Machine learning forecasts for seasonal epidemic peaks: Lessons learnt from an atypical respiratory syncytial virus season.

Seasonal peaks in infectious disease incidence put pressures on health services. Therefore, early warning of the timing and magnitude of peak activity during seasonal epidemics can provide information for public health practitioners to take appropriate action. Whilst many infectious diseases have predictable seasonality, newly emerging diseases and the impact of public health interventions can result in unprecedented seasonal activity. We propose a Machine Learning process for generating short-term forecasts, where models are selected based on their ability to correctly forecast peaks in activity, and can be useful during atypical seasons. We have validated our forecasts using typical and atypical seasonal activity, using respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity during 2019-2021 as an example. During the winter of 2020/21 the usual winter peak in RSV activity in England did not occur but was 'deferred' until the Spring of 2021. We compare a range of Machine Learning regression models, with alternate models including different independent variables, e.g. with or without seasonality or trend variables. We show that the best-fitting model which minimises daily forecast errors is not the best model for forecasting peaks when the selection criterion is based on peak timing and magnitude. Furthermore, we show that best-fitting models for typical seasons contain different variables to those for atypical seasons. Specifically, including seasonality in models improves performance during typical seasons but worsens it for the atypical seasons.

Centering Public Perceptions on Translating AI Into Clinical Practice: Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement Consultation Focus Group Study.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely considered to be the new technical advancement capable of a large-scale modernization of health care. Considering AI's potential impact on the clinician-patient relationship, health care provision, and health care systems more widely, patients and the wider public should be a part of the development, implementation, and embedding of AI applications in health care. Failing to establish patient and public engagement and involvement (PPIE) can limit AI's impact. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to (1) understand patients' and the public's perceived benefits and challenges for AI and (2) clarify how to best conduct PPIE in projects on translating AI into clinical practice, given public perceptions of AI. METHODS: We conducted this qualitative PPIE focus-group consultation in the United Kingdom. A total of 17 public collaborators representing 7 National Institute of Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaborations across England participated in 1 of 3 web-based semistructured focus group discussions. We explored public collaborators' understandings, experiences, and perceptions of AI applications in health care. Transcripts were coanalyzed iteratively with 2 public coauthors using thematic analysis. RESULTS: We identified 3 primary deductive themes with 7 corresponding inductive subthemes. Primary theme 1, advantages of implementing AI in health care, had 2 subthemes: system improvements and improve quality of patient care and shared decision-making. Primary theme 2, challenges of implementing AI in health care, had 3 subthemes: challenges with security, bias, and access; public misunderstanding of AI; and lack of human touch in care and decision-making. Primary theme 3, recommendations on PPIE for AI in health care, had 2 subthemes: experience, empowerment, and raising awareness; and acknowledging and supporting diversity in PPIE. CONCLUSIONS: Patients and the public can bring unique perspectives on the development, implementation, and embedding of AI in health care. Early PPIE is therefore crucial not only to safeguard patients but also to increase the chances of acceptance of AI by the public and the impact AI can make in terms of outcomes.

Evaluating the use of social contact data to produce age-specific short-term forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in England.

Mathematical and statistical models can be used to make predictions of how epidemics may progress in the near future and form a central part of outbreak mitigation and control. Renewal equation based models allow inference of epidemiological parameters from historical data and forecast future epidemic dynamics without requiring complex mechanistic assumptions. However, these models typically ignore interaction between age groups, partly due to challenges in parameterising a time varying interaction matrix. Social contact data collected regularly during the COVID-19 epidemic provide a means to inform interaction between age groups in real-time. We developed an age-specific forecasting framework and applied it to two age-stratified time-series: incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, estimated from a national infection and antibody prevalence survey; and, reported cases according to the UK national COVID-19 dashboard. Jointly fitting our model to social contact data from the CoMix study, we inferred a time-varying next generation matrix which we used to project infections and cases in the four weeks following each of 29 forecast dates between October 2020 and November 2021. We evaluated the forecasts using proper scoring rules and compared performance with three other models with alternative data and specifications alongside two naive baseline models. Overall, incorporating age interaction improved forecasts of infections and the CoMix-data-informed model was the best performing model at time horizons between two and four weeks. However, this was not true when forecasting cases. We found that age group interaction was most important for predicting cases in children and older adults. The contact-data-informed models performed best during the winter months of 2020-2021, but performed comparatively poorly in other periods. We highlight challenges regarding the incorporation of contact data in forecasting and offer proposals as to how to extend and adapt our approach, which may lead to more successful forecasts in future.

