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1.
Food Chem ; 399: 133902, 2023 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36027808

RESUMO

The aim of this manuscript was to validate and apply an analytical methodology for the simultaneous determination of 34 mycotoxins in cocoa. The extraction method used in the tests was a liquid-liquid partition by NaCl addition with a freezing step followed by quantification using LC-MS/MS. The results were discussed based on national and international directives for food contaminants. The recoveries and precision were adequate, except for the mycotoxins ionized with the ammonium adduct (NH4+), E-cristinine and ß-ZOL. This result directly influenced the measurement uncertainty of these mycotoxins, because the precision and the correction factor of the recovery were the factors with the greatest impact on the uncertainty of the method. The evaluation of the matrix effect showed considerable signal suppression for 53 % of the evaluated mycotoxins. Nevertheless, the mycotoxins exhibited relatively low quantification limits, with values between 1 and 75 µg kg-1. The validated methodology was applied to 15 cocoa samples collected in warehouses in Brazil. Positive results were found for all the evaluated samples, in which nine toxins were detected out of the 34 investigated.


Assuntos
Cacau , Micotoxinas , Cromatografia Líquida de Alta Pressão/métodos , Cromatografia Líquida/métodos , Micotoxinas/análise , Espectrometria de Massas em Tandem/métodos , Incerteza
2.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 15077, 2022 Sep 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36064793

RESUMO

Performance assessment in deep geological nuclear waste repository systems necessitates an extended knowledge of the pore water chemical conditions prevailing in host-rock formations. In the last two decades, important progress has been made in the experimental characterization and thermodynamic modeling of pore water speciation, but the influence of experimental artifacts and uncertainties of thermodynamic input parameters are seldom evaluated. In this respect, we conducted an uncertainty propagation study in a reference geochemical model describing the pore water chemistry of the Callovian-Oxfordian clay formation. Nineteen model input parameters were perturbed, including those associated to experimental characterization (leached anions, exchanged cations, cation exchange selectivity coefficients) and those associated to generic thermodynamic databases (solubilities). A set of 13 quantities of interest were studied by the use of polynomial chaos expansions built non-intrusively with a least-squares forward stepwise regression approach. Training and validation sets of simulations were carried out using the geochemical speciation code PHREEQC. The statistical results explored the marginal distribution of each quantity of interest, their bivariate correlations as well as their global sensitivity indices. The influence of the assumed distributions for input parameters uncertainties was evaluated by considering two parametric domain sizes.


Assuntos
Resíduos Radioativos , Água , Cátions , Argila , Geologia , Modelos Teóricos , Incerteza , Água/química
3.
Comput Intell Neurosci ; 2022: 8415169, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36072740

RESUMO

Crew scheduling problem is divided into crew pairing problem (CPP) and crew rostering problem (CRP). In this paper, a rostering model is presented to assign crew to pairings in such a way that total weighted preference is maximized. Crew members declare which parings they wish to be assigned and which ones are undesirable for them. A score is calculated in the objective function if a crew member is assigned to his/her preferred pairing, and a penalty is considered if he/she is assigned to an undesirable pairing. Moreover, crew seniorities are considered in calculating total preference. In addition, the model considers standard rules and regulations as well as crew attendance at the required training courses. The model is formulated in such a way that inconsistent crew members are not assigned to a flight. Due to the uncertainty in determining of the seniority weight, this parameter is considered as fuzzy. At the end, the robust counterpart of the nominal model is developed due to the uncertainty of time away from the base (TAFB). In this research, the issue of inconsistent crew in rostering problem is considered for the first time. Moreover, a new scoring mechanism is introduced to calculate desirable and undesirable assignments in the objective function. The proposed CRP is solved using the genetic algorithm (GA), and its performance is verified in comparison with GAMS in some test problems. On average, the optimality gap in GA is only 0.5 percent. Finally, the proposed model is examined with real-world data from Air India Airline. In comparison with the previous research studies, the suggested model (scoring mechanism) reduced the number of undesirable rosters by 61.59%.


