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1.
Artigo em Inglês | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-53012

RESUMO

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. To assess coverage and inequalities in maternal and child health interventions among Haitians, Haitian migrants in the Dominican Republic and Dominicans. Methods. Cross-sectional study using data from nationally representative surveys carried out in Haiti in 2012 and in the Dominican Republic in 2014. Nine indicators were compared: demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods, antenatal care, delivery care (skilled birth attendance), child vaccination (BCG, measles and DPT3), child case management (oral rehydration salts for diarrhea and careseeking for suspected pneumonia), and the composite coverage index. Wealth was measured through an asset-based index, divided into tertiles, and place of residence (urban or rural) was established according to the country definition. Results. Haitians showed the lowest coverage for demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods (44.2%), antenatal care (65.3%), skilled birth attendance (39.5%) and careseeking for suspected pneumonia (37.9%), and the highest for oral rehydration salts for diarrhea (52.9%), whereas Haitian migrants had the lowest coverage in DPT3 (44.1%) and oral rehydration salts for diarrhea (38%) and the highest in careseeking for suspected pneumonia (80.7%). Dominicans presented the highest coverage for most indicators, except oral rehydration salts for diarrhea and careseeking for suspected pneumonia. The composite coverage index was 79.2% for Dominicans, 69.0% for Haitian migrants, and 52.6% for Haitians. Socioeconomic inequalities generally had pro-rich and pro-urban pattern in all analyzed groups. Conclusion. Haitian migrants presented higher coverage than Haitians, but lower than Dominicans. Both countries should plan actions and policies to increase coverage and address inequalities of maternal health interventions.


[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Evaluar la cobertura y las desigualdades en las intervenciones de salud maternoinfantil entre haitianos, migrantes haitianos en la República Dominicana y dominicanos. Métodos. Estudio transversal con datos de encuestas representativas a nivel nacional realizadas en Haití en 2012 y en la República Dominicana en 2014. Se compararon nueve indicadores: demanda de planificación familiar satisfecha con métodos modernos, atención prenatal, atención del parto (por personal de salud calificado), vacunación infantil (BCG, sarampión y DPT3), gestión de casos de enfermedad en la infancia (administración de sales de rehidratación oral para la diarrea y búsqueda de atención sanitaria ante la sospecha de neumonía), e índice de cobertura compuesto. La riqueza se midió mediante un índice basado en los activos, dividido en terciles, y el lugar de residencia (urbano o rural) se determinó según la definición del país. Resultados. La población haitiana mostró la menor cobertura respecto de la demanda de planificación familiar satisfecha con métodos modernos (44,2%), atención prenatal (65,3%), asistencia calificada en el parto (39,5%) y búsqueda de atención sanitaria ante la sospecha de neumonía (37,9%), y la mayor respecto de la administración de sales de rehidratación oral para la diarrea (52,9%); los migrantes haitianos presentaron la menor cobertura en DPT3 (44,1%) y la administración de sales de rehidratación oral para la diarrea (38%) y la mayor en la búsqueda de atención sanitaria ante la sospecha de neumonía (80,7%). La población dominicana presentó la cobertura más alta en la mayoría de los indicadores, excepto en la administración de sales de rehidratación oral para la diarrea y en la búsqueda de atención sanitaria ante la sospecha de neumonía. El índice de cobertura compuesto fue de 79,2% para los dominicanos, 69,0% para los migrantes haitianos y 52,6% para los haitianos. Las desigualdades socioeconómicas generalmente tenían un patrón prorrico y prourbano en todos los grupos analizados. Conclusión. Los migrantes haitianos en la República Dominicana presentaron una mayor cobertura que la población haitiana residente en Haití, pero menor que la población dominicana. Ambos países deberían planificar acciones y políticas para aumentar la cobertura y abordar las desigualdades existentes en las intervenciones de salud materna.


Assuntos
Migração Humana , Saúde Materna , Saúde da Criança , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde , Haiti , República Dominicana , Migração Humana , Saúde Materna , Saúde da Criança , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde , Haiti , República Dominicana
2.
Nature ; 586(7831): 644, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33116292
3.
PLoS One ; 15(10): e0239408, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33007015

RESUMO

Empirical research on migration has historically been fraught with measurement challenges. Recently, the increasing ubiquity of digital trace data-from mobile phones, social media, and related sources of 'big data'-has created new opportunities for the quantitative analysis of migration. However, most existing work relies on relatively ad hoc methods for inferring migration. Here, we develop and validate a novel and general approach to detecting migration events in trace data. We benchmark this method using two different trace datasets: four years of mobile phone metadata from a single country's monopoly operator, and three years of geo-tagged Twitter data. The novel measures more accurately reflect human understanding and evaluation of migration events, and further provide more granular insight into migration spells and types than what are captured in standard survey instruments.


