas do Oceano Índico/epidemiologia , Masculino , Prevalência , Inquéritos e Questionários , Tanzânia/epidemiologia
14.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 70(18): 667-673, 2021 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33956779

RESUMO

When the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established in 1988, an estimated 350,000 poliomyelitis cases were reported worldwide. In 2020, 140 wild poliovirus (WPV) cases were confirmed, representing a 99.99% reduction since 1988. WPV type 1 transmission remains endemic in only two countries (Pakistan and Afghanistan), but outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) occurred in 33 countries during 2019-2020 (1,2). Poliovirus transmission is detected primarily through syndromic surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) among children aged <15 years, with confirmation by laboratory testing of stool specimens. Environmental surveillance supplements AFP surveillance and plays an increasingly important role in detecting poliovirus transmission. Within 2 weeks of COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic (3), GPEI recommended continuing surveillance activities with caution and paused all polio supplementary immunization activities (4). This report summarizes surveillance performance indicators for 2019 and 2020 in 42 priority countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission and updates previous reports (5). In 2020, 48% of priority countries* in the African Region, 90% in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, and 40% in other regions met AFP surveillance performance indicators nationally. The number of priority countries rose from 40 in 2019 to 42 in 2020.† Analysis of 2019-2020 AFP surveillance data from 42 countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission indicates that national and subnational nonpolio AFP rates and stool specimen adequacy declined in many priority countries, particularly in the African Region, suggesting a decline in surveillance sensitivity and quality. The findings in this report can be used to guide improvements to restore a sensitive surveillance system that can track poliovirus transmission and provide evidence of interruption of transmission.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Poliomielite/prevenção & controle , Vigilância da População , Humanos , Poliomielite/epidemiologia
17.
Viruses ; 13(4)2021 03 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1154539

RESUMO

The eradication of infectious diseases has been achieved only once in history, in 1980, with smallpox. Since 1988, significant effort has been made to eliminate poliomyelitis viruses, but eradication is still just out of reach. As the goal of viral disease eradication approaches, the ability to recreate historically eradicated viruses using synthetic biology has the potential to jeopardize the long-term sustainability of eradication. However, the emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2 pandemic has highlighted our ability to swiftly and resolutely respond to a potential outbreak. This virus has been synthetized faster than any other in the past and is resulting in vaccines before most attenuated candidates reach clinical trials. Here, synthetic biology has the opportunity to demonstrate its truest potential to the public and solidify a footing in the world of vaccines.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/síntese química , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2/fisiologia , COVID-19/virologia , Vacinas contra COVID-19/genética , Vacinas contra COVID-19/imunologia , Erradicação de Doenças , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Biologia Sintética
18.
Infect Genet Evol ; 92: 104834, 2021 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33798755

RESUMO

The most important question and concern in these circumstances of COVID-19 epidemic outspread is when will the pandemic end? Vaccination is the only solution to restore life to normalcy in the fastest and safest possible manner. Therefore, we have carried out a predictive analysis for realistic timescale estimates for overcoming the epidemic considering vaccination rate effect on the dynamics of COVID-19 control. In particular we discuss the worst affected large countries like India, Brazil and USA for estimating effect of vaccination rate in expediting the end of the COVID-19 epidemic. We analytically simulated the dynamic evolution of active cases of these countries in the last nine months using the modified SIR model and then included the effect of vaccination to forecast the proliferation dynamics. We hence obtained the transmission parameters, the variation in the reproduction numbers and the impact of the different values of the vaccination shots in the expected curves of active cases in the coming times to predicted the timescales of the end of the epidemic.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Erradicação de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , SARS-CoV-2 , Brasil/epidemiologia , Humanos , Índia/epidemiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos
19.
Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 6(5): 391-400, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33857445

RESUMO

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a global public health problem in correctional settings. The International Network on Health and Hepatitis in Substance Users-Prisons Network is a special interest group committed to advancing scientific knowledge exchange and advocacy for HCV prevention and care in correctional settings. In this Review, we highlight seven priority areas and best practices for improving HCV care in correctional settings: changing political will, ensuring access to HCV diagnosis and testing, promoting optimal models of HCV care and treatment, improving surveillance and monitoring of the HCV care cascade, reducing stigma and tackling the social determinants of health inequalities, implementing HCV prevention and harm reduction programmes, and advancing prison-based research.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Hepatite C/prevenção & controle , Prisioneiros , Prisões , Erradicação de Doenças/organização & administração , Redução do Dano , Política de Saúde , Acesso aos Serviços de Saúde , Hepatite C/diagnóstico , Hepatite C/terapia , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional , Política , Determinantes Sociais da Saúde , Estigma Social
20.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(5): 1513-1516, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33900188

RESUMO

In 2019, the Public Health Agency of Barcelona, Spain, was notified of a vaccine-derived poliovirus infection. The patient had an underlying common variable immunodeficiency and no signs of acute flaccid paralysis. We describe the ongoing coordinated response to contain the infection, which included compassionate-use treatment with pocapavir.


Assuntos
Poliomielite , Poliovirus , Erradicação de Doenças , Humanos , Vacina Antipólio Oral , Espanha
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