Geographical characteristics and influencing factors of the influenza epidemic in Hubei, China, from 2009 to 2019.

Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease that commonly affects people and has an important impact on public health. Based on influenza incidence data from 103 counties in Hubei Province from 2009 to 2019, this study used time series analysis and geospatial analysis to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the influenza epidemic and its influencing factors. The results reveal significant spatial-temporal clustering of the influenza epidemic in Hubei Province. Influenza mainly occurs in winter and spring of each year (from December to March of the next year), with the highest incidence rate observed in 2019 and an overall upward trend in recent years. There were significant spatial and urban-rural differences in influenza prevalence in Hubei Province, with the eastern region being more seriously affected than the central and western regions, and the urban regions more seriously affected than the rural region. Hubei's influenza epidemic showed an obvious spatial agglomeration distribution from 2009 to 2019, with the strongest clustering in winter. The hot spot areas of interannual variation in influenza were mainly distributed in eastern and western Hubei, and the cold spot areas were distributed in north-central Hubei. In addition, the cold hot spot areas of influenza epidemics varied from season to season. The seasonal changes in influenza prevalence in Hubei Province are mainly governed by meteorological factors, such as temperature, sunshine, precipitation, humidity, and wind speed. Low temperature, less rain, less sunshine, low wind speed and humid weather will increase the risk of contracting influenza; the interannual changes and spatial differentiation of influenza are mainly influenced by socioeconomic factors, such as road density, number of health technicians per 1,000 population, urbanization rate and population density. The strength of influenza's influencing factors in Hubei Province exhibits significant spatial variation, but in general, the formation of spatial variation of influenza in Hubei Province is still the result of the joint action of socioeconomic factors and natural meteorological factors. Understanding the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of influenza in Hubei Province and its influencing factors can provide a reasonable decision-making basis for influenza prevention and control and public health development in Hubei Province and can also effectively improve the scientific understanding of the public with respect to influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases to reduce the influenza incidence, which also has reference significance for the prevention and control of influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases in other countries or regions.

Epidemiology of influenza over a ten-year period in Belgium: overview of the historical and current evidence.

BACKGROUND: Generally influenza, a contagious respiratory disease, leads to mild illness, but can present as a severe illness with significant complications for some. It entails significant health challenges and an economic burden. Annual vaccination is considered the most effective preventive measure against influenza, especially in high-risk groups. METHOD: Epidemiological, demographic and vaccination data of influenza from 2009-to-2019 is collected from Sciensano, the Belgian Institute for Health. Sciensano monitors influenza virus through two surveillances: the Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) surveillance in primary care and the Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) surveillance in hospital settings. RESULTS: 49.6% [± 8.5] of all ILI-samples tested positive in this period. Influenza A was the dominant circulating type, accounting for 73.7% [± 27.5] of positive samples, while influenza B accounted for 24.3% [± 26.7]. For SARI-surveillance, the average rate of samples tested positive was 36.3% [± 9.3]. Influenza A was responsible for respectively 77.7% [± 23.8] of positive samples and influenza B for 22.2% [± 23.7]. Since 2010, epidemics typically lasted about 9.3 weeks [± 2.7]. From 2012 to 2019 the average vaccine effectiveness was 34.9% [± 15.3]. CONCLUSION: Influenza is quickly considered a trivial disease, but can have substantial repercussions. It remains difficult to identify the level of treat of influenza due to antigenic evolution. Measures to prevent, control and treat are needed. Vaccines that provide broader and more durable protection that can be produced more rapidly could be a potential solution.

Real-world data analysis of post-COVID-19 condition risk in older patients.

