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1.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 69(37): 1277-1282, 2020 Sep 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32941410

RESUMO

The spontaneous death or loss of a fetus during pregnancy is termed a fetal death. In the United States, national data on fetal deaths are available for losses at ≥20 weeks' gestation.* Deaths occurring during this period of pregnancy are commonly known as stillbirths. In 2017, approximately 23,000 fetal deaths were reported in the United States (1). Racial/ethnic disparities exist in the fetal mortality rate; however, much of the known disparity in fetal deaths is unexplained (2). CDC analyzed 2015-2017 U.S. fetal death report data and found that non-Hispanic Black (Black) women had more than twice the fetal mortality rate compared with non-Hispanic White (White) women and Hispanic women. Fetal mortality rates also varied by maternal state of residence. Cause of death analyses were conducted for jurisdictions where >50% of reports had a cause of death specified. Still, even in these jurisdictions, approximately 31% of fetal deaths had no cause of death reported on a fetal death report. There were differences by race and Hispanic origin in causes of death, with Black women having three times the rate of fetal deaths because of maternal complications compared with White women. The disparities suggest opportunities for prevention to reduce the U.S. fetal mortality rate. Improved documentation of cause of death on fetal death reports might help identify preventable causes and guide prevention efforts.


Assuntos
Grupos de Populações Continentais/estatística & dados numéricos , Grupos Étnicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade Fetal/etnologia , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Gravidez , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Estatísticas Vitais , Adulto Jovem
2.
BMJ ; 370: m2688, 2020 08 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32816805

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in the burden of mortality due to subtypes of heart disease from 1999 to 2018 to inform targeted prevention strategies and reduce disparities. DESIGN: Serial cross sectional analysis of cause specific heart disease mortality rates using national death certificate data in the overall population as well as stratified by race-sex, age, and geography. SETTING: United States, 1999-2018. PARTICIPANTS: 12.9 million decedents from total heart disease (49% women, 12% black, and 19% <65 years old). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) for each heart disease subtype, and respective mean annual percentage change. RESULTS: Deaths from total heart disease fell from 752 192 to 596 577 between 1999 and 2011, and then increased to 655 381 in 2018. From 1999 to 2018, the proportion of total deaths from heart disease attributed to ischemic heart disease decreased from 73% to 56%, while the proportion attributed to heart failure increased from 8% to 13% and the proportion attributed to hypertensive heart disease increased from 4% to 9%. Among heart disease subtypes, AAMR was consistently highest for ischemic heart disease in all subgroups (race-sex, age, and region). After 2011, AAMR for heart failure and hypertensive heart disease increased at a faster rate than for other subtypes. The fastest increases in heart failure mortality were in black men (mean annual percentage change 4.9%, 95% confidence interval 4.0% to 5.8%), whereas the fastest increases in hypertensive heart disease occurred in white men (6.3%, 4.9% to 9.4%). The burden of years of potential life lost was greatest from ischemic heart disease, but black-white disparities were driven by heart failure and hypertensive heart disease. Deaths from heart disease in 2018 resulted in approximately 3.8 million potential years of life lost. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in AAMR and years of potential life lost for ischemic heart disease have decelerated since 2011. For almost all other subtypes of heart disease, AAMR and years of potential life lost became stagnant or increased. Heart failure and hypertensive heart disease account for the greatest increases in premature deaths and the largest black-white disparities and have offset declines in ischemic heart disease. Early and targeted primary and secondary prevention and control of risk factors for heart disease, with a focus on groups at high risk, are needed to avoid these suboptimal trends beginning earlier in life.