Assuntos
Migração Humana/estatística & dados numéricos , Estatística como Assunto/métodos , Algoritmos , Humanos , Mídias Sociais , Incerteza
4.
JAMA ; 324(14): 1429-1438, 2020 10 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33048153

RESUMO

Importance: The prevalence of leading risk factors for morbidity and mortality in the US significantly varies across regions, states, and neighborhoods, but the extent these differences are associated with a person's place of residence vs the characteristics of the people who live in different places remains unclear. Objective: To estimate the degree to which geographic differences in leading risk factors are associated with a person's place of residence by comparing trends in health outcomes among individuals who moved to different areas or did not move. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study estimated the association between the differences in the prevalence of uncontrolled chronic conditions across movers' destination and origin zip codes and changes in individuals' likelihood of uncontrolled chronic conditions after moving, adjusting for person-specific fixed effects, the duration of time since the move, and secular trends among movers and those who did not move. Electronic health records from the Veterans Health Administration were analyzed. The primary analysis included 5 342 207 individuals with at least 1 Veterans Health Administration outpatient encounter between 2008 and 2018 who moved zip codes exactly once or never moved. Exposures: The difference in the prevalence of uncontrolled chronic conditions between a person's origin zip code and destination zip code (excluding the individual mover's outcomes). Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence of uncontrolled blood pressure (systolic blood pressure level >140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure level >90 mm Hg), uncontrolled diabetes (hemoglobin A1c level >8%), obesity (body mass index >30), and depressive symptoms (2-item Patient Health Questionnaire score ≥2) per quarter-year during the 3 years before and the 3 years after individuals moved. Results: The study population included 5 342 207 individuals (mean age, 57.6 [SD, 17.4] years, 93.9% men, 72.5% White individuals, and 12.7% Black individuals), of whom 1 095 608 moved exactly once and 4 246 599 never moved during the study period. Among the movers, the change after moving in the prevalence of uncontrolled blood pressure was 27.5% (95% CI, 23.8%-31.3%) of the between-area difference in the prevalence of uncontrolled blood pressure. Similarly, the change after moving in the prevalence of uncontrolled diabetes was 5.0% (95% CI, 2.7%-7.2%) of the between-area difference in the prevalence of uncontrolled diabetes; the change after moving in the prevalence of obesity was 3.1% (95% CI, 2.0%-4.2%) of the between-area difference in the prevalence of obesity; and the change after moving in the prevalence of depressive symptoms was 15.2% (95% CI, 13.1%-17.2%) of the between-area difference in the prevalence of depressive symptoms. Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective cohort study of individuals receiving care at Veterans Health Administration facilities, geographic differences in prevalence were associated with a substantial percentage of the change in individuals' likelihood of poor blood pressure control or depressive symptoms, and a smaller percentage of the change in individuals' likelihood of poor diabetes control and obesity. Further research is needed to understand the source of these associations with a person's place of residence.


Assuntos
Transtorno Depressivo/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Migração Humana/estatística & dados numéricos , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos , Doença Crônica/epidemiologia , Doença Crônica/etnologia , Transtorno Depressivo/etnologia , Diabetes Mellitus/etnologia , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Geografia Médica , Migração Humana/tendências , Humanos , Hipertensão/etnologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Obesidade/etnologia , Prevalência , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo , Incerteza , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/etnologia , Serviços de Saúde para Veteranos Militares/estatística & dados numéricos
5.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 5347, 2020 10 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33093464

RESUMO

In 1970, the seventh pandemic of cholera (7 P) reached both Africa and Europe. Between 1970 and 2011, several European countries reported cholera outbreaks of a few to more than 2,000 cases. We report here a whole-genome analysis of 1,324 7 P V. cholerae El Tor (7 PET) isolates, including 172 from autochthonous sporadic or outbreak cholera cases occurring between 1970 and 2011 in Europe, providing insight into the spatial and temporal spread of this pathogen across Europe. In this work, we show that the 7 PET lineage was introduced at least eight times into two main regions: Eastern and Southern Europe. Greater recurrence of the disease was observed in Eastern Europe, where it persisted until 2011. It was introduced into this region from Southern Asia, often circulating regionally in the countries bordering the Black Sea, and in the Middle East before reaching Eastern Africa on several occasions. In Southern Europe, the disease was mostly seen in individual countries during the 1970s and was imported from North and West Africa, except in 1994, when cholera was imported into Albania and Italy from the Black Sea region. These results shed light on the geographic course of cholera during the seventh pandemic and highlight the role of humans in its global dissemination.


