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1.
PLoS One ; 16(6): e0253803, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1282316

RESUMO

This paper investigates how banking competition and capital level impact on the risk-taking behavior of banking institutions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The topic is perceived to be of significant importance during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use data for more than 225 banks in 18 countries in the MENA region to test whether increased competition causes banks to hold higher capital ratios. Employing panel data techniques, and distinguishing between Islamic and conventional banks, we show that banks tend to hold higher capital ratios when operating in a more competitive environment. We also provide evidence that banks in the MENA region increase their capitalization levels in response to a higher risk and vice versa. Further, banking concentration (measured by the HH-index) and credit risk have a significant and positive impact on capital ratios of IBs, whereas competition does play a restrictive role in determining the level of their capital. The results hold when controlling for ownership structure, regulatory and institutional environment, bank-specific and macroeconomic characteristics. Our findings inform regulatory authorities concerned with improving the financial stability of banking sector in the MENA region to strengthen their policies in order to force banks to better align with capital requirements and risk during the COVID-19 pandemic.


Assuntos
Conta Bancária/economia , COVID-19 , Emprego , Modelos Econômicos , Pandemias/economia , SARS-CoV-2 , África do Norte/epidemiologia , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Assunção de Riscos
2.
Viruses ; 13(5)2021 05 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1234828

RESUMO

The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes.


Assuntos
COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Política de Saúde/economia , Pandemias/economia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Análise Custo-Benefício , Governo , Produto Interno Bruto , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Programas de Rastreamento , Modelos Econômicos , Modelos Teóricos , Técnicas de Diagnóstico Molecular , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Espanha/epidemiologia
3.
PLoS One ; 16(6): e0252400, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1259239

RESUMO

We compare the health and economic costs of early and delayed mandated suppression and the unmitigated spread of 'first-wave' COVID-19 infections in Australia in 2020. Using a fit-for-purpose SIQRM-compartment model for susceptible, infected, quarantined, recovered and mortalities on active cases, that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (A-VSL), we find that the economic costs of unmitigated suppression are multiples more than for early mandated suppression. We also find that using an equivalent VSLY welfare loss from fatalities to estimated GDP losses, drawn from survey data and our own estimates of the impact of suppression measures on the economy, means that for early suppression not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australia would have to incur more than 12,500-30,000 deaths, depending on the fatality rate with unmitigated spread, to the economy costs of early mandated suppression. We also find that early rather than delayed mandated suppression imposes much lower economy and health costs and conclude that in high-income countries, like Australia, a 'go early, go hard' strategy to suppress COVID-19 results in the lowest estimated public health and economy costs.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Modelos Econômicos , SARS-CoV-2 , Austrália/epidemiologia , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/transmissão , Custos e Análise de Custo , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino
4.
PLoS One ; 16(6): e0253803, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34166479

RESUMO

This paper investigates how banking competition and capital level impact on the risk-taking behavior of banking institutions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The topic is perceived to be of significant importance during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use data for more than 225 banks in 18 countries in the MENA region to test whether increased competition causes banks to hold higher capital ratios. Employing panel data techniques, and distinguishing between Islamic and conventional banks, we show that banks tend to hold higher capital ratios when operating in a more competitive environment. We also provide evidence that banks in the MENA region increase their capitalization levels in response to a higher risk and vice versa. Further, banking concentration (measured by the HH-index) and credit risk have a significant and positive impact on capital ratios of IBs, whereas competition does play a restrictive role in determining the level of their capital. The results hold when controlling for ownership structure, regulatory and institutional environment, bank-specific and macroeconomic characteristics. Our findings inform regulatory authorities concerned with improving the financial stability of banking sector in the MENA region to strengthen their policies in order to force banks to better align with capital requirements and risk during the COVID-19 pandemic.