Assuntos
Cardiopatias/mortalidade , Mortalidade/tendências , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Cardiopatias/classificação , Cardiopatias/etnologia , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Estatísticas Vitais
3.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 1291, 2020 Aug 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32847504

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide. The effect of socioeconomic factors on cause-specific mortality and burden of CVD is rarely evaluated in low- and middle-income countries, especially in a rapidly changing society. METHODS: Original data were derived from the vital registration system in Yangpu, a representative, population-stable district of urban Shanghai, China, during 1974-2015. Temporal trends for the mortality rates and burden of CVD during 1974-2015 were evaluated using Joinpoint Regression Software. The burden was evaluated using age-standardized person years of life loss per 100,000 persons (SPYLLs). Age-sex-specific CVD mortality rates were predicted by using age-period-cohort Poisson regression model. RESULTS: A total of 101,822 CVD death occurred during 1974-2015, accounting for 36.95% of total death. Hemorrhagic stroke, ischemic heart disease, and ischemic stroke were the 3 leading causes of CVD death. The age-standardized CVD mortality decreased from 144.5/100,000 to 100.7/100,000 in the residents (average annual percentage change [AAPC] -1.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] -1.7 to - 0.2), which was mainly contributed by women (AAPC -1.3, 95% CI - 2.0 to - 0.7), not by men. Hemorrhagic stroke, the major CVD death in the mid-aged population, decreased dramatically after 1991. The crude mortality of ischemic heart disease kept increasing but its age-adjusted mortality decreased continually after 1997. SPYLLs of CVD death increased from 1974 to 1986 (AAPC 2.1, 95% CI 0.4 to 3.8) and decreased after 1986 (AAPC 1.8, 95% CI - 2.3 to - 1.3). These changes were in concert with the implementation of policies including extended medical insurance coverage, pollution control, active prophylaxis of CVD including lifestyle promotion, and national health programs. The mortality of CVD increased in those born during 1937-1945, a period of the Japanese military occupation, and during 1958-1965, a period including the Chinese Famine. Sequelae of CVD and ischemic heart disease are predicted to be the leading causes of CVD death in 2029. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to serious malnutrition in early life might increase CVD mortality in later life. Improvements in medical services, pollution control, and lifestyle could decrease CVD death. New strategy is needed to prevent the aging-related CVD death and burden in the future.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Causas de Morte/tendências , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Criança , Pré-Escolar , China/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Estatísticas Vitais , Adulto Jovem
4.
Artigo em Espanhol | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-52465

RESUMO

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Este estudio se propuso describir el impacto del registro deficiente de la causa de muerte en las tendencias de mortalidad por suicidios y homicidios mediante la imputación de información faltante. Métodos. Estudio observacional y descriptivo de la tendencia temporal de la mortalidad por causas externas registradas en Argentina en el período 1997-2018. Para la imputación de la intencionalidad, se ajustaron modelos logísticos a partir de variables predictoras provenientes del Informe Estadístico de Defunción. Se utilizaron estadísticas vitales y proyecciones de población como fuentes secundarias. Resultados. Medida con los datos originales, la mortalidad por causas externas descendió en homicidios y accidentes. Dichos descensos se hicieron más marcados con la información corregida, ya que la imputación impactó con mayor fuerza al principio del período. La mortalidad por suicidios registró un aumento de 8,0%, que luego de la corrección ascendió a 12,9%. Conclusiones. La corrección no modifica de manera sustantiva la tendencia de la mortalidad por causas externas, aunque tiene mayor impacto en la mortalidad por homicidios y suicidios, elevándola.


[ABSTRAC]. Objective. To describe the impact of deficient cause-of-death records on trends in death by suicide and homicide, through imputation of missing information. Methods. Observational and descriptive study of temporal trends in recorded deaths from external causes in Argentina in the period 1997-2018. For imputation of intent, logistic models were adjusted on the basis of predictive variables from the Statistical Report on Deaths. Vital statistics and population projections were used as secondary sources. Results. As measured by the original data, mortality from external causes declined, specifically for homicides and accidents. These declines were more pronounced with the corrected data, since imputation of intent had a greater impact early in the period. Death by suicide increased by 8.0%; and after the correction, by 12.9%. Conclusions. The correction does not substantively alter the trend in mortality from external causes, but it does significantly increase mortality from homicide and suicide.