Association between ethnic background and COVID-19 morbidity, mortality and vaccination in England: a multistate cohort analysis using the UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVES: Despite growing evidence suggesting increased COVID-19 mortality among people from ethnic minorities, little is known about milder forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We sought to explore the association between ethnic background and the probability of testing, testing positive, hospitalisation, COVID-19 mortality and vaccination uptake. DESIGN: A multistate cohort analysis. Participants were followed between 8 April 2020 and 30 September 2021. SETTING: The UK Biobank, which stores medical data on around half a million people who were recruited between 2006 and 2010. PARTICIPANTS: 405 541 subjects were eligible for analysis, limited to UK Biobank participants living in England. 23 891 (6%) of participants were non-white. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The associations between ethnic background and testing, testing positive, hospitalisation and COVID-19 mortality were studied using multistate survival analyses. The association with single and double-dose vaccination was also modelled. Multistate models adjusted for age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation were fitted to estimate adjusted HRs (aHR) for each of the multistate transitions. RESULTS: 18 172 (4.5%) individuals tested positive, 3285 (0.8%) tested negative and then positive, 1490 (6.9% of those tested positive) were hospitalised, and 129 (0.6%) tested positive at the moment of hospital admission (ie, direct hospitalisation). Finally, 662 (17.4%) died after admission. Compared with white participants, Asian participants had an increased risk of negative to positive transition (aHR 1.24 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.52)), testing positive (95% CI 1.44 (1.33 to 1.55)) and direct hospitalisation (1.61 (95% CI 1.28 to 2.03)). Black participants had an increased risk of hospitalisation following a positive test (1.71 (95% CI 1.29 to 2.27)) and direct hospitalisation (1.90 (95% CI 1.51 to 2.39)). Although not the case for Asians (aHR 1.00 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.02)), black participants had a reduced vaccination probability (0.63 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.65)). In contrast, Chinese participants had a reduced risk of testing negative (aHR 0.64 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.73)), of testing positive (0.40 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.57)) and of vaccination (0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83)). CONCLUSIONS: We identified inequities in testing, vaccination and COVID-19 outcomes according to ethnicity in England. Compared with whites, Asian participants had increased risks of infection and admission, and black participants had almost double hospitalisation risk, and a 40% lower vaccine uptake.

'I can see what's going on without being nosey ': What matters to people living with dementia about home as revealed through visual home tours.

OBJECTIVES: This paper considers home from the perspective of people living with dementia supporting ongoing discourse around ageing in place and the significance of creating more inclusive communities. METHODS: Forty-six home tour interviews led by people living with dementia were conducted in England and Scotland to better understand the connectivity between home and neighbourhood for people living with dementia. These interviews used a range of participatory and creative approaches including video, photographic images and in situ interviews. Data were analysed via reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Three themes were identified in data analysis. 1. Connected home and neighbourhood, where participants revealed the dynamic relationship between home and neighbourhood; 2. Practices of home, where participants discussed the everyday nature of their homes and routines; and 3. Displaying home and family, which reflected participant's biographical homes in the context of living with dementia. DISCUSSION: The findings show that home holds multiple meanings for people living with dementia. For example, home is understood as a part of the neighbourhood and an extension of the home space into gardens and backyards, thus extending existing discourses that solely focus on the inside of people's homes. For people living with dementia, homes are also sites of negotiation and renegotiation where new meanings are created to reflect the changing nature and context of the home. There is not one fixed solution to these issues. Support and understanding for people living with dementia will need to evolve to adapt to the shifting dynamics and multiple meanings of home.