Assuntos
Conta Bancária/economia , COVID-19 , Emprego , Modelos Econômicos , Pandemias/economia , SARS-CoV-2 , África do Norte/epidemiologia , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Assunção de Riscos
5.
PLoS One ; 16(6): e0252400, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34086731

RESUMO

We compare the health and economic costs of early and delayed mandated suppression and the unmitigated spread of 'first-wave' COVID-19 infections in Australia in 2020. Using a fit-for-purpose SIQRM-compartment model for susceptible, infected, quarantined, recovered and mortalities on active cases, that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (A-VSL), we find that the economic costs of unmitigated suppression are multiples more than for early mandated suppression. We also find that using an equivalent VSLY welfare loss from fatalities to estimated GDP losses, drawn from survey data and our own estimates of the impact of suppression measures on the economy, means that for early suppression not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australia would have to incur more than 12,500-30,000 deaths, depending on the fatality rate with unmitigated spread, to the economy costs of early mandated suppression. We also find that early rather than delayed mandated suppression imposes much lower economy and health costs and conclude that in high-income countries, like Australia, a 'go early, go hard' strategy to suppress COVID-19 results in the lowest estimated public health and economy costs.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Modelos Econômicos , SARS-CoV-2 , Austrália/epidemiologia , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/transmissão , Custos e Análise de Custo , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino
6.
Viruses ; 13(5)2021 05 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34063465

RESUMO

The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes.


Assuntos
COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Política de Saúde/economia , Pandemias/economia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Análise Custo-Benefício , Governo , Produto Interno Bruto , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Programas de Rastreamento , Modelos Econômicos , Modelos Teóricos , Técnicas de Diagnóstico Molecular , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Espanha/epidemiologia
7.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0251715, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1238765

RESUMO

This paper explores to what extent product and marketing channel diversification contributed to the economic success of small-scale agricultural producers involved in short food supply chains after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. A survey was conducted between April and July 2020 in four countries of the European Union-Estonia, Hungary, Portugal and Romania,-resulting in a relatively large sample of farmers (N = 421). The analysis was built on a semi-nonparametric approach. Approximately 19 percent of small-scale producers were able to increase sales during the first wave of the pandemic, although country-level variation was significant. Fruits and vegetables were by far the most popular products. The importance of specific channels varied across countries, but farm gate sales were among the most important marketing channels both before and during the first wave. The importance of channels that were based on digital resources and home delivery increased. Our evidence indicates that diversification was a strategy that paid off, both in terms of marketing channels and different product categories. However, the impact appears to be nonlinear; the initial advantage generated by diversification rapidly tapered off, either temporarily (in the case of products), or permanently (in the case of marketing channels). Later research may clarify whether these findings are generalizable in other socio-economic contexts, as well as in a non-COVID situation.


Assuntos
Agricultura/métodos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Modelos Econômicos , Quarentena/economia , Agricultura/estatística & dados numéricos , COVID-19/economia , Europa (Continente) , Fazendeiros/psicologia , Humanos , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos , Inquéritos e Questionários
8.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0250938, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1236585

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic seems to be the most important phenomenon observed from March 2020 in virtually all countries of the world. The necessity to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and keep health care systems efficient resulted in the forced, drastic limitation of economic activity. Many service sectors were hit particularly hard with this but industry and agriculture were also affected. In particular, the pandemic substantially influenced financial markets and we can observe that some markets or instruments vary in stability since they have been affected in the different degree. In the paper, we present the problem of stability of stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the low number of works related to CEE countries during the pandemic, we analyze the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which is one of the most important markets in the CEE. Our main goal was to find how various industries represented by stock market indices have reacted to the COVID-19 shock and consequently which sectors turned out to keep stability and remained resistant to the pandemic. In our investigation, we use two clustering methods: the K-means and the Ward techniques with the criterion of maximizing the silhouette coefficient and six indicators describing stability in terms of profitability, volume, overbought/oversold conditions and volatility. The results of the research present that during the pandemic it was possible to identify 5 clusters of sector indices in the short term and 4 in the medium term. We found that the composition of the clusters is quite stable over time and that none of the obtained clusters can be univocally considered the most or the least stable taking into account all the analyzed indicators. However, we showed that the obtained clusters have different stability origins, i.e. they vary from each other in terms of the investigated indicators of stability.


Assuntos
COVID-19/economia , Comércio/economia , Investimentos em Saúde/economia , Pandemias/economia , Humanos , Modelos Econômicos
9.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0246053, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1247640