[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Este estudo procurou descrever o impacto do registro inadequado da causa de morte sobre as tendências de mortalidade por suicídio e homicídio, por meio da imputação de informações ausentes. Métodos. Estudo observacional e descritivo da tendência temporal de mortalidade por causas externas registradas na Argentina no período de 1997 a 2018. Para imputar a intencionalidade, ajustamos os modelos logísticos utilizando variáveis preditivas provenientes do Relatório Estatístico de Óbitos. Utilizamos estatísticas vitais e projeções populacionais como fontes secundárias. Resultados. Medida com os dados originais, a mortalidade por causas externas diminuiu em termos de homicídios e acidentes. Essa diminuição foi mais acentuada com as informações corrigidas, uma vez que a imputação teve um impacto mais forte no início do período de estudo. A mortalidade por suicídio registrou um aumento de 8,0%, que subiu para 12,9% após a correção. Conclusões. A correção não modifica substancialmente a tendência de mortalidade por causas externas, mas tem um maior impacto sobre a mortalidade por homicídios e suicídios, elevando-a.


Assuntos
Registros de Mortalidade , Violência , Causas de Morte , Causas Externas , Estatísticas Vitais , Argentina , Registros de Mortalidade , Violência , Causas de Morte , Estatísticas Vitais , Registros de Mortalidade , Violência , Causas de Morte , Estatísticas Vitais
5.
Natl Vital Stat Rep ; 69(5): 1-18, 2020 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32600516

RESUMO

Objectives-This report assesses the contributions of the changing maternal age distribution and maternal age-specific infant mortality rates on overall and race and Hispanic origin-specific infant mortality rates in the United States from 2000 to 2017. Methods-The analyses used 2000-2017 linked birth and infant death data from the National Vital Statistics System. Age-adjusted infant mortality rates, based on the 2000 U.S. maternal age distribution, were calculated for each year. These rates were compared with crude rates for all births and for specific race and Hispanic-origin groups. Decomposition analysis was used to estimate the proportion of the decline due to changes in maternal age distribution and in age-specific mortality rates. Results-During 2000-2017, the age of women giving birth rose as infant mortality rates declined, although unevenly across maternal age groups. The maternal age-adjusted infant mortality rate in 2017 was 6.13 compared with the crude rate of 5.79, resulting in a 0.34 percentage point difference. Changes in the maternal age distribution accounted for 31.3% of the decline in infant mortality rates for all births and for births to non-Hispanic white women, and for 4.8% of the decline in births to non-Hispanic black women. Declines in age-specific mortality rates accounted for the remainder of the decline for these groups and for all of the decline in births to Hispanic women. Conclusion-Changes in the age distribution of women giving birth accounted for about one-third of the decline in infant mortality rates from 2000 through 2017; declines in maternal age-specific mortality rates accounted for about two-thirds of this decline. These patterns varied by race and Hispanic origin.


Assuntos
Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Idade Materna , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Grupos de Populações Continentais/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Hispano-Americanos/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Lactente , Mortalidade Infantil/etnologia , Gravidez , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Estatísticas Vitais , Adulto Jovem
6.
Natl Vital Stat Rep ; 69(7): 1-18, 2020 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32730740

RESUMO

Objectives-This report presents 2018 infant mortality statistics by age at death, maternal race and Hispanic origin, maternal age, gestational age, leading causes of death, and maternal state of residence. Trends in infant mortality are also examined. Methods-Descriptive tabulations of data are presented and interpreted for infant deaths and infant mortality rates using the 2018 period linked birth/infant death file; the linked birth/infant death file is based on birth and death certificates registered in all states and the District of Columbia. Results-A total of 21,498 infant deaths were reported in the United States in 2018. The U.S. infant mortality rate was 5.67 infant deaths per 1,000 live births, lower than the rate of 5.79 in 2017 and an historic low in the country. The neonatal and post neonatal mortality rates for 2018 (3.78 and 1.89, respectively) demonstrated a nonsignificant decline compared with 2017 (3.85 and 1.94, respectively). The 2018 mortality rate declined for infants of Hispanic women compared with the 2017 rate; changes in rates for other race and Hispanic-origin groups were not statistically significant. The 2018 infant mortality rate for infants of non-Hispanic black women (10.75) was more than twice as high as that for infants of non-Hispanic white (4.63), non-Hispanic Asian (3.63), and Hispanic women (4.86). Infants born very preterm (less than 28 weeks of gestation) had the highest mortality rate (382.20), 186 times as high as that for infants born at term (37-41 weeks of gestation) (2.05). The five leading causes of infant death in 2018 were the same as in 2017; cause-of-death rankings and mortality rates varied by maternal race and Hispanic origin. Infant mortality rates by state for 2018 ranged from a low of 3.50 in New Hampshire to a high of 8.41 in Mississippi.