Assuntos
Incerteza , Feminino , Humanos , Índia , Masculino
4.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 14931, 2022 Sep 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36056050

RESUMO

Immense effort has been exerted in the materials informatics community towards enhancing the accuracy of machine learning (ML) models; however, the uncertainty quantification (UQ) of state-of-the-art algorithms also demands further development. Most prominent UQ methods are model-specific or are related to the ensembles of models; therefore, there is a need to develop a universal technique that can be readily applied to a single model from a diverse set of ML algorithms. In this study, we suggest a new UQ measure known as the Δ-metric to address this issue. The presented quantitative criterion was inspired by the k-nearest neighbor approach adopted for applicability domain estimation in chemoinformatics. It surpasses several UQ methods in accurately ranking the predictive errors and could be considered a low-cost option for a more advanced deep ensemble strategy. We also evaluated the performance of the presented UQ measure on various classes of materials, ML algorithms, and types of input features, thus demonstrating its universality.


Assuntos
Aprendizado de Máquina , Ciência dos Materiais , Algoritmos , Análise por Conglomerados , Incerteza
5.
J Environ Manage ; 320: 115821, 2022 Oct 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36056481

RESUMO

The urbanization process has seen an accelerated increase in recent decades, leading to urban runoff pollution becoming more prominent. However, uncertainty of the pollution output and complexity of management systems have made controlling urban runoff pollution challenging. Therefore, it is necessary to propose advanced modeling methods for these challenges. This research presents an integrated urban runoff pollution management (IURPM) model for optimal configuration of low impact development (LID) practices under multiple uncertainties. The IURPM model combines the hybrid land-use prediction and improved pollution estimation models with interval parameter, stochastic parameter, and multi-objective programming. The proposed IURPM model can not only predict the output characteristics, but also provide optimal configuration schemes for the LID practices in the management of urban runoff pollution under multiple scenarios. In addition, uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals and probability density function in the management systems can be effectively addressed. A case study of the IURPM model was conducted in Dongguan City, South China. Results show that considerable amounts of urban runoff pollutants would export from Dongguan City by 2025. The export loads and pollution output flux per unit area would have significant spatial heterogeneity. The results further indicate that population size, gross domestic product, and regional area size are expected to play important roles in the pollution export, while impervious surface coverage and population density would likely have great influences on the output flux of urban runoff pollution. Based on the model findings, multiple LID practices should be adopted in Dongguan City to reduce the urban runoff pollution loads. Using the IURPM model, multiple LID implementation schemes can be obtained under different pollution reduction scenarios and significance levels, that can provide decision-making support for urban water environmental management, considering variations in the policymaker's decision-making preferences. This study demonstrates that the IURPM model can be applied to the optimal configuration of LID practices for the management of urban runoff pollution under uncertainty.


Assuntos
Modelos Teóricos , Chuva , China , Cidades , Monitoramento Ambiental , Incerteza , Urbanização , Movimentos da Água
6.
Comput Intell Neurosci ; 2022: 8229956, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36059404

RESUMO

Risk society is full of emergencies, accompanied by uncertainties and losses. Under emergencies, controlling herd behaviour is challenging due to more interactions and changes among individuals. This research establishes Bayes conditional probability models to explain the fair transmission of individual signals and individual decision-making after receiving others' signals. The simulation shows the following conclusions: first, each individual has a fair chance to influence the mainstream information; second, the order in which individuals make decisions during an emergency affects the difficulties and likelihood of making a rational decision; third, the high authority of information can become mainstream and guide individual behaviour; and fourth, two individual characteristics, including risk appetite and personal experience, are important in the fair transmission of individual signals and formation of mainstream information. According to the findings, this research proposes two strategies, including interfering with information and controlling existing key opinion leaders to control the mainstream information within a group in emergencies. These two strategies are proved to be useful in detecting and preventing approaches to alleviate individual herd behaviour, which should be monitored and controlled in machine learning models for individual behaviour simulation and prediction. Compared to previous research that focuses on media and public opinion in emergencies, this research focuses on a specific type of information (i.e., individual decision-making and actions) on the individual level and its effects on herd behaviours within the group. This research complements the explanation of the micro-mechanism of how individuals receive information and make decisions and actions.