Young people's opinions of cancer care in England: the BRIGHTLIGHT cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The BRIGHTLIGHT cohort study was the national evaluation of cancer services for teenager and young adults (TYA). This was analysis of free-text survey data to better understand their experiences of cancer care. DESIGN: Cohort study SETTING: National Health Service hospitals delivering cancer care in England PARTICIPANTS: 830 young people newly diagnosed with cancer. INTERVENTIONS: Exposure to specialist care in the first 6 months after diagnosis defined as care in a TYA Principal Treatment Centre (PTC). This was categorised as follows: all care in a TYA-PTC (ALL-TYA-PTC), no care in a TYA-PTC (NO-TYA-PTC) so care delivered in a children/adult unit only and some care in a TYA-PTC with additional care in a children's/adult unit (SOME-TYA-PTC). PRIMARY OUTCOME: Data were collected through the BRIGHTLIGHT survey included free-text questions which asked patients 'what was the best aspects of their experiences of care' and 'what aspects could be improved'. These comments were analysed using content analysis. Themes were compared between categories of care, then ranked in order of frequency, ranging from the most endorsed to the least. RESULTS: Overall, young people were most positive about their healthcare team, while the area highlighted for improvement was diagnostic experience. Differences between the three groups suggested those who had some or all treatment in a TYA-PTC valued the place of care. Regardless of where TYA were treated their healthcare teams were favourably viewed. Age appropriate place of care was highlighted to be of value for those in PTCs. CONCLUSIONS: These data show the value young people placed on the care they received in TYA specific wards. Young people who accessed some or all of their care in a TYA-PTC highly endorsed their place of care as one of the best elements of their care, and it is further emphasised by those who had shared care who experienced difficulty with lack of age-appropriate care when treated outside the TYA-PTC.

Survival and critical care use among people with dementia in a large English cohort.

BACKGROUND: Admitting people with dementia to critical care units may not always lead to a clear survival benefit. Critical care admissions of people with dementia vary across countries. Little is known about the use and trends of critical care admissions of people with dementia in England. OBJECTIVE: To investigate critical care use and survival among people with dementia in a large London catchment area. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using data from dementia assessment services in south London, UK (2007-20) linked with national hospitalisation data to ascertain critical care admissions. Outcomes included age-sex-standardised critical care use and 1-year post-critical care admission survival by dementia severity (binary: mild versus moderate/severe). We used logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier survival plots for investigating 1-year survival following a critical care admission and linear regressions for time trends. RESULTS: Of 19,787 people diagnosed with dementia, 726 (3.7%) had ≥1 critical care admission at any time after receiving their dementia diagnosis. The overall 1-year survival of people with dementia, who had a CCA, was 47.5% (n = 345). Dementia severity was not associated with 1-year survival following a critical care admission (mild dementia versus moderate-severe dementia odds of 1-year mortality OR: 0.90, 95% CI [0.66-1.22]). Over the 12-year period from 2008 to 2019, overall critical care use decreased (ß = -0.05; 95% CI = -0.01, -0.0003; P = 0.03), while critical care admissions occurring during the last year of life increased (ß = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.01, 0.20, P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, while critical care use among people with dementia declined overall, its use increased among those in their last year of life. Survival remains comparable to that observed in general older populations.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the treatment of common infections in primary care and the change to antibiotic prescribing in England.