Assuntos
Cólera/história , Pandemias/história , Cólera/epidemiologia , Cólera/microbiologia , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana/genética , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Evolução Molecular , Genoma Bacteriano , Genômica , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Migração Humana/história , Humanos , Filogenia , Ribotipagem , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Vibrio cholerae/classificação , Vibrio cholerae/genética , Vibrio cholerae/isolamento & purificação
6.
Nature ; 585(7825): 390-396, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32939067

RESUMO

The maritime expansion of Scandinavian populations during the Viking Age (about AD 750-1050) was a far-flung transformation in world history1,2. Here we sequenced the genomes of 442 humans from archaeological sites across Europe and Greenland (to a median depth of about 1×) to understand the global influence of this expansion. We find the Viking period involved gene flow into Scandinavia from the south and east. We observe genetic structure within Scandinavia, with diversity hotspots in the south and restricted gene flow within Scandinavia. We find evidence for a major influx of Danish ancestry into England; a Swedish influx into the Baltic; and Norwegian influx into Ireland, Iceland and Greenland. Additionally, we see substantial ancestry from elsewhere in Europe entering Scandinavia during the Viking Age. Our ancient DNA analysis also revealed that a Viking expedition included close family members. By comparing with modern populations, we find that pigmentation-associated loci have undergone strong population differentiation during the past millennium, and trace positively selected loci-including the lactase-persistence allele of LCT and alleles of ANKA that are associated with the immune response-in detail. We conclude that the Viking diaspora was characterized by substantial transregional engagement: distinct populations influenced the genomic makeup of different regions of Europe, and Scandinavia experienced increased contact with the rest of the continent.


Assuntos
Fluxo Gênico/genética , Genética Populacional , Genoma Humano/genética , Genômica , Migração Humana/história , Alelos , Conjuntos de Dados como Assunto , Inglaterra , Evolução Molecular , Groenlândia , História Medieval , Humanos , Imunidade/genética , Irlanda , Lactase/genética , Lactase/metabolismo , Masculino , Países Escandinavos e Nórdicos , Seleção Genética , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Adulto Jovem
7.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0238255, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32936832

RESUMO

It was shown that the human Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is the receptor of recent coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and variation in this gene may affect the susceptibility of a population. Therefore, we have analysed the sequence data of ACE2 among 393 samples worldwide, focusing on South Asia. Genetically, South Asians are more related to West Eurasian populations rather than to East Eurasians. In the present analyses of ACE2, we observed that the majority of South Asian haplotypes are closer to East Eurasians rather than to West Eurasians. The phylogenetic analysis suggested that the South Asian haplotypes shared with East Eurasians involved two unique event polymorphisms (rs4646120 and rs2285666). In contrast with the European/American populations, both of the SNPs have largely similar frequencies for East Eurasians and South Asians, Therefore, it is likely that among the South Asians, host susceptibility to the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will be more similar to that of East Eurasians rather than to that of Europeans.


Assuntos
Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Asiático/genética , Infecções por Coronavirus/genética , Peptidil Dipeptidase A/genética , Pneumonia Viral/genética , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Receptores Virais/genética , Ásia/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus/fisiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/etnologia , Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Europeu/genética , Haplótipos/genética , Migração Humana , Humanos , Desequilíbrio de Ligação , Pandemias , Filogenia , Pneumonia Viral/etnologia
8.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0239195, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32941544