Assuntos
Tomada de Decisões , Emergências , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Probabilidade , Incerteza
7.
Front Public Health ; 10: 950010, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36045731

RESUMO

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a growing body of literature has focused on the impact of the uncertainty of the world pandemic (WPU) on commodity prices. Using the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2020, we run the TVP-SVAR-SV model to study the time-varying impact of WPU on China's commodity prices. Specifically, we select minerals, non-ferrous metals, energy and steel commodities for a categorical comparison and measure the impact of WPU accordingly. The findings are as follows. First, WPU has a significant time-varying impact on China's commodity prices, and the short-term effect is greater than the long-term effect. Second, compared with the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008 and China's stock market crash in the second quarter of 2015, WPU had a greatest impact on Chinese commodity prices during the COVID-19 pandemic event in the fourth quarter of 2019. Third, significant differences exist in the impact of WPU on the four major commodity prices. Among them, WPU has the largest time-varying impact on the price of minerals but the smallest time-varying impact on that of steel.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Aço , Incerteza
8.
Health Promot Int ; 37(4)2022 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36047641

RESUMO

This study establishes a theoretical framework for assessing antecedents of cyberchondria, which is a process of amplified anxiety about one's health because of excessive online health information seeking. We examined the framework through partial least squares structural equation modeling after collecting data through a cross-sectional online survey. This research contributes to the literature by (i) evaluating the roles of health anxiety (HA) and affective responses (AR) on cyberchondria; (ii) equipping health strategists with understanding about ways to tailor their educational and communication strategies to specific segments by importance-performance map analysis and necessary condition analysis. Finally, by (iii) providing strategic tactics to curb cyberchondria so that it becomes possible to attain a better patient outcome. Findings suggest that the existing association between intolerance of uncertainty and cyberchondria is serially mediated by HA and AR. For healthcare educators and practitioners, the findings of this research deliver a blueprint for effectively controlling cyberchondria.


Assuntos
Ansiedade , Hipocondríase , Ansiedade/psicologia , Transtornos de Ansiedade , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , Hipocondríase/psicologia , Internet , Incerteza
9.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 15167, 2022 Sep 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36071137

RESUMO

This research introduces a new combined modelling approach for mapping soil salinity in the Minab plain in southern Iran. This study assessed the uncertainty (with 95% confidence limits) and interpretability of two deep learning (DL) models (deep boltzmann machine-DBM) and a one dimensional convolutional neural networks (1DCNN)-long short-term memory (LSTM) hybrid model (1DCNN-LSTM) for mapping soil salinity by applying DeepQuantreg and game theory (Shapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and permutation feature importance measure (PFIM)), respectively. Based on stepwise forward regression (SFR)-a technique for controlling factor selection, 18 of 47 potential controls were selected as effective factors. Inventory maps of soil salinity were generated based on 476 surface soil samples collected for measuring electrical conductivity (ECe). Based on Taylor diagrams, both DL models performed well (RMSE < 20%), but the 1DCNN-LSTM hybrid model performed slightly better than the DBM model. The uncertainty range associated with the ECe values predicted by both models estimated using DeepQuantilreg were similar (0-25 dS/m for the 1DCNN-LSTM hybrid model and 2-27 dS/m for DBM model). Based on the SFR and PFIM (permutation feature importance measure)-a measure in game theory, four controls (evaporation, sand content, precipitation and vertical distance to channel) were selected as the most important factors for soil salinity in the study area. The results of SHAP (Shapely Additive exPlanations)-the second measure used in game theory-suggested that five factors (evaporation, vertical distance to channel, sand content, cation exchange capacity (CEC) and digital elevation model (DEM)) have the strongest impact on model outputs. Overall, the methodology used in this study is recommend for applications in other regions for mapping environmental problems.


Assuntos
Aprendizado Profundo , Solo , Teoria do Jogo , Salinidade , Areia , Incerteza
10.
S Afr J Commun Disord ; 69(2): e1-e11, 2022 Aug 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36073072