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of health loss and health sector economic burdens in high-income countries. Unemployment is associated with increased risk of CVD, and so there is concern that the economic downturn associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will increase the CVD burden. AIMS: This modeling study aimed to quantify potential health loss, health cost burden and health inequities among people with CVD due to additional unemployment caused by COVID-19 pandemic-related economic disruption in one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: We adapted an established and validated multi-state life-table model for CVD in the national NZ population. We modeled indirect effects (ie, higher CVD incidence due to high unemployment rates) for various scenarios of pandemic-related unemployment projections from the NZ Treasury. RESULTS: We estimated the potential CVD-related heath loss in NZ to range from 23,300 to 36,900 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for the different unemployment scenarios. Health inequities would be increased with the per capita health loss for Maori (Indigenous population) estimated to be 3.7 times greater than for non-Maori (49.9 vs 13.5 HALYs lost per 1000 people). The estimated additional health system costs ranged between (NZ$303 million [m] to 503m in 2019 values; or US$209m to 346m). CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic could cause significant health loss, increase health inequities from CVD, and impose additional health system costs in this high-income country. Prevention measures should be considered by governments to reduce this risk, including additional job creation programs and measures directed towards the primary prevention of CVD.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Modelos Econômicos , Pandemias/economia , SARS-CoV-2 , Desemprego , COVID-19/complicações , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Nova Zelândia/epidemiologia
10.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(5)2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1247364

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Policy makers need to be rapidly informed about the potential equity consequences of different COVID-19 strategies, alongside their broader health and economic impacts. While there are complex models to inform both potential health and macro-economic impact, there are few tools available to rapidly assess potential equity impacts of interventions. METHODS: We created an economic model to simulate the impact of lockdown measures in Pakistan, Georgia, Chile, UK, the Philippines and South Africa. We consider impact of lockdown in terms of ability to socially distance, and income loss during lockdown, and tested the impact of assumptions on social protection coverage in a scenario analysis. RESULTS: In all examined countries, socioeconomic status (SES) quintiles 1-3 were disproportionately more likely to experience income loss (70% of people) and inability to socially distance (68% of people) than higher SES quintiles. Improving social protection increased the percentage of the workforce able to socially distance from 48% (33%-60%) to 66% (44%-71%). We estimate the cost of this social protection would be equivalent to an average of 0.6% gross domestic product (0.1% Pakistan-1.1% Chile). CONCLUSIONS: We illustrate the potential for using publicly available data to rapidly assess the equity implications of social protection and non-pharmaceutical intervention policy. Social protection is likely to mitigate inequitable health and economic impacts of lockdown. Although social protection is usually targeted to the poorest, middle quintiles will likely also need support as they are most likely to suffer income losses and are disproportionately more exposed.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Equidade em Saúde , Pobreza , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Chile/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Georgia/epidemiologia , Equidade em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Modelos Econômicos , Paquistão/epidemiologia , Filipinas/epidemiologia , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , África do Sul/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
11.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0250112, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1215145

RESUMO

A COVID-19 vaccine is the key to beating the virus, and effective vaccines are going to be available in the near future. It is urgent to estimate the acceptability of COVID-19 vaccines and their value to individuals, in order to develop an effective public vaccination strategy. Based on a survey of 1,188 randomly selected respondents in China, we analyzed Chinese consumers' willingness to get a COVID-19 vaccine and their willingness to pay for it. We find that 79.41% of the respondents are willing to get vaccinated in China, and the average amount that they're willing to pay for a COVID-19 vaccine shot is 130.45 yuan. However, though the elderly are at higher risk of infection and the disease could be fatal for them, they are less willing to get the vaccine and not willing to pay as much for the shot. Subsidies and health communication concerning COVID-19 vaccines should be provided in order to expand vaccination coverage.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinação/economia , Adulto , COVID-19/virologia , Vacinas contra COVID-19/economia , China , Feminino , Humanos , Internet , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Econômicos , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Inquéritos e Questionários , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem
12.
Public Health ; 194: 263-269, 2021 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33992906

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: The widely used World Health Organization (WHO) Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for walking and cycling quantifies health impacts in terms of premature deaths avoided or caused as a result of changes in active transport. This article attempts to assess the effect of incorporating 'life-years' as an impact measure to increase the precision of the model and assess the effect on the tool's usability. STUDY DESIGN: This article is a methods paper, using simulation to estimate the effect of a methodological change to the HEAT 4.2 physical activity module. METHODS: We use the widely used WHO HEAT for walking and cycling as a case study. HEAT currently quantifies health impacts in terms of premature deaths avoided or caused as a result of changes in active transport. We assess the effect of incorporating "duration of life gained" as an impact measure to increase the precision of the model without substantially affecting usability or increasing data requirements. RESULTS: Compared with the existing tool (HEAT version 4.2), which values premature deaths avoided, estimates derived by valuing life-years gained are more sensitive to the age of the population affected by an intervention, with results for older and younger age groups being markedly different between the two methods. This is likely to improve the precision of the tool, especially where it is applied to interventions that affect age groups differentially. The life-years method requires additional background data (obtained and used in this analysis) and minimal additional user inputs; however, this may also make the tool harder to explain to users. CONCLUSIONS: Methodological improvements in the precision of widely used tools, such as the HEAT, may also inadvertently reduce their practical usability. It is therefore important to consider the overall impact on the tool's value to stakeholders and explore ways of mitigating potential reductions in usability.