BACKGROUND: There is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic altered the management of common infections in primary care. This study aimed to evaluate infection-coded consultation rates and antibiotic use during the pandemic and how any change may have affected clinical outcomes. METHODS: With the approval of NHS England, a retrospective cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform analysed routinely collected electronic health data from GP practices in England between January 2019 and December 2021. Infection coded consultations and antibiotic prescriptions were used estimate multiple measures over calendar months, including age-sex adjusted prescribing rates, prescribing by infection and antibiotic type, infection consultation rates, coding quality and rate of same-day antibiotic prescribing for COVID-19 infections. Interrupted time series (ITS) estimated the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on infection-coded consultation rates. The impact of the pandemic on non- COVID-19 infection-related hospitalisations was also estimated. RESULTS: Records from 24 million patients were included. The rate of infection-related consultations fell for all infections (mean reduction of 39% in 2020 compared to 2019 mean rate), except for UTI which remained stable. Modelling infection-related consultation rates highlighted this with an incidence rate ratio of 0.44 (95% CI 0.36-0.53) for incident consultations and 0.43 (95% CI 0.33-0.54) for prevalent consultations. Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) saw the largest reduction of 0.11 (95% CI 0.07-0.17). Antibiotic prescribing rates fell with a mean reduction of 118.4 items per 1000 patients in 2020, returning to pre-pandemic rates by summer 2021. Prescribing for LRTI decreased 20% and URTI increased 15.9%. Over 60% of antibiotics were issued without an associated same-day infection code, which increased during the pandemic. Infection-related hospitalisations reduced (by 62%), with the largest reduction observed for pneumonia infections (72.9%). Same-day antibiotic prescribing for COVID-19 infection increased from 1 to 10.5% between the second and third national lockdowns and rose again during 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Changes to consultations and hospital admissions may be driven by reduced transmission of non-COVID-19 infections due to reduced social mixing and lockdowns. Inconsistencies in coding practice emphasises the need for improvement to inform new antibiotic stewardship policies and prevent resistance to novel infections.

Increasing access to CBT for psychosis patients: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial evaluating brief, targeted CBT for distressing voices delivered by assistant psychologists (GiVE3).

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends that cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) is offered to all patients with a psychosis diagnosis. However, only a minority of psychosis patients in England and Wales are offered CBT. This is attributable, in part, to the resource-intensive nature of CBT. One response to this problem has been the development of CBT in brief formats that are targeted at a single symptom and are deliverable by briefly trained therapists. We have developed Guided self-help CBT (the GiVE intervention) as a brief form of CBT for distressing voices and reported evidence for the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) when the intervention was delivered by briefly trained therapists (assistant psychologists). This study will investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the GiVE intervention when delivered by assistant psychologists following a brief training. METHODS: This study is a pragmatic, two-arm, parallel group, superiority RCT comparing the GiVE intervention (delivered by assistant psychologists) and treatment as usual to treatment as usual alone, recruiting across three sites, using 1:1 allocation and blind post-treatment and follow-up assessments. A nested qualitative study will develop a model for implementation. DISCUSSION: If the GiVE intervention is found to be effective when delivered by assistant psychologists, this intervention could significantly contribute to increasing access to evidence-based psychological interventions for psychosis patients. Furthermore, implementation across secondary care services within the UK's National Health Service may pave the way for other symptom-specific and less resource-intensive CBT-informed interventions for psychosis patients to be developed and evaluated. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN registration number: 12748453. Registered on 28 September 2022.