RESUMO

BACKGROUND:  In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. Management of this pandemic had significant implications for clinical departments across the world. Healthcare systems were urgently required to reorganise and redesign patient care as well as repurpose staff. OBJECTIVES:  We will share the lived experience of our response as speech therapy and audiology (STA) clinicians to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD:  This study adopted an autoethnographic approach within Bronfenbrenner's bioecological model to describe STA clinicians' response to the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS:  Adaptations to practice were made to continue service provision whilst adhering to COVID-19 regulations. We assisted in other areas to meet the immediate needs of the hospital. Service delivery strategies consisted of a review of clinical and quality assurance protocols. We developed a telehealth service package which included a hybrid approach, within a context of digital poverty. We created resources to ensure continuity of care. Collaboration within our systems facilitated innovative solutions. Mental health and well-being of staff members were key to the response developed. CONCLUSION:  South African healthcare systems' inequalities were highlighted by the pandemic. The response showed that the needs of vulnerable populations were not accounted for when developing this public health response. Lessons learnt included the importance of adaptability, becoming comfortable with uncertainty and maintaining open and transparent communication. Consultation and collaboration within various levels of our healthcare system were critical in responding to the needs of patients. Commitment to compassionate leadership and staff well-being were crucial.


Assuntos
Audiologia , COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Hospitais , Humanos , Pandemias , Fonoterapia , Incerteza
11.
Rev Med Interne ; 43(9): 521-523, 2022 09.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36055743
12.
Sensors (Basel) ; 22(17)2022 Aug 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36080873

RESUMO

Precipitation is among the most important meteorological variables for, e.g., meteorological, hydrological, water management and climate studies. In recent years, non-catching precipitation gauges are increasingly adopted in meteorological networks. Despite such growing diffusion, calibration procedures and associated uncertainty budget are not yet standardized or prescribed in best practice documents and standards. This paper reports a metrological study aimed at proposing calibration procedures and completing the uncertainty budgets, to make non-catching precipitation gauge measurements traceable to primary standards. The study is based on the preliminary characterization of different rain drop generators, specifically developed for the investigation. Characterization of different models of non-catching rain gauges is also included.


Assuntos
Hidrologia , Chuva , Calibragem , Meteorologia , Incerteza
13.
Wiad Lek ; 75(8 pt 1): 1839-1844, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36089866

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The aim: The aim of the article is to empirically study the features of tolerance to uncertainty in late adulthood in groups of working and retired people and test the hypothesis of the impact of communication in social networks as one of the possible ways to increase mental well-being in this category of people. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and methods: The study was conducted in 2021 in the Lviv region of Ukraine. Forty people aged 60 - 75 were interviewed. Among them there were 20 people with a 40-hour working week and 20 retired people. To assess the level of tolerance to uncertainty, the tolerance scale by D. L. McLain (modified by E.M. Osin) has been used; to determine the level of dependence on social networks, the Bergen Facebook Addiction Scale (having tested 20 people who are retired in the age group 60-75 ) has been applied. RESULTS: Results: The results of the study showed that: (1) the level of the integrated indicator of "tolerance to uncertainty" is higher among people who work than among those who are retired; (2) people of the age group of 60-75 who work have higher values in all components of the uncertainty tolerance indicator; (3) there is a high interdependence between the expansion of the communication environment through communication in social networks and the level of tolerance to uncertainty among retired people in the age group of 60-75. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: People in the age group of 60-75 who work have a greater potential for successful aging due to the higher value of the components of tolerance to uncertainty and their connection to personality traits on which mental well-being depends. The increase in the level of mental well-being of retired people of late adulthood can be achieved through influencing the uncertainty factor: either by employing these people or by actively involving them in communication in social networks.


Assuntos
Transtornos Mentais , Adulto , Idoso , Comunicação , Emprego , Humanos , Saúde Mental , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Incerteza
14.
Wiad Lek ; 75(8 pt 1): 1914-1919, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36089879

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The aim: The paper aims to examine the relationship between uncertainty and plans for the future in traumatic situations such as war, as well as the role of the Eastern philosophy and its practical implications in managing uncertainty. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and methods: The authors used integrative anthropological approach, interpretive research paradigm, hermeneutical approach along with narrative approach. The data collection was carried out using PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar databases. Research papers were identified according to search terms "uncertainty", "mental health", "health", "refugee", "anxiety", "depression", "war", "future", "Eastern philosophy", "mindfulness". CONCLUSION: Conclusions: Bearing a set of negative beliefs about uncertainty and reacting negatively to uncertain and unpredictable situations, individuals fall into a vicious cycle of uncertainty fueled by their fear of uncertainty. Uncertainty takes us to the future that seems threatening or returns us to the world of primordial chaos. In both cases, we are not in the present moment, "here and now". As far as we have no control over the past and future, we feel helpless and experience fear, anxiety, depression. Returning to the present gives us back control over the situation. By expanding the range of possible visions of the future, we stop focusing on the worst-case scenario. By accepting the situation and realizing what is subject to our control and what is not, we learn to comfort uncertainty by elaborating possible futures taking into account both our desires and the current situation. Our thoughts and actions today determine our tomorrow. We cannot overcome uncertainty since it is ontologically predetermined. But we can manage our responses to uncertainty turning to the Eastern philosophy thereby maintaining our mental and physical health and expanding the functional field of human capabilities to achieve freedom and self-realization.


