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3.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(3): e212816, 2021 03 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33688968

RESUMO

Importance: Data on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence in the United States are still emerging. Objective: To elucidate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and symptom onset in a culturally linked community across 5 states in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included adults (aged ≥18 years) recruited from the orthodox Jewish community across 5 states (California, Connecticut, Michigan, New Jersey, and New York) in 3 geographically distinct areas of the United States between May 13 and July 6, 2020. Participants completed an online survey and underwent SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. Main Outcomes and Measures: Seroprevalence and date of symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2. Results: Overall, 9507 adults (mean [SD] age, 39.6 [15.0] years; 3777 [39.7%] women) completed the SARS-CoV-2 survey, of whom 6665 (70.1%) had immunoglobin G anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels assessed. A high seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was observed across all communities, with the highest proportion of positive testing observed in New Jersey (1080 of 3323 [32.5%]) and New York (671 of 2196 [30.6%]). Most individuals with a positive SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobin G antibody test reported a date of symptom-onset between March 9 and March 31, 2020 (California: 135 of 154 [87.7%]; Connecticut: 32 of 34 [94.1%]; Michigan: 44 of 50 [88.0%]; New Jersey: 964 of 1168 [82.5%]; New York: 571 of 677 [84.3%]). This start date was coincident with the Jewish festival of Purim, celebrated March 9 to 10, 2020, with extensive intracommunity spread in the weeks following (mean and mode of peak symptom onset, March 20, 2020), occurring in the absence of strong general and culture-specific public health directives. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study of orthodox Jewish adults across the US found that socioculturally bound communities experienced early parallel outbreaks in discrete locations, notably prior to substantive medical and governmental directives. Further research should clarify optimal national, local, community-based, and government policies to prevent outbreaks in social and cultural communities that traditionally gather for holidays, assemblies, and festivals.


Assuntos
/epidemiologia , Assistência à Saúde Culturalmente Competente , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa , Férias e Feriados , Judeus/estatística & dados numéricos , Grupos Minoritários , Saúde Pública , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , California/epidemiologia , Connecticut/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Surtos de Doenças , Feminino , Humanos , Judaísmo , Masculino , Michigan/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , New Jersey/epidemiologia , New York/epidemiologia , Características de Residência , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
4.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 1614, 2021 03 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33712603

RESUMO

The role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.


Assuntos
/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Número Básico de Reprodução/prevenção & controle , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Férias e Feriados , Hospitalização , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Biológicos , Modelos Estatísticos , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Instituições Acadêmicas , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Adulto Jovem
5.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 274, 2021 Mar 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33736606

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In 2010-2011, we conducted a social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, aimed at improving and extending the design of the first social contact survey conducted in Belgium in 2006. This second social contact survey aimed to enable, for the first time, the estimation of social mixing patterns for an age range of 0 to 99 years and the investigation of whether contact rates remain stable over this 5-year time period. METHODS: Different data mining techniques are used to explore the data, and the age-specific number of social contacts and the age-specific contact rates are modelled using a generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model. We compare different matrices using assortativeness measures. The relative change in the basic reproduction number (R0) and the ratio of relative incidences with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (BCI) are employed to investigate and quantify the impact on epidemic spread due to differences in sex, day of the week, holiday vs. regular periods and changes in mixing patterns over the 5-year time gap between the 2006 and 2010-2011 surveys. Finally, we compare the fit of the contact matrices in 2006 and 2010-2011 to Varicella serological data. RESULTS: All estimated contact patterns featured strong homophily in age and sex, especially for small children and adolescents. A 30% (95% BCI [17%; 37%]) and 29% (95% BCI [14%; 40%]) reduction in R0 was observed for weekend versus weekdays and for holiday versus regular periods, respectively. Significantly more interactions between people aged 60+ years and their grandchildren were observed on holiday and weekend days than on regular weekdays. Comparing contact patterns using different methods did not show any substantial differences over the 5-year time period under study. CONCLUSIONS: The second social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, endorses the findings of its 2006 predecessor and adds important information on the social mixing patterns of people older than 60 years of age. Based on this analysis, the mixing patterns of people older than 60 years exhibit considerable heterogeneity, and overall, the comparison of the two surveys shows that social contact rates can be assumed stable in Flanders over a time span of 5 years.