Organisational and student characteristics, fidelity, funding models, and unit costs of recovery colleges in 28 countries: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Recovery colleges were developed in England to support the recovery of individuals who have mental health symptoms or mental illness. They have been founded in many countries but there has been little international research on recovery colleges and no studies investigating their staffing, fidelity, or costs. We aimed to characterise recovery colleges internationally, to understand organisational and student characteristics, fidelity, and budget. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we identified all countries in which recovery colleges exist. We repeated a cross-sectional survey done in England for recovery colleges in 28 countries. In both surveys, recovery colleges were defined as services that supported personal recovery, that were coproduced with students and staff, and where students learned collaboratively with trainers. Recovery college managers completed the survey. The survey included questions about organisational and student characteristics, fidelity to the RECOLLECT Fidelity Measure, funding models, and unit costs. Recovery colleges were grouped by country and continent and presented descriptively. We used regression models to explore continental differences in fidelity, using England as the reference group. FINDINGS: We identified 221 recovery colleges operating across 28 countries, in five continents. Overall, 174 (79%) of 221 recovery colleges participated. Most recovery colleges scored highly on fidelity. Overall scores for fidelity (ß=-2·88, 95% CI 4·44 to -1·32; p=0·0001), coproduction (odds ratio [OR] 0·10, 95% CI 0·03 to 0·33; p<0·0001), and being tailored to the student (OR 0·10, 0·02 to 0·39; p=0·0010), were lower for recovery colleges in Asia than in England. No other significant differences were identified between recovery colleges in England, and those in other continents where recovery colleges were present. 133 recovery colleges provided data on annual budgets, which ranged from €0 to €2 550 000, varying extensively within and between continents. From included data, all annual budgets reported by the college added up to €30 million, providing 19 864 courses for 55 161 students. INTERPRETATION: Recovery colleges exist in many countries. There is an international consensus on key operating principles, especially equality and a commitment to recovery, and most recovery colleges achieve moderate to high fidelity to the original model, irrespective of the income band of their country. Cultural differences need to be considered in assessing coproduction and approaches to individualising support. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Challenges and improvements associated with transitions between hospitals and care homes during the COVID-19 pandemic: a qualitative study with care home and healthcare staff in England.

BACKGROUND: Care home residents transitioning from hospital are at risk of receiving poor-quality care with their safety being challenged by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) pandemic. Little is known about how care home staff worked with hospital staff and other healthcare professionals to address these challenges and make improvements to increase patient safety. OBJECTIVE: To gain insight into how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the safety of transitions between hospital and care home. METHOD: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with care home staff and healthcare professionals involved in hospital to care home transitions including doctors, nurses, paramedics, pharmacists, social workers, and occupational therapists. Commonalities and patterns in the data were identified using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Seventy participants were interviewed. Three themes were developed, first, 'new challenges', described care homes were pressurised to receive hospital patients amidst issues with COVID-19 testing, changes to working practices and contentious media attention, which all impacted staff negatively. Second, 'dehumanisation' described how care home residents were treated, being isolated from others amounted to feelings of being imprisoned, caused fear and engendered negative reactions from families. Third, 'better ways of working' described how health and social care workers developed relationships that improved integration and confidence and benefited care provision. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to and compounded high-risk hospital-to-care home discharges. Government policy failed to support care homes. Rapid discharge objectives exposed a myriad of infection control issues causing inhumane conditions for care home residents. However, staff involved in transitions continued to provide and improve upon care provision.

Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020-2022.

Early detection of increased infections or new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for public health response. To determine whether cycle threshold (Ct) data from PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 could serve as an early indicator of epidemic growth, we analyzed daily mean Ct values in England, UK, by gene target and used iterative sequential regression to detect break points in mean Ct values (and positive test counts). To monitor the epidemic in England, we continued those analyses in real time. During September 2020-January 2022, a total of 7,611,153 positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results with Ct data were reported. Spike (S) gene target (S+/S-)-specific mean Ct values decreased 6-29 days before positive test counts increased, and S-gene Ct values provided early indication of increasing new variants (Delta and Omicron). Our approach was beneficial in the context of the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and can be used to support future infectious disease monitoring.