Assuntos
Ansiedade , Medo , Transtornos de Ansiedade , Humanos , Filosofia , Incerteza
15.
Artif Intell Med ; 131: 102347, 2022 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36100344

RESUMO

We propose a method to search rare cardiovascular disease symptom rules from historical health examination records according to its hazard ratio utility and further detect the disease given new medical record data. Further, we aim to assist both medical experts and patients by alerting the current symptoms and preparing the early treatments. In general, the proposed method first deals with the uncertainty of age and other continuous features using a fuzzy set. Next, we define the hazard ratio utility of each item set to assist the mining process. Based on the utility, we discover the rare cardiovascular disease patterns employing High Utility Rare Itemset Mining. At last, we add a prediction step to check the given health record data whether diagnosed cardiovascular. Subsequently, we can obtain rare symptoms of cardiovascular disease, which are later applied to detect the new related record data. The rare symptoms that are confirmed by their utility risk for cardiovascular disease can assist the medical experts' decision better than the common symptoms as it is often hard to be recognized at a glance. The proposed method evaluated on a public cardiovascular dataset. The experimental results showed that the generated rare cardiovascular disease patterns successfully applied to detect the cardiovascular given the symptoms data.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Algoritmos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Mineração de Dados , Humanos , Incerteza
16.
Metas enferm ; 25(7): 33-35, Septiembre 2022. ilus
Artigo em Espanhol | IBECS | ID: ibc-VR-253

RESUMO

La salud mental hace referencia al bienestar cognitivo, conductual y emocional. Se trata de cómo piensan, sienten y se comportan las personas. La pandemia que estamos viviendo en todo el mundo ha afectado a la salud mental por el miedo, la incertidumbre, el aislamiento social o la soledad que se ha vivido, pero antes de esta emergencia sanitaria, la salud mental ya era un problema y en muchas ocasiones un tema incómodo, abandonado y escondido. Por todo ello, las enfermeras de esta especialidad se hacen más necesarias que nunca, una figura que lucha por evitar que sea invisible y desconocida.(AU)


Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Saúde Mental , Emoções , Pandemias , Isolamento Social , Incerteza , Papel do Profissional de Enfermagem , Prisões , Prisioneiros/psicologia , Solidão , Enfermeiras Especialistas , Espanha
17.
JAMA Netw Open ; 5(9): e2229521, 2022 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36048444

RESUMO

Importance: Inappropriate variations in clinical practice are a known cause of poor quality and safety, with variations often associated with nonclinical factors, such as individual differences in cognitive processing. The differential response of physicians to uncertainty may explain some of the variations in resource use and patient experience. Objective: To examine the association of physician tolerance for uncertainty with variations in resource use and patient experience. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study linked physician survey data (May to June 2019), patient experience survey data (January 2016 to December 2019), and billing data (January 2019 to December 2019) among primary care physicians (PCPs) at Massachusetts General Hospital with at least 10 visits in 2019. The statistical analysis was performed in 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The analysis examined associations of PCP tolerance for uncertainty with the tendency to order diagnostic tests, the frequency of outpatient visits, hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and patient experience data (focused on physician communication and overall rating). A 2-stage hierarchical framework was used to account for clustering of patients under PCPs. Binary outcomes were modeled using a hierarchical logistic model, and count outcomes were modeled using hierarchical Poisson or negative binomial models. The analysis was adjusted for patient demographic variables (age, sex, and race and ethnicity), socioeconomic factors (payer and neighborhood income), and clinical comorbidities. Results: Of 217 included physicians, 137 (63.1%) were women, and 174 (80.2%) were adult PCPs. A total of 62 physicians (28.6%) reported low tolerance, 59 (27.2%) reported medium tolerance, and 96 (44.2%) reported high tolerance for uncertainty. Physicians with a low tolerance for uncertainty were less likely to order complete blood cell counts (odds ratio [OR], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.50-0.88), thyroid tests (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.88), a basic metabolic profile (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.60-1.00), and liver function tests (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.53-0.99) than physicians with a high tolerance for uncertainty. Physicians who reported higher tolerance for uncertainty were more likely to receive higher patient experience scores for listening to patients carefully (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.50-0.83) and higher overall ratings (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.66-0.98) than physicians with medium tolerance. Conversely, no association was found between physician tolerance for uncertainty and patient outpatient visits, hospital admissions, or emergency department visits. Conclusions and Relevance: In clinical practice, identifying and effectively managing inappropriate variations and improving patient experience have proven to be difficult, despite increased attention to these issues. This study supports the hypothesis that physicians' tolerance for uncertainty is associated with differences in resource use and patient experience. Whether enhancing physicians' tolerance for uncertainty could help reduce unwarranted practice variations, improve quality and patient safety, and improve patient's experience remains to be established.