Assuntos
Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Causas de Morte/tendências , Grupos Étnicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Idade Gestacional , Hispano-Americanos/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Lactente , Mortalidade Infantil/etnologia , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Idade Materna , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mães/estatística & dados numéricos , Gravidez , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Estatísticas Vitais , Adulto Jovem
7.
Rev Bras Epidemiol ; 23: e200056, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32578811

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Demonstrating the results of Social Distancing Strategies (SDS) became a relevant factor to obtain support by the population in São Paulo State and in Brazil. The delay in the processing of PCR tests and the small number of tests available limits the ability of sanitary authorities to make meaningful data available as to the number of cases or the number of deaths due to COVID-19. METHODOLOGY: We use a time series analysis of deaths due to COVID-19 referenced to the date of deaths (as opposed to the date in which the test results were obtained). RESULTS: We demonstrate that the SDS adopted in São Paulo City and State clearly brought meaningful results to delay the growth of COVID-19 cases. We also show that by using this type of time series it is possible to identify different trends for regions, allowing for targeted approaches. Additionally, by using a time series which is death-oriented makes it possible to identify, for São Paulo City, the effects of the SDS with the Social Isolation Index (SII) adopted in the state and to make a gross estimate for the SII, which prevents the growth of the disease. CONCLUSION: The use of a time series of deaths due to COVID-19 referenced to the date of the event allows a better understanding of the effects of the SDS on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic in São Paulo State, Brazil.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Isolamento Social , Estatísticas Vitais , Brasil , Causas de Morte , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Atestado de Óbito , Humanos
8.
Washington; Organización Panamericana de la Salud; jun. 15, 2020. 26 p.
Não convencional em Espanhol | LILACS | ID: biblio-1099999

RESUMO

La finalidad de este documento es brindar orientación a los países de América Latina y el Caribe a fin de mejorar la vigilancia de la mortalidad por COVID-19. En este documento se amplían los métodos deanálisis de la mortalidad por todas las causas como uno de los enfoques propuestos para contribuir a la evaluación de la magnitud real de la carga de la epidemia de COVID-19 en los países de América Latina y el Caribe. Este documento está dirigido a las autoridades nacionales de salud, incluidos los equipos de vigilancia epidemiológica y de emergencia de salud pública que participan en la respuesta a la epidemia de COVID-19, así como a otros profesionales o instituciones a cargo de la vigilancia (como los departamentos de epidemiología) y de seguimiento de la mortalidad (como los institutos nacionales de estadística).


Assuntos
Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Vigilância em Saúde Pública/métodos , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidade , Estatísticas Vitais , Região do Caribe/epidemiologia , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/organização & administração , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , América Latina/epidemiologia
9.
Natl Vital Stat Rep ; 69(1): 1-25, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32510312

RESUMO

Objectives-This report quantifies the impact of the inclusion of a pregnancy status checkbox item on the U.S. Standard Certificate of Death on the number of deaths classified as maternal. Maternal mortality rates calculated with and without using the checkbox information for deaths in 2015 and 2016 are presented. Methods-This report is based on cause-of-death information from 2015 and 2016 death certificates collected through the National Vital Statistics System. Records originally assigned to a specified range of ICD-10 codes (i.e., A34, O00-O99) when using information from the checkbox item were recoded without using the checkbox item. Ratios of deaths assigned as maternal deaths using checkbox item information to deaths assigned without checkbox item information were calculated to quantify the impact of the pregnancy status checkbox item on the classification of maternal deaths for 47 states and the District of Columbia. Maternal mortality rates for all jurisdictions calculated using cause-of-death information entered on the certificate with and without the checkbox were compared overall and by characteristics of the decedent. Results-Use of information from the checkbox, along with information from the cause-of-death section of the certificate, identified 1,527 deaths as maternal compared with 498 without the checkbox in 2015 and 2016 (ratio = 3.07), with the impact varying by characteristics of the decedent such as age at death. The ratio for women under age 25 was 2.15 (204 compared with 95 deaths) but was 14.14 (523 compared with 37 deaths) for women aged 40-54. Without the adoption of the checkbox item, maternal mortality rates in both 2015 and 2016 would have been reported as 8.7 deaths per 100,000 live births compared with 8.9 in 2002. With the checkbox, the maternal mortality rate would be reported as 20.9 and 21.8 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2015 and 2016.