Implementation of BSG/ACPGBI/PHE polypectomy surveillance guidelines safely reduces the burden of surveillance in a screening cohort: a virtual model study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of British Society of Gastroenterology/Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland/Public Health England (BSG/ACPGBI/PHE) 2019 polypectomy surveillance guidelines within a national faecal immunochemical test-based bowel cancer screening (BS) cohort on surveillance activity and detection of pathology by retrospective virtual application. DESIGN: A retrospective review of BS colonoscopies performed in 2015-2016 with 5 years prospective follow-up in single institution. Index colonoscopies were selected. Incomplete colonoscopies were excluded. Histology of all resected polyps was reviewed. Surveillance intervals were calculated according to BSG/ACPGBI/PHE 2019 guidelines and compared with pre-existing 'European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening and Diagnosis' (EUQA 2013). Total number of colonoscopies deferred by virtual implementation of BSG/ACPGBI/PHE 2019 guidelines were calculated. Pathology identified on procedures that would have been deferred was reviewed. RESULTS: Total number of index BS colonoscopies performed in 2015-2016 inclusive was 890. 115 were excluded (22 no caecal intubation, 51 inadequate bowel preparation, 56 incomplete polyp clearance). N=509 colonoscopies were scheduled within a 5-year interval following index colonoscopy surveillance rounds based on EUQA guidelines. Overall, volume of surveillance was significantly reduced with retrospective application of BSG/ACPGBI/PHE 2019 guidelines (n=221, p<0.0001). No cancers were detected within the 'potentially deferred' procedures who attended for follow-up (n=330) with high-risk findings found in<10% (n=30) of colonoscopies within the BSG/ACPGBI/PHE cohort. CONCLUSION: BSG/ACPGBI/PHE 2019 guidelines safely reduce the burden of colonoscopy demand with acceptable pathology findings on deferred colonoscopies.

Bibliometric analysis of the uveitis literature and research trends over the past two decades.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the publication patterns and present a current view of the field of uveitis using a bibliometric analysis. DESIGN: Bibliometric analysis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A comprehensive search of three databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane was conducted from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2022. Search results from all three databases were subjected to analysis by Bibliometrix, an R programme that analyses large literature dataset with statistical and mathematical models. Visualisation of collaboration networks and relevance between countries was presented with VOSviewer. RESULTS: A total of 26 296 articles were included in the analysis. The field of uveitis has undergone a significant exponential growth since 2000, with an average growth rate of 4.14%. The most substantial annual growth was between the years 2021 and 2022 (36%). According to the corresponding author's countries, the three most productive countries were Turkey (3288, 12.6%), the USA (3136, 12%) and Japan (1981, 7.6%). The USA (243, 31.4%), England (117, 15%) and Germany (62, 8%) are the top three countries that contributed to clinical trials. The average international collaboration of all countries was 2.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Uveitis literature has undergone significant growth in the past two decades. The demographic factors of publishing countries lead to their various productivity and types of these uveitis studies, which is closely associated with the countries' scientific research resources and patient populations.

Benefit of prompt initiation of single-inhaler fluticasone furoate, umeclidinium, and vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) in patients with COPD in England following an exacerbation: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Triple therapy is recommended for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who remain symptomatic despite dual therapy. The optimal timing of triple therapy following an exacerbation of COPD is unknown. The outcomes of prompt (≤ 30 days) vs. delayed (31-180 days) initiation of single-inhaler triple therapy with fluticasone furoate, umeclidinium, and vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) following an exacerbation of COPD were examined. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of linked English primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and secondary (Hospital Episode Statistics) care data. Patients aged ≥ 35 years with COPD were indexed on the first and/or earliest date of exacerbation between November 15, 2017 and March 31, 2019 with subsequent FF/UMEC/VI initiation within 180 days. Patients were required to be continuously registered with a general practitioner for ≥ 12 months prior to and following index. Subsequent exacerbations, direct medical costs, and hospital readmissions were compared between prompt and delayed initiators. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to adjust for measured confounders between cohorts. RESULTS: Overall, 1599 patients were included (prompt: 393, delayed: 1206). After weighting, prompt initiators had numerically lower moderate/severe exacerbations compared with delayed initiators (rate ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76-1.01, p = 0.0587). Both all-cause and COPD-related 30-day hospital readmissions were significantly lower among patients with prompt initiation compared with delayed initiators (all-cause: 23.6% vs. 34.6%, odds ratio [95% CI]: 0.58 [0.36-0.95], p = 0.0293; COPD-related: 20.3% vs. 30.6%, odds ratio [95% CI]: 0.58 [0.35-0.96], p = 0.0347). Prompt initiators also had numerically lower all-cause total costs and significantly lower COPD-related costs per-person-per year compared with delayed initiators (COPD-related: £742 vs. £801, p = 0.0016). CONCLUSION: Prompt initiation of FF/UMEC/VI following a moderate/severe exacerbation was associated with fewer subsequent exacerbations, fewer hospital readmissions, and lower COPD-related medical costs compared with delayed initiation.