This study investigated the risk of post-COVID-19 conditions in older patients with COVID-19 compared to those with influenza, and how age impacts this relationship. Patients aged ≥65 years with COVID-19 or influenza were identified using the TriNetX network. The risk of post-COVID-19 conditions was compared between survivors of COVID-19 and influenza, followed by a comparison of post-COVID-19 conditions risk between patients aged 65-74 years and those aged over 75 years. Compared with influenza survivors, post-COVID-19 conditions were significantly more prevalent in patients with COVID-19 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.534; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.405-1.675). Specifically, COVID-19 survivors have a significantly higher risk of experiencing abnormal breathing (HR, 2.052; 95% CI: 1.757-2.397), fatigue (HR, 1.587; 95% CI: 1.322-1.905), anxiety/depression (HR, 1.587; 95% CI: 1.322-1.905), cognitive symptoms (HR, 1.667; 95% CI: 1.295-2.146) and cough (HR, 1.250; 95% CI: 1.006-1.553) compared with the influenza group. Contrastingly, no significant difference was observed in the risk of any post-COVID-19 condition between COVID-19 survivors aged 65-74 years and those aged over 75 years (HR, 0.994; 95% CI: 0.920-1.073). However, a lower incidence of cognitive symptoms was observed in patients aged 65-74 years compared to those aged ≥75 years (HR, 0.543; 95% CI: 0.445-0.661). In conclusion, compared with influenza, older patients have a higher risk of developing post-COVID-19 conditions after SARS-CoV-2 infection, and those aged over ≥75 years may have an increased risk of developing cognitive symptoms compared to those aged 65-74 years.

Epidemiology of Influenza-like Illness and Respiratory Viral Etiology in Adult Patients in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, China between 2018 and 2019.

To determine the epidemiological status of influenza and understand the distribution of common respiratory viruses in adult patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) cases in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, China, epidemiological data between 2018 and 2019 were retrieved from the China Influenza Surveillance Information System, and two sentinel ILI surveillance hospitals were selected for sample collection. All specimens were screened for influenza virus (IFV) and the other 14 common respiratory viruses using real-time polymerase chain reaction. The results of the 2-year ILI surveillance showed that 26,205 (1.37%) of the 1,907,869 outpatients and emergency patients presented with ILI, with an average annual incidence of 297.75 per 100,000 individuals, and ILI cases were predominant in children <15 years (21,348 patients, 81.47%). Of the 2713 specimens collected from adult patients with ILI, the overall detection rate of respiratory viruses was 20.13%, with IFV being the most frequently detected (11.79%) and at a relatively lower rate than other respiratory viruses. Further subtype analysis indicated an alternating or mixed prevalence of H1N1 (2009), H3N2, Victoria, and Yamagata subtypes. This study provides a baseline epidemiological characterization of ILI and highlights the need for a nationwide detection and surveillance system for multiple respiratory pathogens.

Transient increased risk of influenza infection following RSV infection in South Africa: findings from the PHIRST study, South Africa, 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: Large-scale prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection may have ecological consequences for co-circulating pathogens, including influenza. We assessed if and for how long RSV infection alters the risk for subsequent influenza infection. METHODS: We analysed a prospective longitudinal cohort study conducted in South Africa between 2016 and 2018. For participating households, nasopharyngeal samples were taken twice weekly, irrespective of symptoms, across three respiratory virus seasons, and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to identify infection with RSV and/or influenza. We fitted an individual-level hidden Markov transmission model in order to estimate RSV and influenza infection rates and their interdependence. RESULTS: Of a total of 122,113 samples collected, 1265 (1.0%) were positive for influenza and 1002 (0.8%) positive for RSV, with 15 (0.01%) samples from 12 individuals positive for both influenza and RSV. We observed a 2.25-fold higher incidence of co-infection than expected if assuming infections were unrelated. We estimated that infection with influenza is 2.13 (95% CI 0.97-4.69) times more likely when already infected with, and for a week following, RSV infection, adjusted for age. This equates to 1.4% of influenza infections that may be attributable to RSV in this population. Due to the local seasonality (RSV season precedes the influenza season), we were unable to estimate changes in RSV infection risk following influenza infection. CONCLUSIONS: We find no evidence to suggest that RSV was associated with a subsequent reduced risk of influenza infection. Instead, we observed an increased risk for influenza infection for a short period after infection. However, the impact on population-level transmission dynamics of this individual-level synergistic effect was not measurable in this setting.

Surveillance of COVID-19 and influenza A(H1N1) prevalence in China via medicine-based wastewater biomarkers.