Assuntos
Ciclismo , Avaliação do Impacto na Saúde/métodos , Caminhada , Humanos , Modelos Econômicos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Organização Mundial da Saúde
13.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0246053, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34043626

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of health loss and health sector economic burdens in high-income countries. Unemployment is associated with increased risk of CVD, and so there is concern that the economic downturn associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will increase the CVD burden. AIMS: This modeling study aimed to quantify potential health loss, health cost burden and health inequities among people with CVD due to additional unemployment caused by COVID-19 pandemic-related economic disruption in one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: We adapted an established and validated multi-state life-table model for CVD in the national NZ population. We modeled indirect effects (ie, higher CVD incidence due to high unemployment rates) for various scenarios of pandemic-related unemployment projections from the NZ Treasury. RESULTS: We estimated the potential CVD-related heath loss in NZ to range from 23,300 to 36,900 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for the different unemployment scenarios. Health inequities would be increased with the per capita health loss for Maori (Indigenous population) estimated to be 3.7 times greater than for non-Maori (49.9 vs 13.5 HALYs lost per 1000 people). The estimated additional health system costs ranged between (NZ$303 million [m] to 503m in 2019 values; or US$209m to 346m). CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic could cause significant health loss, increase health inequities from CVD, and impose additional health system costs in this high-income country. Prevention measures should be considered by governments to reduce this risk, including additional job creation programs and measures directed towards the primary prevention of CVD.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Modelos Econômicos , Pandemias/economia , SARS-CoV-2 , Desemprego , COVID-19/complicações , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Nova Zelândia/epidemiologia
14.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0250938, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34014941

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic seems to be the most important phenomenon observed from March 2020 in virtually all countries of the world. The necessity to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and keep health care systems efficient resulted in the forced, drastic limitation of economic activity. Many service sectors were hit particularly hard with this but industry and agriculture were also affected. In particular, the pandemic substantially influenced financial markets and we can observe that some markets or instruments vary in stability since they have been affected in the different degree. In the paper, we present the problem of stability of stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the low number of works related to CEE countries during the pandemic, we analyze the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which is one of the most important markets in the CEE. Our main goal was to find how various industries represented by stock market indices have reacted to the COVID-19 shock and consequently which sectors turned out to keep stability and remained resistant to the pandemic. In our investigation, we use two clustering methods: the K-means and the Ward techniques with the criterion of maximizing the silhouette coefficient and six indicators describing stability in terms of profitability, volume, overbought/oversold conditions and volatility. The results of the research present that during the pandemic it was possible to identify 5 clusters of sector indices in the short term and 4 in the medium term. We found that the composition of the clusters is quite stable over time and that none of the obtained clusters can be univocally considered the most or the least stable taking into account all the analyzed indicators. However, we showed that the obtained clusters have different stability origins, i.e. they vary from each other in terms of the investigated indicators of stability.


Assuntos
COVID-19/economia , Comércio/economia , Investimentos em Saúde/economia , Pandemias/economia , Humanos , Modelos Econômicos
15.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0251715, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34019544

RESUMO

This paper explores to what extent product and marketing channel diversification contributed to the economic success of small-scale agricultural producers involved in short food supply chains after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. A survey was conducted between April and July 2020 in four countries of the European Union-Estonia, Hungary, Portugal and Romania,-resulting in a relatively large sample of farmers (N = 421). The analysis was built on a semi-nonparametric approach. Approximately 19 percent of small-scale producers were able to increase sales during the first wave of the pandemic, although country-level variation was significant. Fruits and vegetables were by far the most popular products. The importance of specific channels varied across countries, but farm gate sales were among the most important marketing channels both before and during the first wave. The importance of channels that were based on digital resources and home delivery increased. Our evidence indicates that diversification was a strategy that paid off, both in terms of marketing channels and different product categories. However, the impact appears to be nonlinear; the initial advantage generated by diversification rapidly tapered off, either temporarily (in the case of products), or permanently (in the case of marketing channels). Later research may clarify whether these findings are generalizable in other socio-economic contexts, as well as in a non-COVID situation.