Assuntos
Médicos de Atenção Primária , Adulto , Feminino , Hospitalização , Humanos , Masculino , Avaliação de Resultados da Assistência ao Paciente , Autorrelato , Incerteza
18.
Comput Intell Neurosci ; 2022: 7937355, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36093494

RESUMO

The increasingly rampant telecom network fraud crime will cause serious harm to people's property safety. The way to reduce telecom fraud has shifted from passive combat to active prevention. This paper proposes a victim analysis and prediction method based on Bayesian network (BN), which models victims from age, gender, occupation, marriage, knowledge level, etc. We describe the fraud process in terms of whether to report to the police, property loss, and realizing the reasoning of the whole process of telecom fraud. This paper uses expert experience to obtain a Bayesian network structure. 533 real telecom fraud cases are used to learn Bayesian network parameters. The model is capable of quantifying uncertainty and dealing with nonlinear complex relationships among multiple factors, analyzing the factors most sensitive to property damage. According to the characteristics of victims, we conduct situational reasoning in the Bayesian network to evaluate property damage and alarm situations in different scenarios and provide decision support for police and community prevention and control. The experimental results show that male staff in government agencies are the most vulnerable to shopping fraud and women in schools are the most vulnerable to phishing and virus fraud and have the greatest property loss after being deceived; victim characteristics have very limited influence on whether to report to the police.


Assuntos
Fraude , Rede Social , Teorema de Bayes , Feminino , Fraude/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Masculino , Incerteza
19.
J Environ Public Health ; 2022: 1088046, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36111066

RESUMO

The uncertainty of judicial decision-making has a deep and extensive theoretical foundation. Theoretical analysis starts with a reflection on legal rationalism that challenges the legal certainty before delving deeply into the case's facts and the entire legal system. In light of this, this paper explores a novel approach to enhance the reasoning mechanism of trial documents from the viewpoint of modern cognitive psychology, concentrating on the parties' and the public's cognitive processes to justice. It is suggested to use an inert hierarchical multilabel classification algorithm. In order to predict the category of invisible examples, the extended multilabel training set is first searched for adjacent samples of invisible examples, and the classification weight and confidence of each category are then determined in accordance with these adjacent samples. The group of invisible examples is then anticipated. Experimental comparison demonstrates that this algorithm outperforms other prediction techniques; the macro accuracy, macro recall, and macro F1 of this method are, respectively, 0.896, 0.871, and 0.814. It has some advantages in many multilabel evaluation indexes when compared to other multilabel algorithms.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Psicologia Cognitiva , Incerteza
20.
Front Public Health ; 10: 854771, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36111195

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected various dimensions of the economies and societies. At this juncture, this paper examines the effects of pandemics-related uncertainty on fertility in the panel dataset of 126 countries from 1996 to 2019. For this purpose, the World Pandemics Uncertainty Indices are used to measure the pandemics-related uncertainty. The novel empirical evidence is that pandemics-related uncertainty decreases fertility rates. These results are robust to estimate different models and include various controls. We also try to explain why the rise in uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the fertility decline.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Coeficiente de Natalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Fertilidade , Humanos , Incerteza
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