Assuntos
Atestado de Óbito , Morte Materna/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade Materna/tendências , Adulto , Causas de Morte , Feminino , Humanos , Classificação Internacional de Doenças , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Gravidez , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Estatísticas Vitais , Adulto Jovem
10.
Natl Vital Stat Rep ; 69(4): 1-20, 2020 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32510316

RESUMO

Objectives-This report presents data on fetal cause of death by maternal age, maternal race and Hispanic origin, fetal sex, period of gestation, birthweight, and plurality. Methods-Descriptive tabulations of data collected on the 2003 U.S. Standard Report of Fetal Death are presented for fetal deaths occurring at 20 weeks of gestation or more for 2015-2017 in a reporting area of 34 states and the District of Columbia, in which less than 50% of deaths were attributed to Fetal death of unspecified cause (P95). Cause-of-death reporting in this area was based on the 2003 fetal death report revision and represents 60% of fetal deaths occurring in the United States during this time. Causes of death are processed in accordance with the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision. Results-Five selected causes account for 89.5% of fetal deaths in the reporting area: Fetal death of unspecified cause; Fetus affected by complications of placenta, cord and membranes; Fetus affected by maternal complications of pregnancy; Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities; and Fetus affected by maternal conditions that may be unrelated to present pregnancy. Conclusions-Cause-of-fetal-death data reported on vital records enable new comparisons of maternal and fetal characteristics and provide information for a larger proportion of the country than other studies. While limited variation was seen among the selected causes across the maternal and fetal characteristics examined, many of the observed variations are consistent with associations that have been documented in the research literature.


Assuntos
Causas de Morte/tendências , Morte Fetal/etiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Classificação Internacional de Doenças , Masculino , Gravidez , Fatores de Risco , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Estatísticas Vitais
11.
BMC Med ; 18(1): 53, 2020 03 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32146905

RESUMO

Please see related article: http://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01520-1.


Assuntos
Estatísticas Vitais , Autopsia , Projetos de Pesquisa
12.
J. health med. sci. (Print) ; 6(1): 45-50, ene.-mar. 2020. tab, ilus
Artigo em Espanhol | LILACS | ID: biblio-1096716

RESUMO

Los métodos de clasificación permiten explorar y analizar grandes conjuntos de datos visualmente, lo cual es de gran utilidad para tomar decisiones rápidas. El objetivo fue comparar dos métodos de análisis de clúster para big data en variables demográficas de las provincias del Ecuador. Se hizo uso de un estudio observacional de tipo comparativo mediante la representación simultanea del HJ-Biplot y el método Two Step (clúster bietápico), a través del software MultBiplot y SPSS. Los datos corresponden a variables demográficas de interés sociosanitarias tasa de mortalidad general, tasa de mortalidad infantil, tasa de natalidad, densidad poblacional, porcentaje urbano y esperanza de vida, medidas en las provincias del Ecuador. Se utilizaron datos provenientes del Instituto de Estadísticas y Censos INEC. Se analizó la asociación entre variables y se identificaron clústeres de las provincias del Ecuador según estas variables demográficas. Según la representación simultánea del HJ-Biplot se identificaron 3 clústeres, el clúster 1 son provincias con mayor densidad poblacional y tasas de mortalidad general, pero valores bajos de tasas de natalidad, el clúster 2 agrupa provincias con mayor esperanza de vida y tasas de mortalidad infantil pero bajos valores de tasa de natalidad y el clúster 3 están las provincias con valores altos de tasas de natalidad y valores bajos de densidad poblacional, esperanza de vida, tasas de mortalidad general y mortalidad infantil, distintos resultados se obtuvieron con el método Two Step. Se pudo concluir que estos métodos son de utilidad para explorar las similitudes entre las provincias según variables demográficas.