Assuntos
Número Básico de Reprodução , Epidemias , Rede Social , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Bélgica/epidemiologia , Varicela/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Busca de Comunicante , Família , Feminino , Férias e Feriados , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto Jovem
6.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33673163

RESUMO

Western countries are experiencing surges in COVID-19 cases and deaths due to increasing public transportation during holiday seasons. This study aimed to explore whether mainland China will face an epidemic rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, when millions of Chinese people travel across the country, and investigate which nucleic acid testing (NAT) strategy is optimal to contain the epidemic. A microsimulation model was used to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission among railway travelers and evaluated the effects of various NAT strategies. An extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model was built to forecast local transmission during the Spring Festival period under different scenarios of testing strategies. The total number of infections, testing burden, and medical expenditure were calculated to devise an optimal strategy during the Spring Festival travel rush. Assuming the daily incidence of 20 per 10 million persons, our model simulated that there would be 97 active infections on the day of travel among 10 million railway passengers without NAT and symptom screening. Pre-travel testing could reduce the number of active infections. Compared with no NAT, testing passengers from risk tier 2-4 regions 3 days before travelling could significantly reduce the risk of transmission, and it is more economical and efficient than testing for all passengers.


Assuntos
/diagnóstico , Férias e Feriados , Viagem , /transmissão , China/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Estações do Ano
7.
Eur J Public Health ; 31(2): 272-277, 2021 04 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33624821

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: This aggregated population study investigated the impact of the seemingly quasi-randomly assigned school winter holiday in weeks 6-10 (February to early March) on excess mortality in 219 European regions (11 countries) during the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring 2020. A secondary aim was to evaluate the impact of government responses to the early inflow of infected cases. METHODS: Data on government responses weeks 8-14 were obtained from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Regional data on total all-cause mortality during weeks 14-23 in 2020 were retrieved from Eurostat and national statistical agencies and compared with the average mortality during same period 2015-2019. Variance-weighted least square regression was used with mortality difference as dependent variable with adjustment for country, population density and age distribution. RESULTS: Being a region with winter holiday exclusively in week 9 was in the adjusted analysis associated with 16 weekly excess deaths [95% confidence interval (CI) 13-20] per million inhabitants during weeks 14-23, which corresponds to 38% of the excess mortality in these regions. A more stringent response implemented in week 11, corresponding to 10 additional units on the 0-100 ordinal scale, was associated with 20 fewer weekly deaths (95% CI 18-22) per million inhabitants. CONCLUSIONS: Winter holiday in week 9 was an amplifying event that contributed importantly to the excess mortality observed in the study regions during the spring 2020. Timely government responses to the resulting early inflow of cases reduced the excess in mortality.


Assuntos
Governo , Férias e Feriados , Instituições Acadêmicas , Estações do Ano , /mortalidade , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Instituições Acadêmicas/organização & administração
8.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33540871

RESUMO

In Northern Ireland, nearly 30% of children are thought to be at risk of going hungry in the summer holidays when they are unable to access free school meals. Community groups, voluntary groups, local authorities, and faith groups have responded to this concern by developing and delivering holiday programmes that enable children from low-income families to take part in activities and access food. The current study used purposive sampling to investigate children's and young people's views of holiday provision, from across three holiday clubs, in Northern Ireland. Both primary school children (n = 34; aged 4-11) and secondary school children (n = 31; aged 12-17) showed high levels of awareness of poverty and food insecurity and associated pressures and stresses on households. Importantly, children and young people did not feel stigmatised about attending holiday provision, suggesting a positive and inclusive culture towards holiday club attendance. Children reported that they enjoyed the range of activities provided at holiday clubs and reported that attendance improved their self-confidence, especially for some older children, who acted as peer mentors to younger attendees, helped them to develop new skills, and provided them with opportunities to socialise with peers in a safe environment, out with their normal social groupings in school. Older children showed a high level of shrewdness and knowledge of sectarian divides in communities but spoke positively about how different religious or cultural backgrounds did not matter in terms of meeting and making new friends in holiday club settings. In terms of food provision, the findings of this study suggest that further work needs to be done to support children to access and eat healthy, nutritious food.


Assuntos
Férias e Feriados , Pobreza , Adolescente , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Abastecimento de Alimentos , Humanos , Irlanda do Norte , Instituições Acadêmicas
9.
Environ Monit Assess ; 193(3): 149, 2021 Feb 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33638117