The simultaneous monitoring of individual or multiple diseases can be achieved by selecting therapeutic medicines used to treat the primary symptoms of the condition as biomarkers in wastewater. This study proposes a novel approach to monitor the prevalence of COVID-19 and influenza A (H1N1) by selecting nine medicines to serve as biomarkers, including three antipyretics, three antivirals, and three cough suppressants. To verify our approach, wastewater samples were collected from seventeen urban and five rural wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in a Chinese city over a period of one year. The use of antipyretics increased notably during the COVID-19 pandemic, while the consumption of antivirals for influenza A (H1N1) rose in the post-COVID-19 pandemic period, indicating a minor spike in the occurrence of influenza A (H1N1) after the COVID-19 pandemic. Fever is a significant symptom of COVID-19 and can serve as a reliable indicator of disease prevalence. Our research found that the prevalence of COVID-19 in urban areas was significantly higher (at 78.5 %, 95 % CI: 73.4 % - 83.9 %) than in rural areas (with a prevalence of 48.1 %, 95 % CI: 42.4 % - 53.8 %). The prevalence of COVID-19 in urban areas in this study was consistent with the data reported by the Chinese center for Disease Control and Prevention (82.4 %). Continuous monitoring of WWTPs in urban areas with fluctuating populations and complex demographics can provide early disease warning. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of evaluating community disease prevalence by selecting major therapeutic medicines as biomarkers in wastewater.

Safety and immunogenicity of influenza A(H3N2) component vaccine in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus.

INTRODUCTION: Seasonal influenza A (H3N2) virus is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the last 50 years in population that is greater than the impact of H1N1. Data assessing immunogenicity and safety of this virus component in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) is lacking in the literature. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate short-term immunogenicity and safety of influenza A/Singapore (H3N2) vaccine in JSLE. METHODS: 24 consecutive JSLE patients and 29 healthy controls (HC) were vaccinated with influenza A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016(H3N2)-like virus. Influenza A (H3N2) seroprotection (SP), seroconversion (SC), geometric mean titers (GMT), factor increase in GMT (FI-GMT) titers were assessed before and 4 weeks post-vaccination. Disease activity, therapies and adverse events (AE) were also evaluated. RESULTS: JSLE patients and controls were comparable in current age [14.5 (10.1-18.3) vs. 14 (9-18.4) years, p = 0.448] and female sex [21 (87.5%) vs. 19 (65.5%), p = 0.108]. Before vaccination, JSLE and HC had comparable SP rates [22 (91.7%) vs. 25 (86.2%), p = 0.678] and GMT titers [102.3 (95% CI 75.0-139.4) vs. 109.6 (95% CI 68.2-176.2), p = 0.231]. At D30, JSLE and HC had similar immune response, since no differences were observed in SP [24 (100%) vs. 28 (96.6%), p = 1.000)], SC [4 (16.7%) vs. 9 (31.0%), p = 0.338), GMT [162.3 (132.9-198.3) vs. 208.1 (150.5-287.8), p = 0.143] and factor increase in GMT [1.6 (1.2-2.1) vs. 1.9 (1.4-2.5), p = 0.574]. SLEDAI-2K scores [2 (0-17) vs. 2 (0-17), p = 0.765] and therapies remained stable throughout the study. Further analysis of possible factors influencing vaccine immune response among JSLE patients demonstrated similar GMT between patients with SLEDAI < 4 compared to SLEDAI ≥ 4 (p = 0.713), as well as between patients with and without current use of prednisone (p = 0.420), azathioprine (p = 1.0), mycophenolate mofetil (p = 0.185), and methotrexate (p = 0.095). No serious AE were reported in both groups and most of them were asymptomatic (58.3% vs. 44.8%, p = 0.958). Local and systemic AE were alike in both groups (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: This is the first study that identified adequate immune protection against H3N2-influenza strain with additional vaccine-induced increment of immune response and an adequate safety profile in JSLE. ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov , NCT03540823).