Assuntos
Agricultura/métodos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Modelos Econômicos , Quarentena/economia , Agricultura/estatística & dados numéricos , COVID-19/economia , Europa (Continente) , Fazendeiros/psicologia , Humanos , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos , Inquéritos e Questionários
16.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0250112, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33945544

RESUMO

A COVID-19 vaccine is the key to beating the virus, and effective vaccines are going to be available in the near future. It is urgent to estimate the acceptability of COVID-19 vaccines and their value to individuals, in order to develop an effective public vaccination strategy. Based on a survey of 1,188 randomly selected respondents in China, we analyzed Chinese consumers' willingness to get a COVID-19 vaccine and their willingness to pay for it. We find that 79.41% of the respondents are willing to get vaccinated in China, and the average amount that they're willing to pay for a COVID-19 vaccine shot is 130.45 yuan. However, though the elderly are at higher risk of infection and the disease could be fatal for them, they are less willing to get the vaccine and not willing to pay as much for the shot. Subsidies and health communication concerning COVID-19 vaccines should be provided in order to expand vaccination coverage.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinação/economia , Adulto , COVID-19/virologia , Vacinas contra COVID-19/economia , China , Feminino , Humanos , Internet , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Econômicos , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Inquéritos e Questionários , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem
17.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(5)2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34039588

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Policy makers need to be rapidly informed about the potential equity consequences of different COVID-19 strategies, alongside their broader health and economic impacts. While there are complex models to inform both potential health and macro-economic impact, there are few tools available to rapidly assess potential equity impacts of interventions. METHODS: We created an economic model to simulate the impact of lockdown measures in Pakistan, Georgia, Chile, UK, the Philippines and South Africa. We consider impact of lockdown in terms of ability to socially distance, and income loss during lockdown, and tested the impact of assumptions on social protection coverage in a scenario analysis. RESULTS: In all examined countries, socioeconomic status (SES) quintiles 1-3 were disproportionately more likely to experience income loss (70% of people) and inability to socially distance (68% of people) than higher SES quintiles. Improving social protection increased the percentage of the workforce able to socially distance from 48% (33%-60%) to 66% (44%-71%). We estimate the cost of this social protection would be equivalent to an average of 0.6% gross domestic product (0.1% Pakistan-1.1% Chile). CONCLUSIONS: We illustrate the potential for using publicly available data to rapidly assess the equity implications of social protection and non-pharmaceutical intervention policy. Social protection is likely to mitigate inequitable health and economic impacts of lockdown. Although social protection is usually targeted to the poorest, middle quintiles will likely also need support as they are most likely to suffer income losses and are disproportionately more exposed.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Equidade em Saúde , Pobreza , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Chile/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Georgia/epidemiologia , Equidade em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Modelos Econômicos , Paquistão/epidemiologia , Filipinas/epidemiologia , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , África do Sul/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
18.
Nutrients ; 13(4)2021 Apr 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33917974

RESUMO

Efforts to address Micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) in lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been gaining pace in recent years. Commodities such as staple foods (e.g., cereals, roots, and tubers) and condiments (e.g., salt) have been targeted as 'vehicles' for fortification and biofortification through numerous projects and initiatives. To date, there have been mixed experiences with delivery and coverage with very little documented on the range of business models applied in different geographies, business conditions and polities and this makes classification and measurement of success and failure difficult. This research aims to address this gap in knowledge through proposing a typology that clarifies similarities (internal heterogeneity) and differences (external heterogeneity) between models and that can allow all types to be defined by the combination of attributes. Building on a comprehensive literature review; NVivo was used to code initiatives from 34 key references (955 cases in total) which have been grouped into 17 categories. Using non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) we find evidence of four business model groupings that typify fortification initiatives: (1) Large-scale private, unregulated, (2) Mixed-Scale, private, unregulated (3) Large-scale, public-private, regulated; and (4) Large-scale, private, regulated. We characterise these four groups with country examples and suggest that this typology can help the discourse around viability of food fortification initiatives.


Assuntos
Biofortificação , Alimentos Fortificados , Modelos Econômicos , Análise por Conglomerados , Países Desenvolvidos/economia , Países em Desenvolvimento/economia , Propriedade , Controle Social Formal
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