RESUMO

The Howiesons Poort (HP) of southern Africa plays an important role in models on the early behavioral evolution of Homo sapiens. The HP is often portrayed as a coherent MSA industry characterized by early complex material culture. Recent work has emphasized parallel technological change through time across southern Africa potentially driven by ecological adaptations or demographic change. Here we examine patterns of diachronic variation within the HP and evaluate potential causal factors behind these changes. We test previous temporal assessments of the technocomplex at the local and regional level based on high-resolution quantitative data on HP lithic assemblages from Sibudu (KwaZulu-Natal) and comparisons with other southern African sites. At Sibudu, consistent unidirectional change in lithic technology characterizes the HP sequence. The results show a gradual reduction in typical HP markers such as the proportion of blades, backed pieces, and HP cores, as well as declining size of blades and backed artifacts. Quantitative comparisons with seven HP sites in South Africa suggest that lithic technology varies between regions over time instead of following similar changes. Concerning hypotheses of causal drivers, directional changes in lithic technology at Sibudu covary with shifting hunting patterns towards larger-sized bovids and a gradual opening of the vegetation. In contrast, variation in lithic technology shows little association with site use, mobility patterns or demographic expansions. Unlike at Sibudu, diachronic changes at other HP sites such as Diepkloof, Klasies River and Klipdrift appear to be associated with aspects of mobility, technological organization and site use. The regional diachronic patterns in the HP partly follow paleoclimatic zones, which could imply different ecological adaptations and distinct connection networks over time. Divergent and at times decoupled changes in lithic traits across sites precludes monocausal explanations for the entire HP, supporting more complex models for the observed technological trajectories.


Assuntos
Evolução Biológica , Evolução Cultural , Desenvolvimento Industrial , Arqueologia , Migração Humana , Humanos , Comportamento Social , África do Sul
9.
Univ. salud ; 22(2): 127-136, mayo-ago. 2020. tab
Artigo em Espanhol | LILACS, COLNAL | ID: biblio-1115962

RESUMO

Introducción: La migración es un fenómeno a nivel mundial que involucra a los trabajadores de las diferentes áreas como son los profesionales de la salud. Objetivo: Determinar factores de atracción-expulsión que han motivado a los médicos extranjeros a migrar escogiendo a Chile como destino, desde la perspectiva de los encargados de salud en Atención Primaria de Salud. Materiales y métodos: Estudio de caso teórico-explicativo con abordaje cualitativo en epidemiología crítica, realizado en la municipalidad de Pedro Aguirre Cerda (Chile). Se aplicó entrevistas individuales semiestructuradas a actores tomadores de decisión en la APS. Resultados: Se identificó como factores de atracción la permanencia del médico extranjero en APS, se reconoce a Chile como su hogar, relación oferta y demanda de trabajo con alta rotación. Factores expulsión: ausencia de una política de incorporación e incentivo para los médicos al servicio de APS, formación profesional diferenciada en el extranjero. Conclusiones: La identificación de factores que influyen en la atracción y expulsión de médicos en Chile, permite generar políticas públicas que mejoren las condiciones laborales de estos profesionales.


Introduction: Migration is a worldwide phenomenon that affects workers from different areas, including health professionals. Objective: To determine the attraction-expulsion factors that have motivated foreign medical doctors to migrate to Chile, this study analyzed the perspective of those who are responsible for health care in the Primary Health Care model. Materials and methods: A theoretical-explanatory case study was carried out in the municipality of Pedro Aguirre Cerda (Chile), using a qualitative approach in critical epidemiology. Individual semi-structured interviews were administered to decision-making personnel in the Primary Health Care model. Results: The following were identified as attraction factors: (i) job stability of foreign physicians at the PHCs; (ii) recognition of Chile as their home; and (iii) the supply-demand relationship seen in high-rotation jobs. On the other hand, the absence of policies of inclusion and incentives for physicians working at PHCs, and differences in medical professional training abroad were characterized as expulsion factors. Conclusions: The identification of factors that influence the attraction and expulsion of medical doctors to/from Chile contributes to generating public policies that improve the working conditions of these health professionals.


Assuntos
Políticas Públicas de Saúde , Migração Humana , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Médicos de Atenção Primária , América Latina
10.
Rev Infirm ; 69(262): 29-32, 2020.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32838863

RESUMO

More attention is being focused on the consequences of climate change on migration and public health, but they are still poorly understood. While the health risks caused by climate change can contribute to an increase in migration, migrating and displaced people are also more exposed, due to the difficulties they face in accessing health services. The still unknown relationship between climate change, disasters, migration and health needs to be exposed.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Migração Humana , Saúde Pública , Humanos
11.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 3868, 2020 08 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32747648

RESUMO

Archaeological research documents major technological shifts among people who have lived in the southern tip of South America (South Patagonia) during the last thirteen millennia, including the development of marine-based economies and changes in tools and raw materials. It has been proposed that movements of people spreading culture and technology propelled some of these shifts, but these hypotheses have not been tested with ancient DNA. Here we report genome-wide data from 20 ancient individuals, and co-analyze it with previously reported data. We reveal that immigration does not explain the appearance of marine adaptations in South Patagonia. We describe partial genetic continuity since ~6600 BP and two later gene flows correlated with technological changes: one between 4700-2000 BP that affected primarily marine-based groups, and a later one impacting all <2000 BP groups. From ~2200-1200 BP, mixture among neighbors resulted in a cline correlated to geographic ordering along the coast.