RESUMO

The study evaluated the particulate matter trend and trace element concentrations, during the Diwali week for two consecutive years, November 2018 and October 2019. Diwali celebrations worsen the city's air quality from poor to a severe category of air quality index (AQI). A peak rise in PM10 concentration was found on Diwali day, 1.8 times more than a normal day of the same period. The concentration was 5.6-fold more than the permissible limit prescribed by National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), India, and 11.26-fold higher than the permissible limit of World Health Organization (WHO). The more firework bursting in the year 2019 results in the rise of PM10 concentration by 132% compared with the previous year. Lead (Pb), a carcinogen, was found in higher levels, in Diwali samples of year 2019. The average metal concentration on Diwali day was found in the following order: Pb (396.17) > Cu (70.34) > Mn (66.34) > Cr (29.66) > Ni (4.96) in year 2019 while Ni (195.20) > Pb (149.45) > Mn (64.85) > Cu (13.44) in year 2018. A significant positive correlation between Cr and Pb, Cu and Pb, Cr and Cu, and with PM10 have been observed, indicating their emission from a common source and the contribution of firecrackers to particulate pollution. Principal component analysis (PCA) identified the contribution of the bursting of firecrackers and vehicular emissions towards PM10 pollution in the year 2019 and vehicular emissions and dust resuspension in the year 2018 over the megacity Prayagraj.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Cidades , Monitoramento Ambiental , Férias e Feriados , Índia , Material Particulado/análise
10.
Epidemiol Infect ; 149: e28, 2021 01 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33455588

RESUMO

As the on-going severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic, we aimed to understand whether economic reopening (EROP) significantly influenced coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence. COVID-19 data from Texas Health and Human Services between March and August 2020 were analysed. COVID-19 incidence rate (cases per 100 000 population) was compared to statewide for selected urban and rural counties. We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify changes in trends of COVID-19 incidence and interrupted time-series analyses for potential impact of state EROP orders on COVID-19 incidence. We found that the incidence rate increased to 145.1% (95% CI 8.4-454.5%) through 4th April, decreased by 15.5% (95% CI -24.4 -5.9%) between 5th April and 30th May, increased by 93.1% (95% CI 60.9-131.8%) between 31st May and 11th July and decreased by 13.2% (95% CI -22.2 -3.2%) after 12 July 2020. The study demonstrates the EROP policies significantly impacted trends in COVID-19 incidence rates and accounted for increases of 129.9 and 164.6 cases per 100 000 populations for the 24- or 17-week model, respectively, along with other county and state reopening ordinances. The incidence rate decreased sharply after 12th July considering the emphasis on a facemask or covering requirement in business and social settings.


Assuntos
/economia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Adulto , Feminino , Férias e Feriados , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Texas/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33401486

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Research suggests that drivers tend to engage in risk-taking behaviours on public holidays. Studies that examined the association between holidays (or other special days) and fatal injuries are inconsistent. This study used UK STATS19 data to investigate the associations of nine public holidays on road crash casualties. METHODS: This retrospective study assessed UK STATS19 crash data for 1990-2017. All casualties from two vehicle crashes were initially considered; subsequently, casualties with missing data were excluded. Multiple logistic regression was estimated to explore the associations of potential risk factors with the likelihood of killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties and to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AORs). RESULTS: In total, 3,751,998 casualties from traffic accidents in the United Kingdom during 1990-2017 were included in the final data set; among these, 410,299 (10.9%) were KSI casualties, and 3,341,699 (89.1%) were slight injuries. Crashes on public holidays were 16% (AOR = 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13-1.19) more likely to involve KSI casualties than were crashes on non-holidays. With other factors controlled for, crashes during the Queen's 2002 Golden Jubilee and on New Year's Day were 48% (AOR = 1.48; 95% CI = 1.06-2.07) and 36% (AOR = 1.36; 1.26-1.48) more likely to lead to KSIs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of crashes resulting in KSI casualties on public holidays was higher than that on non-holidays. Furthermore, crashes during the Queen's 2002 Golden Jubilee had the highest risk of KSI casualties followed by New Year's Day.


Assuntos
Acidentes de Trânsito , Férias e Feriados , Ferimentos e Lesões , Acidentes de Trânsito/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Férias e Feriados/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Ferimentos e Lesões/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
13.
Med J Aust ; 213(11): 521-523, 2020 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33314112

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the circulation lifespan of forks and teaspoons in an institutional tearoom. DESIGN: Longitudinal quality improvement study, based on prospective tracking of marked teaspoons and forks. SETTING: Staff tearoom in a public teaching and research hospital, Brisbane. PARTICIPANTS: Tearoom patrons blinded to the purposes of the study. INTERVENTION: Stainless steel forks and teaspoons (18 each) were marked with red spots and introduced alongside existing cutlery (81 items) in the tearoom. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Twice weekly count of marked forks and teaspoons for seven weeks; baseline and end of study count of all utensils on day 45. RESULTS: The loss of marked teaspoons (six of 18) was greater than that of forks (one of 18) by the conclusion of the study period (P = 0.038). The overall rate of utensil loss was 2.2 per 100 days for teaspoons and spoons, and -2.2 per 100 days for forks and knives. CONCLUSIONS: Teaspoon disappearance is a more substantial problem than fork migration in a multidisciplinary staff tearoom, and may reflect different kleptomaniacal or individual appropriation tendencies. If giving cutlery this Christmas, give teaspoons, not forks. The symbolism of fork rebirth or resurrection is appropriate for both Christmas and Easter, and forks are also mighty useful implements for eating cake!