The classification methods allow to explore and analyze big data sets visually, which is very useful for making quick decisions. This work aimed to compare of two methods of cluster analysis for big data in demographic variables of the provinces of Ecuador. An observational study of comparative type was carried out through the simultaneous representation of the HJ/Biplot and the Two Step method (two-stage cluster), through the MultBiplot and SPSS software. The data correspond to demographic variables of socio-health interest, general mortality rate, infant mortality rate, birth rate, population density, urban percentage and life expectancy, measured in the provinces of Ecuador. Data from Statistics and Census Institute were used. The association between variables was analyzed and clusters of the provinces of Ecuador were identified according to these demographic variables. According to the simultaneous representation of the HJBiplot, 3 clusters were identified, cluster 1 are provinces with higher population density and general mortality rates, but low birth rates values, cluster 2 are provinces with higher life expectancy and mortality rates infantile but low birth rate values and cluster 3 are the provinces with high birth rates values and low population density, life expectancy, general mortality and infant mortality rates, different results were obtained with the Two Step method. It was concluded that these methods are useful for exploring the similarities between provinces according to demographic variables.


Assuntos
Humanos , Análise por Conglomerados , Demografia , Modelos Estatísticos , Estatísticas Vitais , Equador/epidemiologia
15.
Am J Public Health ; 110(2): 222-229, 2020 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31855478

RESUMO

Objectives. To describe and compare 3 garbage code (GC) redistribution models: naïve Bayes classifier (NB), coarsened exact matching (CEM), and multinomial logistic regression (MLR).Methods. We analyzed Taiwan Vital Registration data (2008-2016) using a 2-step approach. First, we used non-GC death records to evaluate 3 different prediction models (NB, CEM, and MLR), incorporating individual-level information on multiple causes of death (MCDs) and demographic characteristics. Second, we applied the best-performing model to GC death records to predict the underlying causes of death. We conducted additional simulation analyses for evaluating the predictive performance of models.Results. When we did not account for MCDs, all 3 models presented high average misclassification rates in GC assignment (NB, 81%; CEM, 86%; MLR, 81%). In the presence of MCD information, NB and MLR exhibited significant improvement in assignment accuracy (19% and 17% misclassification rate, respectively). Furthermore, CEM without a variable selection procedure resulted in a substantially higher misclassification rate (40%).Conclusions. Comparing potential GC redistribution approaches provides guidance for obtaining better estimates of cause-of-death distribution and highlights the significance of MCD information for vital registration system reform.


Assuntos
Atestado de Óbito , Modelos Estatísticos , Mortalidade/tendências , Saúde Pública , Causas de Morte , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Taiwan , Estatísticas Vitais
18.
Acta Paul. Enferm. (Online) ; 33: e, 2020. tab, graf
Artigo em Português | LILACS | ID: biblio-1088515

RESUMO

Resumo Objetivo Avaliar a qualidade dos dados (concordância e completude) dos óbitos infantis no Sistema de Informações de Mortalidade (SIM) e no Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos (Sinasc), Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil. Métodos Estudo transversal com dados de óbitos infantis capturados no Sinasc e no SIM. Para os óbitos, foi utilizado o período 2013-2016 e para os nascidos vivos, o de 2012-2016. Foi utilizado o linkage determinístico. Calculou-se a porcentagem de incompletude de 10 variáveis comuns a ambas as bases, antes e após a vinculação das bases de dados. A concordância foi avaliada pelo índice Kappa para variáveis qualitativas, e pelo coeficiente de correlação intraclasse (ICC do inglês intraclass correlation coefficient) para variáveis quantitativas. Resultados Foi possível relacionar 96,64% dos óbitos às respectivas declarações de nascidos vivos. Todas as variáveis analisadas foram classificadas como excelentes (menos de 5% de incompletude), antes e após a vinculação das bases de dados. No Sinasc, a maior incompletude ocorreu na variável duração da gestação (1,55%), e no SIM, no número de natimortos (2,89%). A concordância foi classificada como quase perfeita para todas as variáveis qualitativas (Kappa entre 0,8 e 1). Todas as variáveis quantitativas foram classificadas como excelentes (ICC maior que 0,75). Conclusão Apesar dos avanços na qualidade do SIM e do Sinasc, ainda houve problemas de completude das variáveis, principalmente no SIM. A vinculação das bases de dados contribuiu para aprimorar as informações para a análise de óbitos infantis pelos serviços de saúde e para pesquisa. O linkage uma técnica de fácil acesso e baixo custo operacional, que pode ser incluída na rotina de vigilância da mortalidade infantil para a melhoria contínua das informações.