Temporal and Emotional Variations in People's Perceptions of Mass Epidemic Infectious Disease After the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Influenza A as an Example: Topic Modeling and Sentiment Analysis Based on Weibo Data.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound impacts on society, including public health, the economy, daily life, and social interactions. Social distancing measures, travel restrictions, and the influx of pandemic-related information on social media have all led to a significant shift in how individuals perceive and respond to health crises. In this context, there is a growing awareness of the role that social media platforms such as Weibo, among the largest and most influential social media sites in China, play in shaping public sentiment and influencing people's behavior during public health emergencies. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to gain a comprehensive understanding of the sociospatial impact of mass epidemic infectious disease by analyzing the spatiotemporal variations and emotional orientations of the public after the COVID-19 pandemic. We use the outbreak of influenza A after the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study. Through temporal and spatial analyses, we aim to uncover specific variations in the attention and emotional orientations of people living in different provinces in China regarding influenza A. We sought to understand the societal impact of large-scale infectious diseases and the public's stance after the COVID-19 pandemic to improve public health policies and communication strategies. METHODS: We selected Weibo as the data source and collected all influenza A-related Weibo posts from November 1, 2022, to March 31, 2023. These data included user names, geographic locations, posting times, content, repost counts, comments, likes, user types, and more. Subsequently, we used latent Dirichlet allocation topic modeling to analyze the public's focus as well as the bidirectional long short-term memory model to conduct emotional analysis. We further classified the focus areas and emotional orientations of different regions. RESULTS: The research findings indicate that, compared with China's western provinces, the eastern provinces exhibited a higher volume of Weibo posts, demonstrating a greater interest in influenza A. Moreover, inland provinces displayed elevated levels of concern compared with coastal regions. In addition, female users of Weibo exhibited a higher level of engagement than male users, with regular users comprising the majority of user types. The public's focus was categorized into 23 main themes, with the overall emotional sentiment predominantly leaning toward negativity (making up 7562 out of 9111 [83%] sentiments). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study underscore the profound societal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. People tend to be pessimistic toward new large-scale infectious diseases, and disparities exist in the levels of concern and emotional sentiments across different regions. This reflects diverse societal responses to health crises. By gaining an in-depth understanding of the public's attitudes and focal points regarding these infectious diseases, governments and decision makers can better formulate policies and action plans to cater to the specific needs of different regions and enhance public health awareness.

End of season 2022/2023 quadrivalent influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing influenza in primary care in Portugal.

Using a test-negative case-control design, we aim to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended laboratory-confirmed influenza in Portugal in 2022/2023 season. Between week 41/2022 and week 14/2023, data on 592 patients with influenza-like illness aged 18 or more years old were collected by the national sentinel influenza surveillance system in primary care settings. Of those, 218 were positive for influenza and 374 were negative controls. We estimated seasonal influenza VE as (1-odds ratio)*100% of being vaccinated in laboratory-confirmed influenza cases vs. negative controls using logistic regression model adjusted for age group, sex, presence of chronic conditions, and month of symptoms onset. The seasonal VE was 59.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.3 to 77.3) against any laboratory-confirmed influenza and not statistically significant 44.5% (95% CI: -5.6 to 70.8) against influenza A (H3N2). In the 2022/2023 season, characterized by early and low influenza activity and predominant A (H3N2) circulation, vaccination provided a moderate protection against medically attended laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care.

A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics.

INTRODUCTION: It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics is less well understood. In this study, we aimed to characterise the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. METHODS: We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodic signals in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodic signals to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models. RESULTS: During 10 years of community surveillance, 66 799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected, 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI 8.8% to 9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC=183) compared with all annual covariates (ΔAIC=263) in lognormal regression. Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent over time or across influenza (sub)types. The explanatory power of climate factors for ILI and influenza virus trends was weak. CONCLUSION: Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers, with influenza dynamics showing near-annual periodicities. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.