Triple therapy with an inhaled corticosteroid (ICS), a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), and a long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA) is recommended for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who still experience symptoms while taking dual therapy (LABA/LAMA or ICS/LABA). Triple therapy can be taken using single or multiple inhalers. The best time to start triple therapy for patients who may benefit from it following a short-term worsening (flare-up) of their COPD symptoms is unknown. This study assesses the effect of starting treatment with triple therapy sooner compared with later in patients with COPD.Patients who experienced a flare-up of their COPD symptoms were split into two groups ­ those who started taking triple therapy (via a single inhaler) within 30 days of their symptom flare-up and those who started taking triple therapy 31­180 days following their symptom flare-up. Over the 12 months following the initial flare-up, patients who started triple therapy earlier (within 30 days) had fewer subsequent symptom flare-ups, fewer hospital admissions, and lower healthcare costs compared with patients who started triple therapy later (31­180 days). These findings suggest that doctors should consider prescribing triple therapy (via a single inhaler) to their patients with COPD straight away if they experience a flare-up of their symptoms.

Healthcare professionals' perspectives of the management of people with palliative care needs in the emergency department of a UK hospital.

BACKGROUND: The Emergency Department (ED) is not always the optimal place for people with palliative care needs but is the most common route for treatment when urgent care is sought. The aim of this study,''REasons for PalLIative Care Admissions (REPLICA)' was to explore the perspectives of ED healthcare professionals of hospital admission or discharge via ED for palliative care patients. METHODS: This is a sequential mixed methods study comprising (i) quantitative descriptive analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) of palliative care patients (code Z51.5) who were admitted through ED in a West Midlands Hospital and for the rest of England; (ii) in-depth semi-structured interviews with 17 ED staff which were analysed using thematic content analysis. RESULTS: Over the four years (2013-2017), 430,116 people admitted through ED were identified with a Z51.5 diagnosis code, 0.6% (n = 2736) of whom were from the West Midlands Hospital. The most common reasons for palliative care patients' admission to hospitals across England were for care of chronic kidney disease, cancers and urinary tract infections. Five themes were elicited from the qualitative analysis: (1) Providing palliative care in ED is challenging, due to factors including lack of training in palliative care and the unsuitable environment. (2) Patients go to ED due to challenges in community management such as inappropriate referrals and no care plan in place. (3) Health system influences admission and discharge decisions, including bed availability and being unable to set up community services out-of-hours. (4) Discussion with patient about treatment and end of life care needs to be outside of ED whilst the patient is still well enough to express their wishes. (5) Improving services for patients with palliative care needs. Recommendations include short training sessions for ED staff and accessing palliative care professionals 24/7. CONCLUSIONS: A large number of palliative care patients visit ED and are admitted to hospital for care; there is an urgent need to prevent patients attending the hospital through the establishment of a coordinated and dedicated service to support palliative care patients in the community.

Local deprivation predicts right-wing hate crime in England.

We argue that community deprivation can increase the risk of right-wing radicalization and violent attacks and that measures of local deprivation can help improve forecasting local hate crime rates. A large body of research stresses how experiences of deprivation can erode the perceived legitimacy of political leaders and institutions, increase alienation, and encourage right-wing radicalization and hate crime. Existing analyses have found limited support for a close relationship between deprivation and radicalization among individuals. We provide an alternative approach using highly disaggregated data for England and show that information on local deprivation can improve predictions of the location of right-wing hate crime attacks. Beyond the ability to predict where right-wing hate crime is likely, our results suggest that efforts to decrease deprivation can have important consequences for political violence, and that targeting structural facilitators to prevent far-right violence ex ante can be an alternative or complement to ex post measures.