Assuntos
DNA Antigo/análise , Fósseis , Fluxo Gênico , Genoma Humano/genética , Migração Humana , Arqueologia/métodos , Argentina , Osso e Ossos/metabolismo , Chile , DNA Mitocondrial/classificação , DNA Mitocondrial/genética , Variação Genética , Geografia , Humanos , Filogenia , Datação Radiométrica/métodos , Análise de Sequência de DNA/métodos , Dente/metabolismo
12.
PLoS Genet ; 16(8): e1008895, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32760067

RESUMO

The sequencing of Neanderthal and Denisovan genomes has yielded many new insights about interbreeding events between extinct hominins and the ancestors of modern humans. While much attention has been paid to the relatively recent gene flow from Neanderthals and Denisovans into modern humans, other instances of introgression leave more subtle genomic evidence and have received less attention. Here, we present a major extension of the ARGweaver algorithm, called ARGweaver-D, which can infer local genetic relationships under a user-defined demographic model that includes population splits and migration events. This Bayesian algorithm probabilistically samples ancestral recombination graphs (ARGs) that specify not only tree topologies and branch lengths along the genome, but also indicate migrant lineages. The sampled ARGs can therefore be parsed to produce probabilities of introgression along the genome. We show that this method is well powered to detect the archaic migration into modern humans, even with only a few samples. We then show that the method can also detect introgressed regions stemming from older migration events, or from unsampled populations. We apply it to human, Neanderthal, and Denisovan genomes, looking for signatures of older proposed migration events, including ancient humans into Neanderthal, and unknown archaic hominins into Denisovans. We identify 3% of the Neanderthal genome that is putatively introgressed from ancient humans, and estimate that the gene flow occurred between 200-300kya. We find no convincing evidence that negative selection acted against these regions. Finally, we predict that 1% of the Denisovan genome was introgressed from an unsequenced, but highly diverged, archaic hominin ancestor. About 15% of these "super-archaic" regions-comprising at least about 4Mb-were, in turn, introgressed into modern humans and continue to exist in the genomes of people alive today.


Assuntos
Fluxo Gênico , Modelos Genéticos , Homem de Neandertal/genética , População/genética , Recombinação Genética , Animais , Evolução Molecular , Migração Humana , Humanos
13.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0236248, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32760147

RESUMO

Migration has long been used as a strategy for livelihood diversification in rural, subsistence communities. Yet in order for migration to effectively serve as a livelihood diversification strategy, it should meet certain conditions: migration should ease financial burdens, should confer access to economically valuable resources and information, and should broaden social networks. Using qualitative data gathered in 25 interviews with rural migrants to Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, we examine how mobile phone technology has impacted migration as a livelihood diversification strategy. Our results show that while mobile phones facilitate migration, the advantages conferred may benefit migrants at the expense of the home communities. Mobile phones alleviate financial constraints, enable access to broader networks, and facilitate informational and resource support among migrants. Our results show limited evidence of migrants using mobile phone technology to provide resources or information to the home community. Our results highlight the need to reconsider the ways in which migration can be used as a livelihood diversification strategy in light of changing communication technologies to promote the economic success of both migrants and their home communities.