Epidemiological characteristics of seven notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in the mainland of China: an analysis of national surveillance data from 2017 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) remain a pressing public health concern, posing a significant threat to the well-being and lives of individuals. This study delves into the incidence of seven primary RIDs during the period 2017-2021, aiming to gain deeper insights into their epidemiological characteristics for the purpose of enhancing control and prevention strategies. METHODS: Data pertaining to seven notifiable RIDs, namely, seasonal influenza, pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), mumps, scarlet fever, pertussis, rubella and measles, in the mainland of China between 2017 and 2021 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS). Joinpoint regression software was utilized to analyze temporal trends, while SaTScan software with a Poisson probability model was used to assess seasonal and spatial patterns. RESULTS: A total of 11,963,886 cases of the seven RIDs were reported during 2017-2021, and yielding a five-year average incidence rate of 170.73 per 100,000 individuals. Among these RIDs, seasonal influenza exhibited the highest average incidence rate (94.14 per 100,000), followed by PTB (55.52 per 100,000), mumps (15.16 per 100,000), scarlet fever (4.02 per 100,000), pertussis (1.10 per 100,000), rubella (0.59 per 100,000), and measles (0.21 per 100,000). Males experienced higher incidence rates across all seven RIDs. PTB incidence was notably elevated among farmers and individuals aged over 65, whereas the other RIDs primarily affected children and students under 15 years of age. The incidences of PTB and measles exhibited a declining trend from 2017 to 2021 (APC = -7.53%, P = 0.009; APC = -40.87%, P = 0.02), while the other five RIDs peaked in 2019. Concerning seasonal and spatial distribution, the seven RIDs displayed distinct characteristics, with variations observed for the same RIDs across different regions. The proportion of laboratory-confirmed cases fluctuated among the seven RIDs from 2017 to 2021, with measles and rubella exhibiting higher proportions and mumps and scarlet fever showing lower proportions. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of PTB and measles demonstrated a decrease in the mainland of China between 2017 and 2021, while the remaining five RIDs reached a peak in 2019. Overall, RIDs continue to pose a significant public health challenge. Urgent action is required to bolster capacity-building efforts and enhance control and prevention strategies for RIDs, taking into account regional disparities and epidemiological nuances. With the rapid advancement of high-tech solutions, the development and effective implementation of a digital/intelligent RIDs control and prevention system are imperative to facilitate precise surveillance, early warnings, and swift responses.

Circulation of influenza and other respiratory viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia and New Zealand, 2020-2021.

Objective: Circulation patterns of influenza and other respiratory viruses have been globally disrupted since the emergence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the introduction of public health and social measures (PHSMs) aimed at reducing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Methods: We reviewed respiratory virus laboratory data, Google mobility data and PHSMs in five geographically diverse regions in Australia and New Zealand. We also described respiratory virus activity from January 2017 to August 2021. Results: We observed a change in the prevalence of circulating respiratory viruses following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in early 2020. Influenza activity levels were very low in all regions, lower than those recorded in 2017-2019, with less than 1% of laboratory samples testing positive for influenza virus. In contrast, rates of human rhinovirus infection were increased. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity was delayed; however, once it returned, most regions experienced activity levels well above those seen in 2017-2019. The timing of the resurgence in the circulation of both rhinovirus and RSV differed within and between the two countries. Discussion: The findings of this study suggest that as domestic and international borders are opened up and other COVID-19 PHSMs are lifted, clinicians and public health professionals should be prepared for resurgences in influenza and other respiratory viruses. Recent patterns in RSV activity suggest that these resurgences in non-COVID-19 viruses have the potential to occur out of season and with increased impact.

Impact of the surge of COVID-19 Omicron outbreak on the intention of seasonal influenza vaccination in Hong Kong: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the intention of influenza vaccination during the Omicron pandemic of COVID-19 via a structured cross-sectional survey. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in 1,813 Hong Kong quota-sampled adults between March and September 2022, when Hong Kong was experiencing an outbreak of Omicron infections. Questions included self-reported medical and vaccination history, and perceptions and intention of influenza vaccine. A multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify significant factors associated with the vaccination intention. RESULTS: Of the 1,813 participants, 25.8% (95% CI: 23.8%-27.8%) perceived positive impact of COVID-19 pandemic on their influenza vaccine willingness, which was more than two times the proportion of those who feel less likely to take influenza vaccine (11.5%, 95% CI: 10.1%-13.1%). Compared with males, females were less likely to receive influenza vaccine for 2022-23 influenza seasons (OR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.52-0.95, p = 0.023) and had less impact on their influenza vaccine willingness (OR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.59-0.99, p = 0.043). Participants older than 60 years old were related to a less positive impact compared with the youngers (OR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.30-0.93, p = 0.028). Participants with experience of influenza vaccine uptake also showed a higher intention of seasonal influenza vaccination. CONCLUSION: The public intention of influenza vaccine has been raised in Hong Kong. With the identified subgroups (e.g., female and elderly) and reasons for being reluctant to the influenza vaccination, policy makers should rectify common misperceptions in order to increase influenza vaccination coverage at the post COVID-19 phase.