Resumen Objetivo Evaluar la calidad de los datos (concordancia y completitud) de defunciones infantiles en el Sistema de Información de Mortalidad (SIM) y en el Sistema de Información sobre Nacidos Vivos (Sinasc), Recife, estado de Pernambuco, Brasil. Métodos Estudio transversal con datos de defunciones infantiles registrados en el Sinasc y en el SIM. Para las defunciones, se utilizó el período 2013-2016 y para los nacidos vivos, 2012-2016. Fue utilizada la vinculación determinística. Se calculó el porcentaje de incompletitud de 10 variables comunes de ambas bases, antes y después de su vinculación. La concordancia fue evaluada por el índice Kappa en las variables cualitativas y por el coeficiente de correlación intraclase (ICC, por sus siglas en inglés intraclass correlation coefficient) en las variables cuantitativas. Resultados Fue posible relacionar 96,64% de las defunciones con las respectivas declaraciones de nacidos vivos. Todas las variables analizadas fueron clasificadas como excelentes (menos de 5% de incompletitud), antes y después de la vinculación de las bases de datos. En el Sinasc, la mayor incompletitud ocurrió en la variable duración de la gestación (1,55%) y, en el SIM, en el número de mortinatos (2,89%). La concordancia fue clasificada como casi perfecta en todas las variables cualitativas (Kappa entre 0,8 y 1). Todas las variables cuantitativas fueron clasificadas como excelentes (ICC mayor a 0,75). Conclusión A pesar de los avances en la calidad del SIM y del Sinasc, aún hay problemas de completitud de las variables, principalmente en el SIM. La vinculación de las bases de datos contribuyó en la mejora de la información para el análisis de defunciones infantiles por parte de los servicios de salud y para estudios. La vinculación es una técnica de fácil acceso y bajo costo operativo, que puede incluirse en la rutina de la vigilancia de la mortalidad infantil para la mejora continua de la información.


Abstract Objective To assess the quality of data (agreement and completeness) on infant deaths in the Mortality Information System (SIM) and in the Information System on Live Births (Sinasc), Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil. Methods Cross-sectional study with data on infant deaths captured in Sinasc and SIM. For the deaths, the period 2013-2016 and the live births of 2012-2016 were used. The deterministic linkage was used. The percentage of incompleteness of 10 variables common to both bases pre- and post-linkage was calculated. The agreement was assessed by the Kappa index for qualitative variables and by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the quantitative variables. Results It was possible to relate 96.64% of the deaths to their respective declaration of live birth. All analyzed variables were classified as excellent (less than 5% incompleteness), pre- and post-linkage. In Sinasc, the greatest incompleteness was in the variable length of pregnancy (1.55%) and in the SIM, the number of stillbirths (2.89%). The agreement was classified as almost perfect for all qualitative variables (Kappa between 0.8 and 1). All quantitative variables were excellent (ICC greater than 0.75). Conclusion Despite advances in the quality of SIM and Sinasc, there were still problems of completeness of variables, especially in SIM. The linkage contributed to the improvement of information for the analysis of infant deaths by health services and for research. It is a technique that is easy to access and low operational cost, which can be included in the routine of infant mortality surveillance for the continuous improvement of information.


Assuntos
Humanos , Mortalidade Infantil , Registros de Mortalidade , Estatísticas Vitais , Registro de Nascimento , Sistemas de Informação em Saúde , Epidemiologia Descritiva , Estudos Transversais , Armazenamento e Recuperação da Informação
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