Assuntos
Telefone Celular , Tomada de Decisões , Comportamento Exploratório , Migração Humana , População Rural , Adulto , Burkina Faso , Países em Desenvolvimento , Feminino , Grupos Focais , Humanos , Masculino , Pesquisa Qualitativa , Adulto Jovem
14.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0236326, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32822363

RESUMO

This study aimed to test whether or not where people come from and move to impacts their method for dealing with stress. We investigated this research question among newcomers crossing between the rice and wheat farming regions in China-south and north China, respectively. New evidence suggests wheat-farming agriculture fosters a coping strategy of changing the environment (primary coping), while rice-farming regions foster the converse strategy of fitting into the environment (secondary coping). Using two longitudinal studies on newcomers at universities located in both the rice and wheat farming regions, we hypothesized that students from south China (rice region) at a university in north China (wheat region) would use more primary coping and it would lead to better adaptation (Study 1). In contrast, students from wheat-farming regions moving to a rice university would benefit from secondary coping as an effective strategy for buffering stress (Study 2). Results indicated that for students from rice-farming regions who were studying universities in wheat-farming regions, secondary coping was damaging and attenuated the stress-adaptation relationship. However, in study 2, the reverse was found, as secondary coping was found to buffer the negative effects of stress on sociocultural adaptation for students from wheat-farming regions who were studying at universities in rice-farming regions. This study lends further support to the theory that ecological factors impact how individuals cope with the acculturative stress of moving to a new environment.


Assuntos
Aculturação , Adaptação Psicológica , Produção Agrícola , Comparação Transcultural , Migração Humana , Adolescente , China , Produtos Agrícolas , Fazendas , Feminino , Geografia , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Oryza , Estudantes/psicologia , Triticum , Universidades , Adulto Jovem
15.
PLoS One ; 15(7): e0236646, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32735571

RESUMO

Since 2007 the number of refugees fleeing conflict and violence has doubled to more than 25 million. We leverage high frequency data on migration, sea conditions, and riots to investigate how political and environmental risks influence migration and human smuggling across the Mediterranean Sea. We report results from two observational studies. A high frequency time-series study demonstrates that risks alter migration patterns. An event study design demonstrates the effectiveness of a policy intervention that targeted Libyan militias engaged in human smuggling. The results highlight the important role of environmental and political risks in transit countries and their implications for migration and human smuggling.


Assuntos
Meio Ambiente , Migração Humana/estatística & dados numéricos , Política , Violência , Humanos , Mar Mediterrâneo , Refugiados/estatística & dados numéricos , Risco , Fatores de Tempo
16.
PLoS One ; 15(7): e0236412, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32735590

RESUMO

Competitive intelligence (CI) has attracted much attention in innovation research, but most of existing literature studies CI in technological innovations in manufacturing industry, with little empirical research in context of service businesses. This paper first analyzes CI of service businesses and then uses covariance-based structural equation modeling (SEM) on a data of 333 got from the survey in tourism enterprises of east China to test the effect of customer CI, opponent CI, and supplier CI on service innovations in China's service industry. Results show that opponent CI and supplier CI have positive influence on both exploratory and exploitative service innovation. Customer CI has more obvious positive influence on exploratory service innovation than on exploitative service innovation.


Assuntos
Pesquisa Empírica , Indústrias/tendências , Inteligência , Invenções/tendências , China , Comércio/tendências , Análise Fatorial , Migração Humana/tendências , Humanos , Marketing/tendências , Software , Inquéritos e Questionários
20.
Lancet ; 396(10258): 1285-1306, 2020 10 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32679112

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts. METHODS: We modelled future population in reference and alternative scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates. We developed statistical models for completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50). Completed cohort fertility is much more stable over time than the period measure of the total fertility rate (TFR). We modelled CCF50 as a time-series random walk function of educational attainment and contraceptive met need. Age-specific fertility rates were modelled as a function of CCF50 and covariates. We modelled age-specific mortality to 2100 using underlying mortality, a risk factor scalar, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Net migration was modelled as a function of the Socio-demographic Index, crude population growth rate, and deaths from war and natural disasters; and use of an ARIMA model. The model framework was used to develop a reference scenario and alternative scenarios based on the pace of change in educational attainment and contraceptive met need. We estimated the size of gross domestic product for each country and territory in the reference scenario. Forecast uncertainty intervals (UIs) incorporated uncertainty propagated from past data inputs, model estimation, and forecast data distributions. FINDINGS: The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33-2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84-10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83-11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72-1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594-1056]), China (732 million [456-1499]), the USA (336 million [248-456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151-427]). Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91-2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11-2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (-6·1 to 68·4). China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098. Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82-8·73) in 2100 and a population of 6·88 billion (5·27-9·51) when assuming 99th percentile rates of change in these drivers. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Coeficiente de Natalidade/tendências , Carga Global da Doença/tendências , Migração Humana/tendências , Mortalidade/tendências , Crescimento Demográfico , Feminino , Previsões , Humanos , Masculino
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