Assuntos
Senso de Humor e Humor como Assunto , Utensílios de Alimentação e Culinária/estatística & dados numéricos , Férias e Feriados , Hospitais de Ensino , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Recursos Humanos em Hospital , Melhoria de Qualidade
14.
PLoS One ; 15(12): e0244597, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33382771

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In Denmark, 16,500 cases of melanoma and keratinocyte cancers were registered in 2015, of which 90% could have been avoided by behavioral changes. We aimed to test novel interventions in a randomized design. The interventions targeted Danes going on vacation to high UVI destinations aiming to decrease sunburn by increasing use of sun protection to prevent skin cancer in the Danish population. METHODS: We report a randomized behavioral intervention during May-Dec 2018 with 1548 Danish adults on vacation in 2018 for a period of 1-3 weeks. The study population was population-based and aged 18-65 years. We tested two protection routines against minimal intervention control group (2-by2-factorial design): 1) Avoidance of the sun during peak hours and shade, use of the UV-index and planning of indoor/outdoor activity respectively and, 2) Coverage by increasing use of the hat advice and increasing sunscreen amount by application routine. Outcome was use of protection and sunburn. RESULTS: There were no differences in sunburn prevalence between intervention and control groups. Protection routine 1 and 2 both increased the overall protection score compared to non-users. Protection routine 1 increased the reported use of shade and decreased time exposed in the sun. Protection routine 2 increased the use of hat and sunscreen amount. CONCLUSION: Simple measures can help avoid the majority of one of the most widespread cancers worldwide. Vacations to high UVI destinations is a major influence on the annual Danish UV-exposure. We influenced travelers to protect themselves better and to increase sun protection behavior.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Cutâneas/prevenção & controle , Queimadura Solar/prevenção & controle , Protetores Solares/uso terapêutico , Adulto , Dinamarca , Feminino , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Férias e Feriados , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias Cutâneas/psicologia , Queimadura Solar/psicologia , Resultado do Tratamento , Adulto Jovem
17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33322228

RESUMO

Discharging fireworks during the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations is a deep-rooted custom in China. In this paper, we analyze the effect of this cultural activity on PM2.5 concentration using both ground observations and satellite data. By combining remote sensing data, the problem of uneven spatial distribution of ground monitoring has been compensated, and the research time span has been expanded. The results show that the extensive firework displays on New Year's Eve lead to a remarkable increase in nationwide PM2.5 concentration, which were 159~223% of the average level, indicating the instantaneous effect far exceeds that of any other factor over the whole year. However, the averaged PM2.5 concentrations of the celebration period were 0.99~16.32 µg/m3 lower compared to the average values of the corresponding pre-celebration period and post-celebration period, indicating the sustained effect is not very significant. The implementation of firework prohibition policies can greatly reduce the instantaneous PM2.5 increase, but no obvious air quality improvement is observed over the entire celebration period. Combining these findings and the cultural significance of this activity, we recommend that this custom is actively maintained, using new technologies and scientific governance programs to minimize the negative effects.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Monitoramento Ambiental , Férias e Feriados , Material Particulado , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , China , Material Particulado/análise
18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33375099

RESUMO

The present study examined the relationship between social capital, local festival participation, and subjective well-being. Moreover, this study examined whether the effect of social capital on subjective well-being can be mediated by festival participation. In addition, it examined the decomposition effect of festival participation and control of models for demographic characteristics. Data used are from the International Comparative Survey on Lifestyle and Values (ICSLV) SWB South Korea Survey. The total number of respondents for the analysis is 1694. The findings indicate that trustful relationships with family and relatives, friends, and neighbors are considerably related to subjective well-being than structural social capital. Moreover, the trust of informal social ties shows considerable potential in facilitating individuals' local festival participation, which is associated with subjective well-being. Individuals who often participate in traditional local festivals in their communities show higher subjective well-being than those who never attend any festivals. Local festivals in communities can play an important role in strengthening links with individuals in these communities and affect community residents' well-being. Lastly, the findings can suggest beneficial theoretical and practical implications, and enrich the previous literature on social capital and festival participation.


Assuntos
Férias e Feriados , Relações Interpessoais , Capital Social , Participação Social , Apoio Social , Adulto , Idoso , Família , Feminino , Amigos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , República da Coreia , Confiança , Adulto Jovem
20.
Intern Med J ; 50(12): 1598, 2020 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33354888
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